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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So a cabinet Brexit deal is done and there are no resignations

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    I’m already seeing Brexiteers saying they’d rather stay in than this.

    Dream on.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,730

    How many have reunited as a point of interest ?

    East and West Germany
    North and South Vietnam
    Errr
    Is that it ?
    Yemen
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,059

    Yes, a welcome change from the PM's earlier record on stagecraft.

    The biggest question now is whether the EU side were informed in advance of the fudge and are buying into it. Michel Barnier seems to have been much more conciliatory in tone today than he has been over the last couple of weeks. It's all reminiscent of the December 2017 shenanigans, so I expect it all has been choreographed in advance.
    May Merkel summit yesterday may have been significant
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,606

    It’s a shame Teresa Gorman is no longer with us.
    Don't forget Tony Marlow!
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Indeed, I am not clear from which country NI was "split" except from the Irish Free State to which it belonged for less than 24 hours, between 6 December 1922 and 7 December 1922.
    The Kingdom of Ireland - it was even separately recognised as one entity in the title of the U.K. Post the 1801 act of union until 1922 whereas England, Wales and Scotland were just lumped together as GB. To deny that Ireland was a separate and single entity pre 1922 is ridiculous.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,365

    How many have reunited as a point of interest ?

    East and West Germany
    North and South Vietnam
    Errr
    Is that it ?
    North and Southern Yemen.

    Not an auspicious example though!

    Tanganyika and Zanzibar.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,756

    Yemen
    India and Pakistan and Bangladesh (in my wildest dreams!)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,849

    There comes a point where domestic political considerations kick in. Now that the UK has so publicly conceded so many points and principles, the No Deal scenario becomes a lot more dangerous for the leaders of the EU27, because even though the UK suffers most there are also serious downsides for their countries. Those would now be a whole lot harder to sell given how much ground the UK has conceded, so sticking absolutely to the four freedoms in such circumstances would invite serious opposition. Very few leaders in the EU are in strong enough positions to face that down. There’ll be a negotiation, lines will be blurred further and a deal will be done. We’ll Brexit and not much will change.

    I agree with your sentiments, however, there is no precedent where the EU has watered down or fudged free movement even a single iota. To do so would break one of the EU's golden rules. As I said just now, I'm open to the idea of them doing it, but sceptical. If they compromise on free movement then it opens the door to for a lot of other countries to start forcing similar compromises, even within the EU.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,542
    rpjs said:

    Didn't the New Zealanders offer some FTA negotiators to the UK and were told no thanks, Dr Fox and his pals can handle it all themselves?
    I could say I stand second to none in my contempt for Liam Fox but I'm sure there are many, many people who are able to exceed even my level of contempt which I have for Fox.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,190
    MaxPB said:

    The latter doesn't make sense at all. If anything it would be better for us not to, given that the NHS is completely free. Making EU citizens buy some kind of insurance for NHS cover would be a huge disincentive for unskilled and low wage workers to come. If the oldies in Europe have to pay for insurance in the EU then that's really not our problem.
    Oh in theory of course. But if you talk to anyone in the NHS you’ll see why I say it. Hospitals will never charge or be set up for insurance.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    MaxPB said:

    Due regard is pretty much how the Swiss treaty works, and more often than not it amounts to nothing and the Swiss just do what they want. Customs facilitation looks like pre-clearance, again pretty much lifted from Switzerland. Mobility framework could mean anything right now, it's a blank piece of paper, the issue, as I said is that the EU has form in insisting 100% free movement with trade deals of this type, no fudges, no 90%, you must sign up to the concept of EU citizenship and them being equivalent to one's own citizens.

    I remain open to the idea that the EU would fudge on free movement, but very, very sceptical. To do so would be allowing some form of cakeism and would lead to other nations looking for similar deals on free movement.

    Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,606
    Anazina said:

    I hope we win at football tomorrow! Then May can go even softer. The Golden Rule of Brexit is that whatever Young Brexit Fogies say is the prognosis, the opposite is true.
    Did May's team deliberately choose this Friday? No voter will remember any of this beyond 3pm tomorrow afternoon.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    GIN1138 said:

    Hopefully not.

    We need an end to the shambles now.

    DUP should pull the plug on the whole shower on Monday.
    Yep - this is not a government worthy of the name
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,175
    kle4 said:

    This could have all been avoided if 'Associate Membership' of the EU had existed 10 years ago perhaps? Too little done too late to deal with the unpopularity of the institution, but work much earlier would have dealt with it.
    It is ultimately a move towards associate membership of the EU in the longer term
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,542

    Yemen
    Thanks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,175
    edited July 2018

    Congrats. As I have been saying for months, the Tory party always betrays the UK in Europe. Now, how are you going to cope with the ‘mobility framework’ which is just FOM by another name? Endless rationalisation?

    Or you could just try a principled resignation from the Tory party!
    As you may or may not recall I did vote Remain, as long as we technically leave the EU, the single market, the customs union and end free movement then any deal is fine by me and this deal still technically does all of that.

    The main issue with FOM for me is to get some reflection of the transition controls we could have taken in 2004 and a 'mobility framework' will likely do that
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,772
    Iain Dale not happy either. Happy days.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,542
    Foxy said:

    North and Southern Yemen.

    Not an auspicious example though!

    Tanganyika and Zanzibar.
    I thought about Tanzania but were they ever one country before being split up and then reuniting ?

    Or were they two different states which decided to become one ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Seems BoZo traded any thoughts of the top job for another few months of the ministerial car.

    Brexiteer backbenchers not happy.

    Twat. x2
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,084
    Foxy said:

    North and Southern Yemen.

    Not an auspicious example though!

    Tanganyika and Zanzibar.
    Crimea and Russia
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,756

    How many have reunited as a point of interest ?

    East and West Germany
    North and South Vietnam
    Errr
    Is that it ?
    Saarland and West Germany?
    Biafra and Nigeria?
    CSA and USA?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,849

    Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?

    Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."

    It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.

    However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Pulpstar said:

    I've seen it all tonight, Eastenders actually managed to produce a very moving episode ! I hope Sadiq was watching.

    I forgot it was Shakil's funeral tonight - I understood they were planning to include appearances by friends and families of real life victims which I presume they did. I will catch up on iplayer.

    It is certainly a better show when it's not centred around Danny Dyer and his psycho friend Stuart.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,730
    Newfoundland (and Canada) is another one that might count but can understand why others wouldn't count it.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    MaxPB said:

    I agree with your sentiments, however, there is no precedent where the EU has watered down or fudged free movement even a single iota. To do so would break one of the EU's golden rules. As I said just now, I'm open to the idea of them doing it, but sceptical. If they compromise on free movement then it opens the door to for a lot of other countries to start forcing similar compromises, even within the EU.
    Shock horror it might have to respond to what it’s voters want- something looser I’d say - rather than ever closer union driven by a fanatical elite.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,175
    rpjs said:

    HYUFD will support whatever the Tory party tells him to support.
    I never voted for Brexit in the first place so I am certainly not going to resign over a sensible compromise
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    I could say I stand second to none in my contempt for Liam Fox but I'm sure there are many, many people who are able to exceed even my level of contempt which I have for Fox.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/16/uk-hires-top-new-zealand-trade-negotiator-head-post-brexit-deals/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,849
    Mortimer said:

    Oh in theory of course. But if you talk to anyone in the NHS you’ll see why I say it. Hospitals will never charge or be set up for insurance.
    No need, just use PAYE to charge an additional NHS insurance contribution. Self employed must pay it with their self assessment tax bill. Getting the hospitals to charge for it doesn't make sense anyway.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,550
    MaxPB said:

    The deal being proposed is basically lifted from the existing Switzerland-EU treaty. I mean it's almost identical.

    How is Switzerland doing these days?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,365

    I thought about Tanzania but were they ever one country before being split up and then reuniting ?

    Or were they two different states which decided to become one ?
    I too am not sure of the time course.

    Nigeria and Biafra too, but perhaps that would raise issues over exactly what we mean.

    Certainly fission is more common than fusion, though mutinational trade blocks do seem to be proliferating.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Is EU immigration specifically a political hot potato anywhere in the EU27?

    Yes posted workers is an issue in France and Germany, undercutting wages and social conditions.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    edited July 2018
    MaxPB said:

    Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."

    It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.

    However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.

    I think that where we end up from here will be fine for most people. If the EU27 or Commission end up knocking it back, then they will be making a very big mistake. I just can’t see that happening. The UK has gone a long way, it will no doubt go a little further. That should be enough.

    Don’t get me wrong - leaving is not going to be good for us, but we’re not staying so the best we can do is to go in the least harmful manner possible.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,190
    MaxPB said:

    Not sure (though the phrase Polish plumber originates from France), my point was that they would be watering down one of their four freedoms, the UK would basically be saying we want 2.75 freedoms and "yeah, sure we'll listen to the ECJ, we promise..."

    It's cakeism dressed up in EU language. I'm genuinely surprised that so many ardent remainers are happy with it. It completely takes staying in the EU off the table and rejoin off the table and it begins a decade long divergence from the EU.

    However, the fact that it has the likes of yourself and myself on board means it's probably a reasonably good compromise.
    Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,542
    Mortimer said:

    Oh in theory of course. But if you talk to anyone in the NHS you’ll see why I say it. Hospitals will never charge or be set up for insurance.
    Make it a requirement for employment.

    And bring in a employment charge on businesses for each immigrant they employ - charge to be zero for all immigrants who earn more than average earnings so as not to impact higher value workers.

    Its about time those companies which rely on taxpayer subsidised minimum wage migrant labour start to pay a contribution for the financial and social costs their business model causes this country.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    TOPPING said:

    Iain Dale not happy either. Happy days.

    Annoying all the right people....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    One further thought: Watch Gove. He is the key to this now.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,849
    rcs1000 said:

    How is Switzerland doing these days?
    I'm back in London permanently now, but it was doing pretty well when I left!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,606

    One further thought: Watch Gove. He is the key to this now.

    He's clever enough to wait to see what EU do next.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,175
    edited July 2018
    MaxPB said:

    I agree with your sentiments, however, there is no precedent where the EU has watered down or fudged free movement even a single iota. To do so would break one of the EU's golden rules. As I said just now, I'm open to the idea of them doing it, but sceptical. If they compromise on free movement then it opens the door to for a lot of other countries to start forcing similar compromises, even within the EU.
    Remember though only the UK and Sweden and Ireland of nations within the EU/EEA allowed full free movement from the main first wave of the new accession nations to the EU from Eastern Europe without transition controls from 2004 to 2011, so in a sense we are 'owed' a concession on free movement considering we have agreed to have more of it than almost any other EU/EEA nation
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,880
    edited July 2018

    hard Brexit is over and we move on

    You wish...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,190
    MaxPB said:

    No need, just use PAYE to charge an additional NHS insurance contribution. Self employed must pay it with their self assessment tax bill. Getting the hospitals to charge for it doesn't make sense anyway.
    Good idea.

    Too much wine imbibed and sun absorbed at Tory event this evening to have creative thoughts. Well done sir.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,101
    Scott_P said:
    That’s clever. A vacancy in the FO is a nice reward for loyalty.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,654

    Saarland and West Germany?
    Biafra and Nigeria?
    CSA and USA?
    North and South Yemen. Although, that is not a model for anybody to follow. Especially having North Yemen and South Yemen military units not integrated - but in adjacent barracks. What could possibly go wrong?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,849
    Mortimer said:

    Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.

    I think they are right. Regulatory alignment for goods, customs facilitation and "due regard" (whatever that means) for the ECJ. It is a soft Brexit, however, it's definitely not an EEA/Customs Union Brexit that so many were after, it's also not going to be easy to reverse once it's in place which is why I'm surprised that the remainers are jumping on board so easily.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,190

    Make it a requirement for employment.

    And bring in a employment charge on businesses for each immigrant they employ - charge to be zero for all immigrants who earn more than average earnings so as not to impact higher value workers.

    Its about time those companies which rely on taxpayer subsidised minimum wage migrant labour start to pay a contribution for the financial and social costs their business model causes this country.
    +1
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,546
    edited July 2018

    Yemen
    China and Tibet
    Russia and Eastern Donbass
    Germany and Austria, Danzig, Pozen.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Now that BoZo has folded, JRM is the next Great White Hope.

    If he bottles it too, the Brexiteers will be as sad as Nadine at BoZo's pity party
  • glwglw Posts: 10,382

    Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.

    Remember Cameron and that whole regnegotiation palaver? If he'd come back with something like what has been agreed by the cabinet today most people would have been delighted and called it a great success.

    Now the EU still needs to agree to it, but I've long felt we'll probably end up where we should have started from. A bit less free movement, outside the EU, still able to trade, and able to diverge if it suits us.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,542
    MaxPB said:

    No need, just use PAYE to charge an additional NHS insurance contribution. Self employed must pay it with their self assessment tax bill. Getting the hospitals to charge for it doesn't make sense anyway.
    That's a good idea.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,606
    rcs1000 said:

    How is Switzerland doing these days?
    The Gnomes of Zurich will be fine.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    I thought about Tanzania but were they ever one country before being split up and then reuniting ?

    Or were they two different states which decided to become one ?
    You can count Germany multiple times. Holy Roman Empire - petty states - German Empire/Weimar/Nazis - E/W Germany - reunified Germany.

    Russia kind of counts as well. It was a single Rus originally but had already broken up to a substantial extent before the Mongols shattered it and the Princes of Moscow subsequently reunited it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,849

    I think that where we end up from here will be fine for most people. If the EU27 or Commission end up knocking it back, then they will be making a very big mistake. I just can’t see that happening. The UK has gone a long way, it will no doubt go a little further. That should be enough.

    Don’t get me wrong - leaving is not going to be good for us, but we’re not staying so the best we can do is to go in the least harmful manner possible.

    You're probably right, I just think the commission are much less flexible with the four freedoms than we'd like.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,542



    I gather you have a big business success.

    Can I add my congratulations and if you'd like to give details for any PBers who didn't know.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    Mortimer said:

    Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.

    Aren’t we all supposed to be pulling together. If you’re happy and I’m happy haven’t we both won?

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,908
    Very good tactics by May to get them all to Chequers and then make a show of reimposing collective responsibility, especially if they’ve agreed to something down the line that will be explosive. There’ll be a kind of omertà hanging over them.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,772
    Mortimer said:

    Even better, they think it is soft Brexit.

    Too much wine for you. This is the opening of the flood gates. The rest of the red lines whatever they were will now crumble.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,190

    Aren’t we all supposed to be pulling together. If you’re happy and I’m happy haven’t we both won?

    Of course. It just makes me chuckle.

    I mentioned it last night but not sure you saw - congrats on business news!
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Did May's team deliberately choose this Friday? No voter will remember any of this beyond 3pm tomorrow afternoon.
    I dare say her scheduling staff identified a window of opportunity
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,772
    So with Brazil going out I am green on anyone winning the WC apart from Russia or Croatia.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,190
    MaxPB said:

    I think they are right. Regulatory alignment for goods, customs facilitation and "due regard" (whatever that means) for the ECJ. It is a soft Brexit, however, it's definitely not an EEA/Customs Union Brexit that so many were after, it's also not going to be easy to reverse once it's in place which is why I'm surprised that the remainers are jumping on board so easily.
    The same path to divergence attracts me.

    Now, if we can find some way to stop the EU trying to pass this silly antiques bill...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,849
    TOPPING said:

    So with Brazil going out I am green on anyone winning the WC apart from Russia or Croatia.

    Nice result. Who's your biggest winner?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,542
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,606
    edited July 2018
    Much more talk like this and the 48 letters will be there by Monday

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1015358241256169472
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,606
    HYUFD said:
    "Why don't you leave the UK honey?"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,606
    MaxPB said:

    Nice result. Who's your biggest winner?
    I'm green on all but Russia and Sweden
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,654
    May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    Mortimer said:

    Of course. It just makes me chuckle.

    I mentioned it last night but not sure you saw - congrats on business news!

    Thank-you!!

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,190

    I'm green on all but Russia and Sweden
    All green....

    *buffs nails*
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,546

    I think that where we end up from here will be fine for most people. If the EU27 or Commission end up knocking it back, then they will be making a very big mistake. I just can’t see that happening. The UK has gone a long way, it will no doubt go a little further. That should be enough.

    Don’t get me wrong - leaving is not going to be good for us, but we’re not staying so the best we can do is to go in the least harmful manner possible.

    I think that's overoptimistic. I think this proposal will be rejected out of hand (though I'd be happy to be proved wrong).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,980

    You can count Germany multiple times. Holy Roman Empire - petty states - German Empire/Weimar/Nazis - E/W Germany - reunified Germany.

    Russia kind of counts as well. It was a single Rus originally but had already broken up to a substantial extent before the Mongols shattered it and the Princes of Moscow subsequently reunited it.
    China has done so many times. Fragmented, re-united, fragmented.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,606
    Anazina said:

    I dare say her scheduling staff identified a window of opportunity
    And if England win, then any huffing and puffing from JRM will be lost on the front pages with Southgate worship.

    Brilliant politics from May? Or just luck?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I could say I stand second to none in my contempt for Liam Fox but I'm sure there are many, many people who are able to exceed even my level of contempt which I have for Fox.
    FWIW Stephen Harper and Liam Fox gave speeches at the IFT last week (I couldn’t go so a colleague took my place). Fox was embarrassingly poor. Harper was great as was Hannan.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,772
    MaxPB said:

    Nice result. Who's your biggest winner?
    *Embarrassed*

    England.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,606

    May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."

    EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,849

    May won't be able to lock down dissent if the EU says no. She has basically been put in the position of telling the EU "take it or leave it - but if you leave it, there will be no deal on offer from my successor..."

    Yes, she's definitely put the commission in a tough spot here, she's come across as very reasonable, facing down the ERG and uniting behind a single vision for Brexit while making it sound acceptable. There's a glaring hole in the shape of free movement, however, the commission knows that if they turn this down without any consideration or negotiation then May is gone and we really do move towards a no deal Brexit on their insistence.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    I gather you have a big business success.

    Can I add my congratulations and if you'd like to give details for any PBers who didn't know.

    Cheers - we were acquired yesterday. Press release here:

    https://www.globebmg.com/law-business-research-combine-globe-business-media-group-create-leading-provider-legal-business-information/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,849
    Sean_F said:

    I think that's overoptimistic. I think this proposal will be rejected out of hand (though I'd be happy to be proved wrong).
    I think it's going to be a "yes, but we must insist that EU citizens have the same rights as British citizens".
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    That's just reminded me.

    Were any of the senior folk at the 'gutter' press mentioned by Corbyn's 96 'they're all like Nazis' EDM Jewish?

    If they were, doesn't that make all of the signatories official antisemites?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,654

    And if England win, then any huffing and puffing from JRM will be lost on the front pages with Southgate worship.

    Brilliant politics from May? Or just luck?
    Of course, May is fucked if Southgate comes out as a no-deal Brexiteer.....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,980

    Cheers - we were acquired yesterday. Press release here:

    https://www.globebmg.com/law-business-research-combine-globe-business-media-group-create-leading-provider-legal-business-information/
    May I add my congratulations.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,908
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, she's definitely put the commission in a tough spot here, she's come across as very reasonable, facing down the ERG and uniting behind a single vision for Brexit while making it sound acceptable. There's a glaring hole in the shape of free movement, however, the commission knows that if they turn this down without any consideration or negotiation then May is gone and we really do move towards a no deal Brexit on their insistence.
    Nonsense. May will win a confidence vote unless someone in the cabinet is trying to oust her, and they’ve just proven she has the measure of them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,175
    'We could offer you a trade deal after the one I offer Theresa when the rest of the UK leaves the EU'
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,849

    EU may say, "Yes, but..." and around we go again.
    Indeed. However, if they reject it out of hand then the commission will be blamed for no deal and it gives the government licence to get on with a hostile Brexit which includes tax cuts, deregulation and specific country deals (bribes) service industries.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Sean_F said:

    I think that's overoptimistic. I think this proposal will be rejected out of hand (though I'd be happy to be proved wrong).
    That would be very foolish by the EU - and It looks like May has already discussed it with Merkel. If they do reject it May will fall then heavens only knows who they’ll have opposite them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Europe Elects
    @europeelects

    Sweden, Sentio poll:

    SD-ECR: 26%
    S-S&D: 21% (-1)
    M-EPP: 18% (+1)
    V-LEFT: 11% (+1)
    C-ALDE: 7%
    L-ALDE: 6% (-1)
    MP-G/EFA: 4% (-1)
    KD-EPP: 4% (+1)
    PIRAT-G/EFA: 1%
    Fi-S&D: 1%
    MS-*: 0%

    Field work: 28/06/18 – 3/07/18
    Sample size: 743
    #val2018"
This discussion has been closed.