Plus Mrs May has said she would continue on even if she won the VONC by 1 vote - The Sunday Times
No we're not, the Commons has already voted down a Norway style arrangement after voting to leave the single market by a 200 vote majority, freedom of movement is not an option in the short term.
So a simple Canada style free trade agreement, as mentioned in the article as the main alternative, remains the most likely outcome even in big business would prefer the single market
It’s not big business. It’s business. And if the Conservatives lose the support of business I would not like to bet that they have a future.
No it is big business, many if not most small businesses voted Leave and of course farmers and the army and small business etc have a longer tradition of voting Tory than big business or the merchant classes who in the past were often Whig or Liberal
what's tradition got to do with it? 40 years ago or whatever, the Tories took us into the EU.
40 years ago or whatever? On come one, in 1978 the Tories (the opposition) took us into the EU ( which didn’t exist ). Really?
Don't try to be clever ? It does not suit you. The Tories took us into the EEC in 1973. The EEC became the EU after Maastricht in 1993 when there was a Tory government.
If the EU refuses to offer anything other than Norway its entirely possible or even probable that the Commons will vote differently next time.
No it isn't, for starters Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market and many Labour MPs in heavily Leave seats will never commit political suicide by voting for the EEA and FOM.
Barnier has said we can have a basic Canada deal but in a choice between WTO terms and full FOM and staying in the EEA then WTO terms will win in the short term if the Leave vote is to mean anything at all
No there's absolut.
Virtually all Labour MPs too would prefer Single Market over WTO if that is the stark choice.
All other MPs barring perhaps DUP would too.
The Commons arithmetic changes dramatically once a bespoke deal is off the table and the whip is applied differently.
Sigh. The House of Commons will never get to vote on what they want - they never have to vote for WTO. They can accept or reject the withdrawal bill. If they reject it, the Government cannot enact the deal with the EU. So we leave on WTO terms.
Even if the Remainers manage to stick a SM/CU amendment on something, the Government can simply ignore it. The HoC cannot direct the Executive on how to negotiate. If they don't like what the Executive are doing, they simply have the option to remove the Executive and put another in place - which is not possible as no other party has the numbers.
The big issue, as I said below, is that May does not have the numbers to pass Soft Brexit unless Labour supports her - and why should they?
Corbyn and May both do not back the EEA correct
May's changed her position on lots of things in the last 2 years. I don't trust her on this, I don't see why we should.
As she knows backing leaving the EEA is the only way she stays party leader
For now. We'll see where she stands on that by Friday or by October.
Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and when they expected a comfortable Remain win is completely different from the position now when Leave won and the vast majority of Tory seats and Tory voters voted Leave in large part to end FOM.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
UKIP is deceased.
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.
NOPE, EEA means full FOM and guaranteed Brexit betrayal narrative and would revive UKIP quicker than Lazarus likely with Farage at the helm. Tory MPs do not vote for Christmas or to see mass defections of their Leave voting Tory voters and members to UKIP in their mainly Leave Tory seats so they will vote to end FOM and leave the EEA as they already did in the vote last month
UKIP are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.
I have never voted UKIP in my life, full Brexit has extinguished their fire, fake Brexit BINO will reignite it fiercer than ever before
Sigh. The House of Commons will never get to vote on what they want - they never have to vote for WTO. They can accept or reject the withdrawal bill. If they reject it, the Government cannot enact the deal with the EU. So we leave on WTO terms.
Even if the Remainers manage to stick a SM/CU amendment on something, the Government can simply ignore it. The HoC cannot direct the Executive on how to negotiate. If they don't like what the Executive are doing, they simply have the option to remove the Executive and put another in place - which is not possible as no other party has the numbers.
The big issue, as I said below, is that May does not have the numbers to pass Soft Brexit unless Labour supports her - and why should they?
If May backs staying in the Single Market and that is her deal then yes the choice becomes that or WTO. The Commons can vote against WTO by backing her deal, no need for an amendment or anything else.
Enough Labour MPs would back a soft Brexit if it became an option because that is what they want.
Labour will not support the Govt in the withdrawal bill vote. They have already said this. Corbyn is just using Brexit to embarrass the Government. Corbyn is not stupid enough to back EEA having ruled it out. It is not his problem and there is no reason at all why Labour would gain anything tactically from voting with the Government. Even if some Labour rebels support May, there will be other Labour MPs who will vote against it and there are so many Tory MPs likely to vote it down I can't see her getting the numbers.
The only deal May can sell to her party is CETA - the Leavers will be happy and the Remainers will swallow it. Too bad May has Olly Robbins hand up her arse or she might have realised this long ago.
According to the FT 176 of 317 Tory MPs backed Remain and 138 backed Brexit.
Many of those 138 Brexiteers like Daniel Hannan will be perfectly relaxed with the EEA as a form of Brexit.
Almost all of the 176 would prefer EEA as a form of Brexit over WTO.
Ha Ha Had Hannan is not even an MEP, the overwhelming majority of Tory members and voters demand an end to FOM, May would be toppled in an instant by a hardline Brexiteer if she even contemplated staying in the EEA.
Looking at Remain voting MPs BEFORE the referendum is irrelevant, AFTER the referendum 77% of Tory seats voted Leave, an overwhelming majority and hence the vast majority of Tory MPs now represent their voters wishes
Yes they voted Leave and by going to the EEA we will have Left. If the alternative is WTO terms without having done any preparation for WTO terms then all but the most hardline will suck it up. Leaving the EEA then will be tomorrow's battle.
No we won't, that will not be Leave to most Leavers given we will still have 75% of the EU laws we had before and ZERO new immigration controls thus a complete betrayal of the pivotal reason Leave got over 50% of the vote ie to end FOM and reduce immigration.
In a decade or so once we have reduced immigration EEA may be an option, there would be hell to pay if it was considered now which is why both May and Corbyn and the Commons have all refused to endorse staying in the EEA.
It is also rubbish to suggest WTO terms is the only alternative to EEA as even Barnier has said a basic Canada style FTA is available even without EEA
Barnier's also said that if we go for that we'd basically have to let the EEA annex Northern Ireland so no that's not viable.
Actually technically he didn't as the agreement in December after the DUP complained that any deal had to be UK wide was for enough UK wide regulatory alignment to avoid a hard border which the EU signed off on
Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and when they expected a comfortable Remain win is completely different from the position now when Leave won and the vast majority of Tory seats and Tory voters voted Leave in large part to end FOM.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
UKIP is deceased.
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.
NOPE, EEA means full FOM and guaranteed Brexit betrayal narrative and would revive UKIP quicker than Lazarus likely with Farage at the helm. Tory MPs do not vote for Christmas or to see mass defections of their Leave voting Tory voters and members to UKIP in their mainly Leave Tory seats so they will vote to end FOM and leave the EEA as they already did in the vote last month
UKIP are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.
I have never voted UKIP in my life, full Brexit has extinguished their fire, fake Brexit BINO will reignite it fiercer than ever before
No it won't, too much water is under the bridge, they're too busted already and Farage etc have moved on already.
People in general are so sick of all this that all but the most extreme just want us to bloody well get on with whatever we're going to do and move on.
If the EU refuses to offer anything other than Norway its entirely possible or even probable that the Commons will vote differently next time.
No it isn't, for starters Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market and many Labour MPs in heavily Leave seats will never commit political suicide by voting for the EEA and FOM.
Barnier has said we can have a basic Canada deal but in a choice between WTO terms and full FOM and staying in the EEA then WTO terms will win in the short term if the Leave vote is to mean anything at all
No there's absolut.
Virtually all Labour MPs too would prefer Single Market over WTO if that is the stark choice.
All other MPs barring perhaps DUP would too.
The Commons arithmetic changes dramatically once a bespoke deal is off the table and the whip is applied differently.
Sigh. The House of Commons will never get to vote on what they want - they never have to vote for WTO. They can accept or reject the withdrawal bill. If they reject it, the Government cannot enact the deal with the EU. So we leave on WTO terms.
Even if the Remainers manage to stick a SM/CU amendment on something, the Government can simply ignore it. The HoC cannot direct the Executive on how to negotiate. If they don't like what the Executive are doing, they simply have the option to remove the Executive and put another in place - which is not possible as no other party has the numbers.
The big issue, as I said below, is that May does not have the numbers to pass Soft Brexit unless Labour supports her - and why should they?
Corbyn and May both do not back the EEA correct
May's changed her position on lots of things in the last 2 years. I don't trust her on this, I don't see why we should.
As she knows backing leaving the EEA is the only way she stays party leader
As we know there is no majority in Parliament for anything that is on offer currently. Once this mirage of a "bespoke" deal disappears, we will remain in a single market and a customs union and there will be a [huge] majority for that.
If the EU refuses to offer anything other than Norway its entirely possible or even probable that the Commons will vote differently next time.
No it isn't, for starters Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market and many Labour MPs in heavily Leave seats will never commit political suicide by voting for the EEA and FOM.
Barnier has said we can have a basic Canada deal but in a choice between WTO terms and full FOM and staying in the EEA then WTO terms will win in the short term if the Leave vote is to mean anything at all
No there's absolut.
Virtually all Labour MPs too would prefer Single Market over WTO if that is the stark choice.
All other MPs barring perhaps DUP would too.
The Commons arithmetic changes dramatically once a bespoke deal is off the table and the whip is applied differently.
Sigh. The House of Commons will never get to vote on what they want - they never have to vote for WTO. They can accept or reject the withdrawal bill. If they reject it, the Government cannot enact the deal with the EU. So we leave on WTO terms.
Even if the Remainers manage to stick a SM/CU amendment on something, the Government can simply ignore it. The HoC cannot direct the Executive on how to negotiate. If they don't like what the Executive are doing, they simply have the option to remove the Executive and put another in place - which is not possible as no other party has the numbers.
The big issue, as I said below, is that May does not have the numbers to pass Soft Brexit unless Labour supports her - and why should they?
Corbyn and May both do not back the EEA correct
May's changed her position on lots of things in the last 2 years. I don't trust her on this, I don't see why we should.
As she knows backing leaving the EEA is the only way she stays party leader
For now. We'll see where she stands on that by Friday or by October.
The view of the Leave voting Tory majority will not have changed by then
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
According to the FT 176 of 317 Tory MPs backed Remain and 138 backed Brexit.
Many of those 138 Brexiteers like Daniel Hannan will be perfectly relaxed with the EEA as a form of Brexit.
Almost all of the 176 would prefer EEA as a form of Brexit over WTO.
Ha Ha Had Hannan is not even an MEP, the overwhelming majority of Tory members and voters demand an end to FOM, May would be toppled in an instant by a hardline Brexiteer if she even contemplated staying in the EEA.
Looking at Remain voting MPs BEFORE the referendum is irrelevant, AFTER the referendum 77% of Tory seats voted Leave, an overwhelming majority and hence the vast majority of Tory MPs now represent their voters wishes
Yes they voted Leave and by going to the EEA we will have Left. If the alternative is WTO terms without having done any preparation for WTO terms then all but the most hardline will suck it up. Leaving the EEA then will be tomorrow's battle.
No we won't, that will not be Leave to most Leavers given we will still have 75% of the EU laws we had before and ZERO new immigration controls thus a complete betrayal of the pivotal reason Leave got over 50% of the vote ie to end FOM and reduce immigration.
In a decade or so once we have reduced immigration EEA may be an option, there would be hell to pay if it was considered now which is why both May and Corbyn and the Commons have all refused to endorse staying in the EEA.
It is also rubbish to suggest WTO terms is the only alternative to EEA as even Barnier has said a basic Canada style FTA is available even without EEA
Barnier's also said that if we go for that we'd basically have to let the EEA annex Northern Ireland so no that's not viable.
Actually technically he didn't as the agreement in December after the DUP complained that any deal had to be UK wide was for enough UK wide regulatory alignment to avoid a hard border which the EU signed off on
You can not be serious!?
Have you heard what Barnier has been saying in recent weeks!?
Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and when they expected a comfortable Remain win is completely different from the position now when Leave won and the vast majority of Tory seats and Tory voters voted Leave in large part to end FOM.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
UKIP is deceased.
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.
NOPE, EEA means full FOM and guaranteed Brexit betrayal narrative and would revive UKIP quicker than Lazarus likely with Farage at the helm. Tory MPs do not vote for Christmas or to see mass defections of their Leave voting Tory voters and members to UKIP in their mainly Leave Tory seats so they will vote to end FOM and leave the EEA as they already did in the vote last month
UKIP are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.
I have never voted UKIP in my life, full Brexit has extinguished their fire, fake Brexit BINO will reignite it fiercer than ever before
No it won't, too much water is under the bridge, they're too busted already and Farage etc have moved on already.
People in general are so sick of all this that all but the most extreme just want us to bloody well get on with whatever we're going to do and move on.
The only reason Leave won over 50% was because of working class Leave seats voting for Brexit to end FOM and reduce immigration, betray that and you betray the Leave win
If the EU refuses to offer anything other than Norway its entirely possible or even probable that the Commons will vote differently next time.
No it isn't, for starters Corbyn is ideologically opposed to the Single Market and many Labour MPs in heavily Leave seats will never commit political suicide by voting for the EEA and FOM.
Barnier has said we can have a basic Canada deal but in a choice between WTO terms and full FOM and staying in the EEA then WTO terms will win in the short term if the Leave vote is to mean anything at all
No there's absolut.
Virtually all Labour MPs too would prefer Single Market over WTO if that is the stark choice.
All other MPs barring perhaps DUP would too.
The Commons arithmetic changes dramatically once a bespoke deal is off the table and the whip is applied differently.
Sigh. The House of Commons will never get to vote on what they want - they never have to vote for WTO. They can accept or reject the withdrawal bill. If they reject it, the Government cannot enact the deal with the EU. So we leave on WTO terms.
Even if the Remainers manage to stick a SM/CU amendment on something, the Government can simply ignore it. The HoC cannot direct the Executive on how to negotiate. If they don't like what the Executive are doing, they simply have the option to remove the Executive and put another in place - which is not possible as no other party has the numbers.
The big issue, as I said below, is that May does not have the numbers to pass Soft Brexit unless Labour supports her - and why should they?
Corbyn and May both do not back the EEA correct
May's changed her position on lots of things in the last 2 years. I don't trust her on this, I don't see why we should.
As she knows backing leaving the EEA is the only way she stays party leader
As we know there is no majority in Parliament for anything that is on offer currently. Once this mirage of a "bespoke" deal disappears, we will remain in a single market and a customs union and there will be a [huge] majority for that.
No there clearly is not as every Commons vote shows Tory and Labour MPs representing Leave seats will not be Turkeys voting for Christmas and leave FOM in place and to stay in the EEA
Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and when they expected a comfortable Remain win is completely different from the position now when Leave won and the vast majority of Tory seats and Tory voters voted Leave in large part to end FOM.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
UKIP is deceased.
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.
NOPE, EEA means full FOM and guaranteed Brexit betrayal narrative and would revive UKIP quicker than Lazarus likely with Farage at the helm. Tory MPs do not vote for Christmas or to see mass defections of their Leave voting Tory voters and members to UKIP in their mainly Leave Tory seats so they will vote to end FOM and leave the EEA as they already did in the vote last month
UKIP are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.
I have never voted UKIP in my life, full Brexit has extinguished their fire, fake Brexit BINO will reignite it fiercer than ever before
For once, HYUFD is right. Except it won't be UKIP, it will be whatever vehicle that Farage chooses. But the Tories will lose a whole chunk of their Brexiteer vote and will be out of power for 20 years or more if they try this.
But HYUFD nobody is going to fall for saying that EU citizens don't have FOM just because they need a job offer. About five seconds later the country will be full of agencies that will come up with dodgy 'job offers' and once they are in they can do whatever they like. Work permits are one thing, you need to apply and be approved in advance. The EU will ever accept this in an EEA scenario.
Sigh. The House of Commons will never get to vote on what they want - they never have to vote for WTO. They can accept or reject the withdrawal bill. If they reject it, the Government cannot enact the deal with the EU. So we leave on WTO terms.
Even if the Remainers manage to stick a SM/CU amendment on something, the Government can simply ignore it. The HoC cannot direct the Executive on how to negotiate. If they don't like what the Executive are doing, they simply have the option to remove the Executive and put another in place - which is not possible as no other party has the numbers.
The big issue, as I said below, is that May does not have the numbers to pass Soft Brexit unless Labour supports her - and why should they?
If May backs staying in the Single Market and that is her deal then yes the choice becomes that or WTO. The Commons can vote against WTO by backing her deal, no need for an amendment or anything else.
Enough Labour MPs would back a soft Brexit if it became an option because that is what they want.
Labour will not support the Govt in the withdrawal bill vote. They have already said this. Corbyn is just using Brexit to embarrass the Government. Corbyn is not stupid enough to back EEA having ruled it out. It is not his problem and there is no reason at all why Labour would gain anything tactically from voting with the Government. Even if some Labour rebels support May, there will be other Labour MPs who will vote against it and there are so many Tory MPs likely to vote it down I can't see her getting the numbers.
The only deal May can sell to her party is CETA - the Leavers will be happy and the Remainers will swallow it. Too bad May has Olly Robbins hand up her arse or she might have realised this long ago.
Corbyn will vote against the Brexit deal yes, especially since he wants a harder Brexit, but that doesn't mean all Labour MPs will. If May backs a soft Brexit then Chuka Umunma is not going to back a WTO Brexit over that.
Lets not forget Labour is still the party where almost 100% of MPs backed Remain and 80% of MPs voted No Confidence in Corbyn. They're not going to just blindly vote for a WTO Brexit just to spite May.
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
Which is not the same thing as voting by a 200 vote majority FOR a specific amendment to leave the Single Market.
They voted against tying the government's hands, they left it as a decision not yet made.
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
That's what I said. Voting against an amendment to tie the government's hands just means they don't want to be blamed when the government doesn't come back with a unicorn deal.
Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and when they expected a comfortable Remain win is completely different from the position now when Leave won and the vast majority of Tory seats and Tory voters voted Leave in large part to end FOM.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
UKIP is deceased.
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.
NOPE, EEA means full FOM and guaranteed Brexit betrayal narrative and would revive UKIP quicker than Lazarus likely with Farage at the helm. Tory MPs do not vote for Christmas or to see mass defections of their Leave voting Tory voters and members to UKIP in their mainly Leave Tory seats so they will vote to end FOM and leave the EEA as they already did in the vote last month
UKIP are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.
I have never voted UKIP in my life, full Brexit has extinguished their fire, fake Brexit BINO will reignite it fiercer than ever before
No it won't, too much water is under the bridge, they're too busted already and Farage etc have moved on already.
People in general are so sick of all this that all but the most extreme just want us to bloody well get on with whatever we're going to do and move on.
The only reason Leave won over 50% was because of working class Leave seats voting for Brexit to end FOM and reduce immigration, betray that and you betray the Leave win
Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and when they expected a comfortable Remain win is completely different from the position now when Leave won and the vast majority of Tory seats and Tory voters voted Leave in large part to end FOM.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
UKIP is deceased.
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.
NOPE, EEA means full FOM and guaranteed Brexit betrayal narrative and would revive UKIP quicker than Lazarus likely with Farage at the helm. Tory MPs do not vote for Christmas or to see mass defections of their Leave voting Tory voters and members to UKIP in their mainly Leave Tory seats so they will vote to end FOM and leave the EEA as they already did in the vote last month
UKIP are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.
I have never voted UKIP in my life, full Brexit has extinguished their fire, fake Brexit BINO will reignite it fiercer than ever before
No it won't, too much water is under the bridge, they're too busted already and Farage etc have moved on already.
People in general are so sick of all this that all but the most extreme just want us to bloody well get on with whatever we're going to do and move on.
As a Remainer, you simply don't get why people voted Leave. There are many reasons, but being ruled and constantly humiliated by a foreign power was high on the list.
People are not interested right now, because May has been telling them that she will deliver what they voted for.
But if May is forced into a humiliating retreat, suddenly EVERY Leave voter is going to have a problem with it. Because being humiliated by foreigners is something that people in the UK will not stand, and they will sweep away any Government that is responsible for this.
Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and when they expected a comfortable Remain win is completely different from the position now when Leave won and the vast majority of Tory seats and Tory voters voted Leave in large part to end FOM.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
UKIP is deceased.
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.
NOPE, EEA means full FOM and guaranteed Brexit betrayal narrative and would revive UKIP quicker than Lazarus likely with Farage at the helm. Tory MPs do not vote for Christmas or to see mass defections of their Leave voting Tory voters and members to UKIP in their mainly Leave Tory seats so they will vote to end FOM and leave the EEA as they already did in the vote last month
UKIP are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.
I have never voted UKIP in my life, full Brexit has extinguished their fire, fake Brexit BINO will reignite it fiercer than ever before
No it won't, too much water is under the bridge, they're too busted already and Farage etc have moved on already.
People in general are so sick of all this that all but the most extreme just want us to bloody well get on with whatever we're going to do and move on.
As a Remainer, you simply don't get why people voted Leave. There are many reasons, but being ruled and constantly humiliated by a foreign power was high on the list.
People are not interested right now, because May has been telling them that she will deliver what they voted for.
But if May is forced into a humiliating retreat, suddenly EVERY Leave voter is going to have a problem with it. Because being humiliated by foreigners is something that people in the UK will not stand, and they will sweep away any Government that is responsible for this.
The EU is only a foreign power if we leave it. If voters want to avoid being humiliated by foreign powers, choosing to leave a nascent superpower on our doorstep is the stupidest thing imaginable.
Furthermore the idea things can't happen just because they're humiliating is not borne out by history.
As a Remainer, you simply don't get why people voted Leave. There are many reasons, but being ruled and constantly humiliated by a foreign power was high on the list.
People are not interested right now, because May has been telling them that she will deliver what they voted for.
But if May is forced into a humiliating retreat, suddenly EVERY Leave voter is going to have a problem with it. Because being humiliated by foreigners is something that people in the UK will not stand, and they will sweep away any Government that is responsible for this.
'As a Remainer'? I voted Leave and said so here at the time. I've said the government should tell the EU we will walk away and prepare for a WTO Brexit. But the government won't and neither will the Commons. HYUFD is counting chickens that haven't hatched, I'm realistic that May has done zero preparations for a WTO Brexit and shown zero backbone throughout these negotiations.
This was my post in the last thread backing WTO preparations:
Blame David Davis, he's the idiot that signed up to this sequencing of talks.
Which was all fine until Barnier changed the December agreement to say that the UK had agreed to the EU annexing Northern Ireland.
As soon as he did that the UK government should have said that a line was crossed and we were now looking at WTO in earnest until the EU is willing to talk trade.
My suggestion now is that the government announces it’s spending £1bn a week on no-deal preparations, to be taken from the £39bn, until a deal is agreed.
Reasonable. £39bn in 9 months can pay for a lot of no deal preparations.
We should also say that without a deal we will slash our corporation tax rates well below those in Ireland in case anyone like Google wants to relocate to the UK.
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
Which is not the same thing as voting by a 200 vote majority FOR a specific amendment to leave the Single Market.
They voted against tying the government's hands, they left it as a decision not yet made.
Nope there were TWO distinct amendments on this, one on not tying the government's hands which the government narrowly won with Corbyn opposing and another on leaving the single market the government won by a huge 200 vote majority with Corbyn neutral and not opposing the government and a number of Labour MPs from Leave seats voting with the government to leave the EEA
Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and when they expected a comfortable Remain win is completely different from the position now when Leave won and the vast majority of Tory seats and Tory voters voted Leave in large part to end FOM.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
UKIP is deceased.
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.
NOPE, EEA means full FOM and guaranteed Brexit betrayal narrative and would revive UKIP quicker than Lazarus likely with Farage at the helm. Tory MPs do not vote for Christmas or to see mass defections of their Leave voting Tory voters and members to UKIP in their mainly Leave Tory seats so they will vote to end FOM and leave the EEA as they already did in the vote last month
UKIP are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.
I have never voted UKIP in my life, full Brexit has extinguished their fire, fake Brexit BINO will reignite it fiercer than ever before
No it won't, too much water is under the bridge, they're too busted already and Farage etc have moved on already.
People in general are so sick of all this that all but the most extreme just want us to bloody well get on with whatever we're going to do and move on.
The only reason Leave won over 50% was because of working class Leave seats voting for Brexit to end FOM and reduce immigration, betray that and you betray the Leave win
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
Which is not the same thing as voting by a 200 vote majority FOR a specific amendment to leave the Single Market.
They voted against tying the government's hands, they left it as a decision not yet made.
Nope there were TWO distinct amendments on this, one on not tying the government's hands which the government narrowly won with Corbyn opposing and another on leaving the single market the government won by a huge 200 vote majority with Corbyn neutral and not opposing the government and a number of Labour MPs from Leave seats voting with the government to leave the EEA
It was not a vote on leaving the Single Market, it was a vote on staying in the Single Market. That's 2 different things.
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
That's what I said. Voting against an amendment to tie the government's hands just means they don't want to be blamed when the government doesn't come back with a unicorn deal.
NOPE that is NOT what you said as there were TWO DISTINCT votes and the govt won the vote to leave the single market by a LANDSLIDE unlike the vote not to the the government's hands
Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and when they expected a comfortable Remain win is completely different from the position now when Leave won and the vast majority of Tory seats and Tory voters voted Leave in large part to end FOM.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
UKIP is deceased.
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.
NOPE, EEA means full FOM and guaranteed Brexit betrayal narrative and would revive UKIP quicker than Lazarus likely with Farage at the helm. Tory MPs do not vote for Christmas or to see mass defections of their Leave voting Tory voters and members to UKIP in their mainly Leave Tory seats so they will vote to end FOM and leave the EEA as they already did in the vote last month
UKIP are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.
I have never voted UKIP in my life, full Brexit has extinguished their fire, fake Brexit BINO will reignite it fiercer than ever before
No it won't, too much water is under the bridge, they're too busted already and Farage etc have moved on already.
People in general are so sick of all this that all but the most extreme just want us to bloody well get on with whatever we're going to do and move on.
The only reason Leave won over 50% was because of working class Leave seats voting for Brexit to end FOM and reduce immigration, betray that and you betray the Leave win
May is going to betray the Leave win.
No May would be toppled first and she knows it
Only if originally Remain-backing Tory MPs decide EEA isn't enough even though the EU's ruled out a bespoke deal.
Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and when they expected a comfortable Remain win is completely different from the position now when Leave won and the vast majority of Tory seats and Tory voters voted Leave in large part to end FOM.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
UKIP is deceased.
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.
NOPE, EEA means full FOM and guaranteed Brexit betrayal narrative and would revive UKIP quicker than Lazarus likely with Farage at the helm. Tory MPs do not vote for Christmas or to see mass defections of their Leave voting Tory voters and members to UKIP in their mainly Leave Tory seats so they will vote to end FOM and leave the EEA as they already did in the vote last month
UKIP are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.
I have never voted UKIP in my life, full Brexit has extinguished their fire, fake Brexit BINO will reignite it fiercer than ever before
No it won't, too much water is under the bridge, they're too busted already and Farage etc have moved on already.
People in general are so sick of all this that all but the most extreme just want us to bloody well get on with whatever we're going to do and move on.
The only reason Leave won over 50% was because of working class Leave seats voting for Brexit to end FOM and reduce immigration, betray that and you betray the Leave win
May is going to betray the Leave win.
No May would be toppled first and she knows it
Only if originally Remain-backing Tory MPs decide EEA isn't enough even though the EU's ruled out a bespoke deal.
The vast majority of Tory MPs have ALREADY voted to LEAVE the EEA as 77% of TORY seats voted LEAVE.
A basic Canada style FTA is also NOT a bespoke deal
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
Which is not the same thing as voting by a 200 vote majority FOR a specific amendment to leave the Single Market.
They voted against tying the government's hands, they left it as a decision not yet made.
Nope there were TWO distinct amendments on this, one on not tying the government's hands which the government narrowly won with Corbyn opposing and another on leaving the single market the government won by a huge 200 vote majority with Corbyn neutral and not opposing the government and a number of Labour MPs from Leave seats voting with the government to leave the EEA
It was not a vote on leaving the Single Market, it was a vote on staying in the Single Market. That's 2 different things.
No it is the same thing as you cannot not stay in the single market and not be leaving the single market
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
Which is not the same thing as voting by a 200 vote majority FOR a specific amendment to leave the Single Market.
They voted against tying the government's hands, they left it as a decision not yet made.
Nope there were TWO distinct amendments on this, one on not tying the government's hands which the government narrowly won with Corbyn opposing and another on leaving the single market the government won by a huge 200 vote majority with Corbyn neutral and not opposing the government and a number of Labour MPs from Leave seats voting with the government to leave the EEA
It was not a vote on leaving the Single Market, it was a vote on staying in the Single Market. That's 2 different things.
No it is the same thing as you cannot not stay in the single market and not be leaving the single market
No it is not the same thing. You can be against saying at this point of the negotiations that you are remaining in the Single Market without ruling out staying in it if the circumstances are right.
Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and when they expected a comfortable Remain win is completely different from the position now when Leave won and the vast majority of Tory seats and Tory voters voted Leave in large part to end FOM.
Less than a third of Tory seats backed Remain, the remaining over two thirds will not be Turkeys voting for UKIP Christmas and back leaving FOM unchecked and staying in the single market or risk their deselection by their Leave voting Tory Associations which would be the inevitable result
UKIP is deceased.
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.
NOPE, EEA means full FOM and guaranteed Brexit betrayal narrative and would revive UKIP quicker than Lazarus likely with Farage at the helm. Tory MPs do not vote for Christmas or to see mass defections of their Leave voting Tory voters and members to UKIP in their mainly Leave Tory seats so they will vote to end FOM and leave the EEA as they already did in the vote last month
UKIP are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.
I have never voted UKIP in my life, full Brexit has extinguished their fire, fake Brexit BINO will reignite it fiercer than ever before
No it won't, too much water is under the bridge, they're too busted already and Farage etc have moved on already.
People in general are so sick of all this that all but the most extreme just want us to bloody well get on with whatever we're going to do and move on.
The only reason Leave won over 50% was because of working class Leave seats voting for Brexit to end FOM and reduce immigration, betray that and you betray the Leave win
May is going to betray the Leave win.
No May would be toppled first and she knows it
Only if originally Remain-backing Tory MPs decide EEA isn't enough even though the EU's ruled out a bespoke deal.
The vast majority of Tory MPs have ALREADY voted to LEAVE the EEA as 77% of TORY seats voted LEAVE.
A basic Canada style FTA is also NOT a bespoke deal
There's been no vote to leave the EEA, there's been a vote against staying while negotiations are still ongoing. Once negotiations end MPs will look at the deal and re-evaluate.
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
That's what I said. Voting against an amendment to tie the government's hands just means they don't want to be blamed when the government doesn't come back with a unicorn deal.
NOPE that is NOT what you said as there were TWO DISTINCT votes and the govt won the vote to leave the single market by a LANDSLIDE unlike the vote not to the the government's hands
If you're talking about the Lord Alli amendment you are misrepresenting it. It was to make staying in the EEA a negotiating objective. Just because that amendment wasn't passed, it doesn't stop the government making it a negotiating objective anyway.
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
That's what I said. Voting against an amendment to tie the government's hands just means they don't want to be blamed when the government doesn't come back with a unicorn deal.
NOPE that is NOT what you said as there were TWO DISTINCT votes and the govt won the vote to leave the single market by a LANDSLIDE unlike the vote not to the the government's hands
If you're talking about the Lord Alli amendment you are misrepresenting it. It was to make staying in the EEA a negotiating objective. Just because that amendment wasn't passed, it doesn't stop the government making it a negotiating objective anyway.
OT. OGH has called this wrong. This is why. truth and moral high ground for the battle is Mogg is right, she did make promises to them, lifted her skirt and showed them her red garters, and led them in good faith up the garden path...
“So Prime Minister, at what point did you realise your own red lines weren’t worth the crib sheet they were written on?”
She no longer has credibility or authority if she makes such a massive U turn, far deeper and broader than the Dementia Tax u turn.
When the Brexiteer PM is installed, probably Gove and sometime soon now, the first thing they will do is say “we are where we are, let’s take a pragmatic approach sorting this mess out” and instantly everything will just calm down, and move much more smoothly towards the FTA deal and exit, though with new Brexiteer PM and CoEx building a new broad consensus the situation can only be tidily salvaged by going at it a little less hastily, which EU will except, this is the consensus May no longer has the credibility or authority to either build or lead.
May’s premiership is no more. Her red lines that kept her dangling in there have ceased to be. She is an Ex PM. What makes it all so certain is May, Hammond, others who voted remain and about to leave government together, no longer care about being in the jobs, any briefing to the contrary is just lame attempt to play the game. Like Emperor Claudius accepts its time for him to go, with knowledge the madness of Nero will take over, but the hope the unpalatable madness and excesses of Nero will hasten return of the good old days, this is what they are hoping for. It’s all remainers have left.
'As a Remainer'? I voted Leave and said so here at the time. I've said the government should tell the EU we will walk away and prepare for a WTO Brexit. But the government won't and neither will the Commons. HYUFD is counting chickens that haven't hatched, I'm realistic that May has done zero preparations for a WTO Brexit and shown zero backbone throughout these negotiations.
This was my post in the last thread backing WTO preparations:
Blame David Davis, he's the idiot that signed up to this sequencing of talks.
Which was all fine until Barnier changed the December agreement to say that the UK had agreed to the EU annexing Northern Ireland.
As soon as he did that the UK government should have said that a line was crossed and we were now looking at WTO in earnest until the EU is willing to talk trade.
My suggestion now is that the government announces it’s spending £1bn a week on no-deal preparations, to be taken from the £39bn, until a deal is agreed.
Reasonable. £39bn in 9 months can pay for a lot of no deal preparations.
We should also say that without a deal we will slash our corporation tax rates well below those in Ireland in case anyone like Google wants to relocate to the UK.
Sorry, my apologies, you are quite right. Getting carried away with the debate! Your previous statements were quite correct in pointing out the way in which the Govt should have approached this. I should have gone back and checked.
I don't think that zero preparations have been done for WTO but clearly May and Robbins have no desire to stand up to Brussels. However, by moving to unilateral free trade for a limited period a WTO exit is perfectly possible.
I just don't think May has the ability to get Soft Brexit through the HoC. Much depends on whether the Leavers in the cabinet finally resign. In my view Gove is shaping up as the chief traitor here as he seems to be peddling the nonsense that we can leave now and change the deal later. If there are major resignations, then May is toast, regardless of the 'numbers' in a no-confidence vote. You can't seriously execute Brexit if all the Leavers resign in protest. She could just about hold the party around CETA, but this would require May to tell the EU that she will not and never will agree a backstop.
But I don't have any confidence in any Tory cabinet ministers to stand up for their principles.
UKIP are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.
I have never voted UKIP in my life, full Brexit has extinguished their fire, fake Brexit BINO will reignite it fiercer than ever before
No it won't, too much water is under the bridge, they're too busted already and Farage etc have moved on already.
People in general are so sick of all this that all but the most extreme just want us to bloody well get on with whatever we're going to do and move on.
The only reason Leave won over 50% was because of working class Leave seats voting for Brexit to end FOM and reduce immigration, betray that and you betray the Leave win
May is going to betray the Leave win.
No May would be toppled first and she knows it
Only if originally Remain-backing Tory MPs decide EEA isn't enough even though the EU's ruled out a bespoke deal.
The vast majority of Tory MPs have ALREADY voted to LEAVE the EEA as 77% of TORY seats voted LEAVE.
A basic Canada style FTA is also NOT a bespoke deal
There is nothing basic about CETA. It is a fully fledged FTA that gives the UK almost everything it needs. All that is needed is agreement on 100% removal of tariffs and quotas (that should be easy) and an add-on for services, without which the UK should refuse to sign it.
Frictionless trade will not be possible after Brexit, although very low friction trade will be perfectly possible outside the SM as the Telegraph explained today - it is a practical matter of improving customs procedures, it does not require any other sort of agreement other than CETA.
It is the EU's position on NI that has made CETA disappear as an option, exactly as Barnier and Robbins planned.
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
That's what I said. Voting against an amendment to tie the government's hands just means they don't want to be blamed when the government doesn't come back with a unicorn deal.
NOPE that is NOT what you said as there were TWO DISTINCT votes and the govt won the vote to leave the single market by a LANDSLIDE unlike the vote not to the the government's hands
If you're talking about the Lord Alli amendment you are misrepresenting it. It was to make staying in the EEA a negotiating objective. Just because that amendment wasn't passed, it doesn't stop the government making it a negotiating objective anyway.
Yes it can as Parliament is sovereign and ultimately has to pass whatever May agrees and May herself has made absolutely clear we will be leaving the EEA and ending free movement on every occasion as she knows she would be toppled as Tory leader and PM within 5 minutes if staying in the single market and keeping FOM was ever on the cards.
The fact the leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn is also opposed to staying in the single market just reinforces the point even further
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
Which is not the same thing as voting by a 200 vote majority FOR a specific amendment to leave the Single Market.
They voted against tying the government's hands, they left it as a decision not yet made.
Nope there were TWO distinct amendments on this, one on not tying the government's hands which the government narrowly won with Corbyn opposing and another on leaving the single market the government won by a huge 200 vote majority with Corbyn neutral and not opposing the government and a number of Labour MPs from Leave seats voting with the government to leave the EEA
It was not a vote on leaving the Single Market, it was a vote on staying in the Single Market. That's 2 different things.
No it is the same thing as you cannot not stay in the single market and not be leaving the single market
No it is not the same thing. You can be against saying at this point of the negotiations that you are remaining in the Single Market without ruling out staying in it if the circumstances are right.
May has ruled out staying in the single market at ANY stage of the negotiations
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
Which is not the same thing as voting by a 200 vote majority FOR a specific amendment to leave the Single Market.
They voted against tying the government's hands, they left it as a decision not yet made.
Nope there were TWO distinct amendments on this, one on not tying the government's hands which the government narrowly won with Corbyn opposing and another on leaving the single market the government won by a huge 200 vote majority with Corbyn neutral and not opposing the government and a number of Labour MPs from Leave seats voting with the government to leave the EEA
It was not a vote on leaving the Single Market, it was a vote on staying in the Single Market. That's 2 different things.
No it is the same thing as you cannot not stay in the single market and not be leaving the single market
No it is not the same thing. You can be against saying at this point of the negotiations that you are remaining in the Single Market without ruling out staying in it if the circumstances are right.
May has ruled out staying in the single market at ANY stage of the negotiations
Do you honestly believe that everything that comes out of May's mouth is gospel?
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
Which is not the same thing as voting by a 200 vote majority FOR a specific amendment to leave the Single Market.
They voted against tying the government's hands, they left it as a decision not yet made.
Nope there were TWO distinct amendments on this, one on not tying the government's hands which the government narrowly won with Corbyn opposing and another on leaving the single market the government won by a huge 200 vote majority with Corbyn neutral and not opposing the government and a number of Labour MPs from Leave seats voting with the government to leave the EEA
It was not a vote on leaving the Single Market, it was a vote on staying in the Single Market. That's 2 different things.
No it is the same thing as you cannot not stay in the single market and not be leaving the single market
No it is not the same thing. You can be against saying at this point of the negotiations that you are remaining in the Single Market without ruling out staying in it if the circumstances are right.
May has ruled out staying in the single market at ANY stage of the negotiations
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
Which is not the same thing as voting by a 200 vote majority FOR a specific amendment to leave the Single Market.
They voted against tying the government's hands, they left it as a decision not yet made.
Nope there were TWO distinct amendments on this, one on not tying the government's hands which the government narrowly won with Corbyn opposing and another on leaving the single market the government won by a huge 200 vote majority with Corbyn neutral and not opposing the government and a number of Labour MPs from Leave seats voting with the government to leave the EEA
It was not a vote on leaving the Single Market, it was a vote on staying in the Single Market. That's 2 different things.
No it is the same thing as you cannot not stay in the single market and not be leaving the single market
No it is not the same thing. You can be against saying at this point of the negotiations that you are remaining in the Single Market without ruling out staying in it if the circumstances are right.
May has ruled out staying in the single market at ANY stage of the negotiations
Yes, but the bit you seem to be missing is that she is a gutless liar who will say anything to anyone to get an extra day in power.
The deal will end up being an association agreement that imposes all the obligations of the SM and CU but calls them something else. So she will say we have left the SM. And the Tories will 'fall' for it.
Completely Wrong. Backing Remain BEFORE the EU referendum when most Tory MPs backed the Tory Leader and PM Cameron's pro Remain position and Associations which would be the inevitable result
UKIP is deceased.
EEA is a form of Leave and it can easily be sold as that if MPs choose to swing that way.
NOPE, EEA means full FOM and guaranteed embers to UKIP in their mainly Leave Tory seats so they will vote to end FOM and leave the EEA as they already did in the vote last month
UKIP are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.
I have never voted UKIP in my life, full Brexit has extinguished their fire, fake Brexit BINO will reignite it fiercer than ever before
No it won't, too much water is under do and move on.
The only reason Leave won over 50% was because of working class Leave seats voting for Brexit to end FOM and reduce immigration, betray that and you betray the Leave win
May is going to betray the Leave win.
No May would be toppled first and she knows it
Only if originally Remain-backing Tory MPs decide EEA isn't enough even though the EU's ruled out a bespoke deal.
The vast majority of Tory MPs have ALREADY voted to LEAVE the EEA as 77% of TORY seats voted LEAVE.
A basic Canada style FTA is also NOT a bespoke deal
There's been no vote to leave the EEA, there's been a vote against staying while negotiations are still ongoing. Once negotiations end MPs will look at the deal and re-evaluate.
The amendment was to stay in the EEA and there will be ZERO change in any future vote either as Labour MPs representing Remain seats ALREADY voted to support the amendment to stay in the EEA and Labour MPs like Flint voted to Leave the EEA and will vote so FOREVER if necessary as they know a vote to stay in the single market is POLITICAL SUICIDE in their LEAVE voting seats.
Corbyn REFUSED to vote for the EEA as he is IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED to staying in the single market and most TORY MPs voted to LEAVE the EEA as it would also be POLITICAL SUICIDE for them to vote to stay in the single market with full free movement as the VAST MAJORITY of Tory seats voted LEAVE.
That is my final word on the matter tonight as I am not spending all night repeating the same points verbatim. Goodnight
UKIP are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.
I have never voted UKIP in my life, full Brexit has extinguished their fire, fake Brexit BINO will reignite it fiercer than ever before
No it won't, too much water is under the bridge, they're too busted already and Farage etc have moved on already.
People in general are so sick of all this that all but the most extreme just want us to bloody well get on with whatever we're going to do and move on.
The only reason Leave won over 50% was because of working class Leave seats voting for Brexit to end FOM and reduce immigration, betray that and you betray the Leave win
May is going to betray the Leave win.
No May would be toppled first and she knows it
Only if originally Remain-backing Tory MPs decide EEA isn't enough even though the EU's ruled out a bespoke deal.
The vast majority of Tory MPs have ALREADY voted to LEAVE the EEA as 77% of TORY seats voted LEAVE.
A basic Canada style FTA is also NOT a bespoke deal
There is nothing basic about CETA. It is a fully fledged FTA that gives the UK almost everything it needs. All that is needed is agreement on 100% removal of tariffs and quotas (that should be easy) and an add-on for services, without which the UK should refuse to sign it.
Frictionless trade will not be possible after Brexit, although very low friction trade will be perfectly possible outside the SM as the Telegraph explained today - it is a practical matter of improving customs procedures, it does not require any other sort of agreement other than CETA.
It is the EU's position on NI that has made CETA disappear as an option, exactly as Barnier and Robbins planned.
"All that is needed is agreement on 100% removal of tariffs and quotas (that should be easy) and an add-on for services, without which the UK should refuse to sign it."
Basically, the UK will not sign unless it are allowed to cherry pick. You can go on whistling ....
No Parliament voted to leave the single market, not to leave the single market but only if we get a perfect bespoke Canada+ deal with cream and cherries on top. Labour MPs like Flint will never vote to leave FOM in place as they know it would be political suicide in their heavy Leave voting seats
Parliament voted against tying the government's hands. That is absolutely not the same as saying it voted to leave the single market.
No the Commons also voted by a 200 vote majority against a specific amendment to stay in the single market
Which is not the same thing as voting by a 200 vote majority FOR a specific amendment to leave the Single Market.
They voted against tying the government's hands, they left it as a decision not yet made.
Nope there were TWO distinct amendments on this, one on not tying the government's hands which the government narrowly won with Corbyn opposing and another on leaving the single market the government won by a huge 200 vote majority with Corbyn neutral and not opposing the government and a number of Labour MPs from Leave seats voting with the government to leave the EEA
It was not a vote on leaving the Single Market, it was a vote on staying in the Single Market. That's 2 different things.
No it is the same thing as you cannot not stay in the single market and not be leaving the single market
No it is not the same thing. You can be against saying at this point of the negotiations that you are remaining in the Single Market without ruling out staying in it if the circumstances are right.
May has ruled out staying in the single market at ANY stage of the negotiations
So ? She cannot be trusted on anything she says. General election ?
The amendment was to stay in the EEA and there will be ZERO change in any future vote either as Labour MPs representing Remain seats ALREADY voted to support the amendment to stay in the EEA and Labour MPs like Flint voted to Leave the EEA and will vote so FOREVER if necessary as they know a vote to stay in the single market is POLITICAL SUICIDE in their LEAVE voting seats.
Corbyn REFUSED to vote for the EEA as he is IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED to staying in the single market and most TORY MPs voted to LEAVE the EEA as it would also be POLITICAL SUICIDE for them to vote to stay in the single market with full free movement as the VAST MAJORITY of Tory seats voted LEAVE.
That is my final word on the matter tonight as I am not spending all night repeating the same points verbatim. Goodnight
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.
The amendment was to stay in the EEA and there will be ZERO change in any future vote either as Labour MPs representing Remain seats ALREADY voted to support the amendment to stay in the EEA and Labour MPs like Flint voted to Leave the EEA and will vote so FOREVER if necessary as they know a vote to stay in the single market is POLITICAL SUICIDE in their LEAVE voting seats.
Corbyn REFUSED to vote for the EEA as he is IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED to staying in the single market and most TORY MPs voted to LEAVE the EEA as it would also be POLITICAL SUICIDE for them to vote to stay in the single market with full free movement as the VAST MAJORITY of Tory seats voted LEAVE.
That is my final word on the matter tonight as I am not spending all night repeating the same points verbatim. Goodnight
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.
Good night.
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, they only failed to win many seats in 2015 despite 12% of the vote as Cameron promised an EU referendum, if the main promised change of that referendum failed to occur UKIP would revive rapidly. Which is of course precisely the reason Labour MPs in Leave seats and Tory MPs in Leave seats will never support a Brexit deal which leaves free movement unchecked and fully in place
The amendment was to stay in the EEA and there will be ZERO change in any future vote either as Labour MPs representing Remain seats ALREADY voted to support the amendment to stay in the EEA and Labour MPs like Flint voted to Leave the EEA and will vote so FOREVER if necessary as they know a vote to stay in the single market is POLITICAL SUICIDE in their LEAVE voting seats.
Corbyn REFUSED to vote for the EEA as he is IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED to staying in the single market and most TORY MPs voted to LEAVE the EEA as it would also be POLITICAL SUICIDE for them to vote to stay in the single market with full free movement as the VAST MAJORITY of Tory seats voted LEAVE.
That is my final word on the matter tonight as I am not spending all night repeating the same points verbatim. Goodnight
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.
Good night.
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, they only failed to win many seats in 2015 despite 12% of the vote as Cameron promised an EU referendum, if the main promised change of that referendum failed to occur UKIP would revive rapidly. Which is of course precisely the reason Labour MPs in Leave seats and Tory MPs in Leave seats will never support a Brexit deal which leaves free movement unchecked and fully in place
No they wouldn't, they lack the money, activists, leadership, momentum or major party status to compete. They couldn't win even a single seat from a sitting MP when they had all of that - and at a time that their MP was backing Remain.
The amendment was to stay in the EEA and there will be ZERO change in any future vote either as Labour MPs representing Remain seats ALREADY voted to support the amendment to stay in the EEA and Labour MPs like Flint voted to Leave the EEA and will vote so FOREVER if necessary as they know a vote to stay in the single market is POLITICAL SUICIDE in their LEAVE voting seats.
Corbyn REFUSED to vote for the EEA as he is IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED to staying in the single market and most TORY MPs voted to LEAVE the EEA as it would also be POLITICAL SUICIDE for them to vote to stay in the single market with full free movement as the VAST MAJORITY of Tory seats voted LEAVE.
That is my final word on the matter tonight as I am not spending all night repeating the same points verbatim. Goodnight
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.
Good night.
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, they only failed to win many seats in 2015 despite 12% of the vote as Cameron promised an EU referendum, if the main promised change of that referendum failed to occur UKIP would revive rapidly. Which is of course precisely the reason Labour MPs in Leave seats and Tory MPs in Leave seats will never support a Brexit deal which leaves free movement unchecked and fully in place
Some politicians have become fixated on EU free movement because it means they don't have to talk about all the other immigration which in many cases is what Leave voters were really protesting against.
Clegg rightly claims that on the eve of the referendum sensitivities were heightened by the Mediterranean crisis of 2015 and by concerns over terrorists posing as refugees. Yet at no point does he admit that similar concerns had been bubbling up over many years since the easing of controls on non-EU immigration after 1997. By 2016, 14 per cent of people living in the UK were born abroad. Only 3.5 million were from the EU, compared to 5.6 million from non-EU countries.
The amendment was to stay in the EEA and there will be ZERO change in any future vote either as Labour MPs representing Remain seats ALREADY voted to support the amendment to stay in the EEA and Labour MPs like Flint voted to Leave the EEA and will vote so FOREVER if necessary as they know a vote to stay in the single market is POLITICAL SUICIDE in their LEAVE voting seats.
Corbyn REFUSED to vote for the EEA as he is IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED to staying in the single market and most TORY MPs voted to LEAVE the EEA as it would also be POLITICAL SUICIDE for them to vote to stay in the single market with full free movement as the VAST MAJORITY of Tory seats voted LEAVE.
That is my final word on the matter tonight as I am not spending all night repeating the same points verbatim. Goodnight
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.
Good night.
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, they only failed to win many seats in 2015 despite 12% of the vote as Cameron promised an EU referendum, if the main promised change of that referendum failed to occur UKIP would revive rapidly. Which is of course precisely the reason Labour MPs in Leave seats and Tory MPs in Leave seats will never support a Brexit deal which leaves free movement unchecked and fully in place
UKIP even in its heyday couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery.
Only if originally Remain-backing Tory MPs decide EEA isn't enough even though the EU's ruled out a bespoke deal.
The vast majority of Tory MPs have ALREADY voted to LEAVE the EEA as 77% of TORY seats voted LEAVE.
A basic Canada style FTA is also NOT a bespoke deal
There is nothing basic about CETA. It is a fully fledged FTA that gives the UK almost everything it needs. All that is needed is agreement on 100% removal of tariffs and quotas (that should be easy) and an add-on for services, without which the UK should refuse to sign it.
Frictionless trade will not be possible after Brexit, although very low friction trade will be perfectly possible outside the SM as the Telegraph explained today - it is a practical matter of improving customs procedures, it does not require any other sort of agreement other than CETA.
It is the EU's position on NI that has made CETA disappear as an option, exactly as Barnier and Robbins planned.
"All that is needed is agreement on 100% removal of tariffs and quotas (that should be easy) and an add-on for services, without which the UK should refuse to sign it."
Basically, the UK will not sign unless it are allowed to cherry pick. You can go on whistling ....
Yeah, get the EU hand out of your arse. If you can't tell the difference between an FTA and the SM don't pretend. An FTA is not cherry picking the SM - they are totally different things. And there is no SM in services to cherry pick anyway.
CETA removes tariffs on 98% of goods but still has quotas. It would be in the EU's interests to increase this to 100% and quota free and I doubt this would be controversial. Services might be, but there is no economic benefit to the UK in a FTA covering goods and not services so we would be better to stick to WTO. UK trade policy going forward has to be to offer access to goods to the UK market in return for access to services in the partner's market. If the EU don't want to do this, they will be hit harder with tariffs.
The amendment was to stay in the EEA and there will be ZERO change in any future vote either as Labour MPs representing Remain seats ALREADY voted to support the amendment to stay in the EEA and Labour MPs like Flint voted to Leave the EEA and will vote so FOREVER if necessary as they know a vote to stay in the single market is POLITICAL SUICIDE in their LEAVE voting seats.
Corbyn REFUSED to vote for the EEA as he is IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED to staying in the single market and most TORY MPs voted to LEAVE the EEA as it would also be POLITICAL SUICIDE for them to vote to stay in the single market with full free movement as the VAST MAJORITY of Tory seats voted LEAVE.
That is my final word on the matter tonight as I am not spending all night repeating the same points verbatim. Goodnight
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.
Good night.
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, they only failed to win many seats in 2015 despite 12% of the vote as Cameron promised an EU referendum, if the main promised change of that referendum failed to occur UKIP would revive rapidly. Which is of course precisely the reason Labour MPs in Leave seats and Tory MPs in Leave seats will never support a Brexit deal which leaves free movement unchecked and fully in place
No they wouldn't, they lack the money, activists, leadership, momentum or major party status to compete. They couldn't win even a single seat from a sitting MP when they had all of that - and at a time that their MP was backing Remain.
UKIP Mk 2 don't need to win seats. They simply will destroy the Tory vote. Tories cannot win a majority if even 5% of their core vote goes to UKIP now that the LDs are not a factor.
The amendment was to stay in the EEA and there will be ZERO change in any future vote either as Labour MPs representing Remain seats ALREADY voted to support the amendment to stay in the EEA and Labour MPs like Flint voted to Leave the EEA and will vote so FOREVER if necessary as they know a vote to stay in the single market is POLITICAL SUICIDE in their LEAVE voting seats.
Corbyn REFUSED to vote for the EEA as he is IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED to staying in the single market and most TORY MPs voted to LEAVE the EEA as it would also be POLITICAL SUICIDE for them to vote to stay in the single market with full free movement as the VAST MAJORITY of Tory seats voted LEAVE.
That is my final word on the matter tonight as I am not spending all night repeating the same points verbatim. Goodnight
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.
Good night.
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, they only failed to win many seats in 2015 despite 12% of the vote as Cameron promised an EU referendum, if the main promised change of that referendum failed to occur UKIP would revive rapidly. Which is of course precisely the reason Labour MPs in Leave seats and Tory MPs in Leave seats will never support a Brexit deal which leaves free movement unchecked and fully in place
No they wouldn't, they lack the money, activists, leadership, momentum or major party status to compete. They couldn't win even a single seat from a sitting MP when they had all of that - and at a time that their MP was backing Remain.
UKIP Mk 2 don't need to win seats. They simply will destroy the Tory vote. Tories cannot win a majority if even 5% of their core vote goes to UKIP now that the LDs are not a factor.
UKIP Mk 2 would be an AfD style party and it's not at all obvious they would be successful in winning the kind of Tory voters who flirted with UKIP Mk1.
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.
Good night.
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, they only failed to win many seats in 2015 despite 12% of the vote as Cameron promised an EU referendum, if the main promised change of that referendum failed to occur UKIP would revive rapidly. Which is of course precisely the reason Labour MPs in Leave seats and Tory MPs in Leave seats will never support a Brexit deal which leaves free movement unchecked and fully in place
No they wouldn't, they lack the money, activists, leadership, momentum or major party status to compete. They couldn't win even a single seat from a sitting MP when they had all of that - and at a time that their MP was backing Remain.
UKIP Mk 2 don't need to win seats. They simply will destroy the Tory vote. Tories cannot win a majority if even 5% of their core vote goes to UKIP now that the LDs are not a factor.
UKIP Mk 2 would be an AfD style party and it's not at all obvious they would be successful in winning the kind of Tory voters who flirted with UKIP Mk1.
I would estimate that at least 25% of Tory voters feel very strongly about Brexit and would desert the Tories if they sell out. Probably a higher proportion of their activists. They may vote UKIP Mk 2, they may vote Labour out of spite (and I speak to a lot of people who say they would absolutely do this), they may stay at home. But the Tories will get wiped out by this level of support loss. It might have been OK when Labour were only polling at 30%, but not any more. I don't see a lot of Labour support moving away as they are not the people doing the sell out.
May is trying to lay a humiliation on the country on par with Suez, followed by a Corn-Laws style destruction of her own party. Quite a feat.
Couldn't we just become a province of Canada ...We could be the province of Oldpoundland?
I laughed. I really did.
"Because I have one of the greatest jobs in the solar system. As long as freedom of movement keeps flowing, I can do anything I want. Anything! In fact, the only thing I worry about is, one day, if the Leavers get their way, it all might end. And you're F***KING MAKING IT HAPPEN! First, you gave the Leavers their Referendum and then you let them win it!"
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.
Good night.
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, they only failed to win many seats in 2015 despite 12% of the vote as Cameron promised an EU referendum, if the main promised change of that referendum failed to occur UKIP would revive rapidly. Which is of course precisely the reason Labour MPs in Leave seats and Tory MPs in Leave seats will never support a Brexit deal which leaves free movement unchecked and fully in place
No they wouldn't, they lack the money, activists, leadership, momentum or major party status to compete. They couldn't win even a single seat from a sitting MP when they had all of that - and at a time that their MP was backing Remain.
UKIP Mk 2 don't need to win seats. They simply will destroy the Tory vote. Tories cannot win a majority if even 5% of their core vote goes to UKIP now that the LDs are not a factor.
UKIP Mk 2 would be an AfD style party and it's not at all obvious they would be successful in winning the kind of Tory voters who flirted with UKIP Mk1.
I would estimate that at least 25% of Tory voters feel very strongly about Brexit and would desert the Tories if they sell out. Probably a higher proportion of their activists. They may vote UKIP Mk 2, they may vote Labour out of spite (and I speak to a lot of people who say they would absolutely do this), they may stay at home. But the Tories will get wiped out by this level of support loss. It might have been OK when Labour were only polling at 30%, but not any more. I don't see a lot of Labour support moving away as they are not the people doing the sell out.
May is trying to lay a humiliation on the country on par with Suez, followed by a Corn-Laws style destruction of her own party. Quite a feat.
Tories will stick with their party virtually whatever happens. It is fantasy to think otherwise. Remember that UKIP never ever won a parliamentary seat except by the two defections in 2014 . They ALWAYS under-performed under FPTP.
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.
Good night.
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, they only failed to win many seats in 2015 despite 12% of the vote as Cameron promised an EU referendum, if the main promised change of that referendum failed to occur UKIP would revive rapidly. Which is of course precisely the reason Labour MPs in Leave seats and Tory MPs in Leave seats will never support a Brexit deal which leaves free movement unchecked and fully in place
No they wouldn't, they lack the money, activists, leadership, momentum or major party status to compete. They couldn't win even a single seat from a sitting MP when they had all of that - and at a time that their MP was backing Remain.
UKIP Mk 2 don't need to win seats. They simply will destroy the Tory vote. Tories cannot win a majority if even 5% of their core vote goes to UKIP now that the LDs are not a factor.
UKIP Mk 2 would be an AfD style party and it's not at all obvious they would be successful in winning the kind of Tory voters who flirted with UKIP Mk1.
I would estimate that at least 25% of Tory voters feel very strongly about Brexit and would desert the Tories if they sell out. Probably a higher proportion of their activists. They may vote UKIP Mk 2, they may vote Labour out of spite (and I speak to a lot of people who say they would absolutely do this), they may stay at home. But the Tories will get wiped out by this level of support loss. It might have been OK when Labour were only polling at 30%, but not any more. I don't see a lot of Labour support moving away as they are not the people doing the sell out.
May is trying to lay a humiliation on the country on par with Suez, followed by a Corn-Laws style destruction of her own party. Quite a feat.
What is your estimate based on apart from your own wishful thinking?
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.
Good night.
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, they only failed to win many seats in 2015 despite 12% of the vote as Cameron promised an EU referendum, if the main promised change of that referendum failed to occur UKIP would revive rapidly. Which is of course precisely the reason Labour MPs in Leave seats and Tory MPs in Leave seats will never support a Brexit deal which leaves free movement unchecked and fully in place
No they wouldn't, they lack the money, activists, leadership, momentum or major party status to compete. They couldn't win even a single seat from a sitting MP when they had all of that - and at a time that their MP was backing Remain.
UKIP Mk 2 don't need to win seats. They simply will destroy the Tory vote. Tories cannot win a majority if even 5% of their core vote goes to UKIP now that the LDs are not a factor.
UKIP Mk 2 would be an AfD style party and it's not at all obvious they would be successful in winning the kind of Tory voters who flirted with UKIP Mk1.
I would estimate that at least 25% of Tory voters feel very strongly about Brexit and would desert the Tories if they sell out. Probably a higher proportion of their activists. They may vote UKIP Mk 2, they may vote Labour out of spite (and I speak to a lot of people who say they would absolutely do this), they may stay at home. But the Tories will get wiped out by this level of support loss. It might have been OK when Labour were only polling at 30%, but not any more. I don't see a lot of Labour support moving away as they are not the people doing the sell out.
May is trying to lay a humiliation on the country on par with Suez, followed by a Corn-Laws style destruction of her own party. Quite a feat.
What is your estimate based on apart from your own wishful thinking?
Er - you and many of the rest of the Remainers on this site spent a year vilifying Theresa May when she promised Hard Brexit and kept telling us how she was doomed and wouldn't last to the end of the week.
Then, as soon as it becomes clear that she is going to sell out, she is suddenly in a position of strength and can't possibly be removed.
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.
Good night.
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, they only failed to win many seats in 2015 despite 12% of the vote as Cameron promised an EU referendum, if the main promised change of that referendum failed to occur UKIP would revive rapidly. Which is of course precisely the reason Labour MPs in Leave seats and Tory MPs in Leave seats will never support a Brexit deal which leaves free movement unchecked and fully in place
No they wouldn't, they lack the money, activists, leadership, momentum or major party status to compete. They couldn't win even a single seat from a sitting MP when they had all of that - and at a time that their MP was backing Remain.
UKIP Mk 2 don't need to win seats. They simply will destroy the Tory vote. Tories cannot win a majority if even 5% of their core vote goes to UKIP now that the LDs are not a factor.
UKIP Mk 2 would be an AfD style party and it's not at all obvious they would be successful in winning the kind of Tory voters who flirted with UKIP Mk1.
I would estimate that at least 25% of Tory voters feel very strongly about Brexit and would desert the Tories if they sell out. Probably a higher proportion of their activists. They may vote UKIP Mk 2, they may vote Labour out of spite (and I speak to a lot of people who say they would absolutely do this), they may stay at home. But the Tories will get wiped out by this level of support loss. It might have been OK when Labour were only polling at 30%, but not any more. I don't see a lot of Labour support moving away as they are not the people doing the sell out.
May is trying to lay a humiliation on the country on par with Suez, followed by a Corn-Laws style destruction of her own party. Quite a feat.
Tories will stick with their party virtually whatever happens. It is fantasy to think otherwise. Remember that UKIP never ever won a parliamentary seat except by the two defections in 2014 . They ALWAYS under-performed under FPTP.
I am not predicting that UKIP Mk 2 will win even a single seat. I am predicting that they will drain enough of the Tory vote to make it impossible for them to win a majority (in fact I think it will be a lot worse than that) although a good chunk of this will be down to people staying at home. Labour voters will not have the same desire to switch because it is not their leader selling out Brexit.
I see JC has finally wised up to the electoral goldmine of legalising cannabis. He's as thick as fuck but he gets there in the end.
Yup, and he’ll get the plaudits for being the first of the major party leaders to suggest it.
IEA report (not known for being fans of Corbyn!) the other day suggested the U.K. cannabis market would yield £1bn in tax if it were set up like the cigarrete market.
It’s clear the current drugs policy isn’t working, there’s drugs everywhere and the money is all flowing to the gangs. Drugs policy needs to be one way or the other, like Portugal and Amsterdam or like Bangkok and Dubai. Some wishy washy middle way is worse than useless, in fact it’s killing people.
I see JC has finally wised up to the electoral goldmine of legalising cannabis. He's as thick as fuck but he gets there in the end.
Yup, and he’ll get the plaudits for being the first of the major party leaders to suggest it.
IEA report (not known for being fans of Corbyn!) the other day suggested the U.K. cannabis market would yield £1bn in tax if it were set up like the cigarrete market.
It’s clear the current drugs policy isn’t working, there’s drugs everywhere and the money is all flowing to the gangs. Drugs policy needs to be one way or the other, like Portugal and Amsterdam or like Bangkok and Dubai. Some wishy washy middle way is worse than useless, in fact it’s killing people.
I can see Bangkok/Dubai appealing to about 10% of the electorate....
I see JC has finally wised up to the electoral goldmine of legalising cannabis. He's as thick as fuck but he gets there in the end.
Yup, and he’ll get the plaudits for being the first of the major party leaders to suggest it.
IEA report (not known for being fans of Corbyn!) the other day suggested the U.K. cannabis market would yield £1bn in tax if it were set up like the cigarrete market.
It’s clear the current drugs policy isn’t working, there’s drugs everywhere and the money is all flowing to the gangs. Drugs policy needs to be one way or the other, like Portugal and Amsterdam or like Bangkok and Dubai. Some wishy washy middle way is worse than useless, in fact it’s killing people.
I read an article a week or so ago which had cannabis growers complaining that supply had so exceeded demand that the price had gone through the floor and they were not recovering their costs. More worryingly, the price of cocaine had fallen about 20% too.
The measure of success in the war on drugs is the street price. If the police were intercepting enough to have any impact it would be rising. In fact the price has been falling for almost all drugs for a very long time. A politician brave enough to say that our current policies have simply failed would, I suspect, tap a lot of support.
Might have missed it or seen something else but I think he actually called for decriminalisation (for small amounts) which isn't really as good as legalisation and doesn't raise revenues for the government and leaves the profits in the black market.
Its Portugal rather than Amsterdam, which is still an improvement in most ways.
There's the position within the party and then the position of the party itself.
Keeping the UK in the customs union might please some businesses but it would be completely contrary to the spirit of the vote. And for those who might cite the letter of the vote, I'd point out that's the Brown line on not having a referendum on Lisbon. It doesn't wash.
A large part of the campaign was the ability to strike our own deals. Voting to leave the EU then having the PM try and keep us subject to the EU on trade, whereby we must do as the EU does and the EU need not take any account of our interest (or economic harm) when negotiating such matters) would not sit well with the electorate.
In a transition period of defined length, it would likely cause few problems. If such a period were, or became, indefinite, that's a different kettle of fish.
There's the position within the party and then the position of the party itself.
Keeping the UK in the customs union might please some businesses but it would be completely contrary to the spirit of the vote. And for those who might cite the letter of the vote, I'd point out that's the Brown line on not having a referendum on Lisbon. It doesn't wash.
A large part of the campaign was the ability to strike our own deals. Voting to leave the EU then having the PM try and keep us subject to the EU on trade, whereby we must do as the EU does and the EU need not take any account of our interest (or economic harm) when negotiating such matters) would not sit well with the electorate.
In a transition period of defined length, it would likely cause few problems. If such a period were, or became, indefinite, that's a different kettle of fish.
I wouldn’t cite the letter of the vote. I’d cite the fact that only one in six know what a customs union is.
The public voted for Brexit to keep out foreigners. You get that as the spirit of the vote. Anything else has to be argued for.
Boost for Jeremy Corbyn as his close friend the populist leftist Manuel Lopez Obrador wins yesterday's Mexican Presidential election with his conservative and centrist rivals already conceding
There's the position within the party and then the position of the party itself.
Keeping the UK in the customs union might please some businesses but it would be completely contrary to the spirit of the vote. And for those who might cite the letter of the vote, I'd point out that's the Brown line on not having a referendum on Lisbon. It doesn't wash.
A large part of the campaign was the ability to strike our own deals. Voting to leave the EU then having the PM try and keep us subject to the EU on trade, whereby we must do as the EU does and the EU need not take any account of our interest (or economic harm) when negotiating such matters) would not sit well with the electorate.
In a transition period of defined length, it would likely cause few problems. If such a period were, or became, indefinite, that's a different kettle of fish.
So in all these trade deals what do you suggest will be part of the dispute resolution system?
The public remember two things about Vote Leave’s campaign: the lie on the bus and keeping out foreigners. You’re confusing things you’re bothered about with things the public was bothered about.
Mr. Eagles, other nations are perfectly capable of negotiating such things as part of free trade agreements, I see no reason we can't do likewise.
Mr. Meeks, you're claiming to know the minds of those you continually disparage. Controlling migration was part of the campaign, not the whole campaign. Believing every one of the millions who voted Leave were xenophobic is as daft as believing every one of the millions who voted Remain want the UK to join the single currency.
I see JC has finally wised up to the electoral goldmine of legalising cannabis. He's as thick as fuck but he gets there in the end.
Yup, and he’ll get the plaudits for being the first of the major party leaders to suggest it.
IEA report (not known for being fans of Corbyn!) the other day suggested the U.K. cannabis market would yield £1bn in tax if it were set up like the cigarrete market.
It’s clear the current drugs policy isn’t working, there’s drugs everywhere and the money is all flowing to the gangs. Drugs policy needs to be one way or the other, like Portugal and Amsterdam or like Bangkok and Dubai. Some wishy washy middle way is worse than useless, in fact it’s killing people.
I read an article a week or so ago which had cannabis growers complaining that supply had so exceeded demand that the price had gone through the floor and they were not recovering their costs. More worryingly, the price of cocaine had fallen about 20% too.
The measure of success in the war on drugs is the street price. If the police were intercepting enough to have any impact it would be rising. In fact the price has been falling for almost all drugs for a very long time. A politician brave enough to say that our current policies have simply failed would, I suspect, tap a lot of support.
Agreed. There was a rather disturbing documentary on I think C5 a purple of months back, exploring cockiness use in the UK, which is now at epidemic levels. You make a good point about the price, black markets tend to work pretty well as economic markets, with quality and price working themselves out among regular users and dealers. This is especially true when there is good information around, which is increasingly the case with online sales rather than street deals dominating.
A falling price means that either demand is slowing or supply increasing, and in the UK the evidence is pretty clear that it’s the latter.
The choice for authorities is binary, either they take control of the market themselves, or start handing out meaningful prison sentences to everyone involved in the drugs trade.
Mr. Meeks, that's nonsense. You've decided the vote was about xenophobia and nothing else, and that is not the case.
Many times, striking our own trade deals was mentioned, and that requires leaving the customs union.
The chavs of Hartlepool don't give a fuck about trade deals. Such deals are a niche fetish for a certain brand of tory. As long as there is enough of a fudge on FoM so that the humble shitmunchers can be plausibly lied to about something being done that will do for May. UKIP2 (NUKIP?) arising from the ashes with a platform of "We've left the EU but can't do our own bilateral trade agreements with Togo" aren't going get very far.
Mr. Eagles, other nations are perfectly capable of negotiating such things as part of free trade agreements, I see no reason we can't do likewise.
Mr. Meeks, you're claiming to know the minds of those you continually disparage. Controlling migration was part of the campaign, not the whole campaign. Believing every one of the millions who voted Leave were xenophobic is as daft as believing every one of the millions who voted Remain want the UK to join the single currency.
Mr. Eagles, other nations are perfectly capable of negotiating such things as part of free trade agreements, I see no reason we can't do likewise.
Mr. Meeks, you're claiming to know the minds of those you continually disparage. Controlling migration was part of the campaign, not the whole campaign. Believing every one of the millions who voted Leave were xenophobic is as daft as believing every one of the millions who voted Remain want the UK to join the single currency.
So you have no idea.
There are a few options so it is important to get an idea of what you think.
It is crucial for the industry I work in, ‘cause we only export a bit.
The amendment was to stay in the EEA and there will be ZERO change in any future vote either as Labour MPs representing Remain seats ALREADY voted to support the amendment to stay in the EEA and Labour MPs like Flint voted to Leave the EEA and will vote so FOREVER if necessary as they know a vote to stay in the single market is POLITICAL SUICIDE in their LEAVE voting seats.
Corbyn REFUSED to vote for the EEA as he is IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED to staying in the single market and most TORY MPs voted to LEAVE the EEA as it would also be POLITICAL SUICIDE for them to vote to stay in the single market with full free movement as the VAST MAJORITY of Tory seats voted LEAVE.
That is my final word on the matter tonight as I am not spending all night repeating the same points verbatim. Goodnight
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.
Good night.
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, they only failed to win many seats in 2015 despite 12% of the vote as Cameron promised an EU referendum, if the main promised change of that referendum failed to occur UKIP would revive rapidly. Which is of course precisely the reason Labour MPs in Leave seats and Tory MPs in Leave seats will never support a Brexit deal which leaves free movement unchecked and fully in place
So how many seats would a New UKIP party win with 13% of the vote. Look at how many the Liberals/LibDems won with say 18% in previous elections. Maybe 20 on a good day - they could still be ignored, especially if Labour formed the Government. In any case, UKIP with their many former leaders are a joke it will be very difficult for them to resurface.
Mr. Eagles, other nations are perfectly capable of negotiating such things as part of free trade agreements, I see no reason we can't do likewise.
Mr. Meeks, you're claiming to know the minds of those you continually disparage. Controlling migration was part of the campaign, not the whole campaign. Believing every one of the millions who voted Leave were xenophobic is as daft as believing every one of the millions who voted Remain want the UK to join the single currency.
The public remember two things about Vote Leave’s campaign: the lie on the bus and keeping out foreigners. You’re confusing things you’re bothered about with things the public was bothered about.
I think that's charitable. Keeping out foreigners was so central to the campaign that to dignify fellow travellers with having higher motives reminds me of the book 'How Green Were The Nazis?'
The amendment was to stay in the EEA and there will be ZERO change in any future vote either as Labour MPs representing Remain seats ALREADY voted to support the amendment to stay in the EEA and Labour MPs like Flint voted to Leave the EEA and will vote so FOREVER if necessary as they know a vote to stay in the single market is POLITICAL SUICIDE in their LEAVE voting seats.
Corbyn REFUSED to vote for the EEA as he is IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED to staying in the single market and most TORY MPs voted to LEAVE the EEA as it would also be POLITICAL SUICIDE for them to vote to stay in the single market with full free movement as the VAST MAJORITY of Tory seats voted LEAVE.
That is my final word on the matter tonight as I am not spending all night repeating the same points verbatim. Goodnight
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.
Good night.
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, they only failed to win many seats in 2015 despite 12% of the vote as Cameron promised an EU referendum, if the main promised change of that referendum failed to occur UKIP would revive rapidly. Which is of course precisely the reason Labour MPs in Leave seats and Tory MPs in Leave seats will never support a Brexit deal which leaves free movement unchecked and fully in place
So how many seats would a New UKIP party win with 13% of the vote. Look at how many the Liberals/LibDems won with say 18% in previous elections. Maybe 20 on a good day - they could still be ignored, especially if Labour formed the Government. In any case, UKIP with their many former leaders are a joke it will be very difficult for them to resurface.
On current polling with the two main parties neck and neck their influence would be significant and they could win very strong Leave seats like Labour Rotherham and Don Valley and Stoke Central and Tory Thanet South, Boston and Skegness and Clacton and Thurrock etc if free movement stayed in place.
Though as I said earlier this is all hypothetical as both May and Corbyn are committee to leaving the single market
The direction of travel is towards a Norway style deal with a nod to immigration and more than likely TM will take on any challenge from the hard Brexiteers and win.
TM has many problems and has the most difficult job in politics at present, but she is determined and as Ken Clarke's said is a bloody difficult woman.
As far as the electorate are concernrd a collective sigh of relief with be palpable if she pulls of a softish Brexit and those hard Brexiteers and UKIP tory voters will be offset by many who would move back to the tories, mainly remainers who had left.
Also after a time it is more than likely we would rejoin depending on how the EU survives it's many problems
Mr. Meeks, that's not what the polling shows. The polling relates to what people remember, not what was said during the campaign. Recall, even of significant and recent events, can be rather poor.
Mr. Sandpit, hmm. Unsure about that (not betting either way). The new Mercedes engine looks powerful, but the reliability has suddenly declined. Unsure if that's a coincidence or not.
Had a quick look at Ladbrokes but only the win market is currently up. Seems like there's going to be a narrow window of actually having full markets up, which is rather displeasing.
Mr. Meeks, that's not what the polling shows. The polling relates to what people remember, not what was said during the campaign. Recall, even of significant and recent events, can be rather poor.
Mr. Sandpit, hmm. Unsure about that (not betting either way). The new Mercedes engine looks powerful, but the reliability has suddenly declined. Unsure if that's a coincidence or not.
Had a quick look at Ladbrokes but only the win market is currently up. Seems like there's going to be a narrow window of actually having full markets up, which is rather displeasing.
If, like me, you believe that the championship race is between Hamilton and Vettel, then the correct strategy should be to lay whoever just had the best race. Betfair currently have Lewis at 1.6 and Seb at 2.9 for the title.
Yes, the number of markets has been a little disappointing for the past couple of races. And so have my bets, but that’s a different point!
Mr. Meeks, that's not what the polling shows. The polling relates to what people remember, not what was said during the campaign. Recall, even of significant and recent events, can be rather poor.
Mr. Sandpit, hmm. Unsure about that (not betting either way). The new Mercedes engine looks powerful, but the reliability has suddenly declined. Unsure if that's a coincidence or not.
Had a quick look at Ladbrokes but only the win market is currently up. Seems like there's going to be a narrow window of actually having full markets up, which is rather displeasing.
So, to summarise, you believe that it was an integral part of the vote to Leave that Britain leaves the customs union even though only one in six understands what a customs union is and pretty well no one recalls it being discussed. You’ll have to forgive me for not even getting as far as being unconvinced.
Mr. Meeks, that's not what the polling shows. The polling relates to what people remember, not what was said during the campaign. Recall, even of significant and recent events, can be rather poor.
So what percentage of leavers do you think vote leave to do trade deals? (And have now forgotten about it.)
There's the position within the party and then the position of the party itself.
Keeping the UK in the customs union might please some businesses but it would be completely contrary to the spirit of the vote. And for those who might cite the letter of the vote, I'd point out that's the Brown line on not having a referendum on Lisbon. It doesn't wash.
A large part of the campaign was the ability to strike our own deals. Voting to leave the EU then having the PM try and keep us subject to the EU on trade, whereby we must do as the EU does and the EU need not take any account of our interest (or economic harm) when negotiating such matters) would not sit well with the electorate.
In a transition period of defined length, it would likely cause few problems. If such a period were, or became, indefinite, that's a different kettle of fish.
But we have much better bargaining position in a large block than as a single country. Common sense dictates that the customs union is the last thing we should be giving up. Though given that we are the junior party in the negotiations it is more a question of what we can get than what we want.
Mr. Meeks, that's not what the polling shows. The polling relates to what people remember, not what was said during the campaign. Recall, even of significant and recent events, can be rather poor.
So what percentage of leavers do you think vote leave to do trade deals? (And have now forgotten about it.)
In my opinion very few, the main driver was to control immigration and make our own laws
There's the position within the party and then the position of the party itself.
Keeping the UK in the customs union might please some businesses but it would be completely contrary to the spirit of the vote. And for those who might cite the letter of the vote, I'd point out that's the Brown line on not having a referendum on Lisbon. It doesn't wash.
A large part of the campaign was the ability to strike our own deals. Voting to leave the EU then having the PM try and keep us subject to the EU on trade, whereby we must do as the EU does and the EU need not take any account of our interest (or economic harm) when negotiating such matters) would not sit well with the electorate.
In a transition period of defined length, it would likely cause few problems. If such a period were, or became, indefinite, that's a different kettle of fish.
I doubt even 5% of Leave voters voted on the basis of making free trade deals. It’s utterly irrelevant to most, especially as it is now clear that any deals we do manage to sign will be inferior to what we get from being EU members. The voice of the businesses that employ thousands of UK workers will rightly count for more than a few free trade fantasists.
Mr. Meeks, that's not what the polling shows. The polling relates to what people remember, not what was said during the campaign. Recall, even of significant and recent events, can be rather poor.
So what percentage of leavers do you think vote leave to do trade deals? (And have now forgotten about it.)
In my opinion very few, the main driver was to control immigration and make our own laws
A fair answer. I have no problem with Tories behaving like Tories. They always have and they always will. My problem is with those who claim to be Labour.
It's not political suicide as there is no alternative. UKIP couldn't win seats from sitting MPs even before they imploded.
Good night.
If free movement was left in place despite the Leave vote UKIP would easily win Leave seats, they only failed to win many seats in 2015 despite 12% of the vote as Cameron promised an EU referendum, if the main promised change of that referendum failed to occur UKIP would revive rapidly. Which is of course precisely the reason Labour MPs in Leave seats and Tory MPs in Leave seats will never support a Brexit deal which leaves free movement unchecked and fully in place
No they wouldn't, they lack the money, activists, leadership, momentum or major party status to compete. They couldn't win even a single seat from a sitting MP when they had all of that - and at a time that their MP was backing Remain.
UKIP Mk 2 don't need to win seats. They simply will destroy the Tory vote. Tories cannot win a majority if even 5% of their core vote goes to UKIP now that the LDs are not a factor.
UKIP Mk 2 would be an AfD style party and it's not at all obvious they would be successful in winning the kind of Tory voters who flirted with UKIP Mk1.
I would estimate that at least 25% of Tory voters feel very strongly about Brexit and would desert the Tories if they sell out. Probably a higher proportion of their activists. They may vote UKIP Mk 2, they may vote Labour out of spite (and I speak to a lot of people who say they would absolutely do this), they may stay at home. But the Tories will get wiped out by this level of support loss. It might have been OK when Labour were only polling at 30%, but not any more. I don't see a lot of Labour support moving away as they are not the people doing the sell out.
May is trying to lay a humiliation on the country on par with Suez, followed by a Corn-Laws style destruction of her own party. Quite a feat.
Tories will stick with their party virtually whatever happens. It is fantasy to think otherwise. Remember that UKIP never ever won a parliamentary seat except by the two defections in 2014 . They ALWAYS under-performed under FPTP.
I for one would welcome the return of Lord Sir Professor Paul Nuttall KG OBE to the political scene.
Corbyn will vote against the Brexit deal yes, especially since he wants a harder Brexit, but that doesn't mean all Labour MPs will. If May backs a soft Brexit then Chuka Umunma is not going to back a WTO Brexit over that.
Lets not forget Labour is still the party where almost 100% of MPs backed Remain and 80% of MPs voted No Confidence in Corbyn. They're not going to just blindly vote for a WTO Brexit just to spite May.
Likewise the LibDems and the SNP. You could see them wanting something in return though. Like a second referendum, which May probably wants as well, if only she had the political cover...
Comments
The only deal May can sell to her party is CETA - the Leavers will be happy and the Remainers will swallow it. Too bad May has Olly Robbins hand up her arse or she might have realised this long ago.
People in general are so sick of all this that all but the most extreme just want us to bloody well get on with whatever we're going to do and move on.
Have you heard what Barnier has been saying in recent weeks!?
But HYUFD nobody is going to fall for saying that EU citizens don't have FOM just because they need a job offer. About five seconds later the country will be full of agencies that will come up with dodgy 'job offers' and once they are in they can do whatever they like. Work permits are one thing, you need to apply and be approved in advance. The EU will ever accept this in an EEA scenario.
Lets not forget Labour is still the party where almost 100% of MPs backed Remain and 80% of MPs voted No Confidence in Corbyn. They're not going to just blindly vote for a WTO Brexit just to spite May.
They voted against tying the government's hands, they left it as a decision not yet made.
People are not interested right now, because May has been telling them that she will deliver what they voted for.
But if May is forced into a humiliating retreat, suddenly EVERY Leave voter is going to have a problem with it. Because being humiliated by foreigners is something that people in the UK will not stand, and they will sweep away any Government that is responsible for this.
Furthermore the idea things can't happen just because they're humiliating is not borne out by history.
This was my post in the last thread backing WTO preparations:
A basic Canada style FTA is also NOT a bespoke deal
May can make whatever she wants her objective.
truth and moral high ground for the battle is Mogg is right, she did make promises to them, lifted her skirt and showed them her red garters, and led them in good faith up the garden path...
“So Prime Minister, at what point did you realise your own red lines weren’t worth the crib sheet they were written on?”
She no longer has credibility or authority if she makes such a massive U turn, far deeper and broader than the Dementia Tax u turn.
When the Brexiteer PM is installed, probably Gove and sometime soon now, the first thing they will do is say “we are where we are, let’s take a pragmatic approach sorting this mess out” and instantly everything will just calm down, and move much more smoothly towards the FTA deal and exit, though with new Brexiteer PM and CoEx building a new broad consensus the situation can only be tidily salvaged by going at it a little less hastily, which EU will except, this is the consensus May no longer has the credibility or authority to either build or lead.
May’s premiership is no more. Her red lines that kept her dangling in there have ceased to be. She is an Ex PM. What makes it all so certain is May, Hammond, others who voted remain and about to leave government together, no longer care about being in the jobs, any briefing to the contrary is just lame attempt to play the game. Like Emperor Claudius accepts its time for him to go, with knowledge the madness of Nero will take over, but the hope the unpalatable madness and excesses of Nero will hasten return of the good old days, this is what they are hoping for. It’s all remainers have left.
I don't think that zero preparations have been done for WTO but clearly May and Robbins have no desire to stand up to Brussels. However, by moving to unilateral free trade for a limited period a WTO exit is perfectly possible.
I just don't think May has the ability to get Soft Brexit through the HoC. Much depends on whether the Leavers in the cabinet finally resign. In my view Gove is shaping up as the chief traitor here as he seems to be peddling the nonsense that we can leave now and change the deal later. If there are major resignations, then May is toast, regardless of the 'numbers' in a no-confidence vote. You can't seriously execute Brexit if all the Leavers resign in protest. She could just about hold the party around CETA, but this would require May to tell the EU that she will not and never will agree a backstop.
But I don't have any confidence in any Tory cabinet ministers to stand up for their principles.
Frictionless trade will not be possible after Brexit, although very low friction trade will be perfectly possible outside the SM as the Telegraph explained today - it is a practical matter of improving customs procedures, it does not require any other sort of agreement other than CETA.
It is the EU's position on NI that has made CETA disappear as an option, exactly as Barnier and Robbins planned.
The fact the leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn is also opposed to staying in the single market just reinforces the point even further
The deal will end up being an association agreement that imposes all the obligations of the SM and CU but calls them something else. So she will say we have left the SM. And the Tories will 'fall' for it.
Corbyn REFUSED to vote for the EEA as he is IDEOLOGICALLY OPPOSED to staying in the single market and most TORY MPs voted to LEAVE the EEA as it would also be POLITICAL SUICIDE for them to vote to stay in the single market with full free movement as the VAST MAJORITY of Tory seats voted LEAVE.
That is my final word on the matter tonight as I am not spending all night repeating the same points verbatim. Goodnight
Basically, the UK will not sign unless it are allowed to cherry pick. You can go on whistling ....
Good night.
https://www.the-tls.co.uk/articles/public/brexit-politics-george-walden/
Clegg rightly claims that on the eve of the referendum sensitivities were heightened by the Mediterranean crisis of 2015 and by concerns over terrorists posing as refugees. Yet at no point does he admit that similar concerns had been bubbling up over many years since the easing of controls on non-EU immigration after 1997. By 2016, 14 per cent of people living in the UK were born abroad. Only 3.5 million were from the EU, compared to 5.6 million from non-EU countries.
It sounds about as easy to deliver as Brexit!
CETA removes tariffs on 98% of goods but still has quotas. It would be in the EU's interests to increase this to 100% and quota free and I doubt this would be controversial. Services might be, but there is no economic benefit to the UK in a FTA covering goods and not services so we would be better to stick to WTO. UK trade policy going forward has to be to offer access to goods to the UK market in return for access to services in the partner's market. If the EU don't want to do this, they will be hit harder with tariffs.
May is trying to lay a humiliation on the country on par with Suez, followed by a Corn-Laws style destruction of her own party. Quite a feat.
Then, as soon as it becomes clear that she is going to sell out, she is suddenly in a position of strength and can't possibly be removed.
Wishful thinking....?
IEA report (not known for being fans of Corbyn!) the other day suggested the U.K. cannabis market would yield £1bn in tax if it were set up like the cigarrete market.
It’s clear the current drugs policy isn’t working, there’s drugs everywhere and the money is all flowing to the gangs. Drugs policy needs to be one way or the other, like Portugal and Amsterdam or like Bangkok and Dubai. Some wishy washy middle way is worse than useless, in fact it’s killing people.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/01/graham-trump-justice-russia-689579
A case pops up challenging the constitutionality of Mueller’s appointment:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/28/roger-stone-aide-robert-mueller-subpoena-682318
Not disturbing at all...
The measure of success in the war on drugs is the street price. If the police were intercepting enough to have any impact it would be rising. In fact the price has been falling for almost all drugs for a very long time. A politician brave enough to say that our current policies have simply failed would, I suspect, tap a lot of support.
Its Portugal rather than Amsterdam, which is still an improvement in most ways.
There's the position within the party and then the position of the party itself.
Keeping the UK in the customs union might please some businesses but it would be completely contrary to the spirit of the vote. And for those who might cite the letter of the vote, I'd point out that's the Brown line on not having a referendum on Lisbon. It doesn't wash.
A large part of the campaign was the ability to strike our own deals. Voting to leave the EU then having the PM try and keep us subject to the EU on trade, whereby we must do as the EU does and the EU need not take any account of our interest (or economic harm) when negotiating such matters) would not sit well with the electorate.
In a transition period of defined length, it would likely cause few problems. If such a period were, or became, indefinite, that's a different kettle of fish.
The public voted for Brexit to keep out foreigners. You get that as the spirit of the vote. Anything else has to be argued for.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-latin-america-44677829
Trump has already congratulated Obrador via Twitter through gritted teeth
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1013618640061595648?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
Many times, striking our own trade deals was mentioned, and that requires leaving the customs union.
People who enjoy a more accurate representation of recent history may enjoy my post-race analysis of the excellent Austrian race, including a look at the significant changes to the standings:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/07/austria-post-race-analysis-2018.html
Mr. Meeks, you're claiming to know the minds of those you continually disparage. Controlling migration was part of the campaign, not the whole campaign. Believing every one of the millions who voted Leave were xenophobic is as daft as believing every one of the millions who voted Remain want the UK to join the single currency.
A falling price means that either demand is slowing or supply increasing, and in the UK the evidence is pretty clear that it’s the latter.
The choice for authorities is binary, either they take control of the market themselves, or start handing out meaningful prison sentences to everyone involved in the drugs trade.
https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/961908728801976320?s=21
There are a few options so it is important to get an idea of what you think.
It is crucial for the industry I work in, ‘cause we only export a bit.
In any case, UKIP with their many former leaders are a joke it will be very difficult for them to resurface.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/01/americas/mexico-election-president-intl/index.html
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/embedded?v=6.7.21.21.arm&hl=en-GB#vgi=4872978967180207992&ampcu=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F09e16222-7aef-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d&amp=https%3A%2F%2Famp.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F09e16222-7aef-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d&ampidx=0
His party is also on course for a majority in the Mexican Congress of the Union too
Though as I said earlier this is all hypothetical as both May and Corbyn are committee to leaving the single market
TM has many problems and has the most difficult job in politics at present, but she is determined and as Ken Clarke's said is a bloody difficult woman.
As far as the electorate are concernrd a collective sigh of relief with be palpable if she pulls of a softish Brexit and those hard Brexiteers and UKIP tory voters will be offset by many who would move back to the tories, mainly remainers who had left.
Also after a time it is more than likely we would rejoin depending on how the EU survives it's many problems
Mr. Sandpit, hmm. Unsure about that (not betting either way). The new Mercedes engine looks powerful, but the reliability has suddenly declined. Unsure if that's a coincidence or not.
Had a quick look at Ladbrokes but only the win market is currently up. Seems like there's going to be a narrow window of actually having full markets up, which is rather displeasing.
Yes, the number of markets has been a little disappointing for the past couple of races. And so have my bets, but that’s a different point!