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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wythenshawe and Sale E could be a dry run for Toby Young’s

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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    MikeL said:

    YouGov - Sunday Times

    Is I think,

    Lab 40
    Con 33
    UKIP 14
    LD 8 or 9

    Post on UKPR says 40/31. Can you confirm?
    I can confirm my figures are correct, bar the LDs which is unclear at the moment.
    Ashcroft and Mike both tweeting 40/31. A misprint or a misunderstanding? Only MOE difference, of course, though 9 points would be at the upper end of recent polls.

    Mike and Lord Ashcroft are wrong*

    I'm going from the front page of the Sunday Times

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/422118237371760640

    *Well that's something I never thought I'd write.
    The info box there says 40/31/14/9

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BduqTNuCQAAiFUr.jpg:large
    Specsavers ?
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    surbiton said:

    MikeL said:

    YouGov - Sunday Times

    Is I think,

    Lab 40
    Con 33
    UKIP 14
    LD 8 or 9

    Post on UKPR says 40/31. Can you confirm?
    I can confirm my figures are correct, bar the LDs which is unclear at the moment.
    Ashcroft and Mike both tweeting 40/31. A misprint or a misunderstanding? Only MOE difference, of course, though 9 points would be at the upper end of recent polls.

    Mike and Lord Ashcroft are wrong*

    I'm going from the front page of the Sunday Times

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/422118237371760640

    *Well that's something I never thought I'd write.
    The info box there says 40/31/14/9

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BduqTNuCQAAiFUr.jpg:large
    Specsavers ?
    Just keep enlarging the picture.

  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014

    Mick_Pork said:

    I'd be astounded if Desmond actually gave any names.

    As McAlpine of West Green demonstrated, you don't have to name names to expose yourself to liability in defamation.
    Indeed not but I can't believe even Desmond would leave a less than subtle trail of breadcrumbs that would expose him to that. Hard to believe it may be at times but the Express does have a team of in house lawyers to give stories like that the once over at least.
    I could be wrong though and the tabloids do love to skate of the thinnest of ice at times.
  • Options
    MEA CULPA

    The Sunday Times have put their piece

    It is

    Con 31

    Lab 40

    UKIP 14

    LD 9
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    MEA CULPA

    "Apology accepted, Captain Needa!"
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    From the Sunday Times/YouGov

    76% backing both a £26,000 cap on a household’s benefits and a two-year ban on benefits for migrants.

    IDS wants a two year ban on EU migrants from claiming benefits.
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    The Sunday Times says Steve Hilton isn't returning to Downing Street or playing any role in the election campaign.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071
    I can't see Libertarianism being the thing for Ukip now. Someone I've recently got to know and I consider a very ordinary person was asked who he'd vote for and said he wasn't keen on any of them 'but I might vote Ukip'. He's currently unemployed and used to doing semi-skilled fairly low pay work. The impression I got was someone sick of the current elite looking for a protest vote. However I can see why and anti-immigration party would appeal to such a person when benefits are being squeezed and new arrivals are entitled to much of the welfare state.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    From the Sunday Times/YouGov

    76% backing both a £26,000 cap on a household’s benefits and a two-year ban on benefits for migrants.

    IDS wants a two year ban on EU migrants from claiming benefits.

    I see from that front page that we apparently have an Obesity Tsar.
    Abolishing that job and adding her to the ranks of the unemployed is an obvious cash saving we can make from Monday morning.

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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @TSE

    " Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review."

    Labour did conduct a strategic defence review. It was in 1998 and set out a strategy and what need to provided to meet it. They just ignored it thereafter.

    The current government however did not conduct a strategic defence review. They merely implemented a Treasury driven set of defence cuts and called it a Strategic Defence Review. So pleased were they by the exercise they intend to do it again in 2015 and again in 2020.

    Given the length of time it takes to procure kit thee days the idea that one can change strategy every five years is a nonsense. Strategic Defence Reviews are now just way of dressing up cuts in defence spending.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    What! And I'd just put £500,000 on imminent crossover because I thought the lead was only 7?
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    @TSE

    " Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review."

    Labour did conduct a strategic defence review. It was in 1998 and set out a strategy and what need to provided to meet it. They just ignored it thereafter.

    The current government however did not conduct a strategic defence review. They merely implemented a Treasury driven set of defence cuts and called it a Strategic Defence Review. So pleased were they by the exercise they intend to do it again in 2015 and again in 2020.

    Given the length of time it takes to procure kit thee days the idea that one can change strategy every five years is a nonsense. Strategic Defence Reviews are now just way of dressing up cuts in defence spending.

    The bit that got his goat was Labour's failure to hold one whilst we were fighting concurrently in two major wars, concurrently.
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    On the military, I was quite annoyed at Dave and didn't renew my party membership in 2011, until a few on here, and one of my friends in the military pointed out I was being overly harsh on Dave, in his words, Labour left the coalition an even worse legacy on the military than it did on the economy. As evidenced by Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review.

    So I take it you did renew your Conservative membership.

    All that proclaimed demand for military personnel to be well treated turned out to be faux.

    That Labour left the defence budget in a mess is undeniable, that this government is no better, perhaps even worse, is also undeniable.

    And did you tear up your Conservative membership card when Cameron wanted to join the Al Qaeda side in Syria ?



  • Options

    What! And I'd just put £500,000 on imminent crossover because I thought the lead was only 7?

    I'm sorry, I shall exile myself to conhome for the next month.
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    One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 38m

    Sunday Herald front page - "Cameron's plea to Putin: Help me stop Salmond"

    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indyref

    pic.twitter.com/P6dg7owKZ7
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @FrankBooth

    "... I can see why and anti-immigration party would appeal to such a person when benefits are being squeezed and new arrivals are entitled to much of the welfare state."

    And what arguments would you deploy to show him the error of his thinking?
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014

    I can't see Libertarianism being the thing for Ukip now.

    It never really was. The clue was in the name and they hardly made a secret of wanting out of the EU. As you say immigration is front and centre for them now and they will have no difficulty at all in out posturing Cameron on that or the EU. Nor will the tories be to keen using gay marriage much at the GE considering Cameron couldn't take his own party with him. (and he was a comparatively recent convert too lest we forget with his opposition to section 28)
    Blow for Cameron as 128 Tory MPs vote against gay marriage

    Tory opponents of the bill outnumber supporters as just 117 Conservative MPs vote in favour.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/blow-cameron-128-tory-mps-vote-against-gay-marriage
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    On the military, I was quite annoyed at Dave and didn't renew my party membership in 2011, until a few on here, and one of my friends in the military pointed out I was being overly harsh on Dave, in his words, Labour left the coalition an even worse legacy on the military than it did on the economy. As evidenced by Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review.

    So I take it you did renew your Conservative membership.

    All that proclaimed demand for military personnel to be well treated turned out to be faux.

    That Labour left the defence budget in a mess is undeniable, that this government is no better, perhaps even worse, is also undeniable.

    And did you tear up your Conservative membership card when Cameron wanted to join the Al Qaeda side in Syria ?



    No, I was one PB's foremost warmongers.
  • Options
    GeoffM said:

    From the Sunday Times/YouGov

    76% backing both a £26,000 cap on a household’s benefits and a two-year ban on benefits for migrants.

    IDS wants a two year ban on EU migrants from claiming benefits.

    I see from that front page that we apparently have an Obesity Tsar.
    Abolishing that job and adding her to the ranks of the unemployed is an obvious cash saving we can make from Monday morning.

    She wants to tax sugary fruit juices.
  • Options


    The UK Independence Party's position on this issue may be stated simply: while UKIP fully supports the concept of civil partnerships, it opposes the move to legislate for same-sex marriage.

    As a democratic libertarian Party, we believe that The State should play only a minimal role in the lives of the people of the United Kingdom; more particularly, given the scope of this consultation, in the lives of the people of England and Wales. As such we support the concept of civil partnerships.

    So that looks like UKIP doesn't want governments to pass laws about marriage.

    I think that can be classed as a small government policy, something which is linked to a libertarian philosophy.

    Now if UKIP is saying that they would change the law to ban gay marriage that would indeed be anti-libertarian.

    But I don't think they're saying that - though I don't have much idea, and have less interest, on what UKIP policy on gay marriage is.
  • Options


    The UK Independence Party's position on this issue may be stated simply: while UKIP fully supports the concept of civil partnerships, it opposes the move to legislate for same-sex marriage.

    As a democratic libertarian Party, we believe that The State should play only a minimal role in the lives of the people of the United Kingdom; more particularly, given the scope of this consultation, in the lives of the people of England and Wales. As such we support the concept of civil partnerships.

    So that looks like UKIP doesn't want governments to pass laws about marriage.

    I think that can be classed as a small government policy, something which is linked to a libertarian philosophy.

    Now if UKIP is saying that they would change the law to ban gay marriage that would indeed be anti-libertarian.

    But I don't think they're saying that - though I don't have much idea, and have less interest, on what UKIP policy on gay marriage is.
    No, they want marriage, just for the heteros.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 38m

    Sunday Herald front page - "Cameron's plea to Putin: Help me stop Salmond"

    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indyref

    pic.twitter.com/P6dg7owKZ7

    *tears of laughter etc.*
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @TSE

    "One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?"

    Well moving A Moscow to Sevastopol, would be a starter for 10, and playing F St. Petersburg to Finland rather than GOB ...

    Sorry misunderstood your question, thought you were talking about Diplomacy not diplomacy.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Why are Labour hitting the 40's again ?

    The clue is in the retail sales. At Christmas, most people realised how impoverished they have become in the last 4 years with real reductions in living standards. Spending fell in real terms.
  • Options
    State of the nation poll finds Britain less divided on economy

    Growing numbers of middle class are optimistic about recovery, but the north remains pessimistic

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/11/state-of-nation-poll-britain-economy-recovery
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 38m

    Sunday Herald front page - "Cameron's plea to Putin: Help me stop Salmond"

    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indyref

    pic.twitter.com/P6dg7owKZ7

    What ? Bomb Edinburgh like Grozny ?
  • Options


    On the military, I was quite annoyed at Dave and didn't renew my party membership in 2011, until a few on here, and one of my friends in the military pointed out I was being overly harsh on Dave, in his words, Labour left the coalition an even worse legacy on the military than it did on the economy. As evidenced by Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review.

    So I take it you did renew your Conservative membership.

    All that proclaimed demand for military personnel to be well treated turned out to be faux.

    That Labour left the defence budget in a mess is undeniable, that this government is no better, perhaps even worse, is also undeniable.

    And did you tear up your Conservative membership card when Cameron wanted to join the Al Qaeda side in Syria ?



    No, I was one PB's foremost warmongers.
    As you're entitled to be if you so wish.

    You are the sort of Conservative who, in Avery's description, never misses a chance 'to bomb ragheads'.

    But don't pretend that your membership of the Conservative party is compatible with your proclaimed demand that military personnel be well treated as a political red line.

    Labour's defence policy was an easy stick to beat it with but most of those who did so lost interest in defence problems when it became Conservatives doing the underfunding and mismangement.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    MEA CULPA

    The Sunday Times have put their piece

    It is

    Con 31

    Lab 40

    UKIP 14

    LD 9

    Huge Labour lead !
  • Options


    On the military, I was quite annoyed at Dave and didn't renew my party membership in 2011, until a few on here, and one of my friends in the military pointed out I was being overly harsh on Dave, in his words, Labour left the coalition an even worse legacy on the military than it did on the economy. As evidenced by Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review.

    So I take it you did renew your Conservative membership.

    All that proclaimed demand for military personnel to be well treated turned out to be faux.

    That Labour left the defence budget in a mess is undeniable, that this government is no better, perhaps even worse, is also undeniable.

    And did you tear up your Conservative membership card when Cameron wanted to join the Al Qaeda side in Syria ?



    No, I was one PB's foremost warmongers.
    As you're entitled to be if you so wish.

    You are the sort of Conservative who, in Avery's description, never misses a chance 'to bomb ragheads'.

    But don't pretend that your membership of the Conservative party is compatible with your proclaimed demand that military personnel be well treated as a political red line.

    Labour's defence policy was an easy stick to beat it with but most of those who did so lost interest in defence problems when it became Conservatives doing the underfunding and mismangement.
    I want to bomb ragheads?

    Really? Really? I mean really?

    I'm assuming you've been drinking some falling down juice this evening, because that has to be the silliest thing anyone has ever written about me on PB since Mark Senior said I was a BNP supporter, because I said, I'd find it funny if he did become an MP, he would be captioned on the news as "Nick Griffin, Barking"
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549


    On the military, I was quite annoyed at Dave and didn't renew my party membership in 2011, until a few on here, and one of my friends in the military pointed out I was being overly harsh on Dave, in his words, Labour left the coalition an even worse legacy on the military than it did on the economy. As evidenced by Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review.

    So I take it you did renew your Conservative membership.

    All that proclaimed demand for military personnel to be well treated turned out to be faux.

    That Labour left the defence budget in a mess is undeniable, that this government is no better, perhaps even worse, is also undeniable.

    And did you tear up your Conservative membership card when Cameron wanted to join the Al Qaeda side in Syria ?



    No, I was one PB's foremost warmongers.
    As you're entitled to be if you so wish.

    You are the sort of Conservative who, in Avery's description, never misses a chance 'to bomb ragheads'.

    But don't pretend that your membership of the Conservative party is compatible with your proclaimed demand that military personnel be well treated as a political red line.

    Labour's defence policy was an easy stick to beat it with but most of those who did so lost interest in defence problems when it became Conservatives doing the underfunding and mismangement.
    You mean Fitalass & co. ?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    By invading the Orkneys?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    State of the nation poll finds Britain less divided on economy

    Growing numbers of middle class are optimistic about recovery, but the north remains pessimistic

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/11/state-of-nation-poll-britain-economy-recovery

    "The survey of 2,224 people, conducted between 6 and 11 December, found that 28% want to leave the EU, but this compares with 38% who wish to stay in and try to reduce EU powers."

  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    surbiton said:

    One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 38m

    Sunday Herald front page - "Cameron's plea to Putin: Help me stop Salmond"

    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indyref

    pic.twitter.com/P6dg7owKZ7

    What ? Bomb Edinburgh like Grozny ?
    No doubt it's some kind of Osbrowne 'master strategy' that could never possibly backfire.
  • Options


    On the military, I was quite annoyed at Dave and didn't renew my party membership in 2011, until a few on here, and one of my friends in the military pointed out I was being overly harsh on Dave, in his words, Labour left the coalition an even worse legacy on the military than it did on the economy. As evidenced by Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review.

    So I take it you did renew your Conservative membership.

    All that proclaimed demand for military personnel to be well treated turned out to be faux.

    That Labour left the defence budget in a mess is undeniable, that this government is no better, perhaps even worse, is also undeniable.

    And did you tear up your Conservative membership card when Cameron wanted to join the Al Qaeda side in Syria ?



    No, I was one PB's foremost warmongers.
    As you're entitled to be if you so wish.

    You are the sort of Conservative who, in Avery's description, never misses a chance 'to bomb ragheads'.

    But don't pretend that your membership of the Conservative party is compatible with your proclaimed demand that military personnel be well treated as a political red line.

    Labour's defence policy was an easy stick to beat it with but most of those who did so lost interest in defence problems when it became Conservatives doing the underfunding and mismangement.
    I want to bomb ragheads?

    Really? Really? I mean really?

    I'm assuming you've been drinking some falling down juice this evening, because that has to be the silliest thing anyone has ever written about me on PB since Mark Senior said I was a BNP supporter, because I said, I'd find it funny if he did become an MP, he would be captioned on the news as "Nick Griffin, Barking"
    Avery told us during the Syrian debates that the Conservative party would never pass up the chance 'to bomb ragheads'.

    You are I believe a Conservative member and a self proclaimed 'foremost warmonger'.

    How else should I interpret this information.

  • Options
    Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Or send in the modern day FSB equivalent of SMERSH (yes, it did exist) to use extreme prejudice on Salmond?

    ROFLMSO,

    God help us, Cameron, if this true, is too stupid to remain as PM.

    Loved the front cover of the latest Private Eye though.

    http://www.private-eye.co.uk/current_issue.php?
    surbiton said:

    One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 38m

    Sunday Herald front page - "Cameron's plea to Putin: Help me stop Salmond"

    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indyref

    pic.twitter.com/P6dg7owKZ7

    What ? Bomb Edinburgh like Grozny ?
  • Options


    The UK Independence Party's position on this issue may be stated simply: while UKIP fully supports the concept of civil partnerships, it opposes the move to legislate for same-sex marriage.

    As a democratic libertarian Party, we believe that The State should play only a minimal role in the lives of the people of the United Kingdom; more particularly, given the scope of this consultation, in the lives of the people of England and Wales. As such we support the concept of civil partnerships.

    So that looks like UKIP doesn't want governments to pass laws about marriage.

    I think that can be classed as a small government policy, something which is linked to a libertarian philosophy.

    Now if UKIP is saying that they would change the law to ban gay marriage that would indeed be anti-libertarian.

    But I don't think they're saying that - though I don't have much idea, and have less interest, on what UKIP policy on gay marriage is.
    No, they want marriage, just for the heteros.
    Do UKIP say they would make gay marriage illegal ?

    If they do then they're behaving in an anti-libertarian manner.
    If they don't then they aren't.

    In fact if UKIP are saying that they don't approve of gay marriage but would allow it to remain legal then they are being libertarian.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,298
    SmithersJones - UKIP came second in the Barnsley Central, Middlesborough, Rotherham and South Shields by-elections. In Manchester Central UKIP only polled half its national score in 2010 and in the by-election it almost tripled its percentage of the total vote. I would imagine it has a higher than average ethnic vote and more DEs than C2s, ie not ideal UKIP territory!
  • Options
    Edin_Rokz said:

    Or send in the modern day FSB equivalent of SMERSH (yes, it did exist) to use extreme prejudice on Salmond?

    ROFLMSO,

    God help us, Cameron, if this true, is too stupid to remain as PM.

    Loved the front cover of the latest Private Eye though.

    http://www.private-eye.co.uk/current_issue.php?


    surbiton said:

    One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 38m

    Sunday Herald front page - "Cameron's plea to Putin: Help me stop Salmond"

    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indyref

    pic.twitter.com/P6dg7owKZ7

    What ? Bomb Edinburgh like Grozny ?
    The Hunt for Red October 2014

    Sean Connery will commandeer a submarine from the Clyde and "defect" to England :)
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Edin_Rokz said:

    Or send in the modern day FSB equivalent of SMERSH (yes, it did exist) to use extreme prejudice on Salmond?

    ROFLMSO,

    God help us, Cameron, if this true, is too stupid to remain as PM.

    Loved the front cover of the latest Private Eye though.

    http://www.private-eye.co.uk/current_issue.php?


    surbiton said:

    One for PB's diplomats, I'm not sure what help Putin can offer Dave?

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 38m

    Sunday Herald front page - "Cameron's plea to Putin: Help me stop Salmond"

    #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #indyref

    pic.twitter.com/P6dg7owKZ7

    What ? Bomb Edinburgh like Grozny ?

    It's a Russian News Agency report the Herald are basing this on apparently and we'll see just how much meat is on it, but that front page is a belter and the Herald will fly off the shelves tomorrow.

    The Eye cover was a good one, I saw it tonight and laughed when I bought it.

  • Options


    On the military, I was quite annoyed at Dave and didn't renew my party membership in 2011, until a few on here, and one of my friends in the military pointed out I was being overly harsh on Dave, in his words, Labour left the coalition an even worse legacy on the military than it did on the economy. As evidenced by Labour's failure to hold a strategic defence review.

    So I take it you did renew your Conservative membership.

    All that proclaimed demand for military personnel to be well treated turned out to be faux.

    That Labour left the defence budget in a mess is undeniable, that this government is no better, perhaps even worse, is also undeniable.

    And did you tear up your Conservative membership card when Cameron wanted to join the Al Qaeda side in Syria ?



    No, I was one PB's foremost warmongers.
    As you're entitled to be if you so wish.

    You are the sort of Conservative who, in Avery's description, never misses a chance 'to bomb ragheads'.

    But don't pretend that your membership of the Conservative party is compatible with your proclaimed demand that military personnel be well treated as a political red line.

    Labour's defence policy was an easy stick to beat it with but most of those who did so lost interest in defence problems when it became Conservatives doing the underfunding and mismangement.
    I want to bomb ragheads?

    Really? Really? I mean really?

    I'm assuming you've been drinking some falling down juice this evening, because that has to be the silliest thing anyone has ever written about me on PB since Mark Senior said I was a BNP supporter, because I said, I'd find it funny if he did become an MP, he would be captioned on the news as "Nick Griffin, Barking"
    Avery told us during the Syrian debates that the Conservative party would never pass up the chance 'to bomb ragheads'.

    You are I believe a Conservative member and a self proclaimed 'foremost warmonger'.

    How else should I interpret this information.

    Differently.

    Foremost warmonger is what someone called me in the aftermath of the Syria vote.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,298
    Surbiton That is a 1997 style result, except UKIP are doing rather better than the Referendum Party and only 2% off Ashdown's score!
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    surbiton said:

    State of the nation poll finds Britain less divided on economy

    Growing numbers of middle class are optimistic about recovery, but the north remains pessimistic

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/11/state-of-nation-poll-britain-economy-recovery

    "The survey of 2,224 people, conducted between 6 and 11 December, found that 28% want to leave the EU, but this compares with 38% who wish to stay in and try to reduce EU powers."

    As previously seen, improving assessments of the economy are making no detectable difference to voting intention. If anything, there's a slight negative correlation for the Tories - they seem to fall further behind as people cheer up.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Does anyone have a link to Andy's General Election target spreadsheet - Want it to assess my GE betting position...
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071

    surbiton said:

    State of the nation poll finds Britain less divided on economy

    Growing numbers of middle class are optimistic about recovery, but the north remains pessimistic

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/11/state-of-nation-poll-britain-economy-recovery

    "The survey of 2,224 people, conducted between 6 and 11 December, found that 28% want to leave the EU, but this compares with 38% who wish to stay in and try to reduce EU powers."

    As previously seen, improving assessments of the economy are making no detectable difference to voting intention. If anything, there's a slight negative correlation for the Tories - they seem to fall further behind as people cheer up.
    I'm not sure. We've had three quarters of growth and the polls have closed on a year ago. I wonder whether the Tories have hit a ceiling though. The start of this year does seem to be producing some good polls for Labour again. I'm not sure why though. All I can think of is the opening up of the borders to Romania and Bulgaria, reminding people that Cameron's not the immigration hawk he claimed to be in 2010.
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    I can't see any Indyref polling in here

    ALMOST half of the British people believe that the UK would be weakened in the event of Scottish independence, according to the first poll to illustrate the extent that Scotland is valued by its neighbours.

    The proportion of Britons who think the UK would suffer from a Yes vote far outnumbers those who believe the ­remains of the country would be strengthened by Scotland’s departure.

    An Ipsos Mori opinion poll of 2,244 adults across Britain found that 47 per cent thought the UK would be weaker without Scotland, compared with just 9 per cent who thought the UK would end up stronger.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-uk-would-be-weaker-poll-1-3265051
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    @NickPalmer

    There is a coalition of Generation X and Y that are determined to kick out the government. I don't see why Conservative supporters deny this. It is clear from the data.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071
    The Better Together campaign has been criticised for being leaderless and invisible. Could Putin make a difference here? Ultimately I think Cameron sees himself as an effete public schoolboy who's got no hope against a street fighting bear like Salmond. Time to call in a favour from the ex-KGB man who knows a thing or two about keeping countries together?
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    Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    One of the interesting conundrums is that a majority of the readers of the dead tree media are over 60. And, mostly and with the greatest respect, have very little experience of life outside of the UK. On the other hand, the majority of the under 60 ' s have experienced life out of the UK, on holiday, working or even school trips. What is also amusing, is the thought that people of over 75 have a more internationalist thought patterns after having experienced the second world war through personal or second hand via close relatives.

    The best way to think of the impending (or not, if the HoL's has anything to do with it) referendum, is that once people start to think about it, the Kippers will be well and truly smoked.

    surbiton said:

    State of the nation poll finds Britain less divided on economy

    Growing numbers of middle class are optimistic about recovery, but the north remains pessimistic

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/11/state-of-nation-poll-britain-economy-recovery

    "The survey of 2,224 people, conducted between 6 and 11 December, found that 28% want to leave the EU, but this compares with 38% who wish to stay in and try to reduce EU powers."

    As previously seen, improving assessments of the economy are making no detectable difference to voting intention. If anything, there's a slight negative correlation for the Tories - they seem to fall further behind as people cheer up.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,298
    Edin? I doubt there is much difference in holiday patterns between the over and under 60s in terms of holidays abroad, and most of those living abroad in the likes of Spain are retirees!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2014
    Enjoyed The Bridge tonight: love the atmosphere, even if the story is maybe a bit convoluted. Also it's difficult to imagine so many homicides (relatively speaking) in a place like Denmark or Sweden, so you have to suspend disbelief on that score to a certain extent.

    @Pulpstar

    Labour targets:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE#gid=0

    Conservative targets:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEk1TlVqMHhNUXFBWlhSNU1hd0FYSHc#gid=0

    Liberal Democrat targets:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHJvOXRkdEVLNUhBWG1JQzBVekVjWnc#gid=0

    Combined target list:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHNjRUpXY2ZYamVrVlJPbmRNdzNTd0E&usp=sheets_web
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,298
    Sunil As Sean Connery is an SNP supporter I doubt it.

    Frank Booth Cameron should stay well clear, Darling is doing an effective, if dour, job and referendum campaigns are less influenced by personalities, presently polls have the independence side losing by almost as much as 'Yes to AV' it is Salmond who has to make the running!
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    @NickPalmer

    There is a coalition of Generation X and Y that are determined to kick out the government. I don't see why Conservative supporters deny this. It is clear from the data.

    Yes, that seems to be right. It doesn't usually seem even based on dislike of any particular policies (people don't usually say "I'll vote for you because I'm against policy X") as much as on a deep-seated dislike of the government ("Yes, I'm going to vote to get the Tories out"). That's why it's not much affected by good or bad news.

    I got 130 people to a two and a half hour public meeting peacefully discussing ideas for town planning this evening - one of the largest I've ever organised in low-key Broxtowe. I read about constituencies where people shout at politicians and get furiously angry, and think they must be on different planets.

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    Ed Balls and Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander had to be ‘dragged apart’ when they almost came to blows during a blazing row, it was revealed last night.

    Former Cabinet Minister Tessa Jowell was forced to intervene, saying she feared the Labour rivals were about to get into a ‘fisticuffs’.

    The dust-up happened when the Shadow Chancellor and Mr Alexander clashed in a private room in the Commons over the party’s policy on Europe.


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2537817/Bruiser-Balls-dragged-apart-screaming-Alexander-stop-fists-flying-Tessa-Jowell-stops-Labour-heavyweights-coming-blows-Europe-vote.html
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    @NickPalmer

    There is a coalition of Generation X and Y that are determined to kick out the government. I don't see why Conservative supporters deny this. It is clear from the data.

    Yes, that seems to be right. It doesn't usually seem even based on dislike of any particular policies (people don't usually say "I'll vote for you because I'm against policy X") as much as on a deep-seated dislike of the government ("Yes, I'm going to vote to get the Tories out"). That's why it's not much affected by good or bad news.

    I got 130 people to a two and a half hour public meeting peacefully discussing ideas for town planning this evening - one of the largest I've ever organised in low-key Broxtowe. I read about constituencies where people shout at politicians and get furiously angry, and think they must be on different planets.

    Generation X are a very Labourite group. This is probably because they grew up under Mrs Thatcher and were young in the drug-fuelled lefty utopia decade of the 1990s. It wasn't a very Conservative sort of period. Gen Y are just typical youngsters - vaguely leftish and shallowly rebellious.
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    UKIP's vile Mandela 'slave' rant exposed: Disgusting remarks made about South African president and murdered teenager Stephen Lawrence 'reveal true face of party'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2537834/UKIPs-vile-Mandela-slave-rant-exposed-New-racism-storm-following-remarks-former-South-African-President-murdered-teenager-Stephen-Lawrence.html
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Pulpstar said:

    Does anyone have a link to Andy's General Election target spreadsheet - Want it to assess my GE betting position...

    You might also be interested in the reported 40/40 list.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2013/05/by-mark-wallacefollowmarkon-twitter-in-october-cchq-announced-that-it-was-launching-a-4040-strategy-aimed-at-winning-the.html


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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161

    @NickPalmer

    There is a coalition of Generation X and Y that are determined to kick out the government. I don't see why Conservative supporters deny this. It is clear from the data.

    Yes, that seems to be right. It doesn't usually seem even based on dislike of any particular policies (people don't usually say "I'll vote for you because I'm against policy X") as much as on a deep-seated dislike of the government ("Yes, I'm going to vote to get the Tories out"). That's why it's not much affected by good or bad news.
    Maybe the way to understand British politics is like this:
    - Only 30% of voters like Tebbit-style Conservatism.
    - The Tories were on 30% for a decade.
    - Under Cameron they did windmills and huskies and things and got another 5%.
    - Then they reverted to Tebbit, so they went back to 30%.
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    Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Er! And the retirees in Spain and France will of course be popping along to their local consulate to vote to get out of the EU? Of course they will be dedicated readers of the Wail, Pornpress, Torygraph or of Rupert 's media and will follow instructions - or not as the case may be.

    Think the last bottle of wine has kicked in at last. Too tired to even think of laughing.
    HYUFD said:

    Edin? I doubt there is much difference in holiday patterns between the over and under 60s in terms of holidays abroad, and most of those living abroad in the likes of Spain are retirees!

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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161
    1) Set furniture on fire.
    2) Ask the other people in the house for matches and petrol.
    3) Say that unless you get matches and petrol, you'll leave the house and stop setting things on fire.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10566124/EU-veto-The-Tory-MPs-letter-to-David-Cameron.html
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,959
    Does anyone know of an excel spreadsheet available for download with constituency census data in, where you can rank them by various demographics and so on?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2014
    Quincel said:

    Does anyone know of an excel spreadsheet available for download with constituency census data in, where you can rank them by various demographics and so on?

    I'm not sure that exists yet. If not, I might have a go at doing one sometime. A lot of that sort of data is available on the UKPollingReport website.

    I recently did a spreadsheet for the 2010 general election results because I couldn't find a decent one anywhere. There were a couple of others but they weren't very easy to read.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    'NickPalmer said:

    'As previously seen, improving assessments of the economy are making no detectable difference to voting intention. If anything, there's a slight negative correlation for the Tories - they seem to fall further behind as people cheer up.'

    So how do you explain why Labour's poll lead has halved in the past 12 months?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    john_zims said:

    'NickPalmer said:

    'As previously seen, improving assessments of the economy are making no detectable difference to voting intention. If anything, there's a slight negative correlation for the Tories - they seem to fall further behind as people cheer up.'

    So how do you explain why Labour's poll lead has halved in the past 12 months?

    Most of the movement came last summer, before the public had picked up any sense of an economic recovery. Since the recovery became "official", Labour's position has stabilised or possibly even ticked up slightly.
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    TomTom Posts: 273
    Qui cel: www.nomisweb.co.uk

    Go into wizard query, select census 2011, and you can then download virtually any data for parliamentary constituencies (or wards or local authorities etc)
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,959
    Tom said:

    Qui cel: www.nomisweb.co.uk

    Go into wizard query, select census 2011, and you can then download virtually any data for parliamentary constituencies (or wards or local authorities etc)

    You Sir, are a brilliant and wonderful man.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Does anyone have a link to Andy's General Election target spreadsheet - Want it to assess my GE betting position...

    You might also be interested in the reported 40/40 list.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2013/05/by-mark-wallacefollowmarkon-twitter-in-october-cchq-announced-that-it-was-launching-a-4040-strategy-aimed-at-winning-the.html


    Interesting list. Shows how far the Tories are struggling in Scotland that they only have 1 MP and aren't bothering to target any seats there. Might as well have gone with the suggested split off and rebrand.

    The one that must surprised me was Colchester as Russell is standing again.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    How is the Tea Party damaging the Republican Party?

    Tu rigoles.
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Ninoinoz said:

    MikeL said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    Naughty, naughty.

    The Catholic Church's congregations have outnumbered the C. of E.'s for many years now. You are also forgetting the upsurge in evangelical and Black churches. Amazing how one talk about immigration and there's always some guy who thinks it won't affect him.

    Also, taking one week is a rather ridiculous way of measuring adherence to a faith.

    Add in the Catholic church and you get to 2%.

    Of course not everyone will go every week but well, well under 10% are going even once a month - if it's an important part of your life you will manage to go once a month.

    Yes, of course there are black churches - but are their attendees really a key source of support for UKIP? I wouldn't have thought so.
    So, I imagined that Black Pentecostal pastor standing in the Croydon North by-election, did I?

    Black Pentecostalists are particularly hostile to homosexuality. See Africa for details.
    If Winston McKenzie has ever been a Pentecostal pastor, that's news to me. Boxer, businessman, entrepreneur, maverick, publican, whatever, but not (as far as I know) pastor. Nor is he an archetype of the normal UKIP candidate :)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,298
    Edin The point was about living abroad
This discussion has been closed.