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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wythenshawe and Sale E could be a dry run for Toby Young’s

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  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,908
    I think trying to make some sort of a pre-election deal at next GE is precisely what UKIP should be trying to do.

    They could for example agree not to stand in possible Tory seats in return for a free run in say 5 or 6 seats that the Tories weren't going to win anyway. Additionally they'd want an agreement on the EU referendum.

    They could then run a national message saying that a vote for UKIP where they stand is a guarantee of a referendum and where UKIP doesn't stand then a vote for the Tories is the next best thing.

    For 'Tories' one could easily substitute 'Labour' if they decided to agree to a referendum.

    I can't quite see it happening, but if I was a UKIP supporter it'd be precisely the route I'd be following. (admittedly my thinking here is a bit off-the-cuff)


    I'm rather basing this on the premise that all UKIP want is an EU referendum and a decent shot at promoting the out vote. I don't really see them as a viable political movement beyond that narrow aim, but if their ambitions are wider then perhaps the above wouldn't be a good idea.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Danny565 said:

    GeoffM said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    5 years from now, you'll be voting UKIP.

    But which UKIP, Sean?

    The free-trade libertarianism of Richard Tyndall?

    Or the social conservatism and trade barriers of Paul_Mid_Beds?

    UKIP used to be a free market libertarian party. And I know Richard still thinks it is that (and I could possibly support it if it was), but many of its supporters on this board have very different views. UKIP seems to be the broadest church of them all - and that is both a challenge and an opportunity.
    That's very true. The original free market libertarian UKIP had a lot that I liked - in terms of how they were going to leave me alone to live my life freely. The more recent sounds coming from UKIP are just a different flavour of authoritarianism.

    If the ideas on personal freedom make a comeback then I could well vote for them in the Euros.

    ...seems to be starting to take UKIP in the direction of the French National Front, by mixing conservative policies on immigration and crime with populist leftwing messages on the economy and welfare state (marrying it all together under an anti-globalisation, anti-big business, pro-working man banner).
    I've not noticed UKIP adopting a protectionist, statist FN platform.
  • RodCrosby said:

    .
    All in all an ideal seat for UKIP who would be well advised to put up a Christian, anti abortion, anti gay marriage candidate. If they could do a Newbury anywhere this is the place.

    His name is Paul Nuttall....
    According to Paul Nuttals Wikipedia page: " A Roman Catholic, Nuttall opposes abortion and is a member of the Society for the Protection of Unborn Children (SPUC) and has spoken at a number of their events. He is also well known for his stances regarding crime and anti-social behaviour. He has called for tougher prison sentences for persistent re-offenders, drug dealers and violent criminals and for an increase in prison capacity in his region. Controversially, he signed the e-petition which calls for the reintroduction of the death penalty for child and serial killers."

    While Paul Nuttall is a committed Unionist, he has called for the introduction of an English Parliament and presented the new UKIP devolution policy at the annual conference at Eastbourne in September 2011. He is a climate change sceptic. Nuttall is opposed to the construction of wind farms and believes in order to maintain energy security and reduce fuel poverty, nuclear power is the only long term alternative to traditional carbon forms of fuel. He favours banning burqas in public places, citing the use of CCTV and security as his primary reason to take this stance.

    He is highly involved in the UKIP Save The Pub campaign which highlights the issues surrounded the increase in pub closures in England. As part of this, he is strongly opposed to a blanket smoking ban enforced on all pubs and believes that individual landlords should choose whether to make the pub smoke free or not"
  • HYUFD said:

    SmithersJones The last election result also had UKIP slightly above their national score in Wythenshawe, and their poll rating has jumped since then and they have beaten the Tories in all recent similar northern by-elections in Labour seats.

    So what? Their vote share increased by 0.3% on their 2005 showing in the constituency. The Tories were 7,000 short of the Labour total in 2010, almost 11,000 short in 2005 and 13,000 short in 2001. There are just not enough Tories for UKIP to win over in the constituency for UKIP to have a realistic chance of overhauling a rejuvenated Labour party in their own backyard. This isn't Newbury we are talking about it's the socialist republic of Manchester.

    Now the nearest by-election was in Manchester Central (two constituencies away) and UKIP only managed to improve their vote share from 2010 by 3% and came fourth. Now I don't expect Wythenshawe to be so unforgiving for UKIP as that, as I have said, but even so this is not good UKIP territory.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Omnium, it's hard to see a deal that could satisfy both sides. Not only in electoral, pragmatic terms, but also on the basis that quite a few UKIPpers are either ex-Labour (but loyally anti-Tory) or ex-Tory and as opposed to them as People's Front of Judea are to the Judean's People's Front.

    As mentioned earlier by Mr. Eagles, UKIP high command (which wasn't very commanding) ordered the UKIP candidate not to oppose a sceptical blue incumbent MP last time round. The UKIP candidate ignored the order, stood, and the sceptic was defeated by a pro-EU Lib Dem.

    Mr. Young is being a silly sausage.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Omnium said:


    They could for example agree not to stand in possible Tory seats in return for a free run in say 5 or 6 seats that the Tories weren't going to win anyway.

    Eastleigh was/is a Conservative target seat. During the by-election they seemed to have no local party at all.
  • MikeK said:

    TSE. The man most scared, frightened, terrified and perplexed by the rise of UKIP.

    Do you look under the bed and search the cupboards, to see if there are any kippers lurking there, TSE?

    Ah you think I view kippers in the same way Kippers view any immigrant to this country, particularly non Christian ones.

    The main thing that perplexes me about UKIP is this.

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Perhaps you could explain that to me?
  • I may invite the chief scout, Bear Grylls, to stand in Sale.

    Only he can bring decent British values to Greater Manchester.

    I see nothing good in a Conservative Party whose only real achievement in office was to double Labour's debt in just five years, despite telling voters they are "paying down the debt".

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I may invite the chief scout, Bear Grylls, to stand in Sale.

    Only he can bring decent British values to Greater Manchester.

    I see nothing good in a Conservative Party whose only real achievement in office was to double Labour's debt in just five years, despite telling voters they are "paying down the debt".

    I doubt Labour will campaign too hard on that basis. "Vote Labour, so we can run up the debt even more quickly" doesn't sound like a vote winner to me.
  • Mr. Omnium, it's hard to see a deal that could satisfy both sides. Not only in electoral, pragmatic terms, but also on the basis that quite a few UKIPpers are either ex-Labour (but loyally anti-Tory) or ex-Tory and as opposed to them as People's Front of Judea are to the Judean's People's Front.

    As mentioned earlier by Mr. Eagles, UKIP high command (which wasn't very commanding) ordered the UKIP candidate not to oppose a sceptical blue incumbent MP last time round. The UKIP candidate ignored the order, stood, and the sceptic was defeated by a pro-EU Lib Dem.

    Mr. Young is being a silly sausage.

    Mr Dancer its only a certain type of Tory some of us are allergic to. The tough Yorkshire Morris Dancer conservative types are alright. its the wimpy smeary Notting Hill liberal Tory twerps that are the problem!

    And in the case of the wets, rather than PFJ vs JPF, its more a case of what happens when you give up smoking. You've known its been bad for you for years and now you've finally managed to kick the habit you are never going back to it

  • Danny565 said:

    GeoffM said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    5 years from now, you'll be voting UKIP.

    But which UKIP, Sean?

    The free-trade libertarianism of Richard Tyndall?

    Or the social conservatism and trade barriers of Paul_Mid_Beds?

    UKIP used to be a free market libertarian party. And I know Richard still thinks it is that (and I could possibly support it if it was), but many of its supporters on this board have very different views. UKIP seems to be the broadest church of them all - and that is both a challenge and an opportunity.
    That's very true. The original free market libertarian UKIP had a lot that I liked - in terms of how they were going to leave me alone to live my life freely. The more recent sounds coming from UKIP are just a different flavour of authoritarianism.

    If the ideas on personal freedom make a comeback then I could well vote for them in the Euros.

    ...seems to be starting to take UKIP in the direction of the French National Front, by mixing conservative policies on immigration and crime with populist leftwing messages on the economy and welfare state (marrying it all together under an anti-globalisation, anti-big business, pro-working man banner).
    I've not noticed UKIP adopting a protectionist, statist FN platform.
    It useful to see what tedious little ploys the Tories are testing out this week though isn't it? [Yawn] trying to create this phantom division in UKIP (no doubt to reflect their own chasmic divisions) is quite twee.
  • My final thought for the evening, if Toby Young wants an electoral pact, the best way to achieve this would be under a new electoral voting system.

    Perhaps we should have another referendum on AV.
  • antifrank said:

    I may invite the chief scout, Bear Grylls, to stand in Sale.

    Only he can bring decent British values to Greater Manchester.

    I see nothing good in a Conservative Party whose only real achievement in office was to double Labour's debt in just five years, despite telling voters they are "paying down the debt".

    I doubt Labour will campaign too hard on that basis. "Vote Labour, so we can run up the debt even more quickly" doesn't sound like a vote winner to me.
    Labour will simply match the Conservative plans. And neither party will do a sausage to reduce the debt. The Government need to take a long walk in cold woodlands and ask themselves why they have tried to hoodwink the electorate into thinking they are paying off debt.

    Storm's coming.

  • RodCrosby said:

    .
    All in all an ideal seat for UKIP who would be well advised to put up a Christian, anti abortion, anti gay marriage candidate. If they could do a Newbury anywhere this is the place.

    His name is Paul Nuttall....
    According to Paul Nuttals Wikipedia page: " A Roman Catholic, Nuttall opposes abortion and is a member of the Society for the Protection of Unborn Children (SPUC) and has spoken at a number of their events. He is also well known for his stances regarding crime and anti-social behaviour. He has called for tougher prison sentences for persistent re-offenders, drug dealers and violent criminals and for an increase in prison capacity in his region. Controversially, he signed the e-petition which calls for the reintroduction of the death penalty for child and serial killers."

    While Paul Nuttall is a committed Unionist, he has called for the introduction of an English Parliament and presented the new UKIP devolution policy at the annual conference at Eastbourne in September 2011. He is a climate change sceptic. Nuttall is opposed to the construction of wind farms and believes in order to maintain energy security and reduce fuel poverty, nuclear power is the only long term alternative to traditional carbon forms of fuel. He favours banning burqas in public places, citing the use of CCTV and security as his primary reason to take this stance.

    He is highly involved in the UKIP Save The Pub campaign which highlights the issues surrounded the increase in pub closures in England. As part of this, he is strongly opposed to a blanket smoking ban enforced on all pubs and believes that individual landlords should choose whether to make the pub smoke free or not"
    Allowing smoking indoors is not a good way to protect unborn children.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Scout, your comment regarding deficit/debt is either wilfully misleading to the point of deceit or you genuinely don't understand why it's sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.

    In case the fez is the answer, I'll explain:
    The deficit upon the Coalition (we don't have a Conservative Government) coming to power was larger than it is now.
    Labour called for the cuts to be slower because they were 'too far and too fast'.
    Slower cuts would have meant higher spending.
    Higher spending would've meant that (relative to what happened) the deficit would have been higher.
    A higher deficit would lead to a higher debt.

    The only way to completely reduce the deficit would have been to cut and tax to make up the entire shortfall immediately. That would've probably hamstrung growth (which was also not helped by the eurozone sovereign debt crisis), resulting in tax takes below forecasts and more cuts.

    Mr. 2013, ha, I feel the need to correct a common (nigh on universal!) misconception: I am a rightwinger, but not a Conservative. I'll be voting UKIP at the euros. Has to be Conservative at the General Election because Balls is my MP and the only realistic alternative is the Conservative candidate.

    Anyway, now that's out of the way: I concur with your contempt for the dreadfully guilty feeling, politically correct, warmist sorts. I think Cameron has some decent ideas but his greenery, weakness on the EU and frittering away of money on aid are not my cup of tea. And Defence should've been ringfenced, not Health.

    ...don't lots of smokers relapse? I've never been one (habitually, I tried a few at the apex of juvenile rebellion to see what it was like).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    MikeK said:

    TSE. The man most scared, frightened, terrified and perplexed by the rise of UKIP.

    Do you look under the bed and search the cupboards, to see if there are any kippers lurking there, TSE?

    Ah you think I view kippers in the same way Kippers view any immigrant to this country, particularly non Christian ones.

    The main thing that perplexes me about UKIP is this.

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Perhaps you could explain that to me?
    I think you are being harsh with your generalisation of how kippers think about immigrants.

    But UKIP aren't as libertarian as they say that seems to be quite true

    It depends on to what extent one thinks gay marriage affects people who aren't involved in a gay marriage I suppose


  • ...don't lots of smokers relapse? I've never been one (habitually, I tried a few at the apex of juvenile rebellion to see what it was like).

    Giving up smoking is easy, I've done it loads of times.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Isam, isn't that like asking how the age of consent affects those who have taken a vow of chastity?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    In 2010 The Tory and Libdem vote were almost equal and each was just over half of the Labour vote . If UKIP took half of each it would put them in second but still nowhere near Labour. What would have to happen is for all the Tory UKIP and Libdem vote to come together under one banner and that would possibly defeat Labour but I really cannot see that happening under any circumstances

    From long distance it looks like the DE to C2 ratio in Wythenshawe looks like it might be the wrong way round for Ukip but if it was the other way round they'd be in with a shot imo. As it is 2nd is more likely be the best they could get.

    Actual question then is how much is it worth to cement the narrative of Ukip as 2nd party to Labour in the north and 2nd party to Con in the south.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Mr. Isam, isn't that like asking how the age of consent affects those who have taken a vow of chastity?

    Yes it is, but I can see why one could take a vow of chastity and still have an opinion on the age of consent
  • Mr. Scout, your comment regarding deficit/debt is either wilfully misleading to the point of deceit or you genuinely don't understand why it's sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.

    In case the fez is the answer, I'll explain:
    The deficit upon the Coalition (we don't have a Conservative Government) coming to power was larger than it is now.
    Labour called for the cuts to be slower because they were 'too far and too fast'.
    Slower cuts would have meant higher spending.
    Higher spending would've meant that (relative to what happened) the deficit would have been higher.
    A higher deficit would lead to a higher debt.

    The only way to completely reduce the deficit would have been to cut and tax to make up the entire shortfall immediately. That would've probably hamstrung growth (which was also not helped by the eurozone sovereign debt crisis), resulting in tax takes below forecasts and more cuts.

    Mr. 2013, ha, I feel the need to correct a common (nigh on universal!) misconception: I am a rightwinger, but not a Conservative. I'll be voting UKIP at the euros. Has to be Conservative at the General Election because Balls is my MP and the only realistic alternative is the Conservative candidate.

    Anyway, now that's out of the way: I concur with your contempt for the dreadfully guilty feeling, politically correct, warmist sorts. I think Cameron has some decent ideas but his greenery, weakness on the EU and frittering away of money on aid are not my cup of tea. And Defence should've been ringfenced, not Health.

    ...don't lots of smokers relapse? I've never been one (habitually, I tried a few at the apex of juvenile rebellion to see what it was like).

    Then why say they have been paying off debt? That is sillier than an elephant eating caviar.
  • isam said:

    MikeK said:

    TSE. The man most scared, frightened, terrified and perplexed by the rise of UKIP.

    Do you look under the bed and search the cupboards, to see if there are any kippers lurking there, TSE?

    Ah you think I view kippers in the same way Kippers view any immigrant to this country, particularly non Christian ones.

    The main thing that perplexes me about UKIP is this.

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Perhaps you could explain that to me?
    I think you are being harsh with your generalisation of how kippers think about immigrants.

    But UKIP aren't as libertarian as they say that seems to be quite true

    It depends on to what extent one thinks gay marriage affects people who aren't involved in a gay marriage I suppose
    The first part of my post, was my terrible attempt to troll MikeK's terrible trolling in his original post.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited January 2014
    My wife texted me this joke earlier

    The media say it's ridiculous that David Cameron's barber got an MBE.

    But imagine the restraint it takes not to stab the [moderated]
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Scout, because Osborne, like frontbenchers on all sides, has shamelessly (and shamefully) conflated different terms. The media are too stupid or too compliant to point this out.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    MikeK said:

    TSE. The man most scared, frightened, terrified and perplexed by the rise of UKIP.

    Do you look under the bed and search the cupboards, to see if there are any kippers lurking there, TSE?

    Ah you think I view kippers in the same way Kippers view any immigrant to this country, particularly non Christian ones.

    The main thing that perplexes me about UKIP is this.

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Perhaps you could explain that to me?
    Immigration and gay "marriage" are linked in a rather interesting way:

    They both are about succession policy. In immigration's case, the next generation of Britons comes from abroad, in same-sex "marriage" it seems to be abroad also.

    Interestingly, UKIP seem to tolerate limited amounts of both, but object strongly when either is institutionalised, in effect, making a failure permanent.

    But you seem to have twigged where UKIP's support is now coming from in your first line; the mainly Christian social conservatives. Viewed from this perspective, Farage's moves about gay "marriage" and refugees are of a piece. Perhaps it is no coincidence that Farage is descended from Christian refugees himself.

    Cameron's foreign and domestic policies have created room for a socially conservative party of the Right.
  • MrJones said:

    In 2010 The Tory and Libdem vote were almost equal and each was just over half of the Labour vote . If UKIP took half of each it would put them in second but still nowhere near Labour. What would have to happen is for all the Tory UKIP and Libdem vote to come together under one banner and that would possibly defeat Labour but I really cannot see that happening under any circumstances

    From long distance it looks like the DE to C2 ratio in Wythenshawe looks like it might be the wrong way round for Ukip but if it was the other way round they'd be in with a shot imo. As it is 2nd is more likely be the best they could get.

    Actual question then is how much is it worth to cement the narrative of Ukip as 2nd party to Labour in the north and 2nd party to Con in the south.
    I think it is an important step to becoming a major national party. If you can argue across England and perhaps in time across most of the UK that only you can defeat X and arguably are challenging both major parties nationally then that's not a bad place to be.

    The Libdems were on their way to that position and then threw it away for a whiff of power.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited January 2014



    Then why say they have been paying off debt? That is sillier than an elephant eating caviar.

    Because at least 95% of the public is never going to understand the difference between debt and deficit.

    So they have to use some language to indicate that they are tackling the problem.

    Unsatisfactory I know but that's the position they are in.
  • Ninoinoz said:

    MikeK said:

    TSE. The man most scared, frightened, terrified and perplexed by the rise of UKIP.

    Do you look under the bed and search the cupboards, to see if there are any kippers lurking there, TSE?

    Ah you think I view kippers in the same way Kippers view any immigrant to this country, particularly non Christian ones.

    The main thing that perplexes me about UKIP is this.

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Perhaps you could explain that to me?
    Immigration and gay "marriage" are linked in a rather interesting way:

    They both are about succession policy. In immigration's case, the next generation of Britons comes from abroad, in same-sex "marriage" it seems to be abroad also.

    Interestingly, UKIP seem to tolerate limited amounts of both, but object strongly when either is institutionalised, in effect, making a failure permanent.

    But you seem to have twigged where UKIP's support is now coming from in your first line; the mainly Christian social conservatives. Viewed from this perspective, Farage's moves about gay "marriage" and refugees are of a piece. Perhaps it is no coincidence that Farage is descended from Christian refugees himself.

    Cameron's foreign and domestic policies have created room for a socially conservative party of the Right.
    That's why I could never vote UKIP, I'd make a terrible Social Conservative.

    I mean, I once tried to be a Social Conservative, it lasted for about ten hours.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited January 2014
    Ninoinoz said:

    But you seem to have twigged where UKIP's support is now coming from in your first line; the mainly Christian social conservatives. Viewed from this perspective, Farage's moves about gay "marriage" and refugees are of a piece. Perhaps it is no coincidence that Farage is descended from Christian refugees himself.

    Cameron's foreign and domestic policies have created room for a socially conservative party of the Right.

    How many Christian social conservatives are there in the UK?

    Each Sunday the grand total of 1% of the population attends a C of E church.

    It's all very well if some people say (ah, but many more people believe etc etc) - if you really care and it is important to you then you would go to church at least reasonably often, if not every week.

    Surveys show religion plays either no part or at most a tiny part in the lives of the vast majority of people.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Wowzers!

    UKIP into 4s from 12s for W&SE w Ladbrokes!

    Now 4/6 for 2nd place (from 10/11)
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    Mr. Isam, isn't that like asking how the age of consent affects those who have taken a vow of chastity?

    What sort of dumb comment is this?

    Of course people who are chaste care about the age of consent.

    To think that such people do not care about the protection of children in particular and society in general is absurd.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Ninoinoz, changing the age from 16 to 21 would not affect children. I was not having a go at those who have taken such vows for religious reasons, who are asexual, or who are incredibly bad at hooking up with other people.
  • isam said:

    Wowzers!

    UKIP into 4s from 12s for W&SE w Ladbrokes!

    Now 4/6 for 2nd place (from 10/11)

    Looks like Antifrank's wish is coming true.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    MikeL said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    But you seem to have twigged where UKIP's support is now coming from in your first line; the mainly Christian social conservatives. Viewed from this perspective, Farage's moves about gay "marriage" and refugees are of a piece. Perhaps it is no coincidence that Farage is descended from Christian refugees himself.

    Cameron's foreign and domestic policies have created room for a socially conservative party of the Right.

    How many Christian social conservatives are there in the UK?

    Each Sunday the grand total of 1% of the population attends a C of E church.
    Naughty, naughty.

    The Catholic Church's congregations have outnumbered the C. of E.'s for many years now. You are also forgetting the upsurge in evangelical and Black churches. Amazing how one talk about immigration and there's always some guy who thinks it won't affect him.

    Also, taking one week is a rather ridiculous way of measuring adherence to a faith.
  • Mr. Scout, your comment regarding deficit/debt is either wilfully misleading to the point of deceit or you genuinely don't understand why it's sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.

    In case the fez is the answer, I'll explain:
    The deficit upon the Coalition (we don't have a Conservative Government) coming to power was larger than it is now.
    Labour called for the cuts to be slower because they were 'too far and too fast'.
    Slower cuts would have meant higher spending.
    Higher spending would've meant that (relative to what happened) the deficit would have been higher.
    A higher deficit would lead to a higher debt.

    The only way to completely reduce the deficit would have been to cut and tax to make up the entire shortfall immediately. That would've probably hamstrung growth (which was also not helped by the eurozone sovereign debt crisis), resulting in tax takes below forecasts and more cuts.

    Mr. 2013, ha, I feel the need to correct a common (nigh on universal!) misconception: I am a rightwinger, but not a Conservative. I'll be voting UKIP at the euros. Has to be Conservative at the General Election because Balls is my MP and the only realistic alternative is the Conservative candidate.

    Anyway, now that's out of the way: I concur with your contempt for the dreadfully guilty feeling, politically correct, warmist sorts. I think Cameron has some decent ideas but his greenery, weakness on the EU and frittering away of money on aid are not my cup of tea. And Defence should've been ringfenced, not Health.

    ...don't lots of smokers relapse? I've never been one (habitually, I tried a few at the apex of juvenile rebellion to see what it was like).

    I stand corrected!

    Some relapse usually in a moment of weakness. I once gave up for a non-smoking woman. We broke up, I started again and so did she!. The second time I gave up was four/ five years ago and I haven't looked back. My history with the Tories is similar. I gave up on them in the 90's only to be tempted back in 2004 but now not a chance.

    Thats the thing I think many of those who are deserting the Tories are not people who would do so lightly. They are serious about giving them up.
  • MikeL said:



    Then why say they have been paying off debt? That is sillier than an elephant eating caviar.

    Because at least 95% of the public is never going to understand the difference between debt and deficit.

    So they have to use some language to indicate that they are tackling the problem.

    Unsatisfactory I know but that's the position they are in.
    It is odd that they feel they have to lie.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Np, Mr. 2013. I must have a certain Conservative quality (is it the avatar?), as many have made the mistake before.

    Anyway, I am off. The Bridge starts at 9pm on BBC4, for those interested.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Np, Mr. 2013. I must have a certain Conservative quality (is it the avatar?), as many have made the mistake before.

    Anyway, I am off. The Bridge starts at 9pm on BBC4, for those interested.

    I've become absolutely hooked on The Bridge. It is better than Homeland.

  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    MikeL said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    But you seem to have twigged where UKIP's support is now coming from in your first line; the mainly Christian social conservatives. Viewed from this perspective, Farage's moves about gay "marriage" and refugees are of a piece. Perhaps it is no coincidence that Farage is descended from Christian refugees himself.

    Cameron's foreign and domestic policies have created room for a socially conservative party of the Right.

    How many Christian social conservatives are there in the UK?

    Each Sunday the grand total of 1% of the population attends a C of E church.

    It's all very well if some people say (ah, but many more people believe etc etc) - if you really care and it is important to you then you would go to church at least reasonably often, if not every week.

    Surveys show religion plays either no part or at most a tiny part in the lives of the vast majority of people.
    Blimey, surveys. It's come to this.

    The number of new schools being founded by faith in addition to the considerable number already in existence.

    Christian food banks seem to be springing up all over the place.

    All of which you seem oblivious to.

    BTW, would you mind applying the your criteria to political parties for me. Thanks.
  • Nuttals speech in September:

    They are clearly aiming for labour votes and to position themselves as the successors to people like Paul Goggins:

    "Firstly, the Labour party itself has abandoned it's working class roots. If you look at the opinion polls, it shows that between 1997 and 2010, the majority of Labour votes lost, were in working class areas. These people are either looking elsewhere to other political parties. Many of them voted Liberal Democrat. They won’t be doing that again.

    One or two and it’s literally one or two, will vote Conservative. Some unfortunately will hold their nose and voted for the BNP. But most have not voted at all. They’ve given up. And why? It’s because Labour MPs don’t represent them any more. In the days of Clement Attlee the Labour MPs came from the mills, the mines and the factories.

    The Labour MPs today follow the same route as the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. They go to private school, they go to Oxbridge, they get a job in an MP’s office, and they become an MP.

    None of them ladies and gentlemen, would know what it’s like in a working man’s club. None of them would know a council estate if it fell out the sky, if it hit them on the head"

  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    My wife texted me this joke earlier

    The media say it's ridiculous that David Cameron's barber got an MBE.

    But imagine the restraint it takes not to stab the [moderated]

    Didn't Mussolini have his hand on a revolver as he was shaved by his barber?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited January 2014
    Ninoinoz said:

    Naughty, naughty.

    The Catholic Church's congregations have outnumbered the C. of E.'s for many years now. You are also forgetting the upsurge in evangelical and Black churches. Amazing how one talk about immigration and there's always some guy who thinks it won't affect him.

    Also, taking one week is a rather ridiculous way of measuring adherence to a faith.

    Add in the Catholic church and you get to 2%.

    Of course not everyone will go every week but well, well under 10% are going even once a month - if it's an important part of your life you will manage to go once a month.

    Yes, of course there are black churches - but are their attendees really a key source of support for UKIP? I wouldn't have thought so.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    MikeL said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    But you seem to have twigged where UKIP's support is now coming from in your first line; the mainly Christian social conservatives. Viewed from this perspective, Farage's moves about gay "marriage" and refugees are of a piece. Perhaps it is no coincidence that Farage is descended from Christian refugees himself.

    Cameron's foreign and domestic policies have created room for a socially conservative party of the Right.

    How many Christian social conservatives are there in the UK?

    Each Sunday the grand total of 1% of the population attends a C of E church.

    It's all very well if some people say (ah, but many more people believe etc etc) - if you really care and it is important to you then you would go to church at least reasonably often, if not every week.

    Surveys show religion plays either no part or at most a tiny part in the lives of the vast majority of people.
    Perhaps you would care to comment on this:

    http://uk.news.yahoo.com/one-10-babies-england-now-muslims-census-154908623.html#C7xRRiB

  • RodCrosby said:

    .
    All in all an ideal seat for UKIP who would be well advised to put up a Christian, anti abortion, anti gay marriage candidate. If they could do a Newbury anywhere this is the place.

    His name is Paul Nuttall....
    According to Paul Nuttals Wikipedia page: " A Roman Catholic, Nuttall opposes abortion and is a member of the Society for the Protection of Unborn Children (SPUC) and has spoken at a number of their events. He is also well known for his stances regarding crime and anti-social behaviour. He has called for tougher prison sentences for persistent re-offenders, drug dealers and violent criminals and for an increase in prison capacity in his region. Controversially, he signed the e-petition which calls for the reintroduction of the death penalty for child and serial killers."

    While Paul Nuttall is a committed Unionist, he has called for the introduction of an English Parliament and presented the new UKIP devolution policy at the annual conference at Eastbourne in September 2011. He is a climate change sceptic. Nuttall is opposed to the construction of wind farms and believes in order to maintain energy security and reduce fuel poverty, nuclear power is the only long term alternative to traditional carbon forms of fuel. He favours banning burqas in public places, citing the use of CCTV and security as his primary reason to take this stance.

    He is highly involved in the UKIP Save The Pub campaign which highlights the issues surrounded the increase in pub closures in England. As part of this, he is strongly opposed to a blanket smoking ban enforced on all pubs and believes that individual landlords should choose whether to make the pub smoke free or not"
    Should be Prime Minister based on the Save The Pub campaign alone!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Danny565 said:

    GeoffM said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    5 years from now, you'll be voting UKIP.

    But which UKIP, Sean?

    The free-trade libertarianism of Richard Tyndall?

    Or the social conservatism and trade barriers of Paul_Mid_Beds?

    UKIP used to be a free market libertarian party. And I know Richard still thinks it is that (and I could possibly support it if it was), but many of its supporters on this board have very different views. UKIP seems to be the broadest church of them all - and that is both a challenge and an opportunity.
    That's very true. The original free market libertarian UKIP had a lot that I liked - in terms of how they were going to leave me alone to live my life freely. The more recent sounds coming from UKIP are just a different flavour of authoritarianism.

    If the ideas on personal freedom make a comeback then I could well vote for them in the Euros.

    ...seems to be starting to take UKIP in the direction of the French National Front, by mixing conservative policies on immigration and crime with populist leftwing messages on the economy and welfare state (marrying it all together under an anti-globalisation, anti-big business, pro-working man banner).
    I've not noticed UKIP adopting a protectionist, statist FN platform.
    We haven't.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Mr. Scout, your comment regarding deficit/debt is either wilfully misleading to the point of deceit or you genuinely don't understand why it's sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.

    In case the fez is the answer, I'll explain:
    The deficit upon the Coalition (we don't have a Conservative Government) coming to power was larger than it is now.
    Labour called for the cuts to be slower because they were 'too far and too fast'.
    Slower cuts would have meant higher spending.
    Higher spending would've meant that (relative to what happened) the deficit would have been higher.
    A higher deficit would lead to a higher debt.

    The only way to completely reduce the deficit would have been to cut and tax to make up the entire shortfall immediately. That would've probably hamstrung growth (which was also not helped by the eurozone sovereign debt crisis), resulting in tax takes below forecasts and more cuts.

    Mr. 2013, ha, I feel the need to correct a common (nigh on universal!) misconception: I am a rightwinger, but not a Conservative. I'll be voting UKIP at the euros. Has to be Conservative at the General Election because Balls is my MP and the only realistic alternative is the Conservative candidate.

    Anyway, now that's out of the way: I concur with your contempt for the dreadfully guilty feeling, politically correct, warmist sorts. I think Cameron has some decent ideas but his greenery, weakness on the EU and frittering away of money on aid are not my cup of tea. And Defence should've been ringfenced, not Health.

    ...don't lots of smokers relapse? I've never been one (habitually, I tried a few at the apex of juvenile rebellion to see what it was like).

    I stand corrected!

    Some relapse usually in a moment of weakness. I once gave up for a non-smoking woman. We broke up, I started again and so did she!. The second time I gave up was four/ five years ago and I haven't looked back. My history with the Tories is similar. I gave up on them in the 90's only to be tempted back in 2004 but now not a chance.

    Thats the thing I think many of those who are deserting the Tories are not people who would do so lightly. They are serious about giving them up.
    "I stand corrected!"

    Are you wearing orthopaedic shoes?
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    MikeL said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    Naughty, naughty.

    The Catholic Church's congregations have outnumbered the C. of E.'s for many years now. You are also forgetting the upsurge in evangelical and Black churches. Amazing how one talk about immigration and there's always some guy who thinks it won't affect him.

    Also, taking one week is a rather ridiculous way of measuring adherence to a faith.

    Add in the Catholic church and you get to 2%.

    Of course not everyone will go every week but well, well under 10% are going even once a month - if it's an important part of your life you will manage to go once a month.

    Yes, of course there are black churches - but are their attendees really a key source of support for UKIP? I wouldn't have thought so.
    So, I imagined that Black Pentecostal pastor standing in the Croydon North by-election, did I?

    Black Pentecostalists are particularly hostile to homosexuality. See Africa for details.
  • isam said:

    Mr. Scout, your comment regarding deficit/debt is either wilfully misleading to the point of deceit or you genuinely don't understand why it's sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.

    In case the fez is the answer, I'll explain:
    The deficit upon the Coalition (we don't have a Conservative Government) coming to power was larger than it is now.
    Labour called for the cuts to be slower because they were 'too far and too fast'.
    Slower cuts would have meant higher spending.
    Higher spending would've meant that (relative to what happened) the deficit would have been higher.
    A higher deficit would lead to a higher debt.

    The only way to completely reduce the deficit would have been to cut and tax to make up the entire shortfall immediately. That would've probably hamstrung growth (which was also not helped by the eurozone sovereign debt crisis), resulting in tax takes below forecasts and more cuts.

    Mr. 2013, ha, I feel the need to correct a common (nigh on universal!) misconception: I am a rightwinger, but not a Conservative. I'll be voting UKIP at the euros. Has to be Conservative at the General Election because Balls is my MP and the only realistic alternative is the Conservative candidate.

    Anyway, now that's out of the way: I concur with your contempt for the dreadfully guilty feeling, politically correct, warmist sorts. I think Cameron has some decent ideas but his greenery, weakness on the EU and frittering away of money on aid are not my cup of tea. And Defence should've been ringfenced, not Health.

    ...don't lots of smokers relapse? I've never been one (habitually, I tried a few at the apex of juvenile rebellion to see what it was like).

    I stand corrected!

    Some relapse usually in a moment of weakness. I once gave up for a non-smoking woman. We broke up, I started again and so did she!. The second time I gave up was four/ five years ago and I haven't looked back. My history with the Tories is similar. I gave up on them in the 90's only to be tempted back in 2004 but now not a chance.

    Thats the thing I think many of those who are deserting the Tories are not people who would do so lightly. They are serious about giving them up.
    "I stand corrected!"

    Are you wearing orthopaedic shoes?
    Now now this is a family blog. You can't go asking people what they are wearing!

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Ninoinoz said:
    I know - but are muslims going to vote UKIP?

    The issue came up in terms of UKIP (/Con) strategy.

    Following a social conservative platform in order to attract Muslims is not going to be a successful strategy for UKIP (or Con). Because the overwhelming majority of Muslims are never going to vote UKIP (or Con).

    For the record muslims only comprise 5% to 6% of the adult population (though 9% of babies).
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    UKIP's W&SE candidate in 2010.
    He's a researcher for Nuttall...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rxro6KPcOuw&list=PLA8B0C58B0254D713&index=12
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    RodCrosby said:

    .
    All in all an ideal seat for UKIP who would be well advised to put up a Christian, anti abortion, anti gay marriage candidate. If they could do a Newbury anywhere this is the place.

    His name is Paul Nuttall....
    According to Paul Nuttals Wikipedia page: " A Roman Catholic, Nuttall opposes abortion and is a member of the Society for the Protection of Unborn Children (SPUC) and has spoken at a number of their events. He is also well known for his stances regarding crime and anti-social behaviour. He has called for tougher prison sentences for persistent re-offenders, drug dealers and violent criminals and for an increase in prison capacity in his region. Controversially, he signed the e-petition which calls for the reintroduction of the death penalty for child and serial killers."

    While Paul Nuttall is a committed Unionist, he has called for the introduction of an English Parliament and presented the new UKIP devolution policy at the annual conference at Eastbourne in September 2011. He is a climate change sceptic. Nuttall is opposed to the construction of wind farms and believes in order to maintain energy security and reduce fuel poverty, nuclear power is the only long term alternative to traditional carbon forms of fuel. He favours banning burqas in public places, citing the use of CCTV and security as his primary reason to take this stance.

    He is highly involved in the UKIP Save The Pub campaign which highlights the issues surrounded the increase in pub closures in England. As part of this, he is strongly opposed to a blanket smoking ban enforced on all pubs and believes that individual landlords should choose whether to make the pub smoke free or not"
    Does anybody know the proportion of Roman Catholics and evangelicals in the constituency?

    The North West of England is the Catholic heartland of England and Paul Goggins (RIP) was a Roman Catholic.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Ninoinoz said:

    RodCrosby said:

    .
    All in all an ideal seat for UKIP who would be well advised to put up a Christian, anti abortion, anti gay marriage candidate. If they could do a Newbury anywhere this is the place.

    His name is Paul Nuttall....
    According to Paul Nuttals Wikipedia page: " A Roman Catholic, Nuttall opposes abortion and is a member of the Society for the Protection of Unborn Children (SPUC) and has spoken at a number of their events. He is also well known for his stances regarding crime and anti-social behaviour. He has called for tougher prison sentences for persistent re-offenders, drug dealers and violent criminals and for an increase in prison capacity in his region. Controversially, he signed the e-petition which calls for the reintroduction of the death penalty for child and serial killers."

    While Paul Nuttall is a committed Unionist, he has called for the introduction of an English Parliament and presented the new UKIP devolution policy at the annual conference at Eastbourne in September 2011. He is a climate change sceptic. Nuttall is opposed to the construction of wind farms and believes in order to maintain energy security and reduce fuel poverty, nuclear power is the only long term alternative to traditional carbon forms of fuel. He favours banning burqas in public places, citing the use of CCTV and security as his primary reason to take this stance.

    He is highly involved in the UKIP Save The Pub campaign which highlights the issues surrounded the increase in pub closures in England. As part of this, he is strongly opposed to a blanket smoking ban enforced on all pubs and believes that individual landlords should choose whether to make the pub smoke free or not"
    Does anybody know the proportion of Roman Catholics and evangelicals in the constituency?

    The North West of England is the Catholic heartland of England and Paul Goggins (RIP) was a Roman Catholic.
    I find it difficult to believe the Christian vote in the UK will switch to UKIP in a major way. You cite evangelical and pentecostal churches, for example, won't these depend on immigration as a source of strength? Unease about anti-immigration sentiment will probably negate any anti-gay marriage boost you would get.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    isam said:

    MikeK said:

    TSE. The man most scared, frightened, terrified and perplexed by the rise of UKIP.

    Do you look under the bed and search the cupboards, to see if there are any kippers lurking there, TSE?

    Ah you think I view kippers in the same way Kippers view any immigrant to this country, particularly non Christian ones.

    The main thing that perplexes me about UKIP is this.

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Perhaps you could explain that to me?
    I think you are being harsh with your generalisation of how kippers think about immigrants.

    But UKIP aren't as libertarian as they say that seems to be quite true

    It depends on to what extent one thinks gay marriage affects people who aren't involved in a gay marriage I suppose
    The first part of my post, was my terrible attempt to troll MikeK's terrible trolling in his original post.
    Not with you there TSE. I wasn't trolling when i said the you are terrified of UKIP success.
    All your posts, concerning UKIP, for at least 4 months, have shown how you try to downplay and denigrate any UKIP advance, wether in the polls or in actual by election votes.

    You either try laughing it off as of no matter or, when that fails you pour scorn on kippers and say it won't last; cant last, will not last. Rising to a bit of hysteria, at times.

    Calm down TSE. Relax. Take a couple of powders: don't let UKIP success go to your head.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2014
    Ninoinoz said:


    Does anybody know the proportion of Roman Catholics and evangelicals in the constituency?

    The North West of England is the Catholic heartland of England and Paul Goggins (RIP) was a Roman Catholic.

    Dunno, but there are five Catholic parish churches in Wythenshawe alone...

    and seven Catholic schools.
  • YouGov - Sunday Times

    Is I think,

    Lab 40

    Con 33

    UKIP 14

    LD 8 or 9
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MikeL said:

    Ninoinoz said:
    I know - but are muslims going to vote UKIP?

    The issue came up in terms of UKIP (/Con) strategy.

    Following a social conservative platform in order to attract Muslims is not going to be a successful strategy for UKIP (or Con). Because the overwhelming majority of Muslims are never going to vote UKIP (or Con).

    For the record muslims only comprise 5% to 6% of the adult population (though 9% of babies).
    Should Muslims from an Asian background have any reason not to vote UKIP?
  • MikeK said:

    isam said:

    MikeK said:

    TSE. The man most scared, frightened, terrified and perplexed by the rise of UKIP.

    Do you look under the bed and search the cupboards, to see if there are any kippers lurking there, TSE?

    Ah you think I view kippers in the same way Kippers view any immigrant to this country, particularly non Christian ones.

    The main thing that perplexes me about UKIP is this.

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Perhaps you could explain that to me?
    I think you are being harsh with your generalisation of how kippers think about immigrants.

    But UKIP aren't as libertarian as they say that seems to be quite true

    It depends on to what extent one thinks gay marriage affects people who aren't involved in a gay marriage I suppose
    The first part of my post, was my terrible attempt to troll MikeK's terrible trolling in his original post.
    Not with you there TSE. I wasn't trolling when i said the you are terrified of UKIP success.
    All your posts, concerning UKIP, for at least 4 months, have shown how you try to downplay and denigrate any UKIP advance, wether in the polls or in actual by election votes.

    You either try laughing it off as of no matter or, when that fails you pour scorn on kippers and say it won't last; cant last, will not last. Rising to a bit of hysteria, at times.

    Calm down TSE. Relax. Take a couple of powders: don't let UKIP success go to your head.
    What are you on about? Hysteria?

    I've been expectant that UKIP will comfortably outpoll the Tories in the Euros.

    So your post falls down on epistemological grounds.
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Here's Chris Cassidy - the 23 year old 2010 WSE Ukip candidate - tweeting a moment ago:

    Christopher Cassidy ‏@CllrCassidy 2m
    Over the years, UKIP have become the official opposition in a number of wards in Wythenshawe. It's time for us to really make a mark now.

    Wonder if they'll let him run again. Think his age might work in his favour - new broom. Went to the local school in Sale too.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited January 2014
    Ninoinoz said:


    Does anybody know the proportion of Roman Catholics and evangelicals in the constituency?

    The North West of England is the Catholic heartland of England and Paul Goggins (RIP) was a Roman Catholic.

    According to UK Polling Report the 2011 censurs reported that the consituency is

    63.2% Christian
    3.1% muslim.
    32% other N/A

    I would guess that the Catholic element is up to 30% of that 63.2%.

    It also reports that 54% of homes are owner occupied.

    Ethnic: 87.4% white (down from 94.9% white in 2001) , 5.6% asian (1.5% in 2001) 3.3% mixed race (1.8% in 2001), 2.8% Black (1% in 2001), 1.2% other (0.7% in 2001).

    Seems a bit like a sort of north west Basildon in some respects to me.



  • Huzzah, the Crystal Methodist is back!

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 43s

    Mail on Sunday front page – “Crystal Methodist: I’m back on ketamine” #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers

    pic.twitter.com/kjzsw57YeH
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Freggles said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    RodCrosby said:

    .
    All in all an ideal seat for UKIP who would be well advised to put up a Christian, anti abortion, anti gay marriage candidate. If they could do a Newbury anywhere this is the place.

    His name is Paul Nuttall....
    According to Paul Nuttals Wikipedia page: " A Roman Catholic, Nuttall opposes abortion and is a member of the Society for the Protection of Unborn Children (SPUC) and has spoken at a number of their events. He is also well known for his stances regarding crime and anti-social behaviour. He has called for tougher prison sentences for persistent re-offenders, drug dealers and violent criminals and for an increase in prison capacity in his region. Controversially, he signed the e-petition which calls for the reintroduction of the death penalty for child and serial killers."

    While Paul Nuttall is a committed Unionist, he has called for the introduction of an English Parliament and presented the new UKIP devolution policy at the annual conference at Eastbourne in September 2011. He is a climate change sceptic. Nuttall is opposed to the construction of wind farms and believes in order to maintain energy security and reduce fuel poverty, nuclear power is the only long term alternative to traditional carbon forms of fuel. He favours banning burqas in public places, citing the use of CCTV and security as his primary reason to take this stance.

    He is highly involved in the UKIP Save The Pub campaign which highlights the issues surrounded the increase in pub closures in England. As part of this, he is strongly opposed to a blanket smoking ban enforced on all pubs and believes that individual landlords should choose whether to make the pub smoke free or not"
    Does anybody know the proportion of Roman Catholics and evangelicals in the constituency?

    The North West of England is the Catholic heartland of England and Paul Goggins (RIP) was a Roman Catholic.
    I find it difficult to believe the Christian vote in the UK will switch to UKIP in a major way. You cite evangelical and pentecostal churches, for example, won't these depend on immigration as a source of strength? Unease about anti-immigration sentiment will probably negate any anti-gay marriage boost you would get.
    You don't know many Poles, do you?
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    RodCrosby said:
    Thanks for that, I'll read it in the paper copy I'll pick up in church tomorrow.

    It appears my hunch was correct - there is an extensive Catholic population in Wythenshawe.

    Also I note a potential UKIP candidate is called Cassidy.

    Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure the Labour Party will pick a Catholic and local candidate, who'll probably come out against abortion and gay marriage. The Labour Party is much less stupid than the Tories.

    If there are any Ukippers reading this - make the restoration of Catholic adoption agencies a big part of your platform. Tapping into that resentment will hurt Labour and Cameron.
  • MikeK said:

    isam said:

    MikeK said:

    TSE. The man most scared, frightened, terrified and perplexed by the rise of UKIP.

    Do you look under the bed and search the cupboards, to see if there are any kippers lurking there, TSE?

    Ah you think I view kippers in the same way Kippers view any immigrant to this country, particularly non Christian ones.

    The main thing that perplexes me about UKIP is this.

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Perhaps you could explain that to me?
    I think you are being harsh with your generalisation of how kippers think about immigrants.

    But UKIP aren't as libertarian as they say that seems to be quite true

    It depends on to what extent one thinks gay marriage affects people who aren't involved in a gay marriage I suppose
    The first part of my post, was my terrible attempt to troll MikeK's terrible trolling in his original post.
    Not with you there TSE. I wasn't trolling when i said the you are terrified of UKIP success.
    All your posts, concerning UKIP, for at least 4 months, have shown how you try to downplay and denigrate any UKIP advance, wether in the polls or in actual by election votes.

    You either try laughing it off as of no matter or, when that fails you pour scorn on kippers and say it won't last; cant last, will not last. Rising to a bit of hysteria, at times.

    Calm down TSE. Relax. Take a couple of powders: don't let UKIP success go to your head.
    What are you on about? Hysteria?

    I've been expectant that UKIP will comfortably outpoll the Tories in the Euros.

    So your post falls down on epistemological grounds.
    Your comment at 8:00 does come across as rather overwrought.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Interestingly, Goggins' long-serving predecessor in parliament, Alf Morris, was also a Catholic.

    Wythenshawe has had a Catholic MP for 50 years...
    http://archive.thetablet.co.uk/article/25th-august-2012/31/obituary
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited January 2014

    MikeK said:

    isam said:

    MikeK said:

    TSE. The man most scared, frightened, terrified and perplexed by the rise of UKIP.

    Do you look under the bed and search the cupboards, to see if there are any kippers lurking there, TSE?

    Ah you think I view kippers in the same way Kippers view any immigrant to this country, particularly non Christian ones.

    The main thing that perplexes me about UKIP is this.

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Perhaps you could explain that to me?
    I think you are being harsh with your generalisation of how kippers think about immigrants.

    But UKIP aren't as libertarian as they say that seems to be quite true

    It depends on to what extent one thinks gay marriage affects people who aren't involved in a gay marriage I suppose
    The first part of my post, was my terrible attempt to troll MikeK's terrible trolling in his original post.
    Not with you there TSE. I wasn't trolling when i said the you are terrified of UKIP success.
    All your posts, concerning UKIP, for at least 4 months, have shown how you try to downplay and denigrate any UKIP advance, wether in the polls or in actual by election votes.

    You either try laughing it off as of no matter or, when that fails you pour scorn on kippers and say it won't last; cant last, will not last. Rising to a bit of hysteria, at times.

    Calm down TSE. Relax. Take a couple of powders: don't let UKIP success go to your head.
    What are you on about? Hysteria?

    I've been expectant that UKIP will comfortably outpoll the Tories in the Euros.

    So your post falls down on epistemological grounds.
    Your comment at 8:00 does come across as rather overwrought.
    Look at the context, he was the one accusing me of looking for Kippers under the bed.

    I merely replied in kind.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The correct definition of UKIP is as an ultra conservative political force. Basically, NO CHANGE from the way it use dto be.

    There are other words to describe such tendencies.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    surbiton said:

    The correct definition of UKIP is as an ultra conservative political force. Basically, NO CHANGE from the way it use dto be.

    There are other words to describe such tendencies.

    How does escaping from the EU count as No Change?

  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    RodCrosby said:

    Interestingly, Goggins' long-serving predecessor in parliament, Alf Morris, was also a Catholic.

    Wythenshawe has had a Catholic MP for 50 years...
    http://archive.thetablet.co.uk/article/25th-august-2012/31/obituary

    Well, there has been a lot of anti-Catholic bile since 2006.

    Ukippers would do well to pray that the other parties are dopey enough to select a candidate who has given some hostages to fortune over the past few years. I doubt Labour would, but it's all too believable by Cameron's Tories.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,790
    edited January 2014



    Your comment at 8:00 does come across as rather overwrought.

    Look at the context, he was the one accusing me of looking for Kippers under the bed.

    I merely replied in kind.
    And turned up the volume several notches.

    Its easy to get into stupid arguments here and perhaps regret it later.





  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited January 2014
    @Another_Richard

    I acknowledged it was a terrible bit of trolling as soon as I posted it.

    But I notice that MikeK ignored the substantive point of my discussion, and only iSam has acknowledged the substantive point of my comment.

    Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Perhaps you could explain that to me?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Ninoinoz said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Interestingly, Goggins' long-serving predecessor in parliament, Alf Morris, was also a Catholic.

    Wythenshawe has had a Catholic MP for 50 years...
    http://archive.thetablet.co.uk/article/25th-august-2012/31/obituary

    Well, there has been a lot of anti-Catholic bile since 2006.

    Ukippers would do well to pray that the other parties are dopey enough to select a candidate who has given some hostages to fortune over the past few years. I doubt Labour would, but it's all too believable by Cameron's Tories.
    There is a residue of old-fashioned anti-Catholicism. And, a newer element that sees Catholics as standing in the way of the polysexual Utopia. Hopefully, we'll get a fervent Cameroon standing for the Tories.
  • Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Very simple. A libertarian might well take the position that the state should get out of the marriage business altogether, and should allow the legal status of couples to be regulated by contract rather than family law.
  • Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Very simple. A libertarian might well take the position that the state should get out of the marriage business altogether, and should allow the legal status of couples to be regulated by contract rather than family law.
    That is a policy I can see myself supporting, but right now, that's not the policy of UKIP, the current UKIP policy discriminates against gay couples.

    Not very Libertarian is it.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Great news for Cast Iron Cameron.
    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 50m

    Sunday Telegraph front page - "Exclusive: 95 Tory MPs call for EU law veto" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/0HlO8nt25h
    Just think of all the flounces we would see. Comedy Gold.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    @Another_Richard

    I acknowledged it was a terrible bit of trolling as soon as I posted it.

    But I notice that MikeK ignored the substantive point of my discussion, and only iSam has acknowledged the substantive point of my comment.

    Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Perhaps you could explain that to me?

    I don't speak for the Party. I speak for myself. I see UKIP as a moderately socially conservative party. As such, I think it's entirely logical that they should wish to retain gender as part of marriage.

  • The front page of the Sunday Express is well, erm,
  • That is a policy I can see myself supporting, but right now, that's not the policy of UKIP, the current UKIP policy discriminates against gay couples.

    Not very Libertarian is it.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think it's UKIP policy to repeal the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act 2013.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited January 2014



    Your comment at 8:00 does come across as rather overwrought.

    Look at the context, he was the one accusing me of looking for Kippers under the bed.

    I merely replied in kind.
    And turned up the volume several notches.

    Its easy to get into stupid arguments here and perhaps regret it later.



    Someone turning up the volume? My, my.

    Don't forget where to look before you go to bed TSE..............................

  • Sean_F said:

    @Another_Richard

    I acknowledged it was a terrible bit of trolling as soon as I posted it.

    But I notice that MikeK ignored the substantive point of my discussion, and only iSam has acknowledged the substantive point of my comment.

    Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Perhaps you could explain that to me?

    I don't speak for the Party. I speak for myself. I see UKIP as a moderately socially conservative party. As such, I think it's entirely logical that they should wish to retain gender as part of marriage.

    Thanks, I can understand your viewpoint, without agreeing to it.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited January 2014

    YouGov - Sunday Times

    Is I think,

    Lab 40
    Con 33
    UKIP 14
    LD 8 or 9

    Post on UKPR says 40/31. Can you confirm?
  • That is a policy I can see myself supporting, but right now, that's not the policy of UKIP, the current UKIP policy discriminates against gay couples.

    Not very Libertarian is it.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think it's UKIP policy to repeal the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Act 2013.
    I did think they would try and amend it to make it very difficult for gay people to get married.
  • MikeL said:

    YouGov - Sunday Times

    Is I think,

    Lab 40
    Con 33
    UKIP 14
    LD 8 or 9

    Post on UKPR says 40/31. Can you confirm?
    I can confirm my figures are correct, bar the LDs which is unclear at the moment.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015 55s
    Wythenshawe & Sale East By-Election Odds for finishing 2nd

    #UKIP was 4/5 now 4/6
    #TORIES 5/4 now 6/4
    #LABOUR 12/1 now 10/1
    #LIBDEMS 33/1

    There's going to be a crossover. Just not the one the Tories were hoping for, or expecting.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    GeoffM said:

    surbiton said:

    The correct definition of UKIP is as an ultra conservative political force. Basically, NO CHANGE from the way it use dto be.

    There are other words to describe such tendencies.

    How does escaping from the EU count as No Change?

    NO CHANGE stands for no change from England as it used to be. Say, before the war. Culturally and socially, whatever they say.
  • Interesting stuff. Electricity prices across Europe dropped last month as mild temperatures, strong winds and stormy weather produced wind power records in Germany, France and the UK.
    http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/news/international-news/124090-record-wind-power-levels-trigger-energy-price-fall.html
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Why is Labour hitting the 40's again ? Surely, it is crossover time. Do the people not know that ?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    KRT-SaysItLikeItIs ‏@KRTshopaholic 4m

    Good god. “@suttonnick: Sunday Express front page - Female MP abused boy in care #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/IS0XmmbnuQ”
    I'd be astounded if Desmond actually gave any names.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568

    MikeL said:

    YouGov - Sunday Times

    Is I think,

    Lab 40
    Con 33
    UKIP 14
    LD 8 or 9

    Post on UKPR says 40/31. Can you confirm?
    I can confirm my figures are correct, bar the LDs which is unclear at the moment.
    Ashcroft and Mike both tweeting 40/31. A misprint or a misunderstanding? Only MOE difference, of course, though 9 points would be at the upper end of recent polls.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited January 2014

    MikeL said:

    YouGov - Sunday Times

    Is I think,

    Lab 40
    Con 33
    UKIP 14
    LD 8 or 9

    Post on UKPR says 40/31. Can you confirm?
    I can confirm my figures are correct, bar the LDs which is unclear at the moment.
    Ashcroft and Mike both tweeting 40/31. A misprint or a misunderstanding? Only MOE difference, of course, though 9 points would be at the upper end of recent polls.

    Mike and Lord Ashcroft are wrong*

    I'm going from the front page of the Sunday Times

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/422118237371760640

    *Well that's something I never thought I'd write.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Interesting stuff. Electricity prices across Europe dropped last month as mild temperatures, strong winds and stormy weather produced wind power records in Germany, France and the UK.
    http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/news/international-news/124090-record-wind-power-levels-trigger-energy-price-fall.html


    I look forward to my electricity bill reflecting these changes, though I expect Hell will freeze over first.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    surbiton said:

    GeoffM said:

    surbiton said:

    The correct definition of UKIP is as an ultra conservative political force. Basically, NO CHANGE from the way it use dto be.

    There are other words to describe such tendencies.

    How does escaping from the EU count as No Change?

    NO CHANGE stands for no change from England as it used to be. Say, before the war. Culturally and socially, whatever they say.
    Ah, good. I like the sound of that.

  • @Another_Richard

    I acknowledged it was a terrible bit of trolling as soon as I posted it.

    But I notice that MikeK ignored the substantive point of my discussion, and only iSam has acknowledged the substantive point of my comment.

    Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Perhaps you could explain that to me?

    Do UKIP officially claim to be a libertarian party and does Farage claim to be one ?

    To me libertariansim is supporting the right to do things you don't like and wish other people wouldn't do. By that definition none of the parties are libertarian.

    On the particular gay marriage issue are you saying that anyone who supported the law up until the change is be definition not a libertarian ?

    In any case the political parties aren't short of people who profess one thing but belong to parties with different views.

    As I remember you once said that supporting military personnel was one of your red lines when it came to politcal support. Can we take it that you've cut your links with the Conservative party in that case ?
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    From the Times fp

    Lab-40,UKIP-14,Others-6 which leaves 40.

    So it`s likely Con-31,Libs-9.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Interesting stuff. Electricity prices across Europe dropped last month as mild temperatures, strong winds and stormy weather produced wind power records in Germany, France and the UK.
    http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/news/international-news/124090-record-wind-power-levels-trigger-energy-price-fall.html


    New record also in Ireland.


    http://cleantechnica.com/2013/12/20/germany-ireland-uk-set-new-wind-generation-records/

  • Mick_Pork said:

    I'd be astounded if Desmond actually gave any names.

    As McAlpine of West Green demonstrated, you don't have to name names to expose yourself to liability in defamation.
  • Ninoinoz said:

    RodCrosby said:

    .
    All in all an ideal seat for UKIP who would be well advised to put up a Christian, anti abortion, anti gay marriage candidate. If they could do a Newbury anywhere this is the place.

    His name is Paul Nuttall....
    According to Paul Nuttals Wikipedia page: " A Roman Catholic, Nuttall opposes abortion and is a member of the Society for the Protection of Unborn Children (SPUC) and has spoken at a number of their events. He is also well known for his stances regarding crime and anti-social behaviour. He has called for tougher prison sentences for persistent re-offenders, drug dealers and violent criminals and for an increase in prison capacity in his region. Controversially, he signed the e-petition which calls for the reintroduction of the death penalty for child and serial killers."

    While Paul Nuttall is a committed Unionist, he has called for the introduction of an English Parliament and presented the new UKIP devolution policy at the annual conference at Eastbourne in September 2011. He is a climate change sceptic. Nuttall is opposed to the construction of wind farms and believes in order to maintain energy security and reduce fuel poverty, nuclear power is the only long term alternative to traditional carbon forms of fuel. He favours banning burqas in public places, citing the use of CCTV and security as his primary reason to take this stance.

    He is highly involved in the UKIP Save The Pub campaign which highlights the issues surrounded the increase in pub closures in England. As part of this, he is strongly opposed to a blanket smoking ban enforced on all pubs and believes that individual landlords should choose whether to make the pub smoke free or not"
    Does anybody know the proportion of Roman Catholics and evangelicals in the constituency?

    The North West of England is the Catholic heartland of England and Paul Goggins (RIP) was a Roman Catholic.
    The Census in England at least doesn't split Christians by denomination. I presume it's the same in Scotland and Wales. The one part of the UK where Census data is available for Catholics v. Protestant "and other Christian denominations" is Northern Ireland.
  • @Another_Richard

    I acknowledged it was a terrible bit of trolling as soon as I posted it.

    But I notice that MikeK ignored the substantive point of my discussion, and only iSam has acknowledged the substantive point of my comment.

    Perhaps you might offer your thoughts on

    How does a party that says it is a Libertarian party, and is led by a man who calls himself a Libertarian can possibly deny loving couples the right to marry?

    Perhaps you could explain that to me?

    Do UKIP officially claim to be a libertarian party and does Farage claim to be one ?

    To me libertariansim is supporting the right to do things you don't like and wish other people wouldn't do. By that definition none of the parties are libertarian.

    On the particular gay marriage issue are you saying that anyone who supported the law up until the change is be definition not a libertarian ?

    In any case the political parties aren't short of people who profess one thing but belong to parties with different views.

    As I remember you once said that supporting military personnel was one of your red lines when it came to politcal support. Can we take it that you've cut your links with the Conservative party in that case ?
    The UK Independence Party's position on this issue may be stated simply: while UKIP fully supports the concept of civil partnerships, it opposes the move to legislate for same-sex marriage.

    As a democratic libertarian Party, we believe that The State should play only a minimal role in the lives of the people of the United Kingdom; more particularly, given the scope of this consultation, in the lives of the people of England and Wales. As such we support the concept of civil partnerships.

    http://www.ukip.org/issues/policy-pages/same-sex-marriage

    On the military, I was quite annoyed at Dave and didn't renew my party membership in 2011, until a few on here, and one of my friends in the military pointed out I was being overly harsh on Dave, in his words, Labour left the coalition an even worse legacy on the military than it did on the economy. As evidenced by Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    MikeL said:

    YouGov - Sunday Times

    Is I think,

    Lab 40
    Con 33
    UKIP 14
    LD 8 or 9

    Post on UKPR says 40/31. Can you confirm?
    I can confirm my figures are correct, bar the LDs which is unclear at the moment.
    Ashcroft and Mike both tweeting 40/31. A misprint or a misunderstanding? Only MOE difference, of course, though 9 points would be at the upper end of recent polls.

    Mike and Lord Ashcroft are wrong*

    I'm going from the front page of the Sunday Times

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/422118237371760640

    *Well that's something I never thought I'd write.
    The info box there says 40/31/14/9

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BduqTNuCQAAiFUr.jpg:large
This discussion has been closed.