May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
So there we have it, 'Brexit means Brexit' or we leave the EU and the single market but maintain harmonisation on trade rules on goods and 'strong reciprocal arrangements in services', freedom of movement still ends but is replaced by a 'mobility framework', we leave the customs union but will stay in 'a combined customs territory', ECJ jurisdiction ends but the UK 'will pay regard to its decisions in areas where common rules were in force' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44747444
This could have all been avoided if 'Associate Membership' of the EU had existed 10 years ago perhaps? Too little done too late to deal with the unpopularity of the institution, but work much earlier would have dealt with it.
It is ultimately a move towards associate membership of the EU in the longer term
Perhaps, but there'd have been a lot less aggravation if such moves had happened long ago.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
I think that where we end up from here will be fine for most people. If the EU27 or Commission end up knocking it back, then they will be making a very big mistake. I just can’t see that happening. The UK has gone a long way, it will no doubt go a little further. That should be enough.
Don’t get me wrong - leaving is not going to be good for us, but we’re not staying so the best we can do is to go in the least harmful manner possible.
I think that's overoptimistic. I think this proposal will be rejected out of hand (though I'd be happy to be proved wrong).
I think it's going to be a "yes, but we must insist that EU citizens have the same rights as British citizens".
Thing is, if we want to sell (financial) services into the EU we are going to have to adopt and obey every EU reg so that's the full set of compliance.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.
Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.
Where does it say that?
It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.
If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.
Well yes, but it is clear we still need to agree on a backstop just in case something like this is not agreed, and whether we have accepted a principle of splitting our own country is pretty significant.
NI was created by splitting a country. One day which may be soon or years away it will be reunited again.
What a silly way of looking at it. You could equally say ROI was created by a splitting a country and therefore it is inevitable that it will reunite with the UK. There are now circa 200 countries in the world, far more than there were 100 years ago, and I doubt most of those that were split will reunite.
The issue is about the splitting of an existing country, the UK.
How many have reunited as a point of interest ?
East and West Germany North and South Vietnam Errr Is that it ?
I'm sure there's plenty, but given the proliferation of countries in the past century the number that have, or might, will be far less than those that won't.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
I think that where we end up from here will be fine for most people. If the EU27 or Commission end up knocking it back, then they will be making a very big mistake. I just can’t see that happening. The UK has gone a long way, it will no doubt go a little further. That should be enough.
Don’t get me wrong - leaving is not going to be good for us, but we’re not staying so the best we can do is to go in the least harmful manner possible.
I think that's overoptimistic. I think this proposal will be rejected out of hand (though I'd be happy to be proved wrong).
I think it's going to be a "yes, but we must insist that EU citizens have the same rights as British citizens".
Thing is, if we want to sell (financial) services into the EU we are going to have to adopt and obey every EU reg so that's the full set of compliance.
I think it's probably going to be capitalised subsidiaries in Tallinn rather than alignment. The Bank has said enough times that it will not be a rule taker, the treasury seems to have listened.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
I think that where we end up from here will be fine for most people. If the EU27 or Commission end up knocking it back, then they will be making a very big mistake. I just can’t see that happening. The UK has gone a long way, it will no doubt go a little further. That should be enough.
Don’t get me wrong - leaving is not going to be good for us, but we’re not staying so the best we can do is to go in the least harmful manner possible.
I think that's overoptimistic. I think this proposal will be rejected out of hand (though I'd be happy to be proved wrong).
That would be very foolish by the EU - and It looks like May has already discussed it with Merkel. If they do reject it May will fall then heavens only knows who they’ll have opposite them.
Yes I agree with you. The enemy keeps her in place for fear of facing tougher opponent.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Why is our hospital closing? Trains not arriving? Schools cut? Tax cuts, deregulation and bribes to the banking sector. That'll teach the bloody EU.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
I think that where we end up from here will be fine for most people. If the EU27 or Commission end up knocking it back, then they will be making a very big mistake. I just can’t see that happening. The UK has gone a long way, it will no doubt go a little further. That should be enough.
Don’t get me wrong - leaving is not going to be good for us, but we’re not staying so the best we can do is to go in the least harmful manner possible.
I think that's overoptimistic. I think this proposal will be rejected out of hand (though I'd be happy to be proved wrong).
I think it's going to be a "yes, but we must insist that EU citizens have the same rights as British citizens".
Thing is, if we want to sell (financial) services into the EU we are going to have to adopt and obey every EU reg so that's the full set of compliance.
The city have been respectfully silent about the negotiations. I assumed that is because they realised they were not going to get a SM deal and have started setting up subsidiaries and beginning to see the benefits of London not being ruled over?
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Leavers need to lose the capacity for self delusion. The EU will demand FOM, ECJ and money in return for this deal and May will agree. Who is going to stop her?
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
I think that where we end up from here will be fine for most people. If the EU27 or Commission end up knocking it back, then they will be making a very big mistake. I just can’t see that happening. The UK has gone a long way, it will no doubt go a little further. That should be enough.
Don’t get me wrong - leaving is not going to be good for us, but we’re not staying so the best we can do is to go in the least harmful manner possible.
I think that's overoptimistic. I think this proposal will be rejected out of hand (though I'd be happy to be proved wrong).
That would be very foolish by the EU - and It looks like May has already discussed it with Merkel. If they do reject it May will fall then heavens only knows who they’ll have opposite them.
It would be foolish (it's a very good deal, from their point of view). But, it conflicts with the Four Freedoms.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Why is our hospital closing? Trains not arriving? Schools cut? Tax cuts, deregulation and bribes to the banking sector. That'll teach the bloody EU.
We have only just seen the government announce a £20 billion a year splurge for the NHS post Brexit
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Leavers need to lose the capacity for self delusion. The EU will demand FOM, ECJ and money in return for this deal and May will agree. Who is going to stop her?
And they won’t allow a carve out just for financial services.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Where is the line between soft and hard brexit. It was always nonsense that only one type of brexit was 'true' brexit, but I dare say commentators and the public have shifted what they regard as soft, or hard. If May can get something agreed that is too hard for some, too soft for others, but manageable, then that is something - we just have to hope it is, in fact, a good deal, which won't be readily apparent to layman to start with at least.
I am very interested to see how she responds to the next test, whatever it is - if her threat to sack those who now break ranks holds true, then she really will have recovered personal authority, no small achievement given the past year.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Leavers need to lose the capacity for self delusion. The EU will demand FOM, ECJ and money in return for this deal and May will agree. Who is going to stop her?
A deal which includes all four freedoms and ECJ jurisdiction just won't make it though parliament. I know you're on the extremes but this is a reasonable deal, if the EU ask for all four freedoms, then that's just a rejection.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
This is May's final offer, take it or leave it and should at least get us through Brexit and into the transition period
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Why is our hospital closing? Trains not arriving? Schools cut? Tax cuts, deregulation and bribes to the banking sector. That'll teach the bloody EU.
You mean to say "why has borrowing stopped falling". The bribes wouldn't need to be massive and the tax cuts would almost pay for themselves given the new tariff income generated.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
She has boiled the frogs as I suspected she would.
Field work: 28/06/18 – 3/07/18 Sample size: 743 #val2018"
Swedish Democrats opening up a clear lead there and that it will need a Social Democrat and Moderate deal post election to keep them out of power
An alternative would be a minority Moderate Party government with unofficial support from the Sweden Democrats. The same thing happened in Denmark at their last general election.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
I suspect they are not rejecting it outright immediately for that very reason - contrary to the 'The EU no longer care about the pathetic, small UK' crowd, I imagine they are conscious that accidentally pushing us into no deal doesn't help them any, even as it hurts us more - but it does still seem filled with details they have not shown a willingness to bend on in any way. At the least they surely will demand something more than this proposal, and there's still a very real chance May cannot take it any further.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Leavers need to lose the capacity for self delusion. The EU will demand FOM, ECJ and money in return for this deal and May will agree. Who is going to stop her?
A deal which includes all four freedoms and ECJ jurisdiction just won't make it though parliament. I know you're on the extremes but this is a reasonable deal, if the EU ask for all four freedoms, then that's just a rejection.
There won’t be a final deal on any of this at the time the withdrawal agreement is ratified and we formally leave.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
She has boiled the frogs as I suspected she would.
Remainer frogs, we're leaving the EU. It's over and we're never going back in.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Why is our hospital closing? Trains not arriving? Schools cut? Tax cuts, deregulation and bribes to the banking sector. That'll teach the bloody EU.
We have only just seen the government announce a £20 billion a year splurge for the NHS post Brexit
I was arguing that tax cuts, deregulation and subsidies to big banks and finance would simply not be politically feasible at the moment. The splurge (if a below-trend increase can be described as such) has been generally well-received. The political tide, even under a Conservative administration is all the other way.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Leavers need to lose the capacity for self delusion. The EU will demand FOM, ECJ and money in return for this deal and May will agree. Who is going to stop her?
A deal which includes all four freedoms and ECJ jurisdiction just won't make it though parliament. I know you're on the extremes but this is a reasonable deal, if the EU ask for all four freedoms, then that's just a rejection.
There won’t be a final deal on any of this at the time the withdrawal agreement is ratified and we formally leave.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. Even the EU has admitted that part. I do think TSE was on to something when he said A50 may be extended for 6 months or so to facilitate getting the UK-EU CTCP (comprehensive trade and customs partnership) ratified, if they agree to the deal.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Aren’t we all supposed to be pulling together. If you’re happy and I’m happy haven’t we both won?
Of course. It just makes me chuckle.
I mentioned it last night but not sure you saw - congrats on business news!
More than that. May's approach, if agreed, represents a fuller delivery of the Brexiter prospectus than we had any right to expect, given it was at best dodgy and at its worst downright false.
I reckon. delivery was 40:30:20:10 - immigration : economy (iirc >80% thought their vote was the one that would make them better off, and the easiest trade deal/start from their rules etc was a Brexiter clarion call to that) : redirection of EU funding: global Britain, rules freedom.
I reckon May delivers 32:17:14:2 on these, around 65% of a false prospectus. There is no other solution softer or harder that gets within a country mile of delivering the spirit of Brexit like that.
Brexiter - you won, you won bigly, more than you had any right to do. So, suck it up winners, I mean REALLY, REALLY suck it up. Are you with us, or are YOU the traitor, are YOU the saboteur, winner? Well, are you? Brexits coming home.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
She has boiled the frogs as I suspected she would.
Remainer frogs, we're leaving the EU. It's over and we're never going back in.
Not all remainers were still hoping to remain, if that makes sense. Plenty surely would be happy with something softish. The remain ultras are not able to be satisfied any more than leaver ultras. So is this truly soft? Well the unhappiness of the ERG lot show it is surely not as hard as it could be, so technically it is softer than something.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Why is our hospital closing? Trains not arriving? Schools cut? Tax cuts, deregulation and bribes to the banking sector. That'll teach the bloody EU.
You mean to say "why has borrowing stopped falling". The bribes wouldn't need to be massive and the tax cuts would almost pay for themselves given the new tariff income generated.
You may well so argue. The lesson of domestic politics since 2017 suggest it would be a difficult sell.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Leavers need to lose the capacity for self delusion. The EU will demand FOM, ECJ and money in return for this deal and May will agree. Who is going to stop her?
A deal which includes all four freedoms and ECJ jurisdiction just won't make it though parliament. I know you're on the extremes but this is a reasonable deal, if the EU ask for all four freedoms, then that's just a rejection.
There won’t be a final deal on any of this at the time the withdrawal agreement is ratified and we formally leave.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. Even the EU has admitted that part. I do think TSE was on to something when he said A50 may be extended for 6 months or so to facilitate getting the UK-EU CTCP (comprehensive trade and customs partnership) ratified, if they agree to the deal.
The “everything” just includes a political declaration about the future relationship.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
Obviously none of the Tories will stand up to her but the DUP could yet do their duty by the country and pull the plug on the whole thing.
Interesting that while all the Remain-loving, London-based chattering classes are patting themselves on the back about how clever Theresa has been in stitching up the Brexiteers nobody has thought to ask the DUP what they think.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Leavers need to lose the capacity for self delusion. The EU will demand FOM, ECJ and money in return for this deal and May will agree. Who is going to stop her?
A deal which includes all four freedoms and ECJ jurisdiction just won't make it though parliament. I know you're on the extremes but this is a reasonable deal, if the EU ask for all four freedoms, then that's just a rejection.
There won’t be a final deal on any of this at the time the withdrawal agreement is ratified and we formally leave.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. Even the EU has admitted that part. I do think TSE was on to something when he said A50 may be extended for 6 months or so to facilitate getting the UK-EU CTCP (comprehensive trade and customs partnership) ratified, if they agree to the deal.
The “everything” just includes a political declaration about the future relationship.
The everything includes a trade deal.
You've lost. It's over now. We're leaving the EU and we're never going back in. If you want to stay in the EU then your best bet is to move to Germany.
Field work: 28/06/18 – 3/07/18 Sample size: 743 #val2018"
Swedish Democrats opening up a clear lead there and that it will need a Social Democrat and Moderate deal post election to keep them out of power
An alternative would be a minority Moderate Party government with unofficial support from the Sweden Democrats. The same thing happened in Denmark at their last general election.
In Denmark the anti immigration Danish People's Party came second not first behind the Social Democrats and the centre right Venstre, the Liberal Alliance and Conservative People's Party won more seats combined than the DPP too.
On this poll the SD would come first, so it depends if the M have more combined than them with the C and L parties
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Why is our hospital closing? Trains not arriving? Schools cut? Tax cuts, deregulation and bribes to the banking sector. That'll teach the bloody EU.
We have only just seen the government announce a £20 billion a year splurge for the NHS post Brexit
I was arguing that tax cuts, deregulation and subsidies to big banks and finance would simply not be politically feasible at the moment. The splurge (if a below-trend increase can be described as such) has been generally well-received. The political tide, even under a Conservative administration is all the other way.
Certainly we are not going to become Singapore as some of the ultra economically libertarian Brexiteers had hoped
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
Obviously none of the Tories will stand up to her but the DUP would yet do their duty by the country and pull the plug on the whole thing.
I've not seen the detail of what May has proposed, but their presence in the Gov't means that a customs border in the Irish sea is a completely immovable red line that May can not and will not shift on. If Barnier really wants to push the point then that is when no deal becomes storming into view. Everything else I feel is for negotiation by May. But not that.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
I think that where we end up from here will be fine for most people. If the EU27 or Commission end up knocking it back, then they will be making a very big mistake. I just can’t see that happening. The UK has gone a long way, it will no doubt go a little further. That should be enough.
Don’t get me wrong - leaving is not going to be good for us, but we’re not staying so the best we can do is to go in the least harmful manner possible.
I think that's overoptimistic. I think this proposal will be rejected out of hand (though I'd be happy to be proved wrong).
I think it's going to be a "yes, but we must insist that EU citizens have the same rights as British citizens".
Thing is, if we want to sell (financial) services into the EU we are going to have to adopt and obey every EU reg so that's the full set of compliance.
I think it's probably going to be capitalised subsidiaries in Tallinn rather than alignment. The Bank has said enough times that it will not be a rule taker, the treasury seems to have listened.
Not seeing that happening. The FCA and the BoE has often said (I posted the link long ago) that they wouldn't be diverging. How is Nomura (Tallinn) proceeding?
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
She has boiled the frogs as I suspected she would.
Remainer frogs, we're leaving the EU. It's over and we're never going back in.
Within 10 years we will be back in, full rules and euro. - Why? Trying to reinvent the wheel with all the trade agreements in the EU already in place is ultimately, futile.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Why is our hospital closing? Trains not arriving? Schools cut? Tax cuts, deregulation and bribes to the banking sector. That'll teach the bloody EU.
We have only just seen the government announce a £20 billion a year splurge for the NHS post Brexit
I was arguing that tax cuts, deregulation and subsidies to big banks and finance would simply not be politically feasible at the moment. The splurge (if a below-trend increase can be described as such) has been generally well-received. The political tide, even under a Conservative administration is all the other way.
Certainly we are not going to become Singapore as some of the ultra economically libertarian Brexiteers had hoped
Not even with this weather. We are not Singapore, nor, frankly, would I want us to be.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
This is May's final offer, take it or leave it
Yeah right...
It's not whether she might bend further this - it's whether her cabinet and party will bend further than this.
I'd say probably yes, despite the 'no deal' talk I don't think the EU believes us on that and nor do I, but even knowing that the EU must think it cannot push too far too fast, else they would have rejected it already like they have with other options, so they clearly think there is a point at which May won't be able to go further, even if it is not this point as May claims.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
She has boiled the frogs as I suspected she would.
Remainer frogs, we're leaving the EU. It's over and we're never going back in.
Within 10 years we will be back in, full rules and euro. - Why? Trying to reinvent the wheel with all the trade agreements in the EU already in place is ultimately, futile.
Wasn't there a poll showing that No would win by a healthy margin if the question was to rejoin the EU after having left?
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Leavers need to lose the capacity for self delusion. The EU will demand FOM, ECJ and money in return for this deal and May will agree. Who is going to stop her?
A deal which includes all four freedoms and ECJ jurisdiction just won't make it though parliament. I know you're on the extremes but this is a reasonable deal, if the EU ask for all four freedoms, then that's just a rejection.
There won’t be a final deal on any of this at the time the withdrawal agreement is ratified and we formally leave.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. Even the EU has admitted that part. I do think TSE was on to something when he said A50 may be extended for 6 months or so to facilitate getting the UK-EU CTCP (comprehensive trade and customs partnership) ratified, if they agree to the deal.
The “everything” just includes a political declaration about the future relationship.
If an agreement were reached, broadly, about the future relationship, the EU negotiators could turn round, on 30th March 2019, and say "sorry, ha ha, we tricked you.". I really don't think they are that dishonest, but even if they were, I doubt if our government would consider it was under any obligation to fulfil the terms of the withdrawal agreement.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Aren’t we all supposed to be pulling together. If you’re happy and I’m happy haven’t we both won?
Of course. It just makes me chuckle.
I mentioned it last night but not sure you saw - congrats on business news!
More than that. May's approach, if agreed, represents a fuller delivery of the Brexiter prospectus than we had any right to expect, given it was at best dodgy and at its worst downright false.
I reckon. delivery was 40:30:20:10 - immigration : economy (iirc >80% thought their vote was the one that would make them better off, and the easiest trade deal/start from their rules etc was a Brexiter clarion call to that) : redirection of EU funding: global Britain, rules freedom.
I reckon May delivers 32:17:14:2 on these, around 65% of a false prospectus. There is no other solution softer or harder that gets within a country mile of delivering the spirit of Brexit like that.
Brexiter - you won, you won bigly, more than you had any right to do. So, suck it up winners, I mean REALLY, REALLY suck it up. Are you with us, or are YOU the traitor, are YOU the saboteur, winner? Well, are you? Brexits coming home.
Catch me if you can Cos I'm the Brexit Man And what you're looking at Is the master plan We ain't no Xenophobes This ain't a Football song Three lions on my chest I know we can't go wrong!
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
She has boiled the frogs as I suspected she would.
Remainer frogs, we're leaving the EU. It's over and we're never going back in.
Within 10 years we will be back in, full rules and euro. - Why? Trying to reinvent the wheel with all the trade agreements in the EU already in place is ultimately, futile.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Leavers need to lose the capacity for self delusion. The EU will demand FOM, ECJ and money in return for this deal and May will agree. Who is going to stop her?
A deal which includes all four freedoms and ECJ jurisdiction just won't make it though parliament. I know you're on the extremes but this is a reasonable deal, if the EU ask for all four freedoms, then that's just a rejection.
There won’t be a final deal on any of this at the time the withdrawal agreement is ratified and we formally leave.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. Even the EU has admitted that part. I do think TSE was on to something when he said A50 may be extended for 6 months or so to facilitate getting the UK-EU CTCP (comprehensive trade and customs partnership) ratified, if they agree to the deal.
The “everything” just includes a political declaration about the future relationship.
If an agreement were reached, broadly, about the future relationship, the EU negotiators could turn round, on 30th March 2019, and say "sorry, ha ha, we tricked you.". I really don't think they are that dishonest, but even if they were, I doubt if our government would consider it was under any obligation to fulfil the terms of the withdrawal agreement.
That’s not the point. It’s not the EU who will use it to betray the UK government, but the UK government to betray the Brexiteers.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
She has boiled the frogs as I suspected she would.
Remainer frogs, we're leaving the EU. It's over and we're never going back in.
Within 10 years we will be back in, full rules and euro. - Why? Trying to reinvent the wheel with all the trade agreements in the EU already in place is ultimately, futile.
No way, it would have been at least 70-75% Leave not 52% Leave had the Euro been a requirement, this is a sensible compromise
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
She has boiled the frogs as I suspected she would.
Remainer frogs, we're leaving the EU. It's over and we're never going back in.
Within 10 years we will be back in, full rules and euro. - Why? Trying to reinvent the wheel with all the trade agreements in the EU already in place is ultimately, futile.
Wasn't there a poll showing that No would win by a healthy margin if the question was to rejoin the EU after having left?
People are terrible at answering hypothetical questions about which way they’d vote in the future.
It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.
If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.
Well yes, but it is clear we still need to agree on a backstop just in case something like this is not agreed, and whether we have accepted a principle of splitting our own country is pretty significant.
NI was created by splitting a country. One day which may be soon or years away it will be reunited again.
What a silly way of looking at it. You could equally say ROI was created by a splitting a country and therefore it is inevitable that it will reunite with the UK. There are now circa 200 countries in the world, far more than there were 100 years ago, and I doubt most of those that were split will reunite.
The issue is about the splitting of an existing country, the UK.
How many have reunited as a point of interest ?
East and West Germany North and South Vietnam Errr Is that it ?
North and Southern Yemen.
Not an auspicious example though!
Tanganyika and Zanzibar.
I thought about Tanzania but were they ever one country before being split up and then reuniting ?
Or were they two different states which decided to become one ?
The latter, although from 1920 they were both under British colonial rule (Tanganyika, formerly a German colony, as a League of Nations Mandate then UN Trust Territory; and Zanzibar as a nominally sovereign sultanate under a British protectorate since the 1890s). Along with Kenya (part of which was nominally under Zanzibari sovereignty) and Uganda they shared certain institutions such as a common East African airline and railways and harbours administration. Zanzibar achieved indepndence as a monarchy at the end of 1963, but the sultan was overthrown and a republic declared within a month. Three months after that, in April 1963, Zanzibar joined Tanganyika, which had become independent in 1961 and a republic in 1962 to form Tanzania (although that name wasn’t adpted until later in 1964).
Incidentally, Tanzania is like the UK, in that only Zanzibar has a devolved adminstration, with mainland Tanzania, as Tanganyika is now known, being directly administered by the national government.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Why is our hospital closing? Trains not arriving? Schools cut? Tax cuts, deregulation and bribes to the banking sector. That'll teach the bloody EU.
We have only just seen the government announce a £20 billion a year splurge for the NHS post Brexit
I was arguing that tax cuts, deregulation and subsidies to big banks and finance would simply not be politically feasible at the moment. The splurge (if a below-trend increase can be described as such) has been generally well-received. The political tide, even under a Conservative administration is all the other way.
Certainly we are not going to become Singapore as some of the ultra economically libertarian Brexiteers had hoped
Not even with this weather. We are not Singapore, nor, frankly, would I want us to be.
London could just about be a Singapore style city state but it voted Remain anyway
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
She has boiled the frogs as I suspected she would.
Remainer frogs, we're leaving the EU. It's over and we're never going back in.
Within 10 years we will be back in, full rules and euro. - Why? Trying to reinvent the wheel with all the trade agreements in the EU already in place is ultimately, futile.
Wasn't there a poll showing that No would win by a healthy margin if the question was to rejoin the EU after having left?
People are terrible at answering hypothetical questions about which way they’d vote in the future.
So why do people get so excited by polls about support for remain or leave 2 years on, which aren't even normally hypothetical voting questions?
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
She has boiled the frogs as I suspected she would.
Remainer frogs, we're leaving the EU. It's over and we're never going back in.
Within 10 years we will be back in, full rules and euro. - Why? Trying to reinvent the wheel with all the trade agreements in the EU already in place is ultimately, futile.
Wasn't there a poll showing that No would win by a healthy margin if the question was to rejoin the EU after having left?
People are terrible at answering hypothetical questions about which way they’d vote in the future.
I wonder if you'd be saying the same if it had rejoin at a 20 point lead?
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
She has boiled the frogs as I suspected she would.
Remainer frogs, we're leaving the EU. It's over and we're never going back in.
Within 10 years we will be back in, full rules and euro. - Why? Trying to reinvent the wheel with all the trade agreements in the EU already in place is ultimately, futile.
Wasn't there a poll showing that No would win by a healthy margin if the question was to rejoin the EU after having left?
All the No'ers will be in their graves or run through the crematorium As people begin to realise that to protect themselves, they have to join with others to be a greater force, or would you prefer multinational companies to govern you?
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
Yes, she's definitely put the commission in a tough spot here, she's come across as very reasonable, facing down the ERG and uniting behind a single vision for Brexit while making it sound acceptable. There's a glaring hole in the shape of free movement, however, the commission knows that if they turn this down without any consideration or negotiation then May is gone and we really do move towards a no deal Brexit on their insistence.
Nonsense. May will win a confidence vote unless someone in the cabinet is trying to oust her, and they’ve just proven she has the measure of them.
No. This is the moment May and her allies forgot how weak they are. You see, pragmatic minded people believe there is a pragmatic compromise to this mess, they don’t actually understand the principles in play here. I am not just saying this, I have conclusive evidence: If this white paper comes into effect, 99% of the British will feel they ended up with change they are not satisfied with. Remember yes minister review of the papers early 80’s “daily telegraph readers believe this country is already ruled by another country”? The brexit press in 2016 and the whole leave vote based on the same sentiment. BINO does not settle that. In the ‘matter of principle’ lobby, Mogg, Benn, Foot, Field, but look what those in the pragmatism lobby have in common, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, each proud of the fact they climbed to the top of the greasy pole, but where exactly did they leave the country? In a better place?
Rejoice rejoice. The glorious 6th. When pragmatism ruled the day. Miss Pragmatism’s Finest Hour. But Principle? She died.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
Yes, she's definitely put the commission in a tough spot here, she's come across as very reasonable, facing down the ERG and uniting behind a single vision for Brexit while making it sound acceptable. There's a glaring hole in the shape of free movement, however, the commission knows that if they turn this down without any consideration or negotiation then May is gone and we really do move towards a no deal Brexit on their insistence.
Nonsense. May will win a confidence vote unless someone in the cabinet is trying to oust her, and they’ve just proven she has the measure of them.
No. This is the moment May and her allies forgot how weak they are. You see, pragmatic minded people believe there is a pragmatic compromise to this mess, they don’t actually understand the principles in play here. I am not just saying this, I have conclusive evidence: If this white paper comes into effect, 99% of the British will feel they ended up with change they are not satisfied with. Remember yes minister review of the papers early 80’s “daily telegraph readers believe this country is already ruled by another country”? The brexit press in 2016 and the whole leave vote based on the same sentiment. BINO does not settle that. In the ‘matter of principle’ lobby, Mogg, Benn, Foot, Field, but look what those in the pragmatism lobby have in common, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, each proud of the fact they climbed to the top of the greasy pole, but where exactly did they leave the country? In a better place?
Rejoice rejoice. The glorious 6th. When pragmatism ruled the day. Miss Pragmatism’s Finest Hour. But Principle? She died.
That may be true but it doesn’t explain how May loses a confidence vote of Tory MPs before next March.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
She has boiled the frogs as I suspected she would.
Remainer frogs, we're leaving the EU. It's over and we're never going back in.
Within 10 years we will be back in, full rules and euro. - Why? Trying to reinvent the wheel with all the trade agreements in the EU already in place is ultimately, futile.
Wasn't there a poll showing that No would win by a healthy margin if the question was to rejoin the EU after having left?
People are terrible at answering hypothetical questions about which way they’d vote in the future.
So why do people get so excited by polls about support for remain or leave 2 years on, which aren't even normally hypothetical voting questions?
Do you think Brexit was right/wrong isn’t a hypothetical.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Why is our hospital closing? Trains not arriving? Schools cut? Tax cuts, deregulation and bribes to the banking sector. That'll teach the bloody EU.
We have only just seen the government announce a £20 billion a year splurge for the NHS post Brexit
I was arguing that tax cuts, deregulation and subsidies to big banks and finance would simply not be politically feasible at the moment. The splurge (if a below-trend increase can be described as such) has been generally well-received. The political tide, even under a Conservative administration is all the other way.
Certainly we are not going to become Singapore as some of the ultra economically libertarian Brexiteers had hoped
Not even with this weather. We are not Singapore, nor, frankly, would I want us to be.
London could just about be a Singapore style city state but it voted Remain anyway
But it wouldn't though. Singapore is like boiled cabbage. Healthy, clean, green and exceedingly dull. Probably good for a long life, but boy would it seem long. London, at its best, is edgy and exciting. Which is why the young love living there, and move when they have kids. Me? I like a bit of dirt, dissent and danger. But each to their own.
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showing the Leavers in the cabinet to be spineless cowards. She is now free to 'compromise' (eg sell out) on all the other issues. Who is going to stop her?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
She has boiled the frogs as I suspected she would.
Remainer frogs, we're leaving the EU. It's over and we're never going back in.
Within 10 years we will be back in, full rules and euro. - Why? Trying to reinvent the wheel with all the trade agreements in the EU already in place is ultimately, futile.
Wasn't there a poll showing that No would win by a healthy margin if the question was to rejoin the EU after having left?
All the No'ers will be in their graves or run through the crematorium As people begin to realise that to protect themselves, they have to join with others to be a greater force, or would you prefer multinational companies to govern you?
Multinational companies are generally pro EU and the Eurozone has impoverished southern Europe while expanding the wealth of Germany
Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?
Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."
It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.
However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.
Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
Obviously. This was just about showinghe Tories.
She has boiled the frogs as I suspected she would.
Remainer frogs, we're leaving the EU. It's over and we're never going back in.
Within 10 years we will be back in, full rules and euro. - Why? Trying to reinvent the wheel with all the trade agreements in the EU already in place is ultimately, futile.
Wasn't there a poll showing that No would win by a healthy margin if the question was to rejoin the EU after having left?
People are terrible at answering hypothetical questions about which way they’d vote in the future.
So why do people get so excited by polls about support for remain or leave 2 years on, which aren't even normally hypothetical voting questions?
Do you think Brexit was right/wrong isn’t a hypothetical.
My point was it is more meaningless than a poll hypothesizing which way people will vote (since it is not predictive of a vote at all), yet people use a shift in more people saying remain as definitive proof that opinion is shifting in favour of overturning the referendum ie treating it as a measure for hypothetical support for overturning the vote. People are taking something even less indicative than a hypothetical voting intention to...claim public support, eg voting intention, for remain.
We all know people believe polls which back their positions.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Why is our hospital closing? Trains not arriving? Schools cut? Tax cuts, deregulation and bribes to the banking sector. That'll teach the bloody EU.
We have only just seen the government announce a £20 billion a year splurge for the NHS post Brexit
We didn’t see the government properly explain how it was going to pay for the promise.
Field work: 28/06/18 – 3/07/18 Sample size: 743 #val2018"
PR, not even once.
One interesting if easily missed change which happened this week (as highlighted in the latest poll) is that the Sweden Democrats - who were in the EFDD group with UKIP and five star movement - have instead joined the ECR group alongide the U.K. Tories.
The Tories in Brussels have got some criticism for that - but given their group already includes the Polish governing party and the Danish people's party etc the SDs are probably now seem as moderates by comparison!
They may well top the poll in the Swedish general election but there will almost certainly be a grand coalition of the other parties to keep them out of government.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
Yes, she's definitely put the commission in a tough spot here, she's come across as very reasonable, facing down the ERG and uniting behind a single vision for Brexit while making it sound acceptable. There's a glaring hole in the shape of free movement, however, the commission knows that if they turn this down without any consideration or negotiation then May is gone and we really do move towards a no deal Brexit on their insistence.
Nonsense. May will win a confidence vote unless someone in the cabinet is trying to oust her, and they’ve just proven she has the measure of them.
No. This is the moment May and her allies forgot how weak they are. You see, pragmatic minded people believe there is a pragmatic compromise to this mess, they don’t actually understand the principles in play here. I am not just saying this, I have conclusive evidence: If this white paper comes into effect, 99% of the British will feel they ended up with change they are not satisfied with. Remember yes minister review of the papers early 80’s “daily telegraph readers believe this country is already ruled by another country”? The brexit press in 2016 and the whole leave vote based on the same sentiment. BINO does not settle that. In the ‘matter of principle’ lobby, Mogg, Benn, Foot, Field, but look what those in the pragmatism lobby have in common, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, each proud of the fact they climbed to the top of the greasy pole, but where exactly did they leave the country? In a better place?
Rejoice rejoice. The glorious 6th. When pragmatism ruled the day. Miss Pragmatism’s Finest Hour. But Principle? She died.
That may be true but it doesn’t explain how May loses a confidence vote of Tory MPs before next March.
Yes, I agree it doesn’t. It actually says May wins. The latest in a line of winners. But everybody else loses.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
That'll go down well.
If they reject this deal without any negotiation I don't see that the government has any other path. It is a very fair compromise the commission must take it seriously.
Leavers need to lose the capacity for self delusion. The EU will demand FOM, ECJ and money in return for this deal and May will agree. Who is going to stop her?
A deal which includes all four freedoms and ECJ jurisdiction just won't make it though parliament. I know you're on the extremes but this is a reasonable deal, if the EU ask for all four freedoms, then that's just a rejection.
There won’t be a final deal on any of this at the time the withdrawal agreement is ratified and we formally leave.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. Even the EU has admitted that part. I do think TSE was on to something when he said A50 may be extended for 6 months or so to facilitate getting the UK-EU CTCP (comprehensive trade and customs partnership) ratified, if they agree to the deal.
The “everything” just includes a political declaration about the future relationship.
If an agreement were reached, broadly, about the future relationship, the EU negotiators could turn round, on 30th March 2019, and say "sorry, ha ha, we tricked you.". I really don't think they are that dishonest, but even if they were, I doubt if our government would consider it was under any obligation to fulfil the terms of the withdrawal agreement.
That’s not the point. It’s not the EU who will use it to betray the UK government, but the UK government to betray the Brexiteers.
Lol you really are a bit mental. You don't even try to hide it any more.
That’s not the point. It’s not the EU who will use it to betray the UK government, but the UK government to betray the Brexiteers.
Lol you really are a bit mental. You don't even try to hide it any more.
I don't see anything mental about what I wrote. If May is trying to get Brexit over the line, what she'll do is try to keep enough ambiguity about the political declaration to avoid provoking a rebellion and enough 'softness' to make it hard for Labour to vote against it. Then when we're out, she can do the business friendly thing and make further concessions on the final relationship.
May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
Yes, she's definitely put the commission in a tough spot here, she's come across as very reasonable, facing down the ERG and uniting behind a single vision for Brexit while making it sound acceptable. There's a glaring hole in the shape of free movement, however, the commission knows that if they turn this down without any consideration or negotiation then May is gone and we really do move towards a no deal Brexit on their insistence.
Nonsense. May will win a confidence vote unless someone in the cabinet is trying to oust her, and they’ve just proven she has the measure of them.
No. This is the moment May and her allies forgot how weak they are. You see, pragmatic minded people believe there is a pragmatic compromise to this mess, they don’t actually understand the principles in play here. I am not just saying this, I have conclusive evidence: If this white paper comes into effect, 99% of the British will feel they ended up with change they are not satisfied with. Remember yes minister review of the papers early 80’s “daily telegraph readers believe this country is already ruled by another country”? The brexit press in 2016 and the whole leave vote based on the same sentiment. BINO does not settle that. In the ‘matter of principle’ lobby, Mogg, Benn, Foot, Field, but look what those in the pragmatism lobby have in common, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron, May, each proud of the fact they climbed to the top of the greasy pole, but where exactly did they leave the country? In a better place?
Rejoice rejoice. The glorious 6th. When pragmatism ruled the day. Miss Pragmatism’s Finest Hour. But Principle? She died.
Not sure we're on the same page on what "conclusive evidence" means
What a wise politician, firing the starting gun on that contest.
Will he allow that as well - in the interests of artistic freedom of expression - or ban the Trump baby instead?
I said earlier, he'll look like a right twat if he doesn't.
Should be noted though, there do seem to be an increasing number of posts on the crowdfunding thread that are opposing Khan because he's a Muslim. I don't like that at all. I'd much rather attack him as a baby wanting to suck off the EU teat.
for the full picture. The Moderates resigned power despite having a potential majority with SD support as they felt the SDs were beyond the pale, so it's generally thought that whichever non-SD coalition gets most votes will form the next government, tolerated by the others. If you scroll down the Wikipedia page you see the coalition figures - pretty close.
The deal being proposed is basically lifted from the existing Switzerland-EU treaty. I mean it's almost identical.
How is Switzerland doing these days?
Pretty well, but probably having to accept freeish movement from the EU.
No welfare, no free state healthcare and very difficult even to rent a property if you are a non Swiss national unless you get the prized residency permit.
The Swiss as you might say operate freedom of movement in name only. If you aren't doing a well paid job with a long term contract and aren't therefore a clear net contributor they can make life very difficult to get a residency permit. And you must buy private medical insurance.
Too many headbangers whispering voices Brexit on posters too many choices If when why what how much have you got Have you got it do you get it If so how often Which do you choose? The hard or soft option?
for the full picture. The Moderates resigned power despite having a potential majority with SD support as they felt the SDs were beyond the pale, so it's generally thought that whichever non-SD coalition gets most votes will form the next government, tolerated by the others. If you scroll down the Wikipedia page you see the coalition figures - pretty close.
With neither centre left nor centre right coalition having a clear lead the Swedish Democrats could hold the balance of power on many key votes therefore
The deal being proposed is basically lifted from the existing Switzerland-EU treaty. I mean it's almost identical.
How is Switzerland doing these days?
Pretty well, but probably having to accept freeish movement from the EU.
How much freeish? I mean really, given their rules.
It's notable that the headlines for the supposed mobility framework only reference the ability to apply for study and work but not any apparent mechanism for the economically inactive (e.g. Retirees) to do exercise those rights.
So it looks like Brits will lose their right to retire in Spain or France - what we have tended to use it for - but EU nationals will be able to study and work here and probably be able to bring mum and gran over to live too under the extended family unification scheme we agreed to uphold before?
So Brits lose out in net terms again - as the bulk of the FOM our citizens have exercised is for retirement to sunnier climbs not work or study.
So, after the departure of Brazil, the World Cup has now morphed into a European Championships - where we've got past Iceland?
Result!
We are in the final six!
Indeed. Rejoice! We have already exceeded expectations. With a young team and 2 world champion youth teams we have all the ingredients in place for crushing disappointment in Qatar.
Comments
Can you both crumble and be rubbed out?
No, the EU won't reject this offer. May is conspiring with them. They will accept it 'as the basis for discussions bearing in mind the EUs own position on the four freedoms' and then push her to the cliff edge again, demanding ECJ jurisdiction, FOM and money for the deal. May has already signalled she will agree. It will all be about how to structure her lies to the British people. Same as every UK/EU negotiation run by the Tories.
Tax cuts, deregulation and bribes to the banking sector. That'll teach the bloody EU.
I am very interested to see how she responds to the next test, whatever it is - if her threat to sack those who now break ranks holds true, then she really will have recovered personal authority, no small achievement given the past year.
Believe this
was the most Nazi like front cover according to the Jezziahs.
From the Mirror. Owned by famous Nazi/Jew Robert Maxwell.
Well done Jezziahs. You're all officially antisemitic, along with some of your favourite MPs who put their names to that officially antisemitic EDM.
The splurge (if a below-trend increase can be described as such) has been generally well-received. The political tide, even under a Conservative administration is all the other way.
I reckon. delivery was 40:30:20:10 - immigration : economy (iirc >80% thought their vote was the one that would make them better off, and the easiest trade deal/start from their rules etc was a Brexiter clarion call to that) : redirection of EU funding: global Britain, rules freedom.
I reckon May delivers 32:17:14:2 on these, around 65% of a false prospectus. There is no other solution softer or harder that gets within a country mile of delivering the spirit of Brexit like that.
Brexiter - you won, you won bigly, more than you had any right to do. So, suck it up winners, I mean REALLY, REALLY suck it up. Are you with us, or are YOU the traitor, are YOU the saboteur, winner? Well, are you? Brexits coming home.
Obviously none of the Tories will stand up to her but the DUP could yet do their duty by the country and pull the plug on the whole thing.
Interesting that while all the Remain-loving, London-based chattering classes are patting themselves on the back about how clever Theresa has been in stitching up the Brexiteers nobody has thought to ask the DUP what they think.
You've lost. It's over now. We're leaving the EU and we're never going back in. If you want to stay in the EU then your best bet is to move to Germany.
On this poll the SD would come first, so it depends if the M have more combined than them with the C and L parties
Includes things on Brexit and when Mrs May should stand down.
No matter where it comes from.
If Barnier really wants to push the point then that is when no deal becomes storming into view.
Everything else I feel is for negotiation by May. But not that.
Result!
But on that note...gnight all.
I'd say probably yes, despite the 'no deal' talk I don't think the EU believes us on that and nor do I, but even knowing that the EU must think it cannot push too far too fast, else they would have rejected it already like they have with other options, so they clearly think there is a point at which May won't be able to go further, even if it is not this point as May claims.
Cos I'm the Brexit Man
And what you're looking at
Is the master plan
We ain't no Xenophobes
This ain't a Football song
Three lions on my chest
I know we can't go wrong!
Rejoice rejoice. The glorious 6th. When pragmatism ruled the day. Miss Pragmatism’s Finest Hour.
But Principle? She died.
Sadiq is the most hugely popular balloon.
What a wise politician, firing the starting gun on that contest.
London, at its best, is edgy and exciting. Which is why the young love living there, and move when they have kids.
Me? I like a bit of dirt, dissent and danger.
But each to their own.
We all know people believe polls which back their positions.
https://www.nme.com/photos/50-albums-released-in-1985-that-still-sound-great-today-1432721
The Tories in Brussels have got some criticism for that - but given their group already includes the Polish governing party and the Danish people's party etc the SDs are probably now seem as moderates by comparison!
They may well top the poll in the Swedish general election but there will almost certainly be a grand coalition of the other parties to keep them out of government.
But everybody else loses.
Should be noted though, there do seem to be an increasing number of posts on the crowdfunding thread that are opposing Khan because he's a Muslim. I don't like that at all. I'd much rather attack him as a baby wanting to suck off the EU teat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018
for the full picture. The Moderates resigned power despite having a potential majority with SD support as they felt the SDs were beyond the pale, so it's generally thought that whichever non-SD coalition gets most votes will form the next government, tolerated by the others. If you scroll down the Wikipedia page you see the coalition figures - pretty close.
The Swiss as you might say operate freedom of movement in name only. If you aren't doing a well paid job with a long term contract and aren't therefore a clear net contributor they can make life very difficult to get a residency permit. And you must buy private medical insurance.
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brexit on posters too many choices
If when why what how much have you got
Have you got it do you get it
If so how often
Which do you choose?
The hard or soft option?
So it looks like Brits will lose their right to retire in Spain or France - what we have tended to use it for - but EU nationals will be able to study and work here and probably be able to bring mum and gran over to live too under the extended family unification scheme we agreed to uphold before?
So Brits lose out in net terms again - as the bulk of the FOM our citizens have exercised is for retirement to sunnier climbs not work or study.