politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unless Moggsy has the backing of 158 CON MPs for his oust TMay
Comments
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Different circumstances as Dave went voluntarily.Alistair said:
Is that the same as when Dave told the House repeatedly he'd stay on after losing the referendum?TheScreamingEagles said:
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
Plus Dave didn’t want the referendum to be used as a vote to oust him.
He saw first hand with the AV referendum what happens when the voters use a referendum to punish a party leader.0 -
Indeed so, he was terribly unlucky in Baku especially, getting a puncture two laps from the end while leading the race. Niki Lauda hinted over the weekend that they’ve pretty much done a deal to keep him at Mercedes for the next couple of years, so it looks like after all the rumours the top six are going to stay in exactly the same seats - unless Ricciardo takes a massive cheque to go replace Alonso at McLaren.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, it's a bit irksome that Bottas isn't doing better. Due to misfortune he's lost about 60 odd points.
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Good posts on this and some cracking auto-corrects.Sandpit said:
Agreed. There was a rather disturbing documentary on I think C5 a purple of months back, exploring cockiness use in the UK, which is now at epidemic levels. You make a good point about the price, black markets tend to work pretty well as economic markets, with quality and price working themselves out among regular users and dealers. This is especially true when there is good information around, which is increasingly the case with online sales rather than street deals dominating.DavidL said:
I read an article a week or so ago which had cannabis growers complaining that supply had so exceeded demand that the price had gone through the floor and they were not recovering their costs. More worryingly, the price of cocaine had fallen about 20% too.Sandpit said:
Yup, and he’ll get the plaudits for being the first of the major party leaders to suggest it.Dura_Ace said:I see JC has finally wised up to the electoral goldmine of legalising cannabis. He's as thick as fuck but he gets there in the end.
IEA report (not known for being fans of Corbyn!) the other day suggested the U.K. cannabis market would yield £1bn in tax if it were set up like the cigarrete market.
It’s clear the current drugs policy isn’t working, there’s drugs everywhere and the money is all flowing to the gangs. Drugs policy needs to be one way or the other, like Portugal and Amsterdam or like Bangkok and Dubai. Some wishy washy middle way is worse than useless, in fact it’s killing people.
The measure of success in the war on drugs is the street price. If the police were intercepting enough to have any impact it would be rising. In fact the price has been falling for almost all drugs for a very long time. A politician brave enough to say that our current policies have simply failed would, I suspect, tap a lot of support.
A falling price means that either demand is slowing or supply increasing, and in the UK the evidence is pretty clear that it’s the latter.
The choice for authorities is binary, either they take control of the market themselves, or start handing out meaningful prison sentences to everyone involved in the drugs trade.0 -
29 degrees forecast on Friday... I hope the meeting room at Chequers has good air conditioning or it is going to be a very bad tempered meeting!0
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Drug use is, so far as anyone can tell, lower than a decade ago.
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/statistics-on-drug-misuse/2018
"•In 2016/17, around 1 in 12 (8.5 per cent) adults aged 16 to 59 in England and Wales had taken an illicit drug in the last year.
•This level of drug use was similar to the 2015/16 survey (8.4 per cent), but is significantly lower than a decade ago (10.1 per cent in the 2006/07 survey)."0 -
It has been said many times by politicians of all stripes "nobody voted to be poorer"Morris_Dancer said:Keeping the UK in the customs union might please some businesses but it would be completely contrary to the spirit of the vote.
Since that is the result, in what way is leaving the single market respecting the spirit of the vote?0 -
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The most important news of the week if not this century.
https://twitter.com/melissareddy_/status/1013678209441943552?s=210 -
LOL, damn phone autocorrect, they stick out like a sore thumb as soon as you look at it on a normal screen! I’d never get a job as a proof reader.TOPPING said:
Good posts on this and some cracking auto-corrects.Sandpit said:
Agreed. There was a rather disturbing documentary on I think C5 a purple of months back, exploring cockiness use in the UK, which is now at epidemic levels. You make a good point about the price, black markets tend to work pretty well as economic markets, with quality and price working themselves out among regular users and dealers. This is especially true when there is good information around, which is increasingly the case with online sales rather than street deals dominating.DavidL said:
I read an article a week or so ago which had cannabis growers complaining that supply had so exceeded demand that the price had gone through the floor and they were not recovering their costs. More worryingly, the price of cocaine had fallen about 20% too.Sandpit said:
Yup, and he’ll get the plaudits for being the first of the major party leaders to suggest it.Dura_Ace said:I see JC has finally wised up to the electoral goldmine of legalising cannabis. He's as thick as fuck but he gets there in the end.
IEA report (not known for being fans of Corbyn!) the other day suggested the U.K. cannabis market would yield £1bn in tax if it were set up like the cigarrete market.
It’s clear the current drugs policy isn’t working, there’s drugs everywhere and the money is all flowing to the gangs. Drugs policy needs to be one way or the other, like Portugal and Amsterdam or like Bangkok and Dubai. Some wishy washy middle way is worse than useless, in fact it’s killing people.
The measure of success in the war on drugs is the street price. If the police were intercepting enough to have any impact it would be rising. In fact the price has been falling for almost all drugs for a very long time. A politician brave enough to say that our current policies have simply failed would, I suspect, tap a lot of support.
A falling price means that either demand is slowing or supply increasing, and in the UK the evidence is pretty clear that it’s the latter.
The choice for authorities is binary, either they take control of the market themselves, or start handing out meaningful prison sentences to everyone involved in the drugs trade.0 -
Awesome news!!TheScreamingEagles said:The most important news of the week if not this century.
https://twitter.com/melissareddy_/status/1013678209441943552?s=210 -
The LDs and the SNP and Chuka Umunna and about 130 Labour MPs from mainly Remain seats voted to stay in the single market last month but leaving the single market still got an over 200 vote majority as most MPs represent Leave seatsedmundintokyo said:
Likewise the LibDems and the SNP. You could see them wanting something in return though. Like a second referendum, which May probably wants as well, if only she had the political cover...Philip_Thompson said:Corbyn will vote against the Brexit deal yes, especially since he wants a harder Brexit, but that doesn't mean all Labour MPs will. If May backs a soft Brexit then Chuka Umunma is not going to back a WTO Brexit over that.
Lets not forget Labour is still the party where almost 100% of MPs backed Remain and 80% of MPs voted No Confidence in Corbyn. They're not going to just blindly vote for a WTO Brexit just to spite May.0 -
Hospital admissions are up, and deaths are at their highest since 1993. What gives me pause are the large changes since 2015-16: is there a methodological difference that might explain large changes in such a short time?AlastairMeeks said:Drug use is, so far as anyone can tell, lower than a decade ago.
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/statistics-on-drug-misuse/2018
"•In 2016/17, around 1 in 12 (8.5 per cent) adults aged 16 to 59 in England and Wales had taken an illicit drug in the last year.
•This level of drug use was similar to the 2015/16 survey (8.4 per cent), but is significantly lower than a decade ago (10.1 per cent in the 2006/07 survey)."0 -
Mr. P, arguing that voting to leave the EU means the electorate wants the EU to dictate our trade policy without having to consider our economy at all is to stretch logic beyond breaking point.
Mr. Sandpit, indeed, Bottas has been driving well this year. Given I backed him to be top 3, his misfortune is especially irksome.
Ricciardo seemed frustrated with Red Bull after qualifying. I do wonder if he'll be off to McLaren. That said, the Raikkonen rumour suggests not.0 -
Seems sensible and is the way of travelScott_P said:0 -
I suspect those are rationalisations and that most people really voted Leave because they don't like the EU and understand it even less and don't want anything to do with it. They are doomed to disappointment and frustration. When outside the EU will intrude far more into their lives in uncongenial ways than it ever did before.AlastairMeeks said:
There has been polling on this:Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, other nations are perfectly capable of negotiating such things as part of free trade agreements, I see no reason we can't do likewise.
Mr. Meeks, you're claiming to know the minds of those you continually disparage. Controlling migration was part of the campaign, not the whole campaign. Believing every one of the millions who voted Leave were xenophobic is as daft as believing every one of the millions who voted Remain want the UK to join the single currency.
https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/961908728801976320?s=210 -
Likewise ....TheScreamingEagles said:The most important news of the week if not this century.
https://twitter.com/melissareddy_/status/1013678209441943552?s=21
Leading up to the Chequers match on Friday, Mrs May has signed a new five day deal to remain as Prime Minister. It contains no release clause from the Conservative BREXIT catastrophe.0 -
'The West is a British and American construct, if you guys lose interest in it there is no West-
https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfBrianCox/status/10125865739160002560 -
Presumably that's related to the drugs being taken? It's much easier to overdose with opioids.DecrepitJohnL said:
Hospital admissions are up, and deaths are at their highest since 1993. What gives me pause are the large changes since 2015-16: is there a methodological difference that might explain large changes in such a short time?AlastairMeeks said:Drug use is, so far as anyone can tell, lower than a decade ago.
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/statistics-on-drug-misuse/2018
"•In 2016/17, around 1 in 12 (8.5 per cent) adults aged 16 to 59 in England and Wales had taken an illicit drug in the last year.
•This level of drug use was similar to the 2015/16 survey (8.4 per cent), but is significantly lower than a decade ago (10.1 per cent in the 2006/07 survey)."0 -
But "staying in the single market/customs union" while 'leaving' is surely worse than just staying in.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seems sensible and is the way of travelScott_P said:0 -
That's not what I am arguing.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, arguing that voting to leave the EU means the electorate wants the EU to dictate our trade policy without having to consider our economy at all is to stretch logic beyond breaking point.
Our economy is booming within the EU, and will suffer upon leaving.
And voters are going to be very upset.0 -
I seriously doubt that the Tory party has the balls bring down TMay. Its the weakest Govt with the worst opposition in living memory.JackW said:
Likewise ....TheScreamingEagles said:The most important news of the week if not this century.
https://twitter.com/melissareddy_/status/1013678209441943552?s=21
Leading up to the Chequers match on Friday, Mrs May has signed a new five day deal to remain as Prime Minister. It contains no release clause from the Conservative BREXIT catastrophe.
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You may be right but you may be wrong and the voters have made their choice.Scott_P said:
That's not what I am arguing.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, arguing that voting to leave the EU means the electorate wants the EU to dictate our trade policy without having to consider our economy at all is to stretch logic beyond breaking point.
Our economy is booming within the EU, and will suffer upon leaving.
And voters are going to be very upset.0 -
Mr Meeks,
I don't understand exactly what a Customs Union is, but if it means we can't make our own trade deals, we're not a sovereign country. And if we have to accept totally uncontrolled immigration from the EU, then we're not a sovereign country.
You may believe we're too poor and too wee to be a sovereign country, that is up to you, but you lost the referendum - and you're one of the few fanatical Remainers to understand that.
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It's clearly crunch time - but there won't be a deal. Its patently clear that the cabinet can argue as long as they like about fantasy customs arrangements, the EU has already rejected them all. That parliament can vote against freedom of movement knowing that its either freedom of movement or the shutters come down on the economy. That "fuck business" and "it won't happen its Project Fear" is wilful suspension of sanity.
We triggered A50 which means we leave next March whether we're still arguinmg with ourselves or not. Whilst a last minute route to avoid this - delay departure or accept EEA - remains practically possible I don't believe they are politically possible.
Once the politicians realise they have been "double-crossed" by an EU whose negotiation position has been resolute from the start, they will start eating each other, and who knows how that will pan out. Once punters realise that they have been massively lied to - that their "Brexit Dividend" is a shortage of food, fuel and medicines and a loss of employment - I fear that civil unrest and the emergence of some nastier politics is inevitable.
So let Jacob tell us May will go. She will. Whether its a planned coup or she just gets put up against the metaphorical wall abruptly one morning.0 -
Perhaps but would the pattern of use have changed so markedly in such a short time? I was wondering if there has been a change in the way deaths are classified. Your mentioning opioids prompts the thought that perhaps the Gosport deaths suddenly got dumped into the statistics en masse. Presumably someone far better qualified will comment in the medical press in due course.AlastairMeeks said:
Presumably that's related to the drugs being taken? It's much easier to overdose with opioids.DecrepitJohnL said:
Hospital admissions are up, and deaths are at their highest since 1993. What gives me pause are the large changes since 2015-16: is there a methodological difference that might explain large changes in such a short time?AlastairMeeks said:Drug use is, so far as anyone can tell, lower than a decade ago.
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/statistics-on-drug-misuse/2018
"•In 2016/17, around 1 in 12 (8.5 per cent) adults aged 16 to 59 in England and Wales had taken an illicit drug in the last year.
•This level of drug use was similar to the 2015/16 survey (8.4 per cent), but is significantly lower than a decade ago (10.1 per cent in the 2006/07 survey)."0 -
You mentioned 7 seats, that sounds possible, given a following wind - and eminently ignorable.HYUFD said:
On current polling with the two main parties neck and neck their influence would be significant and they could win very strong Leave seats like Labour Rotherham and Don Valley and Stoke Central and Tory Thanet South, Boston and Skegness and Clacton and Thurrock etc if free movement stayed in place.logical_song said:
So how many seats would a New UKIP party win with 13% of the vote. Look at how many the Liberals/LibDems won with say 18% in previous elections. Maybe 20 on a good day - they could still be ignored, especially if Labour formed the Government.HYUFD said:
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, they only failed to win many seats in 2015 despite 12% of the vote as Cameron promised an EU referendum, if the main promised change of that referendum failed to occur UKIP would revive rapidly. Which is of course precisely the reason Labour MPs in Leave seats and Tory MPs in Leave seats will never support a Brexit deal which leaves free movement unchecked and fully in placePhilip_Thompson said:
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.HYUFD said:
The amendment was to stay in the EEA and there will be ZERO change in any future vote either as Labour MPs representing Remain seats ALREADY voted to support the amendment to stay in the EEA and Labour MPs like Flint voted to Leave the EEA and will vote so FOREVER if necessary as they know a vote to stay in the single market is POLITICAL SUICIDE in their LEAVE voting seats.
Corbyn REFUSED to vote for the EEA as he is IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED to staying in the single market and most TORY MPs voted to LEAVE the EEA as it would also be POLITICAL SUICIDE for them to vote to stay in the single market with full free movement as the VAST MAJORITY of Tory seats voted LEAVE.
That is my final word on the matter tonight as I am not spending all night repeating the same points verbatim. Goodnight
Good night.
In any case, UKIP with their many former leaders are a joke it will be very difficult for them to resurface.
Though as I said earlier this is all hypothetical as both May and Corbyn are committee to leaving the single market
Given the behaviour of UKIP representatives in the past that may add to the enjoyment of following politics until they defect or resign.0 -
Cox is criticised for straying from particle physics but it is clear he is quoting someone else who may or may not be an expert in diplomatic history.HYUFD said:'The West is a British and American construct, if you guys lose interest in it there is no West-
https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfBrianCox/status/10125865739160002560 -
That shows oddly enough that a majority of the population don't associate the Leave campaign with immigration.AlastairMeeks said:
There has been polling on this:Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, other nations are perfectly capable of negotiating such things as part of free trade agreements, I see no reason we can't do likewise.
Mr. Meeks, you're claiming to know the minds of those you continually disparage. Controlling migration was part of the campaign, not the whole campaign. Believing every one of the millions who voted Leave were xenophobic is as daft as believing every one of the millions who voted Remain want the UK to join the single currency.
https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/961908728801976320?s=210 -
Britain already is a sovereign country. Anyone who states that it isn't is immediately self-identifying as unhinged.CD13 said:Mr Meeks,
I don't understand exactly what a Customs Union is, but if it means we can't make our own trade deals, we're not a sovereign country. And if we have to accept totally uncontrolled immigration from the EU, then we're not a sovereign country.
You may believe we're too poor and too wee to be a sovereign country, that is up to you, but you lost the referendum - and you're one of the few fanatical Remainers to understand that.
What I believe is that those Leavers for whom hatred of the EU is paramount are blinding themselves as to why others voted for Leave. They are arguing that their own views are reflective of why others voted for Leave in the teeth of all available evidence.
I'm open-minded on the customs union question. I'm not going to be persuaded by anyone appealing to fascist will of the people arguments.0 -
That's the point though. "Nobody voted to be poorer"Philip_Thompson said:You may be right but you may be wrong and the voters have made their choice.
If that transpires, voters will not take to the streets to thank politicians for "respecting the spirit of the vote"
Pitchforks and piano wire more likely
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No those were just examples, any seats which voted over 60/65% Leave could fall to UKIP if we stayed in the single market and customs union with free movement unchanged at the next general election maybe a few with Leave margins less that that.logical_song said:
You mentioned 7 seats, that sounds possible, given a following wind - and eminently ignorable.HYUFD said:
On current polling with the two main parties neck and neck their influence would be significant and they could win very strong Leave seats like Labour Rotherham and Don Valley and Stoke Central and Tory Thanet South, Boston and Skegness and Clacton and Thurrock etc if free movement stayed in place.logical_song said:
So how many seats would a New UKIP party win with 13% of the vote. Look at how many the Liberals/LibDems won with say 18% in previous elections. Maybe 20 on a good day - they could still be ignored, especially if Labour formed the Government.HYUFD said:
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, free movement unchecked and fully in placePhilip_Thompson said:
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.HYUFD said:
The amendment was to stay in the EEA and there will be ZERO change in any future vote either as Labour MPs representing Remain seats ALREADY voted to support the amendment to stay in the EEA and Labour MPs like Flint voted to Leave the EEA and will vote so FOREVER if necessary as they know a vote to stay in the single market is POLITICAL SUICIDE in their LEAVE voting seats.
Corbyn REFUSED to vote for the EEA as he is IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED to staying in the single market and most TORY MPs voted to LEAVE the EEA as it would also be POLITICAL SUICIDE for them to vote to stay in the single market with full free movement as the VAST MAJORITY of Tory seats voted LEAVE.
That is my final word on the matter tonight as I am not spending all night repeating the same points verbatim. Goodnight
Good night.
In any case, UKIP with their many former leaders are a joke it will be very difficult for them to resurface.
Though as I said earlier this is all hypothetical as both May and Corbyn are committee to leaving the single market
Given the behaviour of UKIP representatives in the past that may add to the enjoyment of following politics until they defect or resign.
Which is why both May and Corbyn have committed to leave the single market and end free movement0 -
Other reasons might be the strength of the drugs, e.g. cannabis versus skunk, or increased supply leading to purer drugs, and people overdosing on amounts they could cope with before.DecrepitJohnL said:
Perhaps but would the pattern of use have changed so markedly in such a short time? I was wondering if there has been a change in the way deaths are classified. Your mentioning opioids prompts the thought that perhaps the Gosport deaths suddenly got dumped into the statistics en masse. Presumably someone far better qualified will comment in the medical press in due course.AlastairMeeks said:
Presumably that's related to the drugs being taken? It's much easier to overdose with opioids.DecrepitJohnL said:
Hospital admissions are up, and deaths are at their highest since 1993. What gives me pause are the large changes since 2015-16: is there a methodological difference that might explain large changes in such a short time?AlastairMeeks said:Drug use is, so far as anyone can tell, lower than a decade ago.
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/statistics-on-drug-misuse/2018
"•In 2016/17, around 1 in 12 (8.5 per cent) adults aged 16 to 59 in England and Wales had taken an illicit drug in the last year.
•This level of drug use was similar to the 2015/16 survey (8.4 per cent), but is significantly lower than a decade ago (10.1 per cent in the 2006/07 survey)."0 -
If is a big word. If it doesn't happen I still doubt you'll admit you're wrong.Scott_P said:
That's the point though. "Nobody voted to be poorer"Philip_Thompson said:You may be right but you may be wrong and the voters have made their choice.
If that transpires, voters will not take to the streets to thank politicians for "respecting the spirit of the vote"
Pitchforks and piano wire more likely0 -
Pity the poor voters.SquareRoot said:
I seriously doubt that the Tory party has the balls bring down TMay. Its the weakest Govt with the worst opposition in living memory.JackW said:
Likewise ....TheScreamingEagles said:The most important news of the week if not this century.
https://twitter.com/melissareddy_/status/1013678209441943552?s=21
Leading up to the Chequers match on Friday, Mrs May has signed a new five day deal to remain as Prime Minister. It contains no release clause from the Conservative BREXIT catastrophe.
Faced the choice of the Conservatives riven with dissent, backbiting and incompetence and that's just the cabinet and the Labour party in thrall to a third rate life time student leader with a political back story straight out of a hard left fantasy tale.
If we truly get the leaders we deserve then the nation must have committed the gravest of sins - was it pineapple pizza ?!?
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Gove, is key (how many times have we said that now? no wonder he is favourite successor in the markets) - if the discussions at the end of the week aim to keep us in a low orbit vassalage, I suspect he'll reject it along with Fox, Davis and BoJo.
If that happens, May can't survive.0 -
Javid is now the favourite.Mortimer said:Gove, is key (how many times have we said that now? no wonder he is favourite successor in the markets) - if the discussions at the end of the week aim to keep us in a low orbit vassalage, I suspect he'll reject it along with Fox, Davis and BoJo.
If that happens, May can't survive.0 -
Surprise surprise Wollaston's understanding of history seems pretty rubbish.Scott_P said:
How about aiming for frictionless and free trade with the whole world?
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Many farmers and shire Tories backed the corn laws and the liberals are much weaker now than thenScott_P said:0 -
JackW said:
Pity the poor voters.SquareRoot said:
I seriously doubt that the Tory party has the balls bring down TMay. Its the weakest Govt with the worst opposition in living memory.JackW said:
Likewise ....TheScreamingEagles said:The most important news of the week if not this century.
https://twitter.com/melissareddy_/status/1013678209441943552?s=21
Leading up to the Chequers match on Friday, Mrs May has signed a new five day deal to remain as Prime Minister. It contains no release clause from the Conservative BREXIT catastrophe.
Faced the choice of the Conservatives riven with dissent, backbiting and incompetence and that's just the cabinet and the Labour party in thrall to a third rate life time student leader with a political back story straight out of a hard left fantasy tale.
If we truly get the leaders we deserve then the nation must have committed the gravest of sins - was it pineapple pizza ?!?
No... it was daytime TV
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Incidentally, I see the Remainers still haven't found a message that works.
'business destroying hard Brexit' is less intelligible than 'freedom to strike trade deals'. And that really is saying something.0 -
I go away for one weekend and I can't keep up!TheScreamingEagles said:
Javid is now the favourite.Mortimer said:Gove, is key (how many times have we said that now? no wonder he is favourite successor in the markets) - if the discussions at the end of the week aim to keep us in a low orbit vassalage, I suspect he'll reject it along with Fox, Davis and BoJo.
If that happens, May can't survive.0 -
There have been so many 'crunch' events in the last few months that another one just provokes a shrug. May will probably prevail, no one will resign, they won't oust her, things will stagger on.0
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Pensions seem to be getting a lot of press coverage lately -- features rather than news. Is this where the next crisis will emerge once Brexit is put to bed and England has won the World Cup or is it just that a couple of newspaper editors are pondering their own retirement?0
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In practical terms I've never understood this 'we want our own trade deals and we want them now' as a symbol of national virility.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
There's the position within the party and then the position of the party itself.
Keeping the UK in the customs union might please some businesses but it would be completely contrary to the spirit of the vote. And for those who might cite the letter of the vote, I'd point out that's the Brown line on not having a referendum on Lisbon. It doesn't wash.
A large part of the campaign was the ability to strike our own deals. Voting to leave the EU then having the PM try and keep us subject to the EU on trade, whereby we must do as the EU does and the EU need not take any account of our interest (or economic harm) when negotiating such matters) would not sit well with the electorate.
In a transition period of defined length, it would likely cause few problems. If such a period were, or became, indefinite, that's a different kettle of fish.
Now I do think the UK could negotiate more advantageous trade deals if the people doing so were competent.
That's if the people doing so were competent.
But there's nothing I see from our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert' diplomats which suggests they are competent.
So its an area that we should proceed in with caution and lack of haste.
Or would you be willing to accept worse trade deals than present as long as they were negotiated by Liam Fox ?0 -
Do you have links to these features ?DecrepitJohnL said:Pensions seem to be getting a lot of press coverage lately -- features rather than news. Is this where the next crisis will emerge once Brexit is put to bed and England has won the World Cup or is it just that a couple of newspaper editors are pondering their own retirement?
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On topic, I can always tell when the editor/deputy editor are worried when they post a thread like this.
If May does face a leadership challenge there is a high chance she goes because there are plenty of Remain MPs who think she’s not much cop either.
I wouldn’t rule out a sizeable number of the ERG voting for Javid or Hunt either.0 -
Can you give me a few bullet points on what frictionless trade involves and suggestions for how to do this on a global basis?Mortimer said:
Surprise surprise Wollaston's understanding of history seems pretty rubbish.Scott_P said:
How about aiming for frictionless and free trade with the whole world?0 -
It could be that Prof Weinstock's Global Drug Survey was beginning to challenge official figures aroung then.What we know is that the strength of opiates has increasedx50 in carfentanyl, the strength of MDMA has doubled ,cocaine purity is now 80% as government has clamped down on availability of contaminants,London being the cocaine capital of Europe with the Houses of Parliament in Westminster the capital of the capital,the UK is the opiate overdose king of Europe and of course we have a prohibitionist anti-cannabis drugs minister whose husband is growing the stuff under HO licence for GW Pharma as boss of British sugar in vast greenhouses in west Norfolk.We also know that the UK is the largest exporter of medical cannabis in the world yet UK cannabis patients remain criminalised.DecrepitJohnL said:
Hospital admissions are up, and deaths are at their highest since 1993. What gives me pause are the large changes since 2015-16: is there a methodological difference that might explain large changes in such a short time?AlastairMeeks said:Drug use is, so far as anyone can tell, lower than a decade ago.
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/statistics-on-drug-misuse/2018
"•In 2016/17, around 1 in 12 (8.5 per cent) adults aged 16 to 59 in England and Wales had taken an illicit drug in the last year.
•This level of drug use was similar to the 2015/16 survey (8.4 per cent), but is significantly lower than a decade ago (10.1 per cent in the 2006/07 survey)."0 -
What Labour Remainers should say [ and to Corbyn as well ] is that all the worker's rights like maternity pay , paternity pay, part-time worker rights, holiday pay etc etc could be in jeopardy after Brexit. It was with this that Delors at the 1988 TUC conference changed the Left's view of EC / EU.Mortimer said:Incidentally, I see the Remainers still haven't found a message that works.
'business destroying hard Brexit' is less intelligible than 'freedom to strike trade deals'. And that really is saying something.
All these rights have been transferred to UK law but it just takes a majority Tory government to change all that. Corbyn should bear that in mind. He can do all sorts of things like nationalisation. Equally, a majority Tory government could dispense with or dilute many worker's rights.0 -
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Yes, the way she publicly pissed on Cameron’s deal was very damaging and probably gave cover for some Tory MPs to go against the government who wouldn’t otherwise have done so.Casino_Royale said:0 -
Weren't the Corn Laws the equivalent of the Common Agricultural Policy ?Scott_P said:0 -
I was told by someone that Gove is fuming at Boris once again.
Thanks to Boris the Leavers are furious at the perception that they are the fuck business wing of the Tory party.
Not surprising that Remain Tories are portraying themselves are pro business.
That Gove will endorse Boris is one for the fairies.0 -
Shouldn't you start with your biggest market and also from where your supply components come from, at least, for the next 5 - 10 years.Mortimer said:
Surprise surprise Wollaston's understanding of history seems pretty rubbish.Scott_P said:
How about aiming for frictionless and free trade with the whole world?0 -
Mr P,
Just because you think that you're really really right, it doesn't mean you are. Most people think they have better judgement than average. That explains the Remainer arrogance and their irritation. The Leavers must have poor judgement because they don't agree with you.
Most people, Remainers included, think we should get on with Brexit. But when you're dealing with Eurocrats, you need a hard deadline for any progress to take place. The talk of extending deadlines merely encourages this attitude.
Delay things long enough and we can have a 'peoples' vote and if that fails, a real peoples' vote and then a final, deciding vote until the Leavers come to their senses. Their judgement is poor, you know.
0 -
An Osborne government might have tried to reduce workers rights but I doubt anyone else would.surby said:
What Labour Remainers should say [ and to Corbyn as well ] is that all the worker's rights like maternity pay , paternity pay, part-time worker rights, holiday pay etc etc could be in jeopardy after Brexit. It was with this that Delors at the 1988 TUC conference changed the Left's view of EC / EU.Mortimer said:Incidentally, I see the Remainers still haven't found a message that works.
'business destroying hard Brexit' is less intelligible than 'freedom to strike trade deals'. And that really is saying something.
All these rights have been transferred to UK law but it just takes a majority Tory government to change all that. Corbyn should bear that in mind. He can do all sorts of things like nationalisation. Equally, a majority Tory government could dispense with or dilute many worker's rights.0 -
Like Black Wednesday, some Remainers appear oblivious to the fact that they aren't furthering their case.another_richard said:
Weren't the Corn Laws the equivalent of the Common Agricultural Policy ?Scott_P said:0 -
But they are...TheScreamingEagles said:Thanks to Boris the Leavers are furious at the perception that they are the fuck business wing of the Tory party.
0 -
That'd be neccesarily inside the single market, outside the customs union. The issue is the spirit of the vote (The polling shows overwhemingly the single most important issue was immigration) demands an end to FoM.Mortimer said:
Surprise surprise Wollaston's understanding of history seems pretty rubbish.Scott_P said:
How about aiming for frictionless and free trade with the whole world?
0 -
Slightly surprising to see Jacob Rees-Mogg reminiscing fondly about Conservatives in the past seeking to profiteer at the expense of the Irish when he's just about to open his new fund there. Curious marketing technique but no doubt he knows what he's doing.0
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Croatia can be laid at 7.4 on Ladbrokes Exchange (7.2 Betfair) for the World Cup.
Tempted to hedge my small 36 bet.
Edited extra bit: hmm, Russia are 3.15 to beat them. Could look at that instead. Or just let it ride.
The agony of choice.0 -
Big business is a lot less popular than it once might have been.TheScreamingEagles said:I was told by someone that Gove is fuming at Boris once again.
Thanks to Boris the Leavers are furious at the perception that they are the fuck business wing of the Tory party.
Not surprising that Remain Tories are portraying themselves are pro business.
That Gove will endorse Boris is one for the fairies.
From the banks to BHS to Carillion they've trashed their own image in a way the Dave Sparts could never have managed.
Not helped by years of troughing by the executive oligarchy while the earnings of employees stagnated.0 -
Mr Surby.
"All these rights have been transferred to UK law but it just takes a majority Tory government to change all that."
It would have to be a spectacularly old-fashioned and right wing government to do that, but that's why democracy is dangerous, isn't it? Best stick to a dictatorship of the proletariat led by enlightened forward thinkers. Who are these people? Why self-selected groups of fanatics, of course, and you're either with them or you're an enemy.
That's why I became disillusioned with the hard Left.0 -
Does that mean that you were at one stage enthusiastic about the hard left?CD13 said:Mr Surby.
"All these rights have been transferred to UK law but it just takes a majority Tory government to change all that."
It would have to be a spectacularly old-fashioned and right wing government to do that, but that's why democracy is dangerous, isn't it? Best stick to a dictatorship of the proletariat led by enlightened forward thinkers. Who are these people? Why self-selected groups of fanatics, of course, and you're either with them or you're an enemy.
That's why I became disillusioned with the hard Left.0 -
I've not bet on the world cup except for TP's superb South Korea tip, but I'd be tempted to let your Croatia bet ride. I think they're the best side in the bottom half of the draw now - last night was a definite blip against an organised Danish side.Morris_Dancer said:Croatia can be laid at 7.4 on Ladbrokes Exchange (7.2 Betfair) for the World Cup.
Tempted to hedge my small 36 bet.
Edited extra bit: hmm, Russia are 3.15 to beat them. Could look at that instead. Or just let it ride.
The agony of choice.
Their keeper looks fantastic which is important at this stage.0 -
Mr Song,
At seventeen, I joined the University Socialist Society. That was the beginning of my gradual disillusionment. It took a few years, but I got better eventually.0 -
FPT from @SeanT: "Macron is going to be a fascinating test case: can one capable, charismatic, and constitutionally very powerful politician change his country WITHIN the strictures of the EU? If Macron does this, then Brexit was a mistake."
Didn't Thatcher do just this to Britain, while still in the EU?0 -
Apparently the 'back of the queue' line was fed to Obama by Dave. A misjudgement if ever there was one, if the vote was held that day I'd probably have ticked the leave box.0
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That was fairly obvious by the word queue at the time wasn't it? An American like Obama would have said back of the line or something like that if he'd organically written it (which I doubt he would have).Pulpstar said:Apparently the 'back of the queue' line was fed to Obama by Dave. A misjudgement if ever there was one, if the vote was held that day I'd probably have ticked the leave box.
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While in the EEC yes she did.Cyclefree said:FPT from @SeanT: "Macron is going to be a fascinating test case: can one capable, charismatic, and constitutionally very powerful politician change his country WITHIN the strictures of the EU? If Macron does this, then Brexit was a mistake."
Didn't Thatcher do just this to Britain, while still in the EU?0 -
Indeed after the pro big business Blair and Cameron years, the Brexit and Corbyn votes were rejections of a pro big business agendaanother_richard said:
Big business is a lot less popular than it once might have been.TheScreamingEagles said:I was told by someone that Gove is fuming at Boris once again.
Thanks to Boris the Leavers are furious at the perception that they are the fuck business wing of the Tory party.
Not surprising that Remain Tories are portraying themselves are pro business.
That Gove will endorse Boris is one for the fairies.
From the banks to BHS to Carillion they've trashed their own image in a way the Dave Sparts could never have managed.
Not helped by years of troughing by the executive oligarchy while the earnings of employees stagnated.0 -
Was confirmed by the author of "The way the world is (I think)" this morning on the radio. Yes it didn't sound entirely Obama but I didn't think it particularly helpful at the time so wasn't entirely sure we'd fed him the line on that basis.Philip_Thompson said:
That was fairly obvious by the word queue at the time wasn't it? An American like Obama would have said back of the line or something like that if he'd organically written it (which I doubt he would have).Pulpstar said:Apparently the 'back of the queue' line was fed to Obama by Dave. A misjudgement if ever there was one, if the vote was held that day I'd probably have ticked the leave box.
0 -
Cameron always had a cringe-making self-abasement towards Obama.Pulpstar said:Apparently the 'back of the queue' line was fed to Obama by Dave. A misjudgement if ever there was one, if the vote was held that day I'd probably have ticked the leave box.
0 -
Miss Cyclefree, the EU didn't exist at the time, it was the EEC.
Mr. Pulpstar, it was widely suggested at the time. I remember it well, the staunch Remainers here were cock-a-hoop, the Leavers thought it outrageous. It definitely backfired.
Edited extra bit: I'll bear that in mind, Mr. Pulpstar. I am tempted to just leave it.
Anyway, I ought to meander in the approximate direction of productivity.0 -
It'll be a complex, hybrid fudge that Barnier will tell her to poke up her hole after about 5 minutes.williamglenn said:0 -
Which the EU will once again say "no" to. How many times do dipshits on both front benches have to produce some fantasy island bullshit proposal only to be told its a non-starter?williamglenn said:
Its a simple negotiation. The EU have the power pendulum firmly on their side, they have set out a position which consists of pre-existing rules and they aren't moving. Whatever we ask has to be something they are in a position to give, and tearing up the rule book for the UK isn't that. We think we are big and important, and its a matter of weeks before we get fed into the Total Perspective Vortex and finally realise just how small we really are in the scheme of things.0 -
I laid off my Croatia bet last night.Pulpstar said:
I've not bet on the world cup except for TP's superb South Korea tip, but I'd be tempted to let your Croatia bet ride. I think they're the best side in the bottom half of the draw now - last night was a definite blip against an organised Danish side.Morris_Dancer said:Croatia can be laid at 7.4 on Ladbrokes Exchange (7.2 Betfair) for the World Cup.
Tempted to hedge my small 36 bet.
Edited extra bit: hmm, Russia are 3.15 to beat them. Could look at that instead. Or just let it ride.
The agony of choice.
Their keeper looks fantastic which is important at this stage.0 -
Is that another way of saying, 'unworkable'?williamglenn said:0 -
During before or after the match >?rottenborough said:
I laid off my Croatia bet last night.Pulpstar said:
I've not bet on the world cup except for TP's superb South Korea tip, but I'd be tempted to let your Croatia bet ride. I think they're the best side in the bottom half of the draw now - last night was a definite blip against an organised Danish side.Morris_Dancer said:Croatia can be laid at 7.4 on Ladbrokes Exchange (7.2 Betfair) for the World Cup.
Tempted to hedge my small 36 bet.
Edited extra bit: hmm, Russia are 3.15 to beat them. Could look at that instead. Or just let it ride.
The agony of choice.
Their keeper looks fantastic which is important at this stage.0 -
The aim is not to come up with a negotiating position that will be effective or realistic. The aim is to come up with a negotiating position that will hold the Conservative party together. Theresa May is, as I noted a while back, penelopising, ravelling and unravelling as she plays for time until the choice is made for her.RochdalePioneers said:
Which the EU will once again say "no" to. How many times do dipshits on both front benches have to produce some fantasy island bullshit proposal only to be told its a non-starter?williamglenn said:
Its a simple negotiation. The EU have the power pendulum firmly on their side, they have set out a position which consists of pre-existing rules and they aren't moving. Whatever we ask has to be something they are in a position to give, and tearing up the rule book for the UK isn't that. We think we are big and important, and its a matter of weeks before we get fed into the Total Perspective Vortex and finally realise just how small we really are in the scheme of things.0 -
Backlash against JRM this morning:AlastairMeeks said:Slightly surprising to see Jacob Rees-Mogg reminiscing fondly about Conservatives in the past seeking to profiteer at the expense of the Irish when he's just about to open his new fund there. Curious marketing technique but no doubt he knows what he's doing.
https://twitter.com/AlanDuncanMP/status/10136765449450168320 -
May is trying to survive and keep her party together. Corbyn probably means what he says but his MPs are not behind him on this.HYUFD said:
No those were just examples, any seats which voted over 60/65% Leave could fall to UKIP if we stayed in the single market and customs union with free movement unchanged at the next general election maybe a few with Leave margins less that that.logical_song said:
You mentioned 7 seats, that sounds possible, given a following wind - and eminently ignorable.HYUFD said:
On current polling with the two main parties neck and neck their influence would be significant and they could win very strong Leave seats like Labour Rotherham and Don Valley and Stoke Central and Tory Thanet South, Boston and Skegness and Clacton and Thurrock etc if free movement stayed in place.logical_song said:
So how many seats would a New UKIP party win with 13% of the vote. Look at how many the Liberals/LibDems won with say 18% in previous elections. Maybe 20 on a good day - they could still be ignored, especially if Labour formed the Government.HYUFD said:
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, free movement unchecked and fully in placePhilip_Thompson said:
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.HYUFD said:
The amendment was to stay in the EEA and there will be ZERO change in any future vote either as Labour MPs representing
That is my final word on the matter tonight as I am not spending all night repeating the same points verbatim. Goodnight
Good night.
In any case, UKIP with their many former leaders are a joke it will be very difficult for them to resurface.
Though as I said earlier this is all hypothetical as both May and Corbyn are committee to leaving the single market
Given the behaviour of UKIP representatives in the past that may add to the enjoyment of following politics until they defect or resign.
Which is why both May and Corbyn have committed to leave the single market and end free movement
The public, who voted marginally in favour of Leaving have seen how quickly the Leave promises have been abandoned and have learnt more about the problems involved with leaving.
UKIP will not rise again, no matter what. Even if they did get back up to the heady heights in the opinion polls they were at before, remember that they were not successful at winning seats (except for 2 defectors) and FPTP will ensure that remains the case.0 -
The delay (For the cabinet meeting), as Edmund in Japan has pointed out was utterly ridiculous.AlastairMeeks said:
The aim is not to come up with a negotiating position that will be effective or realistic. The aim is to come up with a negotiating position that will hold the Conservative party together. Theresa May is, as I noted a while back, penelopising, ravelling and unravelling as she plays for time until the choice is made for her.RochdalePioneers said:
Which the EU will once again say "no" to. How many times do dipshits on both front benches have to produce some fantasy island bullshit proposal only to be told its a non-starter?williamglenn said:
Its a simple negotiation. The EU have the power pendulum firmly on their side, they have set out a position which consists of pre-existing rules and they aren't moving. Whatever we ask has to be something they are in a position to give, and tearing up the rule book for the UK isn't that. We think we are big and important, and its a matter of weeks before we get fed into the Total Perspective Vortex and finally realise just how small we really are in the scheme of things.0 -
Ah, the 'zeal of the convert'.CD13 said:Mr Song,
At seventeen, I joined the University Socialist Society. That was the beginning of my gradual disillusionment. It took a few years, but I got better eventually.0 -
Before. Loss of nerve partly. Still I can't lose now and they may yet go all the way as this is turning into a very open cup.Pulpstar said:
During before or after the match >?rottenborough said:
I laid off my Croatia bet last night.Pulpstar said:
I've not bet on the world cup except for TP's superb South Korea tip, but I'd be tempted to let your Croatia bet ride. I think they're the best side in the bottom half of the draw now - last night was a definite blip against an organised Danish side.Morris_Dancer said:Croatia can be laid at 7.4 on Ladbrokes Exchange (7.2 Betfair) for the World Cup.
Tempted to hedge my small 36 bet.
Edited extra bit: hmm, Russia are 3.15 to beat them. Could look at that instead. Or just let it ride.
The agony of choice.
Their keeper looks fantastic which is important at this stage.0 -
Croatia are a good side but it is rarely too early to take a profit. I'm letting my 12/1 ride but things might look different from 36s.Pulpstar said:
I've not bet on the world cup except for TP's superb South Korea tip, but I'd be tempted to let your Croatia bet ride. I think they're the best side in the bottom half of the draw now - last night was a definite blip against an organised Danish side.Morris_Dancer said:Croatia can be laid at 7.4 on Ladbrokes Exchange (7.2 Betfair) for the World Cup.
Tempted to hedge my small 36 bet.
Edited extra bit: hmm, Russia are 3.15 to beat them. Could look at that instead. Or just let it ride.
The agony of choice.
Their keeper looks fantastic which is important at this stage.
Switzerland might be the last remaining value bet at 33/1 generally. They have the highest FIFA rating (by no means infallible!) in the bottom half of the draw, looked good when holding Brazil to a draw, and showed their spirit by coming back from a goal down to beat Serbia. Their next match is against Sweden tomorrow.0 -
He’s not exactly going to be a unity candidate for next Tory leader, is he?rottenborough said:
Backlash against JRM this morning:AlastairMeeks said:Slightly surprising to see Jacob Rees-Mogg reminiscing fondly about Conservatives in the past seeking to profiteer at the expense of the Irish when he's just about to open his new fund there. Curious marketing technique but no doubt he knows what he's doing.
https://twitter.com/AlanDuncanMP/status/10136765449450168320 -
I'm on Sweden to win the whole thing at 70-1. They have knocked out Holland, Italy and Germany (though they lost to them), and they defeated France in the qualifiers.DecrepitJohnL said:
Croatia are a good side but it is rarely too early to take a profit. I'm letting my 12/1 ride but things might look different from 36s.Pulpstar said:
I've not bet on the world cup except for TP's superb South Korea tip, but I'd be tempted to let your Croatia bet ride. I think they're the best side in the bottom half of the draw now - last night was a definite blip against an organised Danish side.Morris_Dancer said:Croatia can be laid at 7.4 on Ladbrokes Exchange (7.2 Betfair) for the World Cup.
Tempted to hedge my small 36 bet.
Edited extra bit: hmm, Russia are 3.15 to beat them. Could look at that instead. Or just let it ride.
The agony of choice.
Their keeper looks fantastic which is important at this stage.
Switzerland might be the last remaining value bet at 33/1 generally. They have the highest FIFA rating (by no means infallible!) in the bottom half of the draw, looked good when holding Brazil to a draw, and showed their spirit by coming back from a goal down to beat Serbia. Their next match is against Sweden tomorrow.0 -
Sir Alan Duncan could be the unity candidate though.AlastairMeeks said:
He’s not exactly going to be a unity candidate for next Tory leader, is he?rottenborough said:
Backlash against JRM this morning:AlastairMeeks said:Slightly surprising to see Jacob Rees-Mogg reminiscing fondly about Conservatives in the past seeking to profiteer at the expense of the Irish when he's just about to open his new fund there. Curious marketing technique but no doubt he knows what he's doing.
https://twitter.com/AlanDuncanMP/status/1013676544945016832
If he stands on a platform of making his private views on Boris public then Sir Alan wins by a landslide.0 -
The fact that those are the two things most people remember does not mean that is what drove the vote. You are confusing things the public can remember with things the public was bothered about.AlastairMeeks said:
The public remember two things about Vote Leave’s campaign: the lie on the bus and keeping out foreigners. You’re confusing things you’re bothered about with things the public was bothered about.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, that's nonsense. You've decided the vote was about xenophobia and nothing else, and that is not the case.
Many times, striking our own trade deals was mentioned, and that requires leaving the customs union.
People who enjoy a more accurate representation of recent history may enjoy my post-race analysis of the excellent Austrian race, including a look at the significant changes to the standings:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/07/austria-post-race-analysis-2018.html
Memory is fallible. People's recollection of events is often at odds with the reality. In this case the fact that some Remainers have, since the day after the referendum, been constantly saying that the vote was driven by xenophobia and lies on a bus is a clear factor in ensuring that this is what most people remember about the campaign. The fact that this view has been repeated by remain-leaning media also helps drive public perception.
To know what really drove the vote we should look at polls taken at the time, not polls months after the event asking what people can remember. These show that the biggest concern by far was that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK, i.e. the ability to control our own laws. Around half of all leave voters cited this as their main reason for wanting to leave the EU. In second place was a desire to regain control over immigration and our own borders (around one third of leave voters) followed by concern over the UK having little or no say in how the EU expanded its membership or its powers (around one in eight).
So yes, concern around immigration was a major factor but it wasn't the most important. You appear to class any concern around immigration as xenophobia. Some of it undoubtedly is. But calling everyone with concerns about immigration racist is just plain wrong.0 -
The manufacturing PMI comes in higher than expected and effectively 'steady as she goes':
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/dc253d06a70d48ef8a7d8a545def0584
Now will this get as much coverage as some tweets from people who have not previously shown any interest in manufacturing ?0 -
We apparently have 6 weeks left. They've had 2 years so far and been unable to agree on anything other than their hatred for each other. So the notion that they will somehow manage to look past their mutual loathing and come up with something they can all agree on that Parliament will agree on that Barnier will agree on that Varadkar will agree on is absurd.Pulpstar said:
The delay (For the cabinet meeting), as Edmund in Japan has pointed out was utterly ridiculous.AlastairMeeks said:
The aim is not to come up with a negotiating position that will be effective or realistic. The aim is to come up with a negotiating position that will hold the Conservative party together. Theresa May is, as I noted a while back, penelopising, ravelling and unravelling as she plays for time until the choice is made for her.RochdalePioneers said:
Which the EU will once again say "no" to. How many times do dipshits on both front benches have to produce some fantasy island bullshit proposal only to be told its a non-starter?williamglenn said:
Its a simple negotiation. The EU have the power pendulum firmly on their side, they have set out a position which consists of pre-existing rules and they aren't moving. Whatever we ask has to be something they are in a position to give, and tearing up the rule book for the UK isn't that. We think we are big and important, and its a matter of weeks before we get fed into the Total Perspective Vortex and finally realise just how small we really are in the scheme of things.
The only questions that remain are:
1. Once the politicians of all sides realise we're out of time and fucked what do they do?
2. Once the public realise they were sold snake oil and are told to adopt bulldog spirit as we plan for a big contraction in the economy and mass shortages what do they do?
There IS a way out - either beg the EU to extend A50 or accept EEA. But May won't survive either, the government would almost certainly go with her, and even then there's no guarantee that Jezbollah would back a climb down.0
