Pensions seem to be getting a lot of press coverage lately -- features rather than news. Is this where the next crisis will emerge once Brexit is put to bed and England has won the World Cup or is it just that a couple of newspaper editors are pondering their own retirement?
The public remember two things about Vote Leave’s campaign: the lie on the bus and keeping out foreigners. You’re confusing things you’re bothered about with things the public was bothered about.
The fact that those are the two things most people remember does not mean that is what drove the vote. You are confusing things the public can remember with things the public was bothered about.
Memory is fallible. People's recollection of events is often at odds with the reality. In this case the fact that some Remainers have, since the day after the referendum, been constantly saying that the vote was driven by xenophobia and lies on a bus is a clear factor in ensuring that this is what most people remember about the campaign. The fact that this view has been repeated by remain-leaning media also helps drive public perception.
To know what really drove the vote we should look at polls taken at the time, not polls months after the event asking what people can remember. These show that the biggest concern by far was that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK, i.e. the ability to control our own laws. Around half of all leave voters cited this as their main reason for wanting to leave the EU. In second place was a desire to regain control over immigration and our own borders (around one third of leave voters) followed by concern over the UK having little or no say in how the EU expanded its membership or its powers (around one in eight).
So yes, concern around immigration was a major factor but it wasn't the most important. You appear to class any concern around immigration as xenophobia. Some of it undoubtedly is. But calling everyone with concerns about immigration racist is just plain wrong.
Not only that but of course those surveyed will have included both Leavers and Remainers. If Mr Meeks was surveyed he would say "immigration" or "xenophobic lies" drove the Leave vote. Yet only a minority of people surveyed in his link said immigration.
Slightly surprising to see Jacob Rees-Mogg reminiscing fondly about Conservatives in the past seeking to profiteer at the expense of the Irish when he's just about to open his new fund there. Curious marketing technique but no doubt he knows what he's doing.
He’s not exactly going to be a unity candidate for next Tory leader, is he?
JRM's only influence could ever be as king-maker and even that depends on the doubtful proposition that he could deliver the ERG for one Brexiteer over another. He should have stuck to running for Speaker.
Pensions seem to be getting a lot of press coverage lately -- features rather than news. Is this where the next crisis will emerge once Brexit is put to bed and England has won the World Cup or is it just that a couple of newspaper editors are pondering their own retirement?
The public remember two things about Vote Leave’s campaign: the lie on the bus and keeping out foreigners. You’re confusing things you’re bothered about with things the public was bothered about.
The fact that those are the two things most people remember does not mean that is what drove the vote. You are confusing things the public can remember with things the public was bothered about.
Memory is fallible. People's recollection of events is often at odds with the reality. In this case the fact that some Remainers have, since the day after the referendum, been constantly saying that the vote was driven by xenophobia and lies on a bus is a clear factor in ensuring that this is what most people remember about the campaign. The fact that this view has been repeated by remain-leaning media also helps drive public perception.
To know what really drove the vote we should look at polls taken at the time, not polls months after the event asking what people can remember. These show that the biggest concern by far was that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK, i.e. the ability to control our own laws. Around half of all leave voters cited this as their main reason for wanting to leave the EU. In second place was a desire to regain control over immigration and our own borders (around one third of leave voters) followed by concern over the UK having little or no say in how the EU expanded its membership or its powers (around one in eight).
So yes, concern around immigration was a major factor but it wasn't the most important. You appear to class any concern around immigration as xenophobia. Some of it undoubtedly is. But calling everyone with concerns about immigration racist is just plain wrong.
So it's your position that something is both utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote? Get real.
Croatia can be laid at 7.4 on Ladbrokes Exchange (7.2 Betfair) for the World Cup.
Tempted to hedge my small 36 bet.
Edited extra bit: hmm, Russia are 3.15 to beat them. Could look at that instead. Or just let it ride.
The agony of choice.
I've not bet on the world cup except for TP's superb South Korea tip, but I'd be tempted to let your Croatia bet ride. I think they're the best side in the bottom half of the draw now - last night was a definite blip against an organised Danish side. Their keeper looks fantastic which is important at this stage.
Croatia are a good side but it is rarely too early to take a profit. I'm letting my 12/1 ride but things might look different from 36s.
Switzerland might be the last remaining value bet at 33/1 generally. They have the highest FIFA rating (by no means infallible!) in the bottom half of the draw, looked good when holding Brazil to a draw, and showed their spirit by coming back from a goal down to beat Serbia. Their next match is against Sweden tomorrow.
I'm on Sweden to win the whole thing at 70-1. They have knocked out Holland, Italy and Germany (though they lost to them), and they defeated France in the qualifiers.
I've followed you in at 50.0 on Betfair for £20. The defeat to Germany was from a very last minute set piece, so in the normal scheme of things that'd be a draw. Essentially I think we're relying on draws followed by penalties now. Uruguay seem to be good value at 17.0 but they have the toughest route of all teams I reckon now so I actually think they're probably a bit of a value trap.
You have to dig behind the "no more foreigners"/immigration/more £ for the NHS and ask what drove people to vote. This wasn't just the poor and dispossessed, it wasn't just the gammon people, it encompassed a large number of different people who were unhappy with the status quo.
I'm absolutely sure some people are just racist. But for so many the migration thing is "they took our jobs" is "I'm struggling". The NHS thing is "services are run down". The wrapper around the whole thing is that in the real world outside of statistics large parts of the UK are struggling.
Question is what happens when all those people - and the millions more who feel the same way but voted remain - realise there isn't a silver bullet aside from the one they just fired to make things a whole lot worse.
I am clear on two things - very little chance that the next election will be in 2022, very little chance that Con or Lab will form a majority. Beyond that who knows, both main parties are ripe for a split...
The public remember two things about Vote Leave’s campaign: the lie on the bus and keeping out foreigners. You’re confusing things you’re bothered about with things the public was bothered about.
The fact that those are the two things most people remember does not mean that is what drove the vote. You are confusing things the public can remember with things the public was bothered about.
Memory is fallible. People's recollection of events is often at odds with the reality. In this case the fact that some Remainers have, since the day after the referendum, been constantly saying that the vote was driven by xenophobia and lies on a bus is a clear factor in ensuring that this is what most people remember about the campaign. The fact that this view has been repeated by remain-leaning media also helps drive public perception.
To know what really drove the vote we should look at polls taken at the time, not polls months after the event asking what people can remember. These show that the biggest concern by far was that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK, i.e. the ability to control our own laws. Around half of all leave voters cited this as their main reason for wanting to leave the EU. In second place was a desire to regain control over immigration and our own borders (around one third of leave voters) followed by concern over the UK having little or no say in how the EU expanded its membership or its powers (around one in eight).
So yes, concern around immigration was a major factor but it wasn't the most important. You appear to class any concern around immigration as xenophobia. Some of it undoubtedly is. But calling everyone with concerns about immigration racist is just plain wrong.
So it's your position that something is both utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote? Get real.
My position is that memory is fallible. It clearly is, or do you want to deny that? Your position is that people's memory of something that happened months ago is more reliable than what they said at the time. You are the one who needs to get real.
So it's your position that something is both utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote? Get real.
My position is that memory is fallible. It clearly is, or do you want to deny that? Your position is that people's memory of something that happened months ago is more reliable than what they said at the time. You are the one who needs to get real.
I repeat, your position is that something can be both utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote. Absurd.
You may be right but you may be wrong and the voters have made their choice.
That's the point though. "Nobody voted to be poorer"
If that transpires, voters will not take to the streets to thank politicians for "respecting the spirit of the vote"
Pitchforks and piano wire more likely
Only if they blame Brexit for becoming poorer.
People are already a lot poorer because of the financial crash caused by the banks, but they blame immigrants for their predicament - hence the Brexit vote. If Brexit makes us poorer again expect there to be a search for scapegoats.
So it's your position that something is both utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote? Get real.
My position is that memory is fallible. It clearly is, or do you want to deny that? Your position is that people's memory of something that happened months ago is more reliable than what they said at the time. You are the one who needs to get real.
I repeat, your position is that something can be both utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote. Absurd.
I repeat, your position is that memory is infallible. It is often the case that people decide X for reason Y then, some time later, forget their main reason (and, indeed, sometimes forget what they decided). I am not saying that something is utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote. I am saying that asking people at the time is a far more reliable way of finding out why they voted for X than asking them months later what they remember about the campaign. Do you really want to deny that? Really?
So somewhat under half of respondents to the poll said they were worried about immigration, a sizeable minority bought the "Brexit Dividend" fantasy argument, while the majority can't really for the life of themselves remember why they voted Leave. A couple of deluded folk who had misunderstood our constitutional standing said it was on account of sovereignty, a couple more were furious at the banana situation, and one or two were keen to sign exciting new trade deals with Tonga.
Amazing, really.
And yes, Remain lost to all of that. Which just goes to show that the Remain campaign was perfectly jugded, and it was the anti-foreigner vote wot won it. Remain couldn't really campaign by calling out, true as it may have been, the xenophobic tendencies of their fellow countrymen.
You may be right but you may be wrong and the voters have made their choice.
That's the point though. "Nobody voted to be poorer"
If that transpires, voters will not take to the streets to thank politicians for "respecting the spirit of the vote"
Pitchforks and piano wire more likely
Only if they blame Brexit for becoming poorer.
People are already a lot poorer because of the financial crash caused by the banks, but they blame immigrants for their predicament - hence the Brexit vote. If Brexit makes us poorer again expect there to be a search for scapegoats.
I've said for ages that a fucked up crash Brexit will be an extinction level event for any politician who gets blamed for it. And Boris "Fuck Business" Johnson is doing a great job of both trying to bring about crash Brexit and in getting the Tories in prime position to take a bath for it.
After the ship sinks what are they to say? That nobody could predict this? That the EU were unreasonable? Business will simply point out that all this was known, the government were in full possession of the facts and chose to ignore them for reasons of Dogma. At which point a minister suggests Olly Robbins is to blame, someone leaks all the paperwork showing the government knew exactly how bad it was going to be, and that will be the end of that.
So it's your position that something is both utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote? Get real.
My position is that memory is fallible. It clearly is, or do you want to deny that? Your position is that people's memory of something that happened months ago is more reliable than what they said at the time. You are the one who needs to get real.
I repeat, your position is that something can be both utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote. Absurd.
I repeat, your position is that memory is infallible. It is often the case that people decide X for reason Y then, some time later, forget their main reason (and, indeed, sometimes forget what they decided). I am not saying that something is utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote. I am saying that asking people at the time is a far more reliable way of finding out why they voted for X than asking them months later what they remember about the campaign. Do you really want to deny that? Really?
My position is emphatically not that memory is infallible. So, back to your absurdity. Are you yet ready to accept that something utterly forgettable is self-evidently not vital to reflect the vote?
You may be right but you may be wrong and the voters have made their choice.
That's the point though. "Nobody voted to be poorer"
If that transpires, voters will not take to the streets to thank politicians for "respecting the spirit of the vote"
Pitchforks and piano wire more likely
Only if they blame Brexit for becoming poorer.
People are already a lot poorer because of the financial crash caused by the banks, but they blame immigrants for their predicament - hence the Brexit vote. If Brexit makes us poorer again expect there to be a search for scapegoats.
I've said for ages that a fucked up crash Brexit will be an extinction level event for any politician who gets blamed for it. And Boris "Fuck Business" Johnson is doing a great job of both trying to bring about crash Brexit and in getting the Tories in prime position to take a bath for it.
After the ship sinks what are they to say? That nobody could predict this? That the EU were unreasonable? Business will simply point out that all this was known, the government were in full possession of the facts and chose to ignore them for reasons of Dogma. At which point a minister suggests Olly Robbins is to blame, someone leaks all the paperwork showing the government knew exactly how bad it was going to be, and that will be the end of that.
I don't think the Brexiteers will go so quietly. There has already been a lot of pre-emptive attempts to blame the EU, or Ireland, or traitors in the judiciary/civil service/parliament/etc. Things could become very ugly.
You may be right but you may be wrong and the voters have made their choice.
That's the point though. "Nobody voted to be poorer"
If that transpires, voters will not take to the streets to thank politicians for "respecting the spirit of the vote"
Pitchforks and piano wire more likely
Only if they blame Brexit for becoming poorer.
People are already a lot poorer because of the financial crash caused by the banks, but they blame immigrants for their predicament - hence the Brexit vote. If Brexit makes us poorer again expect there to be a search for scapegoats.
I've said for ages that a fucked up crash Brexit will be an extinction level event for any politician who gets blamed for it. And Boris "Fuck Business" Johnson is doing a great job of both trying to bring about crash Brexit and in getting the Tories in prime position to take a bath for it.
After the ship sinks what are they to say? That nobody could predict this? That the EU were unreasonable? Business will simply point out that all this was known, the government were in full possession of the facts and chose to ignore them for reasons of Dogma. At which point a minister suggests Olly Robbins is to blame, someone leaks all the paperwork showing the government knew exactly how bad it was going to be, and that will be the end of that.
Funny how you're talking about dogma while being absolutely dogmatic that a hard Brexit (or default back to normal global terms most nations already act within) would be a disaster.
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
Is that the same as when Dave told the House repeatedly he'd stay on after losing the referendum?
Different circumstances as Dave went voluntarily.
Plus Dave didn’t want the referendum to be used as a vote to oust him.
He saw first hand with the AV referendum what happens when the voters use a referendum to punish a party leader.
So you are saying he deliberately mislead the House?
For the greater good. Like during war and you don’t want to give succour to your enemies.
Although I doubt anyone was really misled as that would have entailed believing him. It would have been obvious to everyone surely that he wasn't telling the truth.
Nice thread header. Tax deductible savings accounts will only ever be a very small part of the picture i think. Even in Singapore i think they are something like 10% of THE. I'm wary of expanding the amount of tax free savings when we already have such generous ISA allowances.
I think drug prices are an area that can be squeezed a bit. I think the current medical trials model is skewed towards expensive innovations and misses some things that could save money. But overall i think its normal that as a society ages, and becomes wealthier, that we would spend more money on health. We don't have to be scared of that.
There not much to do on drug prices.
U.K. Gx prices are among the lowest in the developed world. NICE is tough on pharmacoeconomics. In any event they are only around 12% of the budget
Inevitably it’s staff costs that are the biggest piece
FPT: I think there is room for improvement on drugs.
We have NICE yes, but then we also have the Cancer Drugs Fund wasting money by overpaying for ineffective drugs. I think we're also overpaying for off-patent drugs for rare conditions, a conservative friend who normally disagrees with me on everything political who works at a private equity firm told me he can't believe how profitable some of these drugs are.
But yes - this is a smallish part of the overall health pie.
Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
Is that the same as when Dave told the House repeatedly he'd stay on after losing the referendum?
Different circumstances as Dave went voluntarily.
Plus Dave didn’t want the referendum to be used as a vote to oust him.
He saw first hand with the AV referendum what happens when the voters use a referendum to punish a party leader.
So you are saying he deliberately mislead the House?
For the greater good. Like during war and you don’t want to give succour to your enemies.
Although I doubt anyone was really misled as that would have entailed believing him. It would have been obvious to everyone surely that he wasn't telling the truth.
Only the terminally stupid and Michael Gove thought Dave could continue as PM if Leave won.
Funny how you're talking about dogma while being absolutely dogmatic that a hard Brexit (or default back to normal global terms most nations already act within) would be a disaster.
I'm not being remotely dogmatic. The UK absolutely could manage very well under a WTO or FTA - its just that practically speaking we don't have the time to agree a FTA before we leave, nor do we have time to prep our facilities for adoption of WTO rules next March.
I am being entirely practical - what happens on the ground at 11pm next March 29th. Because according to the ports, HMRC, the hauliers, the importers, big business, small business, business groups et al what happens is that trade stops because we won't be ready. Whats more the GOVERNMENT know this to be the case - their mid-case scenario had Dover at a halt on 30th March and food/fuel shortages a week later. I wonder what their worst case scenario said?
Away from political rhetoric dogma and bluster there is a real world. The realities of the trading world are about to demolish the political world. And try as the Tories will to blame anyone else, its all there in precise detail what Crash Brexit means, and that delusional people like your good self have brought us to ruin through your denial of reality.
Nice thread header. Tax deductible savings accounts will only ever be a very small part of the picture i think. Even in Singapore i think they are something like 10% of THE. I'm wary of expanding the amount of tax free savings when we already have such generous ISA allowances.
I think drug prices are an area that can be squeezed a bit. I think the current medical trials model is skewed towards expensive innovations and misses some things that could save money. But overall i think its normal that as a society ages, and becomes wealthier, that we would spend more money on health. We don't have to be scared of that.
There not much to do on drug prices.
U.K. Gx prices are among the lowest in the developed world. NICE is tough on pharmacoeconomics. In any event they are only around 12% of the budget
Inevitably it’s staff costs that are the biggest piece
FPT: I think there is room for improvement on drugs.
We have NICE yes, but then we also have the Cancer Drugs Fund wasting money by overpaying for ineffective drugs. I think we're also overpaying for off-patent drugs for rare conditions, a conservative friend who normally disagrees with me on everything political who works at a private equity firm told me he can't believe how profitable some of these drugs are.
But yes - this is a smallish part of the overall health pie.
'Costs of drugs’has to include recovery of research costs. R&D staff have to eat!
"With hopes fading of a bespoke wider agreement, senior government sources say ministers are broadly being asked to choose between an intimate, Norway-style partnership and a much looser, Canada-style trade deal."
"Davis, who has long favoured what he calls a “Canada plus plus plus” approach – echoing Ottawa’s trade deal with the EU but covering services – has held a series of meetings with May in recent days."
Great. Having been fighting over two options rejected by the EU they have come up with a third. Are the EU going to give us "Canada Plus Plus Plus" in the 6 weeks left? Haven't they been very clear and consistent that we can go swivel if we want to cherry pick?
We can cancel A50 and remain. We can significantly extend A50 and remain. We can leave to EEA. Or there is the cliff edge. The only option offering true freedom is the cliff edge, albiet very brief freedom before we go splat at the bottom.
Comments
(As singles not as a double)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/pensions/article-5900575/Savers-underestimate-cost-living-retirement.html
Telegraph warns of rip-offs:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/pension-freedom-rip-off-watchdog-uncovers-opaque-products-44/
And there have been many more. I've not been reading past the headlines but was just struck that there were rather a lot of pensions stories recently.
Germany 55.9
UK 54.4
Spain 53.4
Italy 53.3
France 52.5
Not to be repeated in twatterdom today.
Uruguay seem to be good value at 17.0 but they have the toughest route of all teams I reckon now so I actually think they're probably a bit of a value trap.
I'm absolutely sure some people are just racist. But for so many the migration thing is "they took our jobs" is "I'm struggling". The NHS thing is "services are run down". The wrapper around the whole thing is that in the real world outside of statistics large parts of the UK are struggling.
Question is what happens when all those people - and the millions more who feel the same way but voted remain - realise there isn't a silver bullet aside from the one they just fired to make things a whole lot worse.
I am clear on two things - very little chance that the next election will be in 2022, very little chance that Con or Lab will form a majority. Beyond that who knows, both main parties are ripe for a split...
People are already a lot poorer because of the financial crash caused by the banks, but they blame immigrants for their predicament - hence the Brexit vote. If Brexit makes us poorer again expect there to be a search for scapegoats.
Amazing, really.
And yes, Remain lost to all of that. Which just goes to show that the Remain campaign was perfectly jugded, and it was the anti-foreigner vote wot won it. Remain couldn't really campaign by calling out, true as it may have been, the xenophobic tendencies of their fellow countrymen.
After the ship sinks what are they to say? That nobody could predict this? That the EU were unreasonable? Business will simply point out that all this was known, the government were in full possession of the facts and chose to ignore them for reasons of Dogma. At which point a minister suggests Olly Robbins is to blame, someone leaks all the paperwork showing the government knew exactly how bad it was going to be, and that will be the end of that.
We have NICE yes, but then we also have the Cancer Drugs Fund wasting money by overpaying for ineffective drugs. I think we're also overpaying for off-patent drugs for rare conditions, a conservative friend who normally disagrees with me on everything political who works at a private equity firm told me he can't believe how profitable some of these drugs are.
But yes - this is a smallish part of the overall health pie.
I am being entirely practical - what happens on the ground at 11pm next March 29th. Because according to the ports, HMRC, the hauliers, the importers, big business, small business, business groups et al what happens is that trade stops because we won't be ready. Whats more the GOVERNMENT know this to be the case - their mid-case scenario had Dover at a halt on 30th March and food/fuel shortages a week later. I wonder what their worst case scenario said?
Away from political rhetoric dogma and bluster there is a real world. The realities of the trading world are about to demolish the political world. And try as the Tories will to blame anyone else, its all there in precise detail what Crash Brexit means, and that delusional people like your good self have brought us to ruin through your denial of reality.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/02/may-to-float-third-brexit-customs-model-at-chequers-meeting
"With hopes fading of a bespoke wider agreement, senior government sources say ministers are broadly being asked to choose between an intimate, Norway-style partnership and a much looser, Canada-style trade deal."
"Davis, who has long favoured what he calls a “Canada plus plus plus” approach – echoing Ottawa’s trade deal with the EU but covering services – has held a series of meetings with May in recent days."
Great. Having been fighting over two options rejected by the EU they have come up with a third. Are the EU going to give us "Canada Plus Plus Plus" in the 6 weeks left? Haven't they been very clear and consistent that we can go swivel if we want to cherry pick?
We can cancel A50 and remain. We can significantly extend A50 and remain. We can leave to EEA. Or there is the cliff edge. The only option offering true freedom is the cliff edge, albiet very brief freedom before we go splat at the bottom.
NEW THREAD
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1013710918977572864