politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 270/1 shot for the White House indicates that he might run
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 270/1 shot for the White House indicates that he might run
Back in early April I reported that I’d backed Governor John Hickenlooper for the presidency at odds of 270/1 on Betfair.
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Popular governor of a swing state. Good backstory.
Against that, he's perhaps a little moderate for the Democrats this year. And he's hardly done any pussy grabbing as far as I'm aware, which counts against him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrEFWv8aSQ8
Having seen the Democrats use the Primaries to elect a bunch of left wing nutjobs, I can't help wonder if Hickenlooper will struggle get traction with the Democratic base. But, I think he'd be a very good foil to Donald Trump.
Amazingly, the original Bard's Tale was the last good game made by Electronic Arts.
To veer approximately on-topic, I wonder if there'll be a very large field for the blues next time, as there was the reds last time. That does seem helpful for outsiders.
Good evening, everyone.
Mr. Borough, he could win again.
Given OGH's record on this one should take note though as a trading option in itself it looks a pretty good price.
If I were the Democratic Party, I would be looking at a candidate who could get independent and swing voters on side - the pro-Trump hardcore aren't going to shift so don't waste time and effort on them - go for the Independents and the swing voters.
I suppose it's always possible the GOP will split and try to run its own candidate against Trump although I suppose the analogy with 1912 has Trump more Roosevelt than Taft but no analogy stands up to close inspection. Perhaps a better analogy would be the Dixiecrats - would Trumpians stand against a GOP candidate?
The point at which parties become sensible is when they decide they want a leader the electorate will want not a leader the party wants. Both Blair and Cameron came to lead their parties simply because they could reach beyond the core.
The Democrats need to consider an individual who can reach beyond the base but doesn't even have to reach too far - pick up Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and it's all over.
It feels like happy families when the pb.com community are all backing similar longshots.
I imagine the mood will be very cheery if Jeremy Hunt or Rory Stewart are the next Con leader.
I'm torn as to whether hard Brexit makes rejoining more or less likely. It's clear the short-term disruption will be more, which favours rejoining. But the distance of travel to rejoining will be considerable, and the EU is not an organization that swiftly admits members. It would need a consensus across UK political parties given the timescales involved.
A softer Brexit means it's not as far to go, but on the other hand if it's soft enough - then what's the point in opening up a divisive debate? Norway has been happy enough with its lack of influence and semi-attached status for quite some time.
To be honest, should only be given to the certified morons that voted Leave!
Though if it does end up Trump v Sanders/Warren I could see Hickenlooper on a centrist third party ticket with Kasich (who could again challenge Trump in the GOP primaries) focused on moderates and independents. That is where his real value lies, not for the Democratic nomination
She speaks to a certain fringe of the party, and might feel she has the votes to run.
At those odds she only needs to have a go in the next contest to be well worth backing.
I think the field for left candidates may be more crowded, whereas Bernie had a pretty much free run last time and still didn't make it.
I suspect we will see more centrist candidates like Hickenlooper come out very strongly on issues like healthcare, perhaps with policies like Medicare for all, to pick up votes from the left.
And I think the EU would be delighted to have us rejoin after a car crash Brexit, pour encourager les autres.
If we leave with hard brexit there is no chance of us rejoining for 15 years at least. This why the ERG are happy.
I am very sorry to hear of that sad news. Your eulogy was truly inspiring and I am sure does him proud.Having lost both my parents, I can empathise with the deep void that bereavement brings to us. As a Spiritualist - and practising Medium - I have a different view of death to most people - and see it as a stage of development with the physical existence being replaced by a higher spiritual life in another dimension. That knowledge,however, does not take away the pain of losing a person's physical prescence.
Betting PostGermany: pre-race ramble:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/07/germany-pre-race-2018.html
Backed Raikkonen each way for the win at 10. Mercedes have recently started a bit iffily. There have also been a few front end collisions. Raikkonen could benefit from either.
Tempted by a few other things too, though.
Reversing that divergence would presumably be more problematic than if we had had a soft Brexit and had kept things very much aligned.
To be honest though I'm just speculating, I don't really have a clear sense of how easy rejoining would be. I think it would be wise if People's Vote group or similar groups started looking into this - at least as a backup option.
It can only be because they’re the ones doing all the moaning these days.
Lemoaners seems to fit the bill.
Truss appears insane but as you say it now seems a necessary qualification. Hammond has been sidelined, if not disowned, clearly for being too level-headed and competent. Stewart is probably doing a good job on prisons but never it seems says anything unrelated to his department, possibly because it might sound too sensible.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf see page 50
In reality it will be 3.2% higher:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/qna
Aberdeenshire
Fife
Nottinghamshire
Staffordshire
Norfolk
Herefordshire
Norfolk
Surrey
West Sussex
Kent
The highest score for about three weeks.
A shortage of fruit pickers and political dithering has led to an “appalling” amount of Scottish produce being left to rot, MPs have been told.
Politicians travelled to Scottish fruit farms yesterday to investigate a looming crisis that could worsen if immigration rules are tightened after Brexit.
MPs also visited West Jordanstone Farm in Alyth, where the Marshall family has already had to leave crops to rot due to a lack of staff to pick them.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/fruit-rots-on-farms-as-eu-workers-stay-away-and-mps-dither-wcqxwg5wl
Now they're lining up with big business and the EU.
Try to snap out of it because it doesn't do much for your mental health. We're beginning to feel sorry for you now!
https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-independent/20180721/281509341971841
Varadkar's bessie mates are soon to be subject to one of his rants. Merkel key ally says "Border to be hardest in Europe." "Not Germany's problem, Ireland can sort it out." Germany is not paying. Then the French waded in helpfully as well.
So what is the analysis. Pressure being put on Ireland to support a new EU proposal or sage advice from your friends because no deal is looking the best bet at the moment?
Sees 'Lemoaner' and 'Euro-loon' are being flung round.
Sighs sadly and wonders what the mods are doing, given all their awful threats in the past over such terms.
Yawns loudly.
Goes back to the cricket.
Is 'no strawberry left behind' now some Scottish farming obsession ?
In reality, growth is subdued because of Brexit.
Even the headbangers admit growth is repressed, albeit some suspect a Treasury plot.
We are last in Europe, having been prior to 2016 near first.
You have to carry responsibility for that.
Rebalancing the economy into something sustainable is far more important than an extra 0.1% on nominal GDP.
Or do you think that the UK could continue to have a £100bn annual current account deficit on a permanent basis ?
Warren and Sanders combined already comfortably top the Democratic primary polls even if Biden is nominally ahead
You've clearly forgotten the first rule of PB Moderation.
Sure, it’s not apocalypse now, but it’s not the nirvana the masturbatory PB Brexiters think either.
Even Brexit economist loon Peter “shut down the North” Minford admits Brexit economy has not necessarily proceeded according to our advantage.
Stick to counting strawberries, unless Tesco have banned you already for being some kind of pest.
Don't forget either Perot got 19% as a third party candidate in 1992
I am also on Kasich as a potential primary challenger to Trump, and also Evan McMullin, who was quite successful as 3rd party candidate in Utah, but also may Primary Trump. Both have hinted at running. McMullins twitter is worth following, he has a CIA background and really loathes Trump.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/july2018#summary-of-latest-regional-labour-market-statistics
So why when London housing is such a scarce and expensive resource is taxpayers money being used to pay people to stay there to do nothing when people who would add value in finance, tech, culture etc cannot afford to live there ?
Does anyone actually doubt that Tubbs et al would have voted Brexit?
As ever, my enemy's enemy is my friend.
The expansion of the British soft fruit industry is a fairly recent phenomenon, and includes a lot more polytunnel produce to extend the season.
People in culture and other areas of the economy maybe not
But note they also say that Britain will be in a less favourable position than Russia vis a vis trade with the EU.
Now this may all be legally correct. And it may very largely be the result of Britain’s inept and arrogant handling of Brexit.
But the EU really ought to ask itself whether it makes sense to humiliate a former member, the world’s 5th (for now) largest economy, member of the Security Council etc. Humiliating countries, however much they may be at fault, does not usually end well. Nor does it reflect well on the EU. And while they may not care now, they may find that this could lead to unforeseen and unpleasant consequences in future.
Britain is not going to disappear. Just as we would be well advised to adopt a more grown up approach to our relationship with the EU, so would the EU be well advised to do the same vis-a-vi Britain.
Someone so boring they make John Kerry look lie a crazy maverick.
I think general sexism had a serious effect on Hilary's chances - a couple of voting day vox pops had a serious impact on me with a female voter saying there is no way a woman should be president as they are too emotional. If Hilary Clinton is considered 'emotional' then, well, I don't know.
Strangely, given a choice, Johnny Foreigner doesn't seem to want to come and do menial work for minimum wage while being charged for accommodation to boot.
The number of agricultural workers has massively increased during the last 15 years according to the ONS.
To Mr Varadkar hard border means no tariffs or customs at all including electronic manifests, his position could only be satisfied by the UK staying in the EU completely. EEA+CU does not satisfy. The EU are in possession of a report that the high tech border is feasible over time. So I read it as pressure being applied so that no physical infrastructure at the border, but electronic customs docs and points of checking well away from the border should be acceptable. i.e not the hardest border in Ireland.
The only logical sense coming out of this is: we are leaving and it is their duty to make it easy . Oh, by the way, can we cherry pick what we want even if that breaks the four freedoms because - wait a minute - we are so ******* important.
By comparison the semi-skilled production workers at my employer get paid several pounds per hour above minimum wage for what seems to be rather easier work.
If my employer tried to pay production workers at minimum wage there would be 100% vacancies and 0% output.
I wonder if he'd get stories in the media and visits from politicians.
My point is not whether their attitude is right or understandable. It may be both. But whether it is wise.
There has been a move from temporary labour to full time. People used to move farms dependent on what was in season, now they want the jobs that are 12 months of the year.
A cereal farmer will have high productivity but the new soft fruit peasantry less so.
It is the LDs and the likes of Umunna and Soubry or on the other side UKIP and the likes of Boris, Mogg and Field who offer alternatives to the current Tory government's Brexit, Corbyn Labour absolutely does not in virtually any respect bar staying in 'a' customs union but not 'the' customs union
The immovable object is Politicians' desire to want to tell people what they want to hear.
The irresistible force is the contradictory, irreconcilable and outright impossible instructions politicians believe the UK electorate has given them.
Something is going to have to give, I wish I knew what.
They're telling people who are willing to work not to come back and they're wondering why they can't recruit?
Screw them then. Why should we care?
eg Francois Hollande, French President, Oct 2016, 6 months before Art. 50 was triggered:
"“There must be a threat, there must be a risk, there must be a price, otherwise we will be in negotiations that will not end well and, inevitably, will have economic and human consequences,” the French president said."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/07/uk-must-pay-price-for-brexit-says-francois-hollande
.. pour encourager les autres:
"Hollande said firmness was absolutely necessary otherwise “the principles of the European Union will be questioned” and “other countries or other parties will be minded to leave the European Union in order to have the supposed benefits and no downsides or rules”."
Similar statements were made by other leaders.
And the M Barnier included a demand to be able to punish unilaterally in the EU submission this spring.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43062112
He had to withdraw it and apologise.
(Hope I have my blockquotes correct).
In fact, solving the immigrant labour problem is to bankrupt the farmers first ! Also, gets ridof the subsidy problem.