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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Davis quits possibly making a challenge to TMay more lik
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Davis quits possibly making a challenge to TMay more likely
The big UK political news overnight is that the BrexSec and former favourite to succeed TMay, David Davis, has resigned as a minister following his disagreement with the PM’s approach to Brexit. Another of his ministers, Steve Baker, has gone with him.
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But what I do know is that I have always been, and probably always will be, frustrated and angry at Mrs May's inexplicably reckless decision to call an unnecessary and unwanted general election. Her repeated slogans that "Brexit means Brexit", and that the UK will leave the Single Market and the Customs Union, have been watered down so much that I don't even know if she actually believes it herself - whether she is deluded, or is consciously lying.
I can't trust Mrs May to make even the most basic and fundamental decisions on Brexit, or indeed on some other things, so I think that it is time to grasp the nettle by the horns and get rid of her, otherwise the lemmings will come home to roost. I want Michael Gove to be PM, because he is a Brexiteer and because he understands detail.
My personal view is that Davis has just given the EU an excuse to reject the deal. I.e.: "look the UK government doesn't even believe in it, come back when you've decided."
The arch-Brexiteers have an ideological sickness, and do not care how much the country gets damaged by their quest for purity.
And it's a alright for them, and for people like SeanT fpt; they're rich and insulated from the chaos. It's the plebs who will get hurt by their sickness. And the plebs don't matter.
A government led by an ERGer - and especially JRM - will lead to a Corbynite government. But the ERGers don't care, for they're no different to Corbyn: ideological purity is vital (or at least purity in their heads; the contradictions don't matter).
May’s toast. What finished her is the bloody difficult woman tag. I lived through the seventies and eighties, and she ain’t no Thatcher. May is nothing. The embarrassing way she and her team have tried to,spin her as tough leader over the weekend just brings home to everyone of her MPs that she is not PM materiel, hasn’t been from the moment she got the job. When did she demonstrate any command of detail? Three key elections in three years, what campaigning immpression did she leave on them? What are her core beliefs she returns to to avoid just blowing in the wind on a day to day basis? If you are going to be a bloody difficult woman you have to be bloody good at it, tell a minister they are moving in a reshuffle they move, not tell you otherwise and stay put. You have to Turn up to leader debates and tough grillings, and stamp yourself and your policy on it. If you don’t lead like that, you are not leading at all. Her ministers are unsackable becuase she’s too weak to sack or even control them now.
Whatever their persuasion on Brexit, whatever wing of the party they are from, this week the tory MPs will vote on the fact this government needs to negoatiate robustly with the EU now, strong on detail and sense of direction, which they all know they won’t get if May limps on. For the nations sake They cannot vote negatively this time just to block someone else, they need to crown a PM whose grasp of detail is priministerial standard.
It has to be Gove. When PM next week, Gove will move/sack Hammond. To extinguish memory of May’s “Turd Way” and get down to proper, robust Brexit negotiations with EU requires brexiteer PM and Chancellor. Regardless what he said of it over the weekend, Gove and his cabinet will be happy todrop May’s “Turd Way” into nearest bin the moment EU publicly reject it.
You simply fail to understand that most Tory voters according to the polls would back hard Brexit and that Rees Mogg is now arguably the most popular Tory alternative to May. Indeed as Survation on Sunday confirmed Rees Mogg has the highest number of voters saying they would be more likely to vote Tory under his leadership than any other Tory.
I am afraid left liberals are as ignorant of Mogg's appeal to traditional Tories as sone conservatives have been ignorant about Corbyn's appeal to traditional Labour voters.
You also completely and arrogantly assume 'the plebs' as you call them are opposed to hard Brexit when polling evidence is not working class voters support hard Brexit as it is the only way to guarantee the tougher immigration controls they thought they were voting for when they voted Leave
No poll currently puts Corbyn anywhere near a majority even if there is one. If he does become PM it will only be by being propped up by minor parties and at the mercy of his backbenchers.
Of course Mexico now has joined Venezuela and Greece with populist leftists heading their government so it is not something completely unusual at the moment
Must be a lot of pressure on Boris, Gove et al. to jump ship too.
At the most Barnier will say May's plans are enough to confirm the transition period will begin once the UK leaves the EU but significant work still needs to be done on negotiating a FTA before it can be agreed which will need to be done during that transition and potentially stretching the transition period well beyond December 2020 if the UK will not leave the transition until a FTA has been agreed
Canada took 7 years to agree a FTA with the EU, the EU has every incentive to stretch out FTA talks with the UK as long as possible post Brexit and leave the UK as a vassal state effectively within the EU during an endless 'transition period' in the meantime. For many if not most Brexiteers even WTO terms would eventually be better than that
It is ignoring the reasons behind the Brexit vote that will hit the Tory vote hardest not respecting it, Corbyn will also face problems with his Remain voting base sooner or later accepted and defections to the LDs if he persists on indisting on leaving the single market as he will to try and keep marginal working class Labour Leave seats
I believe the Prime Minister is a cricketing enthusiast so I hope there will be no monopoly of cricketing metaphors. It’s rather like sending our opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find that before the first ball is bowled, their bats have been broken by the team captain. The time has come for others to consider their own response to the tragic conflict of loyalties with which I have myself wrestled for perhaps too long.
Fact for the day: the Italian government is responsible for holding the UK's accession treaty.
The British military base in Cyprus was explicitly excluded - in treaty - from the EEC. However, today it is the only British territory where the Euro is the official currency.
Davis is in himself no great loss to the government but failing to keep him on board does risk serious trouble for May. She made a serious mistake agreeing the back stop provisions last December. It was a gamble that a better overall deal would be found in time but it has been used to undermine our negotiating position yet further. The proposal she wants to put forward is deeply underwhelming but it may be a realistic assessment of what is possible based on her Head of State discussions at the Summit. Once again though, as with the failed election campaign, there is a chronic shortage of leadership and a total absence of inspiration.
Sure.
Even the token (presumably lefty) comedian on Pienaar yesterday realised that.
In other news: St Petersburg is a lovely city, very relaxed yet with good security around the Fanpark. A slight difficulty with Betfair exchange here in that it works, but seemingly only in Russian.
TM's proposals are a route to the former - they won't be accepted as such by the EU, but are a stepping stone to becoming a vassal stare. It was a similar choice facing the UK in late June 1940, but the equivalent of Halifax is currently PM.
IMV going for the 'traditional Tory' vote will lead to failure: the party needs to cast its net wider than that, and a core vote manifesto will lead to loss. JRM is the anti-Corbyn; they both massively turn off large segments of the electorate.
As for your last paragraph: I'm not being arrogant, I'm pointing out that people who are largely insulated from the risks of hard Brexit screeching 'bring it on!' does not sound good to those who will suffer.
(*) I;m dubious about both these clauses.
never chose a leader called David, they just flounce off when the pressure is on
If May goes this week we’re seriously looking at No Deal, in which case there’s going to be a lot of legislation to get through and it seems implausible that Parliament won’t have to be recalled early - if they even get a summer holiday at all.
But I'd add that backing hard Brexit when it is a theoretical abstract concept of sovereignty and freedom, is very different to backing hard Brexit when people start losing their jobs...
The thing about the taxis was almost set up as if to tempt a photo-op: Departing minister laces up his walking boots, hikes off stoically through the English countryside...
But I'd add that backing hard Brexit when it is a theoretical abstract concept of sovereignty and freedom, is very different to backing hard Brexit when people start losing their jobs...
It was a source of death and destruction for decades and remains hugely sensitive affecting people on both sides of the border and peace has been dearly won. No British PM could ever put that at risk.
Does that mean we can never leave the EU? Of course not. But it does mean that the implications and restrictions on the type of leaving we would have been and now seemingly are doing should have been made clear.
Oh wait I think that might have been mentioned but was deemed part of Project Fear.
Spurious references to freedom: tick.
Brexit must be going really badly when the hardcore are drawing so heavily on their most ridiculous tropes.
An excessively long summer. England doing well at a World Cup. David Davis actually resigns.
Truly, the end times are upon us.
F1: the British Grand Prix was really rather good. My post-race ramble, including thoughts on the Hamilton comments afterwards, is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/07/uk-post-race-analysis-2018.html
Edited extra bit: ahem. 'voters' = 'decision'. Bit sleepy.
The absence of preparation of WTO Brexit made Vassal State Brexit inevitable. It should have been the plan from day 1, with things being negotiated to transition to that state.
I can see why Putin has such a throbbing hard on for Brexit. It's destroying Britain and damaging Europe.
NI is simply a negotiating tactic from the EU. Practically they don't give a shit about the place.
Inter Ireland trade is about £3.5 billion a year in goods that;s about a day's trading EU and UK.
If you think the desire for Irish unification ended with the GFA and that there is not a huge fear of a return to the bad old days, and really it is not just gangsters and drug dealers, then you have misunderstood or more likely not paid sufficient attention to the situation in Ireland.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/jul/09/david-davis-resigns-as-brexit-secretary-live-updates?page=with:block-5b42f51de4b061883625d36b#block-5b42f51de4b061883625d36b
And I see the lady has sadly died after somehow encountering Novochok. Many Brexiteers seem to have a hard-on for Putin and his 'macho posturing'. But who cares, as long as they're not the ones being poisoned ...
So be under no doubt: we can do deals with our trading partners, and we can do them quickly. I would expect the new Prime Minister on September 9th to immediately trigger a large round of global trade deals with all our most favoured trade partners. I would expect that the negotiation phase of most of them to be concluded within between 12 and 24 months.
So within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, and therefore before anything material has changed, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU. Trade deals with the US and China alone will give us a trade area almost twice the size of the EU, and of course we will also be seeking deals with Hong Kong, Canada, Australia, India, Japan, the UAE, Indonesia – and many others.
To be fair... he's only been working part-time by all accounts, so it's really only FTE of 1 year.
I was talking to another dad at a playgroup yesterday. He is a massive England fan, and has a rather difficult and sometimes risky relatively low-paid job. He said that he hopes we win the World Cup, but our success so far has made him feel proud of being English for the first time in ages.
I wonder how much any WC success would affect political stances?
(He has two England flags hanging out of his windows. In my street, just a couple of minutes walk away, a house has a french tricolore hanging off the door.)
Has
- UK and EU sign a CETA style FTA based, like every other FTA, on regulatory equivalence.
- Deal is 100% quota and tariff free.
- We use the three baskets approach - (a) where we have the same regulations as the EU, (b) where they are different but the joint board decides the are 'equivalent' (same as CETA) and (c) where they diverge. This only applies to goods.
- UK agrees that all EU goods are permissible under UK rules now and in the future regardless of which basket they fall into. This completely solves the NI border problem northbound (and, incidentally, gives EU companies almost the same access to the UK as they get now, quite an attractive concession).
- Southbound (and in fact at all UK/EU borders) goods in the (a) basket can be moved without notification. They are fully compliant and there are no tariffs or quotas. No need for inspection.
- Goods in the (b) basket need to be notified in advance. At normal borders they are subject to normal customs clearance. As a concession, in NI these checks are done by audit on the companies making the declaration at locations away from the border (eg MaxFac). So for goods where the UK chooses to diverge somewhat from EU regulations, UK companies will incur some limited border friction but the EU companies will not.
- It is illegal for (c) goods to be imported to the EU and this can be enforced by joint checks and very high penalties. Industries that make (c) goods will need to manufacture to EU standards just as they would in any normal trade relationship.
- Rules of origin declarations will need to be incorporated into the above just as they already are for non-EU goods. Also, inspection bodies in the EU and UK are authorised to issue certification for each others standards to save time and money for everyone.
Perfectly reasonable solution that respects the UK red lines and is not cherry picking, it is just an FTA with a streamlined customs regime for goods where regulations are already the same.
Barry Chuckle?
That £15 will be keenly felt.
https://twitter.com/TheresaMEP/status/1016109626352455685
It was perfectly possible to have done these deals; Remainers don't want them.
The referendum asked if we wanted to leave the EU, it said nothing about the future relationship with the EU.
BINO is still Brexit.
As soon as the backstop was agreed, it was always going to be used as a tactic to force us away from CETA and towards vassal state bondage. I was 100% against the backstop the moment it was announced. I recall you were for May's Christmas deal.
Stop blaming Leavers for the decisions of Remainers.
May just happened to be the person in charge when the consequences of those decisions really impacted on Great Britain's options.
Either she has to sell soft Brexit to her hard Brexit voter base or she gets a hard Brexite PM and has to tour the talk shows trying to justify her positions in a hard Brexiters party and what that means....
Sorry, I entertained the thought that Ruth might actually face some tough questioning by political journalists there for a moment.
O/T: I was looking at the 7-day weather forecast arround the Thai caves - doesn't look too bad, with showers and the occasional thunnderstorm but no actual monsoon yet.
No wonder the Leavers decided that, actually, a blank piece of paper would suffice. The business of creating a plausible plan would be left to some other poor schmuck. The important thing was to Leave, the rest was mere detail.
You are entitled to feel cheated by this, to feel that the country deserved something a little better than this cavalier insouciance. The Brexiteers have had two years to produce something workable and have come up with less than nothing. It turns out that making it up as you go along comes with some strings and costs attached.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/e5a5edca-82db-11e8-ad58-ae35970199d3