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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets are slightly less certain that the UK will

Above is the trend in the Betfair exchange market monitored, as ever, by Betdata.io
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Meanwhile, as pb's resident Leavers are spinning moonbeams from cucumbers and fantasising about the sort of timescales for implementation of dream scenarios that they angrily insisted were ridiculous before the referendum, Jonathan Lis has given a damning assessment of where we are:
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-chequers-summit-cannot-save-mays-premiership
On Javid. He is absolutely a Leaver and altered his views in conjunction with Dave to join the Remain side.
On sartorial protocol, Jermyn Street for shirts, Savile Row for suits.
Yes, that's how it is, but I find that Savile Row is for tourists. Jermyn Street offers better value and a superior tailoring experience, IMO.
Privately he wasn’t happy at the tone of Leave’s campaign and told Gove that.
On the far lesser matter of the next potential leader of the Conservative Party, on this @archer101au has a legitimate view. Which is that Javid would sell out his Leave views to give us a soft Brexit in power, a la May. But we can't tell and his Leave credentials would prevent many at least Cons MPs from supporting him.
Our style of government is not in anyway comparable to other countries which have had insurgents and populist uprisings.
We should look to a known unknown amongst the Cons MPs.
I know there had been ideas to move the next World Cup tournament to the winter, but didn't know it was official. However, after checking I see this decision was made three years ago now!
So some questions for the PB (football) brains trusts:
1. Is Qatar going to be ready for 2022?
2. Is it really likely to be held in November 2022 as presently planned?
3. What is going to happen to domestic football, not just in the UK but across the world? Even a shortened World Cup would take half the Premiership players out for six weeks?
4. Is it likely to be cancelled, and if so, who (England) might get the nod (and when would we know)?
So October and November. Guess we would have to start in July and finish mid-June.
https://twitter.com/mailsport/status/1014497831279874050?s=21
2. If it goes ahead, then yes. There is no way the players could survive playing in 40-45 degree heat in the desert.
3. The main European leagues are consulting on what to do, the main idea is to start the season a bit earlier and have a 5 week break for the tournament, 1 week post tournament and then finish the season a few weeks late.
4. If it gets cancelled then England is seen as one of the few countries that could host it without needing any investment in infrastructure. I think Germany is another nation, but they hosted it too recently. What might happen is England gets it and then the FA supports some Asian bid for 2030, maybe China.
Let's have that extension for 10 years and, in time, people will even forget we had a referendum. Many of the Leave voters would be dead by then [ naturally ] and Remain will have a big majority.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/21/why-nobody-complaining-bus-services-deregulation
And in fairness, buses are better run where there is still local government oversight - Tyne & Wear had a brilliant integrated bus/metro system, but deregulation stuffed that.....
https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1014500755984801792
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-5916705/England-fans-heap-praise-ultimate-gentleman-Southgate.html
Southgate for PM....is great at PR with the media, tactically savvy and appearing to be uniting the nation.
2. If it’s in Qatar then it will be in November, they won’t be able to play there in the summer.
3. The Premier league and other European leagues will take a break from a couple of weeks before the tournament until a week afterwards, starting the season early and finishing late to accommodate the break.
4. From purely an infrastructure and logistics viewpoint (stadia, training facilities, transport, hotels), the only countries that could likely hold the tournament at short notice would be England/UK, France, Germany and USA. The WC was in Germany recently, France a couple of decades ago and will be partly in the US for the first of the 48 term tournaments in 2026. All of these teams will want a summer tournament to avoid inclement weather, so any decision to move to summer 2022 (as opposed to Qatar winter 2022) will need to be taken by winter 2021 at the latest. I doubt summer 2023 would work due to other events.
I have a gentleman’s bet with a friend out here in the sandpit (I live in Dubai) that England will host the 2022 World Cup.
Section 20(2) of the Act says:
In this Act references to before, after or on exit day, or to beginning with exit day, are to be read as references to before, after or at 11.00 p.m. on 29 March 2019 or (as the case may be) to beginning with 11.00 p.m. on that day..
So I don't think the government can now ask for an extension to Article 50, without primary legislation to amend the Act. However, IANAL, nor a constitutional expert, so perhaps I'm wrong on this - does anyone know?
Better make sure the food and drink tasters are working overtime in case anyone has any nefarious intentions.
I’m with Oscar Wilde. On this sort of thing anyway.
Parliament can vote to change the existing law, but only if the Government propose the legislation, which they can't do if they get toppled...
More fun and games were they to try.
EDIT: I missed your reference to primary legislation. Forgive me. It is too hot.
https://twitter.com/imrichardmorris/status/1014464443189747712
Britain would then be in the EU without any legislation under the European Communities Act 1972 remaining in force, see section 1. That legislation might still have direct effect (by application of section 3 and/or the Francovitch case) in many circumstances. It would be a heaving mess.
I can’t see anything other than the legal technicality of us leaving the EU taking effect at the end of March next year. If a further extension is needed, i think it’ll be of the transition period and not A50.
There’s a blackish swan that all the politics and economics just blows up, somehow resulting in Brexit proper being punted into the long grass, but that’s not a 40% shot.
Please!
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1014380189667790848?s=21
I don't know whether being chosen as hosts for the European Championships in 2024 would be a point in Germany's favour or not, as they might then be in the middle of some upgrade building works for the later tournament.
Incidentally, when Mexico hosted the 1986 tournament after Colombia, the original hosts, withdrew, it was 16 years since Mexico hosted the tournament in 1970. In 2022 it will have been 16 years since Germany hosted the tournament in 2006.
@williamglenn & @SeanT's bet.
But, as this is a betting website, the probability of it happening is a 10-15% shot now, not a 40% one.
In any case, let's have a quick reminder of which campaign spent more.
https://i.redd.it/fqabt51ti1o01.jpg
Mr. Sandpit, that seems somewhat dubious.
He'd do terribly in Inner London, but probably poll rather well in Outer London.
But I suspect Alastair doesn’t have much less riding on the outcome himself.
This seems pretty comprehensive, and yes I know it’s Guido but he’s been following this very closely.
Huzzah for them!
Still it's nice to know the Lord Mayor is focusing on his actual day job rather than grandstanding about foreign heads of state. Has he banned any unelected dictators from his realm?