Ah, so he's resigning under the 'I'm an idiot' defence? In that I assume he is resigning over the proposed May deal, yet he was publicly stated to have been in favour of it 2 days ago, and apparently didn't realise what it was he had agreed to?
The more important question is what Civil War era figure he is analgous to.
Hmm. Blustering and ineffective figure, ostensibly leading the fight but not as talented as underlings and his heart didn't seem to be in it. Manchester? I don't recall much about him to be honest.
Robert Morley played Manchester brilliantly in Richard Harris' Cromwell
Have you all watched @rcs1000 latest video - essential.
Yes, very good again. What I am not entirely sure I get is what the imputed rent is a measure of. Is it the income benefit I get from being in my house or is it what I should expect in capital appreciation? I suppose using the share analogy should I be looking at the dividend yield or the capital appreciation?
If I apply 4.4% compound to what I paid for the house 26 years ago I come out at a capital value very close to what it is worth (ignoring the cost of the conservatory etc) at least in nominal terms (in real terms it has been a poor investment) but should I really be thinking that the house has been worth that putative yield to my income, so that if my costs have been less than that then I have made a profit or should I be looking solely at the capital value?
Whilst the rental return gives an idea of what the asset should be worth if it is let out I am not entirely convinced that it works for owner occupation. The house may allow my children to attend a good state school, for example, making it more valuable to me when my children are young. I also think using the share analogy that anyone who bought in Hampstead 26 years ago will have massively exceeded a 4.4% return, even in capital values.
I'm going to do another video on imputed rent, simply because I came up with so much material on it when I was doing this video.
Did you know that in Switzerland, you need to declare imputed rent as income, and you pay tax on it? (And that was the case in the UK too until about 1968.)
Ah, so he's resigning under the 'I'm an idiot' defence? In that I assume he is resigning over the proposed May deal, yet he was publicly stated to have been in favour of it 2 days ago, and apparently didn't realise what it was he had agreed to?
The more important question is what Civil War era figure he is analgous to.
Hmm. Blustering and ineffective figure, ostensibly leading the fight but not as talented as underlings and his heart didn't seem to be in it. Manchester? I don't recall much about him to be honest.
Robert Morley played Manchester brilliantly in Richard Harris' Cromwell
- Fall in with the hard Brexit mob - Say that Brexit can't be done
If it's the latter, then May will be the mistress of all she surveys.
It will definitely be the former, this is clearly calculated to shift Davis ahead of Boris and Gove as the non Mogg hard Brexit candidate to succeed May as Tory leader and PM
Perhaps George Osborne is Charles II - the natural successor to Charles I who was dismissed with ease and fled, only he will return years down the line when the system collapses, with the help of a figure who was both an ally then an enemy of his cause.
One problem, Charles IInd was popular and likeable.
Chuka Umunna is probably more likely
Who knows how popular Osborne might be to the dystopic times we may find ourselves in.
At the moment he is about as popular as a used turd but you never know I suppose
- Fall in with the hard Brexit mob - Say that Brexit can't be done
If it's the latter, then May will be the mistress of all she surveys.
It will definitely be the former, this is clearly calculated to shift Davis ahead of Boris and Gove as the non Mogg hard Brexit candidate to succeed May as Tory leader and PM
Stupid idea. He agreed to it! What's he going to say? 'Yeah, I agreed to this terrible deal, but you can count on me to know the right path now, guys and gals'
How could a Hard Brexiteer believe a word he says about believing in a Hard Brexit after the Chequers meeting? That, at least, was a genius part of May's maneuvering. If he is resigning a point of principle about the government's Brexit path, how does he square that with agreeing to it not two days ago?
Only one way - the idiot defence. Which also does not help his chances.
Have you all watched @rcs1000 latest video - essential.
Yes, very good again. What I am not entirely sure I get is what the imputed rent is a measure of. Is it the income benefit I get from being in my house or is it what I should expect in capital appreciation? I suppose using the share analogy should I be looking at the dividend yield or the capital appreciation?
If I apply 4.4% compound to what I paid for the house 26 years ago I come out at a capital value very close to what it is worth (ignoring the cost of the conservatory etc) at least in nominal terms (in real terms it has been a poor investment) but should I really be thinking that the house has been worth that putative yield to my income, so that if my costs have been less than that then I have made a profit or should I be looking solely at the capital value?
Whilst the rental return gives an idea of what the asset should be worth if it is let out I am not entirely convinced that it works for owner occupation. The house may allow my children to attend a good state school, for example, making it more valuable to me when my children are young. I also think using the share analogy that anyone who bought in Hampstead 26 years ago will have massively exceeded a 4.4% return, even in capital values.
I'm going to do another video on imputed rent, simply because I came up with so much material on it when I was doing this video.
Did you know that in Switzerland, you need to declare imputed rent as income, and you pay tax on it? (And that was the case in the UK too until about 1968.)
Who the hell resigns at midnight on a Sunday night?
Someone who wants to lead the Today programme, the late editions of the papers and all the morning news bulletins and set the agenda for the whole week
- Fall in with the hard Brexit mob - Say that Brexit can't be done
If it's the latter, then May will be the mistress of all she surveys.
It will definitely be the former, this is clearly calculated to shift Davis ahead of Boris and Gove as the non Mogg hard Brexit candidate to succeed May as Tory leader and PM
He has hardly set the heather of fire in his Brexit brief, why on earth would he be any use as party Leader or PM in No10? What ever the question, he ain't the answer.
Hopefully this means the letters will be in before the end of tomorrow and the confidence vote will be on Tuesday and not clash with the England match. Well done David Davis.
If even united Cabinet agreement cannot stop a proposal from unravelling, then what the hell good was it?
I guess the only question is if the rebels wait to see if the EU will reject first before they pull the trigger. If the EU does then they have 2 reasons to call a vote - that her proposal was unacceptable and it was stupid anyway - and if the EU looks receptive they can still push ahead on the basis that it is unacceptable.
I am coming to the conclusion that we need a second vote. But it should be, again, Leave or Remain.
If the result is remain 52:48, then what? A third vote?
We accept whatever it says, which by definition (I think) will be a pretty hard Brexit or a pretty hard Remain.
Right now this is like the shape of England after the Civil War being decided by a bunch of mediocre, careerist lawyers on a ketamine bender. At least in the Civil Wars they had the Putney Debates to decide what KIND of England they wanted after they killed the king.
That's what we need. The PUTNEY DEBATES 2.0. Then another vote. And end.
As I recall the Civil War had two phases.....
The Putney Debates happened before the decision to kill the king was taken (some of those arguing against being harsher with him ended up being the ones taking that decision) and they sure hadn't agreed on what kind of England they wanted after the King was killed (hence the multiple attempts at constitutions/offerings of the crown/direct military rule etc), and the Civil War had more than two phases, even if we only focus on the English parts of the whole conflict.
Theresa May as Thomas Fairfax? Leading the armies but not politically in control, to be overtaken by more driven and passionate underlings? Michael Gove as John Lambert? Able and intelligent, but never able to put his ideas fully into practice, shifting allegiances and making one last play for the top job only to fail? Boris Johnson as George Monck? Fought on one side, then the other, then remained aloof until a final confrontation in bringing things back full circle to where it all began?
(for any historians, these comparisons are not serious)
So who is Cromwell?
James Cromwell? "I wouldn't trade places with Edmund Exley right now for all the whiskey in Ireland!"
Ah, so he's resigning under the 'I'm an idiot' defence? In that I assume he is resigning over the proposed May deal, yet he was publicly stated to have been in favour of it 2 days ago, and apparently didn't realise what it was he had agreed to?
The more important question is what Civil War era figure he is analgous to.
Hmm. Blustering and ineffective figure, ostensibly leading the fight but not as talented as underlings and his heart didn't seem to be in it. Manchester? I don't recall much about him to be honest.
Robert Morley played Manchester brilliantly in Richard Harris' Cromwell
Embarrassingly I have never seen it.
It is well worth a watch, it is often on a Saturday or Sunday afternoon on BBC2 or C4
Have you all watched @rcs1000 latest video - essential.
Yes, very good again. What I am not entirely sure I get is what the imputed rent is a measure of. Is it the income benefit I get from being in my house or is it what I should expect in capital appreciation? I suppose using the share analogy should I be looking at the dividend yield or the capital appreciation?
If I apply 4.4% compound to what I paid for the house 26 years ago I come out at a capital value very close to what it is worth (ignoring the cost of the conservatory etc) at least in nominal terms (in real terms it has been a poor investment) but should I really be thinking that the house has been worth that putative yield to my income, so that if my costs have been less than that then I have made a profit or should I be looking solely at the capital value?
Whilst the rental return gives an idea of what the asset should be worth if it is let out I am not entirely convinced that it works for owner occupation. The house may allow my children to attend a good state school, for example, making it more valuable to me when my children are young. I also think using the share analogy that anyone who bought in Hampstead 26 years ago will have massively exceeded a 4.4% return, even in capital values.
I'm going to do another video on imputed rent, simply because I came up with so much material on it when I was doing this video.
Did you know that in Switzerland, you need to declare imputed rent as income, and you pay tax on it? (And that was the case in the UK too until about 1968.)
I remember the day May appointed Davis. I said to my wife that this pretty much guaranteed a real Brexit because Davis is a man of principle and would never preside over a sellout. He has tested my faith considerably! But I think that he felt that up to now, it was better to stay and fight.
He quite reasonably has decided that there is now no point in fighting from the inside because May will not listen to the Leavers at all.
Hilarious to see the Remainers immediately try to spin this as good for May/Davis is irrelevant etc. When the Minister for Brexit resigns because your Brexit means Remain, you are in big trouble.
Well done DD. You fought May with passion and integrity and did your duty to your country. Good man.
Almost exactly 10 years since the by-election that David Davis caused in Haltemprice and Howden, which was held on 10th July 2008. (I can't believe it was that long ago).
There was a fascinating example of how NYT have lost touch with what I would call real America. They send a reporter to interview a husband and wife in Ohio who were Trump voters, are very poor and received a grant from a federal programme for home improvements, which Trump has said isn't a good use of public money.
They obviously think they are going to get an angry reaction from the couple, hopefully with them ranting that Trump has sold them out, but the reporter is clearly shocked and confused when they say, actually if that is what is required to balance a budget / improve the state of US economy, so be it.
Anybody who knows middle America will understand that isn't because they support Trump, it is why Trump's shtick resonates in the first place.
Like him or loathe him, Trump is highly intelligent. He went to Wharton. But really he is a New York real estate wheeler dealer. He should be taken seriously, but not literally. He is not a politician, and is results oriented. Don't get hung up on the untruths he mouths.
Do we know his grades at Wharton? Plenty of rich kids get into American colleges thanks to donations from Daddy.
As for doing this stuff to balance the budget, that's a laugh when Trump has brought in trillion dollar deficits thanks to his tax cuts for the 1%.
- Fall in with the hard Brexit mob - Say that Brexit can't be done
If it's the latter, then May will be the mistress of all she surveys.
It will definitely be the former, this is clearly calculated to shift Davis ahead of Boris and Gove as the non Mogg hard Brexit candidate to succeed May as Tory leader and PM
He has hardly set the heather of fire in his Brexit brief, why on earth would he be any use as party Leader or PM in No10? What ever the question, he ain't the answer.
To be honest all Tory Leavers want is someone who was in the Cabinet and a Brexiteer to oppose this deal, given Boris or Gove clearly would not and Mogg was not in the Cabinet Davis it would then have to be.
To be fair to Davis he polled about as well as May v Corbyn in a Survation poll last summer and that was before May's largely BINO deal
Ah, so he's resigning under the 'I'm an idiot' defence? In that I assume he is resigning over the proposed May deal, yet he was publicly stated to have been in favour of it 2 days ago, and apparently didn't realise what it was he had agreed to?
The more important question is what Civil War era figure he is analgous to.
Hmm. Blustering and ineffective figure, ostensibly leading the fight but not as talented as underlings and his heart didn't seem to be in it. Manchester? I don't recall much about him to be honest.
Robert Morley played Manchester brilliantly in Richard Harris' Cromwell
Embarrassingly I have never seen it.
Sadly not available for free on YouTube but this review of it looks good:
I think we'll find he'll say he didn't wish to disrupt the Prime Minister's meeting, wanted to consider the package with time for mature reflection, etc. But it makes no sense unless he plans to lead a leadership assault. And if he does, will Boris be far behind? We can't complain that this Government is dull, can we?
The obvious replacement is Gove - generally acknowledged to be competent, came out fighting for the package yesterday, but an arch-Brexiteer. It'd be a shame for us environment/animal people as we want him exactly where he is now, but the logic looks compelling.
- Fall in with the hard Brexit mob - Say that Brexit can't be done
If it's the latter, then May will be the mistress of all she surveys.
It will definitely be the former, this is clearly calculated to shift Davis ahead of Boris and Gove as the non Mogg hard Brexit candidate to succeed May as Tory leader and PM
Stupid idea. He agreed to it! What's he going to say? 'Yeah, I agreed to this terrible deal, but you can count on me to know the right path now, guys and gals'
How could a Hard Brexiteer believe a word he says about believing in a Hard Brexit after the Chequers meeting? That, at least, was a genius part of May's maneuvering. If he is resigning a point of principle about the government's Brexit path, how does he square that with agreeing to it not two days ago?
Only one way - the idiot defence. Which also does not help his chances.
To be fair to Davis he was compelled to either agree on the spot or resign based on the broad principles. He's now had the weekend to read the full specific details of the white paper he's now supposed to be responsible for. Wouldn't surprise me if he's seen something in the white paper now he can't agree to.
Whether you voted remain or leave, it's tricky to argue that David Davis wasn't shat all over by Barnier.
Davis was shat all over by Theresa May and Oliver Robbins.
How could he ever have a genuine "negotiation" when May and Robbins were selling out at every turn?
His resignation speech could be dynamite.
Yes, his explanation of how it was such an obviously terrible deal he could not stay in post and keep his honour, and yet he plain didn't notice how terrible it was before the weekend, will be pretty interesting.
It's the same as when Carswell jumped ship and claimed all manner of things which had driven him to it, none of which had prevented him from defending any number of things he was then claiming he did not support.
- Fall in with the hard Brexit mob - Say that Brexit can't be done
If it's the latter, then May will be the mistress of all she surveys.
It will definitely be the former, this is clearly calculated to shift Davis ahead of Boris and Gove as the non Mogg hard Brexit candidate to succeed May as Tory leader and PM
Stupid idea. He agreed to it! What's he going to say? 'Yeah, I agreed to this terrible deal, but you can count on me to know the right path now, guys and gals'
How could a Hard Brexiteer believe a word he says about believing in a Hard Brexit after the Chequers meeting? That, at least, was a genius part of May's maneuvering. If he is resigning a point of principle about the government's Brexit path, how does he square that with agreeing to it not two days ago?
Only one way - the idiot defence. Which also does not help his chances.
He will probably say, I agreed it in principle UNTIL I read the detail, or similar
July 5 edited July 5 It will all look different in 24hrs. A cabinet united around a great new plan, with May leading the nation into a new chapter of its history.
Mind you by Sunday, it will be back to BAU.
Enjoy the rickety rollercoaster, that is modern UK politics.
There was a fascinating example of how NYT have lost touch with what I would call real America. They send a reporter to interview a husband and wife in Ohio who were Trump voters, are very poor and received a grant from a federal programme for home improvements, which Trump has said isn't a good use of public money.
They obviously think they are going to get an angry reaction from the couple, hopefully with them ranting that Trump has sold them out, but the reporter is clearly shocked and confused when they say, actually if that is what is required to balance a budget / improve the state of US economy, so be it.
Anybody who knows middle America will understand that isn't because they support Trump, it is why Trump's shtick resonates in the first place.
Like him or loathe him, Trump is highly intelligent. He went to Wharton. But really he is a New York real estate wheeler dealer. He should be taken seriously, but not literally. He is not a politician, and is results oriented. Don't get hung up on the untruths he mouths.
Many of the reports I've read from Stateside, indicate that Trump is highly belligerent, but no one has ever mentioned his peers thought he was intelligent or smart. As for Wharton, when Daddy pays the bills and the teachers seemingly passed him each year so as to get him out of their classes. Nope, he is the real wheeler shyster with a couple of bankrupt casino's, an airline, vodka and several other businesses leaving many small businesses to suffer cash crises as he shafted them. Hell, even the Cosa Nostra had to go straight they were making so much money from their casinos.
- Fall in with the hard Brexit mob - Say that Brexit can't be done
If it's the latter, then May will be the mistress of all she surveys.
It will definitely be the former, this is clearly calculated to shift Davis ahead of Boris and Gove as the non Mogg hard Brexit candidate to succeed May as Tory leader and PM
Stupid idea. He agreed to it! What's he going to say? 'Yeah, I agreed to this terrible deal, but you can count on me to know the right path now, guys and gals'
How could a Hard Brexiteer believe a word he says about believing in a Hard Brexit after the Chequers meeting? That, at least, was a genius part of May's maneuvering. If he is resigning a point of principle about the government's Brexit path, how does he square that with agreeing to it not two days ago?
Only one way - the idiot defence. Which also does not help his chances.
He will probably say, I agreed it in principle UNTIL I read the detail, or similar
He could even claim that may misrepresented some portion of it during the away day, especially is some others go with him...all claiming that the detail isn’t as was outlined during the discussion.
- Fall in with the hard Brexit mob - Say that Brexit can't be done
If it's the latter, then May will be the mistress of all she surveys.
It will definitely be the former, this is clearly calculated to shift Davis ahead of Boris and Gove as the non Mogg hard Brexit candidate to succeed May as Tory leader and PM
Stupid idea. He agreed to it! What's he going to say? 'Yeah, I agreed to this terrible deal, but you can count on me to know the right path now, guys and gals'
How could a Hard Brexiteer believe a word he says about believing in a Hard Brexit after the Chequers meeting? That, at least, was a genius part of May's maneuvering. If he is resigning a point of principle about the government's Brexit path, how does he square that with agreeing to it not two days ago?
Only one way - the idiot defence. Which also does not help his chances.
To be fair to Davis he was compelled to either agree on the spot or resign based on the broad principles. He's now had the weekend to read the full specific details of the white paper he's now supposed to be responsible for. Wouldn't surprise me if he's seen something in the white paper now he can't agree to.
A faint excuse, but that's all I think. The immediate quotes about honouring manifesto promises make it seem that his resignation is a matter of broad principles, therefore it should have been perfectly clear if the principles of the May plan were acceptable or not. Being put on the spot is not much an excuse.
Seems to me he was probably not very happy about the plan, but had no alternative that could secure agreement around the table, and was too gutless to resign. Since then he's realised that the rank and file are even less satisfied than he expected, so it's time to get out and save himself after all.
- Fall in with the hard Brexit mob - Say that Brexit can't be done
If it's the latter, then May will be the mistress of all she surveys.
It will definitely be the former, this is clearly calculated to shift Davis ahead of Boris and Gove as the non Mogg hard Brexit candidate to succeed May as Tory leader and PM
Stupid idea. He agreed to it! What's he going to say? 'Yeah, I agreed to this terrible deal, but you can count on me to know the right path now, guys and gals'
How could a Hard Brexiteer believe a word he says about believing in a Hard Brexit after the Chequers meeting? That, at least, was a genius part of May's maneuvering. If he is resigning a point of principle about the government's Brexit path, how does he square that with agreeing to it not two days ago?
Only one way - the idiot defence. Which also does not help his chances.
To be fair to Davis he was compelled to either agree on the spot or resign based on the broad principles. He's now had the weekend to read the full specific details of the white paper he's now supposed to be responsible for. Wouldn't surprise me if he's seen something in the white paper now he can't agree to.
I doubt May and Robbins had even given him the courtesy (you know as the nominal Brexit secretary) of letting him see the white paper before the Chequers meeting.
He was probably as in the dark as anyone as to what it was going to say.
- Fall in with the hard Brexit mob - Say that Brexit can't be done
If it's the latter, then May will be the mistress of all she surveys.
It will definitely be the former, this is clearly calculated to shift Davis ahead of Boris and Gove as the non Mogg hard Brexit candidate to succeed May as Tory leader and PM
Stupid idea. He agreed to it! What's he going to say? 'Yeah, I agreed to this terrible deal, but you can count on me to know the right path now, guys and gals'
How could a Hard Brexiteer believe a word he says about believing in a Hard Brexit after the Chequers meeting? That, at least, was a genius part of May's maneuvering. If he is resigning a point of principle about the government's Brexit path, how does he square that with agreeing to it not two days ago?
Only one way - the idiot defence. Which also does not help his chances.
He will probably say, I agreed it in principle UNTIL I read the detail, or similar
This is a waste of effort argument. He is going to say he was isolated at the meeting, it was obvious that the vast majority of cabinet was in favour but he made his objections clear and that after reflection he could no longer abide by collective responsibility.
He did not make a statement saying he agreed with this deal so he hardly is going to have to defend a U-turn.
I think we'll find he'll say he didn't wish to disrupt the Prime Minister's meeting, wanted to consider the package with time for mature reflection, etc. But it makes no sense unless he plans to lead a leadership assault. And if he does, will Boris be far behind? We can't complain that this Government is dull, can we?
The obvious replacement is Gove - generally acknowledged to be competent, came out fighting for the package yesterday, but an arch-Brexiteer. It'd be a shame for us environment/animal people as we want him exactly where he is now, but the logic looks compelling.
Gove is dead in the water as next leader, I have not read one positive comment on him from Tory Leavers after his Marr interview this morning, they already consider him Judas. However Gove would be credible as next Brexit Secretary, agreed.
Davis has now jumped alongside Mogg as the prime alternative to May Brexit, Boris now has 48 hours to decide whether to join them or be lumped forever alongside the rest of the Cabinet to live and die with May's Brexit plan
July 5 edited July 5 It will all look different in 24hrs. A cabinet united around a great new plan, with May leading the nation into a new chapter of its history.
Mind you by Sunday, it will be back to BAU.
Enjoy the rickety rollercoaster, that is modern UK politics.
Perhaps George Osborne is Charles II - the natural successor to Charles I who was dismissed with ease and fled, only he will return years down the line when the system collapses, with the help of a figure who was both an ally then an enemy of his cause.
One problem, Charles IInd was popular and likeable.
Chuka Umunna is probably more likely
Who knows how popular Osborne might be to the dystopic times we may find ourselves in.
At the moment he is about as popular as a used turd but you never know I suppose
I think we'll find he'll say he didn't wish to disrupt the Prime Minister's meeting, wanted to consider the package with time for mature reflection, etc. But it makes no sense unless he plans to lead a leadership assault. And if he does, will Boris be far behind? We can't complain that this Government is dull, can we?
The obvious replacement is Gove - generally acknowledged to be competent, came out fighting for the package yesterday, but an arch-Brexiteer. It'd be a shame for us environment/animal people as we want him exactly where he is now, but the logic looks compelling.
Gove is dead in the water as next leader, I have not read one positive comment on him from Tory Leavers after his Marr interview this morning, they already consider him Judas. However Gove would be credible as next Brexit Secretary, agreed.
Davis has now jumped alongside Mogg as the prime alternative to May Brexit, Boris now has 48 hours to decide whether to join them or be lumped forever to live and die with May's Brexit plan
- Fall in with the hard Brexit mob - Say that Brexit can't be done
If it's the latter, then May will be the mistress of all she surveys.
It will definitely be the former, this is clearly calculated to shift Davis ahead of Boris and Gove as the non Mogg hard Brexit candidate to succeed May as Tory leader and PM
Stupid idea. He agreed to it! What's he going to say? 'Yeah, I agreed to this terrible deal, but you can count on me to know the right path now, guys and gals'
How could a Hard Brexiteer believe a word he says about believing in a Hard Brexit after the Chequers meeting? That, at least, was a genius part of May's maneuvering. If he is resigning a point of principle about the government's Brexit path, how does he square that with agreeing to it not two days ago?
Only one way - the idiot defence. Which also does not help his chances.
He will probably say, I agreed it in principle UNTIL I read the detail, or similar
Ah, the hasty idiot defence.
Night all.
Fail to see how this does not lead to a challenge against the PM. Can she win? Probably. Will the ERG crowd back her plan if she does? I don't see how they could. Can it get through with Lab support? I don't see why they would do that.
If Suella Braverman goes then we truly are without hope.
I assume Braverman and Baker will go with him?
Don't worry, May can appoint Clarke, Grieve and Soubry to staff the Brexit department!
On a serious note, who can she appoint? She will look ridiculous if she appoints Remainers and not sure any Leaver would take the job (or would look utterly ridiculous if they did).
I suspect she will abolish the whole Department. Which will make no deal planning somewhat more difficult.
Perhaps George Osborne is Charles II - the natural successor to Charles I who was dismissed with ease and fled, only he will return years down the line when the system collapses, with the help of a figure who was both an ally then an enemy of his cause.
One problem, Charles IInd was popular and likeable.
Chuka Umunna is probably more likely
Who knows how popular Osborne might be to the dystopic times we may find ourselves in.
Word in the Scottish press is that Salmond is working his old Banff and Buchan constituency to get elected to Westminster, yet again, at the next GE....
- Fall in with the hard Brexit mob - Say that Brexit can't be done
If it's the latter, then May will be the mistress of all she surveys.
It will definitely be the former, this is clearly calculated to shift Davis ahead of Boris and Gove as the non Mogg hard Brexit candidate to succeed May as Tory leader and PM
Stupid idea. He agreed to it! What's he going to say? 'Yeah, I agreed to this terrible deal, but you can count on me to know the right path now, guys and gals'
How could a Hard Brexiteer believe a word he says about believing in a Hard Brexit after the Chequers meeting? That, at least, was a genius part of May's maneuvering. If he is resigning a point of principle about the government's Brexit path, how does he square that with agreeing to it not two days ago?
Only one way - the idiot defence. Which also does not help his chances.
He will probably say, I agreed it in principle UNTIL I read the detail, or similar
This is a waste of effort argument. He is going to say he was isolated at the meeting, it was obvious that the vast majority of cabinet was in favour but he made his objections clear and that after reflection he could no longer abide by collective responsibility.
He did not make a statement saying he agreed with this deal so he hardly is going to have to defend a U-turn.
This is being very poorly covered. Film programme followed by Newsday from Thailand on BBC 24. Recorded interview with Jess Phillips on abortion on R5L. Does no-one do live news? And, no, I won't pay for SKY.
David Davis has always struck me as a bit of a lone maverick after resigning in 2008. Is it possible that this rebellion could be contained by May? Will Boris be writing two articles overnight? He won't want to be on the wrong side of the tide on this one.
I think we'll find he'll say he didn't wish to disrupt the Prime Minister's meeting, wanted to consider the package with time for mature reflection, etc. But it makes no sense unless he plans to lead a leadership assault. And if he does, will Boris be far behind? We can't complain that this Government is dull, can we?
The obvious replacement is Gove - generally acknowledged to be competent, came out fighting for the package yesterday, but an arch-Brexiteer. It'd be a shame for us environment/animal people as we want him exactly where he is now, but the logic looks compelling.
Gove is dead in the water, I have not read one positive comment on him from Tory Leavers after his Marr interview this morning, they already consider him Judas.
Davis has now jumped alongside Mogg as the prime alternative to May Brexit, Boris now has 48 hours to decide whether to join them or be lumped forever to live and die with May's Brexit plan
You all thought that May was the Brexit dream ticket when Cameron resigned.. Seriously, Davis was given the key Brexit brief and simple has not delivered, leaving it to others to come up with a workable deal. It no use just sticking someone who supports a hard Brexit in No 10, they have to be competent and at least able to bring the party together. Both Boris and Davis have failed to deliver in their current jobs, time to find a couple of politicians who can do the job.
I think we'll find he'll say he didn't wish to disrupt the Prime Minister's meeting, wanted to consider the package with time for mature reflection, etc. But it makes no sense unless he plans to lead a leadership assault. And if he does, will Boris be far behind? We can't complain that this Government is dull, can we?
The obvious replacement is Gove - generally acknowledged to be competent, came out fighting for the package yesterday, but an arch-Brexiteer. It'd be a shame for us environment/animal people as we want him exactly where he is now, but the logic looks compelling.
Gove is dead in the water as next leader, I have not read one positive comment on him from Tory Leavers after his Marr interview this morning, they already consider him Judas. However Gove would be credible as next Brexit Secretary, agreed.
Davis has now jumped alongside Mogg as the prime alternative to May Brexit, Boris now has 48 hours to decide whether to join them or be lumped forever alongside the rest of the Cabinet to live and die with May's Brexit plan
Wow, the World really has changed. I agree with EVERY word of an HYUFD post. Shocked, I tell you!
There was a fascinating example of how NYT have lost touch with what I would call real America. They send a reporter to interview a husband and wife in Ohio who were Trump voters, are very poor and received a grant from a federal programme for home improvements, which Trump has said isn't a good use of public money.
They obviously think they are going to get an angry reaction from the couple, hopefully with them ranting that Trump has sold them out, but the reporter is clearly shocked and confused when they say, actually if that is what is required to balance a budget / improve the state of US economy, so be it.
Anybody who knows middle America will understand that isn't because they support Trump, it is why Trump's shtick resonates in the first place.
Like him or loathe him, Trump is highly intelligent. He went to Wharton. But really he is a New York real estate wheeler dealer. He should be taken seriously, but not literally. He is not a politician, and is results oriented. Don't get hung up on the untruths he mouths.
Many of the reports I've read from Stateside, indicate that Trump is highly belligerent, but no one has ever mentioned his peers thought he was intelligent or smart. As for Wharton, when Daddy pays the bills and the teachers seemingly passed him each year so as to get him out of their classes. Nope, he is the real wheeler shyster with a couple of bankrupt casino's, an airline, vodka and several other businesses leaving many small businesses to suffer cash crises as he shafted them. Hell, even the Cosa Nostra had to go straight they were making so much money from their casinos.
I saw a video of a George W Bush speech today and I have to say he seemed surprisingly articulate next to Trump, Trump knows how to work a crowd, strike a deal and make a buck, an intellectual though he is not
- Fall in with the hard Brexit mob - Say that Brexit can't be done
If it's the latter, then May will be the mistress of all she surveys.
It will definitely be the former, this is clearly calculated to shift Davis ahead of Boris and Gove as the non Mogg hard Brexit candidate to succeed May as Tory leader and PM
Stupid idea. He agreed to it! What's he going to say? 'Yeah, I agreed to this terrible deal, but you can count on me to know the right path now, guys and gals'
How could a Hard Brexiteer believe a word he says about believing in a Hard Brexit after the Chequers meeting? That, at least, was a genius part of May's maneuvering. If he is resigning a point of principle about the government's Brexit path, how does he square that with agreeing to it not two days ago?
Only one way - the idiot defence. Which also does not help his chances.
He will probably say, I agreed it in principle UNTIL I read the detail, or similar
This is a waste of effort argument. He is going to say he was isolated at the meeting, it was obvious that the vast majority of cabinet was in favour but he made his objections clear and that after reflection he could no longer abide by collective responsibility.
He did not make a statement saying he agreed with this deal so he hardly is going to have to defend a U-turn.
God, Remainers are going to be desperate today
I voted Leave, thanks. He didn't make a public statement but it was made very clear that the statement was on behalf of all the Cabinet. Weasel words will not undo that it the case that he allowed it to go out as a statement that all agreed to, despite reservations they had going in. He has changed his position in 48 hours, and he has to explain that, and frankly his options are limited.
This was a day long meeting for heavens sake - I'm to believe all he got was brief detail, not enough to know if it breached his principles? Like hell. He had all day to go over every little thing he was concerned about and if that was not met, he could have resigned.
He didn't. He backed it. And then he regretted it, and is trying to reverse his direction. Being the first to do so buys him a little cover, as some will be so happy he did so, but it won't make his reversal any less a reversal.
If Suella Braverman goes then we truly are without hope.
I assume Braverman and Baker will go with him?
Don't worry, May can appoint Clarke, Grieve and Soubry to staff the Brexit department!
On a serious note, who can she appoint? She will look ridiculous if she appoints Remainers and not sure any Leaver would take the job (or would look utterly ridiculous if they did).
Gove would probably do it (little weasel that he is)
Why? It did not effect Cameron when Davis resigned last time from his Shadow Cabinet Home Office brief. That time it cost the taxpayer a vanity be-election to boot. He has been utterly useless in his role as Brexit Minister, has not ever really looked like he was particularly interested or engaged in the details of putting together a workable deal. He should be embarrassed that it was May's team that took up the slack and got on with it.
Quite. Why didn’t the Brexiteers have a better plan than May’s? Who should have come up with that plan? Why didn’t he?
Perhaps George Osborne is Charles II - the natural successor to Charles I who was dismissed with ease and fled, only he will return years down the line when the system collapses, with the help of a figure who was both an ally then an enemy of his cause.
One problem, Charles IInd was popular and likeable.
Chuka Umunna is probably more likely
Who knows how popular Osborne might be to the dystopic times we may find ourselves in.
Word in the Scottish press is that Salmond is working his old Banff and Buchan constituency to get elected to Westminster, yet again, at the next GE....
This is being very poorly covered. Film programme followed by Newsday from Thailand on BBC 24. Recorded interview with Jess Phillips on abortion on R5L. Does no-one do live news? And, no, I won't pay for SKY.
One of the current jokes going around Scotland is that it's quite funny that the President's visit at this time of year, means that the Orange Order could really have an Orange Man in the Walks....
There was a fascinating example of how NYT have lost touch with what I would call real America. They send a reporter to interview a husband and wife in Ohio who were Trump voters, are very poor and received a grant from a federal programme for home improvements, which Trump has said isn't a good use of public money.
They obviously think they are going to get an angry reaction from the couple, hopefully with them ranting that Trump has sold them out, but the reporter is clearly shocked and confused when they say, actually if that is what is required to balance a budget / improve the state of US economy, so be it.
Anybody who knows middle America will understand that isn't because they support Trump, it is why Trump's shtick resonates in the first place.
Like him or loathe him, Trump is highly intelligent. He went to Wharton. But really he is a New York real estate wheeler dealer. He should be taken seriously, but not literally. He is not a politician, and is results oriented. Don't get hung up on the untruths he mouths.
Do we know his grades at Wharton? Plenty of rich kids get into American colleges thanks to donations from Daddy.
As for doing this stuff to balance the budget, that's a laugh when Trump has brought in trillion dollar deficits thanks to his tax cuts for the 1%.
This is being very poorly covered. Film programme followed by Newsday from Thailand on BBC 24. Recorded interview with Jess Phillips on abortion on R5L. Does no-one do live news? And, no, I won't pay for SKY.
Comments
Did you know that in Switzerland, you need to declare imputed rent as income, and you pay tax on it? (And that was the case in the UK too until about 1968.)
This might be the start of an orchestrated mass resignation of Leavers from Mrs May's government?
And he was doing sooooo well.
How could a Hard Brexiteer believe a word he says about believing in a Hard Brexit after the Chequers meeting? That, at least, was a genius part of May's maneuvering. If he is resigning a point of principle about the government's Brexit path, how does he square that with agreeing to it not two days ago?
Only one way - the idiot defence. Which also does not help his chances.
How much would it roughly be ?
£200k house x5% = £10k x20% = £2k ?
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1016092266803417089
How could he ever have a genuine "negotiation" when May and Robbins were selling out at every turn?
His resignation speech could be dynamite.
I remember the day May appointed Davis. I said to my wife that this pretty much guaranteed a real Brexit because Davis is a man of principle and would never preside over a sellout. He has tested my faith considerably! But I think that he felt that up to now, it was better to stay and fight.
He quite reasonably has decided that there is now no point in fighting from the inside because May will not listen to the Leavers at all.
Hilarious to see the Remainers immediately try to spin this as good for May/Davis is irrelevant etc. When the Minister for Brexit resigns because your Brexit means Remain, you are in big trouble.
Well done DD. You fought May with passion and integrity and did your duty to your country. Good man.
As for doing this stuff to balance the budget, that's a laugh when Trump has brought in trillion dollar deficits thanks to his tax cuts for the 1%.
To be fair to Davis he polled about as well as May v Corbyn in a Survation poll last summer and that was before May's largely BINO deal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IACDcwUKpRc
The obvious replacement is Gove - generally acknowledged to be competent, came out fighting for the package yesterday, but an arch-Brexiteer. It'd be a shame for us environment/animal people as we want him exactly where he is now, but the logic looks compelling.
It's the same as when Carswell jumped ship and claimed all manner of things which had driven him to it, none of which had prevented him from defending any number of things he was then claiming he did not support.
Perhaps he can't set his alarm that early. Or something.
DD @ 3
However my max stake was £2.50...
Go on Theresa you know it makes sense.
Never mind, eh...
Seems to me he was probably not very happy about the plan, but had no alternative that could secure agreement around the table, and was too gutless to resign. Since then he's realised that the rank and file are even less satisfied than he expected, so it's time to get out and save himself after all.
He was probably as in the dark as anyone as to what it was going to say.
He did not make a statement saying he agreed with this deal so he hardly is going to have to defend a U-turn.
God, Remainers are going to be desperate today
Davis is a right pooh head for my bets.
Davis has now jumped alongside Mogg as the prime alternative to May Brexit, Boris now has 48 hours to decide whether to join them or be lumped forever alongside the rest of the Cabinet to live and die with May's Brexit plan
Night all.
Fail to see how this does not lead to a challenge against the PM. Can she win? Probably. Will the ERG crowd back her plan if she does? I don't see how they could. Can it get through with Lab support? I don't see why they would do that.
Don't worry, May can appoint Clarke, Grieve and Soubry to staff the Brexit department!
On a serious note, who can she appoint? She will look ridiculous if she appoints Remainers and not sure any Leaver would take the job (or would look utterly ridiculous if they did).
I suspect she will abolish the whole Department. Which will make no deal planning somewhat more difficult.
And, no, I won't pay for SKY.
50/1 seems value, if you think the implication is that DD is up for it ( =having previously said no)
This was a day long meeting for heavens sake - I'm to believe all he got was brief detail, not enough to know if it breached his principles? Like hell. He had all day to go over every little thing he was concerned about and if that was not met, he could have resigned.
He didn't. He backed it. And then he regretted it, and is trying to reverse his direction. Being the first to do so buys him a little cover, as some will be so happy he did so, but it won't make his reversal any less a reversal.
Gove would probably do it (little weasel that he is)
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1016096385400279040
Why not wait until the morning when the media are better equipped to cover your flounce?
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1011889780106416128
The key figure is Boris. He has to follow unless he wants to lose whatever vestigial credibility he has left. This could be his final chance.
Gove is now tied to May, irretrievably. If she falls, he’ll never have another job in government.
If Sajid Javid wants to be PM, he needs to think very carefully about what he does next.
I am no fan of the EU in this, but I am not sure how we can expect anyone to negotiate with us when we're in this state.