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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds TMay rated about the same as Major, ahead of Blai

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  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    ydoethur said:

    Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

    It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...
    Over-rated in my view. What's wrong with Brie?
    It's not as good as the Shire, it's got Big People living in it.
    I think the one called Alison is pretty sexy.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good news, that was the silliest and most unworkable bit of the Chequers proposal.

    At least Barnier is talking rather than clock-watching, let’s work out what the deal looks like and get on with it.
    Customs union it is.
    Why would we want to technically leave the EU only to tie ourselves up in its trade policy?
    What I struggle with all this “our own trade policy” flag waving is what would be actually be doing differently to the present EU approach? How great might the divergence actually be in practice?
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    Yep, any minute now the public will all decide that it's completely the EU's fault that we've spent two years proposing things that break their red lines and they haven't yet changed their minds.

    Noted elsewhere, the same people who tour the airwaves shouting about "reclaiming control of our laws, money and borders" are the same one incensed when the EU suggest they might want to do likewise
    Why does soon to be foreign power want to control our laws, borders and money?
    The EU? They don't.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,303
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

    It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...
    Over-rated in my view. What's wrong with Brie?
    It's not as good as the Shire, it's got Big People living in it.
    I think the one called Alison is pretty sexy.
    ??????

    Has SeanT hacked your account after imbibing something even stronger than usual?
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Vince Cable trying to dig himself out of a hole live on BBC News 24.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited July 2018
    tpfkar said:

    stodge said:

    Meanwhile, on the home front, Northamptonshire CC in the brown and smelly once again:

    https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2018/07/northamptonshire-issues-second-section-114-notice?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=

    I suspect this won't be the only local authority to need S114 intervention.

    May's absurd splurge on the NHS completely misses the point - it's local councils which look after vulnerable children and especially the elderly and vulnerable adults. Where is the money for them or is it all going on the NHS ?

    As an aside, public health is now the responsibility of local authorities, not the NHS so where is the funding to improve public health information?

    Public Health money should be ring-fenced, and one of the many problems at Northants is that they have had to pay back £8m of public health money that they'd spent elsewhere. Councillors and senior officers both totally asleep and assuming that something would come up. Well it hasn't and every other authority in the country has planned and managed better than they have.

    New chief exec starts next week and the Finance Director (151 officer) has already quit after only being in post for 7 months so zero stability at the top as well. Little blame that can be laid at his door, at least he's had the guts to declare (twice) the financial notice which previous postholders should have done. What a mess.
    Public Health money goes on tackling obesity, sexual health etc.

    It does not fund general social care - or children's services or support for adults below pensioner age with physical and learning disabilities. It is actually in those two areas where the biggest pressures are for councils as those clients or their parents don't have assets generally to fund their care so 100 per cent of the cost is borne by the council.
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Just been in rugby training for nearly two hours, coaching not running.
    Hot work. Young men are super fit these days though.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,793

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    May’s proposal to reintroduce fox hunting with a free vote was the single most viral topic of the 2017 election.

    It's the moment everything started to go horribly wrong.

    I thought it was the dementia tax proposal.
    Double whammy. Foxhunting killed any lingering chances of the youth voting Tory (they like animals) and the dementia tax killed the middle aged from voting tory (we want/need granny's house thanks).
    The main lesson for politicians is not to be honest during an election campaign in future. May was honest on everything and did badly.
    It wasn't honesty that drove May. The manifesto was a blank cheque she wrote herself.
    I hope May eventually publishes her memoirs.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    matt said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good news, that was the silliest and most unworkable bit of the Chequers proposal.

    At least Barnier is talking rather than clock-watching, let’s work out what the deal looks like and get on with it.
    Customs union it is.
    Why would we want to technically leave the EU only to tie ourselves up in its trade policy?
    What I struggle with all this “our own trade policy” flag waving is what would be actually be doing differently to the present EU approach? How great might the divergence actually be in practice?
    I think in practice it would be gradual and over time, and as much by not having to deal with new EU rules as by explicitly repealing existing rules. There’s a few quick wins, such as VAT on domestic fuel and tampons, and not being in the CAP and CET for agriculture means cheaper food imports from elsewhere for things we don’t produce ourselves.

    Our seat at the WTO also allows us to campaign for global product standards and free trade which benefits everyone. It would also allow the trade agreements we do sign to be better tailored to the British economy, as opposed to the EU third party agreements which tend to focus on food and cars but not financial services. A big US/UK trade deal is unlikely as it’s politically difficult on both sides, what’s more likely is a series of sectoral agreements on standards and tarrifs.
  • Options
    Acorn_AntiquesAcorn_Antiques Posts: 196
    edited July 2018

    AndyJS said:

    AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


    "Europe Elects
    @europeelects
    52m52 minutes ago

    Germany, YouGov subsamples:

    Best age group per party by %

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
    SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
    AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
    LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
    FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456
    Also from Europe Elects:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

    Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc in 1989, lest we forget. Four in ten now back far Right or ex-Communists (and the Centre-Left appears perilously close to being Pasokified to boot.)
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Wearing a black shirt to discusses antisemitism on Sky News is not a good look, Aaron Bastani ought to know better.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    edited July 2018

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    kle4 said:

    So we can stop pretending the eu can be comvinced and move on to no deal? No point even going the referendum route if no deal is going to even be provisionally agreed.
    Why not go for a slowish transition to CETA?

    The customs union doesn’t have a majority in Parliament. But leaving it does.
    Because that means a customs border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, and because it would decimate the economy.
    They should be selling tickets to watch Barnier, Junker and Varakdar trying to build a border across Ireland. It’s going to be very amusing to see them try.
    People will be too busy queuing for front row seats to watch parliament trying to pass legislation that would necessitate one.
    Except that:

    1. The legislation required for the UK to leave the EU has already been passed.

    2. The UK and the EU have very different ideas of what constitutes a border. We don’t really care what passes North, how efficient the technology is at collecting tarrifs or checking goods for compliance with standards.
    A customs border would be a requirement of WTO membership, no? However it's perfectly obvious that the EU likes a degree of protection and I've always found the 'we want control of our borders but not in Ireland' argument strange.
    Yes, but as it’s our only land border (and has a lot of bad history) an amount of fudge over the border would in practice be fine with us. It wouldn’t be fine with the EU though, who would want to see a fence and checkpoints.

    Fudged borders happen all over the world, most notably the US/Canada border which is mostly open, and the US/Mexico border where there’s currently a political row about building a wall.

    Also somewhat different in NI is the Common Travel Agreement between UK and RoI that means there’s no controls needed on people crossing the border, only on goods. When the EU talk about Freedom of Movement, they mean the entitlement to a national insurance number and the right to work and claim benefits and healthcare, as opposed to anything that happens at the physical border.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    AndyJS said:

    AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


    "Europe Elects
    @europeelects
    52m52 minutes ago

    Germany, YouGov subsamples:

    Best age group per party by %

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
    SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
    AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
    LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
    FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456
    Also from Europe Elects:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

    Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc in 1989, lest we forget. Four in ten now back far Right or ex-Communists (and the Centre-Left appears perilously close to being Pasokified to boot.)
    The centre left have been in coalition with the CDU now for several years, so it doesn’t surprise me that they are not doing so well. People who aren’t voting CDU are going to want some kind of alternative to them, and if you’re in government with them it’s hard to be that.

    Re East Germany, because they were under communism while the West was reflecting on its Nazi past, maybe that’s why they can vote Afd so easily - they didn’t go through that process of reflection.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    dr_spyn said:

    Wearing a black shirt to discusses antisemitism on Sky News is not a good look, Aaron Bastani ought to know better.

    Because it’s only slightly more subtle than a t-shirt with “I hate the Jews. So what?” emblazoned across the front of it?
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,793

    AndyJS said:

    AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


    "Europe Elects
    @europeelects
    52m52 minutes ago

    Germany, YouGov subsamples:

    Best age group per party by %

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
    SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
    AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
    LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
    FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456
    Also from Europe Elects:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

    Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc in 1989, lest we forget. Four in ten now back far Right or ex-Communists (and the Centre-Left appears perilously close to being Pasokified to boot.)
    1989 is actually quite a long time ago now in terms of politics. Merkel is in that group too.

    We might imagine that liberal democracy, with the slightest of touches of commercial imperialism mixed in, is the long-term resting state. Things may very well be otherwise.
  • Options
    brendan16 said:

    Public Health money goes on tackling obesity, sexual health etc.

    It does not fund general social care - or children's services or support for adults below pensioner age with physical and learning disabilities. It is actually in those two areas where the biggest pressures are for councils as those clients or their parents don't have assets generally to fund their care so 100 per cent of the cost is borne by the council.

    I seem to recall one of the London councils (I think it was either Brent or Barnet) warning a couple of years back that, if things didn't change radically, it would only be 10 or 15 years before all of its budget went on social care. There'd simply be nothing left for emptying the bins, running libraries and leisure centres, or anything else.

    But ultimately it's all part of the wider problem: the electorate doesn't want to choose between having a narrower range of services or paying a lot more tax. Everybody wants a pony, and everybody expects other people to pay for it: hence politicians always implement some fudged combination of half-measure cuts, stealth taxes and more borrowing. That's why our Governments all fail, and will continue to fail, until one is finally forced to grasp the nettle and choose between a Scandinavian and an American model.

    That administration will be utterly destroyed at the ballot box, but the one that comes immediately after it will probably do very well.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013

    AndyJS said:

    AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


    "Europe Elects
    @europeelects
    52m52 minutes ago

    Germany, YouGov subsamples:

    Best age group per party by %

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
    SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
    AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
    LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
    FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456
    Also from Europe Elects:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

    Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc in 1989, lest we forget. Four in ten now back far Right or ex-Communists (and the Centre-Left appears perilously close to being Pasokified to boot.)
    The funny bit, of course, is that if you looked around all the former Communist states - whether Russia, the ones that fell into its orbit, the ones who joined the EU, the ones with resources, and the ones without - you would struggle to find anywhere that had done as well as former East Germany.

    In fact the gap in wealth, employment, etc., between the East and West German Laander is smaller than the differences between the wealthy and the poorer parts of the UK. (Which, by the way, should be a source of enormous shame to us.)

    But this also tells us that there is more to the rise of parties of the far Left and Right than just economics.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,013

    AndyJS said:

    AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


    "Europe Elects
    @europeelects
    52m52 minutes ago

    Germany, YouGov subsamples:

    Best age group per party by %

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
    SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
    AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
    LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
    FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456
    Also from Europe Elects:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

    Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc in 1989, lest we forget. Four in ten now back far Right or ex-Communists (and the Centre-Left appears perilously close to being Pasokified to boot.)
    Just to add one thing: Linke (and its predecessor the PDS) have always been very strong in the former GDR. If you go back to the elections in the mid-90s, particularly the state elections, it would frequently pick up a quarter to a third of the votes.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,298

    AndyJS said:

    AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


    "Europe Elects
    @europeelects
    52m52 minutes ago

    Germany, YouGov subsamples:

    Best age group per party by %

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
    SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
    AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
    LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
    FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456
    Also from Europe Elects:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

    Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc in 1989, lest we forget. Four in ten now back far Right or ex-Communists (and the Centre-Left appears perilously close to being Pasokified to boot.)
    The centre left have been in coalition with the CDU now for several years, so it doesn’t surprise me that they are not doing so well. People who aren’t voting CDU are going to want some kind of alternative to them, and if you’re in government with them it’s hard to be that.

    Re East Germany, because they were under communism while the West was reflecting on its Nazi past, maybe that’s why they can vote Afd so easily - they didn’t go through that process of reflection.
    That comment reveals a certain ignorance of East German history. Read the third volume of Klemperer's diaries. After WWII the East put a lot more emphasis on overcoming its Nazi past, whilst in the west a lot of former Nazi party members were quietly allowed back into science, finance, industry and even areas of the public sector.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    The July CBI surveys for manufacturing and retail have been stronger than predicted:

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/manufacturing-output-picks-up-pace-but-investment-disappoints/

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/summer-sun-continues-to-shine-on-retailers-but-outlook-weaker/

    If next week's PMI data is also good then an interest rate rise seems likely.
  • Options
    Acorn_AntiquesAcorn_Antiques Posts: 196
    edited July 2018
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


    "Europe Elects
    @europeelects
    52m52 minutes ago

    Germany, YouGov subsamples:

    Best age group per party by %

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
    SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
    AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
    LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
    FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456
    Also from Europe Elects:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

    Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc in 1989, lest we forget. Four in ten now back far Right or ex-Communists (and the Centre-Left appears perilously close to being Pasokified to boot.)
    The centre left have been in coalition with the CDU now for several years, so it doesn’t surprise me that they are not doing so well. People who aren’t voting CDU are going to want some kind of alternative to them, and if you’re in government with them it’s hard to be that.

    Re East Germany, because they were under communism while the West was reflecting on its Nazi past, maybe that’s why they can vote Afd so easily - they didn’t go through that process of reflection.
    That comment reveals a certain ignorance of East German history. Read the third volume of Klemperer's diaries. After WWII the East put a lot more emphasis on overcoming its Nazi past, whilst in the west a lot of former Nazi party members were quietly allowed back into science, finance, industry and even areas of the public sector.
    My knowledge of German politics is limited, but I'm wondering if the increase in support for AfD is as much down to Merkel tacking leftwards as it is an expression of more radical sympathies? I have read that this has been suggested, and after all she's been in coalition with the social democrats for years, and appears content with the arrangement.

    If there's only one place left for right-wing voters to go then maybe some of them are bound to migrate there, even if the destination is perhaps more radical than they might otherwise consider?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    The Tesco Strawberry score has been running at a solid eight for the last four days and the quantity of display also seems to have increased.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,298

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


    "Europe Elects
    @europeelects
    52m52 minutes ago

    Germany, YouGov subsamples:

    Best age group per party by %

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
    SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
    AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
    LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
    FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456
    Also from Europe Elects:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

    Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc in 1989, lest we forget. Four in ten now back far Right or ex-Communists (and the Centre-Left appears perilously close to being Pasokified to boot.)
    The centre left have been in coalition with the CDU now for several years, so it doesn’t surprise me that they are not doing so well. People who aren’t voting CDU are going to want some kind of alternative to them, and if you’re in government with them it’s hard to be that.

    Re East Germany, because they were under communism while the West was reflecting on its Nazi past, maybe that’s why they can vote Afd so easily - they didn’t go through that process of reflection.
    That comment reveals a certain ignorance of East German history. Read the third volume of Klemperer's diaries. After WWII the East put a lot more emphasis on overcoming its Nazi past, whilst in the west a lot of former Nazi party members were quietly allowed back into science, finance, industry and even areas of the public sector.
    My knowledge of German politics is limited, but I'm wondering if the increase in support for AfD is as much down to Merkel tacking leftwards as it is an expression of more radical sympathies? I have read that this has been suggested, and after all he's been in coalition with the social democrats for years, and appears content with the arrangement.

    If there's only one place left for right-wing voters to go then maybe some of them are bound to migrate there, even if the destination is perhaps more radical than they might otherwise consider?
    Perhaps. Or a counter-reaction to having lived under communism. Or, most likely, simply demographics - the East in Germany is akin to our WWC areas of the north west and north east, where that type of politics most readily takes root.
  • Options

    The July CBI surveys for manufacturing and retail have been stronger than predicted:

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/manufacturing-output-picks-up-pace-but-investment-disappoints/

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/summer-sun-continues-to-shine-on-retailers-but-outlook-weaker/

    If next week's PMI data is also good then an interest rate rise seems likely.

    If you turn out to be right about interest rates then that would be good news. The sooner they go up, the better.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,793
    Sandpit said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Wearing a black shirt to discusses antisemitism on Sky News is not a good look, Aaron Bastani ought to know better.

    Because it’s only slightly more subtle than a t-shirt with “I hate the Jews. So what?” emblazoned across the front of it?
    Wouldn't simple matters such as whether you wear a shirt of a certain colour, or perhaps your skin is a certain colour be best left to the apes?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,907
    A very interesting discussion on tarrifs and trade, from Prof Vernon Smith talking to Kate Andrews at the IEA.
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=-oW6Ef0ALKo
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited July 2018
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


    "Europe Elects
    @europeelects
    52m52 minutes ago

    Germany, YouGov subsamples:

    Best age group per party by %

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
    SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
    AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
    LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
    FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456
    Also from Europe Elects:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

    Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc in 1989, lest we forget. Four in ten now back far Right or ex-Communists (and the Centre-Left appears perilously close to being Pasokified to boot.)
    The centre left have been in coalition with the CDU now for several years, so it doesn’t surprise me that they are not doing so well. People who aren’t voting CDU are going to want some kind of alternative to them, and if you’re in government with them it’s hard to be that.

    Re East Germany, because they were under communism while the West was reflecting on its Nazi past, maybe that’s why they can vote Afd so easily - they didn’t go through that process of reflection.
    That comment reveals a certain ignorance of East German history. Read the third volume of Klemperer's diaries. After WWII the East put a lot more emphasis on overcoming its Nazi past, whilst in the west a lot of former Nazi party members were quietly allowed back into science, finance, industry and even areas of the public sector.
    I was going on what I’ve read so far of this book: ‘EXORCISING HITLER The Occupation and Denazification of Germany’ by Frederick Taylor.

    This bit specifically: ‘Perhaps it was worse, because there was no 1960s, no younger generation asking awkward, often unfair questions of their elders, as there was in West Germany. East Germany claimed to have solved the national problem through communism, but in fact, after 1989, the bacillus of Nazism was found to have survived in far more virulent forms in the so-called ‘German Democratic Republic’ than in its capitalist-democratic competitor state.’ (p. xxxv)

    I’ve only started reading it this week.

    Edit: But I’ll make sure to read the third volume of Klemperer's diaries as well.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101

    Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

    It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...
    Playing up the possibility of a disaster is also a high-stakes gamble for the Continuity Remain tendency. If the No Deal Apocalypse comes to pass, and it turns out to manifest as a temporary shortage of lettuces, then what's left of their credibility will evaporate.
    Who can forget the global hummus shortage of 2018:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/29/global-hummus-shortage-prices-soar-third/

    or the global hummus shortage of 2017:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/29/hummus-crisis-sheds-light-on-secret-world-of-mass-food-production
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,298
    edited July 2018
    Pp

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


    "Europe Elects
    @europeelects
    52m52 minutes ago

    Germany, YouGov subsamples:

    Best age group per party by %

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
    SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
    AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
    LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
    FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456
    Also from Europe Elects:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

    Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc
    Re East Germany, because they were under communism while the West was reflecting on its Nazi past, maybe that’s why they can vote Afd so easily - they didn’t go through that process of reflection.
    That comment reveals a certain ignorance of East German history. Read the third volume of Klemperer's diaries. After WWII the East put a lot more emphasis on overcoming its Nazi past, whilst in the west a lot of former Nazi party members were quietly allowed back into science, finance, industry and even areas of the public sector.
    I was going on what I’ve read so far of this book: ‘EXORCISING HITLER The Occupation and Denazification of Germany’ by Frederick Taylor.

    This bit specifically: ‘Perhaps it was worse, because there was no 1960s, no younger generation asking awkward, often unfair questions of their elders, as there was in West Germany. East Germany claimed to have solved the national problem through communism, but in fact, after 1989, the bacillus of Nazism was found to have survived in far more virulent forms in the so-called ‘German Democratic Republic’ than in its capitalist-democratic competitor state.’ (p. xxxv)

    I’ve only started reading it this week.

    Edit: But I’ll make sure to read the third volume of Klemperer's diaries as well.
    Interesting. The perception from Klemperer was that, in the late 40s and 50s at least, there was a lot of emphasis in the east on de-nazification, identification and exclusion/punishment of former nazi party members, re-education sessions in schools and colleges, whereas in the West once Nuremberg was out of the way they just wanted to forget and move on, particularly as a lot of the former low level nazis had useful knowledge or skills
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

    It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...
    Over-rated in my view. What's wrong with Brie?
    It's not as good as the Shire, it's got Big People living in it.
    I think the one called Alison is pretty sexy.
    ??????

    Has SeanT hacked your account after imbibing something even stronger than usual?
    Alison Brie. Look her up, thank me later.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    IanB2 said:

    Pp

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


    "Europe Elects
    @europeelects
    52m52 minutes ago

    Germany, YouGov subsamples:

    Best age group per party by %

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
    SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
    AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
    LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
    FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456
    Also from Europe Elects:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

    Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc
    Re East Germany, because they were under communism while the West was reflecting on its Nazi past, maybe that’s why they can vote Afd so easily - they didn’t go through that process of reflection.
    That comment reveals a certain ignorance of East German history. Read the third volume of Klemperer's diaries. After WWII the East put a lot more emphasis on overcoming its Nazi past, whilst in the west a lot of former Nazi party members were quietly allowed back into science, finance, industry and even areas of the public sector.
    I was going on what I’ve read so far of this book: ‘EXORCISING HITLER The Occupation and Denazification of Germany’ by Frederick Taylor.

    This bit specifically: ‘Perhaps it was worse, because there was no 1960s, no younger generation asking awkward, often unfair questions of their elders, as there was in West Germany. East Germany claimed to have solved the national problem through communism, but in fact, after 1989, the bacillus of Nazism was found to have survived in far more virulent forms in the so-called ‘German Democratic Republic’ than in its capitalist-democratic competitor state.’ (p. xxxv)

    I’ve only started reading it this week.

    Edit: But I’ll make sure to read the third volume of Klemperer's diaries as well.
    Interesting. The perception from Klemperer was that, in the late 40s and 50s at least, there was a lot of emphasis in the east on de-nazification, identification and exclusion/punishment of former nazi party members, re-education sessions in schools and colleges, whereas in the West once Nuremberg was out of the way they just wanted to forget and move on, particularly as a lot of the former low level nazis had useful knowledge or skills
    Wow - thanks for that info. I might actually just go and try to get the third volume of Klemperer's diaries first before I continue with Taylor’s book now.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,303
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

    It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...
    Over-rated in my view. What's wrong with Brie?
    It's not as good as the Shire, it's got Big People living in it.
    I think the one called Alison is pretty sexy.
    ??????

    Has SeanT hacked your account after imbibing something even stronger than usual?
    Alison Brie. Look her up, thank me later.
    She looks nothing like a hobbit.

    As far as being 'pretty sexy' goes, I can only say de gustibus non est disputandum.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,303

    Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

    It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...
    Playing up the possibility of a disaster is also a high-stakes gamble for the Continuity Remain tendency. If the No Deal Apocalypse comes to pass, and it turns out to manifest as a temporary shortage of lettuces, then what's left of their credibility will evaporate.
    Who can forget the global hummus shortage of 2018:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/29/global-hummus-shortage-prices-soar-third/

    or the global hummus shortage of 2017:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/29/hummus-crisis-sheds-light-on-secret-world-of-mass-food-production
    Once you have tasted proper Israeli or Lebanese hummus, you no longer care whether there is a supply of liquefied cardboard in your local supermarket.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    ydoethur said:

    Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

    It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...
    Playing up the possibility of a disaster is also a high-stakes gamble for the Continuity Remain tendency. If the No Deal Apocalypse comes to pass, and it turns out to manifest as a temporary shortage of lettuces, then what's left of their credibility will evaporate.
    Who can forget the global hummus shortage of 2018:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/29/global-hummus-shortage-prices-soar-third/

    or the global hummus shortage of 2017:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/29/hummus-crisis-sheds-light-on-secret-world-of-mass-food-production
    Once you have tasted proper Israeli or Lebanese hummus, you no longer care whether there is a supply of liquefied cardboard in your local supermarket.
    It's all going to depend if replenishment convoys can make it through the Straits of Gibralter.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,667
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

    It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...
    Over-rated in my view. What's wrong with Brie?
    It's not as good as the Shire, it's got Big People living in it.
    I think the one called Alison is pretty sexy.
    ??????

    Has SeanT hacked your account after imbibing something even stronger than usual?
    Alison Brie. Look her up, thank me later.
    She looks nothing like a hobbit.

    As far as being 'pretty sexy' goes, I can only say de gustibus non est disputandum.
    She is, however, an excellent actress.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,303
    edited July 2018

    IanB2 said:

    Interesting. The perception from Klemperer was that, in the late 40s and 50s at least, there was a lot of emphasis in the east on de-nazification, identification and exclusion/punishment of former nazi party members, re-education sessions in schools and colleges, whereas in the West once Nuremberg was out of the way they just wanted to forget and move on, particularly as a lot of the former low level nazis had useful knowledge or skills

    Wow - thanks for that info. I might actually just go and try to get the third volume of Klemperer's diaries first before I continue with Taylor’s book now.
    That was the way the East Germans wished people to see it. It was not the reality. For example Vincenz Muller was a prominent officer in the Wehrmacht where he was a loyal Nazi, and a prominent figure in the DDR until his suicide in 1961 as a convinced communist.

    Indeed, it was the revival of denazification proceedings in the West in 1963-65 that spurred the DDR into action, including the very belated arrest of Horst Fischer:

    http://www.wollheim-memorial.de/en/nsstrafverfolgung_in_der_ddr_bis_zum_fischerprozess_1965
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,303
    John_M said:

    ydoethur said:

    Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

    It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...
    Playing up the possibility of a disaster is also a high-stakes gamble for the Continuity Remain tendency. If the No Deal Apocalypse comes to pass, and it turns out to manifest as a temporary shortage of lettuces, then what's left of their credibility will evaporate.
    Who can forget the global hummus shortage of 2018:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/29/global-hummus-shortage-prices-soar-third/

    or the global hummus shortage of 2017:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/29/hummus-crisis-sheds-light-on-secret-world-of-mass-food-production
    Once you have tasted proper Israeli or Lebanese hummus, you no longer care whether there is a supply of liquefied cardboard in your local supermarket.
    It's all going to depend if replenishment convoys can make it through the Straits of Gibralter.
    Almost all the hummus in this country is made in this country!
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    ydoethur said:

    John_M said:

    ydoethur said:

    Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

    It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...
    Playing up the possibility of a disaster is also a high-stakes gamble for the Continuity Remain tendency. If the No Deal Apocalypse comes to pass, and it turns out to manifest as a temporary shortage of lettuces, then what's left of their credibility will evaporate.
    Who can forget the global hummus shortage of 2018:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/29/global-hummus-shortage-prices-soar-third/

    or the global hummus shortage of 2017:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/29/hummus-crisis-sheds-light-on-secret-world-of-mass-food-production
    Once you have tasted proper Israeli or Lebanese hummus, you no longer care whether there is a supply of liquefied cardboard in your local supermarket.
    It's all going to depend if replenishment convoys can make it through the Straits of Gibralter.
    Almost all the hummus in this country is made in this country!
    Not the good stuff!
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Omnium said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    May’s proposal to reintroduce fox hunting with a free vote was the single most viral topic of the 2017 election.

    It's the moment everything started to go horribly wrong.

    I thought it was the dementia tax proposal.
    Double whammy. Foxhunting killed any lingering chances of the youth voting Tory (they like animals) and the dementia tax killed the middle aged from voting tory (we want/need granny's house thanks).
    The main lesson for politicians is not to be honest during an election campaign in future. May was honest on everything and did badly.
    It wasn't honesty that drove May. The manifesto was a blank cheque she wrote herself.
    I hope May eventually publishes her memoirs.
    If she does they should be published in Paperchase.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Interesting. The perception from Klemperer was that, in the late 40s and 50s at least, there was a lot of emphasis in the east on de-nazification, identification and exclusion/punishment of former nazi party members, re-education sessions in schools and colleges, whereas in the West once Nuremberg was out of the way they just wanted to forget and move on, particularly as a lot of the former low level nazis had useful knowledge or skills

    Wow - thanks for that info. I might actually just go and try to get the third volume of Klemperer's diaries first before I continue with Taylor’s book now.
    That was the way the East Germans wished people to see it. It was not the reality. For example Vincenz Muller was a prominent officer in the Wehrmacht where he was a loyal Nazi, and a prominent figure in the DDR until his suicide in 1961 as a convinced communist.

    Indeed, it was the revival of denazification proceedings in the West in 1963-65 that spurred the DDR into action, including the very belated arrest of Horst Fischer:

    http://www.wollheim-memorial.de/en/nsstrafverfolgung_in_der_ddr_bis_zum_fischerprozess_1965
    Thanks for that info - interesting to read the difference between the number and notoriety of trials in the East vs the West.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Omnium said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    May’s proposal to reintroduce fox hunting with a free vote was the single most viral topic of the 2017 election.

    It's the moment everything started to go horribly wrong.

    I thought it was the dementia tax proposal.
    Double whammy. Foxhunting killed any lingering chances of the youth voting Tory (they like animals) and the dementia tax killed the middle aged from voting tory (we want/need granny's house thanks).
    The main lesson for politicians is not to be honest during an election campaign in future. May was honest on everything and did badly.
    It wasn't honesty that drove May. The manifesto was a blank cheque she wrote herself.
    I hope May eventually publishes her memoirs.
    If she does they should be published in Paperchase.
    Come on, we already know everything about the woman. She likes cooking, because you get to make food and eat it, walking because you get to raise your legs and lower them and she once ran through a field of wheat.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    brendan16 said:

    Public Health money goes on tackling obesity, sexual health etc.

    It does not fund general social care - or children's services or support for adults below pensioner age with physical and learning disabilities. It is actually in those two areas where the biggest pressures are for councils as those clients or their parents don't have assets generally to fund their care so 100 per cent of the cost is borne by the council.

    I seem to recall one of the London councils (I think it was either Brent or Barnet) warning a couple of years back that, if things didn't change radically, it would only be 10 or 15 years before all of its budget went on social care. There'd simply be nothing left for emptying the bins, running libraries and leisure centres, or anything else.

    But ultimately it's all part of the wider problem: the electorate doesn't want to choose between having a narrower range of services or paying a lot more tax. Everybody wants a pony, and everybody expects other people to pay for it: hence politicians always implement some fudged combination of half-measure cuts, stealth taxes and more borrowing. That's why our Governments all fail, and will continue to fail, until one is finally forced to grasp the nettle and choose between a Scandinavian and an American model.

    That administration will be utterly destroyed at the ballot box, but the one that comes immediately after it will probably do very well.
    We spend about £60bn on tax credits and housing benefit - mostly for working age households - and only about £20bn on social care. Maybe if we spent more money on social care and affordable housing and less on funding the future pensions of buy to let landlords we might get somewhere.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,345
    ydoethur said:

    John_M said:

    ydoethur said:

    Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

    It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...
    Playing up the possibility of a disaster is also a high-stakes gamble for the Continuity Remain tendency. If the No Deal Apocalypse comes to pass, and it turns out to manifest as a temporary shortage of lettuces, then what's left of their credibility will evaporate.
    Who can forget the global hummus shortage of 2018:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/29/global-hummus-shortage-prices-soar-third/

    or the global hummus shortage of 2017:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/29/hummus-crisis-sheds-light-on-secret-world-of-mass-food-production
    Once you have tasted proper Israeli or Lebanese hummus, you no longer care whether there is a supply of liquefied cardboard in your local supermarket.
    It's all going to depend if replenishment convoys can make it through the Straits of Gibralter.
    Almost all the hummus in this country is made in this country!
    On the other hand, humus (one M!) is also a son of the "soil" :)
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    ydoethur said:

    John_M said:

    ydoethur said:

    Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

    It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...
    Playing up the possibility of a disaster is also a high-stakes gamble for the Continuity Remain tendency. If the No Deal Apocalypse comes to pass, and it turns out to manifest as a temporary shortage of lettuces, then what's left of their credibility will evaporate.
    Who can forget the global hummus shortage of 2018:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/29/global-hummus-shortage-prices-soar-third/

    or the global hummus shortage of 2017:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/29/hummus-crisis-sheds-light-on-secret-world-of-mass-food-production
    Once you have tasted proper Israeli or Lebanese hummus, you no longer care whether there is a supply of liquefied cardboard in your local supermarket.
    It's all going to depend if replenishment convoys can make it through the Straits of Gibralter.
    Almost all the hummus in this country is made in this country!
    British chickpeas for British hummus?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,345

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


    "Europe Elects
    @europeelects
    52m52 minutes ago

    Germany, YouGov subsamples:

    Best age group per party by %

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
    SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
    AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
    LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
    FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456
    Also from Europe Elects:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

    Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc in 1989, lest we forget. Four in ten now back far Right or ex-Communists (and the Centre-Left appears perilously close to being Pasokified to boot.)
    The centre left have been in coalition with the CDU now for several years, so it doesn’t surprise me that they are not doing so well. People who aren’t voting CDU are going to want some kind of alternative to them, and if you’re in government with them it’s hard to be that.

    Re East Germany, because they were under communism while the West was reflecting on its Nazi past, maybe that’s why they can vote Afd so easily - they didn’t go through that process of reflection.
    That comment reveals a certain ignorance of East German history. Read the third volume of Klemperer's diaries. After WWII the East put a lot more emphasis on overcoming its Nazi past, whilst in the west a lot of former Nazi party members were quietly allowed back into science, finance, industry and even areas of the public sector.
    I was going on what I’ve read so far of this book: ‘EXORCISING HITLER The Occupation and Denazification of Germany’ by Frederick Taylor.

    This bit specifically: ‘Perhaps it was worse, because there was no 1960s, no younger generation asking awkward, often unfair questions of their elders, as there was in West Germany. East Germany claimed to have solved the national problem through communism, but in fact, after 1989, the bacillus of Nazism was found to have survived in far more virulent forms in the so-called ‘German Democratic Republic’ than in its capitalist-democratic competitor state.’ (p. xxxv)

    I’ve only started reading it this week.

    Edit: But I’ll make sure to read the third volume of Klemperer's diaries as well.
    "We Germans are experts at forgetting. We forgot we were Nazis. Now we have forgotten 40 years of Communism - all gone!"
    - Bruno Ganz in the Liam Neeson movie "Unknown", 2011
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    Omnium said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    May’s proposal to reintroduce fox hunting with a free vote was the single most viral topic of the 2017 election.

    It's the moment everything started to go horribly wrong.

    I thought it was the dementia tax proposal.
    Double whammy. Foxhunting killed any lingering chances of the youth voting Tory (they like animals) and the dementia tax killed the middle aged from voting tory (we want/need granny's house thanks).
    The main lesson for politicians is not to be honest during an election campaign in future. May was honest on everything and did badly.
    It wasn't honesty that drove May. The manifesto was a blank cheque she wrote herself.
    I hope May eventually publishes her memoirs.
    She wouldn't get past choosing the font. How to appeal to those who like serifed fonts and those who prefer unserifed?


  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,501
    kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    May’s proposal to reintroduce fox hunting with a free vote was the single most viral topic of the 2017 election.

    It's the moment everything started to go horribly wrong.

    I thought it was the dementia tax proposal.
    Double whammy. Foxhunting killed any lingering chances of the youth voting Tory (they like animals) and the dementia tax killed the middle aged from voting tory (we want/need granny's house thanks).
    The main lesson for politicians is not to be honest during an election campaign in future. May was honest on everything and did badly.
    It wasn't honesty that drove May. The manifesto was a blank cheque she wrote herself.
    I hope May eventually publishes her memoirs.
    She wouldn't get past choosing the font. How to appeal to those who like serifed fonts and those who prefer unserifed?


    Comic sans would be appropriate.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,458

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


    "Europe Elects
    @europeelects
    52m52 minutes ago

    Germany, YouGov subsamples:

    Best age group per party by %

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
    SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
    AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
    LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
    FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456
    Also from Europe Elects:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

    Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc in 1989, lest we forget. Four in ten now back far Right or ex-Communists (and the Centre-Left appears perilously close to being Pasokified to boot.)
    The centre left have been in coalition with the CDU now for several years, so it doesn’t surprise me that they are not doing so well. People who aren’t voting CDU are going to want some kind of alternative to them, and if you’re in government with them it’s hard to be that.

    Re East Germany, because they were under communism while the West was reflecting on its Nazi past, maybe that’s why they can vote Afd so easily - they didn’t go through that process of reflection.
    :

    I was going on what I’ve read so far of this book: ‘EXORCISING HITLER The Occupation and Denazification of Germany’ by Frederick Taylor.

    This bit specifically: ‘Perhaps it was worse, because there was no 1960s, no younger generation asking awkward, often unfair questions of their elders, as there was in West Germany. East Germany claimed to have solved the national problem through communism, but in fact, after 1989, the bacillus of Nazism was found to have survived in far more virulent forms in the so-called ‘German Democratic Republic’ than in its capitalist-democratic competitor state.’ (p. xxxv)

    I’ve only started reading it this week.

    Edit: But I’ll make sure to read the third volume of Klemperer's diaries as well.
    "We Germans are experts at forgetting. We forgot we were Nazis. Now we have forgotten 40 years of Communism - all gone!"
    - Bruno Ganz in the Liam Neeson movie "Unknown", 2011
    East Germany in general sold the line that all the Nazis were in West Germany, running it from behind the scenes... The East Bloc states (Russia included) in general went for the line that "since we are Communist, we aren't racist, sexist etc."

    Yet, strangely....
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980
    kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    May’s proposal to reintroduce fox hunting with a free vote was the single most viral topic of the 2017 election.

    It's the moment everything started to go horribly wrong.

    I thought it was the dementia tax proposal.
    Double whammy. Foxhunting killed any lingering chances of the youth voting Tory (they like animals) and the dementia tax killed the middle aged from voting tory (we want/need granny's house thanks).
    The main lesson for politicians is not to be honest during an election campaign in future. May was honest on everything and did badly.
    It wasn't honesty that drove May. The manifesto was a blank cheque she wrote herself.
    I hope May eventually publishes her memoirs.
    She wouldn't get past choosing the font. How to appeal to those who like serifed fonts and those who prefer unserifed?


    How about we have controlled divergence, starting with serif at the start, but gradually phasing them out (vowels first, then consonants)?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980
    Are these in 2018 dollars? Adjusting for inflation, Microsoft's is bigger.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    She wouldn't get past choosing the font. How to appeal to those who like serifed fonts and those who prefer unserifed?

    She doedn't care about unserifed.

    Serifed mean Serifed!

    It's the will of the people...
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,458

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    kle4 said:

    So we can stop pretending the eu can be comvinced and move on to no deal? No point even going the referendum route if no deal is going to even be provisionally agreed.
    Why not go for a slowish transition to CETA?

    The customs union doesn’t have a majority in Parliament. But leaving it does.
    Because that means a customs border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, and because it would decimate the economy.
    They should be selling tickets to watch Barnier, Junker and Varakdar trying to build a border across Ireland. It’s going to be very amusing to see them try.
    People will be too busy queuing for front row seats to watch parliament trying to pass legislation that would necessitate one.
    Except that:

    1. The legislation required for the UK to leave the EU has already been passed.

    2. The UK and the EU have very different ideas of what constitutes a border. We don’t really care what passes North, how efficient the technology is at collecting tarrifs or checking goods for compliance with standards.
    A customs border would be a requirement of WTO membership, no? However it's perfectly obvious that the EU likes a degree of protection and I've always found the 'we want control of our borders but not in Ireland' argument strange.
    It's really very simple - no border between NI and Ireland is what the locals all want. The border control is already at the ferry/airport from NI to the mainland.

    A society full of sociopathic, religiously motivated, gangster terrorists is hardly likely to appeal to anyone from... ISIS, probably
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980

    kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    May’s proposal to reintroduce fox hunting with a free vote was the single most viral topic of the 2017 election.

    It's the moment everything started to go horribly wrong.

    I thought it was the dementia tax proposal.
    Double whammy. Foxhunting killed any lingering chances of the youth voting Tory (they like animals) and the dementia tax killed the middle aged from voting tory (we want/need granny's house thanks).
    The main lesson for politicians is not to be honest during an election campaign in future. May was honest on everything and did badly.
    It wasn't honesty that drove May. The manifesto was a blank cheque she wrote herself.
    I hope May eventually publishes her memoirs.
    She wouldn't get past choosing the font. How to appeal to those who like serifed fonts and those who prefer unserifed?


    Comic sans would be appropriate.
    Still can't believe that the presentation where they announced the discovery of the Higgs Boson with the LHC was in Comic sans.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    Most of those companies are doing just fine now, I assume Facebook will as well.

    It was a little odd at the cinema the other day seeing a Facebook ad seemingly about not harvesting or misusing customer data (it's a bit of a blur to me now) as I thought harvesting personal info to be of use to advertisers was their whole deal.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,501
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    May’s proposal to reintroduce fox hunting with a free vote was the single most viral topic of the 2017 election.

    It's the moment everything started to go horribly wrong.

    I thought it was the dementia tax proposal.
    Double whammy. Foxhunting killed any lingering chances of the youth voting Tory (they like animals) and the dementia tax killed the middle aged from voting tory (we want/need granny's house thanks).
    The main lesson for politicians is not to be honest during an election campaign in future. May was honest on everything and did badly.
    It wasn't honesty that drove May. The manifesto was a blank cheque she wrote herself.
    I hope May eventually publishes her memoirs.
    She wouldn't get past choosing the font. How to appeal to those who like serifed fonts and those who prefer unserifed?


    Comic sans would be appropriate.
    Still can't believe that the presentation where they announced the discovery of the Higgs Boson with the LHC was in Comic sans.
    I once received a CV in Comic Sans.
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    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Public Health money goes on tackling obesity, sexual health etc.

    It does not fund general social care - or children's services or support for adults below pensioner age with physical and learning disabilities. It is actually in those two areas where the biggest pressures are for councils as those clients or their parents don't have assets generally to fund their care so 100 per cent of the cost is borne by the council.

    I seem to recall one of the London councils (I think it was either Brent or Barnet) warning a couple of years back that, if things didn't change radically, it would only be 10 or 15 years before all of its budget went on social care. There'd simply be nothing left for emptying the bins, running libraries and leisure centres, or anything else.

    But ultimately it's all part of the wider problem: the electorate doesn't want to choose between having a narrower range of services or paying a lot more tax. Everybody wants a pony, and everybody expects other people to pay for it: hence politicians always implement some fudged combination of half-measure cuts, stealth taxes and more borrowing. That's why our Governments all fail, and will continue to fail, until one is finally forced to grasp the nettle and choose between a Scandinavian and an American model.

    That administration will be utterly destroyed at the ballot box, but the one that comes immediately after it will probably do very well.
    We spend about £60bn on tax credits and housing benefit - mostly for working age households - and only about £20bn on social care. Maybe if we spent more money on social care and affordable housing and less on funding the future pensions of buy to let landlords we might get somewhere.
    Fixing our chronic housing problem is an essential task - if only our leaders would make a serious attempt at it - but it will take a long time and be hugely expensive in and of itself.

    The fundamental issue remains, therefore, unresolved. The current economic model isn't working, but nobody seems to have the will to fix it. In this case, both politicians and the electorate are complicit.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,458

    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Public Health money goes on tackling obesity, sexual health etc.

    It does not fund general social care - or children's services or support for adults below pensioner age with physical and learning disabilities. It is actually in those two areas where the biggest pressures are for councils as those clients or their parents don't have assets generally to fund their care so 100 per cent of the cost is borne by the council.

    I seem to recall one of the London councils (I think it was either Brent or Barnet) warning a couple of years back that, if things didn't change radically, it would only be 10 or 15 years before all of its budget went on social care. There'd simply be nothing left for emptying the bins, running libraries and leisure centres, or anything else.

    But ultimately it's all part of the wider problem: the electorate doesn't want to choose between having a narrower range of services or paying a lot more tax. Everybody wants a pony, and everybody expects other people to pay for it: hence politicians always implement some fudged combination of half-measure cuts, stealth taxes and more borrowing. That's why our Governments all fail, and will continue to fail, until one is finally forced to grasp the nettle and choose between a Scandinavian and an American model.

    That administration will be utterly destroyed at the ballot box, but the one that comes immediately after it will probably do very well.
    We spend about £60bn on tax credits and housing benefit - mostly for working age households - and only about £20bn on social care. Maybe if we spent more money on social care and affordable housing and less on funding the future pensions of buy to let landlords we might get somewhere.
    Fixing our chronic housing problem is an essential task - if only our leaders would make a serious attempt at it - but it will take a long time and be hugely expensive in and of itself.

    The fundamental issue remains, therefore, unresolved. The current economic model isn't working, but nobody seems to have the will to fix it. In this case, both politicians and the electorate are complicit.
    The problem is a religious belief that Human Are Evul, All their Works Are Evul and the only Good Thing is less facilities for humans.

    Strangely the strongest holders of these beliefs also believe that Unlimited Immigration Is An Unlimited Good Thing.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,458
    kle4 said:

    Most of those companies are doing just fine now, I assume Facebook will as well.

    It was a little odd at the cinema the other day seeing a Facebook ad seemingly about not harvesting or misusing customer data (it's a bit of a blur to me now) as I thought harvesting personal info to be of use to advertisers was their whole deal.
    The questions for the value of a stock long term are these - what is the profit margin on what is being sold, how many units are they selling & how much more or less are they likely to sell.

    Dividing the value of Facebook by the number of customers is interesting - can they really be selling the data per person for that much?
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,957
    kle4 said:

    Most of those companies are doing just fine now, I assume Facebook will as well.

    It was a little odd at the cinema the other day seeing a Facebook ad seemingly about not harvesting or misusing customer data (it's a bit of a blur to me now) as I thought harvesting personal info to be of use to advertisers was their whole deal.
    Never believe anything until it's been officially denied...
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,345
    kle4 said:

    Most of those companies are doing just fine now, I assume Facebook will as well.

    It was a little odd at the cinema the other day seeing a Facebook ad seemingly about not harvesting or misusing customer data (it's a bit of a blur to me now) as I thought harvesting personal info to be of use to advertisers was their whole deal.
    Just saw that ad on TV - on Film4 during Rogue Nation.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Normally avoid Heathrow, but on the right day, in the right seat, that final approach is spectacular.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,637
    kle4 said:

    Omnium said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    May’s proposal to reintroduce fox hunting with a free vote was the single most viral topic of the 2017 election.

    It's the moment everything started to go horribly wrong.

    I thought it was the dementia tax proposal.
    Double whammy. Foxhunting killed any lingering chances of the youth voting Tory (they like animals) and the dementia tax killed the middle aged from voting tory (we want/need granny's house thanks).
    The main lesson for politicians is not to be honest during an election campaign in future. May was honest on everything and did badly.
    It wasn't honesty that drove May. The manifesto was a blank cheque she wrote herself.
    I hope May eventually publishes her memoirs.
    She wouldn't get past choosing the font. How to appeal to those who like serifed fonts and those who prefer unserifed?


    She'd pull a contorted face and say something like 'I like all kinds of fonts. I use fonts all the time. I will use a font when I sign the order to bomb so-called ISIS positions in Syria. Enjoy the summer holidays.'
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,637
    Jonathan said:

    Normally avoid Heathrow, but on the right day, in the right seat, that final approach is spectacular.

    Looking down on all of the illegally built 'sheds with beds' in Hounslow?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Normally avoid Heathrow, but on the right day, in the right seat, that final approach is spectacular.

    Looking down on all of the illegally built 'sheds with beds' in Hounslow?

    Jonathan said:

    Normally avoid Heathrow, but on the right day, in the right seat, that final approach is spectacular.

    Looking down on all of the illegally built 'sheds with beds' in Hounslow?
    Not quite.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.
  • Options

    kle4 said:

    Most of those companies are doing just fine now, I assume Facebook will as well.

    It was a little odd at the cinema the other day seeing a Facebook ad seemingly about not harvesting or misusing customer data (it's a bit of a blur to me now) as I thought harvesting personal info to be of use to advertisers was their whole deal.
    Just saw that ad on TV - on Film4 during Rogue Nation.
    Facebook has been running this ad (or something very like it, anyway) on TV for some weeks:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4zd7X98eOs

    Although, frankly, why one should feel moral outrage about violations of privacy against people who choose to broadcast the minutiae of their personal lives on a website (and one which makes its money by using their own data to feed them targeted adverts to boot) is beyond me.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820

    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

    I think it's because pretty much everybody expected it. Chequers was already dead.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

    Is it news?
  • Options

    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

    Possibly because it has already been taken as a given that the EU would reject whatever Theresa May's plans were regardless?

    I doubt that the timing of the Parliamentary recess entered Monsieur Barnier's mind, frankly.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,501

    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

    It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820

    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

    It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.
    People were already saying it was dead before then, don't give too much credit to the ERG.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    Are these in 2018 dollars? Adjusting for inflation, Microsoft's is bigger.
    As is Intel's.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

    Possibly because it has already been taken as a given that the EU would reject whatever Theresa May's plans were regardless?

    I doubt that the timing of the Parliamentary recess entered Monsieur Barnier's mind, frankly.
    Not sure. It was noticeable how quiet Barnier et al were after Davis resigned. A choice word from them there could have been enough to see the tipping point reached. So they have waited for the storm to pass.

    Barnier et al know May is weak and will given them what they want. They don't want her gone.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820

    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

    Possibly because it has already been taken as a given that the EU would reject whatever Theresa May's plans were regardless?

    I doubt that the timing of the Parliamentary recess entered Monsieur Barnier's mind, frankly.
    Not sure. It was noticeable how quiet Barnier et al were after Davis resigned. A choice word from them there could have been enough to see the tipping point reached. So they have waited for the storm to pass.

    Barnier et al know May is weak and will given them what they want. They don't want her gone.
    May has no power to give them what they want, she wasn't bluffing (indeed, she couldn't even maintain her own proposal for a week), so if that is their gamble they will be disappointed.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980

    RobD said:

    Are these in 2018 dollars? Adjusting for inflation, Microsoft's is bigger.
    As is Intel's.
    Ah, I meant Intel. I think Microsoft's is just a touch lower.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

    It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...
    Over-rated in my view. What's wrong with Brie?
    It's not as good as the Shire, it's got Big People living in it.
    I think the one called Alison is pretty sexy.
    ??????

    Has SeanT hacked your account after imbibing something even stronger than usual?
    Alison Brie. Look her up, thank me later.
    "Annie's pretty young, we try not to sexualise her"
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,996
    kle4 said:

    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

    It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.
    People were already saying it was dead before then, don't give too much credit to the ERG.
    In the Withdrawal Agreement, it's going to be EEA+CU (but using different terminology).

    When it comes to the meaningful vote, it will be something like 250 for, 75 against, 300 abstentions.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

    It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.
    People were already saying it was dead before then, don't give too much credit to the ERG.
    In the Withdrawal Agreement, it's going to be EEA+CU (but using different terminology).

    When it comes to the meaningful vote, it will be something like 250 for, 75 against, 300 abstentions.
    I don't have a problem generally with an abstention, but on such a significant issue so many would be such a piss take.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980

    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

    It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.
    From Barnier's comments it was dead long before that.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,501
    kle4 said:

    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

    It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.
    People were already saying it was dead before then, don't give too much credit to the ERG.
    It was the coup de grâce.
  • Options
    Not a matter of concern. Even if there's no deal AND the apocalyptic scare stories actually turn out to have some validity this time around, we're not about to starve to death. Besides anything else a lot of the neighbours own cats and I'm sure I can fashion some sort of rudimentary net with which to capture them.

    Although if it does look like no deal then I may also dust off my Emergency Corbyn Government Readiness List and buy some of the essentials. There's not that much room for hoarding in Chez Overall, but I think I can find space for three dozen luxury loo rolls, a couple of cases of Rioja, some basic medicines and, say, about 10kg of good quality chocolate. Sorted.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820

    kle4 said:

    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

    It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.
    People were already saying it was dead before then, don't give too much credit to the ERG.
    It was the coup de grâce.
    In which case it was already dying, and it actually hardly mattered that the ERG did anything.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Not a matter of concern. Even if there's no deal AND the apocalyptic scare stories actually turn out to have some validity this time around, we're not about to starve to death. Besides anything else a lot of the neighbours own cats and I'm sure I can fashion some sort of rudimentary net with which to capture them.

    Although if it does look like no deal then I may also dust off my Emergency Corbyn Government Readiness List and buy some of the essentials. There's not that much room for hoarding in Chez Overall, but I think I can find space for three dozen luxury loo rolls, a couple of cases of Rioja, some basic medicines and, say, about 10kg of good quality chocolate. Sorted.
    Don't drink Cat milk.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,501
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

    It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.
    People were already saying it was dead before then, don't give too much credit to the ERG.
    It was the coup de grâce.
    In which case it was already dying, and it actually hardly mattered that the ERG did anything.
    It did matter it showed many, including the EU, that Mrs May isn't serious and a hostage of the ERG.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

    It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.
    People were already saying it was dead before then, don't give too much credit to the ERG.
    It was the coup de grâce.
    In which case it was already dying, and it actually hardly mattered that the ERG did anything.
    It did matter it showed many, including the EU, that Mrs May isn't serious and a hostage of the ERG.
    She is, but a mercy blow indicates mercy was required, eg the subject was already terminal, therefore it already had no chance.

    As for showing the EU she was not serious, I don't see how that is true. It was widely reported the EU would not be able to accept Chequers as was anyway, so they would insist in further bending, and she was stating she could not do so. In that she was correct, as bending even as far as Chequers was too much.

    But since the EU wasn't going to accept Chequers anyway, then as stupid as declaring a final position then backsliding because of the ERG was, I fail to see what impact it actually had on the negotiations. The EU were going to demand more, May was never going to be able to offer them more, so that she backslid to the ERG didn't affect its chances.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    At least we now know why the Tories wanted to bring back hunting.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,996
    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

    Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

    Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

    It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.
    People were already saying it was dead before then, don't give too much credit to the ERG.
    In the Withdrawal Agreement, it's going to be EEA+CU (but using different terminology).

    When it comes to the meaningful vote, it will be something like 250 for, 75 against, 300 abstentions.
    I don't have a problem generally with an abstention, but on such a significant issue so many would be such a piss take.
    Labour, SNP and LD will feel unable to vote for it (for different reasons) but will not want to force a no deal with uncontrollable consequences by voting against it.

    It's conceivable that the Labour strategy will be to vote against it in the hope of exploiting the chaos and getting a general election. But I doubt that they would get a majority in those circumstances.

    Abstentions wouldn't be a piss take but the result of careful deliberations and calculations.

    I think the Withdrawal Agreement will pass and we will easily complete the negotiation on EEA/CU on time by end 2021.
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    Jonathan said:

    Not a matter of concern. Even if there's no deal AND the apocalyptic scare stories actually turn out to have some validity this time around, we're not about to starve to death. Besides anything else a lot of the neighbours own cats and I'm sure I can fashion some sort of rudimentary net with which to capture them.

    Although if it does look like no deal then I may also dust off my Emergency Corbyn Government Readiness List and buy some of the essentials. There's not that much room for hoarding in Chez Overall, but I think I can find space for three dozen luxury loo rolls, a couple of cases of Rioja, some basic medicines and, say, about 10kg of good quality chocolate. Sorted.
    Don't drink Cat milk.
    Oh come on, be serious! I'm not going to milk the things, now am I?

    I was thinking more along the lines of a casserole.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Not a matter of concern. Even if there's no deal AND the apocalyptic scare stories actually turn out to have some validity this time around, we're not about to starve to death. Besides anything else a lot of the neighbours own cats and I'm sure I can fashion some sort of rudimentary net with which to capture them.

    Although if it does look like no deal then I may also dust off my Emergency Corbyn Government Readiness List and buy some of the essentials. There's not that much room for hoarding in Chez Overall, but I think I can find space for three dozen luxury loo rolls, a couple of cases of Rioja, some basic medicines and, say, about 10kg of good quality chocolate. Sorted.
    Don't drink Cat milk.
    Oh come on, be serious! I'm not going to milk the things, now am I?

    I was thinking more along the lines of a casserole.
    Served with some nice homemade cats milk cheese?
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited July 2018
    o/t anyone else think this is the best political tv theme tune ever?

    https://youtu.be/95qLDc7zwYY
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,980
    kjohnw said:

    o/t anyone else think this is the best political tv theme tune ever?

    youtu.be/95qLDc7zwYY

    The old BBC election intro theme was also good.
This discussion has been closed.