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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After just a year in the job Cable comes under pressure
Mail reporting LD plot to swap Vince Cable, 75, for Layla Moran, 35 https://t.co/BwUBULHXuN via @MailOnline
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1. Why would Cable, as head of the only remaining centrist party, be in talks to set up a new centrist party rather than be focused on making his existing centrist party a real force?
2. Why would anyone be interested in a new centrist party set up by a failed leader of a centrist party who appears to be abandoning the party he leads?
Afternoon again all
Vince was only ever going to be a caretaker until Jo Swinson returned from maternity leave. My feeling is most in the Party don't want a coronation and would value a contest between Swinson and Moran. As for "public profile", who cares at this stage ?
I've not heard either Moran or Swinson lay out their personal political agenda so as a member of the electorate, I'll reserve judgement until there actually is a contest.
OTOH, the Conservative Party, if it stands for nothing else, stands for the Union. It is philosophically and practically impossible for said Party to accept any arrangement which treats Ulster separately from the rest of the UK (unless of course it's an arrangement which Westminster itself has created).
A vote for Scottish independence would have finished Cameron as effectively as the EU Referendum did and if we are to believe HYUFD any deal which May puts forward which treats Ulster separately will be her death warrant as leader and Prime Minister.
Barnier and the EU presumably know this and are using this weakness/fundamental point of principle (delete as appropriate) as a bargaining chip to ensure a good deal for the Irish Republic and by inference the rest of the European Union because they are Unionists too.
Therein lies the rub - two groups of Unionists negotiating from starting points of trying to preserve their individual Unions while trying to arrange a separation and a divorce.
It would also be unwise to have anpther coronation, any new leader (and I quite like Moran) should be tested first on the hustings, and also usefully gain publicity for themselves and party. I suspect this would be post Brexit in 2019.
Rather than try to attract defectors, the LDs should be working on what Centrism means in the 21st Century, and not just concentrating on Brexit. No amount of defectors makes for an appealing package, unless there is a coherent philosophy and direction, but build that, and they will come.
Luck is needed but also energy. Ashdown was good at it, so was Kennedy. They managed by sticking to issues on which they were expert and coming up with good slogans backed by sound policies to become go to figures in the media and had messages that cut through mainstream discourse. It was of course helped that they had some solid performers under them and an Opposition who were about as effective as Donald Trump's chastity belt, but they exploited their advantages.
Unfortunately Cable, who might have been the ideal leader at the time of the financial crisis, just hasn't come up with anything on the key issue of this parliament because the Liberal Democrats - who should have been yelling about the EEA from the off - became the party of 'the vote was wrong, maybe we should change it.' This was not a smart place to start even with Remainers.
Of course, these things can go too far (look at Thorpe) but I think a new leader certainly after Christmas with something fresh on trade and foreign policy would be the way to go. Whether Moran is the person to do that I will confess I don't know. But Kennedy was not widely known except among anoraks in 1998. She may make her luck. What we can say for definite is Cable now won't.
edit: corrected for spelling
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/07/germany-post-race-analysis-2018.html
Find the midfield team battle particularly interesting.
Yougov also had 38% support for a new right wing pro Brexit Party and 24% for a new hard right anti immigration nationalist party. The scope is there for a wholesale realignment along the faultlines developing in much of global politics today between a Corbynite socialist hard Left party, a liberal centrist party and a nationalist right wing party and a populist far right anti immigration party
She sounds perfect!
Edit: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Moran_(diplomat)
Neither of them are impressive.
The Liberals had Jeremy Thorpe, David Steel and Paddy Ashdown in the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s. They were three intelligent and impressive leaders (whatever their other... errr... foibles). And now we're talking about Layla Moran. Youth does not automatically mean substance. Sometimes it just means someone who hasn't lived very long.
The LibDems "bench" simply isn't a very large one, and doesn't have that many figures with substance. It needs someone with energy (that counts Cable out), but also someone with intelligence, passion and communication skills. It needs someone who can be seen as a Cabinet minister in a coalition government. It needs someone who can work out what niche the Liberal Democrats can fill in the next decade.
Sadly, I don't see anyone who fills that role.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Layla_Moran
If he gets a 5s penalty that puts him 2nd. 10s puts him 4th.
Be a big call to give a retroactive penalty now, though.
Not that it really matters but she seems to have had a very privileged middle class upbringing in west London doing a fair bit of travelling because her dad was a diplomat - she hardly struggled from nothing to make it to London from the war torn West Bank or Gaza?
She may well make a great Lib Dem leader but let's not get carried away with her life story.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wasif_Jawhariyyeh
Nailed on.
My only worry: she's relatively new to politics and probably needs to 'toughen up a bit', but then as the LibDems currently have little chance of sharing power, she may have time to build confidence gradually during the post-Brexit implosion.
I see her leading the LibDems as a cause for celebration. But I can't believe Cable will go quietly...
They then need to get have a media blitz on these subjects, writing opinion columns and getting in TV studios talking about their issues while everyone else is talking about nothing but Brexit. They should also be putting their MPs and well known LDs up for guest spots on the news channels, the biggest problem is that under Cable they’re completely invisible.
The problem with a polarised electorate is that it forces you to pick one extreme to stop the other. Unless someone in the middle can project something of their own they'll be a mere bystander.
33% Stop Brexit Centrists
38% Right Wing Pro Brexit
24% Right Wing Anti Immigration
leaving...
2% Corbyn Labour Party
1% George Osborne Tories
1% SNP
1% Others
?
He should be okay as long as he didn’t trip anyone up. It’s when you swerve into the pits the stewards get upset, rather than avoiding them. There’s nothing specifically in the sporting regulations that covers this, although it may be in the event notes from Charlie (that I don’t have to hand).
George Osborne Tories would join the Stop Brexit Centrists.
Most likely the Right Wing Anti Immigration Party would not be as high and some would vote for the Right Wing Pro Brexit Party.
The SNP would form a Scottish combination of socialism, stop Brexit centrism with a dash of nationalism added too much as now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKwQlm-wldA
Just a reprimand, though, would be a rather courageous decision at this stage. Crossing the white line at the exit is a slam dunk penalty.
Coincidentally, it would also make my Raikkonen bet green.
Edited extra bit: may find out in a few minutes.
https://twitter.com/becclancy/status/1021074970598887424
Clarity on the rules would be a good thing. Whatever they decide, someone will be unhappy.
The beard and sandals brigade of left leaning hippies and students have now largely gone to Corbyn Labour
It appears that Betfair have already settled their markets with what may be the wrong result.
I think he'll get a 5s penalty. Because that is the result that would annoy me the most.
https://www.fia.com/file/70745/download?token=OO5Dtk1p
8) Lines or bollards at the pit entry and pit exit
8.1 In accordance with Chapter 4 (Section 5) of Appendix L to the ISC drivers must keep to the right of the white line at the pit exit when leaving the pits, no part of any car leaving the pits may cross this line.
8.2 For safety reasons drivers must stay to the right of the bollard at the pit entry when entering the pits.
Note that Hamilton didn’t enter the pit lane itself, he didn’t pass the pit speed limit line.
As OGH says, those Conservative commentators who see everything through the prism of Brexit and the 2016 Referendum aren't getting it right. We are told 408 constituencies voted LEAVE - how many of these did the Conservatives actually win ?
https://twitter.com/F1/status/1021086678897786880
https://twitter.com/tedkravitz/status/1021086864839708673
What a waste of time.
Not too many lessons to be learnt there.
Us geeks on here might have known that leaving the EU was far from being a certainty, but to a lot of people - especially working class leave voters - it was a done deal.
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6
It may come to nothing, it may not.
I am really not sure I can see this.
https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1021093613965635593?s=21
There’s not many Conservatives that will defect, maybe Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston?