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Even now Corbyn is nowhere near a majority either and his party is divided on far more than just Brexitkle4 said:
I'd say no deal or remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This actually makes leave much less likely and TM, to her credit, tried to agree a deal that would have a chance with the EU and the HOC. The end game will now be a Norway style deal or remainkjohnw said:
I really hope so, because with TM Brexit does not mean Brexit, her red lines are not red at all, she is a remainer in leave clothing, she has to go, she has betrayed the democratic will of the British peopleBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am not at all sure that it will be necessary. I think TM will resign as well triggering a leadership campaignHYUFD said:
That Boris statement must surely be a resignation statement if verified? In which case a confidence vote is very likely this week I would have thoughtwilliamglenn said:. Deleted as source not reliable.
The Tories are pretty fucked. Corbyn is laughing right now, he just has to watch them destroy any chance of winning the next election. His own inability to formuulate a policy on brexit doesn't even matter.0 -
At this point, I’d expect May to weather the now surely inevitable no confidence vote later this week. A series of further Cabinet resignations tomorrow and she’s toast (and I’ll be buying the bubbly for TSE to ease the pain of Frankfurt).
The showdown was always going to take place at some point: I had thought early autumn more likely. I’m profoundly pessimistic about the party’s future. Perhaps holding the ultra critical Oxshott and Stoke D’Abernon by-election on Thursday will revive my spirits.0 -
Precisely. There isn’t time.rpjs said:
Which is all fine and dandy for the Tory Party. The country may come to feel that p*ssing about with an internal civil war less than nine months before the country falls over a cliff edge is less than responsible.MaxPB said:
We need to have a bloodletting, it's the only way for the party to move on. Its been far too long since we all had a massive and open fight over the soul/heart of the party. Right now there's too much sniping and bad blood for a unity candidate and coronation, no one will agree on the candidate.RobD said:
There really isn’t time to have a leadership election. The clock is ticking, and I doubt the EU will change their demands based on who is in No 10.MaxPB said:
A leadership election will bridge a lot of the gap. If someone like Javid wins then he'll get the support of all groups except the remainer ultras, only around half of those will back whatever vision of brexit he has. The rest won't be happy unless they've undone the public vote, I wouldn't mind dumping them and running a minority.kle4 said:
The point is the ultras on either side prevent anything from happening. The pretence that all of them can be made happy has led to the incompetent dithering and can kicking we have seen.MaxPB said:
Not really, there are probably about 20 remainer ultras, 20-30 remainer-lites (think May/Hammond), 50-60 Brexit-lite (think Javid) and another 60-80 Brexit-ultras. The rest are somewhere in between and biddable.kle4 said:
Why? There does not seem support across a majority for what the Rees Moggs of the world want either. Surely someone new takes over and the fight just begins again.david_herdson said:
I expect that there will be a leadership contest. And I expect that the Party will unite around the new leader.RoyalBlue said:Perhaps the Tories must now split. A leadership contest will be held, and the supporters of the losing candidate won’t follow the new leader.
History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes...
The party needs to split. It no longer has common cause on the fundamental issue of the day. If the sides cannot agree on a middle way, and they self evidently cannot, they should stop pretending.
Until they tories fight this out they cannot move on. Whether enough is left to move on after the fight remains to be seen.
And lets not forget: the current status of the deal is no deal and it will remain that way until something is actually agreed.0 -
Given a choice between destroying the party or destroying the country, the Tories need to get creative and destroy something else instead.0
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And Darkest Hourbrendan16 said:
Sean T for PM? At least there would be no dithering and we could provide the certainty business needs on day 1!!HYUFD said:
SeanT goes overnight from backing the Great May Brexit fudge to backing Davis and Mogg full hard Brexit.SeanT said:
Tmay has to go. Fuck her and her weird aspergery hand movements. She is a walking disaster. She is (inter alia) a victim of her own autism. All those red lines so soon? What An Idiot.david_herdson said:
I expect that there will be a leadership contest. And I expect that the Party will unite around the new leader.RoyalBlue said:Perhaps the Tories must now split. A leadership contest will be held, and the supporters of the losing candidate won’t follow the new leader.
History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes...
Elect a Hard Brexit leader. If it is No Deal Brexit we will cope. We have seen worse. We survived the fucking Blitz. Let the nation unite around Harry Kane and rhubarb crumble.
SeanT dithered between Remain and Leave before eventually going for Leave.
Leave narrowly won. On Brexit as SeanT goes so goes the nation?
We have tried the Chamberlain approach - time for Churchill and rhubarb crumble....?0 -
The Tories will be more immediately hit. Corbyn is as divided but he just needs to hold it toget her long enough for the tory implosion. They're screwed.HYUFD said:
Even now Corbyn is nowhere near a majority either and his party is divided on far more than just Brexitkle4 said:
I'd say no deal or remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This actually makes leave much less likely and TM, to her credit, tried to agree a deal that would have a chance with the EU and the HOC. The end game will now be a Norway style deal or remainkjohnw said:
I really hope so, because with TM Brexit does not mean Brexit, her red lines are not red at all, she is a remainer in leave clothing, she has to go, she has betrayed the democratic will of the British peopleBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am not at all sure that it will be necessary. I think TM will resign as well triggering a leadership campaignHYUFD said:
That Boris statement must surely be a resignation statement if verified? In which case a confidence vote is very likely this week I would have thoughtwilliamglenn said:. Deleted as source not reliable.
The Tories are pretty fucked. Corbyn is laughing right now, he just has to watch them destroy any chance of winning the next election. His own inability to formuulate a policy on brexit doesn't even matter.0 -
She seems to stand for whatever her SPADS, civil servants and Chiefs of staff tell her to stand for. No one elected Nick Timothy or Olly Robbins but between them for the last 2 years have they in effect been deciding what she stands for?surby said:
She shouldn't have taken the job. Nobody even today knows what she actually stands for.AndyJS said:You have to feel sorry for Mrs May, uniting the two wings of the Tory party on Brexit is an almost impossible task.
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It would appear that it has begun already.HYUFD said:
I think Moggites will soon join Corbynites in telling a lot of their Remainer and Blairite MPs to F off and join the LDsdixiedean said:
Is that the polite Tory way of saying why don't you F___off and join the Tories then?RoyalBlue said:
If that’s your view, you’d probably be more comfortable in the Liberal Democrats.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe it was inevitable but if we go full on hard Brexit I will resignTorby_Fennel said:
Good for you. I honestly take no pleasure in seeing your party in such a state. I used to be a mainly Conservative voter myself until I switched to the Lib Dems and I still have a lot of respect for many of the Conservatives on the more liberal wing of the party. If I had to choose for one of the big two parties to implode/self-destruct it wouldn't be the Conservatives.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thank you - my party are in crisis and I will not support any hard Brexiteers
In the end this looks like a peoples vote is inevitable as is staying in0 -
If that is their answer to the choice of an proven effective & competent Minister who might get the job down properly and deliver, then really are not serious about getting a workable deal.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
She haskjohnw said:
if she puts a remainer in charge of DExEu she will find 48 letters tomorrow disagreeingRobD said:
We’ll see how he feels after six months of negotiationsAndyJS said:
They don't come much more pro-EU in the Tory party than David Lidington.archer101au said:
Oh God, she really is suicidal.houndtang said:David Lidington to replace Davis according to Telegraph Brexit bod Asa Bennett.
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Which suits thr ERG. They are happy to run down the clock for no deal brexit. However, we could get a leadership election done by end of August, nothing is going to happen in the summer anyway, the whole EU machinery is closed anyway.rpjs said:Which is all fine and dandy for the Tory Party. The country may come to feel that p*ssing about with an internal civil war less than nine months before the country falls over a cliff edge is less than responsible.
And lets not forget: the current status of the deal is no deal and it will remain that way until something is actually agreed.0 -
"Theresa May, exit date:
Jul 2018 - Sep 2018: 2.7 / 3.7
Oct 2018 - Dec 2018: 6.6 / 12
Jan 2019 - Mar 2019: 7.6 / 15
Apl 2019 - Jun 2019: 7.6 / 19
Jul 2019 - Sep 2019: 9.4 / 12
July 2020 or Later: 3.35 / 20"
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1255898380 -
And when the answer is an economic catastrophe, then what?Nemtynakht said:
I cannot see how she survives, although this does have a feeling of 2008/2009 and the Labour Party trying to get rid of Gordon Brown. Will the Tory Party be more successful at removing an ill suited leader. I’ve long tipped Javid for leader, and if they could manoeuvre him into position they could be alright. First thing needed would be a large number of Civil Servants working out what no deal looks like, which should have been our base negotiating position all along.archer101au said:
Actually, waiting to resign was a great move. Anything yesterday would have been drowned out by the World Cup and would have played into May's 'taxi' narrative. It would also have looked impulsive. Now he can claim he considered it, asked for clarifications from May and when they were not forthcoming he resigned. They have clear press air Monday and Tuesday and May has to face the 1922 tomorrow. That should be fun.david_herdson said:
No - if there was and organised plot, Davis would have resigned around 8-9pm, in order to hit the morning papers and the 10pm news slots without giving No 10 much time to respond. Resigning so late is rotten PR tactics. I'd say that he's acting alone, not for the first time.GIN1138 said:
An even bigger name is resigning in the morning...oxfordsimon said:Why do it at gone 11pm on a Sunday evening?
Why not wait until the morning when the media are better equipped to cover your flounce?
That said, immense pressure now on Boris, Fox and the rest to follow up. Especially Boris, given what was leaked. Interesting question, mind, as to who leaked it. Boris had nothing to gain from that but nor did May. The natural assumption is that it was a different Brexiteer, possibly one who had his or her eye on the leadership and certainly one who wishes harm on Boris.0 -
That's already coming, that seems clear. It's time for the fight, and for the losers to put up or shut up.kjohnw said:
if she puts a remainer in charge of DExEu she will find 48 letters tomorrow disagreeingRobD said:
We’ll see how he feels after six months of negotiationsAndyJS said:
They don't come much more pro-EU in the Tory party than David Lidington.archer101au said:
Oh God, she really is suicidal.houndtang said:David Lidington to replace Davis according to Telegraph Brexit bod Asa Bennett.
That always works right?0 -
They will when they have to decide between their working class Leave seats and their urban middle class Remain seatskle4 said:
The hope of government will keep labour in place. They didn't split when they thought a tory landslide was coming, they won't now.HYUFD said:
In which case Labour will split soon after, it is straining the elastic to breaking point keeping Umunna and Kendall and Corbyn and McDonnell in the same party.Torby_Fennel said:
I think it's an absolute certainty that they'll split. They're not only facing in different directions but pulling strongly in different directions.RoyalBlue said:Perhaps the Tories must now split. A leadership contest will be held, and the supporters of the losing candidate won’t follow the new leader.
History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes...
At least the majority of the Cabinet has not yet resigned unlike the majority of Corbyn's formet Shadow Cabinet0 -
Good night all. I look forward to the next instalment in our revolution.0
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Your £15 plonk is doing you no good. What is your solution ?SeanT said:
Why? One of the logical endpoints of Article 50 (agreed, post facto, by a Tory PM, despite promising us a vote) is that if ever leave we will leave in a way which severely damages us (i.e. we don't leave at all, or we leave and lose 10% GDP),Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe it was inevitable but if we go full on hard Brexit I will resignTorby_Fennel said:
Good for you. I honestly take no pleasure in seeing your party in such a state. I used to be a mainly Conservative voter myself until I switched to the Lib Dems and I still have a lot of respect for many of the Conservatives on the more liberal wing of the party. If I had to choose for one of the big two parties to implode/self-destruct it wouldn't be the Conservatives.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thank you - my party are in crisis and I will not support any hard Brexiteers
In the end this looks like a peoples vote is inevitable as is staying in
A fucking Tory prime minister, David Cameron, promised us a cast-iron guarantee of a vote on this Treaty, and Article 50, and then did sweet FA when he was in power. Fuck him. He is a traitor like Osborne and Blair and Brown and the rest. Burn them all. Heap up the pyres in Smithfield. As soon as he assumed power he could have demanded a new vote from the EU, and if rejected he could have done a De Gaulle and empty-chaired everything until they agreed.
He didn't.
Enuff. We were failed by all our leaders, left and right, Let them shrivel and die.0 -
I think a Corbyn minority Government where he couldn’t do anything he promised wouldn’t necessarily be bad for the conservatives. I think I might by my Euros for my holiday in the morning though!HYUFD said:
Even now Corbyn is nowhere near a majority either and his party is divided on far more than just Brexitkle4 said:
I'd say no deal or remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This actually makes leave much less likely and TM, to her credit, tried to agree a deal that would have a chance with the EU and the HOC. The end game will now be a Norway style deal or remainkjohnw said:
I really hope so, because with TM Brexit does not mean Brexit, her red lines are not red at all, she is a remainer in leave clothing, she has to go, she has betrayed the democratic will of the British peopleBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am not at all sure that it will be necessary. I think TM will resign as well triggering a leadership campaignHYUFD said:
That Boris statement must surely be a resignation statement if verified? In which case a confidence vote is very likely this week I would have thoughtwilliamglenn said:. Deleted as source not reliable.
The Tories are pretty fucked. Corbyn is laughing right now, he just has to watch them destroy any chance of winning the next election. His own inability to formuulate a policy on brexit doesn't even matter.0 -
The key words there are acceptable deal. The cabinet said May's proposal woukd be an acceptable deal.RoyalBlue said:
The nation voted to leave. If we can’t get an acceptable deal, we should leave without one. The Tory MPs who don’t accept that are the ones going against party principles.kle4 said:
There's not a majority for no deal Brexit in the Tory parliamentary party, I should think, why is opposing that against party principles ?RoyalBlue said:
If that’s your view, you’d probably be more comfortable in the Liberal Democrats.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe it was inevitable but if we go full on hard Brexit I will resignTorby_Fennel said:
Good for you. I honestly take no pleasure in seeing your party in such a state. I used to be a mainly Conservative voter myself until I switched to the Lib Dems and I still have a lot of respect for many of the Conservatives on the more liberal wing of the party. If I had to choose for one of the big two parties to implode/self-destruct it wouldn't be the Conservatives.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thank you - my party are in crisis and I will not support any hard Brexiteers
In the end this looks like a peoples vote is inevitable as is staying in0 -
If a Brexiteer win (and I fully agree that in current circumstances, he or she would; probably Gove), then they get to negotiate on the basis on which they stood. If they can't deliver a deal then we leave with no deal.RoyalBlue said:
Come on David. The majority Brexit-supporting membership won’t be bought off with fine words after this fiasco.david_herdson said:
Brexit is just an issue. It's a big issue but it's not an existential one; that's what UKIP's for.kle4 said:
Why? There does not seem support across a majority for what the Rees Moggs of the world want either. Surely someone new takes over and the fight just begins again. It's not like if may wins, or someone who backs the deal, that Mogg and co will suddenly be supportive of it.david_herdson said:
I expect that there will be a leadership contest. And I expect that the Party will unite around the new leader.RoyalBlue said:Perhaps the Tories must now split. A leadership contest will be held, and the supporters of the losing candidate won’t follow the new leader.
History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes...
The party needs to split. It no longer has common cause on the fundamental issue of the day. If the sides cannot agree on a middle way, and they self evidently cannot, they should stop pretending.
Once there has been a contest and a vote, the new leader has the authority of the Party behind him or her and those who don't like it will have much more trouble opposing it than at present. I think the membership will be a lot less understanding of rebels after a clear mandate has been given to a new leader.
The Brexiteer who gets to the final two will win.0 -
The nation voted to leave having been told repeatedly that the EU would be desperate for a deal and negotiations would be easy. If that turns out to be a lie (!) then we shouldn’t be leaving.RoyalBlue said:
The nation voted to leave. If we can’t get an acceptable deal, we should leave without one. The Tory MPs who don’t accept that are the ones going against party principles.kle4 said:
There's not a majority for no deal Brexit in the Tory parliamentary party, I should think, why is opposing that against party principles ?RoyalBlue said:
If that’s your view, you’d probably be more comfortable in the Liberal Democrats.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe it was inevitable but if we go full on hard Brexit I will resignTorby_Fennel said:
Good for you. I honestly take no pleasure in seeing your party in such a state. I used to be a mainly Conservative voter myself until I switched to the Lib Dems and I still have a lot of respect for many of the Conservatives on the more liberal wing of the party. If I had to choose for one of the big two parties to implode/self-destruct it wouldn't be the Conservatives.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thank you - my party are in crisis and I will not support any hard Brexiteers
In the end this looks like a peoples vote is inevitable as is staying in0 -
I am now busy mopping up coffee from my desk....CarlottaVance said:twitter.com/mocent0/status/1016089017304182785?s=20
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Just how many PMs can Corbyn outlast?
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It seems that Medway Council has caught up with the 21st century and I’ve been able to upload my application for a postal vote (as an overseas voter). I hope if a GE does occur in the upcoming months I’ll receive my ballot in time to return it. Unless it should happen to be on October 4th, in which case I’ll be in London and can take the HS1 train down to Gillingham to vote in person!0
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You're kidding yourself. It is abundantly clear from the outside that it is existential. Pretending it isn't, that the sides can be reconciled, is why the party put off even the cabinet trying to unify until now.david_herdson said:
Brexit is just an issue. It's a big issue but it's not an existential onekle4 said:
Why? There does not seem support across a majority for what the Rees Moggs of the world want either. Surely someone new takes over and the fight just begins again. It's not like if may wins, or someone who backs the deal, that Mogg and co will suddenly be supportive of it.david_herdson said:
I expect that there will be a leadership contest. And I expect that the Party will unite around the new leader.RoyalBlue said:Perhaps the Tories must now split. A leadership contest will be held, and the supporters of the losing candidate won’t follow the new leader.
History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes...
The party needs to split. It no longer has common cause on the fundamental issue of the day. If the sides cannot agree on a middle way, and they self evidently cannot, they should stop pretending.
And that failed too.0 -
No as most Tory voters at the end of the day back hard Brexit, most Labour voters back soft Brexit though and staying in the single market but Corbyn does not as he knows he needs marginal working class marginal Labour Leave seats to become PM as he cannot win many more Remain Tory seats a centrist Labour leader could.kle4 said:
The Tories will be more immediately hit. Corbyn is as divided but he just needs to hold it toget her long enough for the tory implosion. They're screwed.HYUFD said:
Even now Corbyn is nowhere near a majority either and his party is divided on far more than just Brexitkle4 said:
I'd say no deal or remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This actually makes leave much less likely and TM, to her credit, tried to agree a deal that would have a chance with the EU and the HOC. The end game will now be a Norway style deal or remainkjohnw said:
I really hope so, because with TM Brexit does not mean Brexit, her red lines are not red at all, she is a remainer in leave clothing, she has to go, she has betrayed the democratic will of the British peopleBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am not at all sure that it will be necessary. I think TM will resign as well triggering a leadership campaignHYUFD said:
That Boris statement must surely be a resignation statement if verified? In which case a confidence vote is very likely this week I would have thoughtwilliamglenn said:. Deleted as source not reliable.
The Tories are pretty fucked. Corbyn is laughing right now, he just has to watch them destroy any chance of winning the next election. His own inability to formuulate a policy on brexit doesn't even matter.
So long term Brexit screws Corbyn more than a hard Brexit backing Tory leader0 -
Their preferred deal is NO DEAL. They want to fall off the cliff because they believe as they fall, they will begin to fly to the promised land.fitalass said:
If that is their answer to the choice of an proven effective & competent Minister who might get the job down properly and deliver, then really are not serious about getting a workable deal.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
They key words there are long term.HYUFD said:
No as most Tory voters at the end of the day back hard Brexit, most Labour voters back soft Brexit though and staying in the single market but Corbyn does not as he knows he needs marginal working class Leave seats to become PM as he cannot win many more Remain Tory seats a centrist Labour leader did.kle4 said:
The Tories will be more immediately hit. Corbyn is as divided but he just needs to hold it toget her long enough for the tory implosion. They're screwed.HYUFD said:
Even now Corbyn is nowhere near a majority either and his party is divided on far more than just Brexitkle4 said:
I'd say no deal or remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This actually makes leave much less likely and TM, to her credit, tried to agree a deal that would have a chance with the EU and the HOC. The end game will now be a Norway style deal or remainkjohnw said:
I really hope so, because with TM Brexit does not mean Brexit, her red lines are not red at all, she is a remainer in leave clothing, she has to go, she has betrayed the democratic will of the British peopleBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am not at all sure that it will be necessary. I think TM will resign as well triggering a leadership campaignHYUFD said:
That Boris statement must surely be a resignation statement if verified? In which case a confidence vote is very likely this week I would have thoughtwilliamglenn said:. Deleted as source not reliable.
The Tories are pretty fucked. Corbyn is laughing right now, he just has to watch them destroy any chance of winning the next election. His own inability to formuulate a policy on brexit doesn't even matter.
So long term Brexit screws Corbyn more than a hard Brexit backing Tory leader0 -
Then mitigate the catastrophe that people voted for?not_on_fire said:
And when the answer is an economic catastrophe, then what?Nemtynakht said:
I cannot see how she survives, although this does have a feeling of 2008/2009 and the Labour Party trying to get rid of Gordon Brown. Will the Tory Party be more successful at removing an ill suited leader. I’ve long tipped Javid for leader, and if they could manoeuvre him into position they could be alright. First thing needed would be a large number of Civil Servants working out what no deal looks like, which should have been our base negotiating position all along.archer101au said:
Actually, waiting to resign was a great move. Anything yesterday would have been drowned out by the World Cup and would have played into May's 'taxi' narrative. It would also have looked impulsive. Now he can claim he considered it, asked for clarifications from May and when they were not forthcoming he resigned. They have clear press air Monday and Tuesday and May has to face the 1922 tomorrow. That should be fun.david_herdson said:
No - if there was and organised plot, Davis would have resigned around 8-9pm, in order to hit the morning papers and the 10pm news slots without giving No 10 much time to respond. Resigning so late is rotten PR tactics. I'd say that he's acting alone, not for the first time.GIN1138 said:
An even bigger name is resigning in the morning...oxfordsimon said:Why do it at gone 11pm on a Sunday evening?
Why not wait until the morning when the media are better equipped to cover your flounce?
That said, immense pressure now on Boris, Fox and the rest to follow up. Especially Boris, given what was leaked. Interesting question, mind, as to who leaked it. Boris had nothing to gain from that but nor did May. The natural assumption is that it was a different Brexiteer, possibly one who had his or her eye on the leadership and certainly one who wishes harm on Boris.0 -
If the tories are in chaos, and it appears they will be, they can hold both, even if they shouldn't. I don't think you realise how stupid and incompetent this government is looking.HYUFD said:
They will when they have to decide between their working class Leave seats and their urban middle class Remain seatskle4 said:
The hope of government will keep labour in place. They didn't split when they thought a tory landslide was coming, they won't now.HYUFD said:
In which case Labour will split soon after, it is straining the elastic to breaking point keeping Umunna and Kendall and Corbyn and McDonnell in the same party.Torby_Fennel said:
I think it's an absolute certainty that they'll split. They're not only facing in different directions but pulling strongly in different directions.RoyalBlue said:Perhaps the Tories must now split. A leadership contest will be held, and the supporters of the losing candidate won’t follow the new leader.
History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes...
At least the majority of the Cabinet has not yet resigned unlike the majority of Corbyn's formet Shadow Cabinet
Which might be fixable, but still the factions fight.0 -
But you see, that’s the problem. Any attempt to mitigate the pointless and self-inflicted damage of Brexit is “defying the will of the people”. It’s exaclty this silliness that has got us into this mess.Nemtynakht said:
Then mitigate the catastrophe that people voted for?not_on_fire said:
And when the answer is an economic catastrophe, then what?Nemtynakht said:
I cannot see how she survives, although this does have a feeling of 2008/2009 and the Labour Party trying to get rid of Gordon Brown. Will the Tory Party be more successful at removing an ill suited leader. I’ve long tipped Javid for leader, and if they could manoeuvre him into position they could be alright. First thing needed would be a large number of Civil Servants working out what no deal looks like, which should have been our base negotiating position all along.archer101au said:
Actually, waiting to resign was a great move. Anything yesterday would have been drowned out by the World Cup and would have played into May's 'taxi' narrative. It would also have looked impulsive. Now he can claim he considered it, asked for clarifications from May and when they were not forthcoming he resigned. They have clear press air Monday and Tuesday and May has to face the 1922 tomorrow. That should be fun.david_herdson said:
No - if there was and organised plot, Davis would have resigned around 8-9pm, in order to hit the morning papers and the 10pm news slots without giving No 10 much time to respond. Resigning so late is rotten PR tactics. I'd say that he's acting alone, not for the first time.GIN1138 said:
An even bigger name is resigning in the morning...oxfordsimon said:Why do it at gone 11pm on a Sunday evening?
Why not wait until the morning when the media are better equipped to cover your flounce?
That said, immense pressure now on Boris, Fox and the rest to follow up. Especially Boris, given what was leaked. Interesting question, mind, as to who leaked it. Boris had nothing to gain from that but nor did May. The natural assumption is that it was a different Brexiteer, possibly one who had his or her eye on the leadership and certainly one who wishes harm on Boris.0 -
Get rid of a full department which does not even determine its own policies.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Forget about what the polls say now, if there is another election because the Tories implode, Labour will win a comfortable majority, perhaps a landslide one. It really is as straightforward as that. Voters will not return a party that has torn itself asunder back to office.HYUFD said:
No as most Tory voters at the end of the day back hard Brexit, most Labour voters back soft Brexit though and staying in the single market but Corbyn does not as he knows he needs marginal working class Leave seats to become PM as he cannot win many more Remain Tory seats a centrist Labour leader did.kle4 said:
The Tories will be more immediately hit. Corbyn is as divided but he just needs to hold it toget her long enough for the tory implosion. They're screwed.HYUFD said:
Even now Corbyn is nowhere near a majority either and his party is divided on far more than just Brexitkle4 said:
I'd say no deal or remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This actually makes leave much less likely and TM, to her credit, tried to agree a deal that would have a chance with the EU and the HOC. The end game will now be a Norway style deal or remainkjohnw said:
I really hope so, because with TM Brexit does not mean Brexit, her red lines are not red at all, she is a remainer in leave clothing, she has to go, she has betrayed the democratic will of the British peopleBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am not at all sure that it will be necessary. I think TM will resign as well triggering a leadership campaignHYUFD said:
That Boris statement must surely be a resignation statement if verified? In which case a confidence vote is very likely this week I would have thoughtwilliamglenn said:. Deleted as source not reliable.
The Tories are pretty fucked. Corbyn is laughing right now, he just has to watch them destroy any chance of winning the next election. His own inability to formuulate a policy on brexit doesn't even matter.
So long term Brexit screws Corbyn more than a hard Brexit backing Tory leader
Of course, that’s when Corbyn’s own problems will begin and his govt may meet the same fate.0 -
I wonder if some in the EU are worried that it seems as though leaving is impossible, and that they are all on the same train with no possibility of getting off?0
-
Not all countries have as sclerotic a political system as we do, which has been a big part of the problem. There is no way that Mogg and Soubry would be in the same party under a continental electoral system (or indeed Umunna and Corbyn)RobD said:I wonder if some in the EU are worried that it seems as though leaving is impossible, and that they are all on the same train with no possibility of getting off?
0 -
100% agree. Corbyn's government would face many problems indeed. But no way the tories are largest party when tearing themselves apart.JohnO said:
Forget about what the polls say now, if there is another election because the Tories implode, Labour will win a comfortable majority, perhaps a landslide one. It really is as straightforward as that. Voters will not return a party that has torn itself asunder back to office.HYUFD said:
No as most Tory voters at the end of the day back hard Brexit, most Labour voters back soft Brexit though and staying in the single market but Corbyn does not as he knows he needs marginal working class Leave seats to become PM as he cannot win many more Remain Tory seats a centrist Labour leader did.kle4 said:
The Tories will be more immediately hit. Corbyn is as divided but he just needs to hold it toget her long enough for the tory implosion. They're screwed.HYUFD said:
Even now Corbyn is nowhere near a majority either and his party is divided on far more than just Brexitkle4 said:
I'd say no deal or remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This actually makes leave much less likely and TM, to her credit, tried to agree a deal that would have a chance with the EU and the HOC. The end game will now be a Norway style deal or remainkjohnw said:
I really hope so, because with TM Brexit does not mean Brexit, her red lines are not red at all, she is a remainer in leave clothing, she has to go, she has betrayed the democratic will of the British peopleBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am not at all sure that it will be necessary. I think TM will resign as well triggering a leadership campaignHYUFD said:
That Boris statement must surely be a resignation statement if verified? In which case a confidence vote is very likely this week I would have thoughtwilliamglenn said:. Deleted as source not reliable.
The Tories are pretty fucked. Corbyn is laughing right now, he just has to watch them destroy any chance of winning the next election. His own inability to formuulate a policy on brexit doesn't even matter.
So long term Brexit screws Corbyn more than a hard Brexit backing Tory leader
Of course, that’s when Corbyn’s own problems will begin and his govt may meet the same fate.0 -
I don’t see how Corbyn will be in a position to have majority government in the short term. I think the Tory support is significantly held up by those who don’t want a Corbyn Government, so as long as they put someone up and they don’t totally disintegrate there is a significant block between Corbyn and power.kle4 said:
They key words there are long term.HYUFD said:
No as most Tory voters at the end of the day back hard Brexit, most Labour voters back soft Brexit though and staying in the single market but Corbyn does not as he knows he needs marginal working class Leave seats to become PM as he cannot win many more Remain Tory seats a centrist Labour leader did.kle4 said:
The Tories will be more immediately hit. Corbyn is as divided but he just needs to hold it toget her long enough for the tory implosion. They're screwed.HYUFD said:
Even now Corbyn is nowhere near a majority either and his party is divided on far more than just Brexitkle4 said:
I'd say no deal or remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This actually makes leave much less likely and TM, to her credit, tried to agree a deal that would have a chance with the EU and the HOC. The end game will now be a Norway style deal or remainkjohnw said:
I really hope so, because with TM Brexit does not mean Brexit, her red lines are not red at all, she is a remainer in leave clothing, she has to go, she has betrayed the democratic will of the British peopleBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am not at all sure that it will be necessary. I think TM will resign as well triggering a leadership campaignHYUFD said:
That Boris statement must surely be a resignation statement if verified? In which case a confidence vote is very likely this week I would have thoughtwilliamglenn said:. Deleted as source not reliable.
The Tories are pretty fucked. Corbyn is laughing right now, he just has to watch them destroy any chance of winning the next election. His own inability to formuulate a policy on brexit doesn't even matter.
So long term Brexit screws Corbyn more than a hard Brexit backing Tory leader0 -
You can always change your will with another visit to a solicitor.not_on_fire said:
But you see, that’s the problem. Any attempt to mitigate the pointless and self-inflicted damage of Brexit is “defying the will of the people”. It’s exaclty this silliness that has got us into this mess.Nemtynakht said:
Then mitigate the catastrophe that people voted for?not_on_fire said:
And when the answer is an economic catastrophe, then what?Nemtynakht said:
I cannot see how she survives, although this does have a feeling of 2008/2009 and the Labour Party trying to get rid of Gordon Brown. Will the Tory Party be more successful at removing an ill suited leader. I’ve long tipped Javid for leader, and if they could manoeuvre him into position they could be alright. First thing needed would be a large number of Civil Servants working out what no deal looks like, which should have been our base negotiating position all along.archer101au said:
Actually, waiting to resign was a great move. Anything yesterday would have been drowned out by the World Cup and would have played into May's 'taxi' narrative. It would also have looked impulsive. Now he can claim he considered it, asked for clarifications from May and when they were not forthcoming he resigned. They have clear press air Monday and Tuesday and May has to face the 1922 tomorrow. That should be fun.david_herdson said:
No - if there was and organised plot, Davis would have resigned around 8-9pm, in order to hit the morning papers and the 10pm news slots without giving No 10 much time to respond. Resigning so late is rotten PR tactics. I'd say that he's acting alone, not for the first time.GIN1138 said:
An even bigger name is resigning in the morning...oxfordsimon said:Why do it at gone 11pm on a Sunday evening?
Why not wait until the morning when the media are better equipped to cover your flounce?
That said, immense pressure now on Boris, Fox and the rest to follow up. Especially Boris, given what was leaked. Interesting question, mind, as to who leaked it. Boris had nothing to gain from that but nor did May. The natural assumption is that it was a different Brexiteer, possibly one who had his or her eye on the leadership and certainly one who wishes harm on Boris.
Likewise, the will of the people can also be changed by another visit to the polling station. Why should a will be a permanent one ?0 -
I don't see how she can currently appoint anyone to replace DD. Who would want the job? Just look how she and Olly Robbins have been undercutting DD to create their own master plan over the last few months. It's become a non-job.Dura_Ace said:So who will replace him? Perhaps, in a radical departure from her previous strategy, May will appoint somebody who is not a clueless drunken old sod. Maybe Gove, the Grima Wormtongue of the cabinet, will be recognised as having the utter lack of principles we need in this terrible situation.
What she has now is her plan. She owns it. She can't blame anyone else. And it's so complex and messy that nobody will want it when they've kicked the tyres - not the EU, not her party members, not the 17.4m voters.
DD resigning could break the spell. Like the emperor's new clothes, people will suddenly see that she is a prime minister with no authority. None. She can't sell something she doesn't believe in. She doesn't have the will for it. She doesn't have the vision. She is a poor performer on TV. She's an awful campaigner. She vacillates and ties herself in knots. She is weighed in the balance and found wanting. She has to go.0 -
And our next move is then ?ExiledInScotland said:
I don't see how she can currently appoint anyone to replace DD. Who would want the job? Just look how she and Olly Robbins have been undercutting DD to create their own master plan over the last few months. It's become a non-job.Dura_Ace said:So who will replace him? Perhaps, in a radical departure from her previous strategy, May will appoint somebody who is not a clueless drunken old sod. Maybe Gove, the Grima Wormtongue of the cabinet, will be recognised as having the utter lack of principles we need in this terrible situation.
What she has now is her plan. She owns it. She can't blame anyone else. And it's so complex and messy that nobody will want it when they've kicked the tyres - not the EU, not her party members, not the 17.4m voters.
DD resigning could break the spell. Like the emperor's new clothes, people will suddenly see that she is a prime minister with no authority. None. She can't sell something she doesn't believe in. She doesn't have the will for it. She doesn't have the vision. She is a poor performer on TV. She's an awful campaigner. She vacillates and ties herself in knots. She is weighed in the balance and found wanting. She has to go.0 -
One of the best things about dumping Theresa will be getting rid of Robbins. He's definitely part of the problem. Hammond as well, another virulent remainer.0
-
God Bless the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.kle4 said:
100% agree. Corbyn's government would face many problems indeed. But no way the tories are largest party when tearing themselves apart.JohnO said:
Forget about what the polls say now, if there is another election because the Tories implode, Labour will win a comfortable majority, perhaps a landslide one. It really is as straightforward as that. Voters will not return a party that has torn itself asunder back to office.HYUFD said:
No as most Tory voters at the end of the day back hard Brexit, most Labour voters back soft Brexit though and staying in the single market but Corbyn does not as he knows he needs marginal working class Leave seats to become PM as he cannot win many more Remain Tory seats a centrist Labour leader did.kle4 said:
The Tories will be more immediately hit. Corbyn is as divided but he just needs to hold it toget her long enough for the tory implosion. They're screwed.HYUFD said:
Even now Corbyn is nowhere near a majority either and his party is divided on far more than just Brexitkle4 said:
I'd say no deal or remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This actually makes leave much less likely and TM, to her credit, tried to agree a deal that would have a chance with the EU and the HOC. The end game will now be a Norway style deal or remainkjohnw said:
I really hope so, because with TM Brexit does not mean Brexit, her red lines are not red at all, she is a remainer in leave clothing, she has to go, she has betrayed the democratic will of the British peopleBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am not at all sure that it will be necessary. I think TM will resign as well triggering a leadership campaignHYUFD said:
That Boris statement must surely be a resignation statement if verified? In which case a confidence vote is very likely this week I would have thoughtwilliamglenn said:. Deleted as source not reliable.
The Tories are pretty fucked. Corbyn is laughing right now, he just has to watch them destroy any chance of winning the next election. His own inability to formuulate a policy on brexit doesn't even matter.
So long term Brexit screws Corbyn more than a hard Brexit backing Tory leader
Of course, that’s when Corbyn’s own problems will begin and his govt may meet the same fate.
Although there’s something to be said about leaving office now, rather than letting the resentment build.0 -
0
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That'll be fine for you, me and almost exclusively well heeled 50 somethings that are the inmates of pb.com. But people actually rely on those Airbus jobs and other jobs like them to pay their mortgages. They are not going to well disposed to the purblind recklessness of Brexit when they are living in B&Bs.SeanT said:
A new vote. And if the Commons won't agree this, then No Deal, and we Exit to WTO, and we don't pay £40bn, and Airbus leaves, and the rest.
We will survive. THIS IS SPARTA.0 -
Aka the realists.MaxPB said:One of the best things about dumping Theresa will be getting rid of Robbins. He's definitely part of the problem. Hammond as well, another virulent remainer.
0 -
How soon we forget the last time we decided a Conservative Leader on those grounds, it delivered us IDS!MaxPB said:
If it gets to the membership then it will be whoever is more sceptic. Both final candidates will use May's insipid deal as a starting point and atrip away or add to it what they want, though.kle4 said:
They might not split. But they should. And it's more than 20. What if someone who backs the deal wins? Then you've got 60 plus who won't get in line. It's become a joke. The party needs to decide what it's stance is already.MaxPB said:
Nah, you're far too negative on this. We won't split because 20 or so MPs from the 2017 election won't get in line. We might run the clock down on brexit, leave and then go to the public with a new leader.kle4 said:
But the tories cannot agree on what deal to ask for. There is no deal to be had now -May's gambit has failed. Therefore there is nothing to put to the people. No deal does not have enough support either. So sonething must be given as an alternative. It will be remain.MaxPB said:
No way, if we proposed any referendum which has remain on the ballot paper we'd be out of powered for a generation or longer. It would be "the deal" vs "No deal" both options would take us out of the EU.kle4 said:
I'd say no deal or remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This actually makes leave much less likely and TM, to her credit, tried to agree a deal that would have a chance with the EU and the HOC. The end game will now be a Norway style deal or remainkjohnw said:
I really hope so, because with TM Brexit does not mean Brexit, her red lines are not red at all, she is a remainer in leave clothing, she has to go, she has betrayed the democratic will of the British peopleBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am not at all sure that it will be necessary. I think TM will resign as well triggering a leadership campaignHYUFD said:
That Boris statement must surely be a resignation statement if verified? In which case a confidence vote is very likely this week I would have thoughtwilliamglenn said:. Deleted as source not reliable.
The Tories are pretty fucked. Corbyn is laughing right now, he just has to watch them destroy any chance of winning the next election. His own inability to formuulate a policy on brexit doesn't even matter.
And yes they probably will be out of power for a generation. Brexit has destroyed it. It held on for a bit, but the sides cannot coexist like this.0 -
A Corbyn government would attempt many poor ideas, and likely be riven with infighting. But this government is and will remain riven with infighting for certain. No one they put up can bring together people who want a soft Brexit and those who want a no deal Brexit. So the incompetence will continue.Nemtynakht said:
I don’t see how Corbyn will be in a position to have majority government in the short term. I think the Tory support is significantly held up by those who don’t want a Corbyn Government, so as long as they put someone up and they don’t totally disintegrate there is a significant block between Corbyn and power.kle4 said:
They key words there are long term.HYUFD said:
No as most Tory voters at the end of the day back hard Brexit, most Labour voters back soft Brexit though and staying in the single market but Corbyn does not as he knows he needs marginal working class Leave seats to become PM as he cannot win many more Remain Tory seats a centrist Labour leader did.kle4 said:
The Tories will be more immediately hit. Corbyn is as divided but he just needs to hold it toget her long enough for the tory implosion. They're screwed.HYUFD said:
Even now Corbyn is nowhere near a majority either and his party is divided on far more than just Brexitkle4 said:
I'd say no deal or remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This actually makes leave much less likely and TM, to her credit, tried to agree a deal that would have a chance with the EU and the HOC. The end game will now be a Norway style deal or remainkjohnw said:
I really hope so, because with TM Brexit does not mean Brexit, her red lines are not red at all, she is a remainer in leave clothing, she has to go, she has betrayed the democratic will of the British peopleBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am not at all sure that it will be necessary. I think TM will resign as well triggering a leadership campaignHYUFD said:
That Boris statement must surely be a resignation statement if verified? In which case a confidence vote is very likely this week I would have thoughtwilliamglenn said:. Deleted as source not reliable.
The Tories are pretty fucked. Corbyn is laughing right now, he just has to watch them destroy any chance of winning the next election. His own inability to formuulate a policy on brexit doesn't even matter.
So long term Brexit screws Corbyn more than a hard Brexit backing Tory leader0 -
No, the EUphiles who are trying to subvert democracy, much like your own views.not_on_fire said:
Aka the realists.MaxPB said:One of the best things about dumping Theresa will be getting rid of Robbins. He's definitely part of the problem. Hammond as well, another virulent remainer.
0 -
If...SeanT said:
A new vote. And if the Commons won't agree this, then No Deal, and we Exit to WTO, and we don't pay £40bn, and Airbus leaves, and the rest.surby said:
Your £15 plonk is doing you no good. What is your solution ?SeanT said:
Why? One of the logical endpoints of Article 50 (agreed, post facto, by a Tory PM, despite promising us a vote) is that if ever leave we will leave in a way which severely damages us (i.e. we don't leave at all, or we leave and lose 10% GDP),Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe it was inevitable but if we go full on hard Brexit I will resignTorby_Fennel said:
Good for you. I honestly take no pleasure in seeing your party in such a state. I used to be a mainly Conservative voter myself until I switched to the Lib Dems and I still have a lot of respect for many of the Conservatives on the more liberal wing of the party. If I had to choose for one of the big two parties to implode/self-destruct it wouldn't be the Conservatives.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thank you - my party are in crisis and I will not support any hard Brexiteers
In the end this looks like a peoples vote is inevitable as is staying in
A fucking Tory prime minister, David Cameron, promised us a cast-iron guarantee of a vote on this Treaty, and Article 50, and then did sweet FA when he was in power. Fuck him. He is a traitor like Osborne and Blair and Brown and the rest. Burn them all. Heap up the pyres in Smithfield. As soon as he assumed power he could have demanded a new vote from the EU, and if rejected he could have done a De Gaulle and empty-chaired everything until they agreed.
He didn't.
Enuff. We were failed by all our leaders, left and right, Let them shrivel and die.
We will survive. THIS IS SPARTA.
Only it were.0 -
Well, it worked for Arthur Dent.surby said:
Their preferred deal is NO DEAL. They want to fall off the cliff because they believe as they fall, they will begin to fly to the promised land.fitalass said:
If that is their answer to the choice of an proven effective & competent Minister who might get the job down properly and deliver, then really are not serious about getting a workable deal.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
"Lewis Goodall
Verified account @lewis_goodall
55s55 seconds ago
Response from @IanLaveryMP , Chair of the Labour Party: "This is absolute chaos and Theresa May has no authority left. The Prime Minister is in office but not in power. We can't go on like this. Britain needs a functioning government."
"Lewis Goodall
If May is Thatcher, Olly Robbins is Alan Walters, Davis is Howe- then Sajid Javid is surely John Major. Watch him very closely in the next 48 hours."0 -
The Brexiteers subversion of a very narrow referendum win has done far more damage to democracy than the EU ever hasMaxPB said:
No, the EUphiles who are trying to subvert democracy, much like your own views.not_on_fire said:
Aka the realists.MaxPB said:One of the best things about dumping Theresa will be getting rid of Robbins. He's definitely part of the problem. Hammond as well, another virulent remainer.
0 -
Anyway, I have to go to work in 6 hours, so should probably sleep.
May is a goner.
Cabinet members who agreed on Friday and quit now cannot be trusted.
No replacement will magically erase the tories' problems.
No deal is the only game in town.
Corbyn will win the next election.0 -
Not sure what that's about.FrancisUrquhart said:What gone on here?
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1015891199129944064?s=210 -
You want a revolution?
Vote for revolutionaries.
Not chancers, incompetents and profiteers,0 -
"inevitable consequence of the proposed policies will be to make the supposed control by Parliament illusory rather than real"
Teetering on the brink of an epiphany etc etc0 -
Corbyn could not even decisively win the last local elections let alone the next general election and Corbyn's support for leaving the single market will start to see some Labour Remainers peel off to the LDs if the next Tory leader is a hard Brexiteerkle4 said:Anyway, I have to go to work in 6 hours, so should probably sleep.
May is a goner.
No replacement will magically erase the tories' problems.
No deal is the only game in town.
Corbyn will win the next election.0 -
I think if Javid resigns tomorrow on the basis of May breaking her word on EU migration then she falls and he becomes leader.0
-
Things have changed. The Tories are committing seppukku. Against a gutted opponent , Corbyn can win.HYUFD said:
Corbyn could not even decisively win the last local elections let alone the next general election and Corbyn's support for leaving the single market will start to see some Labour Remainers peel off to the LDs if the next Tory leader is a hard Brexiteerkle4 said:Anyway, I have to go to work in 6 hours, so should probably sleep.
May is a goner.
No replacement will magically erase the tories' problems.
No deal is the only game in town.
Corbyn will win the next election.0 -
I think they'll all rally round May and she'll see off the inevitable confidence vote.MaxPB said:I think if Javid resigns tomorrow on the basis of May breaking her word on EU migration then she falls and he becomes leader.
0 -
No, we're getting rid of our loser PM. Once the dust settles we'll be much better off.kle4 said:
Things have changed. The Tories are committing seppukku. Against a gutted opponent , Corbyn can win.HYUFD said:
Corbyn could not even decisively win the last local elections let alone the next general election and Corbyn's support for leaving the single market will start to see some Labour Remainers peel off to the LDs if the next Tory leader is a hard Brexiteerkle4 said:Anyway, I have to go to work in 6 hours, so should probably sleep.
May is a goner.
No replacement will magically erase the tories' problems.
No deal is the only game in town.
Corbyn will win the next election.0 -
And Sparta was a squalid tyranny, even by the standards of the ancient world. Perhaps the nearest any human society has come to Orwell’s Oceania.dixiedean said:
If...SeanT said:
A new vote. And if the Commons won't agree this, then No Deal, and we Exit to WTO, and we don't pay £40bn, and Airbus leaves, and the rest.surby said:
Your £15 plonk is doing you no good. What is your solution ?SeanT said:
Why? One of the logical endpoints of Article 50 (agreed, post facto, by a Tory PM, despite promising us a vote) is that if ever leave we will leave in a way which severely damages us (i.e. we don't leave at all, or we leave and lose 10% GDP),Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe it was inevitable but if we go full on hard Brexit I will resignTorby_Fennel said:
Good for you. I honestly take no pleasure in seeing your party in such a state. I used to be a mainly Conservative voter myself until I switched to the Lib Dems and I still have a lot of respect for many of the Conservatives on the more liberal wing of the party. If I had to choose for one of the big two parties to implode/self-destruct it wouldn't be the Conservatives.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thank you - my party are in crisis and I will not support any hard Brexiteers
In the end this looks like a peoples vote is inevitable as is staying in
A fucking Tory prime minister, David Cameron, promised us a cast-iron guarantee of a vote on this Treaty, and Article 50, and then did sweet FA when he was in power. Fuck him. He is a traitor like Osborne and Blair and Brown and the rest. Burn them all. Heap up the pyres in Smithfield. As soon as he assumed power he could have demanded a new vote from the EU, and if rejected he could have done a De Gaulle and empty-chaired everything until they agreed.
He didn't.
Enuff. We were failed by all our leaders, left and right, Let them shrivel and die.
We will survive. THIS IS SPARTA.
Only it were.
0 -
Nope. Labour is equally torn asunder and split top to bottom on Brexit.JohnO said:
Forget about what the polls say now, if there is another election because the Tories implode, Labour will win a comfortable majority, perhaps a landslide one. It really is as straightforward as that. Voters will not return a party that has torn itself asunder back to office.HYUFD said:
No as most Tory voters at the end of thekle4 said:
The Tories will be more immediately hit. Corbyn is as divided but he just needs to hold it toget her long enough for the tory implosion. They're screwed.HYUFD said:
Even now Corbyn is nowhere near a majority either and his party is divided on far more than just Brexitkle4 said:
I'd say no deal or remain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This actually makes leave much less likely and TM, to her credit, tried to agree a deal that would have a chance with the EU and the HOC. The end game will now be a Norway style deal or remainkjohnw said:
I really hope so, because with TM Brexit does not mean Brexit, her red lines are not red at all, she is a remainer in leave clothing, she has to go, she has betrayed the democratic will of the British peopleBig_G_NorthWales said:
I am not at all sure that it will be necessary. I think TM will resign as well triggering a leadership campaignHYUFD said:
That Boris statement must surely be a resignation statement if verified? In which case a confidence vote is very likely this week I would have thoughtwilliamglenn said:. Deleted as source not reliable.
The Tories are pretty fucked. Corbyn is laughing right now, he just has to watch them destroy any chance of winning the next election. His own inability to formuulate a policy on brexit doesn't even matter.
So long term Brexit screws Corbyn more than a hard Brexit backing Tory leader
Of course, that’s when Corbyn’s own problems will begin and his govt may meet the same fate.
I know you are a diehard Remainer who can't stand the fact most of your party's members and voters would rally behind a hard Brexit backing leader but there we are. Though I do agree if Corbyn gets in it will likely be scraping in propped up by minor parties trying to do his own Brexit fudge taking over where May left off and hammered on both sides by his pro EEA backbenchers and a hard Brexit backing Tory Leader of the Opposition0 -
The loser pm whose plan the cabinet just agreed.MaxPB said:
No, we're getting rid of our loser PM. Once the dust settles we'll be much better off.kle4 said:
Things have changed. The Tories are committing seppukku. Against a gutted opponent , Corbyn can win.HYUFD said:
Corbyn could not even decisively win the last local elections let alone the next general election and Corbyn's support for leaving the single market will start to see some Labour Remainers peel off to the LDs if the next Tory leader is a hard Brexiteerkle4 said:Anyway, I have to go to work in 6 hours, so should probably sleep.
May is a goner.
No replacement will magically erase the tories' problems.
No deal is the only game in town.
Corbyn will win the next election.0 -
No way. Every MP knows that if they back her she will dig in and run in 2022. She won't be allowed to do that, so in that basis alone she will lose a VoNC.williamglenn said:
I think they'll all rally round May and she'll see off the inevitable confidence vote.MaxPB said:I think if Javid resigns tomorrow on the basis of May breaking her word on EU migration then she falls and he becomes leader.
Javid as PM and Gove as chancellor, here we come.0 -
Quick question for the PB brain's trust:
Worst case scenario happens and government falls.
General election in August? (When I, and everyone else, is on holiday) Is that possible in 'modern' times, or would we have a long campaign to see us to September?0 -
0
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Yesterday's chip paper. Nobody who has read it can make sense of it. It's full of contradictions, holes and is unacceptable to the EU as it tries to divide the four freedoms.kle4 said:
The loser pm whose plan the cabinet just agreed.MaxPB said:
No, we're getting rid of our loser PM. Once the dust settles we'll be much better off.kle4 said:
Things have changed. The Tories are committing seppukku. Against a gutted opponent , Corbyn can win.HYUFD said:
Corbyn could not even decisively win the last local elections let alone the next general election and Corbyn's support for leaving the single market will start to see some Labour Remainers peel off to the LDs if the next Tory leader is a hard Brexiteerkle4 said:Anyway, I have to go to work in 6 hours, so should probably sleep.
May is a goner.
No replacement will magically erase the tories' problems.
No deal is the only game in town.
Corbyn will win the next election.0 -
She should appoint Liddington to DexEU, get her own supporters to write letters triggering an immeadiate Confidence vote then go on the attack. The years protection she gets under the rules after winnng a confidence vote will see her through Brexit Day.0
-
source?Big_G_NorthWales said:
She haskjohnw said:
if she puts a remainer in charge of DExEu she will find 48 letters tomorrow disagreeingRobD said:
We’ll see how he feels after six months of negotiationsAndyJS said:
They don't come much more pro-EU in the Tory party than David Lidington.archer101au said:
Oh God, she really is suicidal.houndtang said:David Lidington to replace Davis according to Telegraph Brexit bod Asa Bennett.
0 -
And then? What does he know that no one else does??MaxPB said:
No way. Every MP knows that if they back her she will dig in and run in 2022. She won't be allowed to do that, so in that basis alone she will lose a VoNC.williamglenn said:
I think they'll all rally round May and she'll see off the inevitable confidence vote.MaxPB said:I think if Javid resigns tomorrow on the basis of May breaking her word on EU migration then she falls and he becomes leader.
Javid as PM and Gove as chancellor, here we come.0 -
And to 2022, she won't win, which is why she won't do it. She's a loser, a proven one.YellowSubmarine said:She should appoint Liddington to DexEU, get her own supporters to write letters triggering an immeadiate Confidence vote then go on the attack. The years protection she gets under the rules after winnng a confidence vote will see her through Brexit Day.
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He 'could' have won last time too, he lostkle4 said:
Things have changed. The Tories are committing seppukku. Against a gutted opponent , Corbyn can win.HYUFD said:
Corbyn could not even decisively win the last local elections let alone the next general election and Corbyn's support for leaving the single market will start to see some Labour Remainers peel off to the LDs if the next Tory leader is a hard Brexiteerkle4 said:Anyway, I have to go to work in 6 hours, so should probably sleep.
May is a goner.
No replacement will magically erase the tories' problems.
No deal is the only game in town.
Corbyn will win the next election.0 -
How to negotiate his way out of a wet paper bag, for one.dixiedean said:
And then? What does he know that no one else does??MaxPB said:
No way. Every MP knows that if they back her she will dig in and run in 2022. She won't be allowed to do that, so in that basis alone she will lose a VoNC.williamglenn said:
I think they'll all rally round May and she'll see off the inevitable confidence vote.MaxPB said:I think if Javid resigns tomorrow on the basis of May breaking her word on EU migration then she falls and he becomes leader.
Javid as PM and Gove as chancellor, here we come.0 -
Look where it got us, another Labour Government with a big majority which delivered the last big EU Treaty...MaxPB said:
The other option was Ken Clark. I don't see that the members had a choice.fitalass said:
How soon we forget the last time we decided a Conservative Leader on those grounds, it delivered us IDS!0 -
The Tories gained 33 seats at the 2005 general election, 3 more than Corbyn gained at the 2017 general electionfitalass said:
Look where it got us, another Labour Government with a big majority which delivered the last big EU Treaty...MaxPB said:
The other option was Ken Clark. I don't see that the members had a choice.fitalass said:
How soon we forget the last time we decided a Conservative Leader on those grounds, it delivered us IDS!0 -
Anyhoo, "The Rise and Fall of the British Nation: A Twentieth Century History" by David Edgerton is now out. Those of you who buy hardbacks (I can't: shelf space) may like it. He's a Brexiteer but he Does The Research so I like him. Here's a review: https://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/books/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-british-nation-a-twentieth-century-history-by-david-edgerton-review-a3868486.html0
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From a historically extremely low starting position. And of course IDS had already been ditched by the time the 2005 GE happened.HYUFD said:
The Tories gained 33 seats at the 2005 general election, 3 more than Corbyn gained at the 2017 general electionfitalass said:
Look where it got us, another Labour Government with a big majority which delivered the last big EU Treaty...MaxPB said:
The other option was Ken Clark. I don't see that the members had a choice.fitalass said:
How soon we forget the last time we decided a Conservative Leader on those grounds, it delivered us IDS!0 -
Davis isn't enough on his own. You need at least Boris and Grayling to go - the two leaver cabinet ministers yet to make public statements post Chequers. But even then they are yesterday's men. Ideally an outrider for Javid. They need someone with a future ahead of them to resign to clear the way for Javid if this is to bring her down.
Only 11 days till parliamentry recess. It'll look farsical if MPs have to return to London to vote in a confidence vote after recess. And of course the Commons needs to be sitting to call an early election.0 -
I'll try and borrow it from the library.viewcode said:Anyhoo, "The Rise and Fall of the British Nation: A Twentieth Century History" by David Edgerton is now out. Those of you who buy hardbacks (I can't: shelf space) may like it. He's a Brexiteer but he Does The Research so I like him. Here's a review: https://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/books/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-british-nation-a-twentieth-century-history-by-david-edgerton-review-a3868486.html
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Which demographics do we reckon are still around? I guess it would reward whatever party is enthusiastic and organized, as you can work around it with proxy votes etcTheValiant said:(When I, and everyone else, is on holiday)
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And those 33 seats took us to the grand total of 198 seats while Labour held 355 and the Libdems 62, still leaving us in a far weaker position than Labour seat wise in Opposition. Cameron and Osborne were left with a mountain to climb to achieve a majority, and that is why it took two GE's to achieve one that delivered that EU Referendum.HYUFD said:
The Tories gained 33 seats at the 2005 general election, 3 more than Corbyn gained at the 2017 general electionfitalass said:
Look where it got us, another Labour Government with a big majority which delivered the last big EU Treaty...MaxPB said:
The other option was Ken Clark. I don't see that the members had a choice.fitalass said:
How soon we forget the last time we decided a Conservative Leader on those grounds, it delivered us IDS!0 -
The Tories under IDS were polling about the same as Howard got in 2005 when IDS was ousted, if anything slightly highernot_on_fire said:
From a historically extremely low starting position. And of course IDS had already been ditched by the time the 2005 GE happened.HYUFD said:
The Tories gained 33 seats at the 2005 general election, 3 more than Corbyn gained at the 2017 general electionfitalass said:
Look where it got us, another Labour Government with a big majority which delivered the last big EU Treaty...MaxPB said:
The other option was Ken Clark. I don't see that the members had a choice.fitalass said:
How soon we forget the last time we decided a Conservative Leader on those grounds, it delivered us IDS!0 -
THere will be no election until Corbyn's government falls after a No confidence vote.TheValiant said:Quick question for the PB brain's trust:
Worst case scenario happens and government falls.
General election in August? (When I, and everyone else, is on holiday) Is that possible in 'modern' times, or would we have a long campaign to see us to September?0 -
I propose that we go to bed. I have a plane to catch at 7:30. Taxi is coming at 5:30. So goodnight.0
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Not Aston taxis I hope?surby said:I propose that we go to bed. I have a plane to catch at 7:30. Taxi is coming at 5:30. So goodnight.
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... in the confident expectation that her normal stardust of success would, when sprinkled on the polished turd, make it clearly even more absurd and impossible than it already was.kle4 said:
The loser pm whose plan the cabinet just agreed.MaxPB said:
No, we're getting rid of our loser PM. Once the dust settles we'll be much better off.kle4 said:
Things have changed. The Tories are committing seppukku. Against a gutted opponent , Corbyn can win.HYUFD said:
Corbyn could not even decisively win the last local elections let alone the next general election and Corbyn's support for leaving the single market will start to see some Labour Remainers peel off to the LDs if the next Tory leader is a hard Brexiteerkle4 said:Anyway, I have to go to work in 6 hours, so should probably sleep.
May is a goner.
No replacement will magically erase the tories' problems.
No deal is the only game in town.
Corbyn will win the next election.
When No 10 briefed out the line that resigning ministers would have to get the taxi home, I thought that it was stupid. You don't bait your own team when you want them to support you. It's not strength, its desperation. Anyway, any sensible minister would wait to get home before resigning.0 -
Agreed. Right now it looks very much like a Brexit department walk out, which considering the relentless negative Westminster Lobby media coverage is hardly going to come as a surprise to the public. Tomorrow's meeting of the Westminster Conservative party is going to be the key to what unfolds this week. Setting aside the uber Brexit and Remain MPs for a moment, while they may be the continued fly in the ointment to the Government getting an acceptable and workable Brexit deal through Parliament. No, more importantly, they are not the ones who will decide May's continued future as Leader and PM and therefore the probable date of the next GE, until at least Brexit is achieved...YellowSubmarine said:Davis isn't enough on his own. You need at least Boris and Grayling to go - the two leaver cabinet ministers yet to make public statements post Chequers. But even then they are yesterday's men. Ideally an outrider for Javid. They need someone with a future ahead of them to resign to clear the way for Javid if this is to bring her down.
Only 11 days till parliamentry recess. It'll look farsical if MPs have to return to London to vote in a confidence vote after recess. And of course the Commons needs to be sitting to call an early election.
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As well as a Cambridge PhD Liddington was part of the winning 1979 university challenge team.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hoorah for a Sidney old boy.houndtang said:David Lidington to replace Davis according to Telegraph Brexit bod Asa Bennett.
He should be more than an intellectual match for Barnier and if anyone can sell the Great May Brexit Fudge to the EU he probably can0 -
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And look at the comments underneath, especially the third one that takes on each of TM's points.fitalass said:
I suspect that most party members will agree with DD's letter more than May's.0 -
May looks like my grandmother did at her open casket funeral in that picture.fitalass said:0 -
Conservative voters are more than Conservative members. Although nihilists like Mogg and Brigden seem to prefer virginal purity.ExiledInScotland said:
And look at the comments underneath, especially the third one that takes on each of TM's points.fitalass said:
I suspect that most party members will agree with DD's letter more than May's.0 -
I would have said that ConservativeHome's regulars would have been reasonable representative of the party members up to about ten years ago, but not now. I was a regular commentator on the site back in those days, used to regularly take part in their polls back then too. But its been many years since I have bothered to interact in the comments threads. I left when the site's comments threads turned into a grumpy angry UKIP forum. I sourced this link to May's response to the Davis resignation letter via twitter.ExiledInScotland said:
And look at the comments underneath, especially the third one that takes on each of TM's points.fitalass said:
I suspect that most party members will agree with DD's letter more than May's.0
This discussion has been closed.