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Interesting that calling the issue food security, as some media is doing, rather than food shortages might easily take the sting out of the situation.

MikeSmithson said:

SquareRoot said:

This thread reminds me of Brown.. back in the day, everyone or pretty much everyone(including me) was predicting that Brown would be out, but it didn't happen. If it didn't happen to someone who really ought to have been summarily got rid of, its unlikely to happen to May, unless the Tories think they will lose the next election in which case she wall be booted. on this matter the Tories are ruthless. We are a long way from the next election IMHO>

Good analysis. The provisions of the fixed term Parliament Act make an early General Election very very difficult and the chances are that the Tories will hang on until 2022 which is an awful long way off. The political world could change dramatically in the ensuing.

Corbyn will be 73 in 2022. Cable would be approaching 80. If the election is really that date, surely we will see new leaders for all parties? (I'm assuming May will be ditched by next summer at the latest, even with her limpet like qualities.)

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, must've taken some foresight to pick the only day in two months when substantial rainfall is expected for a charity cricket match... hope you're spared the sogginess, for a while.

It’s been planned for a long while! Might, of course, have to hide in the beer tent. Ah, calamity!

So at least if it's wet, you won't have to stay dry?

(Hope it doesn't rain. In my experience the last few weeks every time they've forecast rain, sometimes even when it's put on the radar screen at the time it's happening, it's been dry.)

Both the BBC and Accuweather give a good chance of rain, sadly. However the latter gives it as most likely before the game starts and there’s an excellent, although largely amateur ground staff.

Mr. Doethur, at school, the teachers had a brilliant idea of pairing up hard-working and lazier pupils as they thought the good habits might rub off on the bad ones.

Well, you can imagine how that worked out.

On topic, can I point out that at the end of last year when I predicted that all the party leaders would remain in position for 2018 I received a lot of comments about how timid a prediction that was?

https://twitter.com/badmachinery/status/1021710586843942912?s=21

MikeSmithson said:

ydoethur said:

MikeSmithson said:

SquareRoot said:

This thread reminds me of Brown.. back in the day, everyone or pretty much everyone(including me) was predicting that Brown would be out, but it didn't happen. If it didn't happen to someone who really ought to have been summarily got rid of, its unlikely to happen to May, unless the Tories think they will lose the next election in which case she wall be booted. on this matter the Tories are ruthless. We are a long way from the next election IMHO>

Good analysis. The provisions of the fixed term Parliament Act make an early General Election very very difficult and the chances are that the Tories will hang on until 2022 which is an awful long way off. The political world could change dramatically in the ensuing.

Corbyn will be 73 in 2022. Cable would be approaching 80. If the election is really that date, surely we will see new leaders for all parties? (I'm assuming May will be ditched by next summer at the latest, even with her limpet like qualities.)

Just how are the Tories going to ditch her? The figure that we should be looking at is not just the 48 letters going into the chairman of the 1922 committee asking for a confidence motion but 155 the required total, if all MPs vote, for that confidence motion to go against her. Situation only gets dangerous for Mrs May if her successor becomes obvious because of wide support within the parliamentary party. That simply does not exist at the moment

Theresa May would surely lose any vote of no confidence. The only thing that unites the Conservative Party is contempt for the prime minister. Your point about the lack of an obvious successor is why no-one dares trigger a vote of no confidence: the wrong faction might get in and be set for the next decade. But if they did, May would lose. If Theresa May thought for a minute she'd win, she'd follow John Major and call one herself.

DecrepitJohnL said:

If Theresa May thought for a minute she'd win, she'd follow John Major and call one herself.

She can't. The rules have changed.

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/badmachinery/status/1021710586843942912?s=21

Not even accurate, as Wales voted out. I know Carwyn Jones grumbles but he's out in two months anyway (looks like Drakeford will replace him).

AlastairMeeks said:

TOPPING said:

Interesting that calling the issue food security, as some media is doing, rather than food shortages might easily take the sting out of the situation.

To be filed alongside “world trade deal”.

https://twitter.com/TheAndyMaturin/status/1021848759100223489

ydoethur said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/badmachinery/status/1021710586843942912?s=21

Not even accurate, as Wales voted out. I know Carwyn Jones grumbles but he's out in two months anyway (looks like Drakeford will replace him).

You pick that out as the most noteworthy point?

Me, I'm most interested in the blue highlighter. Clearly there is a tune to go with these lyrics, a choral society lined up to sing it and Nancy is being pencilled in for a solo - lucky Nancy.

I'm unclear about the meaning of "Upminster?" My early thoughts is that it is a reference to the tube map and Thomasina is eight stops beyond Barking.

The Chequers motion has been amended and as expected, the EU isn't interested in it anyway. I'm not sure where it's going now.

Dura_Ace said:

FPT on Type 31e... This is classic MoD bait and switch.

The RN actual gave up 2 x T45 (hulls #7 and #8) so that they could have 18 x FSC (as T26 was known at the time) comprising 10 x ASW and 8 x General Purpose. As the program progressed this was reduced by the tories to 13 x T26 (8 x ASW, 5 x GP) to 8 x T26 and 5 x T31 (ebay version of T26). Now T31 has been "suspended" (ie cancelled) we're left with the 8 x T26. Even if the RN get all 8, which is doubtful, that will leave the RN with an escort fleet of 14 ships!

But remember you can't trust Labour on defence...

Allowing for the fact that the Type 45's engines don't work, and the RFA is being gutted again, how many RN surface vessels are actually going to be deployable?

felix said:

IanB2 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It will be raining soon enough and soon enough everyone will be complaining about the dismal weather. Enjoy the sun while you can.

After a long hot summer the odds are certainly on a stormy autumn when we will all get drenched.

Meanwhile the rain we should normally be getting appears to be in northern Spain and the south east Med

Certainly not here in SE SPAIN - we're having a normal summer, hot, sunny and no rain. We have an average 320+ sunny days each year. Paradise !

There are positive rain anomalies for last month in Galicia, northern Portugal and SW France

Very sad events in Greece.

Interesting interview with John McDonnell on Radio 4 where he didn’t really deny very effectively that Labour’s economic programme was a British version of Trump’s America First.

And this is quite interesting on Corbyn’s approach - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/jeremy-corbyns-obsession-with-antizionism-is-poisoning-labour-srj2wgvlk. McDonnell sounded embarrassed by it all.

Despite myself and despite not trusting him an iota, I find myself preferring McDonnell to Corbyn. At least you know you are dealing with the political equivalent of one of those corrupt 1970’s Met detectives. Whereas Corbyn’s unjustified self-righteousness grates.

Scott_P said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TOPPING said:

Interesting that calling the issue food security, as some media is doing, rather than food shortages might easily take the sting out of the situation.

To be filed alongside “world trade deal”.

https://twitter.com/TheAndyMaturin/status/1021848759100223489

Or you have the money and space to be able to do so.

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

If Theresa May thought for a minute she'd win, she'd follow John Major and call one herself.

She can't. The rules have changed.

She can call a vote of no confidence. She simply asks MPs to submit letters with her blessing.

She’s have to be awfully confident to go down that route, as once letter 48 is delivered the process is completely out of her control. If she resigns or loses a VoNC she can’t stand in the resultant contest.

AlastairMeeks said:

ydoethur said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/badmachinery/status/1021710586843942912?s=21

Not even accurate, as Wales voted out. I know Carwyn Jones grumbles but he's out in two months anyway (looks like Drakeford will replace him).

You pick that out as the most noteworthy point?

Me, I'm most interested in the blue highlighter. Clearly there is a tune to go with these lyrics, a choral society lined up to sing it and Nancy is being pencilled in for a solo - lucky Nancy.

I'm unclear about the meaning of "Upminster?" My early thoughts is that it is a reference to the tube map and Thomasina is eight stops beyond Barking.

Twitter is saying that Upminster is a psalm tune, which would make sense.

AlastairMeeks said:

It will be raining soon enough and soon enough everyone will be complaining about the dismal weather. Enjoy the sun while you can.

I've been invited to an open-air play in Regent's Park on Friday evening. Weather forecast: 32 degrees, 60% chance of thunderstorm. What the hell do I wear?

And by the way a blood moon, which sounds quite fun:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jul/25/blood-moon-all-you-need-to-know-about-this-weeks-lunar-eclipse

Dura_Ace said:

FPT on Type 31e... This is classic MoD bait and switch.

The RN actual gave up 2 x T45 (hulls #7 and #8) so that they could have 18 x FSC (as T26 was known at the time) comprising 10 x ASW and 8 x General Purpose. As the program progressed this was reduced by the tories to 13 x T26 (8 x ASW, 5 x GP) to 8 x T26 and 5 x T31 (ebay version of T26). Now T31 has been "suspended" (ie cancelled) we're left with the 8 x T26. Even if the RN get all 8, which is doubtful, that will leave the RN with an escort fleet of 14 ships!

But remember you can't trust Labour on defence...

I’m not sure either party can be trusted on defence.

The Tories were good on defence in the early 1980s, investing properly, but have not impressed since the end of the Cold War.

Labour did a good job with the 1998 sdr and then comprehensively failed to fund it properly whilst making salami slices and adding new commitments all the way to 2010.

SouthamObserver said:

That was one hot sticky night.
Rain, a hearfelt message from us to you:
We were wrong to be so unkind about you. We took you for granted. All we did was complain. But now we realise we can’t live without you. We are half of what we should be. Please come home.
Love, the UK x

Ps

Bring your friend, cold air , with you as well. I'm sorry we said he was a jerk.

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

Very sad events in Greece.

Interesting interview with John McDonnell on Radio 4 where he didn’t really deny very effectively that Labour’s economic programme was a British version of Trump’s America First.

And this is quite interesting on Corbyn’s approach - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/jeremy-corbyns-obsession-with-antizionism-is-poisoning-labour-srj2wgvlk. McDonnell sounded embarrassed by it all.

Despite myself and despite not trusting him an iota, I find myself preferring McDonnell to Corbyn. At least you know you are dealing with the political equivalent of one of those corrupt 1970’s Met detectives. Whereas Corbyn’s unjustified self-righteousness grates.

McDonnell is at least highly intelligent.

In a sense though that makes him more culpable for the rubbish he spouts. We can't say as we do with Corbyn or Pidcock or Rayner that it's because he doesn't have a clue what he's saying.

True. I don’t trust him but there’s a shrewdness there.

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

Very sad events in Greece.

Interesting interview with John McDonnell on Radio 4 where he didn’t really deny very effectively that Labour’s economic programme was a British version of Trump’s America First.

And this is quite interesting on Corbyn’s approach - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/jeremy-corbyns-obsession-with-antizionism-is-poisoning-labour-srj2wgvlk. McDonnell sounded embarrassed by it all.

Despite myself and despite not trusting him an iota, I find myself preferring McDonnell to Corbyn. At least you know you are dealing with the political equivalent of one of those corrupt 1970’s Met detectives. Whereas Corbyn’s unjustified self-righteousness grates.

McDonnell is at least highly intelligent.

In a sense though that makes him more culpable for the rubbish he spouts. We can't say as we do with Corbyn or Pidcock or Rayner that it's because he doesn't have a clue what he's saying.

True. I don’t trust him but there’s a shrewdness there.

Count me out of the McDonnell love in.

The man barely attempts to camouflage his admiration of political violence, which he is happy to dogwhistle for too. I think he’s filth.

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

Scott_P said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TOPPING said:

Interesting that calling the issue food security, as some media is doing, rather than food shortages might easily take the sting out of the situation.

To be filed alongside “world trade deal”.

https://twitter.com/TheAndyMaturin/status/1021848759100223489

Or you have the money and space to be able to do so.

Porsches have lousy boot space for post apocalyptic looting. Their strength as a getaway vehicle will be diminished hundreds of burnt out Nespresso machines littering the road.

While planning for post Brexit Britain, I think one needs to consider certain contingencies. Perhaps a V8 Interceptor would be car of choice:

https://youtu.be/k3E6uWoNPVo

Mr. Royale, indeed.

Miss Cyclefree, there's a philosophical question. What's the worse type of political fringe lunatic: someone who knows what they're doing, or someone who doesn't?

TOPPING said:

Interesting that calling the issue food security, as some media is doing, rather than food shortages might easily take the sting out of the situation.

Not sure whether we should be more worried that the government has stockpiling food as a Brexit policy or that it's not doing it.

FF43 said:

TOPPING said:

Interesting that calling the issue food security, as some media is doing, rather than food shortages might easily take the sting out of the situation.

Not sure whether we should be more worried that the government has stockpiling food as a Brexit policy or that it's not doing it.

Theresa May's government - the political equivalent of social workers.

Discuss.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Royale, indeed.

Miss Cyclefree, there's a philosophical question. What's the worse type of political fringe lunatic: someone who knows what they're doing, or someone who doesn't?

Depends on what the consequences of their actions are.

Cyclefree said:

Casino_Royale said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

Very sad events in Greece.

Interesting interview with John McDonnell on Radio 4 where he didn’t really deny very effectively that Labour’s economic programme was a British version of Trump’s America First.

And this is quite interesting on Corbyn’s approach - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/jeremy-corbyns-obsession-with-antizionism-is-poisoning-labour-srj2wgvlk. McDonnell sounded embarrassed by it all.

Despite myself and despite not trusting him an iota, I find myself preferring McDonnell to Corbyn. At least you know you are dealing with the political equivalent of one of those corrupt 1970’s Met detectives. Whereas Corbyn’s unjustified self-righteousness grates.

McDonnell is at least highly intelligent.

In a sense though that makes him more culpable for the rubbish he spouts. We can't say as we do with Corbyn or Pidcock or Rayner that it's because he doesn't have a clue what he's saying.

True. I don’t trust him but there’s a shrewdness there.

Count me out of the McDonnell love in.

The man barely attempts to camouflage his admiration of political violence, which he is happy to dogwhistle for too. I think he’s filth.

I didn’t say I loved him. I said I preferred him to Corbyn. The bar is not high. I want neither of them in power.

But, frankly, we’re not facing a great choice, are we? The political equivalent of choosing between having a nest of rats or wasps lodging in your house. Both will cause expensive damage and have a nasty bite, in different ways. Neither are welcome.

Aren’t we there already?

Casino_Royale said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

Very sad events in Greece.

Interesting interview with John McDonnell on Radio 4 where he didn’t really deny very effectively that Labour’s economic programme was a British version of Trump’s America First.

And this is quite interesting on Corbyn’s approach - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/jeremy-corbyns-obsession-with-antizionism-is-poisoning-labour-srj2wgvlk. McDonnell sounded embarrassed by it all.

Despite myself and despite not trusting him an iota, I find myself preferring McDonnell to Corbyn. At least you know you are dealing with the political equivalent of one of those corrupt 1970’s Met detectives. Whereas Corbyn’s unjustified self-righteousness grates.

McDonnell is at least highly intelligent.

In a sense though that makes him more culpable for the rubbish he spouts. We can't say as we do with Corbyn or Pidcock or Rayner that it's because he doesn't have a clue what he's saying.

True. I don’t trust him but there’s a shrewdness there.

Count me out of the McDonnell love in.

The man barely attempts to camouflage his admiration of political violence, which he is happy to dogwhistle for too. I think he’s filth.

You are far too charitable in your assessment of the man.

Foxy said:

Dura_Ace said:

FPT on Type 31e... This is classic MoD bait and switch.

The RN actual gave up 2 x T45 (hulls #7 and #8) so that they could have 18 x FSC (as T26 was known at the time) comprising 10 x ASW and 8 x General Purpose. As the program progressed this was reduced by the tories to 13 x T26 (8 x ASW, 5 x GP) to 8 x T26 and 5 x T31 (ebay version of T26). Now T31 has been "suspended" (ie cancelled) we're left with the 8 x T26. Even if the RN get all 8, which is doubtful, that will leave the RN with an escort fleet of 14 ships!

But remember you can't trust Labour on defence...

Allowing for the fact that the Type 45's engines don't work, and the RFA is being gutted again, how many RN surface vessels are actually going to be deployable?

Well warships typically spend a significant proportion of their lives in refit so we'd definitely be down to single figures.

If you looked at what the tories actually do instead of what they say you could come to no other conclusion than that they absolutely despise the armed forces of the United Kingdom.

Dura_Ace said:

Foxy said:

Dura_Ace said:

FPT on Type 31e... This is classic MoD bait and switch.

The RN actual gave up 2 x T45 (hulls #7 and #8) so that they could have 18 x FSC (as T26 was known at the time) comprising 10 x ASW and 8 x General Purpose. As the program progressed this was reduced by the tories to 13 x T26 (8 x ASW, 5 x GP) to 8 x T26 and 5 x T31 (ebay version of T26). Now T31 has been "suspended" (ie cancelled) we're left with the 8 x T26. Even if the RN get all 8, which is doubtful, that will leave the RN with an escort fleet of 14 ships!

But remember you can't trust Labour on defence...

Allowing for the fact that the Type 45's engines don't work, and the RFA is being gutted again, how many RN surface vessels are actually going to be deployable?

Well warships typically spend a significant proportion of their lives in refit so we'd definitely be down to single figures.

If you looked at what the tories actually do instead of what they say you could come to no other conclusion than that they absolutely despise the armed forces of the United Kingdom.

How many vessels are needed for a carrier escort group? Would it effectively be the whole fleet?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Royale, indeed.

Miss Cyclefree, there's a philosophical question. What's the worse type of political fringe lunatic: someone who knows what they're doing, or someone who doesn't?

Both are equally bad in different ways. The former is a Pol Pot. The latter: JRM?

I am a bit sceptical that fringe lunatics don’t know what they are doing. They may be incompetent but they usually have an idea. It’s just that their idea is rubbish and/or even if the general idea is a good one they have no clue how to get there and/or lack the flexibility to adapt.

the Venezuela option and the food stockpiling option lead to same place: abject misery for the country.

Corbyn, McDonnell, May and Johnson - none of them deserve a vote.

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

Scott_P said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TOPPING said:

Interesting that calling the issue food security, as some media is doing, rather than food shortages might easily take the sting out of the situation.

To be filed alongside “world trade deal”.

https://twitter.com/TheAndyMaturin/status/1021848759100223489

Or you have the money and space to be able to do so.

Porsches have lousy boot space for post apocalyptic looting. Their strength as a getaway vehicle will be diminished hundreds of burnt out Nespresso machines littering the road.

Proper Porsches have the “boot” at the wrong end. Engine at the back, storage at the front.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/MrSteerpike/status/1022014442844958720

Reminds me of the famous time George W. Bush said he stood for 'anti-racism and Anti-Semitism.'

Cyclefree said:

Casino_Royale said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

Very sad events in Greece.

Interesting interview with John McDonnell on Radio 4 where he didn’t really deny very effectively that Labour’s economic programme was a British version of Trump’s America First.

And this is quite interesting on Corbyn’s approach - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/jeremy-corbyns-obsession-with-antizionism-is-poisoning-labour-srj2wgvlk. McDonnell sounded embarrassed by it all.

Despite myself and despite not trusting him an iota, I find myself preferring McDonnell to Corbyn. At least you know you are dealing with the political equivalent of one of those corrupt 1970’s Met detectives. Whereas Corbyn’s unjustified self-righteousness grates.

McDonnell is at least highly intelligent.

In a sense though that makes him more culpable for the rubbish he spouts. We can't say as we do with Corbyn or Pidcock or Rayner that it's because he doesn't have a clue what he's saying.

True. I don’t trust him but there’s a shrewdness there.

Count me out of the McDonnell love in.

The man barely attempts to camouflage his admiration of political violence, which he is happy to dogwhistle for too. I think he’s filth.

I didn’t say I loved him. I said I preferred him to Corbyn. The bar is not high. I want neither of them in power.

But, frankly, we’re not facing a great choice, are we? The political equivalent of choosing between having a nest of rats or wasps lodging in your house. Both will cause expensive damage and have a nasty bite, in different ways. Neither are welcome.

I thought that the rats were busy planning their emigration to Canada

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

Very sad events in Greece.

Interesting interview with John McDonnell on Radio 4 where he didn’t really deny very effectively that Labour’s economic programme was a British version of Trump’s America First.

And this is quite interesting on Corbyn’s approach - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/jeremy-corbyns-obsession-with-antizionism-is-poisoning-labour-srj2wgvlk. McDonnell sounded embarrassed by it all.

Despite myself and despite not trusting him an iota, I find myself preferring McDonnell to Corbyn. At least you know you are dealing with the political equivalent of one of those corrupt 1970’s Met detectives. Whereas Corbyn’s unjustified self-righteousness grates.

McDonnell is at least highly intelligent.

In a sense though that makes him more culpable for the rubbish he spouts. We can't say as we do with Corbyn or Pidcock or Rayner that it's because he doesn't have a clue what he's saying.

True. I don’t trust him but there’s a shrewdness there.

Count me out of the McDonnell love in.

The man barely attempts to camouflage his admiration of political violence, which he is happy to dogwhistle for too. I think he’s filth.

You're generous. You only went on his record on political violence. But that and anything else is separate from the fact he is undoubtedly able.

Why shouldn’t that be a dealbreaker? There have been many able men throughout history advocating such solutions who’ve - consequently - been extremely dangerous.

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

Very sad events in Greece.

Interesting interview with John McDonnell on Radio 4 where he didn’t really deny very effectively that Labour’s economic programme was a British version of Trump’s America First.

And this is quite interesting on Corbyn’s approach - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/jeremy-corbyns-obsession-with-antizionism-is-poisoning-labour-srj2wgvlk. McDonnell sounded embarrassed by it all.

Despite myself and despite not trusting him an iota, I find myself preferring McDonnell to Corbyn. At least you know you are dealing with the political equivalent of one of those corrupt 1970’s Met detectives. Whereas Corbyn’s unjustified self-righteousness grates.

McDonnell is at least highly intelligent.

In a sense though that makes him more culpable for the rubbish he spouts. We can't say as we do with Corbyn or Pidcock or Rayner that it's because he doesn't have a clue what he's saying.

True. I don’t trust him but there’s a shrewdness there.

He would be the one signing the gulag orders while he kept Jezza in his playroom reading another critique of Capitalism.

SquareRoot said:

Casino_Royale said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

Very sad events in Greece.

Interesting interview with John McDonnell on Radio 4 where he didn’t really deny very effectively that Labour’s economic programme was a British version of Trump’s America First.

And this is quite interesting on Corbyn’s approach - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/jeremy-corbyns-obsession-with-antizionism-is-poisoning-labour-srj2wgvlk. McDonnell sounded embarrassed by it all.

Despite myself and despite not trusting him an iota, I find myself preferring McDonnell to Corbyn. At least you know you are dealing with the political equivalent of one of those corrupt 1970’s Met detectives. Whereas Corbyn’s unjustified self-righteousness grates.

McDonnell is at least highly intelligent.

In a sense though that makes him more culpable for the rubbish he spouts. We can't say as we do with Corbyn or Pidcock or Rayner that it's because he doesn't have a clue what he's saying.

True. I don’t trust him but there’s a shrewdness there.

Count me out of the McDonnell love in.

The man barely attempts to camouflage his admiration of political violence, which he is happy to dogwhistle for too. I think he’s filth.

You are far too charitable in your assessment of the man.

Would be interesting to see how the media went after McDonnell if he looked like getting close to power.....

His Little Red Book stunt will come back to haunt him too.

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

That was one hot sticky night.
Rain, a hearfelt message from us to you:
We were wrong to be so unkind about you. We took you for granted. All we did was complain. But now we realise we can’t live without you. We are half of what we should be. Please come home.
Love, the UK x

I did a walk in Northamptonshire on Sunday, and encountered some light drizzle as I climbed up to the top of Honey Hill. I stretched out my arms and let the drops hit my face.

It was a marvellous 22 mile stroll on a very warm day (actually 24, because *ahem* I went wrong in a couple of places). But best of all was the drizzle - and it's not often I say that!

Back in May when Severn Trent reservoirs were at 96% capacity I foolishly said there would be no hosepipe ban this summer. Even then, I had a vaguely uneasy feeling that I could be inviting drought. Now I know. This is all my fault!!

I have mentioned that prediction to you on a couple of occasions.

As recently as the start of June, reservoir levels under Severn Trent were at 91% of capacity. It should also be noted that they have only one major reservoir chain - the Derwent - below 60% at the moment. By contrast Thirlmere is down to 48% (I'm guessing those fires had something to do with that). Annoyingly I can't find the details for Blithefield, but the Clywedog reservoir (our other major source of water) is still at 85%.

So it's not certain the Midlands will have a hosepipe ban, or even especially likely. A dry autumn and it might be a different story next year.

Bah. why let 'facts' get in the way of a gentle ribbing?

It is of course disturbing to realise reservoir levels have fallen by a quarter in just two months. Six months without rain and we would be in the same situation as Cape Town was earlier this year.

But that is - hopefully - not likely to happen.

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

If Theresa May thought for a minute she'd win, she'd follow John Major and call one herself.

She can't. The rules have changed.

She can call a vote of no confidence. She simply asks MPs to submit letters with her blessing.

She’s have to be awfully confident to go down that route, as once letter 48 is delivered the process is completely out of her control. If she resigns or loses a VoNC she can’t stand in the resultant contest.

Not a question of confidence. Hell, she'd probably lose. But it would force the party to make a choice about what it wants to do, and either unite behind her or her successor, or just split already. At least the never ending sniping and plotting would be done.

It is sad and pathetic that people keep saying how dreadful and undemocratic her plan is, yet they won't stop her. Probably as they think the EU will, but if they believe what they say they should act. Or she should.

How ironic, the 'Take Back Control' brigade are hoping the EU will stop May's plan.

Trimble was positively dancing a jig this morning on the radio, describing how the EU would have no option but to put up a border and how simply awful that would be*.

*not

MTimT said:

Dura_Ace said:

Tim_B said:

MyBurningEars said:

dixiedean said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AndyJS said:

O/T

Canadian TV drama on BBC4 called Cardinal. Don't remember a Canadian show being on British TV before.

Due South was on BBC1 IIRC. It featured a Mounty and his dog, Diefenbaker.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Due_South

Canadian PM 57-63. Diefenbaker that is.

I may be going mad, but I seem to recall that @TimB posted on here an extraordinary story about the time he bought a second-hand car not long after migrating to the New World.

And the former owner of the car turned out to be a retired but very senior Canadian politician.

Would appreciate it if someone can confirm whether or not the heat has completely addled me!!

Yes that is the case. It was a Cadillac previously owned by the leader of the socialist party in Canada. I am amazed that you remember that!

It had an 8.2 liter engine and went like a scalded dog.

Three legged dog, maybe! 500ci Caddy motors only make about 200hp when new...

This conversation reminds me of the LA Speed Check story. For those of you who have never heard it, well worth the five minutes:

https://twistedsifter.com/videos/an-sr-71-blackbird-pilot-recounts-his-infamous-la-speed-check-story/

Excellent and well told.

Dura_Ace said:

Foxy said:

Dura_Ace said:

Foxy said:

Dura_Ace said:

FPT on Type 31e... This is classic MoD bait and switch.

The RN actual gave up 2 x T45 (hulls #7 and #8) so that they could have 18 x FSC (as T26 was known at the time) comprising 10 x ASW and 8 x General Purpose. As the program progressed this was reduced by the tories to 13 x T26 (8 x ASW, 5 x GP) to 8 x T26 and 5 x T31 (ebay version of T26). Now T31 has been "suspended" (ie cancelled) we're left with the 8 x T26. Even if the RN get all 8, which is doubtful, that will leave the RN with an escort fleet of 14 ships!

But remember you can't trust Labour on defence...

Allowing for the fact that the Type 45's engines don't work, and the RFA is being gutted again, how many RN surface vessels are actually going to be deployable?

Well warships typically spend a significant proportion of their lives in refit so we'd definitely be down to single figures.

If you looked at what the tories actually do instead of what they say you could come to no other conclusion than that they absolutely despise the armed forces of the United Kingdom.

How many vessels are needed for a carrier escort group? Would it effectively be the whole fleet?

A US CSG is (at the very least, it's usually more) the carrier, a Tico guided missile destroyer, a destroyer squadron of two Arleigh Burkes, two hunter/killer subs and a tanker/replenishment vessel so at least 7. A UK only CSG outside a multi-national coalition would be almost impossible but it would probably be 1 x QEC, 1 x T45 (power plant permitting) , 1 x T23/T26 and 1 Wave class or Solid Support. However, in effort to deliver best value for the tax payer only one of the Solid Support ship is going be equipped for "heavy" replenishment (ie bombs and aircraft engines) so if that particular vessel is inconveniently unavailable the job's fucked.

The carriers seem to be a luxury the rest of the navy has been sacrificed for.

If we really need them, would we have been better off rebuilding the rest of the fleet first and waiting until more funds were available (which would have had the added benefit of waiting to see if the F35 was ever going to be a reliable airframe for carrier operations before ordering it, and making an informed and less costly decision on what kind of catapult system to opt for...) ?

Nigelb said:

.

ydoethur said:

Emotive language used in this report:

Excluded pupils 'abandoned by schools' in England
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-44941691

I notice however that while full of concern for those who due to their own efforts get kicked out (belatedly, in my experience) they don't make any mention of the potential negative impact on other children of keeping them in school.

And the rhetoric in that report gives scant attention to the lack of resources which lies at threat of the problem. The difficulty in getting EHCP funding for some of these kids is notorious, and many PRUs are running at capacity.

Schools are left with a perverse choice between the welfare of the few and the many, which is particularly acute with children displaying extreme behaviour problems.

Very true - Mrs Capitano has been going through exactly that over the last year, not helped by a pair of particularly truculent parents who (as is not particularly unusual with troubled kids) have not been ready to accept that there can be anything wrong with the kid.

For the Children's Commissioner to glibly dismiss this as "some schools are seeking to improve their overall exam results by removing some of their most vulnerable children from the school roll" is a spectacular exercise in missing the point. By and large, with a kid like this, SATs results are the least of the worries. It's the impact on the other kids, both directly through disruptive behaviour, and indirectly through the amount of staff time taken to deal with this.

Scott_P said:

Jonathan said:

Food shortage stories favour the Leavers IMO. People don't like to be pushed around and it somewhat supports the view that we will were not sovereign.

Actual food shortages is a different matter entirely.

Brexiteers said food would be cheaper after Brexit. Now the same people are saying we hope not to run out.

Only massively stupid people will thank them for that.

But they keep their promise to reduce the amount people spend on food?

IanB2 said:

Scott_P said:

Jonathan said:

Food shortage stories favour the Leavers IMO. People don't like to be pushed around and it somewhat supports the view that we will were not sovereign.

Actual food shortages is a different matter entirely.

Brexiteers said food would be cheaper after Brexit. Now the same people are saying we hope not to run out.

Only massively stupid people will thank them for that.

But they keep their promise to reduce the amount people spend on food?

Plus they address the obesity crisis?

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

Foxy said:

Dura_Ace said:

Foxy said:

Dura_Ace said:

FPT on Type 31e... This is classic MoD bait and switch.

The RN actual gave up 2 x T45 (hulls #7 and #8) so that they could have 18 x FSC (as T26 was known at the time) comprising 10 x ASW and 8 x General Purpose. As the program progressed this was reduced by the tories to 13 x T26 (8 x ASW, 5 x GP) to 8 x T26 and 5 x T31 (ebay version of T26). Now T31 has been "suspended" (ie cancelled) we're left with the 8 x T26. Even if the RN get all 8, which is doubtful, that will leave the RN with an escort fleet of 14 ships!

But remember you can't trust Labour on defence...

Allowing for the fact that the Type 45's engines don't work, and the RFA is being gutted again, how many RN surface vessels are actually going to be deployable?

Well warships typically spend a significant proportion of their lives in refit so we'd definitely be down to single figures.

If you looked at what the tories actually do instead of what they say you could come to no other conclusion than that they absolutely despise the armed forces of the United Kingdom.

How many vessels are needed for a carrier escort group? Would it effectively be the whole fleet?

A US CSG is (at the very least, it's usually more) the carrier, a Tico guided missile destroyer, a destroyer squadron of two Arleigh Burkes, two hunter/killer subs and a tanker/replenishment vessel so at least 7. A UK only CSG outside a multi-national coalition would be almost impossible but it would probably be 1 x QEC, 1 x T45 (power plant permitting) , 1 x T23/T26 and 1 Wave class or Solid Support. However, in effort to deliver best value for the tax payer only one of the Solid Support ship is going be equipped for "heavy" replenishment (ie bombs and aircraft engines) so if that particular vessel is inconveniently unavailable the job's fucked.

The carriers seem to be a luxury the rest of the navy has been sacrificed for.

If we really need them, would we have been better off rebuilding the rest of the fleet first and waiting until more funds were available (which would have had the added benefit of waiting to see if the F35 was ever going to be a reliable airframe for carrier operations before ordering it, and making an informed and less costly decision on what kind of catapult system to opt for...) ?

My impression always was that there was a community of interest. The Admiralty thought it would inevitably lead to refleeting and Brown saw Scottish metal bashing jobs. The military-industrial complex at a small scale.

another_richard said:

currystar said:

Honestly , food shortages???? What utter nonsense.

Talked about by the same people who expected that the crops would rot in the field in 2017 and then expected that the crops would rot in the field in 2018.

Talkwd about by the Government minister in charge of Brexit.