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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After just a year in the job Cable comes under pressure
Mail reporting LD plot to swap Vince Cable, 75, for Layla Moran, 35 https://t.co/BwUBULHXuN via @MailOnline
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no comments?0
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Not yet.0
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Two questions:
1. Why would Cable, as head of the only remaining centrist party, be in talks to set up a new centrist party rather than be focused on making his existing centrist party a real force?
2. Why would anyone be interested in a new centrist party set up by a failed leader of a centrist party who appears to be abandoning the party he leads?0 -
Deserves to be. A great politician but missing the vote was far to cavalier and reminds me of leaders past when the good life always trumped the politics0
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motto: Vincerò0
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Because Vince is old Labour, whence his support might come.MTimT said:Two questions:
1. Why would Cable, as head of the only remaining centrist party, be in talks to set up a new centrist party rather than be focused on making his existing centrist party a real force?
2. Why would anyone be interested in a new centrist party set up by a failed leader of a centrist party who appears to be abandoning the party he leads?
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Lib Dems are irrelevant in their current form. They need to join up with Labour and Tory centrists in the near future and form a new party that puts sensible politics at the heart of political discourse and leaves the nutters on the left and right to fester on the margins.0
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Who is this 'Cable' to whom one refers?0
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FPT
Afternoon again all
Vince was only ever going to be a caretaker until Jo Swinson returned from maternity leave. My feeling is most in the Party don't want a coronation and would value a contest between Swinson and Moran. As for "public profile", who cares at this stage ?
I've not heard either Moran or Swinson lay out their personal political agenda so as a member of the electorate, I'll reserve judgement until there actually is a contest.
OTOH, the Conservative Party, if it stands for nothing else, stands for the Union. It is philosophically and practically impossible for said Party to accept any arrangement which treats Ulster separately from the rest of the UK (unless of course it's an arrangement which Westminster itself has created).
A vote for Scottish independence would have finished Cameron as effectively as the EU Referendum did and if we are to believe HYUFD any deal which May puts forward which treats Ulster separately will be her death warrant as leader and Prime Minister.
Barnier and the EU presumably know this and are using this weakness/fundamental point of principle (delete as appropriate) as a bargaining chip to ensure a good deal for the Irish Republic and by inference the rest of the European Union because they are Unionists too.
Therein lies the rub - two groups of Unionists negotiating from starting points of trying to preserve their individual Unions while trying to arrange a separation and a divorce.0 -
Cablestitch-up0
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Layla Moran would be terrific - very well positioned to peel off the younger pro-EU crowd who are currently voting for Corbyn despite his Eurosceptic past. The Conservatives should welcome her for that reason.0
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I've never heard of her but who cares. If the contest for PM is likely to be between Mogg Johnson and Corbyn she'll look like a star just by by looking normal and being a Lib Dem I suspect she'll be roughly where the population are. The freaks circus is over.....El_Capitano said:Layla Moran would be terrific - very well positioned to peel off the younger pro-EU crowd who are currently voting for Corbyn despite his Eurosceptic past. The Conservatives should welcome her for that reason.
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The third question: Who was he meeting with? Nearly all the MPs were in the Commons, and those "Centrists" in the Tpries and Labour in particular. It could only be either Lords or civilians. It is surprising that they couldn't reschedule around the vote. The story smells rather fishy.MTimT said:Two questions:
1. Why would Cable, as head of the only remaining centrist party, be in talks to set up a new centrist party rather than be focused on making his existing centrist party a real force?
2. Why would anyone be interested in a new centrist party set up by a failed leader of a centrist party who appears to be abandoning the party he leads?
It would also be unwise to have anpther coronation, any new leader (and I quite like Moran) should be tested first on the hustings, and also usefully gain publicity for themselves and party. I suspect this would be post Brexit in 2019.
Rather than try to attract defectors, the LDs should be working on what Centrism means in the 21st Century, and not just concentrating on Brexit. No amount of defectors makes for an appealing package, unless there is a coherent philosophy and direction, but build that, and they will come.0 -
The most pressing question for the Lib Dems is not: who? but: what is their prospectus? They've lost the "mad as hell and not going to take it any more" voters and they haven't picked up any new ones.0
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The key thing as leader of a third party is to somehow, by your own exertions, to become newsworthy. After all, the media will always ask the Opposition for a line on any given policy: but that's the official opposition. If however the third party becomes sufficiently high-profile that the media find what they have to say interesting they will come for quotes.
Luck is needed but also energy. Ashdown was good at it, so was Kennedy. They managed by sticking to issues on which they were expert and coming up with good slogans backed by sound policies to become go to figures in the media and had messages that cut through mainstream discourse. It was of course helped that they had some solid performers under them and an Opposition who were about as effective as Donald Trump's chastity belt, but they exploited their advantages.
Unfortunately Cable, who might have been the ideal leader at the time of the financial crisis, just hasn't come up with anything on the key issue of this parliament because the Liberal Democrats - who should have been yelling about the EEA from the off - became the party of 'the vote was wrong, maybe we should change it.' This was not a smart place to start even with Remainers.
Of course, these things can go too far (look at Thorpe) but I think a new leader certainly after Christmas with something fresh on trade and foreign policy would be the way to go. Whether Moran is the person to do that I will confess I don't know. But Kennedy was not widely known except among anoraks in 1998. She may make her luck. What we can say for definite is Cable now won't.0 -
Pity the US Democrats already have an ass as their symbol because the LibDdems' political position is that of Buridan's ass.
edit: corrected for spelling0 -
F1: post-race ramble:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/07/germany-post-race-analysis-2018.html
Find the midfield team battle particularly interesting.0 -
There is certainly scope for a new centrist party to be formed out of the LDs which was what Cable was discussing at a dinner when the vote he missed was held. 33% of voters would support a new centrist anti Brexit Party with Yougov today though it may need a more charismatic leader than Cable or Moran to lead it.
Yougov also had 38% support for a new right wing pro Brexit Party and 24% for a new hard right anti immigration nationalist party. The scope is there for a wholesale realignment along the faultlines developing in much of global politics today between a Corbynite socialist hard Left party, a liberal centrist party and a nationalist right wing party and a populist far right anti immigration party0 -
I'm surprised they've not been able to make more of their USP of opposing Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:The most pressing question for the Lib Dems is not: who? but: what is their prospectus? They've lost the "mad as hell and not going to take it any more" voters and they haven't picked up any new ones.
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It's not much of a USP when most of the viral videos of Brexit opposition within Parliament come from Tories.Sean_F said:
I'm surprised they've not been able to make more of their USP of opposing Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:The most pressing question for the Lib Dems is not: who? but: what is their prospectus? They've lost the "mad as hell and not going to take it any more" voters and they haven't picked up any new ones.
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PS Just looked her up. Her Father is a Palestinian writer born in Jerusalem.Roger said:
I've never heard of her but who cares. If the contest for PM is likely to be between Mogg Johnson and Corbyn she'll look like a star just by by looking normal and being a Lib Dem I suspect she'll be roughly where the population are. The freaks circus is over.....El_Capitano said:Layla Moran would be terrific - very well positioned to peel off the younger pro-EU crowd who are currently voting for Corbyn despite his Eurosceptic past. The Conservatives should welcome her for that reason.
She sounds perfect!0 -
What's your source as I understood her father was a British diplomat?Roger said:
PS Just looked her up. Her Father is a Palestinian writer born in Jerusalem.Roger said:
I've never heard of her but who cares. If the contest for PM is likely to be between Mogg Johnson and Corbyn she'll look like a star just by by looking normal and being a Lib Dem I suspect she'll be roughly where the population are. The freaks circus is over.....El_Capitano said:Layla Moran would be terrific - very well positioned to peel off the younger pro-EU crowd who are currently voting for Corbyn despite his Eurosceptic past. The Conservatives should welcome her for that reason.
She sounds perfect!
Edit: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Moran_(diplomat)0 -
I couldn't agree with you less.. At the moment NOT being Mogg May Corbyn or Johnson is just about all a party leader needs to be.AlastairMeeks said:The most pressing question for the Lib Dems is not: who? but: what is their prospectus? They've lost the "mad as hell and not going to take it any more" voters and they haven't picked up any new ones.
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We know the LibDems are serious Europhiles, so they will only get a fraction of the 48%. Normally I'd say 1 in 5 of those, but then as Corbyn's disingenuous opposition to the Govt's Brexit becomes more evident I reckon they could get up to twice that, i.e. max 20% of the vote.Sean_F said:
I'm surprised they've not been able to make more of their USP of opposing Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:The most pressing question for the Lib Dems is not: who? but: what is their prospectus? They've lost the "mad as hell and not going to take it any more" voters and they haven't picked up any new ones.
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He meant her Great-Grandfatherydoethur said:
What's your source as I understood her father was a British diplomat?Roger said:
PS Just looked her up. Her Father is a Palestinian writer born in Jerusalem.Roger said:
I've never heard of her but who cares. If the contest for PM is likely to be between Mogg Johnson and Corbyn she'll look like a star just by by looking normal and being a Lib Dem I suspect she'll be roughly where the population are. The freaks circus is over.....El_Capitano said:Layla Moran would be terrific - very well positioned to peel off the younger pro-EU crowd who are currently voting for Corbyn despite his Eurosceptic past. The Conservatives should welcome her for that reason.
She sounds perfect!
Edit: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Moran_(diplomat)0 -
Both Jo Swinson and Layla Moran are hideously overrated. Go to YouTube, and after you've watched all my videos, watch them.
Neither of them are impressive.
The Liberals had Jeremy Thorpe, David Steel and Paddy Ashdown in the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s. They were three intelligent and impressive leaders (whatever their other... errr... foibles). And now we're talking about Layla Moran. Youth does not automatically mean substance. Sometimes it just means someone who hasn't lived very long.
The LibDems "bench" simply isn't a very large one, and doesn't have that many figures with substance. It needs someone with energy (that counts Cable out), but also someone with intelligence, passion and communication skills. It needs someone who can be seen as a Cabinet minister in a coalition government. It needs someone who can work out what niche the Liberal Democrats can fill in the next decade.
Sadly, I don't see anyone who fills that role.0 -
Sorry..... Motherydoethur said:
What's your source as I understood her father was a British diplomat?Roger said:
PS Just looked her up. Her Father is a Palestinian writer born in Jerusalem.Roger said:
I've never heard of her but who cares. If the contest for PM is likely to be between Mogg Johnson and Corbyn she'll look like a star just by by looking normal and being a Lib Dem I suspect she'll be roughly where the population are. The freaks circus is over.....El_Capitano said:Layla Moran would be terrific - very well positioned to peel off the younger pro-EU crowd who are currently voting for Corbyn despite his Eurosceptic past. The Conservatives should welcome her for that reason.
She sounds perfect!
Edit: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Moran_(diplomat)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Layla_Moran0 -
F1: Hamilton called to the stewards for his aborted pit lane entry.
If he gets a 5s penalty that puts him 2nd. 10s puts him 4th.
Be a big call to give a retroactive penalty now, though.0 -
No her dad is British - a former British EU ambassador - and she was born in Hammersmith. Her great grandfather was a famous writer from Palestine of Othordox Christian origin admittedly - see below - and her mother is a Lebanese Arab Christian.Roger said:
PS Just looked her up. Her Father is a Palestinian writer born in Jerusalem.Roger said:
I've never heard of her but who cares. If the contest for PM is likely to be between Mogg Johnson and Corbyn she'll look like a star just by by looking normal and being a Lib Dem I suspect she'll be roughly where the population are. The freaks circus is over.....El_Capitano said:Layla Moran would be terrific - very well positioned to peel off the younger pro-EU crowd who are currently voting for Corbyn despite his Eurosceptic past. The Conservatives should welcome her for that reason.
She sounds perfect!
Not that it really matters but she seems to have had a very privileged middle class upbringing in west London doing a fair bit of travelling because her dad was a diplomat - she hardly struggled from nothing to make it to London from the war torn West Bank or Gaza?
She may well make a great Lib Dem leader but let's not get carried away with her life story.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wasif_Jawhariyyeh0 -
He was trying to line up Juncker to stand as a candidate for his new centrist party - Up Juncker - in a by-election. The plan is for Vince to step down, and then Juncker to stand in Twickenham. When Juncker is returned to the Commons with 99.3% of the vote in the by-election, he will arrive at the Commons like the Messiah, drawing even Eurosceptics to him. Britain will truly become the centre of a federal Europe as Juncker takes on the twin roles of European Commission Predident and Prime Minsiter of the UK. Vince Cable will be beautified for his role in doing this, becoming the first living Saint.Foxy said:
The third question: Who was he meeting with? Nearly all the MPs were in the Commons, and those "Centrists" in the Tpries and Labour in particular. It could only be either Lords or civilians. It is surprising that they couldn't reschedule around the vote. The story smells rather fishy.MTimT said:Two questions:
1. Why would Cable, as head of the only remaining centrist party, be in talks to set up a new centrist party rather than be focused on making his existing centrist party a real force?
2. Why would anyone be interested in a new centrist party set up by a failed leader of a centrist party who appears to be abandoning the party he leads?
It would also be unwise to have anpther coronation, any new leader (and I quite like Moran) should be tested first on the hustings, and also usefully gain publicity for themselves and party. I suspect this would be post Brexit in 2019.
Rather than try to attract defectors, the LDs should be working on what Centrism means in the 21st Century, and not just concentrating on Brexit. No amount of defectors makes for an appealing package, unless there is a coherent philosophy and direction, but build that, and they will come.
Nailed on.0 -
Layla Moran easily passes the "would go down the pub with her/him" test and is not only 'normal' but very passionate and engaged, and thus turns people onto politics not away from it. Her background as a physics teacher, her being untainted by coalition, her huge pro-Europe credentials led to her election in OXWaB (a strong remain area, and a big international science community) despite a popular Tory incumbent (who I also knew, and had respect for - albeit one who was with TMay with the disastrous 'meet and greet' debacle in Abingdon Market Square). I have met her on several occasions and she is someone who commands a great deal of respect and support, and is very likeable.Roger said:
PS Just looked her up. Her Father is a Palestinian writer born in Jerusalem.Roger said:
I've never heard of her but who cares. If the contest for PM is likely to be between Mogg Johnson and Corbyn she'll look like a star just by by looking normal and being a Lib Dem I suspect she'll be roughly where the population are. The freaks circus is over.....El_Capitano said:Layla Moran would be terrific - very well positioned to peel off the younger pro-EU crowd who are currently voting for Corbyn despite his Eurosceptic past. The Conservatives should welcome her for that reason.
She sounds perfect!
My only worry: she's relatively new to politics and probably needs to 'toughen up a bit', but then as the LibDems currently have little chance of sharing power, she may have time to build confidence gradually during the post-Brexit implosion.
I see her leading the LibDems as a cause for celebration. But I can't believe Cable will go quietly...0 -
Indeed. They should pick a couple of clearly Liberal issues that no-one else is talking about. A good example might be descriminalisation of drugs, following the model of Portugal.AlastairMeeks said:The most pressing question for the Lib Dems is not: who? but: what is their prospectus? They've lost the "mad as hell and not going to take it any more" voters and they haven't picked up any new ones.
They then need to get have a media blitz on these subjects, writing opinion columns and getting in TV studios talking about their issues while everyone else is talking about nothing but Brexit. They should also be putting their MPs and well known LDs up for guest spots on the news channels, the biggest problem is that under Cable they’re completely invisible.0 -
They gave Kimi a 5 second time penalty for a similar transgression in 2016.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Hamilton called to the stewards for his aborted pit lane entry.
If he gets a 5s penalty that puts him 2nd. 10s puts him 4th.
Be a big call to give a retroactive penalty now, though.
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As you can see from Cable soaring from strength to strength.Roger said:
I couldn't agree with you less.. At the moment NOT being Mogg May Corbyn or Johnson is just about all a party leader needs to be.AlastairMeeks said:The most pressing question for the Lib Dems is not: who? but: what is their prospectus? They've lost the "mad as hell and not going to take it any more" voters and they haven't picked up any new ones.
The problem with a polarised electorate is that it forces you to pick one extreme to stop the other. Unless someone in the middle can project something of their own they'll be a mere bystander.0 -
So:HYUFD said:There is certainly scope for a new centrist party to be formed out of the LDs which was what Cable was discussing at a dinner when the vote he missed was held. 33% of voters would support a new centrist anti Brexit Party with Yougov today though it may need a more charismatic leader than Cable or Moran to lead it.
Yougov also had 38% support for a new right wing pro Brexit Party and 24% for a new hard right anti immigration nationalist party. The scope is there for a wholesale realignment along the faultlines developing in much of global politics today between a Corbynite socialist hard Left party, a liberal centrist party and a nationalist right wing party and a populist far right anti immigration party
33% Stop Brexit Centrists
38% Right Wing Pro Brexit
24% Right Wing Anti Immigration
leaving...
2% Corbyn Labour Party
1% George Osborne Tories
1% SNP
1% Others
?0 -
Is this the start of your bid for the LD leadership?rcs1000 said:Both Jo Swinson and Layla Moran are hideously overrated. Go to YouTube, and after you've watched all my videos, watch them.
Neither of them are impressive.0 -
Best comment so far and 100% tallies with my experience. Rumour has it that the Tories have already given up on OxWAb for the next election, which tells you something.bookseller said:
Layla Moran easily passes the "would go down the pub with her/him" test and is not only 'normal' but very passionate and engaged, and thus turns people onto politics not away from it. Her background as a physics teacher, her being untainted by coalition, her huge pro-Europe credentials led to her election in OXWaB (a strong remain area, and a big international science community) despite a popular Tory incumbent (who I also knew, and had respect for - albeit one who was with TMay with the disastrous 'meet and greet' debacle in Abingdon Market Square). I have met her on several occasions and she is someone who commands a great deal of respect and support, and is very likeable.Roger said:
PS Just looked her up. Her Father is a Palestinian writer born in Jerusalem.Roger said:
I've never heard of her but who cares. If the contest for PM is likely to be between Mogg Johnson and Corbyn she'll look like a star just by by looking normal and being a Lib Dem I suspect she'll be roughly where the population are. The freaks circus is over.....El_Capitano said:Layla Moran would be terrific - very well positioned to peel off the younger pro-EU crowd who are currently voting for Corbyn despite his Eurosceptic past. The Conservatives should welcome her for that reason.
She sounds perfect!
My only worry: she's relatively new to politics and probably needs to 'toughen up a bit', but then as the LibDems currently have little chance of sharing power, she may have time to build confidence gradually during the post-Brexit implosion.
I see her leading the LibDems as a cause for celebration. But I can't believe Cable will go quietly...0 -
Would be a very big call so long after the race.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Hamilton called to the stewards for his aborted pit lane entry.
If he gets a 5s penalty that puts him 2nd. 10s puts him 4th.
Be a big call to give a retroactive penalty now, though.
He should be okay as long as he didn’t trip anyone up. It’s when you swerve into the pits the stewards get upset, rather than avoiding them. There’s nothing specifically in the sporting regulations that covers this, although it may be in the event notes from Charlie (that I don’t have to hand).
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You describe Norman Lamb perfectly, and he already has experience of tripartite working on the NHS.rcs1000 said:Both Jo Swinson and Layla Moran are hideously overrated. Go to YouTube, and after you've watched all my videos, watch them.
Neither of them are impressive.
The Liberals had Jeremy Thorpe, David Steel and Paddy Ashdown in the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s. They were three intelligent and impressive leaders (whatever their other... errr... foibles). And now we're talking about Layla Moran. Youth does not automatically mean substance. Sometimes it just means someone who hasn't lived very long.
The LibDems "bench" simply isn't a very large one, and doesn't have that many figures with substance. It needs someone with energy (that counts Cable out), but also someone with intelligence, passion and communication skills. It needs someone who can be seen as a Cabinet minister in a coalition government. It needs someone who can work out what niche the Liberal Democrats can fill in the next decade.
Sadly, I don't see anyone who fills that role.0 -
Agree that's the question. For a long time they positioned themselves as sort of slightly left wing, pro civil liberties and anti-Iraq war. They've lost that crowd to Labour now.AlastairMeeks said:The most pressing question for the Lib Dems is not: who? but: what is their prospectus? They've lost the "mad as hell and not going to take it any more" voters and they haven't picked up any new ones.
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The Corbyn Labour Party would literally be the Corbyn Labour Party with the Umunnaists as Corbynistas call them joining the Stop Brexit Centrists.rcs1000 said:
So:HYUFD said:There is certainly scope for a new centrist party to be formed out of the LDs which was what Cable was discussing at a dinner when the vote he missed was held. 33% of voters would support a new centrist anti Brexit Party with Yougov today though it may need a more charismatic leader than Cable or Moran to lead it.
Yougov also had 38% support for a new right wing pro Brexit Party and 24% for a new hard right anti immigration nationalist party. The scope is there for a wholesale realignment along the faultlines developing in much of global politics today between a Corbynite socialist hard Left party, a liberal centrist party and a nationalist right wing party and a populist far right anti immigration party
33% Stop Brexit Centrists
38% Right Wing Pro Brexit
24% Right Wing Anti Immigration
leaving...
2% Corbyn Labour Party
1% George Osborne Tories
1% SNP
1% Others
?
George Osborne Tories would join the Stop Brexit Centrists.
Most likely the Right Wing Anti Immigration Party would not be as high and some would vote for the Right Wing Pro Brexit Party.
The SNP would form a Scottish combination of socialism, stop Brexit centrism with a dash of nationalism added too much as now0 -
It just wont float.....at least not until everyone's favourite guitarist writes a song about him...Theuniondivvie said:
Is this the start of your bid for the LD leadership?rcs1000 said:Both Jo Swinson and Layla Moran are hideously overrated. Go to YouTube, and after you've watched all my videos, watch them.
Neither of them are impressive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKwQlm-wldA0 -
Mr. Eagles, cheers for that reference. We'll see what happens.0
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Not clear why a person's birthplace or ethnicity 'sounds perfect'Roger said:
PS Just looked her up. Her Father is a Palestinian writer born in Jerusalem.Roger said:
I've never heard of her but who cares. If the contest for PM is likely to be between Mogg Johnson and Corbyn she'll look like a star just by by looking normal and being a Lib Dem I suspect she'll be roughly where the population are. The freaks circus is over.....El_Capitano said:Layla Moran would be terrific - very well positioned to peel off the younger pro-EU crowd who are currently voting for Corbyn despite his Eurosceptic past. The Conservatives should welcome her for that reason.
She sounds perfect!0 -
The massively Pro EU millennials who the LDs ought to attract are the same people who remember them breaking their tuition fees promise and going into coalition with the Tories. That’s why the LDs haven’t been able to make much of the ‘stop Brexit’ USP. A lot of people of my generation aren’t willingly to trust them again.Sean_F said:
I'm surprised they've not been able to make more of their USP of opposing Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:The most pressing question for the Lib Dems is not: who? but: what is their prospectus? They've lost the "mad as hell and not going to take it any more" voters and they haven't picked up any new ones.
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One of the signs of the Impending Apocalypse I believe..TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
https://twitter.com/SkySportsF1/status/1021056950732296192TheScreamingEagles said:
They gave Kimi a 5 second time penalty for a similar transgression in 2016.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Hamilton called to the stewards for his aborted pit lane entry.
If he gets a 5s penalty that puts him 2nd. 10s puts him 4th.
Be a big call to give a retroactive penalty now, though.0 -
PhewSandpit said:
https://twitter.com/SkySportsF1/status/1021056950732296192TheScreamingEagles said:
They gave Kimi a 5 second time penalty for a similar transgression in 2016.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Hamilton called to the stewards for his aborted pit lane entry.
If he gets a 5s penalty that puts him 2nd. 10s puts him 4th.
Be a big call to give a retroactive penalty now, though.0 -
F1: seen a tweet quoting Charlie Whiting that Hamilton could get a 5s or 10s penalty, or just a reprimand.
Just a reprimand, though, would be a rather courageous decision at this stage. Crossing the white line at the exit is a slam dunk penalty.0 -
Another sign.Theuniondivvie said:
One of the signs of the Impending Apocalypse I believe..TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Upon reflection, a 10s penalty would be fair.
Coincidentally, it would also make my Raikkonen bet green.
Edited extra bit: may find out in a few minutes.
https://twitter.com/becclancy/status/10210749705988874240 -
Let’s hope so. In Baku it was made very clear because of the pit lane entry being on a flat our straight, drivers stopping had to be well to the side before lifting off to avoid a serious accident.TheScreamingEagles said:
PhewSandpit said:
https://twitter.com/SkySportsF1/status/1021056950732296192TheScreamingEagles said:
They gave Kimi a 5 second time penalty for a similar transgression in 2016.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Hamilton called to the stewards for his aborted pit lane entry.
If he gets a 5s penalty that puts him 2nd. 10s puts him 4th.
Be a big call to give a retroactive penalty now, though.0 -
That's true, but there are plenty of pro-EU voters aged over 30.The_Apocalypse said:
The massively Pro EU millennials who the LDs ought to attract are the same people who remember them breaking their tuition fees promise and going into coalition with the Tories. That’s why the LDs haven’t been able to make much of the ‘stop Brexit’ USP. A lot of people of my generation aren’t willingly to trust them again.Sean_F said:
I'm surprised they've not been able to make more of their USP of opposing Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:The most pressing question for the Lib Dems is not: who? but: what is their prospectus? They've lost the "mad as hell and not going to take it any more" voters and they haven't picked up any new ones.
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Mr. Sandpit, not so sure I agree. Crossing the pit exit line is a guaranteed penalty. Hamilton had crossed the bollard/marker denoting the entry.
Clarity on the rules would be a good thing. Whatever they decide, someone will be unhappy.0 -
I know that sentence is in English and contains English words, but it does not trigger my comprehension node. Am I to infer that that would be...bad? Good?Sandpit said:Let’s hope so. In Baku it was made very clear because of the pit lane entry being on a flat our straight, drivers stopping had to be well to the side before lifting off to avoid a serious accident.
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He's pretty much ruled himself out after a health scare iirc.Foxy said:
You describe Norman Lamb perfectly, and he already has experience of tripartite working on the NHS.rcs1000 said:Both Jo Swinson and Layla Moran are hideously overrated. Go to YouTube, and after you've watched all my videos, watch them.
Neither of them are impressive.
The Liberals had Jeremy Thorpe, David Steel and Paddy Ashdown in the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s. They were three intelligent and impressive leaders (whatever their other... errr... foibles). And now we're talking about Layla Moran. Youth does not automatically mean substance. Sometimes it just means someone who hasn't lived very long.
The LibDems "bench" simply isn't a very large one, and doesn't have that many figures with substance. It needs someone with energy (that counts Cable out), but also someone with intelligence, passion and communication skills. It needs someone who can be seen as a Cabinet minister in a coalition government. It needs someone who can work out what niche the Liberal Democrats can fill in the next decade.
Sadly, I don't see anyone who fills that role.0 -
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I'm not sure that there are all THAT many massive pro-EU people around, or anti-EU people either. There are lots who feel quite sure one way or the other. Fewer who will cast their votes on that issue alone. As the LibDems have made it their only noticeable issue, they're limiting their appeal to the subset of pro-EU voters who care more about that than anything.The_Apocalypse said:
The massively Pro EU millennials who the LDs ought to attract are the same people who remember them breaking their tuition fees promise and going into coalition with the Tories. That’s why the LDs haven’t been able to make much of the ‘stop Brexit’ USP. A lot of people of my generation aren’t willingly to trust them again.Sean_F said:
I'm surprised they've not been able to make more of their USP of opposing Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:The most pressing question for the Lib Dems is not: who? but: what is their prospectus? They've lost the "mad as hell and not going to take it any more" voters and they haven't picked up any new ones.
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There’s a number of rules about keeping the correct side of white lines while entering and leaving the pits - but he stayed out. Crossing the pit exit line is okay if you’re on the track. I think Lewis is okay as long as he didn’t get in someone’s way.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, not so sure I agree. Crossing the pit exit line is a guaranteed penalty. Hamilton had crossed the bollard/marker denoting the entry.
Clarity on the rules would be a good thing. Whatever they decide, someone will be unhappy.0 -
The average LD general election voter is now a highly educated, wealthy staunch Remainer living in somewhere posh like Bath or Oxford or Edinburgh or Richmond Park.rkrkrk said:
Agree that's the question. For a long time they positioned themselves as sort of slightly left wing, pro civil liberties and anti-Iraq war. They've lost that crowd to Labour now.AlastairMeeks said:The most pressing question for the Lib Dems is not: who? but: what is their prospectus? They've lost the "mad as hell and not going to take it any more" voters and they haven't picked up any new ones.
The beard and sandals brigade of left leaning hippies and students have now largely gone to Corbyn Labour0 -
That's a hurdle nobody in British politics could clearrcs1000 said:Go to YouTube, and after you've watched all my videos, watch them.
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Mr. Sandpit, hmm. I thought he aborted the pit entry at the last possible moment.0
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Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.0
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I think Mercedes will argue that Hamilton crossing the line made no difference to the race result, if he hadn't crossed and had just driven through the pit lane he still would have come out ahead of Bottas and Kimi still would have come out behind both of them after he pitted for the US tyres. In that light a penalty doesn't make sense since no advantage was gained.0
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Sorry. There’s a stewards’ enquiry into an incident in today’s Grand Prix, concerning winner Lewis Hamilton. If he is penalised he may lose the win. People have bets on the result which still isn’t confirmed more than two hours after the race finished.viewcode said:
I know that sentence is in English and contains English words, but it does not trigger my comprehension node. Am I to infer that that would be...bad? Good?Sandpit said:Let’s hope so. In Baku it was made very clear because of the pit lane entry being on a flat our straight, drivers stopping had to be well to the side before lifting off to avoid a serious accident.
It appears that Betfair have already settled their markets with what may be the wrong result.0 -
Ah, I see. Thank you.Sandpit said:
Sorry. There’s a stewards’ enquiry into an incident in today’s Grand Prix, concerning winner Lewis Hamilton. If he is penalised he may lose the win. People have bets on the result which still isn’t confirmed more than two hours after the race finished.viewcode said:
I know that sentence is in English and contains English words, but it does not trigger my comprehension node. Am I to infer that that would be...bad? Good?Sandpit said:Let’s hope so. In Baku it was made very clear because of the pit lane entry being on a flat our straight, drivers stopping had to be well to the side before lifting off to avoid a serious accident.
It appears that Betfair have already settled their markets with what may be the wrong result.0 -
Mr. Max, your first mistake was expecting the rules of F1 to make sense
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Naughty, naughty Robert. You know that there is a big overlap between the Stop Brexit Centrists, the Right Wing Pro-Brexists and the Right Wing Anti-Immigrationists, putting the Jezziah on 64%rcs1000 said:
So:HYUFD said:There is certainly scope for a new centrist party to be formed out of the LDs which was what Cable was discussing at a dinner when the vote he missed was held. 33% of voters would support a new centrist anti Brexit Party with Yougov today though it may need a more charismatic leader than Cable or Moran to lead it.
Yougov also had 38% support for a new right wing pro Brexit Party and 24% for a new hard right anti immigration nationalist party. The scope is there for a wholesale realignment along the faultlines developing in much of global politics today between a Corbynite socialist hard Left party, a liberal centrist party and a nationalist right wing party and a populist far right anti immigration party
33% Stop Brexit Centrists
38% Right Wing Pro Brexit
24% Right Wing Anti Immigration
leaving...
2% Corbyn Labour Party
1% George Osborne Tories
1% SNP
1% Others
?0 -
7 out of the 8 seats the LDs gained at the 2017 general election voted Remain in the EU referendum, the only exception was EastbourneMikeSmithson said:Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
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Indeed, all of these contradictions will help Mercedes make a logical case that nothing was gained by Hamilton's move and they and the FIA will have the telemetry to prove it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Max, your first mistake was expecting the rules of F1 to make sense
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Mr. Max, I have some sympathy with that position. But summoning Hamilton just to wag your finger, hours after the race ended, is weird and pointless.
I think he'll get a 5s penalty. Because that is the result that would annoy me the most.0 -
Excellent point. And Eastbourne shows that with the right candidate they can do well in very Brexity seats. If I were a Lib Dem party manager I'd be studying how that was done very closely.MikeSmithson said:Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
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I think it will be no further action or a reprimand. This was one of the great races and the FIA will have to take that into account.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Max, I have some sympathy with that position. But summoning Hamilton just to wag your finger, hours after the race ended, is weird and pointless.
I think he'll get a 5s penalty. Because that is the result that would annoy me the most.0 -
Is anyone else getting targeted adverts on Twitter for Robert's videos?viewcode said:
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Minor stroke. Brought on by pressure of work, it was thought.rottenborough said:
He's pretty much ruled himself out after a health scare iirc.Foxy said:
You describe Norman Lamb perfectly, and he already has experience of tripartite working on the NHS.rcs1000 said:Both Jo Swinson and Layla Moran are hideously overrated. Go to YouTube, and after you've watched all my videos, watch them.
Neither of them are impressive.
The Liberals had Jeremy Thorpe, David Steel and Paddy Ashdown in the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s. They were three intelligent and impressive leaders (whatever their other... errr... foibles). And now we're talking about Layla Moran. Youth does not automatically mean substance. Sometimes it just means someone who hasn't lived very long.
The LibDems "bench" simply isn't a very large one, and doesn't have that many figures with substance. It needs someone with energy (that counts Cable out), but also someone with intelligence, passion and communication skills. It needs someone who can be seen as a Cabinet minister in a coalition government. It needs someone who can work out what niche the Liberal Democrats can fill in the next decade.
Sadly, I don't see anyone who fills that role.0 -
German GP Race Director’s Event Notes.
https://www.fia.com/file/70745/download?token=OO5Dtk1p
8) Lines or bollards at the pit entry and pit exit
8.1 In accordance with Chapter 4 (Section 5) of Appendix L to the ISC drivers must keep to the right of the white line at the pit exit when leaving the pits, no part of any car leaving the pits may cross this line.
8.2 For safety reasons drivers must stay to the right of the bollard at the pit entry when entering the pits.
Note that Hamilton didn’t enter the pit lane itself, he didn’t pass the pit speed limit line.0 -
St Ives was another strong LD effort in a seat which presumably voted LEAVE overall (though the Isles of Scilly voted to REMAIN). Tom Brake held Carshalton & Wallington though Sutton Borough voted LEAVE while Sarah Olney lost Richmond Park even though Richmond voted 69-31 to REMAIN.Recidivist said:
Excellent point. And Eastbourne shows that with the right candidate they can do well in very Brexity seats. If I were a Lib Dem party manager I'd be studying how that was done very closely.MikeSmithson said:Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
As OGH says, those Conservative commentators who see everything through the prism of Brexit and the 2016 Referendum aren't getting it right. We are told 408 constituencies voted LEAVE - how many of these did the Conservatives actually win ?0 -
Reprimand it is. Phew!MaxPB said:
I think it will be no further action or a reprimand. This was one of the great races and the FIA will have to take that into account.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Max, I have some sympathy with that position. But summoning Hamilton just to wag your finger, hours after the race ended, is weird and pointless.
I think he'll get a 5s penalty. Because that is the result that would annoy me the most.
https://twitter.com/F1/status/1021086678897786880
https://twitter.com/tedkravitz/status/10210868648397086730 -
Boo!
What a waste of time.0 -
Eastbourne shows that the LibDems could recapture a seat they had previously held.Recidivist said:
Excellent point. And Eastbourne shows that with the right candidate they can do well in very Brexity seats. If I were a Lib Dem party manager I'd be studying how that was done very closely.MikeSmithson said:Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
Not too many lessons to be learnt there.0 -
Excellent. Would have been shit to see Lewis lose that win for something so trivial.Sandpit said:
Reprimand it is. Phew!MaxPB said:
I think it will be no further action or a reprimand. This was one of the great races and the FIA will have to take that into account.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Max, I have some sympathy with that position. But summoning Hamilton just to wag your finger, hours after the race ended, is weird and pointless.
I think he'll get a 5s penalty. Because that is the result that would annoy me the most.
https://twitter.com/F1/status/1021086678897786880
https://twitter.com/tedkravitz/status/10210868648397086730 -
Lloyd was the former MP and ran a typical LD campaign focused almost entirely on local issues, so to win Leave voting pro Brexit seats the LDs don't mention Brexit, to win Remain voting seats they mention nothing but opposition to BrexitRecidivist said:
Excellent point. And Eastbourne shows that with the right candidate they can do well in very Brexity seats. If I were a Lib Dem party manager I'd be studying how that was done very closely.MikeSmithson said:Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
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I think we are all happy except for Mr Dancer, who would have had a winning bet if he’d got a 10s penalty.MaxPB said:
Excellent. Would have been shit to see Lewis lose that win for something so trivial.Sandpit said:
Reprimand it is. Phew!MaxPB said:
I think it will be no further action or a reprimand. This was one of the great races and the FIA will have to take that into account.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Max, I have some sympathy with that position. But summoning Hamilton just to wag your finger, hours after the race ended, is weird and pointless.
I think he'll get a 5s penalty. Because that is the result that would annoy me the most.
https://twitter.com/F1/status/1021086678897786880
https://twitter.com/tedkravitz/status/10210868648397086730 -
No, but I am getting him recommended on my YouTube. A star is born...williamglenn said:0 -
Whilst I think Mike is right to point out that the Lib Dems won Eastbourne despite it voting leave, we should not forget that Labour backed leaving the EEA etc at the GE.stodge said:
St Ives was another strong LD effort in a seat which presumably voted LEAVE overall (though the Isles of Scilly voted to REMAIN). Tom Brake held Carshalton & Wallington though Sutton Borough voted LEAVE while Sarah Olney lost Richmond Park even though Richmond voted 69-31 to REMAIN.Recidivist said:
Excellent point. And Eastbourne shows that with the right candidate they can do well in very Brexity seats. If I were a Lib Dem party manager I'd be studying how that was done very closely.MikeSmithson said:Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
As OGH says, those Conservative commentators who see everything through the prism of Brexit and the 2016 Referendum aren't getting it right. We are told 408 constituencies voted LEAVE - how many of these did the Conservatives actually win ?
Us geeks on here might have known that leaving the EU was far from being a certainty, but to a lot of people - especially working class leave voters - it was a done deal.0 -
It’s never been an act of passion. Unlike many others in the EU. It’s been a transactional one. We put something in, we get something out, and we can buy and sell each other’s widgets really easily. Th4 rest of it we weren’t that bothered about. But step by step it started becoming something more than we wanted.NickPalmer said:
I'm not sure that there are all THAT many massive pro-EU people around, or anti-EU people either. There are lots who feel quite sure one way or the other. Fewer who will cast their votes on that issue alone. As the LibDems have made it their only noticeable issue, they're limiting their appeal to the subset of pro-EU voters who care more about that than anything.The_Apocalypse said:
The massively Pro EU millennials who the LDs ought to attract are the same people who remember them breaking their tuition fees promise and going into coalition with the Tories. That’s why the LDs haven’t been able to make much of the ‘stop Brexit’ USP. A lot of people of my generation aren’t willingly to trust them again.Sean_F said:
I'm surprised they've not been able to make more of their USP of opposing Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:The most pressing question for the Lib Dems is not: who? but: what is their prospectus? They've lost the "mad as hell and not going to take it any more" voters and they haven't picked up any new ones.
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252 out of those 408 seats which voted Leave were Tory in 2015 so well over 50%, likely the percentage was not that different in 2017stodge said:
St Ives was another strong LD effort in a seat which presumably voted LEAVE overall (though the Isles of Scilly voted to REMAIN). Tom Brake held Carshalton & Wallington though Sutton Borough voted LEAVE while Sarah Olney lost Richmond Park even though Richmond voted 69-31 to REMAIN.Recidivist said:
Excellent point. And Eastbourne shows that with the right candidate they can do well in very Brexity seats. If I were a Lib Dem party manager I'd be studying how that was done very closely.MikeSmithson said:Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
As OGH says, those Conservative commentators who see everything through the prism of Brexit and the 2016 Referendum aren't getting it right. We are told 408 constituencies voted LEAVE - how many of these did the Conservatives actually win ?
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c60 -
Well that itself is a lesson to people thinking about a new centre party. The old one isn't out of business yet.MarqueeMark said:
Eastbourne shows that the LibDems could recapture a seat they had previously held.Recidivist said:
Excellent point. And Eastbourne shows that with the right candidate they can do well in very Brexity seats. If I were a Lib Dem party manager I'd be studying how that was done very closely.MikeSmithson said:Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
Not too many lessons to be learnt there.0 -
Only a matter of time before UKIP have a new social media star signing...viewcode said:
No, but I am getting him recommended on my YouTube. A star is born...williamglenn said:0 -
Except, Cable seems to think it is......Recidivist said:
Well that itself is a lesson to people thinking about a new centre party. The old one isn't out of business yet.MarqueeMark said:
Eastbourne shows that the LibDems could recapture a seat they had previously held.Recidivist said:
Excellent point. And Eastbourne shows that with the right candidate they can do well in very Brexity seats. If I were a Lib Dem party manager I'd be studying how that was done very closely.MikeSmithson said:Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
Not too many lessons to be learnt there.0 -
It was. Tories lost seats. Labour won Leave seats.HYUFD said:
252 out of those 408 seats which voted Leave were Tory in 2015 so well over 50%, likely the percentage was not that different in 2017stodge said:
St Ives was another strong LD effort in a seat which presumably voted LEAVE overall (though the Isles of Scilly voted to REMAIN). Tom Brake held Carshalton & Wallington though Sutton Borough voted LEAVE while Sarah Olney lost Richmond Park even though Richmond voted 69-31 to REMAIN.Recidivist said:
Excellent point. And Eastbourne shows that with the right candidate they can do well in very Brexity seats. If I were a Lib Dem party manager I'd be studying how that was done very closely.MikeSmithson said:Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
As OGH says, those Conservative commentators who see everything through the prism of Brexit and the 2016 Referendum aren't getting it right. We are told 408 constituencies voted LEAVE - how many of these did the Conservatives actually win ?
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c60 -
I realise you're not a fan but we don't know what was discussed and by whom. IF there are individuals seeking to set up a new "centre" party it's natural they should establish a line of communication with the LDs just as the Limehouse Four did back in 1981.MarqueeMark said:
Except, Cable seems to think it is......
It may come to nothing, it may not.
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So, thinking this through how many Labour MPs would need to jump ship to make a ne central party credible? 50? The SDP managed with less but they had names and heft that any such party is going to need.
I am really not sure I can see this.0 -
The question is how many Conservatives will "jump ship".DavidL said:So, thinking this through how many Labour MPs would need to jump ship to make a ne central party credible? 50? The SDP managed with less but they had names and heft that any such party is going to need.
I am really not sure I can see this.0 -
The SDP suffered an early setback by only getting 1 Tory defection. It meant they were only credible as an alternative to Labour. The dynamics of a party with 50:50 from the big 2 would be quite different.DavidL said:So, thinking this through how many Labour MPs would need to jump ship to make a ne central party credible? 50? The SDP managed with less but they had names and heft that any such party is going to need.
I am really not sure I can see this.
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Blair really doesn’t help his case, does he? I think he’s further away from the left than many of his defenders these days.
https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1021093613965635593?s=210 -
You participate in talks only to pull out at the last minute as it is “unworkable”MTimT said:Two questions:
1. Why would Cable, as head of the only remaining centrist party, be in talks to set up a new centrist party rather than be focused on making his existing centrist party a real force?
2. Why would anyone be interested in a new centrist party set up by a failed leader of a centrist party who appears to be abandoning the party he leads?0 -
Half plus one, so 130. They’d need enough MPs to become the Official Opposition.DavidL said:So, thinking this through how many Labour MPs would need to jump ship to make a ne central party credible? 50? The SDP managed with less but they had names and heft that any such party is going to need.
I am really not sure I can see this.
There’s not many Conservatives that will defect, maybe Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston?0
