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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets are slightly less certain that the UK will

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  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    PBers who like my animal welfare work even if they take a dim view of some of my other thoughts may be pleased to know I've just been appointed Head of Compassion in World Farming UK (was previously just responsible for policy) - with 15 staff and hundreds of thousands of active supporters, it's the largest challenge I've ever had, and I really look forward to it.

    It does help that both major parties are currently so open to change on the issue. We are hoping that Michael Gove stays in post, regardless of what else happens this week - he's done more to shake up thinking in the area than any previous incumbent.

    Well done old chap.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,757

    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn

    Latest: Amesbury couple were poisoned. Porton Down analysing samples now to determine if by same batch of nerve agent used in Sergei Skripal assassination attempt"

    Surnames of the couple doesn’t scream Russian double agent.
    I saw somewhere that they had only recently moved into the house. I wonder if the previous occupants have been traced and checked?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, same here. Even if we lose, I think the team and management can come back proud of what they have achieved. A win would be amazing though, first semi-final for 28 years!

    The principle advantage of Engerland winning is you might finally STFU about '66...
    Doesn't it just means we can bang on about '18 for another 52 years?
    Two World Wars and TWO World Cups!
    I wonder how long it will be before the EU try to claim they've won it 10 times, much as they tried to do with the Olympics? :p
    Almost as perverse as claiming England won the World Wars...
    Our victories in the Seven Years War and the War of Spanish Succession were fairly comprehensive
    "Our victories"? You've taken off your SoCal hat then?
    I'm a Brit who lives in London. I have a holiday home in SoCal.
    In the past you've complained about Nevada "stealing our water". ;)
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    RobD said:

    MTimT said:

    Off-topic:

    What a glorious Fourth of July. My car was in for a service so I spent a few hours walking from Cambridge down to Grantchester and around in a loop. Lots of people dressed up in stars and stripes - and a couple as colonial soldiers - on the meadows and in the river, and plenty of other fun in the sun.

    Oh, and a fair few pieces of 'Free Tommy' graffiti. And one, in the same hand, saying 'Flat earth bible'.

    Couple of days ago the dogs started barking and would not stop. We live on a very rural street and can see no neighbors from front or back of house. Eventually, I investigated as to causing of incessant barking.

    A troop of 10 colonial soldiers, with muskets and early US flag, marching single file down the road with a purpose. God know where they were going, what they were re-enacting.
    Sounds like we need to despatch some royalist soldiers to crush this rebellion in its infancy. :o
    Should have let the dogs loose ... :D
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, same here. Even if we lose, I think the team and management can come back proud of what they have achieved. A win would be amazing though, first semi-final for 28 years!

    The principle advantage of Engerland winning is you might finally STFU about '66...
    Doesn't it just means we can bang on about '18 for another 52 years?
    Two World Wars and TWO World Cups!
    I wonder how long it will be before the EU try to claim they've won it 10 times, much as they tried to do with the Olympics? :p
    Almost as perverse as claiming England won the World Wars...
    Our victories in the Seven Years War and the War of Spanish Succession were fairly comprehensive
    "Our victories"? You've taken off your SoCal hat then?
    I'm a Brit who lives in London. I have a holiday home in SoCal.
    In the past you've complained about Nevada "stealing our water". ;)
    People can have multiple identities.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, same here. Even if we lose, I think the team and management can come back proud of what they have achieved. A win would be amazing though, first semi-final for 28 years!

    The principle advantage of Engerland winning is you might finally STFU about '66...
    Doesn't it just means we can bang on about '18 for another 52 years?
    Two World Wars and TWO World Cups!
    I wonder how long it will be before the EU try to claim they've won it 10 times, much as they tried to do with the Olympics? :p
    Almost as perverse as claiming England won the World Wars...
    Our victories in the Seven Years War and the War of Spanish Succession were fairly comprehensive
    "Our victories"? You've taken off your SoCal hat then?
    I'm a Brit who lives in London. I have a holiday home in SoCal.
    In the past you've complained about Nevada "stealing our water". ;)
    We all have more than one identity. Or are you monochrome. Strike that, we know the answer ;)
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,757
    MTimT said:

    surby said:

    MTimT said:

    Reports of another possible nerve agent attack in the UK. Watch for breaking news...

    Apparently, it was drug related. This might give Putin [ or his spokesperson Trump ] the perfect opportunity to have a go at us. Unless Russians were involved. The fact remains that this place is close Porton Down. I would say the chance of any funny business is less than 1% - bot not 0%.
    Thanks, just had one of the news channels on the phone asking for a comment. Told them I knew nothing and intended to spend today drinking and eating in the sun (4th July celebrations - even Brits do it in the US), not in a studio.
    Why did they phone you - do you have a relevant background?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291

    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn

    Latest: Amesbury couple were poisoned. Porton Down analysing samples now to determine if by same batch of nerve agent used in Sergei Skripal assassination attempt"

    Surnames of the couple doesn’t scream Russian double agent.
    I saw somewhere that they had only recently moved into the house. I wonder if the previous occupants have been traced and checked?
    Guardian reporting they were jobless couple who only been together a few months and were known drug users. Could be dodgy batch of drugs or could be mistaken identity, sounds highly unlikely they were the target.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, same here. Even if we lose, I think the team and management can come back proud of what they have achieved. A win would be amazing though, first semi-final for 28 years!

    The principle advantage of Engerland winning is you might finally STFU about '66...
    Doesn't it just means we can bang on about '18 for another 52 years?
    Two World Wars and TWO World Cups!
    I wonder how long it will be before the EU try to claim they've won it 10 times, much as they tried to do with the Olympics? :p
    Almost as perverse as claiming England won the World Wars...
    Our victories in the Seven Years War and the War of Spanish Succession were fairly comprehensive
    "Our victories"? You've taken off your SoCal hat then?
    I'm a Brit who lives in London. I have a holiday home in SoCal.
    In the past you've complained about Nevada "stealing our water". ;)
    People can have multiple identities.
    Which was rather the point of my first comment.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn

    Latest: Amesbury couple were poisoned. Porton Down analysing samples now to determine if by same batch of nerve agent used in Sergei Skripal assassination attempt"

    Surnames of the couple doesn’t scream Russian double agent.
    I saw somewhere that they had only recently moved into the house. I wonder if the previous occupants have been traced and checked?
    Guardian reporting they were jobless couple who only been together a few months and were known drug users. Could be dodgy batch of drugs or could be mistaken identity, sounds highly unlikely they were the target.
    Bad batch of coke, IMO.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,757
    edited July 2018

    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn

    Latest: Amesbury couple were poisoned. Porton Down analysing samples now to determine if by same batch of nerve agent used in Sergei Skripal assassination attempt"

    Surnames of the couple doesn’t scream Russian double agent.
    I saw somewhere that they had only recently moved into the house. I wonder if the previous occupants have been traced and checked?
    Guardian reporting they were jobless couple who only been together a few months and were known drug users. Could be dodgy batch of drugs or could be mistaken identity, sounds highly unlikely they were the target.
    I can't believe Putin would have sanctioned a second attack during the WC. Bad drugs or food poisoning most likely.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    The only way we may not leave the EU on March 29th next year is if no transition period has yet been agreed and even then that would require the agreement of both sides
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,283
    Scott_P said:
    :lol: They reckon they'll have an answer by Saturday morning!
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,389
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, same here. Even if we lose, I think the team and management can come back proud of what they have achieved. A win would be amazing though, first semi-final for 28 years!

    The principle advantage of Engerland winning is you might finally STFU about '66...
    Doesn't it just means we can bang on about '18 for another 52 years?
    Two World Wars and TWO World Cups!
    I wonder how long it will be before the EU try to claim they've won it 10 times, much as they tried to do with the Olympics? :p
    Almost as perverse as claiming England won the World Wars...
    Our victories in the Seven Years War and the War of Spanish Succession were fairly comprehensive
    "Our victories"? You've taken off your SoCal hat then?
    I'm a Brit who lives in London. I have a holiday home in SoCal.
    In the past you've complained about Nevada "stealing our water". ;)
    People can have multiple identities.
    Against the rules of PB I thought?

    :wink:
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    57m57 minutes ago

    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    President Macron Approval Rating

    Approve: 41% (-2)
    Disapprove: 59% (+2)

    Field work: 27/06/18 – 29/06/18
    Sample size: 1,008"
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,893
    OT. Is Esther McVey about to get her marching orders? It doesn't sound good. Her 'colleagues' are positively queuing up to put the boot in...
  • Options
    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Been trying to catch up with PB, but am I missing McVey being toast? Telling porkies to the Commons is one thing, to be publicly reprimanded by the head of the NAO and having to give an apology to the Commons in response does not look good for a lengthy political career...
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,354
    Charles said:

    PBers who like my animal welfare work even if they take a dim view of some of my other thoughts may be pleased to know I've just been appointed Head of Compassion in World Farming UK (was previously just responsible for policy) - with 15 staff and hundreds of thousands of active supporters, it's the largest challenge I've ever had, and I really look forward to it.

    It does help that both major parties are currently so open to change on the issue. We are hoping that Michael Gove stays in post, regardless of what else happens this week - he's done more to shake up thinking in the area than any previous incumbent.

    So Policy doesn't include compassion? Or is Compassion not policy?

    (congratulations, by the way)
    Thanks to you and all the other good wishes. I know it's a tease, but in case you actually wondered, essentially up to now I was responsible for international policy, while the new job concentrates on the UK, including policy, but expands to cover all aspects of the charity's work.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:

    surby said:

    MTimT said:

    Reports of another possible nerve agent attack in the UK. Watch for breaking news...

    Apparently, it was drug related. This might give Putin [ or his spokesperson Trump ] the perfect opportunity to have a go at us. Unless Russians were involved. The fact remains that this place is close Porton Down. I would say the chance of any funny business is less than 1% - bot not 0%.
    Thanks, just had one of the news channels on the phone asking for a comment. Told them I knew nothing and intended to spend today drinking and eating in the sun (4th July celebrations - even Brits do it in the US), not in a studio.
    Why did they phone you - do you have a relevant background?
    Yes.
  • Options
    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    The central dynamic of this market is the Transition. It's the one thing May has got right. We can leave the EU on time politically without leaving anything organisationally or economically. It delivers huge symbolic change while taking the cliff edge away. So for us not to leave by ' Brexit Day ' we need either Brexit in it's entirety to be abandoned or the Withdrawal agreement not to include a Transition. Either is possible but nowhere near as likely as those Betfair prices suggest. The market is based on sentiment that we won't be ready to leave by Brexit Day. And we won't be ready. But the Transition means that doesn't matter so we will leave anyway.

    Re Richard Nabavi's point about the Withdrawal Act: One concession wrung out by the Tory rebels was while Brexit Day is still defined innthe Act there is now a process for changing the date with fresh primary legislation.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,757

    Scott_P said:
    :lol: They reckon they'll have an answer by Saturday morning!
    The briefing will be: "We still haven't decided".
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Charles said:



    People can have multiple identities.

    snap! See my comment. But, to be fair, see also Mr Glenn's comment back.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    edited July 2018

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    By taking enough moderate Labour supporters and pro EEA Tories and LDs.

    Remember Macron won the first round of the presidential election in France as well as the second as did En Marche in the legislative elections, leaving the conservative Les Republicains and the left-wing Socialist Party trailing in its wake

    France has direct democracy, they vote for their head of state, we vote for representatives by FPTP. There is no arithmetic that can make a Labour centrist PM in 2027. 2032 is the earliest that a centrist fightback can occur, either in or out of the Labour party.

    Our style of government is not in anyway comparable to other countries which have had insurgents and populist uprisings.
    I'll say it again: the SDP-Liberal Alliance polled well into the 40s for several months in late 1981. Think about how that would have translated into seats. And that was at a time when the electorate was supposedly more loyal to political parties.
    I think people outside France also tend to underestimate the level of organisation it took for him to do what he did. He didn't just rock up out of nowhere on his own.
    Indeed - and that lack of initial human, data and organisational infrastructure is one of the biggest barriers to making an early breakthrough (and the lack of an early breakthrough is a huge barrier to making a later breakthrough).
    What data and organisational infrastructure did En Marche have? Precisely near zero compared to the established parties apart from a bit from Bayrou's MoDem.

    A centrist party in the UK like 1980 would probably be launched in alliance with the LDs
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060

    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn

    Latest: Amesbury couple were poisoned. Porton Down analysing samples now to determine if by same batch of nerve agent used in Sergei Skripal assassination attempt"

    Surnames of the couple doesn’t scream Russian double agent.
    I saw somewhere that they had only recently moved into the house. I wonder if the previous occupants have been traced and checked?
    Guardian reporting they were jobless couple who only been together a few months and were known drug users. Could be dodgy batch of drugs or could be mistaken identity, sounds highly unlikely they were the target.
    I can't believe Putin would have sanctioned a second attack during the WC. Bad drugs or food poisoning most likely.
    Whilst I agree with your second sentence, it should be noted that people who sanction the use of chemical weapons probably don't think in quite the same 'rational' manner you or I do ...
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    HYUFD said:



    A centrist party in the UK like 1980 would probably be launched in alliance with the LDs

    Wouldn't that, in itself, be the kiss of death?
  • Options
    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Re Salisbury: The fact that in the last few hours the Met has taken over the investigation and COBRA is meeting suggests the story has taken a signifigant turn for the worse.

    I hope it is food poisoning or dodgy drugs in the end as the implications of it being a second chemical weapons attack are dire indeed.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    edited July 2018
    He would probably win Havering and Bexley and maybe Hillingdon and do alright in Barking and Dagenham and Sutton and Bromley but be trounced elsewhere.

    After Rossindell's local party's local election campaign focused on 'keeping Havering like Essex not East London' also an odd decision
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,757

    Charles said:

    PBers who like my animal welfare work even if they take a dim view of some of my other thoughts may be pleased to know I've just been appointed Head of Compassion in World Farming UK (was previously just responsible for policy) - with 15 staff and hundreds of thousands of active supporters, it's the largest challenge I've ever had, and I really look forward to it.

    It does help that both major parties are currently so open to change on the issue. We are hoping that Michael Gove stays in post, regardless of what else happens this week - he's done more to shake up thinking in the area than any previous incumbent.

    So Policy doesn't include compassion? Or is Compassion not policy?

    (congratulations, by the way)
    Thanks to you and all the other good wishes. I know it's a tease, but in case you actually wondered, essentially up to now I was responsible for international policy, while the new job concentrates on the UK, including policy, but expands to cover all aspects of the charity's work.
    I hope you can put the brakes on the rise of industrial-scale farming which seems to be accelerating.

    Here in the Blackmore Vale we used to look out pastures with cattle grazing in them from early spring to late autumn. Now, there are hardly any cattle to be seen but I've been told the cattle population has actually increased - many are in barns all year round and the fields are cut for silage to feed them. :disappointed:
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited July 2018

    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn

    Latest: Amesbury couple were poisoned. Porton Down analysing samples now to determine if by same batch of nerve agent used in Sergei Skripal assassination attempt"

    Surnames of the couple doesn’t scream Russian double agent.
    I saw somewhere that they had only recently moved into the house. I wonder if the previous occupants have been traced and checked?
    Guardian reporting they were jobless couple who only been together a few months and were known drug users. Could be dodgy batch of drugs or could be mistaken identity, sounds highly unlikely they were the target.
    I can't believe Putin would have sanctioned a second attack during the WC. Bad drugs or food poisoning most likely.
    Whilst I agree with your second sentence, it should be noted that people who sanction the use of chemical weapons probably don't think in quite the same 'rational' manner you or I do ...
    Or are rational and banking on the type of reasoning by other parties just demonstrated by Mr Pointer. Russia is home to many great chess masters ...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    MTimT said:

    HYUFD said:



    A centrist party in the UK like 1980 would probably be launched in alliance with the LDs

    Wouldn't that, in itself, be the kiss of death?
    As pointed out earlier the SDP Liberal Alliance was polling well over 40% halfway through the 1979 to 1983 Parliament
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    HYUFD said:

    MTimT said:

    HYUFD said:



    A centrist party in the UK like 1980 would probably be launched in alliance with the LDs

    Wouldn't that, in itself, be the kiss of death?
    As pointed out earlier the SDP Liberal Alliance was polling well over 40% halfway through the 1979 to 1983 Parliament
    The LDs of today are not the Liberals of the 1980s, neither in membership, nor substance, nor political baggage.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,893

    PBers who like my animal welfare work even if they take a dim view of some of my other thoughts may be pleased to know I've just been appointed Head of Compassion in World Farming UK (was previously just responsible for policy) - with 15 staff and hundreds of thousands of active supporters, it's the largest challenge I've ever had, and I really look forward to it.

    It does help that both major parties are currently so open to change on the issue. We are hoping that Michael Gove stays in post, regardless of what else happens this week - he's done more to shake up thinking in the area than any previous incumbent.

    Well done Nick. That's very good news. I have a relative who's in the same 'industry' who when I tell her the good news will inundate you!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116

    Re Salisbury: The fact that in the last few hours the Met has taken over the investigation and COBRA is meeting suggests the story has taken a signifigant turn for the worse.

    I hope it is food poisoning or dodgy drugs in the end as the implications of it being a second chemical weapons attack are dire indeed.

    https://twitter.com/willhumphries_/status/1014545835932123136
  • Options
    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    People confuse the UK's desperate need for a new Centre Party with their being public demand for one. Of which sadly there appears to be none.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,757
    MTimT said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn

    Latest: Amesbury couple were poisoned. Porton Down analysing samples now to determine if by same batch of nerve agent used in Sergei Skripal assassination attempt"

    Surnames of the couple doesn’t scream Russian double agent.
    I saw somewhere that they had only recently moved into the house. I wonder if the previous occupants have been traced and checked?
    Guardian reporting they were jobless couple who only been together a few months and were known drug users. Could be dodgy batch of drugs or could be mistaken identity, sounds highly unlikely they were the target.
    I can't believe Putin would have sanctioned a second attack during the WC. Bad drugs or food poisoning most likely.
    Whilst I agree with your second sentence, it should be noted that people who sanction the use of chemical weapons probably don't think in quite the same 'rational' manner you or I do ...
    Or are rational and banking on the type of reasoning by other parties just demonstrated by Mr Pointer. Russia is home to many great chess masters ...
    I sort of get that but wasn't the point about the Skripal case that the Russians really wanted people to know it was them?
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Charles said:

    PBers who like my animal welfare work even if they take a dim view of some of my other thoughts may be pleased to know I've just been appointed Head of Compassion in World Farming UK (was previously just responsible for policy) - with 15 staff and hundreds of thousands of active supporters, it's the largest challenge I've ever had, and I really look forward to it.

    It does help that both major parties are currently so open to change on the issue. We are hoping that Michael Gove stays in post, regardless of what else happens this week - he's done more to shake up thinking in the area than any previous incumbent.

    So Policy doesn't include compassion? Or is Compassion not policy?

    (congratulations, by the way)
    Thanks to you and all the other good wishes. I know it's a tease, but in case you actually wondered, essentially up to now I was responsible for international policy, while the new job concentrates on the UK, including policy, but expands to cover all aspects of the charity's work.
    I hope you can put the brakes on the rise of industrial-scale farming which seems to be accelerating.

    Here in the Blackmore Vale we used to look out pastures with cattle grazing in them from early spring to late autumn. Now, there are hardly any cattle to be seen but I've been told the cattle population has actually increased - many are in barns all year round and the fields are cut for silage to feed them. :disappointed:
    Setting aside productivity, strangely probably better farming practice from both the point of view of soil conservation and water purity. Not so much in terms of animal welfare ...
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn

    Latest: Amesbury couple were poisoned. Porton Down analysing samples now to determine if by same batch of nerve agent used in Sergei Skripal assassination attempt"

    Surnames of the couple doesn’t scream Russian double agent.
    I saw somewhere that they had only recently moved into the house. I wonder if the previous occupants have been traced and checked?
    Guardian reporting they were jobless couple who only been together a few months and were known drug users. Could be dodgy batch of drugs or could be mistaken identity, sounds highly unlikely they were the target.
    I can't believe Putin would have sanctioned a second attack during the WC. Bad drugs or food poisoning most likely.
    Whilst I agree with your second sentence, it should be noted that people who sanction the use of chemical weapons probably don't think in quite the same 'rational' manner you or I do ...
    Or are rational and banking on the type of reasoning by other parties just demonstrated by Mr Pointer. Russia is home to many great chess masters ...
    I sort of get that but wasn't the point about the Skripal case that the Russians really wanted people to know it was them?
    Yes. But motivation and intent are fickle.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,893
    I can imagine the temptation to steal the limelight from the Russians at this time but even mentioning 'nerve agents' is just embarrassing
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060
    MTimT said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Tom Newton Dunn
    ‏Verified account @tnewtondunn

    Latest: Amesbury couple were poisoned. Porton Down analysing samples now to determine if by same batch of nerve agent used in Sergei Skripal assassination attempt"

    Surnames of the couple doesn’t scream Russian double agent.
    I saw somewhere that they had only recently moved into the house. I wonder if the previous occupants have been traced and checked?
    Guardian reporting they were jobless couple who only been together a few months and were known drug users. Could be dodgy batch of drugs or could be mistaken identity, sounds highly unlikely they were the target.
    I can't believe Putin would have sanctioned a second attack during the WC. Bad drugs or food poisoning most likely.
    Whilst I agree with your second sentence, it should be noted that people who sanction the use of chemical weapons probably don't think in quite the same 'rational' manner you or I do ...
    Or are rational and banking on the type of reasoning by other parties just demonstrated by Mr Pointer. Russia is home to many great chess masters ...
    Oh, indeed. The Russians have got rather good at throwing a load of FUD at their actions and letting people choose whichever story they want - just as long as it isn't the story that points at them.

    I wonder who lived in that house before this couple?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,757
    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    PBers who like my animal welfare work even if they take a dim view of some of my other thoughts may be pleased to know I've just been appointed Head of Compassion in World Farming UK (was previously just responsible for policy) - with 15 staff and hundreds of thousands of active supporters, it's the largest challenge I've ever had, and I really look forward to it.

    It does help that both major parties are currently so open to change on the issue. We are hoping that Michael Gove stays in post, regardless of what else happens this week - he's done more to shake up thinking in the area than any previous incumbent.

    So Policy doesn't include compassion? Or is Compassion not policy?

    (congratulations, by the way)
    Thanks to you and all the other good wishes. I know it's a tease, but in case you actually wondered, essentially up to now I was responsible for international policy, while the new job concentrates on the UK, including policy, but expands to cover all aspects of the charity's work.
    I hope you can put the brakes on the rise of industrial-scale farming which seems to be accelerating.

    Here in the Blackmore Vale we used to look out pastures with cattle grazing in them from early spring to late autumn. Now, there are hardly any cattle to be seen but I've been told the cattle population has actually increased - many are in barns all year round and the fields are cut for silage to feed them. :disappointed:
    Setting aside productivity, strangely probably better farming practice from both the point of view of soil conservation and water purity. Not so much in terms of animal welfare ...
    That's a fair point. I know we are we need to move from livestock to arable farming but I am not sure what crop apart from grass you can sensibly grow on large parts of western Britain. And I for one find grass a bit unpalatable.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927

    Re Salisbury: The fact that in the last few hours the Met has taken over the investigation and COBRA is meeting suggests the story has taken a signifigant turn for the worse.

    I hope it is food poisoning or dodgy drugs in the end as the implications of it being a second chemical weapons attack are dire indeed.

    https://twitter.com/willhumphries_/status/1014545835932123136
    Hopefully this turns out to be a couple of people who went somewhere quiet in Salisbury that no-one realised until now the Skripals had also visited.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060
    Sandpit said:

    Re Salisbury: The fact that in the last few hours the Met has taken over the investigation and COBRA is meeting suggests the story has taken a signifigant turn for the worse.

    I hope it is food poisoning or dodgy drugs in the end as the implications of it being a second chemical weapons attack are dire indeed.

    https://twitter.com/willhumphries_/status/1014545835932123136
    Hopefully this turns out to be a couple of people who went somewhere quiet in Salisbury that no-one realised until now the Skripals had also visited.
    I get the impression the authorities have a very good idea about where the Skirpals went in the relevant period.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    Sandpit said:

    Hopefully this turns out to be a couple of people who went somewhere quiet in Salisbury that no-one realised until now the Skripals had also visited.

    That seems like the most likely explanation, assuming that is what they've been exposed to and they are not obvious targets for anybody. Concerning that it could still happen though after several months...
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,757

    Sandpit said:

    Re Salisbury: The fact that in the last few hours the Met has taken over the investigation and COBRA is meeting suggests the story has taken a signifigant turn for the worse.

    I hope it is food poisoning or dodgy drugs in the end as the implications of it being a second chemical weapons attack are dire indeed.

    https://twitter.com/willhumphries_/status/1014545835932123136
    Hopefully this turns out to be a couple of people who went somewhere quiet in Salisbury that no-one realised until now the Skripals had also visited.
    I get the impression the authorities have a very good idea about where the Skirpals went in the relevant period.
    ... but do they know where the Russian attackers went before and after the attack?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,354
    MTimT said:



    I hope you can put the brakes on the rise of industrial-scale farming which seems to be accelerating.

    Here in the Blackmore Vale we used to look out pastures with cattle grazing in them from early spring to late autumn. Now, there are hardly any cattle to be seen but I've been told the cattle population has actually increased - many are in barns all year round and the fields are cut for silage to feed them. :disappointed:

    Setting aside productivity, strangely probably better farming practice from both the point of view of soil conservation and water purity. Not so much in terms of animal welfare ...
    No, wouldn't agree (no surprise) - the direct environmental impact of industrial farming is significant, because a great deal of waste, energy use and transport is concentrated. The indirect impact is even more significant, because the animals need to be fed on grain, which is needed in such quantities by the developed world that it leads to devastation of large areas of the developing world - and competes with human consumption. By contrast, as we don't eat grass, grass-fed animals on open land have a much reduced impact (as well as it being better for the animals, of course).
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Betfair exchange:

    Sweden 4.9
    England 1.97
    Draw 3.4

    Russia 4.1
    Croatia 2.28
    Draw 3.1

    Uruguay 4.8
    France 2.04
    Draw 3.25

    Brazil 2.2
    Belgium 3.8
    Draw 3.5

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/competition/5614746

    Random thought - looking at those numbers I wondered if nations with big football audiences are routinely overpriced, and that you could turn a profit by backing smaller countries systematically. Or is that something so obvious that punters already factor it in?
    Good questions. I don't know the answers.
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Congrats Nick, not an area I know much about, but I generally like animals and don't want them to suffer so best of luck.

    Also, in football news, it's coming home.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116

    The central dynamic of this market is the Transition. It's the one thing May has got right. We can leave the EU on time politically without leaving anything organisationally or economically. It delivers huge symbolic change while taking the cliff edge away. So for us not to leave by ' Brexit Day ' we need either Brexit in it's entirety to be abandoned or the Withdrawal agreement not to include a Transition. Either is possible but nowhere near as likely as those Betfair prices suggest. The market is based on sentiment that we won't be ready to leave by Brexit Day. And we won't be ready. But the Transition means that doesn't matter so we will leave anyway.

    Re Richard Nabavi's point about the Withdrawal Act: One concession wrung out by the Tory rebels was while Brexit Day is still defined innthe Act there is now a process for changing the date with fresh primary legislation.

    I wouldn't rule out extension as a possibility. It allows the can to be kicked and then the EU elections in May can further diminish the referendum mandate which will create more political space.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060

    Sandpit said:

    Re Salisbury: The fact that in the last few hours the Met has taken over the investigation and COBRA is meeting suggests the story has taken a signifigant turn for the worse.

    I hope it is food poisoning or dodgy drugs in the end as the implications of it being a second chemical weapons attack are dire indeed.

    https://twitter.com/willhumphries_/status/1014545835932123136
    Hopefully this turns out to be a couple of people who went somewhere quiet in Salisbury that no-one realised until now the Skripals had also visited.
    I get the impression the authorities have a very good idea about where the Skirpals went in the relevant period.
    ... but do they know where the Russian attackers went before and after the attack?
    Good point. Perhaps they found a packet of something they thought might be drugs and decided to take it. But that seems a slightly remote (and crazy) possibility.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,052
    MTimT said:

    HYUFD said:



    A centrist party in the UK like 1980 would probably be launched in alliance with the LDs

    Wouldn't that, in itself, be the kiss of death?
    It is worth remembering that in the early 1980s, the Liberals had the baggage of:

    - the LibLab Pact
    - Jeremy Thorpe
    - the embezzler guy whose name I forget

    And the pact with the SDP still - mostly - worked.

    Really, what the LDs need is (a) a better leader than Vince "Droning" Cable, and (b) a less divisive Labour leader than Jeremy Corbyn. I think there are probably quite a few pro-EU voters who fear Corbyn more than they fear leaving the EU.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    edited July 2018
    MTimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    MTimT said:

    HYUFD said:



    A centrist party in the UK like 1980 would probably be launched in alliance with the LDs

    Wouldn't that, in itself, be the kiss of death?
    As pointed out earlier the SDP Liberal Alliance was polling well over 40% halfway through the 1979 to 1983 Parliament
    The LDs of today are not the Liberals of the 1980s, neither in membership, nor substance, nor political baggage.
    Actually they are pretty much the same thing, pro EEC/EU/EEA and economically centrist between socialist Labour and the Thatcherite elements of the Tories
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    edited July 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    HYUFD said:



    A centrist party in the UK like 1980 would probably be launched in alliance with the LDs

    Wouldn't that, in itself, be the kiss of death?
    It is worth remembering that in the early 1980s, the Liberals had the baggage of:

    - the LibLab Pact
    - Jeremy Thorpe
    - the embezzler guy whose name I forget

    And the pact with the SDP still - mostly - worked.

    Really, what the LDs need is (a) a better leader than Vince "Droning" Cable, and (b) a less divisive Labour leader than Jeremy Corbyn. I think there are probably quite a few pro-EU voters who fear Corbyn more than they fear leaving the EU.
    The first point is true not the latter, the SDP Alliance got 25% in 1983 when the Socialist Foot led Labour, the highest ever voteshare for a Liberal Party since the War. A more centrist Labour leader would hoover up centrist and liberal votes as Blair did in 1997 and 2001 until the Iraq War
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited July 2018
    It is going to be interesting to see how corbonomics is going to deal with this,

    The proposed £1.4m cuts from the libraries budget was an attempt to claw back the council’s £108m deficit by 2023, according to local reports.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jul/04/banksy-offers-to-help-save-bristols-under-threat-libraries
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,352
    ITV report 24.4 million watched the England penalty shoot out

    That is not far of 40% of the Country
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Never have the first rounds of Wimbledon felt as pointless as they seem to do this year. It's difficult to envisage Federer, Nadal and the Williams sisters not going through to at least the quarter finals.
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    ITV report 24.4 million watched the England penalty shoot out

    That is not far of 40% of the Country

    That did include me using a VPN from New York.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291

    ITV report 24.4 million watched the England penalty shoot out

    That is not far of 40% of the Country

    I wonder if they include / try to estimate the viewership at these big viewing parties that are now very popular?
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    ITV report 24.4 million watched the England penalty shoot out

    That is not far of 40% of the Country

    I wonder if they include / try to estimate the viewership at these big viewing parties that are now very popular?
    Did they include the 30 or so people watching through the window of that house in Wimbledon on their way home from the tennis?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,236

    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    Yes, same here. Even if we lose, I think the team and management can come back proud of what they have achieved. A win would be amazing though, first semi-final for 28 years!

    The principle advantage of Engerland winning is you might finally STFU about '66...
    Doesn't it just means we can bang on about '18 for another 52 years?
    Two World Wars and TWO World Cups!
    I wonder how long it will be before the EU try to claim they've won it 10 times, much as they tried to do with the Olympics? :p
    Almost as perverse as claiming England won the World Wars...
    Our victories in the Seven Years War and the War of Spanish Succession were fairly comprehensive
    "Our victories"? You've taken off your SoCal hat then?
    And his British one presumably.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,970

    PBers who like my animal welfare work even if they take a dim view of some of my other thoughts may be pleased to know I've just been appointed Head of Compassion in World Farming UK (was previously just responsible for policy) - with 15 staff and hundreds of thousands of active supporters, it's the largest challenge I've ever had, and I really look forward to it.

    It does help that both major parties are currently so open to change on the issue. We are hoping that Michael Gove stays in post, regardless of what else happens this week - he's done more to shake up thinking in the area than any previous incumbent.

    Great news Nick. Its an important job and really pleased to see someone of your dedication being in charge.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,896

    PBers who like my animal welfare work even if they take a dim view of some of my other thoughts may be pleased to know I've just been appointed Head of Compassion in World Farming UK (was previously just responsible for policy) - with 15 staff and hundreds of thousands of active supporters, it's the largest challenge I've ever had, and I really look forward to it.

    It does help that both major parties are currently so open to change on the issue. We are hoping that Michael Gove stays in post, regardless of what else happens this week - he's done more to shake up thinking in the area than any previous incumbent.

    Congratulations. I was Company Secretary at Wood Green Animal Shelters, for six years, and enjoyed my time there.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,883
    MaxPB said:

    Also picked up some strawberries from Sainsbury's, they've got Driscoll's Jubilee ones in. They really are the best variety, worth the premium over standard ones.

    Enjoy.

    This time next year they'll all be rotting in fields... :(
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,195
    edited July 2018
    AndyJS said:

    Never have the first rounds of Wimbledon felt as pointless as they seem to do this year. It's difficult to envisage Federer, Nadal and the Williams sisters not going through to at least the quarter finals.

    I see they put two women's and one men's match on Centre and No 1 Courts. I see they've now put a third women's game on Centre as the Serena Williams match concluded at 17:45.

    I get that the All England Club has been criticised in the past, but if I'd paid big money for Centre Court tickets, I'd want to see two men's matches. Given that Centre now has a roof, why can't they start earlier and have two men's and two women's matches?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,360
    Many congratulations Nick. I suspect, however, your desire to keep Gove will be thwarted. There is an end of days feel about this government at the moment. May has kept it together with can kicking showing skills that would make Mo Salah gasp. People who fundamentally disagree about what is in the country’s interests have hung in there in the legitimate belief that they have more influence in the cabinet than they do outside. But the time for decisions approaches. I really can’t see all of the Cabinet staying on board whichever way May jumps.

    The result is that Gove will either be out or, more likely, moved nearer the centre as the wagons are corralled. There is far too little talent in U.K. politics to let Gove languish in his current position, no matter how good a job he is doing.
  • Options
    William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Never have the first rounds of Wimbledon felt as pointless as they seem to do this year. It's difficult to envisage Federer, Nadal and the Williams sisters not going through to at least the quarter finals.

    I see they put two women's and one men's match on Centre and No 1 Courts. I see they've now put a third women's game on Centre as the Serena Williams match concluded at 17:45.

    I get that the All England Club has been criticised in the past, but if I'd paid big money for Centre Court tickets, I'd want to see two men's matches. Given that Centre now has a roof, why can't they start earlier and have two men's and two women's matches?
    They don't want to wear out the grass
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:



    I hope you can put the brakes on the rise of industrial-scale farming which seems to be accelerating.

    Here in the Blackmore Vale we used to look out pastures with cattle grazing in them from early spring to late autumn. Now, there are hardly any cattle to be seen but I've been told the cattle population has actually increased - many are in barns all year round and the fields are cut for silage to feed them. :disappointed:

    Setting aside productivity, strangely probably better farming practice from both the point of view of soil conservation and water purity. Not so much in terms of animal welfare ...
    No, wouldn't agree (no surprise) - the direct environmental impact of industrial farming is significant, because a great deal of waste, energy use and transport is concentrated. The indirect impact is even more significant, because the animals need to be fed on grain, which is needed in such quantities by the developed world that it leads to devastation of large areas of the developing world - and competes with human consumption. By contrast, as we don't eat grass, grass-fed animals on open land have a much reduced impact (as well as it being better for the animals, of course).
    What you say is only true if you have low density cattle per acre and very thoughtful water run off plans. Otherwise, they root up the grass, break up the soil which then washes away in heavy rains, and their waste gets into the waterways, causing much pollution.

    I see the evidence in a lot of the dairy farms around us.

    We can easily agree that arable is much kinder on the land, unless too much fertilizer and insecticide is used.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100

    PBers who like my animal welfare work even if they take a dim view of some of my other thoughts may be pleased to know I've just been appointed Head of Compassion in World Farming UK (was previously just responsible for policy) - with 15 staff and hundreds of thousands of active supporters, it's the largest challenge I've ever had, and I really look forward to it.

    It does help that both major parties are currently so open to change on the issue. We are hoping that Michael Gove stays in post, regardless of what else happens this week - he's done more to shake up thinking in the area than any previous incumbent.

    Congratulations Nick Palmer on an important and interesting role, clearly plenty of life after being a Broxtowe MP
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,896
    DavidL said:

    Many congratulations Nick. I suspect, however, your desire to keep Gove will be thwarted. There is an end of days feel about this government at the moment. May has kept it together with can kicking showing skills that would make Mo Salah gasp. People who fundamentally disagree about what is in the country’s interests have hung in there in the legitimate belief that they have more influence in the cabinet than they do outside. But the time for decisions approaches. I really can’t see all of the Cabinet staying on board whichever way May jumps.

    The result is that Gove will either be out or, more likely, moved nearer the centre as the wagons are corralled. There is far too little talent in U.K. politics to let Gove languish in his current position, no matter how good a job he is doing.

    Hard to say. There was an end of days feel about the government in 1989/90, but it stayed until 1997.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    edited July 2018
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Many congratulations Nick. I suspect, however, your desire to keep Gove will be thwarted. There is an end of days feel about this government at the moment. May has kept it together with can kicking showing skills that would make Mo Salah gasp. People who fundamentally disagree about what is in the country’s interests have hung in there in the legitimate belief that they have more influence in the cabinet than they do outside. But the time for decisions approaches. I really can’t see all of the Cabinet staying on board whichever way May jumps.

    The result is that Gove will either be out or, more likely, moved nearer the centre as the wagons are corralled. There is far too little talent in U.K. politics to let Gove languish in his current position, no matter how good a job he is doing.

    Hard to say. There was an end of days feel about the government in 1989/90, but it stayed until 1997.
    Kinnock was a help to the Tories then as Corbyn is to the Tories now.

    Kinnock expected to become PM and win a general election on his second attempt, the voters thought otherwise. Corbyn may face a similar fate
  • Options
    RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359

    ITV report 24.4 million watched the England penalty shoot out

    That is not far of 40% of the Country

    I wonder if they include / try to estimate the viewership at these big viewing parties that are now very popular?
    Not according to a thread on DigitalSpy - pub/club views are on top of that.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,360

    People confuse the UK's desperate need for a new Centre Party with their being public demand for one. Of which sadly there appears to be none.

    Indeed. The Lib Dem’s were up to 9% in a recent poll which is the best I have seen them at for a while. It is a reality that remainers like to skate over.

    Nice to see you posting again. Who is the woman? She looks familiar but I can’t place her.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,360
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Many congratulations Nick. I suspect, however, your desire to keep Gove will be thwarted. There is an end of days feel about this government at the moment. May has kept it together with can kicking showing skills that would make Mo Salah gasp. People who fundamentally disagree about what is in the country’s interests have hung in there in the legitimate belief that they have more influence in the cabinet than they do outside. But the time for decisions approaches. I really can’t see all of the Cabinet staying on board whichever way May jumps.

    The result is that Gove will either be out or, more likely, moved nearer the centre as the wagons are corralled. There is far too little talent in U.K. politics to let Gove languish in his current position, no matter how good a job he is doing.

    Hard to say. There was an end of days feel about the government in 1989/90, but it stayed until 1997.
    True and turkeys and Christmas should always be borne in mind. But the passions run deep on this on both sides.
  • Options
    Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438

    ITV report 24.4 million watched the England penalty shoot out

    That is not far of 40% of the Country

    I'm in the 60%. Anti-football has won the referendum. I hope that the 40% will abide by the decision of the 60% and fall in behind those of us who don't like it... ;)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    edited July 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Many congratulations Nick. I suspect, however, your desire to keep Gove will be thwarted. There is an end of days feel about this government at the moment. May has kept it together with can kicking showing skills that would make Mo Salah gasp. People who fundamentally disagree about what is in the country’s interests have hung in there in the legitimate belief that they have more influence in the cabinet than they do outside. But the time for decisions approaches. I really can’t see all of the Cabinet staying on board whichever way May jumps.

    The result is that Gove will either be out or, more likely, moved nearer the centre as the wagons are corralled. There is far too little talent in U.K. politics to let Gove languish in his current position, no matter how good a job he is doing.

    Hard to say. There was an end of days feel about the government in 1989/90, but it stayed until 1997.
    Kinnock was a help to the Tories then as Corbyn is to the Tories now.

    Kinnock expected to become PM and win a general election on his second attempt, the voters thought otherwise. Corbyn may face a similar fate
    Plus if anyone looks like a second Tory John Major it is Sajid Javid
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    ITV report 24.4 million watched the England penalty shoot out

    That is not far of 40% of the Country

    I'm in the 60%. Anti-football has won the referendum. I hope that the 40% will abide by the decision of the 60% and fall in behind those of us who don't like it... ;)
    I think it had an 85% audience share and the figures don't count big groups very well. On Saturday we'll have 30-40 people over for the match. It will count as 3-5 viewers.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334

    The central dynamic of this market is the Transition. It's the one thing May has got right. We can leave the EU on time politically without leaving anything organisationally or economically. It delivers huge symbolic change while taking the cliff edge away. So for us not to leave by ' Brexit Day ' we need either Brexit in it's entirety to be abandoned or the Withdrawal agreement not to include a Transition. Either is possible but nowhere near as likely as those Betfair prices suggest. The market is based on sentiment that we won't be ready to leave by Brexit Day. And we won't be ready. But the Transition means that doesn't matter so we will leave anyway.

    Re Richard Nabavi's point about the Withdrawal Act: One concession wrung out by the Tory rebels was while Brexit Day is still defined innthe Act there is now a process for changing the date with fresh primary legislation.

    I wouldn't rule out extension as a possibility. It allows the can to be kicked and then the EU elections in May can further diminish the referendum mandate which will create more political space.
    Supposing the EU elections - in the very unlikely event they go ahead - produce a much stronger mandate? What then?
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also picked up some strawberries from Sainsbury's, they've got Driscoll's Jubilee ones in. They really are the best variety, worth the premium over standard ones.

    Enjoy.

    This time next year they'll all be rotting in fields... :(
    Buy raspberries, infinitely better taste IMHO. I go and pick my own, why give Supermarkets money when they rip you off , especially with raspberries?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Also picked up some strawberries from Sainsbury's, they've got Driscoll's Jubilee ones in. They really are the best variety, worth the premium over standard ones.

    Enjoy.

    This time next year they'll all be rotting in fields... :(
    Buy raspberries, infinitely better taste IMHO. I go and pick my own, why give Supermarkets money when they rip you off , especially with raspberries?
    I've got several raspberry canes and annoyingly have had one berry between the lot of them.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited July 2018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Many congratulations Nick. I suspect, however, your desire to keep Gove will be thwarted. There is an end of days feel about this government at the moment. May has kept it together with can kicking showing skills that would make Mo Salah gasp. People who fundamentally disagree about what is in the country’s interests have hung in there in the legitimate belief that they have more influence in the cabinet than they do outside. But the time for decisions approaches. I really can’t see all of the Cabinet staying on board whichever way May jumps.

    The result is that Gove will either be out or, more likely, moved nearer the centre as the wagons are corralled. There is far too little talent in U.K. politics to let Gove languish in his current position, no matter how good a job he is doing.

    Hard to say. There was an end of days feel about the government in 1989/90, but it stayed until 1997.
    Kinnock was a help to the Tories then as Corbyn is to the Tories now.

    Kinnock expected to become PM and win a general election on his second attempt, the voters thought otherwise. Corbyn may face a similar fate
    Plus if anyone looks like a second Tory John Major it is Sajid Javid
    Kinnock really did think that.... He said as much ;)


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TOgB3Smvro
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    After the discussion the other day,

    Companies must let customers cancel subscriptions online, California law says

    https://www.cnet.com/news/companies-must-let-customers-cancel-subscriptions-online-california-law-says/
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,764

    The central dynamic of this market is the Transition. It's the one thing May has got right. We can leave the EU on time politically without leaving anything organisationally or economically. It delivers huge symbolic change while taking the cliff edge away. So for us not to leave by ' Brexit Day ' we need either Brexit in it's entirety to be abandoned or the Withdrawal agreement not to include a Transition. Either is possible but nowhere near as likely as those Betfair prices suggest. The market is based on sentiment that we won't be ready to leave by Brexit Day. And we won't be ready. But the Transition means that doesn't matter so we will leave anyway.

    Re Richard Nabavi's point about the Withdrawal Act: One concession wrung out by the Tory rebels was while Brexit Day is still defined innthe Act there is now a process for changing the date with fresh primary legislation.

    I agree with this. However it probably requires the UK to agree the Northern Irish backstop. If it doesn't I think a delay to formal Brexit is more likely than either the EU dropping the requirement or a crash out with no transition. To some extent this is a stick May can wield over her headbangers. We won't Brexit until you accept the backstop. She has caved on everything else. Why stop now?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,360
    Meanwhile, the carnage continues: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-44696122

    934 Scots in drug related deaths last year. Once again the highest in Europe. That is more than 10 times the murder rate, for example. How many have to die before we recognise that what we are doing isn't working?
  • Options
    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    I've been working out my fuel economy cross-sectional area for my record commute the other day. I did 113mpg which is pretty much 40kmpl. That, therefore, is 1000cm3 of fuel to 4,000,000cm. So the area is 1/4,000cm2 or 0.00025cm2. If it's a cylinder, we divide by pi, square root and double to get the diameter of the cylinder of fuel I use. That gives me a 0.017cm, or 0.17mm fuel diameter.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,502

    Re Salisbury: The fact that in the last few hours the Met has taken over the investigation and COBRA is meeting suggests the story has taken a signifigant turn for the worse.

    I hope it is food poisoning or dodgy drugs in the end as the implications of it being a second chemical weapons attack are dire indeed.

    The Russians really want to win that World Cup.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,502

    Charles said:

    PBers who like my animal welfare work even if they take a dim view of some of my other thoughts may be pleased to know I've just been appointed Head of Compassion in World Farming UK (was previously just responsible for policy) - with 15 staff and hundreds of thousands of active supporters, it's the largest challenge I've ever had, and I really look forward to it.

    It does help that both major parties are currently so open to change on the issue. We are hoping that Michael Gove stays in post, regardless of what else happens this week - he's done more to shake up thinking in the area than any previous incumbent.

    So Policy doesn't include compassion? Or is Compassion not policy?

    (congratulations, by the way)
    Thanks to you and all the other good wishes. I know it's a tease, but in case you actually wondered, essentially up to now I was responsible for international policy, while the new job concentrates on the UK, including policy, but expands to cover all aspects of the charity's work.
    Congrats.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060
    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, the carnage continues: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-44696122

    934 Scots in drug related deaths last year. Once again the highest in Europe. That is more than 10 times the murder rate, for example. How many have to die before we recognise that what we are doing isn't working?

    That's tragic. But it also doesn't mean that a favoured alternative will work any better ...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    The silly lady who made a comment on twitter to losing to people who eat beans on toast is getting proper owned by the twitter mob.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291

    Re Salisbury: The fact that in the last few hours the Met has taken over the investigation and COBRA is meeting suggests the story has taken a signifigant turn for the worse.

    I hope it is food poisoning or dodgy drugs in the end as the implications of it being a second chemical weapons attack are dire indeed.

    The Russians really want to win that World Cup.
    I really wouldn’t fancy being the VAR ref for Russian games.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    ydoethur said:

    The central dynamic of this market is the Transition. It's the one thing May has got right. We can leave the EU on time politically without leaving anything organisationally or economically. It delivers huge symbolic change while taking the cliff edge away. So for us not to leave by ' Brexit Day ' we need either Brexit in it's entirety to be abandoned or the Withdrawal agreement not to include a Transition. Either is possible but nowhere near as likely as those Betfair prices suggest. The market is based on sentiment that we won't be ready to leave by Brexit Day. And we won't be ready. But the Transition means that doesn't matter so we will leave anyway.

    Re Richard Nabavi's point about the Withdrawal Act: One concession wrung out by the Tory rebels was while Brexit Day is still defined innthe Act there is now a process for changing the date with fresh primary legislation.

    I wouldn't rule out extension as a possibility. It allows the can to be kicked and then the EU elections in May can further diminish the referendum mandate which will create more political space.
    Supposing the EU elections - in the very unlikely event they go ahead - produce a much stronger mandate? What then?
    Assuming the Conservatives and Labour were both officially running on a platform of respecting the referendum it’s difficult to imagine a result that could be interpreted that way given that UKIP won the previous election.
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    Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    MaxPB said:



    I think it had an 85% audience share and the figures don't count big groups very well. On Saturday we'll have 30-40 people over for the match. It will count as 3-5 viewers.

    Well goodness only knows what the other 15% of the audience were watching. There's not usually any point in we non-football fans even bothering to check the TV listings during a tournament as there's never anything worth watching.

    Nonetheless, despite my own aversion to football, I genuinely hope that you and your 40 friends have a good time on Saturday and that you get the result that you want. :)

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676
    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, the carnage continues: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-44696122

    934 Scots in drug related deaths last year. Once again the highest in Europe. That is more than 10 times the murder rate, for example. How many have to die before we recognise that what we are doing isn't working?

    The difference is that murder victims are innocent victims, dead smack-heads bring it on themselves.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291

    MaxPB said:



    I think it had an 85% audience share and the figures don't count big groups very well. On Saturday we'll have 30-40 people over for the match. It will count as 3-5 viewers.

    Well goodness only knows what the other 15% of the audience were watching. There's not usually any point in we non-football fans even bothering to check the TV listings during a tournament as there's never anything worth watching.

    Nonetheless, despite my own aversion to football, I genuinely hope that you and your 40 friends have a good time on Saturday and that you get the result that you want. :)

    Reruns of Love island ?
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676

    Re Salisbury: The fact that in the last few hours the Met has taken over the investigation and COBRA is meeting suggests the story has taken a signifigant turn for the worse.

    I hope it is food poisoning or dodgy drugs in the end as the implications of it being a second chemical weapons attack are dire indeed.

    The Russians really want to win that World Cup.
    I really wouldn’t fancy being the VAR ref for Russian games.
    The game will be epic:

    VAR and Peace.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Rhubarb said:

    ITV report 24.4 million watched the England penalty shoot out

    That is not far of 40% of the Country

    I wonder if they include / try to estimate the viewership at these big viewing parties that are now very popular?
    Not according to a thread on DigitalSpy - pub/club views are on top of that.
    Yes there is currently no way to record overnight viewing figures for bars/pubs/commercial premises. ITV hub coverage peaked at 1.1m, added to those watching away from homes we are talking around half the UK imo.

    The viewing figures were proportionally highest in the North (as usual), but also incredibly Ulster and Scotland had proportionally more men watching than London. I think this is partly because of London's international, less English flavour, liberal people having a greater aversion to football, more alternative options for things to do on a Tuesday night and also Londoners are more likely to have watched the match in pubs and bars.

    Either way staggering viewing figures that wont be repeated until the semi final (if we make it!).
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Given the lack of enthusiasm prior to the World Cup the viewing figures are quite incredible.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    edited July 2018

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, the carnage continues: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-44696122

    934 Scots in drug related deaths last year. Once again the highest in Europe. That is more than 10 times the murder rate, for example. How many have to die before we recognise that what we are doing isn't working?

    That's tragic. But it also doesn't mean that a favoured alternative will work any better ...
    Many still hark back to the Rolleston era, claiming that his approach led to 'forty years of tranquility' (https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=3944&context=lcp) while seriously downplaying the fact the system collapsed in the face of the age of rock and especially rave culture.

    It's doubly ironic that it was ultimately the approach of Malcolm Delevingne, who was rather sniffily dismissed by Virginia Berridge as 'almost forgotten' (in unfavourable contrast to Rolleston) that had to be revived to deal with it.

    The truth is of course that if there were easy solutions to the drug problem, we'd already be doing them.

    I would also remind David that even on a conservative estimate, 934 is less than 10% of total drug related deaths in Scotland.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334
    edited July 2018

    ydoethur said:

    The central dynamic of this market is the Transition. It's the one thing May has got right. We can leave the EU on time politically without leaving anything organisationally or economically. It delivers huge symbolic change while taking the cliff edge away. So for us not to leave by ' Brexit Day ' we need either Brexit in it's entirety to be abandoned or the Withdrawal agreement not to include a Transition. Either is possible but nowhere near as likely as those Betfair prices suggest. The market is based on sentiment that we won't be ready to leave by Brexit Day. And we won't be ready. But the Transition means that doesn't matter so we will leave anyway.

    Re Richard Nabavi's point about the Withdrawal Act: One concession wrung out by the Tory rebels was while Brexit Day is still defined innthe Act there is now a process for changing the date with fresh primary legislation.

    I wouldn't rule out extension as a possibility. It allows the can to be kicked and then the EU elections in May can further diminish the referendum mandate which will create more political space.
    Supposing the EU elections - in the very unlikely event they go ahead - produce a much stronger mandate? What then?
    Assuming the Conservatives and Labour were both officially running on a platform of respecting the referendum it’s difficult to imagine a result that could be interpreted that way given that UKIP won the previous election.
    Both of them will therefore be running (sic: standing) on a platform of leaving the EU. If they win a significant majority of the votes - at a guess, 75% is likely - that's a much stronger mandate to leave than the Referendum.

    Edit - this is all pretty hypothetical anyway. We won't be taking part in the elections unless a series of highly unlikely events coincide.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,883
    Evening all :)

    This is a betting site, allegedly, so I'm going to talk about betting.

    This is a political betting site, allegedly, but I don't bet on politics any more. I did my proverbials on LD seats in 2015 and learnt a valuable lesson about not betting on sentiment.

    If that applies to politics, it must also apply to other things. Looking at Paddy Power, I see England are 10/11 to win the QF in 90 minutes while Sweden are 7/2 and the Draw is 13/8.

    This makes absolutely no sense to me from a form and value perspective - I make Sweden favourites and 7/2 looks the bet of the year to me. I also note Croatia are 6/5 favourites and Russia 11/4 which doesn't suggest much sentiment at work from the Paddy odds makers.

    I generally bet against England in matches at major tournaments and over the years have made money - last night, I backed Columbia to win in 90 minutes and hedged on the draw. I backed Belgium last week and the draw in the Tunisia match.

    It's not a question of not being patriotic - if you are betting you have to leave all that at the door. Should England, on what we've seen, be 10/11 and should Sweden, on what we've seen, be 7/2?

    I'm also tempted by Belgium at 13/5 but they'll need 90 minutes plus ET to wear down Brazil so also backing 12/5 the draw looks a sound contingency.
This discussion has been closed.