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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wythenshawe and Sale E could be a dry run for Toby Young’s tactical voting campaign
An interesting development in the past week has been a move by Tony Young to encourage CON>UKIP and UKIP>CON tactical voting in key marginal seats. Such schemes have been seen before between the reds and yellows but this is the first I’ve seen from the right.
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It has to be the worst penalty ever.
Doesn't he realise we've got 10/1 on Palace beating The Spannersurs
http://balls.ie/football/gif-jason-puncheon-hits-worse-penalty-season/?utm_campaign=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter
go to prisonnot have to post a £25 cheque once a year.Toby Young's proposals should be summarily rejected with an haughty and aristocratic disdain.
For what is a man profited, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? or what shall a man give in exchange for his soul?
[Matthew 16:26]
Would be true if it were in any way an official arrangement. But it doesn't have to be - Toby Young, for instance, isn't high up in the party (As far as I know - Not even sure whether he's a member ) - But he's got enough of a media presence to be able to promote the idea.
And even to get into characterising the contest that way, you need a very credible UKIP candidate and very weak Tory.
Good job none of our leaders today would be so bloody silly. Ahem.
I think it's going to be hard to get a useful tactical pattern established while Labour are in opposition. What it needs is a couple of terms of unpopular Labour government on a ludicrously low vote share. FPTP may be helpful in this regard.
Mr. Johnson would never make the same error.
Well, news, anyway. Chilton's got the second Marussia seat: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/25696052
Caterham need to get their arse in gear. Testing starts this month and reliability's going to be a bugger to sort out, especially so for customer teams. Reports suggest a few degrees off-kilter will bugger everything up.
He ignored the wishes of UKIP high command, and stood anyway.
David Heathcoat-Amory lost the seat by 800 votes and the Pro-EU Lib Dem party won the seat.
Edit: My point is not that UKIP cost the Tories the seat, David Heathcoat-Amory probably lost the seat because of his expenses.
That asking the Kippers to partake in an electoral alliance, may not be the best idea, as they won't do what they're asked to do.
Just 33 more and we're level with Man City...
All thanks to that astonishing pen miss - well done TSE for the help this time!!
Toby Young can sometimes say bloody silly things. I recall a QT edition some years ago when he was perplexed and outraged that states kept secrets.
Best day for a while.
http://m.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cd1a3db2-7a00-11e3-8211-00144feabdc0.html
Tories should just take the pedal off the gas in no-hope Northern seats and hope UKIP call off their dogs in lab/con marginals.
However the kippers are just nihilistic enough to not go in for that either so basically Labour are laughing all the way to Westminster
Just amazing that supposedly intelligent people have such little understanding of the position.
And what is more, it is the kind of tactical campaign I might enjoy.
Let's make it official!
The fact that by doing so they are increasing the chances of European integration, increasing the chances of us joining the Euro (and increasing the chances of huge tax rises) is neither here nor there - they're either not bothered or haven't managed to work that out.
Or if they are a bit bothered their desire for a bit of fun outweighs that.
That would almost make it worth it.
* I think it is more likely that the Euro will disappear before Sterling. But you know what - nobody can predict the future, particularly not the distant future, and who knows what transpires over the next 200 years? Perhaps Bitcoin takes over; perhaps we go back to gold backed currencies; perhaps the Euro ends up becoming the Mondo and taking over the world...
Perhaps this is actually what Young is hoping for?
The line UKIP needs to take is that we are the true party of the WWC. This means the less seen of Farage the better.
The Tories need to stand an Southern articulate fop who campaigns solely against the kippers and who completely ignores Labour.
He bounced between insulting UKIP and trying to co-opt them by a watered down imitation of their policy. He's like Clegg to the left: he's worse than the enemy because he should know better. ukip expect Labour and lib dems to surrender to Brussels, but hold out hope for the Tories. Cameron spat in their face. Another great strategic blunder alongside his AV and HoLd reform shambles
In reality the Notting Hill crowd are far closer politically to the Primrose Hill bunch than either is to UKIP.
Especially as my stated views on the kippers are purely motivated by partisan tactics.
Do you look under the bed and search the cupboards, to see if there are any kippers lurking there, TSE?
Sounds a bit fishy to me.
@TheScreamingEagles FPT: so with those numbers, either a grand lefty coalition (I imagine it would be with the SDLP rather than Greens, more numbers and (sorry Neil) a better grip on reality.) But either way you're looking at 3/4 parties coming together to give a majority of 20 or so. The lefty coalition has Dennis Skinner and co. with a blocking minority, the righty one has Peter Bone in the same role. Could such a Government last? Not convinced. The point I'm making is that away from the big 2, there may not be a sizeable enough grouping anywhere else to make up the numbers. And if the big 2 are finely balanced, it could be very messy.
He probably has to produce a large number of these columns every year. It must be rather difficult to talk about current affairs and not repeat yourself, so it must be fairly amusing to throw these hand grenades in every so often.
After all, he'll get a paycheck for this.That's hardly idiotic.
I lost money on UKIP at Eastleigh
I lost money on a UKIP win and on vote share at South Shields
I'm now on you at Wythenshawe.
When you start winning seats you can be boastful.
Good spot
If Labour were in government I could see UKIP winning this but not while Lab are in opposition
Since 1997, tory vote has changed little. Labour was 60% until 2005 when it fell to 52% as libs went from 13 to 21% then labour lost another 8% in 2010 to the three minor parties.
So virtually none of labours lost votes went to the tories. In 2005 it went to libdems and those votes stayed with libdems in 2010, in 2010 the additional lost votes split roughly 50/50 between UKIP and BNP with BNP getting 170 votes more than UKIP. Turnout was 54.3% so nearly half the electorate didn't bother to vote.
We can surmise:
At least half the libdem vote are disgruntled labour voters who may well vote UKIP
BNP vote will probably go to UKIP
UKIP have plenty of non voters to court.
Tactical voting from tory to UKIP will be essential to UKIP.
This seat is not exactly Notting Hill to say the least, the deceased MP was a prominent Roman Catholic who spoke out against abortion and gay marriage and was popular locally. The labour replacement is unlikely to have such socially conservative views, which will enable UKIP to extract a significant chunk of Labour vote.
All in all an ideal seat for UKIP who would be well advised to put up a Christian, anti abortion, anti gay marriage candidate. If they could do a Newbury anywhere this is the place.
Quite a few LibDem voters were really "none of the above" voters, and if UKIP can convince them that they are the new NOTA / protest vote repository they will get there vote.
There are bound to be local issues the UKIP candidate can capitalise on.
And don't forget, UKIP only needs to get 10,000 votes or so, and there are a lot of people very angry with our politicians out there.
I think they can do it. It's by no means a certainty, but I think they can.
Cameron didn't spit in ukip's face but he told the parliamentary party that it is the objective of ukip to destroy the Conservative Party. They will damage the Conservative Party just like the Tea Party is damaging the Republican Party. There is no reasoning or sensible discussion with ukip, god help us if they ever get any kind of power.
Errrr. Something.
An absolute minimum would be around 11,000 but IMO they will get around 13, 000 .
But I think you may be missing the point: see it from his point of view. He has to write a large number of columns every year. If he writes the same thing each time then he won't be a columnist for much longer. The trick is to make most of your columns appeal to the outlet's readership base, but occasionally throw hand grenades. This must be hard to do and keep fresh, at least in the broadsheets.
They get people annoyed, generate talk and traffic for your employer. What is more, it often gets the writer on other media outlets to discuss things. Witness Polly.
I bet many columnists don't really believe in many of the things they actually write week after week. As long as they get paid, I bet most of them don't care.
But really; asking TSE why he is so frit about UKIP, is far from being boastful.
The free-trade libertarianism of Richard Tyndall?
Or the social conservatism and trade barriers of Paul_Mid_Beds?
UKIP used to be a free market libertarian party. And I know Richard still thinks it is that (and I could possibly support it if it was), but many of its supporters on this board have very different views. UKIP seems to be the broadest church of them all - and that is both a challenge and an opportunity.
If Britain left the EU, would UKIP still exist?
I'm sure Tories will be sick of the sight of leaflets saying only UKIP can stop the Tories in heartland seat after heartland seat.
As for Wythenshawe my previous comments about Farage's challenge in Buckingham apply. Does anyone seriously expect there to be a 21% swing from Labour to UKIP when Labour are on course to win the next election? Does anyone think that the vast majority of Pro-European Pro-Immigration Libdems from the 2010 elections will switch to Eurosceptic, Anti Immigration UKIP? Will former Libdem Sale University types pick Labour or UKIP? I think the best that UKIP can hope for is a good second in this by-election.
The problem with Smithson's Newbury/Christchurch analogy is the Libdems were challenging unpopular government held seats not an opposition seat for a party on course to win the next general election. The strategy Smithson suggests will not work because Labour are not in government and therefore not desperately unpopular but are on the up. People at the moment don't want to stop Labour so much as they want to stop the Tories. As such its a false comparison.
UKIP's best chance of winning will be in a by election in a Libdem or Tory seat (where Labour no longer have much sway). After all they were not far away in Eastleigh and actually won the vote on the day. It was the postal vote that let them down.
Still all that said, whats the harm in ramping up UKIPs chances only to pull them to pieces if they don't achieve the nigh impossible?
Putting aside the whole Libdem exodus to Labour, if the Tories resort to the purile "Vote UKIP get Labour" drivel then all that demonstrates is that the Tories have nothing positive to offer and Labour have already won the argument. If the Tories have a serious offer for the British people they need to be challenging Labour on policy not presenting schoolyard sneers regarding a previously minor party.
Every time the Tories attack UKIP in the general election instead of battling Labour they give UKIP significance and demonstrate their own weakness and insecurity.
They have over performed compared to the opinion polls in every by election since 2012.0, and have never been favourite to win anything
You backed a lot of big prices and none won, what a surprise
If you added all the Tory vote which won't happen and half the Libdem vote to the UKIP vote they would still be 1500 votes short and that's without any Libdems shifting to Labour
Now if you look at 2001 or 2005 which I think will be a better comparison for the Labour position. I expect Labour to get 50% plus of the vote share. UKIP will do well to come second.
If the ideas on personal freedom make a comeback then I could well vote for them in the Euros.
Mike had a few bets that were very likely to lose.... that lost
UKIP's socially conservative policies are undeniably very popular among traditional, white working-class Labour people, but their previous policies on flat tax rates, slashing the NHS, letting big businesses fleece people in the name of "free markets", no wage protections, and making huge cuts solely for the sake of pacifying global market investors, would be about as popular with those types of people as a cup of cold sick.
Under no circumstances should Tory voters vote UKIP anywhere. Farage and his chums need to have the oxygen removed from their campaigns not given tanks of it.