politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Davis quits possibly making a challenge to TMay more lik
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They were going to do that anyway. This plan is as dead as dodo in Brussels, just a question of how they take things forward.glw said:
Given what is happening why wouldn't they demand more concessions? May is in no position to fight them.Richard_Nabavi said:
One would hope that the proposal had been run by them first, through informal channels.GIN1138 said:
But when the EU says "Non" - More concessions please. Then what?Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting. Buy-in from Gove and Raab - she's going to bring this off, by the looks of it.Scott_P said:0 -
Suella, my MP, resigned last night with Davis and the other bloke.anothernick said:
So Tories are now saying that anyone who gives support to the PM is "selling out"?Scott_P said:
It looks as though this is terminal. If May cannot get a Brexit deal through her own cabinet what chance does she have with the wider Tory party and Parliament?
If she did take a job it would look a bit odd.0 -
Well she didn't go to a JCL college, she went to the one named after the French/Lancastrian Queen.DecrepitJohnL said:
She read law at Cambridge. Are there any Cambridge-educated lawyers on pb who can comment?JohnO said:
From wiki, wake up to 21st century Britain, old fruit:Jonathan said:
Where do they find these ironic Dickensian names?rottenborough said:
Braverman was born to Christie and Uma Fernandes, who had emigrated to Britain in the 1940s from Kenya and Mauritius. Her mother was a nurse and a councillor in Brent and her Goan-origin father worked for a housing association. She was born in Harrow, London, and grew up in Wembley.0 -
Even though I strongly think the Tories should be prepared to walk away from the table at this point I don't think they will. Being painted as No 10's patsy for ever more concessions won't be a good look.tlg86 said:
Name recognition. Do you think this weakens his hand as he'll be painted as a traitor (strong word, I know)?Pulpstar said:
I'd have thought this would lower his chances of becoming next leader ?rottenborough said:
I had Raab for next leader at 25. Just topped up a tad at 15.Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting. Buy-in from Gove and Raab - she's going to bring this off, by the looks of it.Scott_P said:
That said this is a much better appointment than Lidington as was mooted earlier today.0 -
One of the reasons UKIP could get low information voters in shit holes like Hartlepool to support their cause was the simplicity of their monomaniacal message: Leave the EU. A reconstituted NUKIP with a message of "do a trade deal with Ghana for goods and services" just isn't going to reach the same coalition of xenophobes and the permanently bewildered that Legacy UKIP did.Sandpit said:
Sadly a multi-party stitch-up for BINO is going to quickly bring Nigel Farage and his ilk back with a vengeance. I was rather hoping we’d got rid of him.0 -
She didn't resign, it was fake news from RT.logical_song said:
Suella, my MP, resigned last night with Davis and the other bloke.anothernick said:
So Tories are now saying that anyone who gives support to the PM is "selling out"?Scott_P said:
It looks as though this is terminal. If May cannot get a Brexit deal through her own cabinet what chance does she have with the wider Tory party and Parliament?
If she did take a job it would look a bit odd.0 -
So the point has now been reached when accepting a position in Her Majesty's Government is treachery?0
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I agree. And that is exactly what is unfolding in front of us isn’t it?williamglenn said:
A multi-party stitch-up for BINO would be the worst possible outcome. It would be the entire political class conspiring to stitch us up just to save face after screwing up over the referendum.Sandpit said:
Sadly a multi-party stitch-up for BINO is going to quickly bring Nigel Farage and his ilk back with a vengeance. I was rather hoping we’d got rid of him.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1016250748139720705GIN1138 said:Nobody falls out quite like the Tories when they get going do they?
#popcorn0 -
This is the miscalculation the media are making. They believe UKIP is dead and buried. But if it is BINO then Farage will be restructured. Whether with UKIP or another party.Sandpit said:
Sadly a multi-party stitch-up for BINO is going to quickly bring Nigel Farage and his ilk back with a vengeance. I was rather hoping we’d got rid of him.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1016250748139720705GIN1138 said:Nobody falls out quite like the Tories when they get going do they?
#popcorn0 -
https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/politics/fareham-mp-suella-braverman-joins-david-davis-in-brexit-exodus-1-8560332rottenborough said:
... or not if you offer her a job, apparently?0 -
To me it is clear that Theresa May has failed in her negotiations to achieve what she set out to in her Lancaster House speech or to achieve what was campaigned for as Brexit which she took on by becoming a "Brexit means Brexit" PM. I don't think she's done so maliciously but she's failed for the same reasons Cameron failed in his negotiations - not prepared to make a clean Brexit and the EU knows that so they're not willing to give ground.
To me the following next steps need to be taken to try and resolve this cleanly.
1: 1922 letters should be sent and May must go.
2: A new PM who believes in Brexit.
3: Olly Robbins and any other civil servant who doesn't believe in Brexit must be sacked/reshuffled away from responsibilities in this department.
4: Negotiations need to be reset with the EU.
5: The new PM must say that Irish backstop agreed last December is dead.
5a: Barnier et al have already reneged on this by ignoring part 50 of the agreement and seeking to make it NI only despite explicitly agreeing not to.
5b: It was agreed only with the caveat that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" and quite clearly everything has not been agreed.
6: Any new Irish backstop must be time-limited to as long as any new trade deal lasts for. If we get a 2 year transition the backstop lasts 2 years. The EU and Ireland can't 'have their cake and eat it' by getting what they want in perpetuity without agreeing anything for us in perpetuity.
7: Negotiations must begin in full and in earnest for a proper trade deal while will apply equally to GB and NI. No differential.
8: We are leaving the customs union. If they want a frictionless border they must make it work for our whole nation not part of it.
9: Hopefully if they take us seriously we can actually work fruitfully on getting a good deal.
10: If not we work on earnest on a hard Brexit. That must be our 'backstop'.0 -
A process would have been sketched out. the Chequers statement is the first step.glw said:
Given what is happening why wouldn't they demand more concessions? May is in no position to fight them.Richard_Nabavi said:
One would hope that the proposal had been run by them first, through informal channels.GIN1138 said:
But when the EU says "Non" - More concessions please. Then what?Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting. Buy-in from Gove and Raab - she's going to bring this off, by the looks of it.Scott_P said:
The total immolation, emasculation and humiliation of the Tory Brexit loons is the EU27's equivalent of blue passports - symbolically very important. May has delivered that. My guess is that it will go down extremely well in Brussels and the national capitals.
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On that we can agree.williamglenn said:
A multi-party stitch-up for BINO would be the worst possible outcome. It would be the entire political class conspiring to stitch us up just to save face after screwing up over the referendum.Sandpit said:
Sadly a multi-party stitch-up for BINO is going to quickly bring Nigel Farage and his ilk back with a vengeance. I was rather hoping we’d got rid of him.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1016250748139720705GIN1138 said:Nobody falls out quite like the Tories when they get going do they?
#popcorn0 -
I think May and many others are suffering from the delusion that they need to deliver "Brexit" to uphold the dignity of British democracy. In fact it would be an almighty con. They need to face up to reality and put the issue back to the people with an honest debate.LordOfReason said:
I agree. And that is exactly what is unfolding in front of us isn’t it?williamglenn said:
A multi-party stitch-up for BINO would be the worst possible outcome. It would be the entire political class conspiring to stitch us up just to save face after screwing up over the referendum.Sandpit said:
Sadly a multi-party stitch-up for BINO is going to quickly bring Nigel Farage and his ilk back with a vengeance. I was rather hoping we’d got rid of him.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1016250748139720705GIN1138 said:Nobody falls out quite like the Tories when they get going do they?
#popcorn0 -
It’s not about concessions or no concessions - the May plan isn’t really coherent or complete. A key point is defining the “consequences” of rejecting future changes to the common rule book (clause 4 of the Chequers statement I think) - as several of us have pointed out and Davis referenced today, this would mean the Irish backstop agreement would be invoked, unless the December agreement is unwound. We know the backstop agreement isn’t acceptable to a majority of Tory MPs and it probably can’t secure a majority in Parliament even with some opposition support.currystar said:
If they demand more concessions it will end up with a no deal scenario. They will either agree to this or the UK will walk away. May cannot give any more concessions.glw said:
Given what is happening why wouldn't they demand more concessions? May is in no position to fight them.Richard_Nabavi said:
One would hope that the proposal had been run by them first, through informal channels.GIN1138 said:
But when the EU says "Non" - More concessions please. Then what?Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting. Buy-in from Gove and Raab - she's going to bring this off, by the looks of it.Scott_P said:
All the EU have to do is say “we agree, let’s get that backstop agreement drafted up in legally binding form then” and the whole thing unravels on the UK side without any concessions being demanded.0 -
Oh yea of little faith - Theresa can ALWAYS find new ways to give in to the EU.currystar said:
If they demand more concessions it will end up with a no deal scenario. They will either agree to this or the UK will walk away. May cannot give any more concessions.glw said:
Given what is happening why wouldn't they demand more concessions? May is in no position to fight them.Richard_Nabavi said:
One would hope that the proposal had been run by them first, through informal channels.GIN1138 said:
But when the EU says "Non" - More concessions please. Then what?Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting. Buy-in from Gove and Raab - she's going to bring this off, by the looks of it.Scott_P said:0 -
If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.0
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11. Owls?Philip_Thompson said:To me it is clear that Theresa May has failed in her negotiations to achieve what she set out to in her Lancaster House speech or to achieve what was campaigned for as Brexit which she took on by becoming a "Brexit means Brexit" PM. I don't think she's done so maliciously but she's failed for the same reasons Cameron failed in his negotiations - not prepared to make a clean Brexit and the EU knows that so they're not willing to give ground.
To me the following next steps need to be taken to try and resolve this cleanly.
1: 1922 letters should be sent and May must go.
2: A new PM who believes in Brexit.
3: Olly Robbins and any other civil servant who doesn't believe in Brexit must be sacked/reshuffled away from responsibilities in this department.
4: Negotiations need to be reset with the EU.
5: The new PM must say that Irish backstop agreed last December is dead.
5a: Barnier et al have already reneged on this by ignoring part 50 of the agreement and seeking to make it NI only despite explicitly agreeing not to.
5b: It was agreed only with the caveat that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" and quite clearly everything has not been agreed.
6: Any new Irish backstop must be time-limited to as long as any new trade deal lasts for. If we get a 2 year transition the backstop lasts 2 years. The EU and Ireland can't 'have their cake and eat it' by getting what they want in perpetuity without agreeing anything for us in perpetuity.
7: Negotiations must begin in full and in earnest for a proper trade deal while will apply equally to GB and NI. No differential.
8: We are leaving the customs union. If they want a frictionless border they must make it work for our whole nation not part of it.
9: Hopefully if they take us seriously we can actually work fruitfully on getting a good deal.
10: If not we work on earnest on a hard Brexit. That must be our 'backstop'.0 -
Good read from Paul Goodman:
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/davis-resigns-my-part-in-his-downfall.html0 -
Can’t they just say Government Policy is now no deal. We will prepare all Departments accordingly. Won’t it then go through without bothering parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
True, but TINA. Quite apart from anything else, even in the unlikely case that the ultras have the numbers amongst Conservative MPs, and sufficient support in the wider party, to dislodge her and install someone unsullied by reality in her place, they certainly don't have the numbers in parliament to get any further.rottenborough said:
She is a very long way from getting out of the woods.Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting. Buy-in from Gove and Raab - she's going to bring this off, by the looks of it.Scott_P said:0 -
"..to me it is clear..."Philip_Thompson said:To me it is clear that Theresa May has failed in her negotiations to achieve what she set out to in her Lancaster House speech or to achieve what was campaigned for as Brexit which she took on by becoming a "Brexit means Brexit" PM. I don't think she's done so maliciously but she's failed for the same reasons Cameron failed in his negotiations - not prepared to make a clean Brexit and the EU knows that so they're not willing to give ground.
To me the following next steps need to be taken to try and resolve this cleanly.
1: 1922 letters should be sent and May must go.
2: A new PM who believes in Brexit.
3: Olly Robbins and any other civil servant who doesn't believe in Brexit must be sacked/reshuffled away from responsibilities in this department.
4: Negotiations need to be reset with the EU.
5: The new PM must say that Irish backstop agreed last December is dead.
5a: Barnier et al have already reneged on this by ignoring part 50 of the agreement and seeking to make it NI only despite explicitly agreeing not to.
5b: It was agreed only with the caveat that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" and quite clearly everything has not been agreed.
6: Any new Irish backstop must be time-limited to as long as any new trade deal lasts for. If we get a 2 year transition the backstop lasts 2 years. The EU and Ireland can't 'have their cake and eat it' by getting what they want in perpetuity without agreeing anything for us in perpetuity.
7: Negotiations must begin in full and in earnest for a proper trade deal while will apply equally to GB and NI. No differential.
8: We are leaving the customs union. If they want a frictionless border they must make it work for our whole nation not part of it.
9: Hopefully if they take us seriously we can actually work fruitfully on getting a good deal.
10: If not we work on earnest on a hard Brexit. That must be our 'backstop'.
Maybe you should run for office under this manifesto ?0 -
Indeed. On another note, ISTR one wise sage saying a few months ago that there would be no hosepipe ban this summer. Do you know who this wise sage was, and I wonder if he still thinks that?SouthamObserver said:
I called them Brexit loons and was roundly condemned for doing so. But how else can they be described? Their fundamentalism is utterly destructive. What's more it's based on no understanding of any of the issues involved. Quite, quite extraordinary.JosiasJessop said:
The ERG'eres come across as utterly demented themselves. As someone who often votes Conservative, I am *really* angry about the way they're destroying this government, just as many of the same faces did in 1992-7.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1016250748139720705GIN1138 said:Nobody falls out quite like the Tories when they get going do they?
#popcorn
Except instead of bringing in a cuddly centrist Blair, they're going to bring in a Corbynite government. I'm far from convinced that will be to their advantage ...
0 -
The people have already had a say. Not delivering is not and never has been an option for either major party. It's how they deliver it that is causing all the friction.williamglenn said:
I think May and many others are suffering from the delusion that they need to deliver "Brexit" to uphold the dignity of British democracy. In fact it would be an almighty con. They need to face up to reality and put the issue back to the people with an honest debate.LordOfReason said:
I agree. And that is exactly what is unfolding in front of us isn’t it?williamglenn said:
A multi-party stitch-up for BINO would be the worst possible outcome. It would be the entire political class conspiring to stitch us up just to save face after screwing up over the referendum.Sandpit said:
Sadly a multi-party stitch-up for BINO is going to quickly bring Nigel Farage and his ilk back with a vengeance. I was rather hoping we’d got rid of him.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1016250748139720705GIN1138 said:Nobody falls out quite like the Tories when they get going do they?
#popcorn0 -
It's ashame we can't enjoy the benefit of Dave Allen's wit on this subject.Scott_P said:0 -
Yepnunuone said:
This is the miscalculation the media are making. They believe UKIP is dead and buried. But if it is BINO then Farage will be restructured. Whether with UKIP or another party.Sandpit said:
Sadly a multi-party stitch-up for BINO is going to quickly bring Nigel Farage and his ilk back with a vengeance. I was rather hoping we’d got rid of him.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1016250748139720705GIN1138 said:Nobody falls out quite like the Tories when they get going do they?
#popcorn
0 -
Won't the message just be marginally adjusted to 'PROPERLY leave the EU'?Dura_Ace said:
One of the reasons UKIP could get low information voters in shit holes like Hartlepool to support their cause was the simplicity of their monomaniacal message: Leave the EU. A reconstituted NUKIP with a message of "do a trade deal with Ghana for goods and services" just isn't going to reach the same coalition of xenophobes and the permanently bewildered that Legacy UKIP did.Sandpit said:
Sadly a multi-party stitch-up for BINO is going to quickly bring Nigel Farage and his ilk back with a vengeance. I was rather hoping we’d got rid of him.0 -
They don't need to oddly enough. Brexit happened on 29 March 2019 by default without another vote, the Lisbon Treaty ensures that. If a new PM starts preparations for a hard Brexit and does nothing further in Parliament then a hard Brexit it will be. Unless the government falls on a No Confidence vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
True, but TINA. Quite apart from anything else, even in the unlikely case that the ultras have the numbers amongst Conservative MPs, and sufficient support in the wider party, to dislodge her and install someone unsullied by reality in her place, they certainly don't have the numbers in parliament to get any further.rottenborough said:
She is a very long way from getting out of the woods.Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting. Buy-in from Gove and Raab - she's going to bring this off, by the looks of it.Scott_P said:0 -
... and also reported in the Portsmouth Evening News and Southampton Evening Echo.TheScreamingEagles said:
She didn't resign, it was fake news from RT.logical_song said:
Suella, my MP, resigned last night with Davis and the other bloke.anothernick said:
So Tories are now saying that anyone who gives support to the PM is "selling out"?Scott_P said:
It looks as though this is terminal. If May cannot get a Brexit deal through her own cabinet what chance does she have with the wider Tory party and Parliament?
If she did take a job it would look a bit odd.0 -
It sounded like a good plan except for the owlsTOPPING said:
11. Owls?Philip_Thompson said:To me it is clear that Theresa May has failed in her negotiations to achieve what she set out to in her Lancaster House speech or to achieve what was campaigned for as Brexit which she took on by becoming a "Brexit means Brexit" PM. I don't think she's done so maliciously but she's failed for the same reasons Cameron failed in his negotiations - not prepared to make a clean Brexit and the EU knows that so they're not willing to give ground.
To me the following next steps need to be taken to try and resolve this cleanly.
1: 1922 letters should be sent and May must go.
2: A new PM who believes in Brexit.
3: Olly Robbins and any other civil servant who doesn't believe in Brexit must be sacked/reshuffled away from responsibilities in this department.
4: Negotiations need to be reset with the EU.
5: The new PM must say that Irish backstop agreed last December is dead.
5a: Barnier et al have already reneged on this by ignoring part 50 of the agreement and seeking to make it NI only despite explicitly agreeing not to.
5b: It was agreed only with the caveat that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" and quite clearly everything has not been agreed.
6: Any new Irish backstop must be time-limited to as long as any new trade deal lasts for. If we get a 2 year transition the backstop lasts 2 years. The EU and Ireland can't 'have their cake and eat it' by getting what they want in perpetuity without agreeing anything for us in perpetuity.
7: Negotiations must begin in full and in earnest for a proper trade deal while will apply equally to GB and NI. No differential.
8: We are leaving the customs union. If they want a frictionless border they must make it work for our whole nation not part of it.
9: Hopefully if they take us seriously we can actually work fruitfully on getting a good deal.
10: If not we work on earnest on a hard Brexit. That must be our 'backstop'.0 -
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1016256916933226496JosiasJessop said:
Indeed. On another note, ISTR one wise sage saying a few months ago that there would be no hosepipe ban this summer. Do you know who this wise sage was, and I wonder if he still thinks that?SouthamObserver said:
I called them Brexit loons and was roundly condemned for doing so. But how else can they be described? Their fundamentalism is utterly destructive. What's more it's based on no understanding of any of the issues involved. Quite, quite extraordinary.JosiasJessop said:
The ERG'eres come across as utterly demented themselves. As someone who often votes Conservative, I am *really* angry about the way they're destroying this government, just as many of the same faces did in 1992-7.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1016250748139720705GIN1138 said:Nobody falls out quite like the Tories when they get going do they?
#popcorn
Except instead of bringing in a cuddly centrist Blair, they're going to bring in a Corbynite government. I'm far from convinced that will be to their advantage ...0 -
No specific form of Brexit has a mandate, and the second you try to move towards any one of them, this creates unstoppable resistance.Brom said:
The people have already had a say. Not delivering is not and never has been an option for either major party. It's how they deliver it that is causing all the friction.williamglenn said:
I think May and many others are suffering from the delusion that they need to deliver "Brexit" to uphold the dignity of British democracy. In fact it would be an almighty con. They need to face up to reality and put the issue back to the people with an honest debate.LordOfReason said:
I agree. And that is exactly what is unfolding in front of us isn’t it?williamglenn said:
A multi-party stitch-up for BINO would be the worst possible outcome. It would be the entire political class conspiring to stitch us up just to save face after screwing up over the referendum.Sandpit said:
Sadly a multi-party stitch-up for BINO is going to quickly bring Nigel Farage and his ilk back with a vengeance. I was rather hoping we’d got rid of him.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1016250748139720705GIN1138 said:Nobody falls out quite like the Tories when they get going do they?
#popcorn0 -
My village looks more like Spain with the scorched brown grass rather than the rural East Midlands.JosiasJessop said:
Indeed. On another note, ISTR one wise sage saying a few months ago that there would be no hosepipe ban this summer. Do you know who this wise sage was, and I wonder if he still thinks that?SouthamObserver said:
I called them Brexit loons and was roundly condemned for doing so. But how else can they be described? Their fundamentalism is utterly destructive. What's more it's based on no understanding of any of the issues involved. Quite, quite extraordinary.JosiasJessop said:
The ERG'eres come across as utterly demented themselves. As someone who often votes Conservative, I am *really* angry about the way they're destroying this government, just as many of the same faces did in 1992-7.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1016250748139720705GIN1138 said:Nobody falls out quite like the Tories when they get going do they?
#popcorn
Except instead of bringing in a cuddly centrist Blair, they're going to bring in a Corbynite government. I'm far from convinced that will be to their advantage ...0 -
Yes I think this is right. They will see with either dismay or satisfaction that the UK's ruling party is disintegrating, or at least has been damaged, and will also see that the cause of this is that the PM has tried to achieve a closely aligned Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
A process would have been sketched out. the Chequers statement is the first step.glw said:
Given what is happening why wouldn't they demand more concessions? May is in no position to fight them.Richard_Nabavi said:
One would hope that the proposal had been run by them first, through informal channels.GIN1138 said:
But when the EU says "Non" - More concessions please. Then what?Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting. Buy-in from Gove and Raab - she's going to bring this off, by the looks of it.Scott_P said:
The total immolation, emasculation and humiliation of the Tory Brexit loons is the EU27's equivalent of blue passports - symbolically very important. May has delivered that. My guess is that it will go down extremely well in Brussels and the national capitals.
But then again, if I were to look at any negotiating book, I wonder whether it would say that now would be the time for the EU to double down and reject the deal?
As for services, I'm pretty sure, if financial services is typical, that each SRO will quietly get on with adhering to every letter and comma in the EU rulebook rendering any formal agreement unnecessary.0 -
Why would she? She hasn't yet. She's not prepared to walk away.Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
Like a boiled frog Barnier has chipped away time and again asking for a little more and a little more to move us from where we were at the time of the Lancaster House speech to where we are now. Why would May change the habit of a lifetime and walk way now rather than give a little more again? And again and again and again.0 -
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
0 -
The adverb will just confuse and alarm them.Theuniondivvie said:
Won't the message just be marginally adjusted to 'PROPERLY leave the EU'?Dura_Ace said:
One of the reasons UKIP could get low information voters in shit holes like Hartlepool to support their cause was the simplicity of their monomaniacal message: Leave the EU. A reconstituted NUKIP with a message of "do a trade deal with Ghana for goods and services" just isn't going to reach the same coalition of xenophobes and the permanently bewildered that Legacy UKIP did.Sandpit said:
Sadly a multi-party stitch-up for BINO is going to quickly bring Nigel Farage and his ilk back with a vengeance. I was rather hoping we’d got rid of him.0 -
Who will the new Brexit Jr be0
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There gets to be a point in the timetable where there’s no choice but to go down that road.Nemtynakht said:
Can’t they just say Government Policy is now no deal. We will prepare all Departments accordingly. Won’t it then go through without bothering parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
True, but TINA. Quite apart from anything else, even in the unlikely case that the ultras have the numbers amongst Conservative MPs, and sufficient support in the wider party, to dislodge her and install someone unsullied by reality in her place, they certainly don't have the numbers in parliament to get any further.rottenborough said:
She is a very long way from getting out of the woods.Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting. Buy-in from Gove and Raab - she's going to bring this off, by the looks of it.Scott_P said:
We know the EU benefit hugely by design from the running clock, so unless their response to the White Paper is an agreement we need to make it clear that we’ll be spending a considerable amount of the £39bn on no-deal preparations until the deal is done, as the alternative is that planes stop flying next March. These preparations are going to be expensive, and poor value for money due to the timeline, so the quicker everyone agrees to a deal the better.-1 -
Not necessary. Rather than being flippant I've broken my thoughts down into steps, say which part you disagree with.TOPPING said:
11. Owls?Philip_Thompson said:To me it is clear that Theresa May has failed in her negotiations to achieve what she set out to in her Lancaster House speech or to achieve what was campaigned for as Brexit which she took on by becoming a "Brexit means Brexit" PM. I don't think she's done so maliciously but she's failed for the same reasons Cameron failed in his negotiations - not prepared to make a clean Brexit and the EU knows that so they're not willing to give ground.
To me the following next steps need to be taken to try and resolve this cleanly.
1: 1922 letters should be sent and May must go.
2: A new PM who believes in Brexit.
3: Olly Robbins and any other civil servant who doesn't believe in Brexit must be sacked/reshuffled away from responsibilities in this department.
4: Negotiations need to be reset with the EU.
5: The new PM must say that Irish backstop agreed last December is dead.
5a: Barnier et al have already reneged on this by ignoring part 50 of the agreement and seeking to make it NI only despite explicitly agreeing not to.
5b: It was agreed only with the caveat that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" and quite clearly everything has not been agreed.
6: Any new Irish backstop must be time-limited to as long as any new trade deal lasts for. If we get a 2 year transition the backstop lasts 2 years. The EU and Ireland can't 'have their cake and eat it' by getting what they want in perpetuity without agreeing anything for us in perpetuity.
7: Negotiations must begin in full and in earnest for a proper trade deal while will apply equally to GB and NI. No differential.
8: We are leaving the customs union. If they want a frictionless border they must make it work for our whole nation not part of it.
9: Hopefully if they take us seriously we can actually work fruitfully on getting a good deal.
10: If not we work on earnest on a hard Brexit. That must be our 'backstop'.
The key is any leader must be prepared to walk away and have a hard Brexit as our backstop. That doesn't mean its our preferred option it just means we are willing to do it. If you're not prepared to countenance that then we have absolutely zero power in the negotiations and it becomes BINO as why should the EU compromise?0 -
I always wonder about these weirdos who hang around outside parliament waving their placards at any tv cameras....do they not have a job, a home to go to, a loved one?0
-
Joining Lord Adonis in the 'Driven Bonkers by Brexit' - a strong contender in:
https://twitter.com/MelanieLatest/status/10162521318321397760 -
Yes of course, their loved ones encourage them to spend as much time as possible away from home harmlessly waving placards.FrancisUrquhart said:I always wonder about these weirdos who hang around outside parliament waving their placards at any tv cameras....do they not have a job, a home to go to, a loved one?
0 -
I have a photo with him and a fellow councillor - all looking serious- taken on Friday for forwarding to a constituent on whose behalf we lobbied Dom on the travellers...which we did forcefully. If I knew how to update my avatar, it will replace the one with Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:So JohnO's going to have the ear of the Brexit Secretary.
Hoorah.
All politics is local, don't you know. Managing Brexit will be a singe in comparison.
0 -
She's petrified and doesn't believe in it. In which case she should never have ran at the time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
If you're not prepared to walk away cleanly you will never get a good negotiation.
It's exactly the same as that to have a good peace you must be prepared to fight, to get a good negotiation you must be prepared to walk away. Barnier is prepared to, May is not, so May has zero power or influence.0 -
0
-
A somewhat shorter distance to drive for old Mel tbf.CarlottaVance said:Joining Lord Adonis in the 'Driven Bonkers by Brexit' - a strong contender in:
https://twitter.com/MelanieLatest/status/10162521318321397760 -
Being prepared to walk away is not the problem, which is that HMG has no idea what it wants and the EU has.Philip_Thompson said:
She's petrified and doesn't believe in it. In which case she should never have ran at the time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
If you're not prepared to walk away cleanly you will never get a good negotiation.
It's exactly the same as that to have a good peace you must be prepared to fight, to get a good negotiation you must be prepared to walk away. Barnier is prepared to, May is not, so May has zero power or influence.0 -
There's a much simpler explanation: the consequences of walking away would be utterly disastrous.Philip_Thompson said:
She's petrified and doesn't believe in it. In which case she should never have ran at the time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
If you're not prepared to walk away cleanly you will never get a good negotiation.
It's exactly the same as that to have a good peace you must be prepared to fight, to get a good negotiation you must be prepared to walk away. Barnier is prepared to, May is not, so May has zero power or influence.0 -
One does wonder why almost no planning has been done for no deal brexit. It's an act of negligence by May and Hammond to not prepare for it.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
0 -
Here comes the weirdo again on sky.0
-
That’s only sort of true. The government would have to avoid any form of binding vote taking place in Parliament (e.g. an amendment to a Brexit bill) that could allow the Houses to vote to request an extension to the A50 period. If there was a majority in the Commons for that position it would be difficult for any government to avoid any such vote occurring, even if Bercow wasn’t speaker. If the government contrived to do so for an extended period of time then a confidence motion would probably have to follow, but it’s hard to see May risking pushing it that far unless the majority for an extension was so small she thought it could be chipped away by challenging them to make a confidence issue.Philip_Thompson said:
They don't need to oddly enough. Brexit happened on 29 March 2019 by default without another vote, the Lisbon Treaty ensures that. If a new PM starts preparations for a hard Brexit and does nothing further in Parliament then a hard Brexit it will be. Unless the government falls on a No Confidence vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
True, but TINA. Quite apart from anything else, even in the unlikely case that the ultras have the numbers amongst Conservative MPs, and sufficient support in the wider party, to dislodge her and install someone unsullied by reality in her place, they certainly don't have the numbers in parliament to get any further.rottenborough said:
She is a very long way from getting out of the woods.Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting. Buy-in from Gove and Raab - she's going to bring this off, by the looks of it.Scott_P said:
0 -
We don't know whether or not Barnier is prepared to walk away. So far, each time he's repeated his negotiating guidelines, Britain has softened its line. What the EI's reaction would be if the UK government said "this really is as far as we can go" is unknown, because Barnier would have to kick the matter back up to the European Council for further guidance - and at that point it'd be the members and not the Commission in the driving seat.Philip_Thompson said:
She's petrified and doesn't believe in it. In which case she should never have ran at the time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
If you're not prepared to walk away cleanly you will never get a good negotiation.
It's exactly the same as that to have a good peace you must be prepared to fight, to get a good negotiation you must be prepared to walk away. Barnier is prepared to, May is not, so May has zero power or influence.0 -
I've heard Boris walks to Rosings nearly every day.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes of course, their loved ones encourage them to spend as much time as possible away from home harmlessly waving placards.FrancisUrquhart said:I always wonder about these weirdos who hang around outside parliament waving their placards at any tv cameras....do they not have a job, a home to go to, a loved one?
0 -
Because we failed to prepare before triggering A50.Richard_Nabavi said:
There's a much simpler explanation: the consequences of walking away would be utterly disastrous.Philip_Thompson said:
She's petrified and doesn't believe in it. In which case she should never have ran at the time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
If you're not prepared to walk away cleanly you will never get a good negotiation.
It's exactly the same as that to have a good peace you must be prepared to fight, to get a good negotiation you must be prepared to walk away. Barnier is prepared to, May is not, so May has zero power or influence.0 -
@Philip_Thompson
ok different answer if you don't like the owls.
This is predicated upon a couple of false premises in my opinion. The first is that the EU holds all the cards here. We are due to make a decision in a matter of months and have apparently been negotiating for two years to get to this point. I'm not sure what resetting the negotiations would do right now. None of us know what negotiations have been conducted and the man who was supposed to be overseeing them has fucked off.
Secondly, you are making the same error as many on here by treating NI and the backstop as some kind of flexible academic theory that we can throw out if it doesn't happen to suit our greater desire for X (trade, divergence, ECJ freedom, whatever). But it is possibly the most important element in the whole of Brexit. It pertains to the integrity, peace and democratic progress of the UK. Now you may say fuck Ireland we want a trade deal with Tonga. But that is to ignore the past 50 (100? 500?) years of Irish history and much as you may see it as an inconvenience to be dismissed out of hand, it is the very essence of the dilemma facing us as we prepare to leave the EU.
As I wrote earlier today, that doesn't mean we can't or even shouldn't leave. It just means that either now or ideally before the vote, it should have been explained what this would mean for the UK and Ireland.0 -
It would be today, but how much of a disaster would it be if the government had spent the last two and a bit years planning for it, investing in customs infrastructure, subsidising industry to help lengthen supply chains, getting the existing EU-Third country deals rolled over? Instead we've done no planning, the trade secretary has been too busy kissing Don's arse and industry has no fucking clue as to what the fallback position is and can't plan anything.Richard_Nabavi said:
There's a much simpler explanation: the consequences of walking away would be utterly disastrous.Philip_Thompson said:
She's petrified and doesn't believe in it. In which case she should never have ran at the time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
If you're not prepared to walk away cleanly you will never get a good negotiation.
It's exactly the same as that to have a good peace you must be prepared to fight, to get a good negotiation you must be prepared to walk away. Barnier is prepared to, May is not, so May has zero power or influence.0 -
Also no deal is the one thing we can be sure of and will actually happen if we don’t do something better. If May had set it out as our backstop, she could have challenged the Civil Service to come up with something that avoided it, which would appeal to their better nature.Philip_Thompson said:
Not necessary. Rather than being flippant I've broken my thoughts down into steps, say which part you disagree with.TOPPING said:
11. Owls?Philip_Thompson said:To me it is clear that Theresa May has failed in her negotiations to achieve what she set out to in her Lancaster House speech or to achieve what was campaigned for as Brexit which she took on by becoming a "Brexit means Brexit" PM. I don't think she's done so maliciously but she's failed for the same reasons Cameron failed in his negotiations - not prepared to make a clean Brexit and the EU knows that so they're not willing to give ground.
To me the following next steps need to be taken to try and resolve this cleanly.
1: 1922 letters should be sent and May must go.
2: A new PM who believes in Brexit.
3: Olly Robbins and any other civil servant who doesn't believe in Brexit must be sacked/reshuffled away from responsibilities in this department.
4: Negotiations need to be reset with the EU.
5: The new PM must say that Irish backstop agreed last December is dead.
5a: Barnier et al have already reneged on this by ignoring part 50 of the agreement and seeking to make it NI only despite explicitly agreeing not to.
5b: It was agreed only with the caveat that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" and quite clearly everything has not been agreed.
6: Any new Irish backstop must be time-limited to as long as any new trade deal lasts for. If we get a 2 year transition the backstop lasts 2 years. The EU and Ireland can't 'have their cake and eat it' by getting what they want in perpetuity without agreeing anything for us in perpetuity.
7: Negotiations must begin in full and in earnest for a proper trade deal while will apply equally to GB and NI. No differential.
8: We are leaving the customs union. If they want a frictionless border they must make it work for our whole nation not part of it.
9: Hopefully if they take us seriously we can actually work fruitfully on getting a good deal.
10: If not we work on earnest on a hard Brexit. That must be our 'backstop'.
The key is any leader must be prepared to walk away and have a hard Brexit as our backstop. That doesn't mean its our preferred option it just means we are willing to do it. If you're not prepared to countenance that then we have absolutely zero power in the negotiations and it becomes BINO as why should the EU compromise?0 -
JohnO said:
... If I knew how to update my avatar, it will replace the one with Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:So JohnO's going to have the ear of the Brexit Secretary.
Hoorah.
1. Tap/Click on your name to go to your account.
2. Select the cog-wheel option (top-right on my screen) and Edit Profile.
3. Select Change My Picture from the options.
0 -
I like how she advocates "restoring faith in the democratic process" by:CarlottaVance said:Joining Lord Adonis in the 'Driven Bonkers by Brexit' - a strong contender in:
https://twitter.com/MelanieLatest/status/1016252131832139776
- Appointing someone to the legislature;
- That person being the former leader of a party which won less than 2% at the last election;
- Allowing that person to run in a Party leadership (which is against the Party's rules, which states that only MPs can run).
That said, given his influence on British politics, Farage should have a peerage (though he'd then have to choose between sitting in the Lords or the EP, so he might have already been offered one and turned it down). Brexiteers are woefully under-represented in the Lords.0 -
And of the EU, presumably?MaxPB said:
One does wonder why almost no planning has been done for no deal brexit. It's an act of negligence by May and Hammond to not prepare for it.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
Actually there is massive confusion here between two completely separate possible outcomes. One is literally no deal, which would be catastrophic for us and for many EU27 countries - airlines not able to fly, Airbus unable to sell any planes, the EU tourist industry completely wrecked, financial instruments in which EU companies have huge positions left in legal limbo, massive disruption to UK food supplies, the UK car industry unable to operate, etc etc. Of course no-one in even the tiniest part of the their right mind is going to walk away in that sense.
The other would be a deal which implemented an orderly transition to WTO rules. If we wanted that we should have made that clear two years ago. Too late now of course, and in any case it would directly contradict promises made by the Leave campaign, would conflict with the manifestos of all major parties at GE2017, and wouldn't get through parliament now. That's why TINA.
0 -
Not at a tv at present - who is the weirdo among so manyFrancisUrquhart said:Here comes the weirdo again on sky.
0 -
There's no way to avoid a withdrawal agreement with the backstop etc. regardless of the end state you're aiming for.Richard_Nabavi said:
And of the EU, presumably?MaxPB said:
One does wonder why almost no planning has been done for no deal brexit. It's an act of negligence by May and Hammond to not prepare for it.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
Actually there is massive confusion here between two completely separate possible outcomes. One is literally no deal, which would be catastrophic for us and for many EU27 countries - airlines not able to fly, Airbus unable to sell any planes, the EU tourist industry completely wrecked, financial instruments in which EU companies have huge positions left in legal limbo, massive disruption to UK food supplies, the UK car industry unable to operate, etc etc. Of course no-one in even the tiniest part of the their right mind is going to walk away in that sense.
The other would be a deal which implemented an orderly transition to WTO rules. If we wanted that we should have made that clear two years ago. Too late now of course, and in any case it would directly contradict promises made by the Leave campaign.0 -
My point, Richard, is that the government should have been working to turn option one into option two and made that our fallback position. At the moment we don't have one and option one is still on the table. The government could definitely have negotiated with the EU and also made sure that if it failed then option two was available, however, May and Hammond have blocked it and now we're left with option one or accepting whatever changes the EU make to Theresa's deal, including free movement in full.Richard_Nabavi said:
And of the EU, presumably?MaxPB said:
One does wonder why almost no planning has been done for no deal brexit. It's an act of negligence by May and Hammond to not prepare for it.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
Actually there is massive confusion here between two completely separate possible outcomes. One is literally no deal, which would be catastrophic for us and for many EU27 countries - airlines not able to fly, Airbus unable to sell any planes, the EU tourist industry completely wrecked, financial instruments in which EU companies have huge positions left in legal limbo, massive disruption to UK food supplies, the UK car industry unable to operate, etc etc. Of course no-one in even the tiniest part of the their right mind is going to walk away in that sense.
The other would be a deal which implemented an orderly transition to WTO rules. If we wanted that we should have made that clear two years ago. Too late now of course, and in any case it would directly contradict promises made by the Leave campaign.0 -
I’m pretty sure it was explained. It was just not very catchy or an easy seller for remain. That’s why they went over the top on the economic reports of disaster.TOPPING said:@Philip_Thompson
ok different answer if you don't like the owls.
This is predicated upon a couple of false premises in my opinion. The first is that the EU holds all the cards here. We are due to make a decision in a matter of months and have apparently been negotiating for two years to get to this point. I'm not sure what resetting the negotiations would do right now. None of us know what negotiations have been conducted and the man who was supposed to be overseeing them has fucked off.
Secondly, you are making the same error as many on here by treating NI and the backstop as some kind of flexible academic theory that we can throw out if it doesn't happen to suit our greater desire for X (trade, divergence, ECJ freedom, whatever). But it is possibly the most important element in the whole of Brexit. It pertains to the integrity, peace and democratic progress of the UK. Now you may say fuck Ireland we want a trade deal with Tonga. But that is to ignore the past 50 (100? 500?) years of Irish history and much as you may see it as an inconvenience to be dismissed out of hand, it is the very essence of the dilemma facing us as we prepare to leave the EU.
As I wrote earlier today, that doesn't mean we can't or even shouldn't leave. It just means that either now or ideally before the vote, it should have been explained what this would mean for the UK and Ireland.
0 -
Not sure.williamglenn said:
There's no way to avoid a withdrawal agreement with the backstop etc. regardless of the end state you're aiming for.Richard_Nabavi said:
And of the EU, presumably?MaxPB said:
One does wonder why almost no planning has been done for no deal brexit. It's an act of negligence by May and Hammond to not prepare for it.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
Actually there is massive confusion here between two completely separate possible outcomes. One is literally no deal, which would be catastrophic for us and for many EU27 countries - airlines not able to fly, Airbus unable to sell any planes, the EU tourist industry completely wrecked, financial instruments in which EU companies have huge positions left in legal limbo, massive disruption to UK food supplies, the UK car industry unable to operate, etc etc. Of course no-one in even the tiniest part of the their right mind is going to walk away in that sense.
The other would be a deal which implemented an orderly transition to WTO rules. If we wanted that we should have made that clear two years ago. Too late now of course, and in any case it would directly contradict promises made by the Leave campaign.
If it is a new PM they could just tear up the agreement and start again. However, I think and hope that is not going to happen0 -
Farage and his ilk never went away, and never will until we're living in the proto-fascist society they clearly desire. But the damage they could cause was limited to blowhards letting off steam and attracting (understandably frustrated) protest voters before Cameron got scared and allowed the UKIP virus to infect the Conservative party. You're not going to be able to appease them with anything remotely plausible or supported by the majority of the country, so what if they do come back? It's inevitable anyway.nunuone said:
This is the miscalculation the media are making. They believe UKIP is dead and buried. But if it is BINO then Farage will be restructured. Whether with UKIP or another party.Sandpit said:
Sadly a multi-party stitch-up for BINO is going to quickly bring Nigel Farage and his ilk back with a vengeance. I was rather hoping we’d got rid of him.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1016250748139720705GIN1138 said:Nobody falls out quite like the Tories when they get going do they?
#popcorn0 -
Yep. Also a failure of Negotiating 1.01.MaxPB said:
One does wonder why almost no planning has been done for no deal brexit. It's an act of negligence by May and Hammond to not prepare for it.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
That's two Prime Ministers on the bounce who couldn't negotiate their way out of a paper bag.
At least Brown could escape through the Nokia-shaped holes....0 -
Some guy with an absolutely massive "Brexit - It is worth it" sign on parliament green and then as soon as Sky start to interview somebody he runs up and waves around smaller versions of the same sign in the background. He looks a right odd one.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not at a tv at present - who is the weirdo among so manyFrancisUrquhart said:Here comes the weirdo again on sky.
0 -
Surely Brexit is now clinically dead and just waiting for the court to decide the time has come to switch off life support. Anyone can see we've suffered irreperable brain damage and there's no realistic chance of recovery. No flowers please. Donations to SANE0
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Thanks - I'll give it a go later.MarkHopkins said:JohnO said:
... If I knew how to update my avatar, it will replace the one with Dave.TheScreamingEagles said:So JohnO's going to have the ear of the Brexit Secretary.
Hoorah.
1. Tap/Click on your name to go to your account.
2. Select the cog-wheel option (top-right on my screen) and Edit Profile.
3. Select Change My Picture from the options.0 -
I need to give Liz Truss lessons on how to be subtle.
She captioned the picture with 'I love getting my hands on the controls...#enjoythisflight #f35 #makeitmarham #raf100'
https://www.instagram.com/p/BlAcglxgxkt/?taken-by=elizabeth.truss.mp0 -
May and Hammond and Boris and Gove and DD and Grayling and every man and his dog have blocked it. We were told that we'd be part of a great free trade area stretching from Ireland to Turkey, remember?MaxPB said:
My point, Richard, is that the government should have been working to turn option one into option two and made that our fallback position. At the moment we don't have one and option one is still on the table. The government could definitely have negotiated with the EU and also made sure that if it failed then option two was available, however, May and Hammond have blocked it and now we're left with option one or accepting whatever changes the EU make to Theresa's deal, including free movement in full.Richard_Nabavi said:
And of the EU, presumably?MaxPB said:
One does wonder why almost no planning has been done for no deal brexit. It's an act of negligence by May and Hammond to not prepare for it.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
Actually there is massive confusion here between two completely separate possible outcomes. One is literally no deal, which would be catastrophic for us and for many EU27 countries - airlines not able to fly, Airbus unable to sell any planes, the EU tourist industry completely wrecked, financial instruments in which EU companies have huge positions left in legal limbo, massive disruption to UK food supplies, the UK car industry unable to operate, etc etc. Of course no-one in even the tiniest part of the their right mind is going to walk away in that sense.
The other would be a deal which implemented an orderly transition to WTO rules. If we wanted that we should have made that clear two years ago. Too late now of course, and in any case it would directly contradict promises made by the Leave campaign.
If we end up with that, without freedom of movement, and being a vassal state only in respect of product regulations and agriculture (which as I pointed out before the referendum was always going to be the case in practice, even under WTO terms), then actually Theresa May will have navigated her way to a pretty good compromise. Of course it remains to be seen if she'll get there, but the saner Brexiteers seem to be reluctantly supporting her.0 -
Not the dancing leprechaun Brexiteer?FrancisUrquhart said:
Some guy with an absolutely massive "Brexit - It is worth it" sign on parliament green and then as soon as Sky start to interview somebody he runs up and waves around smaller versions of the same sign in the background. He looks a right odd one.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not at a tv at present - who is the weirdo among so manyFrancisUrquhart said:Here comes the weirdo again on sky.
https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/8058315974171729920 -
Raab and Gove are now fully signed up turd polishers but what about the other 4 sell-outs-Leadsom now thinks she can polish a turd too-?
Johnson can't cope on just £141,000 so badly needs his old weekly column for the DT back or a better-paying job outside politics.Blair and Cameron could give him a few contacts.0 -
While we are f##king about banning plastic straws....
On-the-ground investigation finds use of banned CFC-11 is rife in China’s plastic foam industry
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/09/mysterious-source-of-illegal-ozone-killing-emissions-revealed-say-investigators0 -
Wonder what his handle on PB is?AlastairMeeks said:
Not the dancing leprechaun Brexiteer?FrancisUrquhart said:
Some guy with an absolutely massive "Brexit - It is worth it" sign on parliament green and then as soon as Sky start to interview somebody he runs up and waves around smaller versions of the same sign in the background. He looks a right odd one.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not at a tv at present - who is the weirdo among so manyFrancisUrquhart said:Here comes the weirdo again on sky.
twitter.com/Otto_English/status/8058315974171729920 -
Casino Royale.FrancisUrquhart said:
Wonder what his handle on PB is?AlastairMeeks said:
Not the dancing leprechaun Brexiteer?FrancisUrquhart said:
Some guy with an absolutely massive "Brexit - It is worth it" sign on parliament green and then as soon as Sky start to interview somebody he runs up and waves around smaller versions of the same sign in the background. He looks a right odd one.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not at a tv at present - who is the weirdo among so manyFrancisUrquhart said:Here comes the weirdo again on sky.
twitter.com/Otto_English/status/8058315974171729920 -
Fifth boy rescued.0
-
https://twitter.com/Lzucca/status/1016237606164721664
Of course you'd need a populist, far right, anti immigration government to complete the picture.0 -
There's also a natural human instinct to prioritise smaller, perceived dangers over far bigger far off abstract ones. Brexiteers could largely brush off the potential negative consequences of their chosen path as they were the result of the complexities of the endeavour and contingent - all they had to say was 'we'll sort it when we get to it'. Well, we're getting to it and these problems may prove unsortable in a manner that satisfies anyone.Nemtynakht said:
I’m pretty sure it was explained. It was just not very catchy or an easy seller for remain. That’s why they went over the top on the economic reports of disaster.TOPPING said:@Philip_Thompson
ok different answer if you don't like the owls.
This is predicated upon a couple of false premises in my opinion. The first is that the EU holds all the cards here. We are due to make a decision in a matter of months and have apparently been negotiating for two years to get to this point. I'm not sure what resetting the negotiations would do right now. None of us know what negotiations have been conducted and the man who was supposed to be overseeing them has fucked off.
Secondly, you are making the same error as many on here by treating NI and the backstop as some kind of flexible academic theory that we can throw out if it doesn't happen to suit our greater desire for X (trade, divergence, ECJ freedom, whatever). But it is possibly the most important element in the whole of Brexit. It pertains to the integrity, peace and democratic progress of the UK. Now you may say fuck Ireland we want a trade deal with Tonga. But that is to ignore the past 50 (100? 500?) years of Irish history and much as you may see it as an inconvenience to be dismissed out of hand, it is the very essence of the dilemma facing us as we prepare to leave the EU.
As I wrote earlier today, that doesn't mean we can't or even shouldn't leave. It just means that either now or ideally before the vote, it should have been explained what this would mean for the UK and Ireland.0 -
Philip Lee on Daily Politics sounding like yesterday’s man0
-
You know the Queen and Duke of Edinburgh missing the christening of Prince Louis, is that an excuse to not meet Donald Trump?0
-
Baker resignation correspondence:
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/the-full-text-of-the-resignation-correspondence-between-baker-and-may.html0 -
Take the blinders off. The EU are going insert free movement in full into Theresa's deal before they even begin to negotiate anything else.Richard_Nabavi said:
May and Hammond and Boris and Gove and DD and Grayling and every man and his dog have blocked it. We were told that we'd be part of a great free trade area stretching from Ireland to Turkey, remember?
If we end up with that, without freedom of movement, and being a vassal state only in respect of product regulations and agriculture (which as I pointed out before the referendum was always going to be the case in practice, even under WTO terms), then actually Theresa May will have navigated her way to a pretty good compromise. Of course it remains to be seen if she'll get there, but the saner Brexiteers seem to be reluctantly supporting her.
You've also completely avoided the point, the government failed to prepare a fallback position. No one said that it would be the main negotiating objective and that an orderly exit to the WTO would be the first option. It should have been developed as a fallback and May and Hammond have blocked preparation for it just in case the EU negotiation fails. Until you can explain why the government have no fallback position then it doesn't seem worthwhile to continue this discussion.0 -
He's a good lad, if slightly out there.TheScreamingEagles said:
He used to come to my boxing club in Southwark for a few rounds with whoever was there: always up for it.0 -
Nah. The Queen already has a busy week:TheScreamingEagles said:You know the Queen and Duke of Edinburgh missing the christening of Prince Louis, is that an excuse to not meet Donald Trump?
The Queen, 92, is travelling back from Norfolk on Monday and has a busy week ahead, with celebrations marking the centenary of the RAF on Tuesday and US President Donald Trump's visit to Windsor on Friday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44758589
She's met a lot worse than Trump!0 -
In just a few short week St. JohnO of PB could have the ear of the Prime Minister. 0
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Sky needs to do something about the idiot prancing around behind the cameras0
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Look this way and say ‘cheese’TheScreamingEagles said:I need to give Liz Truss lessons on how to be subtle.
She captioned the picture with 'I love getting my hands on the controls...#enjoythisflight #f35 #makeitmarham #raf100'
https://www.instagram.com/p/BlAcglxgxkt/?taken-by=elizabeth.truss.mp
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Well then maybe in the referendum when Leavers were proposing we walk away and take back control maybe those who believe walking away would be a disaster should have said so?Richard_Nabavi said:
There's a much simpler explanation: the consequences of walking away would be utterly disastrous.Philip_Thompson said:
She's petrified and doesn't believe in it. In which case she should never have ran at the time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
If you're not prepared to walk away cleanly you will never get a good negotiation.
It's exactly the same as that to have a good peace you must be prepared to fight, to get a good negotiation you must be prepared to walk away. Barnier is prepared to, May is not, so May has zero power or influence.
Except they did and we chose to take back control anyway despite it apparently risking disaster.
In order to take back control we need to be prepared to walk away and risk disaster if need be. Otherwise we may as well tell the EU that we are their vassal and will do whatever they want.0 -
No Leavers said anyone who warned about the economic risks of Brexit were peddling project fear.Philip_Thompson said:
Well then maybe in the referendum when Leavers were proposing we walk away and take back control maybe those who believe walking away would be a disaster should have said so?Richard_Nabavi said:
There's a much simpler explanation: the consequences of walking away would be utterly disastrous.Philip_Thompson said:
She's petrified and doesn't believe in it. In which case she should never have ran at the time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why do you think that is, I wonder?Philip_Thompson said:
... She's not prepared to walk away....Pulpstar said:If Barnier rejects the plan then May has to walk away.
If you're not prepared to walk away cleanly you will never get a good negotiation.
It's exactly the same as that to have a good peace you must be prepared to fight, to get a good negotiation you must be prepared to walk away. Barnier is prepared to, May is not, so May has zero power or influence.
Except they did and we chose to take back control anyway despite it apparently risking disaster.
In order to take back control we need to be prepared to walk away and risk disaster if need be. Otherwise we may as well tell the EU that we are their vassal and will do whatever they want.0 -
Melanie Philips is even nuttier than I thought she was! Funny.CarlottaVance said:Joining Lord Adonis in the 'Driven Bonkers by Brexit' - a strong contender in:
https://twitter.com/MelanieLatest/status/10162521318321397760 -
It is at time's like these that I am thankful we do not have the total chaos we would have had under Ed Miliband
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/5951123673584066560 -
He's enjoying himself and doing no harm. Let him be.AlastairMeeks said:
Not the dancing leprechaun Brexiteer?FrancisUrquhart said:
Some guy with an absolutely massive "Brexit - It is worth it" sign on parliament green and then as soon as Sky start to interview somebody he runs up and waves around smaller versions of the same sign in the background. He looks a right odd one.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not at a tv at present - who is the weirdo among so manyFrancisUrquhart said:Here comes the weirdo again on sky.
https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/805831597417172992 0
