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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So a cabinet Brexit deal is done and there are no resignations

SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited July 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So a cabinet Brexit deal is done and there are no resignations

The Cabinet has signed up to the May plan for Brexit. Question we don’t yet know the answer to – why did Brexiteers agree to a plan they dislike? Is it because they think it will be rejected by the EU? If so, May has won battle but war far from over. https://t.co/y5moqza7hs

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    It was the lack of cabs wot done it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Agree with Nick Robinson, battle won, war far from over - expecting ructions in October....
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Feck em all - look forward to them all getting their p45s
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    edited July 2018
    Letter from May to Tory MPs tonight. One wrong word and you're out.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DhcsOPdX4AAoDip.jpg:large

    Boris - please note.

    Sterling has hardly moved. I would have expected it to strengthen a bit.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Still - one silver lining - perhaps less of the anti brexit propaganda threads here now?
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    They folded like a cheap suit.
    Shame because the potential cabinet members like Rishi Sunak and Suella Bravaman, who both gave good performances in front of leading Conservative Councillors this week in Birmingham deserve to get their feet under the table sooner than later.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    May called the Brexiteers bluff.

    If Boris failed to resign over Heathrow, he would not over this. The man is a nefarious self-serving shyster.

    May is proposing a worse deal than the one we have at the moment!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    And if the EU say nope....?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Stepping back - isn't this how democracy and Cabinet government is supposed to work? Rows in private, unity in public - feels refreshing compared to the ex-Cathedra pronouncements from Brussels.....
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    MarqueeMark said:

    And if the EU say nope....?

    What if they say "oui"!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The_Taxman said:


    May is proposing a worse deal than the one we have at the moment!

    In case you hadn't noticed.....the voters don't want the one we have at the moment.....
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    CarlottaVance said:

    The_Taxman said:


    May is proposing a worse deal than the one we have at the moment!

    In case you hadn't noticed.....the voters don't want the one we have at the moment.....
    Yes but I thought Leave claimed we would have a better deal outside the EU. It does not seem a very intelligent position to get a worse deal.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1015328865500258304
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    So far the stagecraft and expectation management from no10 has been first rate. We'll know in a couple of days if it has worked.
  • LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457
    Tonight it’s a May triumph! Her finest hour.

    By Tuesday lunchtime it will be the worst of all worlds Brexit. The ‘havnt the bottle to properly Brexit’ Brexit. And she’ll be gone.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    kle4 said:

    Include a mobility framework so that UK and EU citizens can continue to travel to each other’s territories, and apply for study and work – similar to what the UK may offer other close trading partners in the future

    Something tells me the part after the hyphen was added after the first draft. This one too.

    end vast annual payments to the EU budget, with appropriate contributions for joint action in specific areas, such as science and innovation, releasing funds for domestic priorities – in particular our long-term plan for the NHS

    And thank goodness 'vast' payments will end. Perhaps they will merely be 'huge'?

    Very perceptive.

    The "mobility framework" sounds like free movement for study and work for other close trading partners as well as the EU.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Mail:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1015333087612493825
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Jonathan said:

    So far the stagecraft and expectation management from no10 has been first rate. We'll know in a couple of days if it has worked.

    It won't survive first contact with the enemy the EU.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752
    Jonathan said:

    So far the stagecraft and expectation management from no10 has been first rate. We'll know in a couple of days if it has worked.

    It's got a Gordon Brown budget written all over it. I think May could end up pleasing no-one.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1015333430354173952
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    So far it seems to be annoying all the right people.....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    edited July 2018
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1015333430354173952

    He'll read it. Ooooo aren't we lucky. Seriously, these bureaucrats are pompous arses.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Shock horror, the headcases fail to resign for 52nd time.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    At first blush some of this seems so eminently sensible and obvious that you wonder why the flip it couldn't have been agreed as the take it or leave it offer to the EU two years ago. Had we done that we might have got away with it.

    All feels a bit late now. The EU knows it's their way or the highway....

    Hope this sticks and we get it.

    Then diverge as we wish in the years ahead.

    The long game. But the right game.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Theresa is the best, she should be making plans for being the Tory leader/PM for the next decade at least.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1015333298996961283
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    What does the single market in services look like?

    To me, in the legal industry, the idea of cross-qualification is fanciful anyway. 'd be much more concerned about establishment, travel, and customs.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Didn't I say all along that I had no idea what Soubry, Grieve, etc... Have been complaining about?

    Theresa has been stringing Brexiteers along all this time but it was obvious she was the gift that kept on giving for Remainers...

    Her true colours are now reveled. Those who voted Leave and have seen our votes betrayed must steal ourselves for revenge on May and the Tories.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theresa is the best, she should be making plans for being the Tory leader/PM for the next decade at least.

    '17 was her '23. Maybe '22 will be her '24? :D
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    CarlottaVance said:

    The Mail:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1015333087612493825

    Those of us who talk with non-Londoner Tory voters and members every week could have told you this months ago.

    Oh wait, we did...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    I'm giggling like an idiot that Liam Fox was bought off by the potential of us maybe joining TPP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    DavidL said:

    So we agree that we have the same relationship so far as goods is concerned but we accept less access for services. How is that in our interests exactly?

    We would strike different arrangements for services, where it is in our interests to have regulatory flexibility, recognising the UK and the EU will not have current levels of access to each other’s markets

    Lower level of access but more flexibility? Not immediately persuasive, but the details are easy to bamboozle.
    NickPalmer said:

    rpjs said:

    So the red lines are turning rather pink. No CJEU jurisdiction becomes giving "due regard" to its decisions, ending to free movement becomes a "mobility framework", and ending contributions to the EU becomes "appropriate payments". EEA with fig leaves is going to be the final outcome.

    I've been predicting fudge rather than drama for some time, and the EU is always up for fudge. .
    Except on the NI border apparently.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1015329148536049665

    Wouldn't it be wiser to hold off on twitter for a day or so? If people make quotes like this end up doing nothing it will be very easy to throw back in their faces.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752
    https://twitter.com/MatthewOToole2/status/1015335213545803778

    Can the government keep the DUP on board?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    MarqueeMark said:

    And if the EU say nope....?

    What are they likely to object to?

    It looks as we are going to agree to the EU version of the backstop so that's OK.

    The EU may object to the complexity and extra work of the customs arrangement and only agree to an extended period of the current customs union until both parties agree the technology is in place (which may be never). The UK can spin this as the intention is to implement a customs arrangement with free trading opportunity when the technology is in place (sotto voce - which may be never).

    Common rule book may work. It's just a face saving exercise for the UK.

    Mobility framework and money is subject to negotiation.

    I think there is the bones of a deal here.

    Worse than the present arrangement but better than most of the other possibilities.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    The bloody difficult woman seems at last to have put her foot down and disloyal cabinet ministers will be out.

    She has seen off a hard Brexit, steared towards a path that Parliament are more likely to approve, a softish Brexit and no doubt in years to come, depending on what happens in the EU, a probable move to re-join.

    As far as I am concerned I am content tonight
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mortimer said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The Mail:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1015333087612493825

    Those of us who talk with non-Londoner Tory voters and members every week could have told you this months ago.

    Oh wait, we did...
    I haven't seen the poll the Mail is citing - anyone seen the questions? (It was done by a pro-Leave group, so some caution may be wise..)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/MatthewOToole2/status/1015335213545803778

    Can the government keep the DUP on board?

    Hopefully not.

    We need an end to the shambles now.

    DUP should pull the plug on the whole shower on Monday.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1015328865500258304

    I was never a huge fan of May even when she was riding high (though I didn't dislike her) but it would be about damn time. Whether she has the power to see that threat through is another matter.
  • LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457
    CarlottaVance said:

    So far it seems to be annoying all the right people.....

    It’s even more humorous the more you learn about it. A picture of people in a hole and you are wondering, just how much deeper can they dig themselves in, just how much more difficult can they make it for themselves.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1015336486261198848
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,910
    Evening all :)

    As a non-Conservative LEAVE voter a predictably disappointing and anticlimactic end to the "great showdown".

    Another can, another kicking, another length of road.

    The EU might be happy with what's being proposed - if they can understand it, I was struggling to make head or tail. It's the kind of thing that can mean anything to anyone but I suppose that's the point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    bunnco said:

    They folded like a cheap suit.
    Shame because the potential cabinet members like Rishi Sunak and Suella Bravaman, who both gave good performances in front of leading Conservative Councillors this week in Birmingham deserve to get their feet under the table sooner than later.

    An interesting point - a clearout honestly would probably be a good thing, particularly since there will still be plenty of leaks and moaning.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    The bloody difficult woman seems at last to have put her foot down and disloyal cabinet ministers will be out.

    She has seen off a hard Brexit, steared towards a path that Parliament are more likely to approve, a softish Brexit and no doubt in years to come, depending on what happens in the EU, a probable move to re-join.

    As far as I am concerned I am content tonight

    Big G backs May shocker!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited July 2018
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    The bloody difficult woman seems at last to have put her foot down and disloyal cabinet ministers will be out.

    She has seen off a hard Brexit, steared towards a path that Parliament are more likely to approve, a softish Brexit and no doubt in years to come, depending on what happens in the EU, a probable move to re-join.

    As far as I am concerned I am content tonight

    A Brexit that sees us leave the single market, customs union and ECJ is now considers soft Brexit. What, pray, is hard Brexit now defined as?

    We won’t be rejoining BigG. We’d lose our opt outs.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    GIN1138 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/MatthewOToole2/status/1015335213545803778

    Can the government keep the DUP on board?

    Hopefully not.

    We need an end to the shambles now.

    DUP should pull the plug on the whole shower on Monday.
    It is over for a hard Brexit
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    The deal being proposed is basically lifted from the existing Switzerland-EU treaty. I mean it's almost identical.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1015336912687697920
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1015334613571588097
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1015337140635553794
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited July 2018
    Mortimer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    The bloody difficult woman seems at last to have put her foot down and disloyal cabinet ministers will be out.

    She has seen off a hard Brexit, steared towards a path that Parliament are more likely to approve, a softish Brexit and no doubt in years to come, depending on what happens in the EU, a probable move to re-join.

    As far as I am concerned I am content tonight

    A Brexit that sees us leave the single market, customs union and ECJ is now considers soft Brexit. What, pray, is hard Brexit now defines.

    We won’t be rejoining BigG. We’d lose our opt outs.
    Some years down the line and dependent on how the EU looks then I can see a move to rejoin
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1015337140635553794

    Lol.

    Someone is forgetting the golden rule of Brexit...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Jonathan said:

    So far the stagecraft and expectation management from no10 has been first rate. We'll know in a couple of days if it has worked.

    Yes, such is usually the way of things - remainers/brexiteers reveling in a 'win' seems to unravel things in any case as well, as the very fact of the revelry tells the other side they need to start agitating.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,630
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm giggling like an idiot that Liam Fox was bought off by the potential of us maybe joining TPP.

    There's always been and always will be the potential to join TPP but there's no way that was ever going to happen.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1015337140635553794

    That's weapons grade trolling.

    Osborne?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    The bloody difficult woman seems at last to have put her foot down and disloyal cabinet ministers will be out.

    She has seen off a hard Brexit, steared towards a path that Parliament are more likely to approve, a softish Brexit and no doubt in years to come, depending on what happens in the EU, a probable move to re-join.

    As far as I am concerned I am content tonight

    Abandoning your manifesto commitments and millions of your own voters in safe seats and marginals is of course something to rejoice over...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Tbh, it's not that objectionable. I don't see how the EU agrees to it without free movement of people though. That would be an absolutely massive climb down for them to accept what the government is proposing and not enforce free movement.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1015337140635553794

    Lol.

    Someone is forgetting the golden rule of Brexit...
    Yes, Brexiteers said Brexit would be easy and nowt but sunlit uplands. They were wrong.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,630
    Alternative thought for today - Brazil would be better off without Neymar.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited July 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1015337140635553794

    Not even 'staying in the single market & customs union'?

    They hid that well.....
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,910
    MaxPB said:

    The deal being proposed is basically lifted from the existing Switzerland-EU treaty. I mean it's almost identical.

    I was always told the EU regretted the Swiss Treaties as they thought the Swiss had outmanoeuvred them in the negotiation.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916
    The press are bit crap at this Brexit thing. They overhyped the divorce bill, the transition deal, and now this cabinet agreement. Maybe, just maybe, the people in government aren't quite as polarised or daft as we keep being told.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    Jonathan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    The bloody difficult woman seems at last to have put her foot down and disloyal cabinet ministers will be out.

    She has seen off a hard Brexit, steared towards a path that Parliament are more likely to approve, a softish Brexit and no doubt in years to come, depending on what happens in the EU, a probable move to re-join.

    As far as I am concerned I am content tonight

    Big G backs May shocker!
    Many will - but the hard Brexiteers will be unhappy. Maybe also those who want to stay in as this extinguishes that as much as a hard Brexit
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Jonathan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1015337140635553794

    That's weapons grade trolling.

    Osborne?
    George doesn't troll.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, it's not that objectionable. I don't see how the EU agrees to it without free movement of people though. That would be an absolutely massive climb down for them to accept what the government is proposing and not enforce free movement.

    Yep.....that's the major stumbling block......
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,630
    Today's Tesco Strawberry score remains at eight:

    Aberdeenshire
    Angus
    Pethshire
    Fife
    Staffordshire
    Cambridgeshire
    Herefordshire
    Kent

    Still no Scottish raspberries, still not shortage of lettuce.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1015337539241201664
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, it's not that objectionable. I don't see how the EU agrees to it without free movement of people though. That would be an absolutely massive climb down for them to accept what the government is proposing and not enforce free movement.

    It’s not. I don’t see it as a final settlement, but it’ll do for now.

    I’ll be staggered if the EU accept it, though....
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, it's not that objectionable. I don't see how the EU agrees to it without free movement of people though. That would be an absolutely massive climb down for them to accept what the government is proposing and not enforce free movement.

    Well lets see what the detail of the "mobility framework" is shall we? I suspect it will be FOM with a fig leaf.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916
    CarlottaVance said:

    So far it seems to be annoying all the right people.....

    ++ I hope JRM is foaming at the mouth.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    The deal being proposed is basically lifted from the existing Switzerland-EU treaty. I mean it's almost identical.

    I was always told the EU regretted the Swiss Treaties as they thought the Swiss had outmanoeuvred them in the negotiation.
    It's a good comprise deal for everyone involved though and it has a basis in reality. What will be very difficult to sell for the government is putting all of this forwards without the EU saying "yes, but we insist on free movement". I think no deal comes back on to the table if the EU insist on free movement.
  • LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1015337539241201664

    Remainers and Remain media flock to bolster her.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015338467058946051
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Bob__Sykes said:

    At first blush some of this seems so eminently sensible and obvious that you wonder why the flip it couldn't have been agreed as the take it or leave it offer to the EU two years ago. Had we done that we might have got away with it.

    All feels a bit late now. The EU knows it's their way or the highway....

    Hope this sticks and we get it.

    Then diverge as we wish in the years ahead.

    The long game. But the right game.

    No, the EU will be broadly OK with this - something rather like the status quo plus layers of fudge, with manufacturing unaffected and UK services somewhat marginalised. There will be fraught negotiations to the end, but I'd think it's a basis for a deal.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015338467058946051

    Ex Cameron aide doesn’t get the public’s objection to free movement shocker.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Worth remembering this is a starting point. There’ll be further concessions in the negotiations. All this could have been sorted ages ago. It wasn’t because no-one in the government understood any of the issues.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    LordOfReason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1015337539241201664

    Remainers and Remain media flock to bolster her.
    Douglas Carswell is a Remainer?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015338467058946051

    Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    Now May needs an England win to deny oxygen to her critics.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    rpjs said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tbh, it's not that objectionable. I don't see how the EU agrees to it without free movement of people though. That would be an absolutely massive climb down for them to accept what the government is proposing and not enforce free movement.

    Well lets see what the detail of the "mobility framework" is shall we? I suspect it will be FOM with a fig leaf.
    Quite. That's what it's all about. It's a fig tree.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015338467058946051

    Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.
    Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    edited July 2018
    LordOfReason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1015337539241201664

    Remainers and Remain media flock to bolster her.
    As has long been noted some kind of soft Brexit is probably acceptable to the majority of the public (on the basis that most remainers, though not all, would prefer that, and some leavers, though not most, would prefer it) but getting such a deal through her own party would be the major challenge. Not sure that is done yet, since some versions of soft are harder than others, if that makes sense.

    (polling on soft vs hard I think is not definitive, since what each means is unclear - something clearly not extremely hard is still soft, even if it is quite hard, or would have been called hard initially)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    NickPalmer said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    At first blush some of this seems so eminently sensible and obvious that you wonder why the flip it couldn't have been agreed as the take it or leave it offer to the EU two years ago. Had we done that we might have got away with it.

    All feels a bit late now. The EU knows it's their way or the highway....

    Hope this sticks and we get it.

    Then diverge as we wish in the years ahead.

    The long game. But the right game.

    No, the EU will be broadly OK with this - something rather like the status quo plus layers of fudge, with manufacturing unaffected and UK services somewhat marginalised. There will be fraught negotiations to the end, but I'd think it's a basis for a deal.
    I don't see how the EU allows for the UK to essentially copy the Swiss arrangements without insisting on free movement of people. That's going to be a very, very tough sell for May in Brussels.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    NickPalmer said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    At first blush some of this seems so eminently sensible and obvious that you wonder why the flip it couldn't have been agreed as the take it or leave it offer to the EU two years ago. Had we done that we might have got away with it.

    All feels a bit late now. The EU knows it's their way or the highway....

    Hope this sticks and we get it.

    Then diverge as we wish in the years ahead.

    The long game. But the right game.

    No, the EU will be broadly OK with this - something rather like the status quo plus layers of fudge, with manufacturing unaffected and UK services somewhat marginalised. There will be fraught negotiations to the end, but I'd think it's a basis for a deal.
    I agree.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    The deal being proposed is basically lifted from the existing Switzerland-EU treaty. I mean it's almost identical.

    I was always told the EU regretted the Swiss Treaties as they thought the Swiss had outmanoeuvred them in the negotiation.
    It's a good comprise deal for everyone involved though and it has a basis in reality. What will be very difficult to sell for the government is putting all of this forwards without the EU saying "yes, but we insist on free movement". I think no deal comes back on to the table if the EU insist on free movement.

    There’ll be a fudge. If EU citizens can come here, look for work and get the right to stay with an employment contract that’s FoM in all but name, especially with healthcare reciprocity slapped on in addition.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015338467058946051

    Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.
    Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.
    Where does it say that?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916
    MaxPB said:

    It's a good comprise deal for everyone involved though and it has a basis in reality. What will be very difficult to sell for the government is putting all of this forwards without the EU saying "yes, but we insist on free movement". I think no deal comes back on to the table if the EU insist on free movement.

    If the EU reject it I can't see any other deal being done. It'll be WTO and dynamite the Channel Tunnel time.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Mortimer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    The bloody difficult woman seems at last to have put her foot down and disloyal cabinet ministers will be out.

    She has seen off a hard Brexit, steared towards a path that Parliament are more likely to approve, a softish Brexit and no doubt in years to come, depending on what happens in the EU, a probable move to re-join.

    As far as I am concerned I am content tonight

    A Brexit that sees us leave the single market, customs union and ECJ is now considers soft Brexit. What, pray, is hard Brexit now defined as?

    We won’t be rejoining BigG. We’d lose our opt outs.
    "as if a combined customs territory" looks like a customs union and quacks like a customs union to me. Plus "Due regard" to the CJEU and what seems pretty like the SM in goods

    It all seems pretty damn soft to me.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Jonathan said:

    Now May needs an England win to deny oxygen to her critics.

    we won with two balls to spare (make your own joke)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    MaxPB said:

    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015338467058946051

    Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.
    Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.
    Where does it say that?
    It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    It's a good comprise deal for everyone involved though and it has a basis in reality. What will be very difficult to sell for the government is putting all of this forwards without the EU saying "yes, but we insist on free movement". I think no deal comes back on to the table if the EU insist on free movement.

    If the EU reject it I can't see any other deal being done. It'll be WTO and dynamite the Channel Tunnel time.
    Nope Theresa doesn't have the guts.

    WHEN the EU reject... She'll roll over some more. Obviously.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    glw said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    So far it seems to be annoying all the right people.....

    ++ I hope JRM is foaming at the mouth.
    I am afraid he seems to be in a permeant state of that! He is a first rate Cretin.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LordOfReason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1015337539241201664

    Remainers and Remain media flock to bolster her.
    Douglas Carswell is a Remainer?
    Worse - someone with more atypical views than ideology is comfortable with.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015338467058946051

    Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.
    Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.
    Where does it say that?
    It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.
    The backstop is a fallback for NI only if nothing that would prevent a hard Irish border can be agreed for the UK as a whole. As these proposals effectively maintain UK membership of the customs union and the single market for goods, the backstop won't be needed.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015338467058946051

    Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.
    Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.
    I don't see that in the text.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    The deal being proposed is basically lifted from the existing Switzerland-EU treaty. I mean it's almost identical.

    I was always told the EU regretted the Swiss Treaties as they thought the Swiss had outmanoeuvred them in the negotiation.
    It's a good comprise deal for everyone involved though and it has a basis in reality. What will be very difficult to sell for the government is putting all of this forwards without the EU saying "yes, but we insist on free movement". I think no deal comes back on to the table if the EU insist on free movement.

    There’ll be a fudge. If EU citizens can come here, look for work and get the right to stay with an employment contract that’s FoM in all but name, especially with healthcare reciprocity slapped on in addition.

    You're reading stuff that isn't being proposed. Right now the government is proposing that the UK stays in the single market for goods (fine, who gives a fuck about widget standards anyway), has some kind of customs arrangement that looks a lot like pre-clearance, and no free movement of people. The big concession is that we'll leave the single market for services, but that brings as many upsides as downsides, we stop being rule takers and it allows Westminster to be much more proactive in helping grow the services industries, but locks UK based business out of a big market without a capitalised EU based subsidiary.

    Overall it's a fair compromise for a 52/48 referendum win. I just don't see how the EU accepts it without insisting on full free movement as they have for Switzerland.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015338467058946051

    Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.
    Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.
    Citation required.
  • LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LordOfReason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1015337539241201664

    Remainers and Remain media flock to bolster her.
    Douglas Carswell is a Remainer?
    The usually coherent Carswell has to explain his own peculiar comment.

    But you denying the direction of travel from no deal better than bad deal, to the We are free from the EU (but actually are no more free of it than Norway) Brexit that is now the governments white paper?

    In history books the direction of travel will look like pure comedy.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015338467058946051

    Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.
    Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.
    Where does it say that?
    It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.
    If something like this is agreed, there will be no need for the backstop.

    As a Remainer, I'm reasonably happy with this. My only regret is that I think it makes a no deal scenario with a second referendum and a reversal of the referendum result much less likely. Staying in is obviously much more desirable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015338467058946051

    Craig needs to read what is being proposed, it literally is the government proposing "let's have this Brexit cake and eat it" with a bit of flourish.
    Plus signing the UK away. They're agreeing to a sea border in principle which is huge.
    Where does it say that?
    It doesn't that I can see. They commit to a backstop, the 'operational legal text' of which hasn't been agreed yet afaik, and William seems to be assuming said backstop we'll agree to will include a sea border.
    The backstop is Northern Ireland only, and the proposed future relationship leaves open the possibility of regulatory divergence which is specifically says would have consequences for the border, which can only be in the Irish sea.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916
    GIN1138 said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    It's a good comprise deal for everyone involved though and it has a basis in reality. What will be very difficult to sell for the government is putting all of this forwards without the EU saying "yes, but we insist on free movement". I think no deal comes back on to the table if the EU insist on free movement.

    If the EU reject it I can't see any other deal being done. It'll be WTO and dynamite the Channel Tunnel time.
    Nope Theresa doesn't have the guts.

    WHEN the EU reject... She'll roll over some more. Obviously.
    If the EU reject it and hard Brexit beckons, then I wouldn't expect May to remain as PM.
This discussion has been closed.