politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wythenshawe and Sale E could be a dry run for Toby Young’s
Comments
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Specsavers ?anotherDave said:
The info box there says 40/31/14/9TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike and Lord Ashcroft are wrong*NickPalmer said:
Ashcroft and Mike both tweeting 40/31. A misprint or a misunderstanding? Only MOE difference, of course, though 9 points would be at the upper end of recent polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
I can confirm my figures are correct, bar the LDs which is unclear at the moment.MikeL said:
Post on UKPR says 40/31. Can you confirm?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov - Sunday Times
Is I think,
Lab 40
Con 33
UKIP 14
LD 8 or 9
I'm going from the front page of the Sunday Times
twitter.com/suttonnick/status/422118237371760640
*Well that's something I never thought I'd write.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BduqTNuCQAAiFUr.jpg:large0 -
Just keep enlarging the picture.surbiton said:
Specsavers ?anotherDave said:
The info box there says 40/31/14/9TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike and Lord Ashcroft are wrong*NickPalmer said:
Ashcroft and Mike both tweeting 40/31. A misprint or a misunderstanding? Only MOE difference, of course, though 9 points would be at the upper end of recent polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
I can confirm my figures are correct, bar the LDs which is unclear at the moment.MikeL said:
Post on UKPR says 40/31. Can you confirm?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov - Sunday Times
Is I think,
Lab 40
Con 33
UKIP 14
LD 8 or 9
I'm going from the front page of the Sunday Times
twitter.com/suttonnick/status/422118237371760640
*Well that's something I never thought I'd write.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BduqTNuCQAAiFUr.jpg:large
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Indeed not but I can't believe even Desmond would leave a less than subtle trail of breadcrumbs that would expose him to that. Hard to believe it may be at times but the Express does have a team of in house lawyers to give stories like that the once over at least.Life_ina_market_town said:
As McAlpine of West Green demonstrated, you don't have to name names to expose yourself to liability in defamation.Mick_Pork said:I'd be astounded if Desmond actually gave any names.
I could be wrong though and the tabloids do love to skate of the thinnest of ice at times.0 -
MEA CULPA
The Sunday Times have put their piece
It is
Con 31
Lab 40
UKIP 14
LD 90 -
"Apology accepted, Captain Needa!"TheScreamingEagles said:MEA CULPA
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From the Sunday Times/YouGov
76% backing both a £26,000 cap on a household’s benefits and a two-year ban on benefits for migrants.
IDS wants a two year ban on EU migrants from claiming benefits.
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The Sunday Times says Steve Hilton isn't returning to Downing Street or playing any role in the election campaign.0
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I can't see Libertarianism being the thing for Ukip now. Someone I've recently got to know and I consider a very ordinary person was asked who he'd vote for and said he wasn't keen on any of them 'but I might vote Ukip'. He's currently unemployed and used to doing semi-skilled fairly low pay work. The impression I got was someone sick of the current elite looking for a protest vote. However I can see why and anti-immigration party would appeal to such a person when benefits are being squeezed and new arrivals are entitled to much of the welfare state.0
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I see from that front page that we apparently have an Obesity Tsar.TheScreamingEagles said:From the Sunday Times/YouGov
76% backing both a £26,000 cap on a household’s benefits and a two-year ban on benefits for migrants.
IDS wants a two year ban on EU migrants from claiming benefits.
Abolishing that job and adding her to the ranks of the unemployed is an obvious cash saving we can make from Monday morning.
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@TSE
" Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review."
Labour did conduct a strategic defence review. It was in 1998 and set out a strategy and what need to provided to meet it. They just ignored it thereafter.
The current government however did not conduct a strategic defence review. They merely implemented a Treasury driven set of defence cuts and called it a Strategic Defence Review. So pleased were they by the exercise they intend to do it again in 2015 and again in 2020.
Given the length of time it takes to procure kit thee days the idea that one can change strategy every five years is a nonsense. Strategic Defence Reviews are now just way of dressing up cuts in defence spending.0 -
What! And I'd just put £500,000 on imminent crossover because I thought the lead was only 7?
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The bit that got his goat was Labour's failure to hold one whilst we were fighting concurrently in two major wars, concurrently.HurstLlama said:@TSE
" Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review."
Labour did conduct a strategic defence review. It was in 1998 and set out a strategy and what need to provided to meet it. They just ignored it thereafter.
The current government however did not conduct a strategic defence review. They merely implemented a Treasury driven set of defence cuts and called it a Strategic Defence Review. So pleased were they by the exercise they intend to do it again in 2015 and again in 2020.
Given the length of time it takes to procure kit thee days the idea that one can change strategy every five years is a nonsense. Strategic Defence Reviews are now just way of dressing up cuts in defence spending.0 -
So I take it you did renew your Conservative membership.TheScreamingEagles said:
On the military, I was quite annoyed at Dave and didn't renew my party membership in 2011, until a few on here, and one of my friends in the military pointed out I was being overly harsh on Dave, in his words, Labour left the coalition an even worse legacy on the military than it did on the economy. As evidenced by Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review.
All that proclaimed demand for military personnel to be well treated turned out to be faux.
That Labour left the defence budget in a mess is undeniable, that this government is no better, perhaps even worse, is also undeniable.
And did you tear up your Conservative membership card when Cameron wanted to join the Al Qaeda side in Syria ?
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I'm sorry, I shall exile myself to conhome for the next month.NickPalmer said:What! And I'd just put £500,000 on imminent crossover because I thought the lead was only 7?
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One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?
Nick Sutton @suttonnick 38m
Sunday Herald front page - "Cameron's plea to Putin: Help me stop Salmond"
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indyref
pic.twitter.com/P6dg7owKZ70 -
@FrankBooth
"... I can see why and anti-immigration party would appeal to such a person when benefits are being squeezed and new arrivals are entitled to much of the welfare state."
And what arguments would you deploy to show him the error of his thinking?0 -
It never really was. The clue was in the name and they hardly made a secret of wanting out of the EU. As you say immigration is front and centre for them now and they will have no difficulty at all in out posturing Cameron on that or the EU. Nor will the tories be to keen using gay marriage much at the GE considering Cameron couldn't take his own party with him. (and he was a comparatively recent convert too lest we forget with his opposition to section 28)FrankBooth said:I can't see Libertarianism being the thing for Ukip now.
Blow for Cameron as 128 Tory MPs vote against gay marriage
Tory opponents of the bill outnumber supporters as just 117 Conservative MPs vote in favour.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/blow-cameron-128-tory-mps-vote-against-gay-marriage0 -
No, I was one PB's foremost warmongers.another_richard said:
So I take it you did renew your Conservative membership.TheScreamingEagles said:
On the military, I was quite annoyed at Dave and didn't renew my party membership in 2011, until a few on here, and one of my friends in the military pointed out I was being overly harsh on Dave, in his words, Labour left the coalition an even worse legacy on the military than it did on the economy. As evidenced by Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review.
All that proclaimed demand for military personnel to be well treated turned out to be faux.
That Labour left the defence budget in a mess is undeniable, that this government is no better, perhaps even worse, is also undeniable.
And did you tear up your Conservative membership card when Cameron wanted to join the Al Qaeda side in Syria ?0 -
She wants to tax sugary fruit juices.GeoffM said:
I see from that front page that we apparently have an Obesity Tsar.TheScreamingEagles said:From the Sunday Times/YouGov
76% backing both a £26,000 cap on a household’s benefits and a two-year ban on benefits for migrants.
IDS wants a two year ban on EU migrants from claiming benefits.
Abolishing that job and adding her to the ranks of the unemployed is an obvious cash saving we can make from Monday morning.0 -
So that looks like UKIP doesn't want governments to pass laws about marriage.TheScreamingEagles said:
The UK Independence Party's position on this issue may be stated simply: while UKIP fully supports the concept of civil partnerships, it opposes the move to legislate for same-sex marriage.
As a democratic libertarian Party, we believe that The State should play only a minimal role in the lives of the people of the United Kingdom; more particularly, given the scope of this consultation, in the lives of the people of England and Wales. As such we support the concept of civil partnerships.
I think that can be classed as a small government policy, something which is linked to a libertarian philosophy.
Now if UKIP is saying that they would change the law to ban gay marriage that would indeed be anti-libertarian.
But I don't think they're saying that - though I don't have much idea, and have less interest, on what UKIP policy on gay marriage is.
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No, they want marriage, just for the heteros.another_richard said:
So that looks like UKIP doesn't want governments to pass laws about marriage.TheScreamingEagles said:
The UK Independence Party's position on this issue may be stated simply: while UKIP fully supports the concept of civil partnerships, it opposes the move to legislate for same-sex marriage.
As a democratic libertarian Party, we believe that The State should play only a minimal role in the lives of the people of the United Kingdom; more particularly, given the scope of this consultation, in the lives of the people of England and Wales. As such we support the concept of civil partnerships.
I think that can be classed as a small government policy, something which is linked to a libertarian philosophy.
Now if UKIP is saying that they would change the law to ban gay marriage that would indeed be anti-libertarian.
But I don't think they're saying that - though I don't have much idea, and have less interest, on what UKIP policy on gay marriage is.0 -
*tears of laughter etc.*TheScreamingEagles said:One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?
Nick Sutton @suttonnick 38m
Sunday Herald front page - "Cameron's plea to Putin: Help me stop Salmond"
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indyref
pic.twitter.com/P6dg7owKZ70 -
@TSE
"One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?"
Well moving A Moscow to Sevastopol, would be a starter for 10, and playing F St. Petersburg to Finland rather than GOB ...
Sorry misunderstood your question, thought you were talking about Diplomacy not diplomacy.0 -
Why are Labour hitting the 40's again ?
The clue is in the retail sales. At Christmas, most people realised how impoverished they have become in the last 4 years with real reductions in living standards. Spending fell in real terms.0 -
State of the nation poll finds Britain less divided on economy
Growing numbers of middle class are optimistic about recovery, but the north remains pessimistic
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/11/state-of-nation-poll-britain-economy-recovery0 -
What ? Bomb Edinburgh like Grozny ?TheScreamingEagles said:One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?
Nick Sutton @suttonnick 38m
Sunday Herald front page - "Cameron's plea to Putin: Help me stop Salmond"
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indyref
pic.twitter.com/P6dg7owKZ70 -
As you're entitled to be if you so wish.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I was one PB's foremost warmongers.another_richard said:
So I take it you did renew your Conservative membership.TheScreamingEagles said:
On the military, I was quite annoyed at Dave and didn't renew my party membership in 2011, until a few on here, and one of my friends in the military pointed out I was being overly harsh on Dave, in his words, Labour left the coalition an even worse legacy on the military than it did on the economy. As evidenced by Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review.
All that proclaimed demand for military personnel to be well treated turned out to be faux.
That Labour left the defence budget in a mess is undeniable, that this government is no better, perhaps even worse, is also undeniable.
And did you tear up your Conservative membership card when Cameron wanted to join the Al Qaeda side in Syria ?
You are the sort of Conservative who, in Avery's description, never misses a chance 'to bomb ragheads'.
But don't pretend that your membership of the Conservative party is compatible with your proclaimed demand that military personnel be well treated as a political red line.
Labour's defence policy was an easy stick to beat it with but most of those who did so lost interest in defence problems when it became Conservatives doing the underfunding and mismangement.
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Huge Labour lead !TheScreamingEagles said:MEA CULPA
The Sunday Times have put their piece
It is
Con 31
Lab 40
UKIP 14
LD 9
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I want to bomb ragheads?another_richard said:
As you're entitled to be if you so wish.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I was one PB's foremost warmongers.another_richard said:
So I take it you did renew your Conservative membership.TheScreamingEagles said:
On the military, I was quite annoyed at Dave and didn't renew my party membership in 2011, until a few on here, and one of my friends in the military pointed out I was being overly harsh on Dave, in his words, Labour left the coalition an even worse legacy on the military than it did on the economy. As evidenced by Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review.
All that proclaimed demand for military personnel to be well treated turned out to be faux.
That Labour left the defence budget in a mess is undeniable, that this government is no better, perhaps even worse, is also undeniable.
And did you tear up your Conservative membership card when Cameron wanted to join the Al Qaeda side in Syria ?
You are the sort of Conservative who, in Avery's description, never misses a chance 'to bomb ragheads'.
But don't pretend that your membership of the Conservative party is compatible with your proclaimed demand that military personnel be well treated as a political red line.
Labour's defence policy was an easy stick to beat it with but most of those who did so lost interest in defence problems when it became Conservatives doing the underfunding and mismangement.
Really? Really? I mean really?
I'm assuming you've been drinking some falling down juice this evening, because that has to be the silliest thing anyone has ever written about me on PB since Mark Senior said I was a BNP supporter, because I said, I'd find it funny if he did become an MP, he would be captioned on the news as "Nick Griffin, Barking"0 -
You mean Fitalass & co. ?another_richard said:
As you're entitled to be if you so wish.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I was one PB's foremost warmongers.another_richard said:
So I take it you did renew your Conservative membership.TheScreamingEagles said:
On the military, I was quite annoyed at Dave and didn't renew my party membership in 2011, until a few on here, and one of my friends in the military pointed out I was being overly harsh on Dave, in his words, Labour left the coalition an even worse legacy on the military than it did on the economy. As evidenced by Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review.
All that proclaimed demand for military personnel to be well treated turned out to be faux.
That Labour left the defence budget in a mess is undeniable, that this government is no better, perhaps even worse, is also undeniable.
And did you tear up your Conservative membership card when Cameron wanted to join the Al Qaeda side in Syria ?
You are the sort of Conservative who, in Avery's description, never misses a chance 'to bomb ragheads'.
But don't pretend that your membership of the Conservative party is compatible with your proclaimed demand that military personnel be well treated as a political red line.
Labour's defence policy was an easy stick to beat it with but most of those who did so lost interest in defence problems when it became Conservatives doing the underfunding and mismangement.0 -
By invading the Orkneys?0
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"The survey of 2,224 people, conducted between 6 and 11 December, found that 28% want to leave the EU, but this compares with 38% who wish to stay in and try to reduce EU powers."TheScreamingEagles said:State of the nation poll finds Britain less divided on economy
Growing numbers of middle class are optimistic about recovery, but the north remains pessimistic
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/11/state-of-nation-poll-britain-economy-recovery
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No doubt it's some kind of Osbrowne 'master strategy' that could never possibly backfire.surbiton said:
What ? Bomb Edinburgh like Grozny ?TheScreamingEagles said:One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?
Nick Sutton @suttonnick 38m
Sunday Herald front page - "Cameron's plea to Putin: Help me stop Salmond"
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indyref
pic.twitter.com/P6dg7owKZ70 -
Avery told us during the Syrian debates that the Conservative party would never pass up the chance 'to bomb ragheads'.TheScreamingEagles said:
I want to bomb ragheads?another_richard said:
As you're entitled to be if you so wish.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I was one PB's foremost warmongers.another_richard said:
So I take it you did renew your Conservative membership.TheScreamingEagles said:
On the military, I was quite annoyed at Dave and didn't renew my party membership in 2011, until a few on here, and one of my friends in the military pointed out I was being overly harsh on Dave, in his words, Labour left the coalition an even worse legacy on the military than it did on the economy. As evidenced by Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review.
All that proclaimed demand for military personnel to be well treated turned out to be faux.
That Labour left the defence budget in a mess is undeniable, that this government is no better, perhaps even worse, is also undeniable.
And did you tear up your Conservative membership card when Cameron wanted to join the Al Qaeda side in Syria ?
You are the sort of Conservative who, in Avery's description, never misses a chance 'to bomb ragheads'.
But don't pretend that your membership of the Conservative party is compatible with your proclaimed demand that military personnel be well treated as a political red line.
Labour's defence policy was an easy stick to beat it with but most of those who did so lost interest in defence problems when it became Conservatives doing the underfunding and mismangement.
Really? Really? I mean really?
I'm assuming you've been drinking some falling down juice this evening, because that has to be the silliest thing anyone has ever written about me on PB since Mark Senior said I was a BNP supporter, because I said, I'd find it funny if he did become an MP, he would be captioned on the news as "Nick Griffin, Barking"
You are I believe a Conservative member and a self proclaimed 'foremost warmonger'.
How else should I interpret this information.
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Or send in the modern day FSB equivalent of SMERSH (yes, it did exist) to use extreme prejudice on Salmond?
ROFLMSO,
God help us, Cameron, if this true, is too stupid to remain as PM.
Loved the front cover of the latest Private Eye though.
http://www.private-eye.co.uk/current_issue.php?surbiton said:
What ? Bomb Edinburgh like Grozny ?TheScreamingEagles said:One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?
Nick Sutton @suttonnick 38m
Sunday Herald front page - "Cameron's plea to Putin: Help me stop Salmond"
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indyref
pic.twitter.com/P6dg7owKZ70 -
Do UKIP say they would make gay marriage illegal ?TheScreamingEagles said:
No, they want marriage, just for the heteros.another_richard said:
So that looks like UKIP doesn't want governments to pass laws about marriage.TheScreamingEagles said:
The UK Independence Party's position on this issue may be stated simply: while UKIP fully supports the concept of civil partnerships, it opposes the move to legislate for same-sex marriage.
As a democratic libertarian Party, we believe that The State should play only a minimal role in the lives of the people of the United Kingdom; more particularly, given the scope of this consultation, in the lives of the people of England and Wales. As such we support the concept of civil partnerships.
I think that can be classed as a small government policy, something which is linked to a libertarian philosophy.
Now if UKIP is saying that they would change the law to ban gay marriage that would indeed be anti-libertarian.
But I don't think they're saying that - though I don't have much idea, and have less interest, on what UKIP policy on gay marriage is.
If they do then they're behaving in an anti-libertarian manner.
If they don't then they aren't.
In fact if UKIP are saying that they don't approve of gay marriage but would allow it to remain legal then they are being libertarian.
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SmithersJones - UKIP came second in the Barnsley Central, Middlesborough, Rotherham and South Shields by-elections. In Manchester Central UKIP only polled half its national score in 2010 and in the by-election it almost tripled its percentage of the total vote. I would imagine it has a higher than average ethnic vote and more DEs than C2s, ie not ideal UKIP territory!0
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The Hunt for Red October 2014Edin_Rokz said:Or send in the modern day FSB equivalent of SMERSH (yes, it did exist) to use extreme prejudice on Salmond?
ROFLMSO,
God help us, Cameron, if this true, is too stupid to remain as PM.
Loved the front cover of the latest Private Eye though.
http://www.private-eye.co.uk/current_issue.php?surbiton said:
What ? Bomb Edinburgh like Grozny ?TheScreamingEagles said:One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?
Nick Sutton @suttonnick 38m
Sunday Herald front page - "Cameron's plea to Putin: Help me stop Salmond"
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indyref
pic.twitter.com/P6dg7owKZ7
Sean Connery will commandeer a submarine from the Clyde and "defect" to England0 -
Edin_Rokz said:
Or send in the modern day FSB equivalent of SMERSH (yes, it did exist) to use extreme prejudice on Salmond?
ROFLMSO,
God help us, Cameron, if this true, is too stupid to remain as PM.
Loved the front cover of the latest Private Eye though.
http://www.private-eye.co.uk/current_issue.php?surbiton said:
What ? Bomb Edinburgh like Grozny ?TheScreamingEagles said:One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?
Nick Sutton @suttonnick 38m
Sunday Herald front page - "Cameron's plea to Putin: Help me stop Salmond"
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indyref
pic.twitter.com/P6dg7owKZ7
It's a Russian News Agency report the Herald are basing this on apparently and we'll see just how much meat is on it, but that front page is a belter and the Herald will fly off the shelves tomorrow.
The Eye cover was a good one, I saw it tonight and laughed when I bought it.
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Differently.another_richard said:
Avery told us during the Syrian debates that the Conservative party would never pass up the chance 'to bomb ragheads'.TheScreamingEagles said:
I want to bomb ragheads?another_richard said:
As you're entitled to be if you so wish.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, I was one PB's foremost warmongers.another_richard said:
So I take it you did renew your Conservative membership.TheScreamingEagles said:
On the military, I was quite annoyed at Dave and didn't renew my party membership in 2011, until a few on here, and one of my friends in the military pointed out I was being overly harsh on Dave, in his words, Labour left the coalition an even worse legacy on the military than it did on the economy. As evidenced by Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review.
All that proclaimed demand for military personnel to be well treated turned out to be faux.
That Labour left the defence budget in a mess is undeniable, that this government is no better, perhaps even worse, is also undeniable.
And did you tear up your Conservative membership card when Cameron wanted to join the Al Qaeda side in Syria ?
You are the sort of Conservative who, in Avery's description, never misses a chance 'to bomb ragheads'.
But don't pretend that your membership of the Conservative party is compatible with your proclaimed demand that military personnel be well treated as a political red line.
Labour's defence policy was an easy stick to beat it with but most of those who did so lost interest in defence problems when it became Conservatives doing the underfunding and mismangement.
Really? Really? I mean really?
I'm assuming you've been drinking some falling down juice this evening, because that has to be the silliest thing anyone has ever written about me on PB since Mark Senior said I was a BNP supporter, because I said, I'd find it funny if he did become an MP, he would be captioned on the news as "Nick Griffin, Barking"
You are I believe a Conservative member and a self proclaimed 'foremost warmonger'.
How else should I interpret this information.
Foremost warmonger is what someone called me in the aftermath of the Syria vote.0 -
Surbiton That is a 1997 style result, except UKIP are doing rather better than the Referendum Party and only 2% off Ashdown's score!0
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As previously seen, improving assessments of the economy are making no detectable difference to voting intention. If anything, there's a slight negative correlation for the Tories - they seem to fall further behind as people cheer up.surbiton said:
"The survey of 2,224 people, conducted between 6 and 11 December, found that 28% want to leave the EU, but this compares with 38% who wish to stay in and try to reduce EU powers."TheScreamingEagles said:State of the nation poll finds Britain less divided on economy
Growing numbers of middle class are optimistic about recovery, but the north remains pessimistic
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/11/state-of-nation-poll-britain-economy-recovery0 -
Does anyone have a link to Andy's General Election target spreadsheet - Want it to assess my GE betting position...0
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I'm not sure. We've had three quarters of growth and the polls have closed on a year ago. I wonder whether the Tories have hit a ceiling though. The start of this year does seem to be producing some good polls for Labour again. I'm not sure why though. All I can think of is the opening up of the borders to Romania and Bulgaria, reminding people that Cameron's not the immigration hawk he claimed to be in 2010.NickPalmer said:
As previously seen, improving assessments of the economy are making no detectable difference to voting intention. If anything, there's a slight negative correlation for the Tories - they seem to fall further behind as people cheer up.surbiton said:
"The survey of 2,224 people, conducted between 6 and 11 December, found that 28% want to leave the EU, but this compares with 38% who wish to stay in and try to reduce EU powers."TheScreamingEagles said:State of the nation poll finds Britain less divided on economy
Growing numbers of middle class are optimistic about recovery, but the north remains pessimistic
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/11/state-of-nation-poll-britain-economy-recovery0 -
I can't see any Indyref polling in here
ALMOST half of the British people believe that the UK would be weakened in the event of Scottish independence, according to the first poll to illustrate the extent that Scotland is valued by its neighbours.
The proportion of Britons who think the UK would suffer from a Yes vote far outnumbers those who believe the remains of the country would be strengthened by Scotland’s departure.
An Ipsos Mori opinion poll of 2,244 adults across Britain found that 47 per cent thought the UK would be weaker without Scotland, compared with just 9 per cent who thought the UK would end up stronger.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-uk-would-be-weaker-poll-1-32650510 -
@NickPalmer
There is a coalition of Generation X and Y that are determined to kick out the government. I don't see why Conservative supporters deny this. It is clear from the data.0 -
The Better Together campaign has been criticised for being leaderless and invisible. Could Putin make a difference here? Ultimately I think Cameron sees himself as an effete public schoolboy who's got no hope against a street fighting bear like Salmond. Time to call in a favour from the ex-KGB man who knows a thing or two about keeping countries together?0
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One of the interesting conundrums is that a majority of the readers of the dead tree media are over 60. And, mostly and with the greatest respect, have very little experience of life outside of the UK. On the other hand, the majority of the under 60 ' s have experienced life out of the UK, on holiday, working or even school trips. What is also amusing, is the thought that people of over 75 have a more internationalist thought patterns after having experienced the second world war through personal or second hand via close relatives.
The best way to think of the impending (or not, if the HoL's has anything to do with it) referendum, is that once people start to think about it, the Kippers will be well and truly smoked.NickPalmer said:
As previously seen, improving assessments of the economy are making no detectable difference to voting intention. If anything, there's a slight negative correlation for the Tories - they seem to fall further behind as people cheer up.surbiton said:
"The survey of 2,224 people, conducted between 6 and 11 December, found that 28% want to leave the EU, but this compares with 38% who wish to stay in and try to reduce EU powers."TheScreamingEagles said:State of the nation poll finds Britain less divided on economy
Growing numbers of middle class are optimistic about recovery, but the north remains pessimistic
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/11/state-of-nation-poll-britain-economy-recovery0 -
Edin? I doubt there is much difference in holiday patterns between the over and under 60s in terms of holidays abroad, and most of those living abroad in the likes of Spain are retirees!0
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Enjoyed The Bridge tonight: love the atmosphere, even if the story is maybe a bit convoluted. Also it's difficult to imagine so many homicides (relatively speaking) in a place like Denmark or Sweden, so you have to suspend disbelief on that score to a certain extent.
@Pulpstar
Labour targets:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE#gid=0
Conservative targets:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEk1TlVqMHhNUXFBWlhSNU1hd0FYSHc#gid=0
Liberal Democrat targets:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHJvOXRkdEVLNUhBWG1JQzBVekVjWnc#gid=0
Combined target list:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHNjRUpXY2ZYamVrVlJPbmRNdzNTd0E&usp=sheets_web0 -
Sunil As Sean Connery is an SNP supporter I doubt it.
Frank Booth Cameron should stay well clear, Darling is doing an effective, if dour, job and referendum campaigns are less influenced by personalities, presently polls have the independence side losing by almost as much as 'Yes to AV' it is Salmond who has to make the running!0 -
Yes, that seems to be right. It doesn't usually seem even based on dislike of any particular policies (people don't usually say "I'll vote for you because I'm against policy X") as much as on a deep-seated dislike of the government ("Yes, I'm going to vote to get the Tories out"). That's why it's not much affected by good or bad news.TheLastBoyScout said:@NickPalmer
There is a coalition of Generation X and Y that are determined to kick out the government. I don't see why Conservative supporters deny this. It is clear from the data.
I got 130 people to a two and a half hour public meeting peacefully discussing ideas for town planning this evening - one of the largest I've ever organised in low-key Broxtowe. I read about constituencies where people shout at politicians and get furiously angry, and think they must be on different planets.
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Ed Balls and Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander had to be ‘dragged apart’ when they almost came to blows during a blazing row, it was revealed last night.
Former Cabinet Minister Tessa Jowell was forced to intervene, saying she feared the Labour rivals were about to get into a ‘fisticuffs’.
The dust-up happened when the Shadow Chancellor and Mr Alexander clashed in a private room in the Commons over the party’s policy on Europe.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2537817/Bruiser-Balls-dragged-apart-screaming-Alexander-stop-fists-flying-Tessa-Jowell-stops-Labour-heavyweights-coming-blows-Europe-vote.html0 -
Generation X are a very Labourite group. This is probably because they grew up under Mrs Thatcher and were young in the drug-fuelled lefty utopia decade of the 1990s. It wasn't a very Conservative sort of period. Gen Y are just typical youngsters - vaguely leftish and shallowly rebellious.NickPalmer said:
Yes, that seems to be right. It doesn't usually seem even based on dislike of any particular policies (people don't usually say "I'll vote for you because I'm against policy X") as much as on a deep-seated dislike of the government ("Yes, I'm going to vote to get the Tories out"). That's why it's not much affected by good or bad news.TheLastBoyScout said:@NickPalmer
There is a coalition of Generation X and Y that are determined to kick out the government. I don't see why Conservative supporters deny this. It is clear from the data.
I got 130 people to a two and a half hour public meeting peacefully discussing ideas for town planning this evening - one of the largest I've ever organised in low-key Broxtowe. I read about constituencies where people shout at politicians and get furiously angry, and think they must be on different planets.0 -
UKIP's vile Mandela 'slave' rant exposed: Disgusting remarks made about South African president and murdered teenager Stephen Lawrence 'reveal true face of party'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2537834/UKIPs-vile-Mandela-slave-rant-exposed-New-racism-storm-following-remarks-former-South-African-President-murdered-teenager-Stephen-Lawrence.html0 -
You might also be interested in the reported 40/40 list.Pulpstar said:Does anyone have a link to Andy's General Election target spreadsheet - Want it to assess my GE betting position...
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2013/05/by-mark-wallacefollowmarkon-twitter-in-october-cchq-announced-that-it-was-launching-a-4040-strategy-aimed-at-winning-the.html
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Maybe the way to understand British politics is like this:NickPalmer said:
Yes, that seems to be right. It doesn't usually seem even based on dislike of any particular policies (people don't usually say "I'll vote for you because I'm against policy X") as much as on a deep-seated dislike of the government ("Yes, I'm going to vote to get the Tories out"). That's why it's not much affected by good or bad news.TheLastBoyScout said:@NickPalmer
There is a coalition of Generation X and Y that are determined to kick out the government. I don't see why Conservative supporters deny this. It is clear from the data.
- Only 30% of voters like Tebbit-style Conservatism.
- The Tories were on 30% for a decade.
- Under Cameron they did windmills and huskies and things and got another 5%.
- Then they reverted to Tebbit, so they went back to 30%.
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Er! And the retirees in Spain and France will of course be popping along to their local consulate to vote to get out of the EU? Of course they will be dedicated readers of the Wail, Pornpress, Torygraph or of Rupert 's media and will follow instructions - or not as the case may be.
Think the last bottle of wine has kicked in at last. Too tired to even think of laughing.HYUFD said:Edin? I doubt there is much difference in holiday patterns between the over and under 60s in terms of holidays abroad, and most of those living abroad in the likes of Spain are retirees!
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1) Set furniture on fire.
2) Ask the other people in the house for matches and petrol.
3) Say that unless you get matches and petrol, you'll leave the house and stop setting things on fire.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10566124/EU-veto-The-Tory-MPs-letter-to-David-Cameron.html0 -
Does anyone know of an excel spreadsheet available for download with constituency census data in, where you can rank them by various demographics and so on?0
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I'm not sure that exists yet. If not, I might have a go at doing one sometime. A lot of that sort of data is available on the UKPollingReport website.Quincel said:Does anyone know of an excel spreadsheet available for download with constituency census data in, where you can rank them by various demographics and so on?
I recently did a spreadsheet for the 2010 general election results because I couldn't find a decent one anywhere. There were a couple of others but they weren't very easy to read.0 -
'NickPalmer said:
'As previously seen, improving assessments of the economy are making no detectable difference to voting intention. If anything, there's a slight negative correlation for the Tories - they seem to fall further behind as people cheer up.'
So how do you explain why Labour's poll lead has halved in the past 12 months?0 -
Most of the movement came last summer, before the public had picked up any sense of an economic recovery. Since the recovery became "official", Labour's position has stabilised or possibly even ticked up slightly.john_zims said:'NickPalmer said:
'As previously seen, improving assessments of the economy are making no detectable difference to voting intention. If anything, there's a slight negative correlation for the Tories - they seem to fall further behind as people cheer up.'
So how do you explain why Labour's poll lead has halved in the past 12 months?0 -
Qui cel: www.nomisweb.co.uk
Go into wizard query, select census 2011, and you can then download virtually any data for parliamentary constituencies (or wards or local authorities etc)0 -
Interesting list. Shows how far the Tories are struggling in Scotland that they only have 1 MP and aren't bothering to target any seats there. Might as well have gone with the suggested split off and rebrand.anotherDave said:
You might also be interested in the reported 40/40 list.Pulpstar said:Does anyone have a link to Andy's General Election target spreadsheet - Want it to assess my GE betting position...
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2013/05/by-mark-wallacefollowmarkon-twitter-in-october-cchq-announced-that-it-was-launching-a-4040-strategy-aimed-at-winning-the.html
The one that must surprised me was Colchester as Russell is standing again.
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Tu rigoles.anotherDave said:How is the Tea Party damaging the Republican Party?
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If Winston McKenzie has ever been a Pentecostal pastor, that's news to me. Boxer, businessman, entrepreneur, maverick, publican, whatever, but not (as far as I know) pastor. Nor is he an archetype of the normal UKIP candidateNinoinoz said:
So, I imagined that Black Pentecostal pastor standing in the Croydon North by-election, did I?MikeL said:
Add in the Catholic church and you get to 2%.Ninoinoz said:Naughty, naughty.
The Catholic Church's congregations have outnumbered the C. of E.'s for many years now. You are also forgetting the upsurge in evangelical and Black churches. Amazing how one talk about immigration and there's always some guy who thinks it won't affect him.
Also, taking one week is a rather ridiculous way of measuring adherence to a faith.
Of course not everyone will go every week but well, well under 10% are going even once a month - if it's an important part of your life you will manage to go once a month.
Yes, of course there are black churches - but are their attendees really a key source of support for UKIP? I wouldn't have thought so.
Black Pentecostalists are particularly hostile to homosexuality. See Africa for details.
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Edin The point was about living abroad0