On topic, LibDemvoice is heavily censoring comments on its public forum that criticise Vince - I know this because my own comments posted three times under different threads have been deleted without publication. I can only assume that many LibDem members are unhappy with Vince's failing leadership and the site is acting under instructions to keep as much of this under wraps as it can.
A sad day when the discussion site of a supposedly liberal party restricts free speech to a greater extent than ConHome or sites managed by Labour activists.
I agree that it's probably getting close to time for Cable to go (but I didn't want him as leader to begin with anyway) but I'm not yet convinced that Moran is the answer. She seems likeable enough and her ideas are sound. However, she comes across in the media in a 2nd tier kind of way... However, I'm open to persuasion - as so many other Lib Dems do think she's the answer then I'm probably missing something.
Pretty disgraceful. When I was last working in Beirut a very knowledgeable and politically interested city the only thing that united a very diverse population was agreement that Saudi Arabia was the devil's own creation.
I agree that it's probably getting close to time for Cable to go (but I didn't want him as leader to begin with anyway) but I'm not yet convinced that Moran is the answer. She seems likeable enough and her ideas are sound. However, she comes across in the media in a 2nd tier kind of way... However, I'm open to persuasion - as so many other Lib Dems do think she's the answer then I'm probably missing something.
In its current position the party is second tier. It doesn't have to put someone forward who can be PM. It just has to be up there with the likes of Bartley, Batten and Wood. And project a bit of dynamism and imagination.
Pretty disgraceful. When I was last working in Beirut a very knowledgeable and politically interested city the only thing that united a very diverse population was agreement that Saudi Arabia was the devil's own creation.
I'm no fan of Tony Blair but this depends on what he's advising them on, surely? If it's expanding women's rights or rolling out a welfare state to the marginalised, that is one thing. While advising them on defence or security matters would be another.
Dunno if there are odds available on the first hard right/populist leader of a mainstream Western European country, but he looks like an interesting bet.
No, I hadn't: there are too many right-wing nutters on the Continent for me to keep track. What bought him to your attention?
@Sean_F True, but I was thinking the older you get the less Remainers there are. @NickPalmer Thats a good point. Brexit might not motivate voters on their left in the way it does voters on the Right. @Foxy I think I may have read about that sometime ago. It seems like several of our recent governments have this kind of relationship with Saudi Arabia, unfortunately. @Roger Blair doing this doesn’t surprise me. It’s pretty hard to know where he fits on the political spectrum these days.
On topic, LibDemvoice is heavily censoring comments on its public forum that criticise Vince - I know this because my own comments posted three times under different threads have been deleted without publication. I can only assume that many LibDem members are unhappy with Vince's failing leadership and the site is acting under instructions to keep as much of this under wraps as it can.
A sad day when the discussion site of a supposedly liberal party restricts free speech to a greater extent than ConHome or sites managed by Labour activists.
A LD and Liberal member since 1973, I long ago realised that LD Voice is representative of the small elitest group that got us into this mess in the first place. Layla? Why not?
In its current position the party is second tier. It doesn't have to put someone forward who can be PM. It just has to be up there with the likes of Bartley, Batten and Wood. And project a bit of dynamism and imagination.
Yes, I agree. By saying "second tier" I was talking in relative terms within the party itself rather than comparing us to other parties. Right now need we someone with a bit of charisma just to get noticed and that's, I'm afraid, not something I see in Moran (though she might gain it). I'm certainly not against her becoming leader... it's just that I can see in more evidence the qualities I think are needed for the job in other of our MPs at the moment.
In its current position the party is second tier. It doesn't have to put someone forward who can be PM. It just has to be up there with the likes of Bartley, Batten and Wood. And project a bit of dynamism and imagination.
Yes, I agree. By "second tier" as I was talking in relative terms within the party itself rather than comparing us to other parties. Right now need someone with a bit of charisma and that's, I'm afraid, not something I see in Moran (though she might gain it). I'm certainly not against her becoming leader... it's just that I can see in more evidence the qualities I think are needed for the job in other of our MPs at the moment.
If charisma is the key criterion we are hardly well placed right now.
It's quite obvious that the LibDems should be the party that principally champions the interests of the young - a position that was being developed quite successfully until Clegg came along and trashed it. Corbyn has captured this mantle yet his prospectus is no more honest than was the red bus of the Leave campaign. A big step toward regaining that path would be the election of a younger leader, who would contrast particularly strikingly with Mr C and Mrs M.
The most pressing question for the Lib Dems is not: who? but: what is their prospectus? They've lost the "mad as hell and not going to take it any more" voters and they haven't picked up any new ones.
I'm surprised they've not been able to make more of their USP of opposing Brexit.
The massively Pro EU millennials who the LDs ought to attract are the same people who remember them breaking their tuition fees promise and going into coalition with the Tories. That’s why the LDs haven’t been able to make much of the ‘stop Brexit’ USP. A lot of people of my generation aren’t willingly to trust them again.
This is the problem with pushing a polarising narrative. Convincing people that the other party are terrible in all ways then means you can't work with them in any circumstances. That is a recipe for reducing your influence.
Pretty disgraceful. When I was last working in Beirut a very knowledgeable and politically interested city the only thing that united a very diverse population was agreement that Saudi Arabia was the devil's own creation.
I'm no fan of Tony Blair but this depends on what he's advising them on, surely? If it's expanding women's rights or rolling out a welfare state to the marginalised, that is one thing. While advising them on defence or security matters would be another.
No it doesn't. The only sensible line to take with the Saudis is to have nothing to do with them. I confess to having worked for them myself but I was a little green at the time. Until you have tried to shoot a hair commercial without ever seeing any skin and hair in the same shot it's difficult to put a scale to their madness. Not allowing women to drive is quite rational by comparison.
Dunno if there are odds available on the first hard right/populist leader of a mainstream Western European country, but he looks like an interesting bet.
No, I hadn't: there are too many right-wing nutters on the Continent for me to keep track. What bought him to your attention?
I was arsing about on Twitter, trying to find out what really happened in the Lubeck attack. This, incidentally, is still not clear, some say terror, some say nutter, German media are terribly censorious and nervously timid about this jihadi/refugee stuff, you usually have to go to non-German news sites to get any details.
So I ended up on Dutch sites where I got better news, and by the way discovered that the Dutch have a Muslim grooming/rape problem possibly as bad as ours, and that, in turn, led me to discover Mr Baudet.
Ah, t'Internet. It's endlessly distracting but I am fairly certain I was a less angry person before its invention.
I thought the right wing line here was child grooming was down to Pakistani culture? How many Pakistanis are there in Holland?
The problem with defections is not just who might come for ideological reasons but who could actually then hold their seats.
With the first one and in regards to Labour you need people who largely agree with say Anna Soubry. If you look at Labours last manifesto how many MPs in the Labour Party would find a much more agreeable platform with Soubry that would cause them to defect.
Which isn't to say even Soubry herself would defect, which is part of the problem without many Tories the project is dead, if you can get decent numbers (20-30) then it seems difficult to get any substantial numbers (say 50+) from Labour and a coherent platform close enough for everyone to find it worth defecting.
To use just a brexit example, though there would be plenty on non brexit as well, Caroline Flint seems unlikely to join the new 'stop brexit' party.
A repeat SDP (largely labour) would probably do well to do what SDP did.
The other problem is MPs seats, if you are in a pro brexit Tory area or a left wing Labour area then it might not matter too much what the MP thinks if they hold back for fear of losing their seat or they do defect and just lose their seat back to the party anyway.
Though obviously nothing is written in stone (I think Labour try to avoid that now) and plenty of people have been wrong about British politics the last few years. I just think large scale defections from either party seem unlikely for various reasons.
Edit: Also presumably they would all have to agree with the Lib Dems to an extent as well. Whilst people can defect there are often reasons beyond just opportunity that they joined their parties in the first place.
Dunno if there are odds available on the first hard right/populist leader of a mainstream Western European country, but he looks like an interesting bet.
Didn't the bookies pay out on Hitler, Mussolini or Franco?
If charisma is the key criterion we are hardly well placed right now.
It's quite obvious that the LibDems should be the party that principally champions the interests of the young - a position that was being developed quite successfully until Clegg came along and trashed it. Corbyn has captured this mantle yet his prospectus is no more honest than was the red bus of the Leave campaign. A big step toward regaining that path would be the election of a younger leader, who would contrast particularly strikingly with Mr C and Mrs M.
It would contrast with Corbyn for sure - but, false though he is, he's proven that leaders don't need to be young themselves to inspire the young. I don't think it matters so much to contrast with May unless we think she'll be leading the Cons into the GE (I don't think so).
Anyway, as I say, I have nothing against Moran and if she becomes leader I'll be happy to support her as I have nothing that's actually negative to say about her. All I'm saying is that she's not top of my wish list at the moment.
Dunno if there are odds available on the first hard right/populist leader of a mainstream Western European country, but he looks like an interesting bet.
No, I hadn't: there are too many right-wing nutters on the Continent for me to keep track. What bought him to your attention?
I was arsing about on Twitter, trying to find out what really happened in the Lubeck attack. This, incidentally, is still not clear, some say terror, some say nutter, German media are terribly censorious and nervously timid about this jihadi/refugee stuff, you usually have to go to non-German news sites to get any details.
So I ended up on Dutch sites where I got better news, and by the way discovered that the Dutch have a Muslim grooming/rape problem possibly as bad as ours, and that, in turn, led me to discover Mr Baudet.
Ah, t'Internet. It's endlessly distracting but I am fairly certain I was a less angry person before its invention.
I think there's a theory that we were as individuals happier before the internet. Although to be honest I think the flood of information is a good rather than a bad: I would miss the internet if it vanished overnight.
If charisma is the key criterion we are hardly well placed right now.
It's quite obvious that the LibDems should be the party that principally champions the interests of the young - a position that was being developed quite successfully until Clegg came along and trashed it. Corbyn has captured this mantle yet his prospectus is no more honest than was the red bus of the Leave campaign. A big step toward regaining that path would be the election of a younger leader, who would contrast particularly strikingly with Mr C and Mrs M.
It would contrast with Corbyn for sure - but, false though he is, he's proven that leaders don't need to be young themselves to inspire the young. I don't think it matters so much to contrast with May unless we think she'll be leading the Cons into the GE (I don't think so).
Anyway, as I say, I have nothing against Moran and if she becomes leader I'll be happy to support her as I have nothing that's actually negative to say about her. All I'm saying is that she's not top of my wish list at the moment.
We need to get rid of Vince, who is turning into a retired man in a hurry. Like Ashdown he is off talking to others about new party arrangements behind closed doors; the perpetual search for some quick fix via a realignment that isn't going to happen, whilst neglecting the day job of leading the party in Parliament and the country. I know that a fair few members share the unhappiness with his leadership that has recently hit some of the media; just be aware that very little of this is being allowed through to publication on LDVoice.
Blair is advising, but May is selling them bombs and assisting in targetting.
Not so much a war crime as a sales opportunity. Welcome to Global Brexit Britain.
Al Yamamah I with which SA arms sales really kicked off was a terrible thing. It was also a 1986 thing, and II was 1988. The brexit connection is therefore a bit obscure.
We need to get rid of Vince, who is turning into a retired man in a hurry. Like Ashdown he is off talking to others about new party arrangements behind closed doors; the perpetual search for some quick fix via a realignment that isn't going to happen, whilst neglecting the day job of leading the party in Parliament and the country. I know that a fair few members share the unhappiness with his leadership that has recently hit some of the media; just be aware that very little of this is being allowed through to publication on LDVoice.
I agree with everything you say in this paragraph. I think there has been unease with his leadership right from the start and, without telling tales, this surfaces from time to time in my local branch of the party both in formal meetings and in informal conversations.
That he's been seen as a stop-gap right from the start has been more than half of his problem whether within the party itself, in the media or with the general public. We need the next leader to commit to the long haul and to look like they mean to do so.
We need to get rid of Vince, who is turning into a retired man in a hurry. Like Ashdown he is off talking to others about new party arrangements behind closed doors; the perpetual search for some quick fix via a realignment that isn't going to happen, whilst neglecting the day job of leading the party in Parliament and the country. I know that a fair few members share the unhappiness with his leadership that has recently hit some of the media; just be aware that very little of this is being allowed through to publication on LDVoice.
I agree with everything you say in this paragraph. I think there has been unease with his leadership right from the start and, without telling tales, this surfaces from time to time in my local branch of the party both in formal meetings and in informal conversations.
That he's been seen as a stop-gap right from the start has been more than half of his problem whether within the party itself, in the media or with the general public. We need the next leader to commit to the long haul and to look like they mean to do so.
Indeed. The trouble with him being a stopgap is that everyone in the party talks of him this way, but one wonders whether he himself shares that perspective. I suspect he doesn't. But, even if he does, the desire to achieve something *significant* before he goes - such as some half baked attempt at a new party arrangement - the same temptation that led Ashdown into all those secret agreements with Blair - may, at his age, be difficult to resist.
Anyhow, my calling out LDV for its censorship here has, directly or coincidentally, finally seen their letting one of my (relatively innocuous, if critical) posts through to publication.
Raab is a deeply unserious man nominally in charge of a make or break negotiation. Worse again than Davis.
If Raab is saying a deal can be done by October, I think he is echoing May and Barnier. The No Deal posturing is just playing to the gallery and trying to prevent leakage to UKIP.
On reflection, I think you are right. Summarising Raab's incoherent and contradictory remarks, the government needs a deal. Which will be on the EU's terms and will include the NI backstop, unless the EU withdraws it. It won't be Chequers. I wonder how Raab will sell it, assuming he's still around.
So, thinking this through how many Labour MPs would need to jump ship to make a ne central party credible? 50? The SDP managed with less but they had names and heft that any such party is going to need.
I am really not sure I can see this.
The question is how many Conservatives will "jump ship".
That is key. I think a dozen or so Conservatives might jump ship, but I can't think of more.
Yaya Toure had a similar problem Pep Guardiola didn't play him because he didn't like Africans. The fact he was overweight lazy and crap had absolutely nothing to do with it.
Indeed. The trouble with him being a stopgap is that everyone in the party talks of him this way, but one wonders whether he himself shares that perspective. I suspect he doesn't. But, even if he does, the desire to achieve something *significant* before he goes - such as some half baked attempt at a new party arrangement - the same temptation that led Ashdown into all those secret agreements with Blair - may, at his age, be difficult to resist.
Anyhow, my calling out LDV for its censorship here has, directly or coincidentally, finally seen their letting one of my (relatively innocuous, if critical) posts through to publication.
Just read your LDV comment. Yes, you're absolutely right in what you say there too.
Is it correct that VI was Lab 39, Con 38 with current leaders - or was the current leaders question not a conventional VI question?
38/38 with Boris as leader - not much difference to May.
But what is striking is how badly Con does with any of other leading contenders.
Household names to those of us on here who follow politics closely. Total unknowns to most of the general public. I never take any notice of these hypothetical polls. If any are taken for the potential leadership contenders in my own party (Lib Dems) I'll not be influenced by those either.
If your party’s talisman policy is against tuition fees, don’t introduce tuition fees. If your party’s talisman policy is to take a firm stand against Brexit, turn up to vote against a hard Brexit.
Politics is not that hard really. Cable, really ought to go after this mess.
So, thinking this through how many Labour MPs would need to jump ship to make a ne central party credible? 50? The SDP managed with less but they had names and heft that any such party is going to need.
I am really not sure I can see this.
The question is how many Conservatives will "jump ship".
That is key. I think a dozen or so Conservatives might jump ship, but I can't think of more.
Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston.....after that I’m struggling. Definitely not Morgan, Greening, S Hammond, Bob Neill, Grieve and I doubt Ken Clarke.
Raab is a deeply unserious man nominally in charge of a make or break negotiation. Worse again than Davis.
If Raab is saying a deal can be done by October, I think he is echoing May and Barnier. The No Deal posturing is just playing to the gallery and trying to prevent leakage to UKIP.
On reflection, I think you are right. Summarising Raab's incoherent and contradictory remarks, the government needs a deal. Which will be on the EU's terms and will include the NI backstop, unless the EU withdraws it. It won't be Chequers. I wonder how Raab will sell it, assuming he's still around.
How do they get around the fact there won't be a majority in parliament for any kind of deal like Chequers (especially diluted and worsened), nor will there be a majority for No Deal.
Brexit fogs my brain. The Commons does have a vote on this, no? Or can they just force it through?
Yaya Toure had a similar problem Pep Guardiola didn't play him because he didn't like Africans. The fact he was overweight lazy and crap had absolutely nothing to do with it.
Yaya Toure had a similar problem Pep Guardiola didn't play him because he didn't like Africans. The fact he was overweight lazy and crap had absolutely nothing to do with it.
There was also that case at West Ham where a scout (I think) got suspended for explicitly stating that their policy was not to buy Africans because they were too high maintenance (or something like that).
Personally I don't have a problem with that. Ultimately it is up to the club to do what they think is in their best interest. If West Ham don't want Africans, that's what source of talent they aren't considering. If Athletic Bilbao don't want anyone other than Basques playing for them, fine.
The footballing problem with Ozil is he is the type of player who attracts criticism because of his style, in some ways Berbatov had a similar thing at United and was often considered lazy. I have less of a solid opinion on Ozil but I did think that some of the criticism of Berbatov was OTT and it wouldn't surprise me if the same was true of Ozil his statistics are always impressive but he struggles when the team struggle and seems to be one of the fall guys when things go wrong.
Raab is a deeply unserious man nominally in charge of a make or break negotiation. Worse again than Davis.
If Raab is saying a deal can be done by October, I think he is echoing May and Barnier. The No Deal posturing is just playing to the gallery and trying to prevent leakage to UKIP.
On reflection, I think you are right. Summarising Raab's incoherent and contradictory remarks, the government needs a deal. Which will be on the EU's terms and will include the NI backstop, unless the EU withdraws it. It won't be Chequers. I wonder how Raab will sell it, assuming he's still around.
How do they get around the fact there won't be a majority in parliament for any kind of deal like Chequers (especially diluted and worsened), nor will there be a majority for No Deal.
Brexit fogs my brain. The Commons does have a vote on this, no? Or can they just force it through?
It's too hot. My thoughts coagulate. I forget.
There seems to be no majority for any course of action.
Raab is a deeply unserious man nominally in charge of a make or break negotiation. Worse again than Davis.
If Raab is saying a deal can be done by October, I think he is echoing May and Barnier. The No Deal posturing is just playing to the gallery and trying to prevent leakage to UKIP.
On reflection, I think you are right. Summarising Raab's incoherent and contradictory remarks, the government needs a deal. Which will be on the EU's terms and will include the NI backstop, unless the EU withdraws it. It won't be Chequers. I wonder how Raab will sell it, assuming he's still around.
How do they get around the fact there won't be a majority in parliament for any kind of deal like Chequers (especially diluted and worsened), nor will there be a majority for No Deal.
Brexit fogs my brain. The Commons does have a vote on this, no? Or can they just force it through?
It's too hot. My thoughts coagulate. I forget.
No Deal, as in a complete crash out, is the default, unless Parliament passes a deal.
One assumes that, despite all the posturing at this stage, when presented with a very stark “This deal or crash out” binary choice the vast majority of MPs are going to beck the deal.
Raab is a deeply unserious man nominally in charge of a make or break negotiation. Worse again than Davis.
If Raab is saying a deal can be done by October, I think he is echoing May and Barnier. The No Deal posturing is just playing to the gallery and trying to prevent leakage to UKIP.
On reflection, I think you are right. Summarising Raab's incoherent and contradictory remarks, the government needs a deal. Which will be on the EU's terms and will include the NI backstop, unless the EU withdraws it. It won't be Chequers. I wonder how Raab will sell it, assuming he's still around.
How do they get around the fact there won't be a majority in parliament for any kind of deal like Chequers (especially diluted and worsened), nor will there be a majority for No Deal.
Brexit fogs my brain. The Commons does have a vote on this, no? Or can they just force it through?
It's too hot. My thoughts coagulate. I forget.
No Deal, as in a complete crash out, is the default, unless Parliament passes a deal.
One assumes that, despite all the posturing at this stage, when presented with a very stark “This deal or crash out” binary choice the vast majority of MPs are going to beck the deal.
The footballing problem with Ozil is he is the type of player who attracts criticism because of his style, in some ways Berbatov had a similar thing at United and was often considered lazy. I have less of a solid opinion on Ozil but I did think that some of the criticism of Berbatov was OTT and it wouldn't surprise me if the same was true of Ozil his statistics are always impressive but he struggles when the team struggle and seems to be one of the fall guys when things go wrong.
I can't really comment on Berbatov as I didn't get to watch him week in week out. However, I was a massive fan of his. I often wonder if Arsenal had sold Henry in 06, could they have got Berbatov as a replacement? I think the last time I saw him play was for Fulham at the Emirates in 2012. He was the best player on the pitch.
I have watched Ozil week in week out since 2013. He puts a good ball into the box, especially from set pieces. If he has time on the ball he can pick a pass. The problem is that he does not hold on to the ball when under pressure from opponents. He is not an out ball. He is one footed. And when the chips are down on a wet and windy night at Goodison Park, he goes missing (if he's bothered to make the journey in the first place).
Whilst I think some of the stuff he's had to put up with since the Erdogan meeting is disgraceful, I think he's wrong about this:
For me, it didn't matter who was President, it matter that it was the President. Having respect for political office is a view that I'm sure both the Queen and Prime Minister Theresa May share when they too hosted Erdogan in London.
Mesut is not a politician. He is a footballer. He does not have to meet these people (Johan Cruyff even boycotted World Cup 78). And it was the "to my president" signature that clearly irked people in Germany.
Raab is a deeply unserious man nominally in charge of a make or break negotiation. Worse again than Davis.
If Raab is saying a deal can be done by October, I think he is echoing May and Barnier. The No Deal posturing is just playing to the gallery and trying to prevent leakage to UKIP.
On reflection, I think you are right. Summarising Raab's incoherent and contradictory remarks, the government needs a deal. Which will be on the EU's terms and will include the NI backstop, unless the EU withdraws it. It won't be Chequers. I wonder how Raab will sell it, assuming he's still around.
How do they get around the fact there won't be a majority in parliament for any kind of deal like Chequers (especially diluted and worsened), nor will there be a majority for No Deal.
Brexit fogs my brain. The Commons does have a vote on this, no? Or can they just force it through?
It's too hot. My thoughts coagulate. I forget.
Have that second G&T...
Seriously. I've forgotten. Brexit is such a clustershambles, one gets lost. Didn't the Commons win the right to say Yay or Nay to any deal? Or am I delusional?
As far as I understand it, they will have a vote on any deal, but not on no deal - as it's the default situation. So no deal doesn't need a majority. Do nothing and we crash out - with all the legal and practical horrors that entails - hence why last year some MPs were angry about the 'meaningful vote' because they said in practice it wasn't meaningful - as no one could be stupid or malign enough to vote 'no deal', whatever the PM came back with. How far we have come.
Is it correct that VI was Lab 39, Con 38 with current leaders - or was the current leaders question not a conventional VI question?
38/38 with Boris as leader - not much difference to May.
But what is striking is how badly Con does with any of other leading contenders.
Household names to those of us on here who follow politics closely. Total unknowns to most of the general public. I never take any notice of these hypothetical polls. If any are taken for the potential leadership contenders in my own party (Lib Dems) I'll not be influenced by those either.
Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt are hardly unknowns to the public, Gove was along with Boris the key figure in the Leave campaign and Hunt was Health Secretary and is now Foreign Secretary. Javid maybe but even he is now Home Secretary. Mogg who was also included is probably the most high profile Tory backbencher.
What is clear is only Boris out of all those surveyed does any better than May against Corbyn Labour
Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
Excellent point. And Eastbourne shows that with the right candidate they can do well in very Brexity seats. If I were a Lib Dem party manager I'd be studying how that was done very closely.
St Ives was another strong LD effort in a seat which presumably voted LEAVE overall (though the Isles of Scilly voted to REMAIN). Tom Brake held Carshalton & Wallington though Sutton Borough voted LEAVE while Sarah Olney lost Richmond Park even though Richmond voted 69-31 to REMAIN.
As OGH says, those Conservative commentators who see everything through the prism of Brexit and the 2016 Referendum aren't getting it right. We are told 408 constituencies voted LEAVE - how many of these did the Conservatives actually win ?
252 out of those 408 seats which voted Leave were Tory in 2015 so well over 50%, likely the percentage was not that different in 2017
It was. Tories lost seats. Labour won Leave seats.
Labour also won Tory Remain seats, especially in London, all the seats the LDs gained in England were Tory Remain seats and the Tories gained nearly 10 Leave seats in England which balanced out the 12 Remain seats they won in Scotland.
So over 50% of Leave seats were almost certainly Tory in 2017 too
Raab is a deeply unserious man nominally in charge of a make or break negotiation. Worse again than Davis.
If Raab is saying a deal can be done by October, I think he is echoing May and Barnier. The No Deal posturing is just playing to the gallery and trying to prevent leakage to UKIP.
On reflection, I think you are right. Summarising Raab's incoherent and contradictory remarks, the government needs a deal. Which will be on the EU's terms and will include the NI backstop, unless the EU withdraws it. It won't be Chequers. I wonder how Raab will sell it, assuming he's still around.
How do they get around the fact there won't be a majority in parliament for any kind of deal like Chequers (especially diluted and worsened), nor will there be a majority for No Deal.
Brexit fogs my brain. The Commons does have a vote on this, no? Or can they just force it through?
It's too hot. My thoughts coagulate. I forget.
No Deal, as in a complete crash out, is the default, unless Parliament passes a deal.
One assumes that, despite all the posturing at this stage, when presented with a very stark “This deal or crash out” binary choice the vast majority of MPs are going to beck the deal.
That is probably the case, though, if you see my link to the IFG notes on Brexit, it is not absolutely definite e.g. It is surely possible parliament would vote down May's Deal, knowing/hoping that she would then resign, meaning either a new election or a new PM with a new EU plan, and in either case, probably a request to the EU to extend A50. That is to say: chaos.
Any request for an A50 extension would have to come from the government (rather than Parliament, except via primary legislation) and require unanimity from the EU27 side. That’s a very high bar to stop the clock.
The Fixed Term Parliaments Act (thanks Nick Clegg) also makes it much more difficult to force an election unless both major parties are supportive (as was the case in 2017).
So, thinking this through how many Labour MPs would need to jump ship to make a ne central party credible? 50? The SDP managed with less but they had names and heft that any such party is going to need.
I am really not sure I can see this.
The question is how many Conservatives will "jump ship".
That is key. I think a dozen or so Conservatives might jump ship, but I can't think of more.
Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston.....after that I’m struggling. Definitely not Morgan, Greening, S Hammond, Bob Neill, Grieve and I doubt Ken Clarke.
I think they'd almost be better off without Tories to start with - the first task for a new party will be cannibalising the Labour vote and marginalising Corbyn and his gang - that's probably easier to do as a 'real Labour' Social Democratic party than if you give off the idea you're a bit of an inside the bubble stitch-up. You'd want Tory defections later in the day - rather like Blair started getting.
Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
LDs only got 12 seats overall didn't they? Even the SNP got more
Dunno if there are odds available on the first hard right/populist leader of a mainstream Western European country, but he looks like an interesting bet.
He will have competition from Matteo Salvini in Italy who leads Lega Nord and Jimmie Akesson who leads the Swedish Democrats both of whose parties lead a number of polls in their respective nations
Raab is a deeply unserious man nominally in charge of a make or break negotiation. Worse again than Davis.
If Raab is saying a deal can be done by October, I think he is echoing May and Barnier. The No Deal posturing is just playing to the gallery and trying to prevent leakage to UKIP.
On reflection, I think you are right. Summarising Raab's incoherent and contradictory remarks, the government needs a deal. Which will be on the EU's terms and will include the NI backstop, unless the EU withdraws it. It won't be Chequers. I wonder how Raab will sell it, assuming he's still around.
How do they get around the fact there won't be a majority in parliament for any kind of deal like Chequers (especially diluted and worsened), nor will there be a majority for No Deal.
Brexit fogs my brain. The Commons does have a vote on this, no? Or can they just force it through?
It's too hot. My thoughts coagulate. I forget.
No Deal, as in a complete crash out, is the default, unless Parliament passes a deal.
One assumes that, despite all the posturing at this stage, when presented with a very stark “This deal or crash out” binary choice the vast majority of MPs are going to beck the deal.
That is probably the case, though, if you see my link to the IFG notes on Brexit, it is not absolutely definite e.g. It is surely possible parliament would vote down May's Deal, knowing/hoping that she would then resign, meaning either a new election or a new PM with a new EU plan, and in either case, probably a request to the EU to extend A50. That is to say: chaos.
Any request for an A50 extension would have to come from the government (rather than Parliament, except via primary legislation) and require unanimity from the EU27 side. That’s a very high bar to stop the clock.
The Fixed Term Parliaments Act (thanks Nick Clegg) also makes it much more difficult to force an election unless both major parties are supportive (as was the case in 2017).
Noises off (per the Guardian story today) is that the Man from Del Monte EU will say no to an extension unless the political background in the UK has changed.
Layla Moran would be terrific - very well positioned to peel off the younger pro-EU crowd who are currently voting for Corbyn despite his Eurosceptic past. The Conservatives should welcome her for that reason.
I've never heard of her but who cares. If the contest for PM is likely to be between Mogg Johnson and Corbyn she'll look like a star just by by looking normal and being a Lib Dem I suspect she'll be roughly where the population are. The freaks circus is over.....
PS Just looked her up. Her Father is a Palestinian writer born in Jerusalem.
She sounds perfect!
What's your source as I understood her father was a British diplomat?
His biggest problem is he was out of form at the world cup - I do however think the picture with Erdogan was misjudged. Obviously one doesn't win a world cup winner's medal without being a top player.
Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
Excellent point. And Eastbourne shows that with the right candidate they can do well in very Brexity seats. If I were a Lib Dem party manager I'd be studying how that was done very closely.
I think it was due to Plato campaigning for the other candidate.
So, thinking this through how many Labour MPs would need to jump ship to make a ne central party credible? 50? The SDP managed with less but they had names and heft that any such party is going to need.
I am really not sure I can see this.
The question is how many Conservatives will "jump ship".
That is key. I think a dozen or so Conservatives might jump ship, but I can't think of more.
Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston.....after that I’m struggling. Definitely not Morgan, Greening, S Hammond, Bob Neill, Grieve and I doubt Ken Clarke.
I think they'd almost be better off without Tories to start with - the first task for a new party will be cannibalising the Labour vote and marginalising Corbyn and his gang - that's probably easier to do as a 'real Labour' Social Democratic party than if you give off the idea you're a bit of an inside the bubble stitch-up. You'd want Tory defections later in the day - rather like Blair started getting.
The moment you jump ship, you lose the "I have not left the party, the party has left me" narrative. Given how polarised our parties are at the moment, you really do risk being cast out into the outer darkness. Will voters crystallise around Leave / Remain positions at the next election, or traditional parties?
Raab is a deeply unserious man nominally in charge of a make or break negotiation. Worse again than Davis.
If Raab is saying a deal can be done by October, I think he is echoing May and Barnier. The No Deal posturing is just playing to the gallery and trying to prevent leakage to UKIP.
On reflection, I think you are right. Summarising Raab's incoherent and contradictory remarks, the government needs a deal. Which will be on the EU's terms and will include the NI backstop, unless the EU withdraws it. It won't be Chequers. I wonder how Raab will sell it, assuming he's still around.
How do they get around the fact there won't be a majority in parliament for any kind of deal like Chequers (especially diluted and worsened), nor will there be a majority for No Deal.
Brexit fogs my brain. The Commons does have a vote on this, no? Or can they just force it through?
It's too hot. My thoughts coagulate. I forget.
Whether there's a vote in parlament or not that there is no support for either option will lead to something drastic.
Dunno if there are odds available on the first hard right/populist leader of a mainstream Western European country, but he looks like an interesting bet.
He will have competition from Matteo Salvini in Italy who leads Lega Nord and Jimmie Akesson of the Swedish Democrats both of whose parties lead a number of polls in their respective nations
True. Forgot about Italy. Europe is so bonkers right now.
I just can't see Sweden doing it, even though they are seriously roiled by migration problems.
Anyway, enough.
Poldark!!!
The Swedish Democrats may well come first in September's general election though the mainstream parties will likely keep them out of government for now
His biggest problem is he was out of form at the world cup - I do however think the picture with Erdogan was misjudged. Obviously one doesn't win a world cup winner's medal without being a top player.
A swimming pool salesman by the name of Stephane Guivarc'h says hello.
Raab is a deeply unserious man nominally in charge of a make or break negotiation. Worse again than Davis.
If Raab is saying a deal can be done by October, I think he is echoing May and Barnier. The No Deal posturing is just playing to the gallery and trying to prevent leakage to UKIP.
On reflection, I think you are right. Summarising Raab's incoherent and contradictory remarks, the government needs a deal. Which will be on the EU's terms and will include the NI backstop, unless the EU withdraws it. It won't be Chequers. I wonder how Raab will sell it, assuming he's still around.
How do they get around the fact there won't be a majority in parliament for any kind of deal like Chequers (especially diluted and worsened), nor will there be a majority for No Deal.
Brexit fogs my brain. The Commons does have a vote on this, no? Or can they just force it through?
It's too hot. My thoughts coagulate. I forget.
Most Conservative MPs will do what they are told by the hierarchy. It depends on Labour at least abstaining but for a deal to be rejected, Labour would have to be more Brexity than the Conservatives. The deal might permanently split the Conservative Party and/or bring down the government however.
Dunno if there are odds available on the first hard right/populist leader of a mainstream Western European country, but he looks like an interesting bet.
No, I hadn't: there are too many right-wing nutters on the Continent for me to keep track. What bought him to your attention?
I was arsing about on Twitter, trying to find out what really happened in the Lubeck attack. This, incidentally, is still not clear, some say terror, some say nutter, German media are terribly censorious and nervously timid about this jihadi/refugee stuff, you usually have to go to non-German news sites to get any details.
So I ended up on Dutch sites where I got better news, and by the way discovered that the Dutch have a Muslim grooming/rape problem possibly as bad as ours, and that, in turn, led me to discover Mr Baudet.
Ah, t'Internet. It's endlessly distracting but I am fairly certain I was a less angry person before its invention.
I thought the right wing line here was child grooming was down to Pakistani culture? How many Pakistanis are there in Holland?
The right wing line was that it was an Islamic problem, it was the left that shouted that down as bigoted and assured us it was just a Pakistani cultural problem.
Dunno if there are odds available on the first hard right/populist leader of a mainstream Western European country, but he looks like an interesting bet.
No, I hadn't: there are too many right-wing nutters on the Continent for me to keep track. What bought him to your attention?
I was arsing about on Twitter, trying to find out what really happened in the Lubeck attack. This, incidentally, is still not clear, some say terror, some say nutter, German media are terribly censorious and nervously timid about this jihadi/refugee stuff, you usually have to go to non-German news sites to get any details.
So I ended up on Dutch sites where I got better news, and by the way discovered that the Dutch have a Muslim grooming/rape problem possibly as bad as ours, and that, in turn, led me to discover Mr Baudet.
Ah, t'Internet. It's endlessly distracting but I am fairly certain I was a less angry person before its invention.
I thought the right wing line here was child grooming was down to Pakistani culture? How many Pakistanis are there in Holland?
The right wing line was that it was an Islamic problem, it was the left that shouted that down as bigoted and assured us it was just a Pakistani cultural problem.
A lot of the left-wingers I know get very cross if you suggest it's a Pakistani cultural problem, insisting that such a claim is racist, because men of all races/cultures do such things.
Layla Moran might be seen as more charismatic than Jo Swinson, especially south of the border, but how tested is she? She might turn out to be politically naive or gaffe-prone. Swinson would possibly be the safer pair of hands.
Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt are hardly unknowns to the public, Gove was along with Boris the key figure in the Leave campaign and Hunt was Health Secretary and is now Foreign Secretary. Javid maybe but even he is now Home Secretary. Mogg who was also included is probably the most high profile Tory backbencher.
What is clear is only Boris out of all those surveyed does any better than May against Corbyn Labour
If I were to walk out into the street and ask any random member of the public if they knew who Javid, Hunt, Gove or even Mogg are I'd expect more blank looks than recognition. That's not even a party political point that I'm making... I'd expect even less recognition for my own party's MPs (including Vince Cable).
We're the weirdos for knowing who is in the cabinet, the shadow cabinet and the Lib Dem parliamentary party. Most people haven't a clue and are, therefore, normal.
Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
Excellent point. And Eastbourne shows that with the right candidate they can do well in very Brexity seats. If I were a Lib Dem party manager I'd be studying how that was done very closely.
I think it was due to Plato campaigning for the other candidate.
Apparently, the previous Cons MP (elected in 2015) did not work the patch whereas Stephen Lloyd (who once was a regular pb poster and the former MP very narrowly defeated by a 73 majority) was almost literally everywhere in the constituency. Even so, the swing to the LibDems was only 2.7%.
Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt are hardly unknowns to the public, Gove was along with Boris the key figure in the Leave campaign and Hunt was Health Secretary and is now Foreign Secretary. Javid maybe but even he is now Home Secretary. Mogg who was also included is probably the most high profile Tory backbencher.
What is clear is only Boris out of all those surveyed does any better than May against Corbyn Labour
If I were to walk out into the street and ask any random member of the public if they knew who Javid, Hunt, Gove or even Mogg are I'd expect more blank looks than recognition. That's not even a party political point that I'm making... I'd expect even less recognition for my own party's MPs (including Vince Cable).
We're the weirdos for knowing who is in the cabinet, the shadow cabinet and the Lib Dem parliamentary party. Most people haven't a clue and are, therefore, normal.
Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt are hardly unknowns to the public, Gove was along with Boris the key figure in the Leave campaign and Hunt was Health Secretary and is now Foreign Secretary. Javid maybe but even he is now Home Secretary. Mogg who was also included is probably the most high profile Tory backbencher.
What is clear is only Boris out of all those surveyed does any better than May against Corbyn Labour
If I were to walk out into the street and ask any random member of the public if they knew who Javid, Hunt, Gove or even Mogg are I'd expect more blank looks than recognition. That's not even a party political point that I'm making... I'd expect even less recognition for my own party's MPs (including Vince Cable).
We're the weirdos for knowing who is in the cabinet, the shadow cabinet and the Lib Dem parliamentary party. Most people haven't a clue and are, therefore, normal.
Glad I am normal
I suspect however that there are some more criteria.
Layla Moran might be seen as more charismatic than Jo Swinson, especially south of the border, but how tested is she? She might turn out to be politically naive or gaffe-prone. Swinson would possibly be the safer pair of hands.
When you are at 6% perhaps safety is not the principal consideration?
Unless you can identify a disproportionately high number of SNP parliamentarians compared to the average person in the street? I suspect this might be the case... LOL
Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt are hardly unknowns to the public, Gove was along with Boris the key figure in the Leave campaign and Hunt was Health Secretary and is now Foreign Secretary. Javid maybe but even he is now Home Secretary. Mogg who was also included is probably the most high profile Tory backbencher.
What is clear is only Boris out of all those surveyed does any better than May against Corbyn Labour
If I were to walk out into the street and ask any random member of the public if they knew who Javid, Hunt, Gove or even Mogg are I'd expect more blank looks than recognition. That's not even a party political point that I'm making... I'd expect even less recognition for my own party's MPs (including Vince Cable).
We're the weirdos for knowing who is in the cabinet, the shadow cabinet and the Lib Dem parliamentary party. Most people haven't a clue and are, therefore, normal.
Recognition is a bit higher than you think/expect. Gove was already above 50% recognition 3 years ago, and Hunt and Javid were at 33% then, so probably over 50% now. You've got to remember that most people catch the ITV news or browse the Sun or Mail now and again, and the fact we had three elections in three years also had an impact. https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/09/23/cabinet-recognition/
Layla Moran might be seen as more charismatic than Jo Swinson, especially south of the border, but how tested is she? She might turn out to be politically naive or gaffe-prone. Swinson would possibly be the safer pair of hands.
When you are at 6% perhaps safety is not the principal consideration?
You say that, but the media and the chatterati are pretty merciless.
Layla Moran might be seen as more charismatic than Jo Swinson, especially south of the border, but how tested is she? She might turn out to be politically naive or gaffe-prone. Swinson would possibly be the safer pair of hands.
When you are at 6% perhaps safety is not the principal consideration?
You say that, but the media and the chatterati are pretty merciless.
I suspect whoever replaces Cable will have a positive honeymoon. The media like new and interesting. That’s something that could never be leveled against Canle, Corbyn or May.
The footballing problem with Ozil is he is the type of player who attracts criticism because of his style, in some ways Berbatov had a similar thing at United and was often considered lazy. I have less of a solid opinion on Ozil but I did think that some of the criticism of Berbatov was OTT and it wouldn't surprise me if the same was true of Ozil his statistics are always impressive but he struggles when the team struggle and seems to be one of the fall guys when things go wrong.
I can't really comment on Berbatov as I didn't get to watch him week in week out. However, I was a massive fan of his. I often wonder if Arsenal had sold Henry in 06, could they have got Berbatov as a replacement? I think the last time I saw him play was for Fulham at the Emirates in 2012. He was the best player on the pitch.
I have watched Ozil week in week out since 2013. He puts a good ball into the box, especially from set pieces. If he has time on the ball he can pick a pass. The problem is that he does not hold on to the ball when under pressure from opponents. He is not an out ball. He is one footed. And when the chips are down on a wet and windy night at Goodison Park, he goes missing (if he's bothered to make the journey in the first place).
Whilst I think some of the stuff he's had to put up with since the Erdogan meeting is disgraceful, I think he's wrong about this:
For me, it didn't matter who was President, it matter that it was the President. Having respect for political office is a view that I'm sure both the Queen and Prime Minister Theresa May share when they too hosted Erdogan in London.
Mesut is not a politician. He is a footballer. He does not have to meet these people (Johan Cruyff even boycotted World Cup 78). And it was the "to my president" signature that clearly irked people in Germany.
Yeah I agree with much of that, Ozil probably does get abuse which crosses the line into discrimination but much of the complaint about him is generated by his actions, the footballing side is perhaps unfair to an extent, he might be that type of player rather than not caring or being lazy but the Erdogan stuff could have been avoided.
As for Berbatov I am a terrible person to judge as I loved watching him play but in terms of his criticism at United he probably got partially blamed for the team itself fading. Which may have been a similar problem at Arsenal once players started moving on. Maybe this applies to Ozil as well, they are a great player in a great team, rather than a team renewing and trying to hang on at the top and work their way back up.
Dunno if there are odds available on the first hard right/populist leader of a mainstream Western European country, but he looks like an interesting bet.
No, I hadn't: there are too many right-wing nutters on the Continent for me to keep track. What bought him to your attention?
I was arsing about on Twitter, trying to find out what really happened in the Lubeck attack. This, incidentally, is still not clear, some say terror, some say nutter, German media are terribly censorious and nervously timid about this jihadi/refugee stuff, you usually have to go to non-German news sites to get any details.
So I ended up on Dutch sites where I got better news, and by the way discovered that the Dutch have a Muslim grooming/rape problem possibly as bad as ours, and that, in turn, led me to discover Mr Baudet.
Ah, t'Internet. It's endlessly distracting but I am fairly certain I was a less angry person before its invention.
I thought the right wing line here was child grooming was down to Pakistani culture? How many Pakistanis are there in Holland?
The right wing line was that it was an Islamic problem, it was the left that shouted that down as bigoted and assured us it was just a Pakistani cultural problem.
I was in lübeck this weekend and life was carrying on as normal - I didn't even know about the attack til I got back to Denmark
More revealing about the EU at the moment was getting a severe telling off from the Danish border police for trying to cross from Germany into Denmark without my passport. I said 'but Schengen... he said 'it's a border, you must have your passport' - the driving licence was ok as they could look me up by my CPR number but could have been arrested and fined for crossing without a passport.
waiting in the queue to cross the border also led me to wonder about queues at Dover - the 7km queue I heard about on German radio for crossing to Austria was reported as pretty normal stuff now.
Times are a changing and borders are making a comeback within the EU - the UK border situation might not seem so odd after all
Layla Moran might be seen as more charismatic than Jo Swinson, especially south of the border, but how tested is she? She might turn out to be politically naive or gaffe-prone. Swinson would possibly be the safer pair of hands.
No idea where anyone gets the impression that Moran is charismatic. Everything I have seen of her (and she is my MP unfortunately) is that she is just robotic. Not sure she has any leadership qualities or any real sense of a political vision.
Her background is one of Euro privilege. She lacks the human touch to my mind. And has no real experience in national politics
Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
Excellent point. And Eastbourne shows that with the right candidate they can do well in very Brexity seats. If I were a Lib Dem party manager I'd be studying how that was done very closely.
I think it was due to Plato campaigning for the other candidate.
Apparently, the previous Cons MP (elected in 2015) did not work the patch whereas Stephen Lloyd (who once was a regular pb poster and the former MP very narrowly defeated by a 73 majority) was almost literally everywhere in the constituency. Even so, the swing to the LibDems was only 2.7%.
The Lib Dems have always been lucky to hold Eastbourne at all. Its neighbour Hastings is a straight Labour/Tory fight. They have a long standing foothold on the council and an historic bit of good luck. It was Ian Gow's seat, and in the by election caused by his murder the Tories amazingly managed to field a Turkish Cypriot candidate. Eastbourne has a large Greek Cypriot community who at the time turned out to vote against him. (I don't think the same thing would happen today, but it was still raw back then.)
So to everyone's surprise the Lib Dems pulled off a victory.
They've hung on to it since then at most elections, but only with phenomenal levels of hard work. But given that like Labour they have got a lot of new activists, maybe they can replicate this success elsewhere.
Both Jo Swinson and Layla Moran are hideously overrated. Go to YouTube, and after you've watched all my videos, watch them.
Neither of them are impressive.
The Liberals had Jeremy Thorpe, David Steel and Paddy Ashdown in the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s. They were three intelligent and impressive leaders (whatever their other... errr... foibles). And now we're talking about Layla Moran. Youth does not automatically mean substance. Sometimes it just means someone who hasn't lived very long.
The LibDems "bench" simply isn't a very large one, and doesn't have that many figures with substance. It needs someone with energy (that counts Cable out), but also someone with intelligence, passion and communication skills. It needs someone who can be seen as a Cabinet minister in a coalition government. It needs someone who can work out what niche the Liberal Democrats can fill in the next decade.
Sadly, I don't see anyone who fills that role.
Why would you say that both are 'hideously overrated? That seems quite an extreme reaction, and this must be something more than just an anti-LibDem thing. Is it because they are women, and strong women at that. Or because one of them has the temerity to 'fall pregnant'? Or one of them comes over as a bit 'shrill'?
Or perhaps it's because they are both thoroughly modern, decent, female MPs, with a different, more inclusive approach to politics, who try to avoid much of the posturing, cock-strutting and public-school-male shenanigans that seem to take up much of the HoC? Maybe that's what you object to - or am I reading too much into your reaction?
Both Jo Swinson and Layla Moran are hideously overrated. Go to YouTube, and after you've watched all my videos, watch them.
Neither of them are impressive.
The Liberals had Jeremy Thorpe, David Steel and Paddy Ashdown in the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s. They were three intelligent and impressive leaders (whatever their other... errr... foibles). And now we're talking about Layla Moran. Youth does not automatically mean substance. Sometimes it just means someone who hasn't lived very long.
The LibDems "bench" simply isn't a very large one, and doesn't have that many figures with substance. It needs someone with energy (that counts Cable out), but also someone with intelligence, passion and communication skills. It needs someone who can be seen as a Cabinet minister in a coalition government. It needs someone who can work out what niche the Liberal Democrats can fill in the next decade.
Sadly, I don't see anyone who fills that role.
Why would you say that both are 'hideously overrated? That seems quite an extreme reaction, and this must be something more than just an anti-LibDem thing. Is it because they are women, and strong women at that. Or because one of them has the temerity to 'fall pregnant'? Or one of them comes over as a bit 'shrill'?
Or perhaps it's because they are both thoroughly modern, decent, female MPs, with a different, more inclusive approach to politics, who try to avoid much of the posturing, cock-strutting and public-school-male shenanigans that seem to take up much of the HoC? Maybe that's what you object to - or am I reading too much into your reaction?
Both Jo Swinson and Layla Moran are hideously overrated. Go to YouTube, and after you've watched all my videos, watch them.
Neither of them are impressive.
The Liberals had Jeremy Thorpe, David Steel and Paddy Ashdown in the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s. They were three intelligent and impressive leaders (whatever their other... errr... foibles). And now we're talking about Layla Moran. Youth does not automatically mean substance. Sometimes it just means someone who hasn't lived very long.
The LibDems "bench" simply isn't a very large one, and doesn't have that many figures with substance. It needs someone with energy (that counts Cable out), but also someone with intelligence, passion and communication skills. It needs someone who can be seen as a Cabinet minister in a coalition government. It needs someone who can work out what niche the Liberal Democrats can fill in the next decade.
Sadly, I don't see anyone who fills that role.
Why would you say that both are 'hideously overrated? That seems quite an extreme reaction, and this must be something more than just an anti-LibDem thing. Is it because they are women, and strong women at that. Or because one of them has the temerity to 'fall pregnant'? Or one of them comes over as a bit 'shrill'?
Or perhaps it's because they are both thoroughly modern, decent, female MPs, with a different, more inclusive approach to politics, who try to avoid much of the posturing, cock-strutting and public-school-male shenanigans that seem to take up much of the HoC? Maybe that's what you object to - or am I reading too much into your reaction?
Both Jo Swinson and Layla Moran are hideously overrated. Go to YouTube, and after you've watched all my videos, watch them.
Neither of them are impressive.
The Liberals had Jeremy Thorpe, David Steel and Paddy Ashdown in the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s. They were three intelligent and impressive leaders (whatever their other... errr... foibles). And now we're talking about Layla Moran. Youth does not automatically mean substance. Sometimes it just means someone who hasn't lived very long.
The LibDems "bench" simply isn't a very large one, and doesn't have that many figures with substance. It needs someone with energy (that counts Cable out), but also someone with intelligence, passion and communication skills. It needs someone who can be seen as a Cabinet minister in a coalition government. It needs someone who can work out what niche the Liberal Democrats can fill in the next decade.
Sadly, I don't see anyone who fills that role.
Why would you say that both are 'hideously overrated? That seems quite an extreme reaction, and this must be something more than just an anti-LibDem thing. Is it because they are women, and strong women at that. Or because one of them has the temerity to 'fall pregnant'? Or one of them comes over as a bit 'shrill'?
Or perhaps it's because they are both thoroughly modern, decent, female MPs, with a different, more inclusive approach to politics, who try to avoid much of the posturing, cock-strutting and public-school-male shenanigans that seem to take up much of the HoC? Maybe that's what you object to - or am I reading too much into your reaction?
Did rcs1000 imply that they were not impressive because they were women?
Tories are so obsessed with Europe that everything is looked at from this perspective. Just look at the earlier comments. Remember the LD gains at GE17 were not restricted to Remain seats.
Excellent point. And Eastbourne shows that with the right candidate they can do well in very Brexity seats. If I were a Lib Dem party manager I'd be studying how that was done very closely.
I think it was due to Plato campaigning for the other candidate.
Apparently, the previous Cons MP (elected in 2015) did not work the patch whereas Stephen Lloyd (who once was a regular pb poster and the former MP very narrowly defeated by a 73 majority) was almost literally everywhere in the constituency. Even so, the swing to the LibDems was only 2.7%.
The Lib Dems have always been lucky to hold Eastbourne at all. Its neighbour Hastings is a straight Labour/Tory fight. They have a long standing foothold on the council and an historic bit of good luck. It was Ian Gow's seat, and in the by election caused by his murder the Tories amazingly managed to field a Turkish Cypriot candidate. Eastbourne has a large Greek Cypriot community who at the time turned out to vote against him. (I don't think the same thing would happen today, but it was still raw back then.)
So to everyone's surprise the Lib Dems pulled off a victory.
They've hung on to it since then at most elections, but only with phenomenal levels of hard work. But given that like Labour they have got a lot of new activists, maybe they can replicate this success elsewhere.
The LDs unexpectedly gained Eastbourne in 1990 but lost it two years later at the GE. They didn't regain it until 2010, and again in 2017 after losing in 2015.
Both Jo Swinson and Layla Moran are hideously overrated. Go to YouTube, and after you've watched all my videos, watch them.
Neither of them are impressive.
The Liberals had Jeremy Thorpe, David Steel and Paddy Ashdown in the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s. They were three intelligent and impressive leaders (whatever their other... errr... foibles). And now we're talking about Layla Moran. Youth does not automatically mean substance. Sometimes it just means someone who hasn't lived very long.
The LibDems "bench" simply isn't a very large one, and doesn't have that many figures with substance. It needs someone with energy (that counts Cable out), but also someone with intelligence, passion and communication skills. It needs someone who can be seen as a Cabinet minister in a coalition government. It needs someone who can work out what niche the Liberal Democrats can fill in the next decade.
Sadly, I don't see anyone who fills that role.
Why would you say that both are 'hideously overrated? That seems quite an extreme reaction, and this must be something more than just an anti-LibDem thing. Is it because they are women, and strong women at that. Or because one of them has the temerity to 'fall pregnant'? Or one of them comes over as a bit 'shrill'?
Or perhaps it's because they are both thoroughly modern, decent, female MPs, with a different, more inclusive approach to politics, who try to avoid much of the posturing, cock-strutting and public-school-male shenanigans that seem to take up much of the HoC? Maybe that's what you object to - or am I reading too much into your reaction?
At no point did RCS make any reference to fact that Swinson and Moran are both women. So your post is very much reading in far, far too much.
Perhaps you need to examine your own prejudices before projecting onto others.
rcs doesn't usually go over the top, I don't agree with him on overall political views but he usually seems pretty solid on the points he makes rather than saying things for partisan reasons...
Arguments about overrated are difficult speaking from my experiences arguing about football. There are always those wrongly underrated and overrated to a greater extent.
You could easily imply that Lib Dems future leadership candidates would stand out because a lack of other options, would they be more impressive than MPs in other parties?
Layla Moran might be seen as more charismatic than Jo Swinson, especially south of the border, but how tested is she? She might turn out to be politically naive or gaffe-prone. Swinson would possibly be the safer pair of hands.
No idea where anyone gets the impression that Moran is charismatic. Everything I have seen of her (and she is my MP unfortunately) is that she is just robotic. Not sure she has any leadership qualities or any real sense of a political vision.
Her background is one of Euro privilege. She lacks the human touch to my mind. And has no real experience in national politics
LDs would be foolish to look in her direction.
I have no inside information, but strikes me some kind of operation happened over last few days, from some people within Liberals. Sunday Times for example running a piece. Someone is providing briefings, off the record sources etc.
Why would you say that both are 'hideously overrated? That seems quite an extreme reaction, and this must be something more than just an anti-LibDem thing. Is it because they are women, and strong women at that. Or because one of them has the temerity to 'fall pregnant'? Or one of them comes over as a bit 'shrill'?
Or perhaps it's because they are both thoroughly modern, decent, female MPs, with a different, more inclusive approach to politics, who try to avoid much of the posturing, cock-strutting and public-school-male shenanigans that seem to take up much of the HoC? Maybe that's what you object to - or am I reading too much into your reaction?
I think @rcs1000 was coming over all hoity-toity about his fancy-pants new YouTube setup and production values in comparison to theirs, rather than being sexist. He's like that these days, now that he's rubbing shoulders with IReviewPants and TalkingInanelyAboutThatSciFiSeries instead of the likes of us perfectly normal and not-at-all obsessional PB folk.
I see Ozil has proved himself as a selfish twit not fit to wear the national shirt. At least we know where his loyalties lie. Thankfully the England team doesn't suffer the same issues despite being much more diverse than the German national side.
Comments
Not so much a war crime as a sales opportunity. Welcome to Global Brexit Britain.
A sad day when the discussion site of a supposedly liberal party restricts free speech to a greater extent than ConHome or sites managed by Labour activists.
@NickPalmer Thats a good point. Brexit might not motivate voters on their left in the way it does voters on the Right.
@Foxy I think I may have read about that sometime ago. It seems like several of our recent governments have this kind of relationship with Saudi Arabia, unfortunately.
@Roger Blair doing this doesn’t surprise me. It’s pretty hard to know where he fits on the political spectrum these days.
It's quite obvious that the LibDems should be the party that principally champions the interests of the young - a position that was being developed quite successfully until Clegg came along and trashed it. Corbyn has captured this mantle yet his prospectus is no more honest than was the red bus of the Leave campaign. A big step toward regaining that path would be the election of a younger leader, who would contrast particularly strikingly with Mr C and Mrs M.
https://twitter.com/SaysSimonson/status/1020346314628960256
With the first one and in regards to Labour you need people who largely agree with say Anna Soubry. If you look at Labours last manifesto how many MPs in the Labour Party would find a much more agreeable platform with Soubry that would cause them to defect.
Which isn't to say even Soubry herself would defect, which is part of the problem without many Tories the project is dead, if you can get decent numbers (20-30) then it seems difficult to get any substantial numbers (say 50+) from Labour and a coherent platform close enough for everyone to find it worth defecting.
To use just a brexit example, though there would be plenty on non brexit as well, Caroline Flint seems unlikely to join the new 'stop brexit' party.
A repeat SDP (largely labour) would probably do well to do what SDP did.
The other problem is MPs seats, if you are in a pro brexit Tory area or a left wing Labour area then it might not matter too much what the MP thinks if they hold back for fear of losing their seat or they do defect and just lose their seat back to the party anyway.
Though obviously nothing is written in stone (I think Labour try to avoid that now) and plenty of people have been wrong about British politics the last few years. I just think large scale defections from either party seem unlikely for various reasons.
Edit: Also presumably they would all have to agree with the Lib Dems to an extent as well. Whilst people can defect there are often reasons beyond just opportunity that they joined their parties in the first place.
They must set a high bar.
On the other hand I'm often thinking to myself "haven't heard much from the Cable Guy for a while, really".
If IDS was "the quiet man", Cable's been the "has anybody actually checked his pulse" man.
Anyway, as I say, I have nothing against Moran and if she becomes leader I'll be happy to support her as I have nothing that's actually negative to say about her. All I'm saying is that she's not top of my wish list at the moment.
Norman Parkinson
https://www.gettyimages.fr/photographies/eric-trump-1283906#/the-trump-family-new-york-1988-picture-id584333510
and even funnier Annie Leibovitz
https://www.flickr.com/photos/curlyjazz/360220605
That he's been seen as a stop-gap right from the start has been more than half of his problem whether within the party itself, in the media or with the general public. We need the next leader to commit to the long haul and to look like they mean to do so.
Anyhow, my calling out LDV for its censorship here has, directly or coincidentally, finally seen their letting one of my (relatively innocuous, if critical) posts through to publication.
Is it correct that VI was Lab 39, Con 38 with current leaders - or was the current leaders question not a conventional VI question?
38/38 with Boris as leader - not much difference to May.
But what is striking is how badly Con does with any of other leading contenders.
If your party’s talisman policy is to take a firm stand against Brexit, turn up to vote against a hard Brexit.
Politics is not that hard really. Cable, really ought to go after this mess.
Personally I don't have a problem with that. Ultimately it is up to the club to do what they think is in their best interest. If West Ham don't want Africans, that's what source of talent they aren't considering. If Athletic Bilbao don't want anyone other than Basques playing for them, fine.
One assumes that, despite all the posturing at this stage, when presented with a very stark “This deal or crash out” binary choice the vast majority of MPs are going to beck the deal.
I have watched Ozil week in week out since 2013. He puts a good ball into the box, especially from set pieces. If he has time on the ball he can pick a pass. The problem is that he does not hold on to the ball when under pressure from opponents. He is not an out ball. He is one footed. And when the chips are down on a wet and windy night at Goodison Park, he goes missing (if he's bothered to make the journey in the first place).
Whilst I think some of the stuff he's had to put up with since the Erdogan meeting is disgraceful, I think he's wrong about this:
For me, it didn't matter who was President, it matter that it was the President. Having respect for political office is a view that I'm sure both the Queen and Prime Minister Theresa May share when they too hosted Erdogan in London.
Mesut is not a politician. He is a footballer. He does not have to meet these people (Johan Cruyff even boycotted World Cup 78). And it was the "to my president" signature that clearly irked people in Germany.
What is clear is only Boris out of all those surveyed does any better than May against Corbyn Labour
So over 50% of Leave seats were almost certainly Tory in 2017 too
The Fixed Term Parliaments Act (thanks Nick Clegg) also makes it much more difficult to force an election unless both major parties are supportive (as was the case in 2017).
We're the weirdos for knowing who is in the cabinet, the shadow cabinet and the Lib Dem parliamentary party. Most people haven't a clue and are, therefore, normal.
As for Berbatov I am a terrible person to judge as I loved watching him play but in terms of his criticism at United he probably got partially blamed for the team itself fading. Which may have been a similar problem at Arsenal once players started moving on. Maybe this applies to Ozil as well, they are a great player in a great team, rather than a team renewing and trying to hang on at the top and work their way back up.
More revealing about the EU at the moment was getting a severe telling off from the Danish border police for trying to cross from Germany into Denmark without my passport. I said 'but Schengen... he said 'it's a border, you must have your passport' - the driving licence was ok as they could look me up by my CPR number but could have been arrested and fined for crossing without a passport.
waiting in the queue to cross the border also led me to wonder about queues at Dover - the 7km queue I heard about on German radio for crossing to Austria was reported as pretty normal stuff now.
Times are a changing and borders are making a comeback within the EU - the UK border situation might not seem so odd after all
Her background is one of Euro privilege. She lacks the human touch to my mind. And has no real experience in national politics
LDs would be foolish to look in her direction.
So to everyone's surprise the Lib Dems pulled off a victory.
They've hung on to it since then at most elections, but only with phenomenal levels of hard work. But given that like Labour they have got a lot of new activists, maybe they can replicate this success elsewhere.
Or perhaps it's because they are both thoroughly modern, decent, female MPs, with a different, more inclusive approach to politics, who try to avoid much of the posturing, cock-strutting and public-school-male shenanigans that seem to take up much of the HoC? Maybe that's what you object to - or am I reading too much into your reaction?
Perhaps you need to examine your own prejudices before projecting onto others.
Arguments about overrated are difficult speaking from my experiences arguing about football. There are always those wrongly underrated and overrated to a greater extent.
You could easily imply that Lib Dems future leadership candidates would stand out because a lack of other options, would they be more impressive than MPs in other parties?
I don't have a bad impression of either myself.
To what end?
He's getting 16,000 views now.
Sniff.
Fancy...