politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So a cabinet Brexit deal is done and there are no resignations
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Dream on.....williamglenn said:I’m already seeing Brexiteers saying they’d rather stay in than this.
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Yemenanother_richard said:
How many have reunited as a point of interest ?kle4 said:
What a silly way of looking at it. You could equally say ROI was created by a splitting a country and therefore it is inevitable that it will reunite with the UK. There are now circa 200 countries in the world, far more than there were 100 years ago, and I doubt most of those that were split will reunite.brendan16 said:
NI was created by splitting a country. One day which may be soon or years away it will be reunited again.kle4 said:
Well yes, but it is clear we still need to agree on a backstop just in case something like this is not agreed, and whether we have accepted a principle of splitting our own country is pretty significant.Barnesian said:
If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.kle4 said:
It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.MaxPB said:
Where does it say that?williamglenn said:
Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.MaxPB said:
Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.TheScreamingEagles said:
The issue is about the splitting of an existing country, the UK.
East and West Germany
North and South Vietnam
Errr
Is that it ?0 -
May Merkel summit yesterday may have been significantRichard_Nabavi said:
Yes, a welcome change from the PM's earlier record on stagecraft.Jonathan said:So far the stagecraft and expectation management from no10 has been first rate. We'll know in a couple of days if it has worked.
The biggest question now is whether the EU side were informed in advance of the fudge and are buying into it. Michel Barnier seems to have been much more conciliatory in tone today than he has been over the last couple of weeks. It's all reminiscent of the December 2017 shenanigans, so I expect it all has been choreographed in advance.0 -
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Don't forget Tony Marlow!williamglenn said:
It’s a shame Teresa Gorman is no longer with us.TOPPING said:Bill Cash on Newsnight.
There is no greater comment on the whole Brexit shitshow than that. It has resurrected these people.0 -
The Kingdom of Ireland - it was even separately recognised as one entity in the title of the U.K. Post the 1801 act of union until 1922 whereas England, Wales and Scotland were just lumped together as GB. To deny that Ireland was a separate and single entity pre 1922 is ridiculous.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Indeed, I am not clear from which country NI was "split" except from the Irish Free State to which it belonged for less than 24 hours, between 6 December 1922 and 7 December 1922.kle4 said:
What a silly way of looking at it. You could equally say ROI was created by a splitting a country and therefore it is inevitable that it will reunite with the UK. There are now circa 200 countries in the world, far more than there were 100 years ago, and I doubt most of those that were split will reunite.brendan16 said:
NI was created by splitting a country. One day which may be soon or years away it will be reunited again.kle4 said:
Well yes, but it is clear we still need to agree on a backstop just in case something like this is not agreed, and whether we have accepted a principle of splitting our own country is pretty significant.Barnesian said:
If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.kle4 said:
It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.MaxPB said:
Where does it say that?williamglenn said:
Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.MaxPB said:
Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.TheScreamingEagles said:
The issue is about the splitting of an existing country, the UK.0 -
North and Southern Yemen.another_richard said:
How many have reunited as a point of interest ?kle4 said:
What a silly way of looking at it. You could equally say ROI was created by a splitting a country and therefore it is inevitable that it will reunite with the UK. There are now circa 200 countries in the world, far more than there were 100 years ago, and I doubt most of those that were split will reunite.brendan16 said:
NI was created by splitting a country. One day which may be soon or years away it will be reunited again.kle4 said:
Well yes, but it is clear we still need to agree on a backstop just in case something like this is not agreed, and whether we have accepted a principle of splitting our own country is pretty significant.Barnesian said:
If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.kle4 said:
It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.MaxPB said:
Where does it say that?williamglenn said:
Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.MaxPB said:
Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.TheScreamingEagles said:
The issue is about the splitting of an existing country, the UK.
East and West Germany
North and South Vietnam
Errr
Is that it ?
Not an auspicious example though!
Tanganyika and Zanzibar.0 -
India and Pakistan and Bangladesh (in my wildest dreams!)TheScreamingEagles said:
Yemenanother_richard said:
How many have reunited as a point of interest ?kle4 said:
What a silly way of looking at it. You could equally say ROI was created by a splitting a country and therefore it is inevitable that it will reunite with the UK. There are now circa 200 countries in the world, far more than there were 100 years ago, and I doubt most of those that were split will reunite.brendan16 said:
NI was created by splitting a country. One day which may be soon or years away it will be reunited again.kle4 said:
Well yes, but it is clear we still need to agree on a backstop just in case something like this is not agreed, and whether we have accepted a principle of splitting our own country is pretty significant.Barnesian said:
If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.kle4 said:
It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.MaxPB said:
Where does it say that?williamglenn said:
Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.MaxPB said:
Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.TheScreamingEagles said:
The issue is about the splitting of an existing country, the UK.
East and West Germany
North and South Vietnam
Errr
Is that it ?0 -
Beat Ed Balls didn't sheAnazina said:0 -
I agree with your sentiments, however, there is no precedent where the EU has watered down or fudged free movement even a single iota. To do so would break one of the EU's golden rules. As I said just now, I'm open to the idea of them doing it, but sceptical. If they compromise on free movement then it opens the door to for a lot of other countries to start forcing similar compromises, even within the EU.SouthamObserver said:
There comes a point where domestic political considerations kick in. Now that the UK has so publicly conceded so many points and principles, the No Deal scenario becomes a lot more dangerous for the leaders of the EU27, because even though the UK suffers most there are also serious downsides for their countries. Those would now be a whole lot harder to sell given how much ground the UK has conceded, so sticking absolutely to the four freedoms in such circumstances would invite serious opposition. Very few leaders in the EU are in strong enough positions to face that down. There’ll be a negotiation, lines will be blurred further and a deal will be done. We’ll Brexit and not much will change.MaxPB said:
Even then the EU has never compromised on free movement, they have always insisted on 100%. Also, you're reading things that are not in there. Taken at face value the government has copied the Swiss-EU deal, taken out free movement and proposed it to the EU as the long term solution. To my mind it would be a reasonably good deal, I don't see how Brussels would agree. The danger is that if they reject this then no deal really does come into play and the commission will look incredibly unreasonable.rpjs said:Clearly the "mobility framework" is going to end up as something so close to free movement that you won't be able to tell the difference, except that the UK will honestly, this time we mean it voters, enforce the 90-day deadline for finding work.
Just look at the document. Every red line laid out in detail, with the only thing missing being actual red text. And then the following paragraph is a huge qualification and watering down of the preceding red line.0 -
I could say I stand second to none in my contempt for Liam Fox but I'm sure there are many, many people who are able to exceed even my level of contempt which I have for Fox.rpjs said:
Didn't the New Zealanders offer some FTA negotiators to the UK and were told no thanks, Dr Fox and his pals can handle it all themselves?another_richard said:
Perhaps we should have hired the Swiss to do the negotiating.stodge said:
I was always told the EU regretted the Swiss Treaties as they thought the Swiss had outmanoeuvred them in the negotiation.MaxPB said:The deal being proposed is basically lifted from the existing Switzerland-EU treaty. I mean it's almost identical.
If they don't mind sending their soldiers to defend the Pope maybe they would send their diplomats to help the UK.0 -
Oh in theory of course. But if you talk to anyone in the NHS you’ll see why I say it. Hospitals will never charge or be set up for insurance.MaxPB said:
The latter doesn't make sense at all. If anything it would be better for us not to, given that the NHS is completely free. Making EU citizens buy some kind of insurance for NHS cover would be a huge disincentive for unskilled and low wage workers to come. If the oldies in Europe have to pay for insurance in the EU then that's really not our problem.Mortimer said:
By not being in the EU we won’t be bound by welfare rules for EU citizens. Probably reciprocal healthcare will be negotiated.archer101au said:
Congrats. As I have been saying for months, the Tory party always betrays the UK in Europe. Now, how are you going to cope with the ‘mobility framework’ which is just FOM by another name? Endless rationalisation?HYUFD said:So there we have it, 'Brexit means Brexit' or we leave the EU and the single market but maintain harmonisation on trade rules on goods and 'strong reciprocal arrangements in services', freedom of movement still ends but is replaced by a 'mobility framework', we leave the customs union but will stay in 'a combined customs territory', ECJ jurisdiction ends but the UK 'will pay regard to its decisions in areas where common rules were in force' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44747444
Or you could just try a principled resignation from the Tory party!0 -
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?MaxPB said:
Due regard is pretty much how the Swiss treaty works, and more often than not it amounts to nothing and the Swiss just do what they want. Customs facilitation looks like pre-clearance, again pretty much lifted from Switzerland. Mobility framework could mean anything right now, it's a blank piece of paper, the issue, as I said is that the EU has form in insisting 100% free movement with trade deals of this type, no fudges, no 90%, you must sign up to the concept of EU citizenship and them being equivalent to one's own citizens.rpjs said:
Trust me, the "mobility framework" will be FM in all but name. Just as "due regard" will be CJEU jurisdiction in all but name, and the "customs facilitation agreement" will be CU membership in all but name.MaxPB said:
Even then the EU has never compromised on free movement, they have always insisted on 100%. Also, you're reading things that are not in there. Taken at face value the government has copied the Swiss-EU deal, taken out free movement and proposed it to the EU as the long term solution. To my mind it would be a reasonably good deal, I don't see how Brussels would agree. The danger is that if they reject this then no deal really does come into play and the commission will look incredibly unreasonable.rpjs said:Clearly the "mobility framework" is going to end up as something so close to free movement that you won't be able to tell the difference, except that the UK will honestly, this time we mean it voters, enforce the 90-day deadline for finding work.
Just look at the document. Every red line laid out in detail, with the only thing missing being actual red text. And then the following paragraph is a huge qualification and watering down of the preceding red line.
I remain open to the idea that the EU would fudge on free movement, but very, very sceptical. To do so would be allowing some form of cakeism and would lead to other nations looking for similar deals on free movement.
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Did May's team deliberately choose this Friday? No voter will remember any of this beyond 3pm tomorrow afternoon.Anazina said:Mortimer said:
Those of us who talk with non-Londoner Tory voters and members every week could have told you this months ago.CarlottaVance said:
Oh wait, we did...
I hope we win at football tomorrow! Then May can go even softer. The Golden Rule of Brexit is that whatever Young Brexit Fogies say is the prognosis, the opposite is true.rpjs said:
"as if a combined customs territory" looks like a customs union and quacks like a customs union to me. Plus "Due regard" to the CJEU and what seems pretty like the SM in goodsMortimer said:
A Brexit that sees us leave the single market, customs union and ECJ is now considers soft Brexit. What, pray, is hard Brexit now defined as?Big_G_NorthWales said:The bloody difficult woman seems at last to have put her foot down and disloyal cabinet ministers will be out.
She has seen off a hard Brexit, steared towards a path that Parliament are more likely to approve, a softish Brexit and no doubt in years to come, depending on what happens in the EU, a probable move to re-join.
As far as I am concerned I am content tonight
We won’t be rejoining BigG. We’d lose our opt outs.
It all seems pretty damn soft to me.0 -
Yep - this is not a government worthy of the nameGIN1138 said:
Hopefully not.williamglenn said:https://twitter.com/MatthewOToole2/status/1015335213545803778
Can the government keep the DUP on board?
We need an end to the shambles now.
DUP should pull the plug on the whole shower on Monday.0 -
It is ultimately a move towards associate membership of the EU in the longer termkle4 said:
This could have all been avoided if 'Associate Membership' of the EU had existed 10 years ago perhaps? Too little done too late to deal with the unpopularity of the institution, but work much earlier would have dealt with it.HYUFD said:So there we have it, 'Brexit means Brexit' or we leave the EU and the single market but maintain harmonisation on trade rules on goods and 'strong reciprocal arrangements in services', freedom of movement still ends but is replaced by a 'mobility framework', we leave the customs union but will stay in 'a combined customs territory', ECJ jurisdiction ends but the UK 'will pay regard to its decisions in areas where common rules were in force' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44747444
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Thanks.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yemenanother_richard said:
How many have reunited as a point of interest ?kle4 said:
What a silly way of looking at it. You could equally say ROI was created by a splitting a country and therefore it is inevitable that it will reunite with the UK. There are now circa 200 countries in the world, far more than there were 100 years ago, and I doubt most of those that were split will reunite.brendan16 said:
NI was created by splitting a country. One day which may be soon or years away it will be reunited again.kle4 said:
Well yes, but it is clear we still need to agree on a backstop just in case something like this is not agreed, and whether we have accepted a principle of splitting our own country is pretty significant.Barnesian said:
If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.kle4 said:
It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.MaxPB said:
Where does it say that?williamglenn said:
Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.MaxPB said:
Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.TheScreamingEagles said:
The issue is about the splitting of an existing country, the UK.
East and West Germany
North and South Vietnam
Errr
Is that it ?0 -
As you may or may not recall I did vote Remain, as long as we technically leave the EU, the single market, the customs union and end free movement then any deal is fine by me and this deal still technically does all of that.archer101au said:
Congrats. As I have been saying for months, the Tory party always betrays the UK in Europe. Now, how are you going to cope with the ‘mobility framework’ which is just FOM by another name? Endless rationalisation?HYUFD said:So there we have it, 'Brexit means Brexit' or we leave the EU and the single market but maintain harmonisation on trade rules on goods and 'strong reciprocal arrangements in services', freedom of movement still ends but is replaced by a 'mobility framework', we leave the customs union but will stay in 'a combined customs territory', ECJ jurisdiction ends but the UK 'will pay regard to its decisions in areas where common rules were in force' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44747444
Or you could just try a principled resignation from the Tory party!
The main issue with FOM for me is to get some reflection of the transition controls we could have taken in 2004 and a 'mobility framework' will likely do that0 -
Iain Dale not happy either. Happy days.0
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I thought about Tanzania but were they ever one country before being split up and then reuniting ?Foxy said:
North and Southern Yemen.another_richard said:
How many have reunited as a point of interest ?kle4 said:
What a silly way of looking at it. You could equally say ROI was created by a splitting a country and therefore it is inevitable that it will reunite with the UK. There are now circa 200 countries in the world, far more than there were 100 years ago, and I doubt most of those that were split will reunite.brendan16 said:
NI was created by splitting a country. One day which may be soon or years away it will be reunited again.kle4 said:
Well yes, but it is clear we still need to agree on a backstop just in case something like this is not agreed, and whether we have accepted a principle of splitting our own country is pretty significant.Barnesian said:
If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.kle4 said:
It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.MaxPB said:
Where does it say that?williamglenn said:
Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.MaxPB said:
Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.TheScreamingEagles said:
The issue is about the splitting of an existing country, the UK.
East and West Germany
North and South Vietnam
Errr
Is that it ?
Not an auspicious example though!
Tanganyika and Zanzibar.
Or were they two different states which decided to become one ?0 -
Seems BoZo traded any thoughts of the top job for another few months of the ministerial car.
Brexiteer backbenchers not happy.
Twat. x20 -
Crimea and RussiaFoxy said:
North and Southern Yemen.another_richard said:
How many have reunited as a point of interest ?kle4 said:
What a silly way of looking at it. You could equally say ROI was created by a splitting a country and therefore it is inevitable that it will reunite with the UK. There are now circa 200 countries in the world, far more than there were 100 years ago, and I doubt most of those that were split will reunite.brendan16 said:
NI was created by splitting a country. One day which may be soon or years away it will be reunited again.kle4 said:
Well yes, but it is clear we still need to agree on a backstop just in case something like this is not agreed, and whether we have accepted a principle of splitting our own country is pretty significant.Barnesian said:
If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.kle4 said:
It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.MaxPB said:
Where does it say that?williamglenn said:
Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.MaxPB said:
Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.TheScreamingEagles said:
The issue is about the splitting of an existing country, the UK.
East and West Germany
North and South Vietnam
Errr
Is that it ?
Not an auspicious example though!
Tanganyika and Zanzibar.0 -
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Saarland and West Germany?another_richard said:
How many have reunited as a point of interest ?kle4 said:
What a silly way of looking at it. You could equally say ROI was created by a splitting a country and therefore it is inevitable that it will reunite with the UK. There are now circa 200 countries in the world, far more than there were 100 years ago, and I doubt most of those that were split will reunite.brendan16 said:
NI was created by splitting a country. One day which may be soon or years away it will be reunited again.kle4 said:
Well yes, but it is clear we still need to agree on a backstop just in case something like this is not agreed, and whether we have accepted a principle of splitting our own country is pretty significant.Barnesian said:
If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.kle4 said:
It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.MaxPB said:
Where does it say that?williamglenn said:
Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.MaxPB said:
Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.TheScreamingEagles said:
The issue is about the splitting of an existing country, the UK.
East and West Germany
North and South Vietnam
Errr
Is that it ?
Biafra and Nigeria?
CSA and USA?0 -
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."SouthamObserver said:Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.0 -
I forgot it was Shakil's funeral tonight - I understood they were planning to include appearances by friends and families of real life victims which I presume they did. I will catch up on iplayer.Pulpstar said:I've seen it all tonight, Eastenders actually managed to produce a very moving episode ! I hope Sadiq was watching.
It is certainly a better show when it's not centred around Danny Dyer and his psycho friend Stuart.0 -
Newfoundland (and Canada) is another one that might count but can understand why others wouldn't count it.0
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Shock horror it might have to respond to what it’s voters want- something looser I’d say - rather than ever closer union driven by a fanatical elite.MaxPB said:
I agree with your sentiments, however, there is no precedent where the EU has watered down or fudged free movement even a single iota. To do so would break one of the EU's golden rules. As I said just now, I'm open to the idea of them doing it, but sceptical. If they compromise on free movement then it opens the door to for a lot of other countries to start forcing similar compromises, even within the EU.SouthamObserver said:
There comes a point where domestic political considerations kick in. Now that the UK has so publicly conceded so many points and principles, the No Deal scenario becomes a lot more dangerous for the leaders of the EU27, because even though the UK suffers most there are also serious downsides for their countries. Those would now be a whole lot harder to sell given how much ground the UK has conceded, so sticking absolutely to the four freedoms in such circumstances would invite serious opposition. Very few leaders in the EU are in strong enough positions to face that down. There’ll be a negotiation, lines will be blurred further and a deal will be done. We’ll Brexit and not much will change.MaxPB said:
Even then the EU has never compromised on free movement, they have always insisted on 100%. Also, you're reading things that are not in there. Taken at face value the government has copied the Swiss-EU deal, taken out free movement and proposed it to the EU as the long term solution. To my mind it would be a reasonably good deal, I don't see how Brussels would agree. The danger is that if they reject this then no deal really does come into play and the commission will look incredibly unreasonable.rpjs said:Clearly the "mobility framework" is going to end up as something so close to free movement that you won't be able to tell the difference, except that the UK will honestly, this time we mean it voters, enforce the 90-day deadline for finding work.
Just look at the document. Every red line laid out in detail, with the only thing missing being actual red text. And then the following paragraph is a huge qualification and watering down of the preceding red line.0 -
I never voted for Brexit in the first place so I am certainly not going to resign over a sensible compromiserpjs said:
HYUFD will support whatever the Tory party tells him to support.archer101au said:
Congrats. As I have been saying for months, the Tory party always betrays the UK in Europe. Now, how are you going to cope with the ‘mobility framework’ which is just FOM by another name? Endless rationalisation?HYUFD said:So there we have it, 'Brexit means Brexit' or we leave the EU and the single market but maintain harmonisation on trade rules on goods and 'strong reciprocal arrangements in services', freedom of movement still ends but is replaced by a 'mobility framework', we leave the customs union but will stay in 'a combined customs territory', ECJ jurisdiction ends but the UK 'will pay regard to its decisions in areas where common rules were in force' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44747444
Or you could just try a principled resignation from the Tory party!0 -
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/16/uk-hires-top-new-zealand-trade-negotiator-head-post-brexit-deals/another_richard said:
I could say I stand second to none in my contempt for Liam Fox but I'm sure there are many, many people who are able to exceed even my level of contempt which I have for Fox.rpjs said:
Didn't the New Zealanders offer some FTA negotiators to the UK and were told no thanks, Dr Fox and his pals can handle it all themselves?another_richard said:
Perhaps we should have hired the Swiss to do the negotiating.stodge said:
I was always told the EU regretted the Swiss Treaties as they thought the Swiss had outmanoeuvred them in the negotiation.MaxPB said:The deal being proposed is basically lifted from the existing Switzerland-EU treaty. I mean it's almost identical.
If they don't mind sending their soldiers to defend the Pope maybe they would send their diplomats to help the UK.0 -
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No need, just use PAYE to charge an additional NHS insurance contribution. Self employed must pay it with their self assessment tax bill. Getting the hospitals to charge for it doesn't make sense anyway.Mortimer said:
Oh in theory of course. But if you talk to anyone in the NHS you’ll see why I say it. Hospitals will never charge or be set up for insurance.MaxPB said:
The latter doesn't make sense at all. If anything it would be better for us not to, given that the NHS is completely free. Making EU citizens buy some kind of insurance for NHS cover would be a huge disincentive for unskilled and low wage workers to come. If the oldies in Europe have to pay for insurance in the EU then that's really not our problem.Mortimer said:
By not being in the EU we won’t be bound by welfare rules for EU citizens. Probably reciprocal healthcare will be negotiated.archer101au said:
Congrats. As I have been saying for months, the Tory party always betrays the UK in Europe. Now, how are you going to cope with the ‘mobility framework’ which is just FOM by another name? Endless rationalisation?HYUFD said:So there we have it, 'Brexit means Brexit' or we leave the EU and the single market but maintain harmonisation on trade rules on goods and 'strong reciprocal arrangements in services', freedom of movement still ends but is replaced by a 'mobility framework', we leave the customs union but will stay in 'a combined customs territory', ECJ jurisdiction ends but the UK 'will pay regard to its decisions in areas where common rules were in force' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44747444
Or you could just try a principled resignation from the Tory party!0 -
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I too am not sure of the time course.another_richard said:
I thought about Tanzania but were they ever one country before being split up and then reuniting ?Foxy said:
North and Southern Yemen.another_richard said:
How many have reunited as a point of interest ?kle4 said:
What a silly way of looking at it. You could equally say ROI was created by a splitting a country and therefore it is inevitable that it will reunite with the UK. There are now circa 200 countries in the world, far more than there were 100 years ago, and I doubt most of those that were split will reunite.brendan16 said:
NI was created by splitting a country. One day which may be soon or years away it will be reunited again.kle4 said:
Well yes, but it is clear we still need to agree on a backstop just in case something like this is not agreed, and whether we have accepted a principle of splitting our own country is pretty significant.Barnesian said:
If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.kle4 said:
It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.MaxPB said:
Where does it say that?williamglenn said:
Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.MaxPB said:
Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.TheScreamingEagles said:
The issue is about the splitting of an existing country, the UK.
East and West Germany
North and South Vietnam
Errr
Is that it ?
Not an auspicious example though!
Tanganyika and Zanzibar.
Or were they two different states which decided to become one ?
Nigeria and Biafra too, but perhaps that would raise issues over exactly what we mean.
Certainly fission is more common than fusion, though mutinational trade blocks do seem to be proliferating.0 -
Yes posted workers is an issue in France and Germany, undercutting wages and social conditions.SouthamObserver said:
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?MaxPB said:
Due regard is pretty much how the Swiss treaty works, and more often than not it amounts to nothing and the Swiss just do what they want. Customs facilitation looks like pre-clearance, again pretty much lifted from Switzerland. Mobility framework could mean anything right now, it's a blank piece of paper, the issue, as I said is that the EU has form in insisting 100% free movement with trade deals of this type, no fudges, no 90%, you must sign up to the concept of EU citizenship and them being equivalent to one's own citizens.rpjs said:
Trust me, the "mobility framework" will be FM in all but name. Just as "due regard" will be CJEU jurisdiction in all but name, and the "customs facilitation agreement" will be CU membership in all but name.MaxPB said:
Even then the EU has never compromised on free movement, they have always insisted on 100%. Also, you're reading things that are not in there. Taken at face value the government has copied the Swiss-EU deal, taken out free movement and proposed it to the EU as the long term solution. To my mind it would be a reasonably good deal, I don't see how Brussels would agree. The danger is that if they reject this then no deal really does come into play and the commission will look incredibly unreasonable.rpjs said:Clearly the "mobility framework" is going to end up as something so close to free movement that you won't be able to tell the difference, except that the UK will honestly, this time we mean it voters, enforce the 90-day deadline for finding work.
Just look at the document. Every red line laid out in detail, with the only thing missing being actual red text. And then the following paragraph is a huge qualification and watering down of the preceding red line.
I remain open to the idea that the EU would fudge on free movement, but very, very sceptical. To do so would be allowing some form of cakeism and would lead to other nations looking for similar deals on free movement.0 -
I think that where we end up from here will be fine for most people. If the EU27 or Commission end up knocking it back, then they will be making a very big mistake. I just can’t see that happening. The UK has gone a long way, it will no doubt go a little further. That should be enough.MaxPB said:
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."SouthamObserver said:Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Don’t get me wrong - leaving is not going to be good for us, but we’re not staying so the best we can do is to go in the least harmful manner possible.
0 -
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.MaxPB said:
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."SouthamObserver said:Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
0 -
Make it a requirement for employment.Mortimer said:
Oh in theory of course. But if you talk to anyone in the NHS you’ll see why I say it. Hospitals will never charge or be set up for insurance.MaxPB said:
The latter doesn't make sense at all. If anything it would be better for us not to, given that the NHS is completely free. Making EU citizens buy some kind of insurance for NHS cover would be a huge disincentive for unskilled and low wage workers to come. If the oldies in Europe have to pay for insurance in the EU then that's really not our problem.Mortimer said:
By not being in the EU we won’t be bound by welfare rules for EU citizens. Probably reciprocal healthcare will be negotiated.archer101au said:
Congrats. As I have been saying for months, the Tory party always betrays the UK in Europe. Now, how are you going to cope with the ‘mobility framework’ which is just FOM by another name? Endless rationalisation?HYUFD said:So there we have it, 'Brexit means Brexit' or we leave the EU and the single market but maintain harmonisation on trade rules on goods and 'strong reciprocal arrangements in services', freedom of movement still ends but is replaced by a 'mobility framework', we leave the customs union but will stay in 'a combined customs territory', ECJ jurisdiction ends but the UK 'will pay regard to its decisions in areas where common rules were in force' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44747444
Or you could just try a principled resignation from the Tory party!
And bring in a employment charge on businesses for each immigrant they employ - charge to be zero for all immigrants who earn more than average earnings so as not to impact higher value workers.
Its about time those companies which rely on taxpayer subsidised minimum wage migrant labour start to pay a contribution for the financial and social costs their business model causes this country.0 -
Annoying all the right people....TOPPING said:Iain Dale not happy either. Happy days.
0 -
One further thought: Watch Gove. He is the key to this now.0
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He's clever enough to wait to see what EU do next.Richard_Nabavi said:One further thought: Watch Gove. He is the key to this now.
0 -
Remember though only the UK and Sweden and Ireland of nations within the EU/EEA allowed full free movement from the main first wave of the new accession nations to the EU from Eastern Europe without transition controls from 2004 to 2011, so in a sense we are 'owed' a concession on free movement considering we have agreed to have more of it than almost any other EU/EEA nationMaxPB said:
I agree with your sentiments, however, there is no precedent where the EU has watered down or fudged free movement even a single iota. To do so would break one of the EU's golden rules. As I said just now, I'm open to the idea of them doing it, but sceptical. If they compromise on free movement then it opens the door to for a lot of other countries to start forcing similar compromises, even within the EU.SouthamObserver said:
There comes a point where domestic political considerations kick in. Now that the UK has so publicly conceded so many points and principles, the No Deal scenario becomes a lot more dangerous for the leaders of the EU27, because even though the UK suffers most there are also serious downsides for their countries. Those would now be a whole lot harder to sell given how much ground the UK has conceded, so sticking absolutely to the four freedoms in such circumstances would invite serious opposition. Very few leaders in the EU are in strong enough positions to face that down. There’ll be a negotiation, lines will be blurred further and a deal will be done. We’ll Brexit and not much will change.MaxPB said:
Even then the EU has never compromised on free movement, they have always insisted on 100%. Also, you're reading things that are not in there. Taken at face value the government has copied the Swiss-EU deal, taken out free movement and proposed it to the EU as the long term solution. To my mind it would be a reasonably good deal, I don't see how Brussels would agree. The danger is that if they reject this then no deal really does come into play and the commission will look incredibly unreasonable.rpjs said:Clearly the "mobility framework" is going to end up as something so close to free movement that you won't be able to tell the difference, except that the UK will honestly, this time we mean it voters, enforce the 90-day deadline for finding work.
Just look at the document. Every red line laid out in detail, with the only thing missing being actual red text. And then the following paragraph is a huge qualification and watering down of the preceding red line.0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
hard Brexit is over and we move onarcher101au said:Well a few things to take away from this disgraceful but totally predictable betrayal:
- Javid returned to form, backing a Remainer plan again as soon as he saw the way the wind was blowing. He is now finished as a candidate for next leader. Tory members only backed him because he pretended to be a Leaver.
- None of the Cabinet leavers will ever become Tory leader. They will now be ridiculed for the rest of their careers.
- The deal will not be rejected by the EU. However, they will just chip away at every piece until all the provisions match whatever they want. There will be no resistance from May. Free movement, payments into the budget and ECJ jurisdiction will all be conceded. The backstop will be agreed per the EU text. The money will be handed over with no links to the trade agreement. The idea that this will go away because the EU will reject it misses the point - May and Robbins are involved in a conspiracy with the EU. This meeting was all about provIng that the Leavers will never resign, nothing else.
- If the Government plan to put this White Paper before Parliament, how are they going pass it? Labour support?
- Or shall we just watch the Tory Leavers mumble but sit on their hands. It truly is a party of invertebrates.
- The Tories have condemned themselves to a massive defeat at the next GE. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch. The Tory Party has been betraying the country to the EU for 50 years.
You wish...0 -
-
Good idea.MaxPB said:
No need, just use PAYE to charge an additional NHS insurance contribution. Self employed must pay it with their self assessment tax bill. Getting the hospitals to charge for it doesn't make sense anyway.Mortimer said:
Oh in theory of course. But if you talk to anyone in the NHS you’ll see why I say it. Hospitals will never charge or be set up for insurance.MaxPB said:
The latter doesn't make sense at all. If anything it would be better for us not to, given that the NHS is completely free. Making EU citizens buy some kind of insurance for NHS cover would be a huge disincentive for unskilled and low wage workers to come. If the oldies in Europe have to pay for insurance in the EU then that's really not our problem.Mortimer said:
By not being in the EU we won’t be bound by welfare rules for EU citizens. Probably reciprocal healthcare will be negotiated.archer101au said:
Congrats. As I have been saying for months, the Tory party always betrays the UK in Europe. Now, how are you going to cope with the ‘mobility framework’ which is just FOM by another name? Endless rationalisation?HYUFD said:So there we have it, 'Brexit means Brexit' or we leave the EU and the single market but maintain harmonisation on trade rules on goods and 'strong reciprocal arrangements in services', freedom of movement still ends but is replaced by a 'mobility framework', we leave the customs union but will stay in 'a combined customs territory', ECJ jurisdiction ends but the UK 'will pay regard to its decisions in areas where common rules were in force' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44747444
Or you could just try a principled resignation from the Tory party!
Too much wine imbibed and sun absorbed at Tory event this evening to have creative thoughts. Well done sir.0 -
That’s clever. A vacancy in the FO is a nice reward for loyalty.Scott_P said:0 -
North and South Yemen. Although, that is not a model for anybody to follow. Especially having North Yemen and South Yemen military units not integrated - but in adjacent barracks. What could possibly go wrong?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Saarland and West Germany?another_richard said:
How many have reunited as a point of interest ?kle4 said:
What a silly way of looking at it. You could equally say ROI was created by a splitting a country and therefore it is inevitable that it will reunite with the UK. There are now circa 200 countries in the world, far more than there were 100 years ago, and I doubt most of those that were split will reunite.brendan16 said:
NI was created by splitting a country. One day which may be soon or years away it will be reunited again.kle4 said:
Well yes, but it is clear we still need to agree on a backstop just in case something like this is not agreed, and whether we have accepted a principle of splitting our own country is pretty significant.Barnesian said:
If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.kle4 said:
It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.MaxPB said:
Where does it say that?williamglenn said:
Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.MaxPB said:
Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.TheScreamingEagles said:
The issue is about the splitting of an existing country, the UK.
East and West Germany
North and South Vietnam
Errr
Is that it ?
Biafra and Nigeria?
CSA and USA?0 -
I think they are right. Regulatory alignment for goods, customs facilitation and "due regard" (whatever that means) for the ECJ. It is a soft Brexit, however, it's definitely not an EEA/Customs Union Brexit that so many were after, it's also not going to be easy to reverse once it's in place which is why I'm surprised that the remainers are jumping on board so easily.Mortimer said:
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.MaxPB said:
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."SouthamObserver said:Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.0 -
+1another_richard said:
Make it a requirement for employment.Mortimer said:
Oh in theory of course. But if you talk to anyone in the NHS you’ll see why I say it. Hospitals will never charge or be set up for insurance.MaxPB said:
The latter doesn't make sense at all. If anything it would be better for us not to, given that the NHS is completely free. Making EU citizens buy some kind of insurance for NHS cover would be a huge disincentive for unskilled and low wage workers to come. If the oldies in Europe have to pay for insurance in the EU then that's really not our problem.Mortimer said:
By not being in the EU we won’t be bound by welfare rules for EU citizens. Probably reciprocal healthcare will be negotiated.archer101au said:
Congrats. As I have been saying for months, the Tory party always betrays the UK in Europe. Now, how are you going to cope with the ‘mobility framework’ which is just FOM by another name? Endless rationalisation?HYUFD said:So there we have it, 'Brexit means Brexit' or we leave the EU and the single market but maintain harmonisation on trade rules on goods and 'strong reciprocal arrangements in services', freedom of movement still ends but is replaced by a 'mobility framework', we leave the customs union but will stay in 'a combined customs territory', ECJ jurisdiction ends but the UK 'will pay regard to its decisions in areas where common rules were in force' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44747444
Or you could just try a principled resignation from the Tory party!
And bring in a employment charge on businesses for each immigrant they employ - charge to be zero for all immigrants who earn more than average earnings so as not to impact higher value workers.
Its about time those companies which rely on taxpayer subsidised minimum wage migrant labour start to pay a contribution for the financial and social costs their business model causes this country.0 -
China and TibetTheScreamingEagles said:
Yemenanother_richard said:
How many have reunited as a point of interest ?kle4 said:
What a silly way of looking at it. You could equally say ROI was created by a splitting a country and therefore it is inevitable that it will reunite with the UK. There are now circa 200 countries in the world, far more than there were 100 years ago, and I doubt most of those that were split will reunite.brendan16 said:
NI was created by splitting a country. One day which may be soon or years away it will be reunited again.kle4 said:
Well yes, but it is clear we still need to agree on a backstop just in case something like this is not agreed, and whether we have accepted a principle of splitting our own country is pretty significant.Barnesian said:
If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.kle4 said:
It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.MaxPB said:
Where does it say that?williamglenn said:
Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.MaxPB said:
Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.TheScreamingEagles said:
The issue is about the splitting of an existing country, the UK.
East and West Germany
North and South Vietnam
Errr
Is that it ?
Russia and Eastern Donbass
Germany and Austria, Danzig, Pozen.0 -
Now that BoZo has folded, JRM is the next Great White Hope.rottenborough said:
If he bottles it too, the Brexiteers will be as sad as Nadine at BoZo's pity party0 -
Remember Cameron and that whole regnegotiation palaver? If he'd come back with something like what has been agreed by the cabinet today most people would have been delighted and called it a great success.SouthamObserver said:Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Now the EU still needs to agree to it, but I've long felt we'll probably end up where we should have started from. A bit less free movement, outside the EU, still able to trade, and able to diverge if it suits us.0 -
That's a good idea.MaxPB said:
No need, just use PAYE to charge an additional NHS insurance contribution. Self employed must pay it with their self assessment tax bill. Getting the hospitals to charge for it doesn't make sense anyway.Mortimer said:
Oh in theory of course. But if you talk to anyone in the NHS you’ll see why I say it. Hospitals will never charge or be set up for insurance.MaxPB said:
The latter doesn't make sense at all. If anything it would be better for us not to, given that the NHS is completely free. Making EU citizens buy some kind of insurance for NHS cover would be a huge disincentive for unskilled and low wage workers to come. If the oldies in Europe have to pay for insurance in the EU then that's really not our problem.Mortimer said:
By not being in the EU we won’t be bound by welfare rules for EU citizens. Probably reciprocal healthcare will be negotiated.archer101au said:
Congrats. As I have been saying for months, the Tory party always betrays the UK in Europe. Now, how are you going to cope with the ‘mobility framework’ which is just FOM by another name? Endless rationalisation?HYUFD said:So there we have it, 'Brexit means Brexit' or we leave the EU and the single market but maintain harmonisation on trade rules on goods and 'strong reciprocal arrangements in services', freedom of movement still ends but is replaced by a 'mobility framework', we leave the customs union but will stay in 'a combined customs territory', ECJ jurisdiction ends but the UK 'will pay regard to its decisions in areas where common rules were in force' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44747444
Or you could just try a principled resignation from the Tory party!0 -
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You can count Germany multiple times. Holy Roman Empire - petty states - German Empire/Weimar/Nazis - E/W Germany - reunified Germany.another_richard said:
I thought about Tanzania but were they ever one country before being split up and then reuniting ?Foxy said:
North and Southern Yemen.another_richard said:
How many have reunited as a point of interest ?kle4 said:
What a silly way of looking at it. You could equally say ROI was created by a splitting a country and therefore it is inevitable that it will reunite with the UK. There are now circa 200 countries in the world, far more than there were 100 years ago, and I doubt most of those that were split will reunite.brendan16 said:
NI was created by splitting a country. One day which may be soon or years away it will be reunited again.kle4 said:
Well yes, but it is clear we still need to agree on a backstop just in case something like this is not agreed, and whether we have accepted a principle of splitting our own country is pretty significant.Barnesian said:
If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.kle4 said:
It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.MaxPB said:
Where does it say that?williamglenn said:
Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.MaxPB said:
Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.TheScreamingEagles said:
The issue is about the splitting of an existing country, the UK.
East and West Germany
North and South Vietnam
Errr
Is that it ?
Not an auspicious example though!
Tanganyika and Zanzibar.
Or were they two different states which decided to become one ?
Russia kind of counts as well. It was a single Rus originally but had already broken up to a substantial extent before the Mongols shattered it and the Princes of Moscow subsequently reunited it.0 -
Wickham says otherwiseScott_P said:0 -
You're probably right, I just think the commission are much less flexible with the four freedoms than we'd like.SouthamObserver said:
I think that where we end up from here will be fine for most people. If the EU27 or Commission end up knocking it back, then they will be making a very big mistake. I just can’t see that happening. The UK has gone a long way, it will no doubt go a little further. That should be enough.MaxPB said:
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."SouthamObserver said:Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Don’t get me wrong - leaving is not going to be good for us, but we’re not staying so the best we can do is to go in the least harmful manner possible.0 -
I gather you have a big business success.SouthamObserver said:
Can I add my congratulations and if you'd like to give details for any PBers who didn't know.0 -
Aren’t we all supposed to be pulling together. If you’re happy and I’m happy haven’t we both won?Mortimer said:
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.MaxPB said:
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."SouthamObserver said:Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
0 -
Very good tactics by May to get them all to Chequers and then make a show of reimposing collective responsibility, especially if they’ve agreed to something down the line that will be explosive. There’ll be a kind of omertà hanging over them.0
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Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.Mortimer said:
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.MaxPB said:
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."SouthamObserver said:Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.0 -
Of course. It just makes me chuckle.SouthamObserver said:
Aren’t we all supposed to be pulling together. If you’re happy and I’m happy haven’t we both won?Mortimer said:
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.MaxPB said:
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."SouthamObserver said:Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
I mentioned it last night but not sure you saw - congrats on business news!0 -
I dare say her scheduling staff identified a window of opportunityrottenborough said:
Did May's team deliberately choose this Friday? No voter will remember any of this beyond 3pm tomorrow afternoon.Anazina said:Mortimer said:
Those of us who talk with non-Londoner Tory voters and members every week could have told you this months ago.CarlottaVance said:
Oh wait, we did...
I hope we win at football tomorrow! Then May can go even softer. The Golden Rule of Brexit is that whatever Young Brexit Fogies say is the prognosis, the opposite is true.rpjs said:
"as if a combined customs territory" looks like a customs union and quacks like a customs union to me. Plus "Due regard" to the CJEU and what seems pretty like the SM in goodsMortimer said:
A Brexit that sees us leave the single market, customs union and ECJ is now considers soft Brexit. What, pray, is hard Brexit now defined as?Big_G_NorthWales said:The bloody difficult woman seems at last to have put her foot down and disloyal cabinet ministers will be out.
She has seen off a hard Brexit, steared towards a path that Parliament are more likely to approve, a softish Brexit and no doubt in years to come, depending on what happens in the EU, a probable move to re-join.
As far as I am concerned I am content tonight
We won’t be rejoining BigG. We’d lose our opt outs.
It all seems pretty damn soft to me.0 -
So with Brazil going out I am green on anyone winning the WC apart from Russia or Croatia.0
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The same path to divergence attracts me.MaxPB said:
I think they are right. Regulatory alignment for goods, customs facilitation and "due regard" (whatever that means) for the ECJ. It is a soft Brexit, however, it's definitely not an EEA/Customs Union Brexit that so many were after, it's also not going to be easy to reverse once it's in place which is why I'm surprised that the remainers are jumping on board so easily.Mortimer said:
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.MaxPB said:
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."SouthamObserver said:Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Now, if we can find some way to stop the EU trying to pass this silly antiques bill...0 -
0
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Trump to meet Nicola Sturgeon when he travels to Scotland
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5925045/Donald-Trumps-three-day-UK-trip-cost-30m-include-nuclear-powered-aircraft-carrier.html0 -
Much more talk like this and the 48 letters will be there by Monday
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/10153582412561694720 -
"Why don't you leave the UK honey?"HYUFD said:Trump to meet Nicola Sturgeon when he travels to Scotland
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5925045/Donald-Trumps-three-day-UK-trip-cost-30m-include-nuclear-powered-aircraft-carrier.html0 -
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May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."0
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Thank-you!!Mortimer said:
Of course. It just makes me chuckle.SouthamObserver said:
Aren’t we all supposed to be pulling together. If you’re happy and I’m happy haven’t we both won?Mortimer said:
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.MaxPB said:
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."SouthamObserver said:Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
I mentioned it last night but not sure you saw - congrats on business news!
0 -
0
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I think that's overoptimistic. I think this proposal will be rejected out of hand (though I'd be happy to be proved wrong).SouthamObserver said:
I think that where we end up from here will be fine for most people. If the EU27 or Commission end up knocking it back, then they will be making a very big mistake. I just can’t see that happening. The UK has gone a long way, it will no doubt go a little further. That should be enough.MaxPB said:
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."SouthamObserver said:Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Don’t get me wrong - leaving is not going to be good for us, but we’re not staying so the best we can do is to go in the least harmful manner possible.0 -
China has done so many times. Fragmented, re-united, fragmented.david_herdson said:
You can count Germany multiple times. Holy Roman Empire - petty states - German Empire/Weimar/Nazis - E/W Germany - reunified Germany.another_richard said:
I thought about Tanzania but were they ever one country before being split up and then reuniting ?Foxy said:
North and Southern Yemen.another_richard said:
How many have reunited as a point of interest ?kle4 said:
What a silly way of looking at it. You could equally say ROI was created by a splitting a country and therefore it is inevitable that it will reunite with the UK. There are now circa 200 countries in the world, far more than there were 100 years ago, and I doubt most of those that were split will reunite.brendan16 said:
NI was created by splitting a country. One day which may be soon or years away it will be reunited again.kle4 said:
Well yes, but it is clear we still need to agree on a backstop just in case something like this is not agreed, and whether we have accepted a principle of splitting our own country is pretty significant.Barnesian said:
If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.kle4 said:
It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.MaxPB said:
Where does it say that?williamglenn said:
Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.MaxPB said:
Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.TheScreamingEagles said:
The issue is about the splitting of an existing country, the UK.
East and West Germany
North and South Vietnam
Errr
Is that it ?
Not an auspicious example though!
Tanganyika and Zanzibar.
Or were they two different states which decided to become one ?
Russia kind of counts as well. It was a single Rus originally but had already broken up to a substantial extent before the Mongols shattered it and the Princes of Moscow subsequently reunited it.0 -
And if England win, then any huffing and puffing from JRM will be lost on the front pages with Southgate worship.Anazina said:
I dare say her scheduling staff identified a window of opportunityrottenborough said:
Did May's team deliberately choose this Friday? No voter will remember any of this beyond 3pm tomorrow afternoon.Anazina said:Mortimer said:
Those of us who talk with non-Londoner Tory voters and members every week could have told you this months ago.CarlottaVance said:
Oh wait, we did...
I hope we win at football tomorrow! Then May can go even softer. The Golden Rule of Brexit is that whatever Young Brexit Fogies say is the prognosis, the opposite is true.rpjs said:
"as if a combined customs territory" looks like a customs union and quacks like a customs union to me. Plus "Due regard" to the CJEU and what seems pretty like the SM in goodsMortimer said:
A Brexit that sees us leave the single market, customs union and ECJ is now considers soft Brexit. What, pray, is hard Brexit now defined as?Big_G_NorthWales said:The bloody difficult woman seems at last to have put her foot down and disloyal cabinet ministers will be out.
She has seen off a hard Brexit, steared towards a path that Parliament are more likely to approve, a softish Brexit and no doubt in years to come, depending on what happens in the EU, a probable move to re-join.
As far as I am concerned I am content tonight
We won’t be rejoining BigG. We’d lose our opt outs.
It all seems pretty damn soft to me.
Brilliant politics from May? Or just luck?0 -
FWIW Stephen Harper and Liam Fox gave speeches at the IFT last week (I couldn’t go so a colleague took my place). Fox was embarrassingly poor. Harper was great as was Hannan.another_richard said:
I could say I stand second to none in my contempt for Liam Fox but I'm sure there are many, many people who are able to exceed even my level of contempt which I have for Fox.rpjs said:
Didn't the New Zealanders offer some FTA negotiators to the UK and were told no thanks, Dr Fox and his pals can handle it all themselves?another_richard said:
Perhaps we should have hired the Swiss to do the negotiating.stodge said:
I was always told the EU regretted the Swiss Treaties as they thought the Swiss had outmanoeuvred them in the negotiation.MaxPB said:The deal being proposed is basically lifted from the existing Switzerland-EU treaty. I mean it's almost identical.
If they don't mind sending their soldiers to defend the Pope maybe they would send their diplomats to help the UK.0 -
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.MarqueeMark said:May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
0 -
Yes, she's definitely put the commission in a tough spot here, she's come across as very reasonable, facing down the ERG and uniting behind a single vision for Brexit while making it sound acceptable. There's a glaring hole in the shape of free movement, however, the commission knows that if they turn this down without any consideration or negotiation then May is gone and we really do move towards a no deal Brexit on their insistence.MarqueeMark said:May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
0 -
Cheers - we were acquired yesterday. Press release here:another_richard said:
I gather you have a big business success.SouthamObserver said:
Can I add my congratulations and if you'd like to give details for any PBers who didn't know.
https://www.globebmg.com/law-business-research-combine-globe-business-media-group-create-leading-provider-legal-business-information/
0 -
I think it's going to be a "yes, but we must insist that EU citizens have the same rights as British citizens".Sean_F said:
I think that's overoptimistic. I think this proposal will be rejected out of hand (though I'd be happy to be proved wrong).SouthamObserver said:
I think that where we end up from here will be fine for most people. If the EU27 or Commission end up knocking it back, then they will be making a very big mistake. I just can’t see that happening. The UK has gone a long way, it will no doubt go a little further. That should be enough.MaxPB said:
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."SouthamObserver said:Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Don’t get me wrong - leaving is not going to be good for us, but we’re not staying so the best we can do is to go in the least harmful manner possible.0 -
That's just reminded me.CarlottaVance said:
Were any of the senior folk at the 'gutter' press mentioned by Corbyn's 96 'they're all like Nazis' EDM Jewish?
If they were, doesn't that make all of the signatories official antisemites?0 -
Of course, May is fucked if Southgate comes out as a no-deal Brexiteer.....rottenborough said:
And if England win, then any huffing and puffing from JRM will be lost on the front pages with Southgate worship.Anazina said:
I dare say her scheduling staff identified a window of opportunityrottenborough said:
Did May's team deliberately choose this Friday? No voter will remember any of this beyond 3pm tomorrow afternoon.Anazina said:Mortimer said:
Those of us who talk with non-Londoner Tory voters and members every week could have told you this months ago.CarlottaVance said:
Oh wait, we did...
I hope we win at football tomorrow! Then May can go even softer. The Golden Rule of Brexit is that whatever Young Brexit Fogies say is the prognosis, the opposite is true.rpjs said:
"as if a combined customs territory" looks like a customs union and quacks like a customs union to me. Plus "Due regard" to the CJEU and what seems pretty like the SM in goodsMortimer said:
A Brexit that sees us leave the single market, customs union and ECJ is now considers soft Brexit. What, pray, is hard Brexit now defined as?Big_G_NorthWales said:The bloody difficult woman seems at last to have put her foot down and disloyal cabinet ministers will be out.
She has seen off a hard Brexit, steared towards a path that Parliament are more likely to approve, a softish Brexit and no doubt in years to come, depending on what happens in the EU, a probable move to re-join.
As far as I am concerned I am content tonight
We won’t be rejoining BigG. We’d lose our opt outs.
It all seems pretty damn soft to me.
Brilliant politics from May? Or just luck?0 -
May I add my congratulations.SouthamObserver said:
Cheers - we were acquired yesterday. Press release here:another_richard said:
I gather you have a big business success.SouthamObserver said:
Can I add my congratulations and if you'd like to give details for any PBers who didn't know.
https://www.globebmg.com/law-business-research-combine-globe-business-media-group-create-leading-provider-legal-business-information/0 -
Nonsense. May will win a confidence vote unless someone in the cabinet is trying to oust her, and they’ve just proven she has the measure of them.MaxPB said:
Yes, she's definitely put the commission in a tough spot here, she's come across as very reasonable, facing down the ERG and uniting behind a single vision for Brexit while making it sound acceptable. There's a glaring hole in the shape of free movement, however, the commission knows that if they turn this down without any consideration or negotiation then May is gone and we really do move towards a no deal Brexit on their insistence.MarqueeMark said:May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
0 -
'We could offer you a trade deal after the one I offer Theresa when the rest of the UK leaves the EU'rottenborough said:
"Why don't you leave the UK honey?"HYUFD said:Trump to meet Nicola Sturgeon when he travels to Scotland
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5925045/Donald-Trumps-three-day-UK-trip-cost-30m-include-nuclear-powered-aircraft-carrier.html
0 -
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.rottenborough said:
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.MarqueeMark said:May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
0 -
That would be very foolish by the EU - and It looks like May has already discussed it with Merkel. If they do reject it May will fall then heavens only knows who they’ll have opposite them.Sean_F said:
I think that's overoptimistic. I think this proposal will be rejected out of hand (though I'd be happy to be proved wrong).SouthamObserver said:
I think that where we end up from here will be fine for most people. If the EU27 or Commission end up knocking it back, then they will be making a very big mistake. I just can’t see that happening. The UK has gone a long way, it will no doubt go a little further. That should be enough.MaxPB said:
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."SouthamObserver said:Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Don’t get me wrong - leaving is not going to be good for us, but we’re not staying so the best we can do is to go in the least harmful manner possible.0 -
"Europe Elects
@europeelects
Sweden, Sentio poll:
SD-ECR: 26%
S-S&D: 21% (-1)
M-EPP: 18% (+1)
V-LEFT: 11% (+1)
C-ALDE: 7%
L-ALDE: 6% (-1)
MP-G/EFA: 4% (-1)
KD-EPP: 4% (+1)
PIRAT-G/EFA: 1%
Fi-S&D: 1%
MS-*: 0%
Field work: 28/06/18 – 3/07/18
Sample size: 743
#val2018"0
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