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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    tpfkar said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    And if it does not prove to be the end game because May wins the vote, then that tweet will have been a load of bollocks.

    May has apparent deceived and annoyed plenty of MPs, perhaps enough to cause a problem with the vote, but that apocalyptic summation seems overblown when it is far from certain she will lose it. And if she wins it it means that even though many might think she cannot be trusted, they are still prepared to keep this ball rolling for awhile yet.

    The plausible scenario is May wins the vote, just, which means the government deal is the final say. Nobody can change it, ever.

    So the Brexiteers depose May because they don't trust her not to cave to the EU, in the hope of installing BoZo
    Quite a dilemma for the Lords on Monday.
    Do they throw the Government amendment out and back Grieve's - at the risk of losing entirely?
    Or take the Government's and accept something?

    Given the stakes they must be tempted to take Grieve's to the vote in the Commons, and then ping the Government's in for a further round of ping-pong, if the Grieve one doesn't carry the Commons.
    I'd assumed all along that there'd be at least one amendment which would face more than one round of ping pong, and with the May deceipt and another Labour MP about to be in the Commons, that seems a likely candidate. A large number of the Lords have been very passionate on this subject, so I should think enough will be willing to give it one more go.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    welshowl said:

    surby said:

    SeanT said:

    lol

    Amazed Scott P didn't retweet that.

    Leaving the EU is gonna be like eating a bucket of shite. Unfortnately, the alternative, staying in, will be like eating a cauldron of shite, every year, from here to the End of Time.

    The EU will never reform. As its stiff, sniffy, superior, legalistic negotiations with the UK eloquently reveal, it believes it is a new Carolingian, even Roman Empire in the making, and all those who demur must be crushed like the Parthians.

    Fuck 'em.
    They could also veto any FTA with the UK too. After all, 27 countries have to agree.

    Will East EU countries just meekly agree to any no FoM deal. After all, they don't sell BMWs and Prosecco to the UK. What's in it for them ?
    Not brushing up on Russian verbs.
    I've come to the view that it's like negotiating between Caesar and Pompey. Both sides say they want a deal, but pride makes a deal impossible.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: ‘Borrowing’ and ‘tax’ are doing the heavy lifting here. https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1007360201383645184

    I'm going to predict some reactions right now - it will be said not to be enough, and we'll have another winter crisis on our hands.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625

    YG 42/39

    Pretty sure last one was an outlier


    Probably. But outliers can be a sense of direction as well.

    Perhaps we should have a GE

    May with a 3 pt start against campaigning Corbyn

    What could possibly go wrong??
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Tickets for Labour Live 'JezFest' slashed by 70% in bid to boost sales


    There are claims poor sales could see Labour lose more than £1m from its north London event, which has been dubbed "JezFest".

    https://news.sky.com/story/tickets-for-labour-live-jezfest-slashed-by-70-in-bid-to-boost-sales-11405121

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    YG 42/39

    Pretty sure last one was an outlier

    Nate Silver reckons that if a pollster is doing their job properly about one in twenty polls should be outliers. It’s when they have none you should worry....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    YG 42/39

    Pretty sure last one was an outlier


    Probably. But outliers can be a sense of direction as well.

    Perhaps we should have a GE

    May with a 3 pt start against campaigning Corbyn

    What could possibly go wrong??
    There is no guarantee that Corbyn would manage to have a similar or even close rise to his last effort, particularly starting from a much higher position.

    I'd assume he would get a rise from the campaign, but the idea a small lead definitely won't be enough for the Tories is just hubris, even if any Tories flippantly dismissing the idea Corbyn will play well in a campaign again are also displaying it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal.

    You really aren't.
    Oh, I am. Aside from my London property (at risk, but not that much risk, I think), I have xxxxx amount in cash, xxxxxx invested in foreign shares, and I am right now drinking MOLDOVAN wine (ie, ex EU, Negru de Purcari, apparently the Queen's fave)

    Hard Brexit may fuck you, but then you're an idiot. You should have prepared. Duh.
    I think @Archer 101 may have a point when he says soft Brexit was never on offer.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    surby said:

    SeanT said:

    lol

    Amazed Scott P didn't retweet that.

    Leaving the EU is gonna be like eating a bucket of shite. Unfortnately, the alternative, staying in, will be like eating a cauldron of shite, every year, from here to the End of Time.

    The EU will never reform. As its stiff, sniffy, superior, legalistic negotiations with the UK eloquently reveal, it believes it is a new Carolingian, even Roman Empire in the making, and all those who demur must be crushed like the Parthians.

    Fuck 'em.
    They could also veto any FTA with the UK too. After all, 27 countries have to agree.

    Will East EU countries just meekly agree to any no FoM deal. After all, they don't sell BMWs and Prosecco to the UK. What's in it for them ?
    You're continually telling us that the UK benefits from uncontrolled immigration.

    In which case why would the Eastern European countries want it to continue ?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    kle4 said:

    YG 42/39

    Pretty sure last one was an outlier


    Probably. But outliers can be a sense of direction as well.

    Perhaps we should have a GE

    May with a 3 pt start against campaigning Corbyn

    What could possibly go wrong??
    There is no guarantee that Corbyn would manage to have a similar or even close rise to his last effort, particularly starting from a much higher position.

    I'd assume he would get a rise from the campaign, but the idea a small lead definitely won't be enough for the Tories is just hubris, even if any Tories flippantly dismissing the idea Corbyn will play well in a campaign again are also displaying it.
    I would fancy Labour biggest party if it were May vs Corbyn. A better Tory leader maybe Tories would hang on to that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631

    YG 42/39

    Pretty sure last one was an outlier

    Nate Silver reckons that if a pollster is doing their job properly about one in twenty polls should be outliers. It’s when they have none you should worry....
    How many polls has it been since labour had any sort of lead
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    Today's Tesco Strawberry score:

    Aberdeenshire
    Staffordshire
    Herefordshire
    Somerset
    Surrey
    Kent

    A rather miserly six.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    kle4 said:

    YG 42/39

    Pretty sure last one was an outlier


    Probably. But outliers can be a sense of direction as well.

    Perhaps we should have a GE

    May with a 3 pt start against campaigning Corbyn

    What could possibly go wrong??
    There is no guarantee that Corbyn would manage to have a similar or even close rise to his last effort, particularly starting from a much higher position.

    I'd assume he would get a rise from the campaign, but the idea a small lead definitely won't be enough for the Tories is just hubris, even if any Tories flippantly dismissing the idea Corbyn will play well in a campaign again are also displaying it.
    I would fancy Labour biggest party if it were May vs Corbyn. A better Tory leader maybe Tories would hang on to that.
    That seems plausible.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    Some Service industries particularly in finance will not be able to have access to the single market. So, yes I think that Europeans will buy less. It all depends on the rules of business though to be honest. In the case of a NO deal the complexity and locking out will differ but I think people underestimate it in the UK. We will be on the other side of the EU wall and if Trump thinks the EU is protectionist to the biggest economy in the world, the US, just imagine how little traction our economy will have.

    The thing that always makes me laugh is the comment on the UK being the biggest Importer of German cars. Well, they may well say to themselves the UK will continue to purchase our cars so we will not make it easy for them. I think this talk about whether the UK or EU would still purchase goods and services is a double edged sword. One thing is for certain if the UK is locked out of the Single market it will cause industries to suffer great turmoil. If you are not allowed to provide goods and services to a market you are pretty stuffed and winning new markets maybe impossible for some goods and services or at the least very difficult.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    SeanT said:

    lol

    Amazed Scott P didn't retweet that.

    Leaving the EU is gonna be like eating a bucket of shite. Unfortnately, the alternative, staying in, will be like eating a cauldron of shite, every year, from here to the End of Time.

    The EU will never reform. As its stiff, sniffy, superior, legalistic negotiations with the UK eloquently reveal, it believes it is a new Carolingian, even Roman Empire in the making, and all those who demur must be crushed like the Parthians.

    Fuck 'em.
    Fuck 'em. And keep the £40 billion.



  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    SeanT said:

    surby said:

    @Philip Thompson

    BBCs take on it

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44481447

    who goes first May or Merkel ?

    My view t the way of the Dodo when container ships, internet and demographic time bombs came along.
    Just look at Japan. That is what happens if there is no immigration in a country with rapid change in demography. The US on the other hand always managed to reinvigorate themselves with new immigration until NOW.

    Germany will soon have another boom like in the 60s when millions of Turks came in. In 10 years time, you will have Syrians playing for Germany like Mesut Ozil, Emre Can etc.
    The Syrians who made it to Germany are virtually unemployable. It wasn't a migration of polite doctors. It was largely aggressive and uneducated young men and, as a result, German rape stats have gone of the dial.

    And no wonder it. Look at the stats for Pakistani grooming rape gangs of underage British white girls. See the outcome of the Oxford Trial today. I do not believe there was a majority of Pakistani men in Britain who were unaware this was happening, 1990-2010. Indeed I suspect most of the Pakistani community were aware this was happening, and they tolerated it (perhaps with "unhappy distaste" because felt it at least protected their own daughters).

    Germany has wished this disaster upon itself. I predict Madam Merkel will be loathed in Germany as Blair as loathed in the UK (for Iraq) within a decade.
    Also the previous waves of immigration the immigrants wanted to integrate in the 60's and 70's. So here in the UK they wore suits and trilbys etc, to fit in. Same in Germany, With the latest immigration we see a different view where the immigrants want to recreate the society they came from in Europe. i.e young males not shaking the hands of female teachers and not respecting their authority.
    It all bodes very badly at the moment.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal.

    You really aren't.
    Oh, I am. Aside from my London property (at risk, but not that much risk, I think), I have xxxxx amount in cash, xxxxxx invested in foreign shares, and I am right now drinking MOLDOVAN wine (ie, ex EU, Negru de Purcari, apparently the Queen's fave)

    Hard Brexit may fuck you, but then you're an idiot. You should have prepared. Duh.

    That’s the line to use to non-wealthy Leave voters who are hit by a bad Brexit.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal.

    You really aren't.
    Oh, I am. Aside from my London property (at risk, but not that much risk, I think), I have xxxxx amount in cash, xxxxxx invested in foreign shares, and I am right now drinking MOLDOVAN wine (ie, ex EU, Negru de Purcari, apparently the Queen's fave)

    Hard Brexit may fuck you, but then you're an idiot. You should have prepared. Duh.

    That’s the line to use to non-wealthy Leave voters who are hit by a bad Brexit.

    We all know when Hard Brexit happens Sean will go all poncey boots gaylord and demand we rejoin the EU.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    We all know when Hard Brexit happens Sean will go all poncey boots gaylord

    Not again...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,188

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582

    surby said:

    SeanT said:

    lol

    Amazed Scott P didn't retweet that.

    Leaving the EU is gonna be like eating a bucket of shite. Unfortnately, the alternative, staying in, will be like eating a cauldron of shite, every year, from here to the End of Time.

    The EU will never reform. As its stiff, sniffy, superior, legalistic negotiations with the UK eloquently reveal, it believes it is a new Carolingian, even Roman Empire in the making, and all those who demur must be crushed like the Parthians.

    Fuck 'em.
    They could also veto any FTA with the UK too. After all, 27 countries have to agree.

    Will East EU countries just meekly agree to any no FoM deal. After all, they don't sell BMWs and Prosecco to the UK. What's in it for them ?
    You're continually telling us that the UK benefits from uncontrolled immigration.

    In which case why would the Eastern European countries want it to continue ?

    Because they benefit too?

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal.

    You really aren't.
    We are at work. We war gamed it.

    Won’t be perfect but it won’t kill us. There may even be some immediate upsides for us ( I am perfectly serious).
    Mind listing those immediate upsides?
    Pound might well drop - great for us, really good. Might be gilt yield rises in any turmoil great for the pension scheme. All might not last long and I accept it might not do others good - but it would us.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    I’ve been banging on about this for years. IDS has left a nuclear booby trap for the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1007365722346016768?s=21
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I’ve been banging on about this for years. IDS has left a nuclear booby trap for the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1007365722346016768?s=21

    If it will fail to increase employment how come since it was launched we've seen employment skyrocket to record levels?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal.

    You really aren't.
    Oh, I am. Aside from my London property (at risk, but not that much risk, I think), I have xxxxx amount in cash, xxxxxx invested in foreign shares, and I am right now drinking MOLDOVAN wine (ie, ex EU, Negru de Purcari, apparently the Queen's fave)

    Hard Brexit may fuck you, but then you're an idiot. You should have prepared. Duh.

    That’s the line to use to non-wealthy Leave voters who are hit by a bad Brexit.

    I would happily pay taxes if required for a hard Brexit.

    People like you can’t get past the horror of the servant shortage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    There's been a by-election in Doncaster today too btw :

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1007151724522377217

    I wonder if a certain Mr Ed Miliband has been GOTV ;)
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Today's Tesco Strawberry score:

    Aberdeenshire
    Staffordshire
    Herefordshire
    Somerset
    Surrey
    Kent

    A rather miserly six.

    The Telegraph ad an article on this. What we had was a cold Feb and March, which meant the crop was delayed by 6 weeks, but the fruit was larger and juicier. As a result we have a bumper crop of extraordinary strawberries this year in size and juice. So tuck in, because the foreign imports are sub standard compared to home grown.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    I’ve been banging on about this for years. IDS has left a nuclear booby trap for the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1007365722346016768?s=21

    Very disappointing indeed.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: ‘Borrowing’ and ‘tax’ are doing the heavy lifting here. https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1007360201383645184

    I'm going to predict some reactions right now - it will be said not to be enough, and we'll have another winter crisis on our hands.
    ' When the NHS was launched in 1948, it had a budget of £437 million (roughly £15 billion at today’s value). '

    https://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/thenhs/about/Pages/overview.aspx

    I believe that when the NHS was launched its advocates suggested that it would be so successful at improving the nation's health that funding would fall in future years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Just coming back from Lewisham East having at least managed to convince one former UKIP voter that Ross Archer was actually a Leaver and reminded someone who had forgotten today was actually polling day. Saw both Labour and LD activists out and generally all polite but passed one LD teller who said 'you will be lucky to get 10% tonight' and 'your leader is in office but not in power' to which I replied 'at least she is in power!'

    LDs really pushing Brexit hard, they had one leaflet out with both Corbyn and May's picture on the front saying 'Send them a message on Brexit today'
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188

    I’ve been banging on about this for years. IDS has left a nuclear booby trap for the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1007365722346016768?s=21

    If it will fail to increase employment how come since it was launched we've seen employment skyrocket to record levels?
    It is failing to increase employment amongst the long term unemployed.

    The new jobs are being taken by new entrants in the labour market.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    edited June 2018
    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal.

    You really aren't.
    Oh, I am. Aside from my London property (at risk, but not that much risk, I think), I have xxxxx amount in cash, xxxxxx invested in foreign shares, and I am right now drinking MOLDOVAN wine (ie, ex EU, Negru de Purcari, apparently the Queen's fave)

    Hard Brexit may fuck you, but then you're an idiot. You should have prepared. Duh.

    That’s the line to use to non-wealthy Leave voters who are hit by a bad Brexit.

    I would happily pay taxes if required for a hard Brexit.

    People like you can’t get past the horror of the servant shortage.

    My servants are unaffected.

    We will all be paying a lot more tax, that’s for sure. Like you, I don’t have a big problem with that. Unlike you, I would pay more tax even if there were no hard Brexit.

  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I’ve been banging on about this for years. IDS has left a nuclear booby trap for the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1007365722346016768?s=21

    If it will fail to increase employment how come since it was launched we've seen employment skyrocket to record levels?
    It is failing to increase employment amongst the long term unemployed.

    The new jobs are being taken by new entrants in the labour market.
    Then why are the numbers of unemployed and long term unemployed falling? Every single quarter the numbers of unemployed seems to shrink in absolute terms despite the growing labour pool.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: ‘Borrowing’ and ‘tax’ are doing the heavy lifting here. https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1007360201383645184

    I'm going to predict some reactions right now - it will be said not to be enough, and we'll have another winter crisis on our hands.
    ' When the NHS was launched in 1948, it had a budget of £437 million (roughly £15 billion at today’s value). '

    https://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/thenhs/about/Pages/overview.aspx

    I believe that when the NHS was launched its advocates suggested that it would be so successful at improving the nation's health that funding would fall in future years.
    And essentially it has when compared to many other nations. The difference is we now have a much higher life-expectancy and many more treatments and ailments than in 1948.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    @Philip Thompson

    BBCs take on it

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44481447

    who goes first May or Merkel ?

    My view is Merkel didn’t invite them in out of the kindness of her heart, it was cold and calculating based on Germany’s horrendous demographic time bomb. She invited them in to make up the short fall, to exploit them, in crappy jobs and wage poverty.

    I’ve been banging on about this for years. IDS has left a nuclear booby trap for the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1007365722346016768?s=21

    If it will fail to increase employment how come since it was launched we've seen employment skyrocket to record levels?
    It's not Universal yet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alexmassie: ‘Borrowing’ and ‘tax’ are doing the heavy lifting here. https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1007360201383645184

    I'm going to predict some reactions right now - it will be said not to be enough, and we'll have another winter crisis on our hands.
    Now we'll have six minutes to save the NHS, rather than five.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alistair said:

    @Philip Thompson

    BBCs take on it

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44481447

    who goes first May or Merkel ?

    My view is Merkel didn’t invite them in out of the kindness of her heart, it was cold and calculating based on Germany’s horrendous demographic time bomb. She invited them in to make up the short fall, to exploit them, in crappy jobs and wage poverty.

    I’ve been banging on about this for years. IDS has left a nuclear booby trap for the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1007365722346016768?s=21

    If it will fail to increase employment how come since it was launched we've seen employment skyrocket to record levels?
    It's not Universal yet.
    No but it has been introduced to many areas and we're seeing record employment and record low unemployment. Are you suggesting that's a pure coincidence?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Scott_P said:
    So the GET OUT THE VOTE pary wins.

    This used to be the Conservatives but lately has been Momentum.

    However, there wasn't a Momentum candidate in Lewisham.

    So who will be the GOTV party?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    HYUFD said:

    Just coming back from Lewisham East having at least managed to convince one former UKIP voter that Ross Archer was actually a Leaver and reminded someone who had forgotten today was actually polling day. Saw both Labour and LD activists out and generally all polite but passed one LD teller who said 'you will be lucky to get 10% tonight' and 'your leader is in office but not in power' to which I replied 'at least she is in power!'

    LDs really pushing Brexit hard, they had one leaflet out with both Corbyn and May's picture on the front saying 'Send them a message on Brexit today'

    Thanks for showing the flag :smile:
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?

    The Single Market has a population of 400 million. The UK doesn’t.

  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Today's Tesco Strawberry score:

    Aberdeenshire
    Staffordshire
    Herefordshire
    Somerset
    Surrey
    Kent

    A rather miserly six.

    The most boring meme in the history of PB, among several utterly dull contenders.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463

    I’ve been banging on about this for years. IDS has left a nuclear booby trap for the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1007365722346016768?s=21

    If it will fail to increase employment how come since it was launched we've seen employment skyrocket to record levels?
    It is failing to increase employment amongst the long term unemployed.

    The new jobs are being taken by new entrants in the labour market.
    When was it introduced ?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2018
    US Dollar up 1.85% against the Euro.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?
    I'm surprised any country exports stuff to the EU. FF43 makes it sound impossible!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,188

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?
    Not all will move from the the UK to the EU and not all at once. But no-one will be investing in the UK because of Brexit while plenty of companies are making the marginal decisions to place their investments in the EU and out of the UK.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    RoyalBlue said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just coming back from Lewisham East having at least managed to convince one former UKIP voter that Ross Archer was actually a Leaver and reminded someone who had forgotten today was actually polling day. Saw both Labour and LD activists out and generally all polite but passed one LD teller who said 'you will be lucky to get 10% tonight' and 'your leader is in office but not in power' to which I replied 'at least she is in power!'

    LDs really pushing Brexit hard, they had one leaflet out with both Corbyn and May's picture on the front saying 'Send them a message on Brexit today'

    Thanks for showing the flag :smile:
    Thank you, looking at the turnout I think every party was just trying to get out who they can
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?
    Not all will move from the the UK to the EU and not all at once. But no-one will be investing in the UK because of Brexit while plenty of companies are making the marginal decisions to place their investments in the EU and out of the UK.
    No-one? You are predicting zero investment in the UK after Brexit?

    A job at the Treasury beckons.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?

    The Single Market has a population of 400 million. The UK doesn’t.

    It probably won’t have 400 million in 50 years as large parts of Eastern Europe are depopulated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    edited June 2018

    I’ve been banging on about this for years. IDS has left a nuclear booby trap for the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1007365722346016768?s=21

    No universal credit will finally ensure work always pays and in the long one be a saving
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    Anazina said:

    Today's Tesco Strawberry score:

    Aberdeenshire
    Staffordshire
    Herefordshire
    Somerset
    Surrey
    Kent

    A rather miserly six.

    The most boring meme in the history of PB, among several utterly dull contenders.
    Be prepared to be bored all summer long.

    And were you equally bored by fake news about crops rotting in the fields ?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited June 2018
    Let me just summarise this headline article's contents

    'Lib Dems believe they are going to lose'

    On a World Cup related note, the new Dutch postal service stamp takes some beating. Worth looking up the story.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Anazina said:

    Today's Tesco Strawberry score:

    Aberdeenshire
    Staffordshire
    Herefordshire
    Somerset
    Surrey
    Kent

    A rather miserly six.

    The most boring meme in the history of PB, among several utterly dull contenders.
    We could combine them by saying people can vote for their favourite pizza toppings of strawberries or pineapple using the Alternative Vote.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?
    Not all will move from the the UK to the EU and not all at once. But no-one will be investing in the UK because of Brexit while plenty of companies are making the marginal decisions to place their investments in the EU and out of the UK.
    Companies that want to fill the demand left the by the European companies whose products are now un-competitive in the UK will fill the hole.
    The lesson of the 30's is that the countries that had a trade deficit did better than those that had a surplus.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?

    The Single Market has a population of 400 million. The UK doesn’t.

    So you agree with FF43 then that if there's a No Deal Brexit the UK will simply stop exporting to the EU? You people are so bloody negative about Britain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    kle4 said:

    That's why No Deal and No Brexit seem the most likely outcomes - the parliament (and the Tory Party) can politically only accept things which apparently are no goers. It's not even a matter of May capitulating at the end of it, since it may be simply impossible for her to do so.
    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.

    And the rebels want Boris do they
    If May is prepared to deceive them (which they seem to think she did, even if she would say otherwise) then their previous reluctance to unintentionally engender such an outcome might alter.
    I always thought - as do most voters- that politics was just another word for deceit plus Gieve and Soubry are both lawyers and that is their stock in trade.
    I may be naiive, but even among the murky depths of politics there must be times when you need to trust someone, on your side or another side, and while spin and obfuscation and other tactics are all part of the game, certain behaviours, direct deceipt for instance, will not be regarded as sensible tactics, and will lead to personal disagreements the likes of which will cause some people to behave irrationally out of anger down the line.
    A Canada style FTA remain the likeliest long term outcome
  • Dominic Grieve MP on Radio 4 just now has called the Daily Mail a "vile" newspaper, which seeks to stir up hatred.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Anazina said:

    Today's Tesco Strawberry score:

    Aberdeenshire
    Staffordshire
    Herefordshire
    Somerset
    Surrey
    Kent

    A rather miserly six.

    The most boring meme in the history of PB, among several utterly dull contenders.
    Don’t worry Anazina. When it comes to boring and repetitious you’re in a league of your own.

    At least Mr Meeks has flashes of wit and originality amongst the horde of XENOPHOBIC LIES.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    ydoethur said:

    Anazina said:

    Today's Tesco Strawberry score:

    Aberdeenshire
    Staffordshire
    Herefordshire
    Somerset
    Surrey
    Kent

    A rather miserly six.

    The most boring meme in the history of PB, among several utterly dull contenders.
    We could combine them by saying people can vote for their favourite pizza toppings of strawberries or pineapple using the Alternative Vote.
    Are you suggesting AV, the most amazing voting system known to mankind, is some kind of boring meme on PB? :o
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463
    Y0kel said:

    Let me just summarise this headline articles contents

    'Lib Dems believe they are going to lose'

    On a World Cup related note, the new Dutch postal service stamp takes some beating. Worth looking up the story.

    This ???

    https://twitter.com/ianbateson/status/1007205291849584642
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?
    Not all will move from the the UK to the EU and not all at once. But no-one will be investing in the UK because of Brexit while plenty of companies are making the marginal decisions to place their investments in the EU and out of the UK.
    No-one? You are predicting zero investment in the UK after Brexit?

    A job at the Treasury beckons.
    Do we still have one? Never hear anything come out of it these days...
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Well he does not have to buy it.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    So, right, where's this exit poll then????!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471

    Dominic Grieve MP on Radio 4 just now has called the Daily Mail a "vile" newspaper, which seeks to stir up hatred.

    He toned that down.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    Y0kel said:

    Let me just summarise this headline articles contents

    'Lib Dems believe they are going to lose'

    On a World Cup related note, the new Dutch postal service stamp takes some beating. Worth looking up the story.

    This ???

    https://twitter.com/ianbateson/status/1007205291849584642
    Being able to order stamps with any image you want sounds a bit risky. Surely there's an approval process?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188

    I’ve been banging on about this for years. IDS has left a nuclear booby trap for the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1007365722346016768?s=21

    If it will fail to increase employment how come since it was launched we've seen employment skyrocket to record levels?
    It is failing to increase employment amongst the long term unemployed.

    The new jobs are being taken by new entrants in the labour market.
    When was it introduced ?
    It is still being rolled out.

    They are doing it in several phases
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    HYUFD said:

    I’ve been banging on about this for years. IDS has left a nuclear booby trap for the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1007365722346016768?s=21

    No universal credit will finally ensure work always pays and in the long one be a saving
    You really need to live in the real world.

    It might help you win council seats.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Jonathan said:

    Dominic Grieve MP on Radio 4 just now has called the Daily Mail a "vile" newspaper, which seeks to stir up hatred.

    He toned that down.
    Better known as the Daily Blackshirt!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    Dominic Grieve MP on Radio 4 just now has called the Daily Mail a "vile" newspaper, which seeks to stir up hatred.

    Perhaps he thinks it should be censored.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,188

    @Philip Thompson

    BBCs take on it

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44481447

    who goes first May or Merkel ?

    My view is Merkel didn’t invite them in out of the kindness of her heart, it was cold and calculating based on Germany’s horrendous demographic time bomb. She invited them in to make up the short fall, to exploit them, in crappy jobs and wage poverty.

    [...]

    The refugees came to Germany in large numbers because Mrs Merkel, a woman of few firm principles, is nevertheless passionate about freedom of movement and refused to impose a border with Austria and other countries. Knowing this, Austria etc just allowed the refugees to pass through rather than try to prevent them coming into their countries. Those countries knew they would get rid of any refugees.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Dominic Grieve MP on Radio 4 just now has called the Daily Mail a "vile" newspaper, which seeks to stir up hatred.

    That's about as shocking as calling the Pope Catholic!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    justin124 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Dominic Grieve MP on Radio 4 just now has called the Daily Mail a "vile" newspaper, which seeks to stir up hatred.

    He toned that down.
    Better known as the Daily Blackshirt!
    It's always amused me somewhat that the Mail is never allowed to forget its brief flirtation with Fascism, while the Mirror, who were unabashed supporters of Mosley for far longer and whose readership was a great deal more - shall we say - niche is given a free pass on the issue.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,188

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?

    The Single Market has a population of 400 million. The UK doesn’t.

    So you agree with FF43 then that if there's a No Deal Brexit the UK will simply stop exporting to the EU? You people are so bloody negative about Britain.
    I didn't say that.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    I’ve been banging on about this for years. IDS has left a nuclear booby trap for the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1007365722346016768?s=21

    No universal credit will finally ensure work always pays and in the long one be a saving
    The difficulty will be , when the migration of existing claimants on legacy benefits starts.

    For example the more complex cases, with severely disabled children.

    Also all the payment going to one parent rather than it been able to be split .
    (I think this is been looked at )
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited June 2018

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?

    The Single Market has a population of 400 million. The UK doesn’t.

    So you agree with FF43 then that if there's a No Deal Brexit the UK will simply stop exporting to the EU? You people are so bloody negative about Britain.
    There is bound to be a fall in exports. Brexit is like putting sanctions on your own economy! If you cannot use your current supply chain or sell across borders how can you export?

    Again, the Exports we currently receive income for providing need to be replaced by Exports elsewhere. If not the country will not be as prosperous and we will fall behind our competitors. It is not simply a case of selling something to one market and saying never mind we can sell it somewhere else. The world does not work like that! You have to have a demand for the product you are selling.

    Preparing for Brexit is like preparing to fail. I can see this becoming very unpopular even with those duped into supporting it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?

    The Single Market has a population of 400 million. The UK doesn’t.

    So you agree with FF43 then that if there's a No Deal Brexit the UK will simply stop exporting to the EU? You people are so bloody negative about Britain.

    I do not believe that was FF43’s point. The point being made is that if your biggest market is the single market you are likely to be better off based inside it than outside it. I don’t see how that is being negative about Britain.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Dominic Grieve MP on Radio 4 just now has called the Daily Mail a "vile" newspaper, which seeks to stir up hatred.

    He toned that down.
    Better known as the Daily Blackshirt!
    It's always amused me somewhat that the Mail is never allowed to forget its brief flirtation with Fascism, while the Mirror, who were unabashed supporters of Mosley for far longer and whose readership was a great deal more - shall we say - niche is given a free pass on the issue.
    Perhaps because the Mail has continued to plough a very rightwing furrow - every bit as extreme as The Morning Star or Socialist Worker on the left.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,463

    I’ve been banging on about this for years. IDS has left a nuclear booby trap for the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1007365722346016768?s=21

    If it will fail to increase employment how come since it was launched we've seen employment skyrocket to record levels?
    It is failing to increase employment amongst the long term unemployed.

    The new jobs are being taken by new entrants in the labour market.
    When was it introduced ?
    It is still being rolled out.

    They are doing it in several phases
    Thanks.

    Its still behind schedule then - not surprisingly.

    As to its effect on the long term unemployed there's clearly a 'Giro Jim' component to them, how big that is I don't know.
  • Dominic Grieve MP on Radio 4 just now has called the Daily Mail a "vile" newspaper, which seeks to stir up hatred.

    That's about as shocking as calling the Pope Catholic!
    Well, I was shocked to hear a Conservative MP say it......
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    Sean_F said:

    Dominic Grieve MP on Radio 4 just now has called the Daily Mail a "vile" newspaper, which seeks to stir up hatred.

    Perhaps he thinks it should be censored.

    I am guessing you don’t think publications that seek to stir up hatred should be banned, so why should he?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732


    I do not believe that was FF43’s point. The point being made is that if your biggest market is the single market you are likely to be better off based inside it than outside it. I don’t see how that is being negative about Britain.

    He literally predicted zero investment in the UK after Brexit. There's being negative, but that's something else entirely!
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534

    Dominic Grieve MP on Radio 4 just now has called the Daily Mail a "vile" newspaper, which seeks to stir up hatred.

    That's about as shocking as calling the Pope Catholic!
    With his actions around Brexit, he's created more anger than the Mail ever can. Foul, vile little man, no doubt in bed with his EU masters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    edited June 2018
    Anazina said:

    Today's Tesco Strawberry score:

    Aberdeenshire
    Staffordshire
    Herefordshire
    Somerset
    Surrey
    Kent

    A rather miserly six.

    The most boring meme in the history of PB, among several utterly dull contenders.
    The only thing duller than memes are people who get so worked up about them that they complain about them endlessly, creating their own meme like Pavlovian reaction. Memes die on their own without any help, whinging about them just makes them last longer, making the complainers their own worst enemy, as new enjoyment is found in provoking the reaction. Just ask everyone who puts in emojis to their posts when Tyson expresses his dislike of them.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?
    Not all will move from the the UK to the EU and not all at once. But no-one will be investing in the UK because of Brexit while plenty of companies are making the marginal decisions to place their investments in the EU and out of the UK.
    No-one. Because of Brexit.

    Riiiiight........
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?
    Not all will move from the the UK to the EU and not all at once. But no-one will be investing in the UK because of Brexit while plenty of companies are making the marginal decisions to place their investments in the EU and out of the UK.
    Companies that want to fill the demand left the by the European companies whose products are now un-competitive in the UK will fill the hole.
    The lesson of the 30's is that the countries that had a trade deficit did better than those that had a surplus.

    In many instances, the UK market isn’t big enough to justify the investments needed to build production facilities from scratch.

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    Today's Tesco Strawberry score:

    Aberdeenshire
    Staffordshire
    Herefordshire
    Somerset
    Surrey
    Kent

    A rather miserly six.

    The most boring meme in the history of PB, among several utterly dull contenders.
    The only thing duller than memes are people who get so worked up about them that they complain about them endlessly, creating their own meme like Pavlovian reaction. Memes die on their own without any help, whinging about them just makes them last longer. Just ask everyone who puts in emojis to their posts when Tyson expresses his dislike of them.
    :lol:
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442

    I’ve been banging on about this for years. IDS has left a nuclear booby trap for the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1007365722346016768?s=21

    If it will fail to increase employment how come since it was launched we've seen employment skyrocket to record levels?
    It is failing to increase employment amongst the long term unemployed.

    The new jobs are being taken by new entrants in the labour market.
    When was it introduced ?
    It is still being rolled out.

    They are doing it in several phases
    Thanks.

    Its still behind schedule then - not surprisingly.

    As to its effect on the long term unemployed there's clearly a 'Giro Jim' component to them, how big that is I don't know.


    UC is a bit like Brexit.

    We can go slowly or we can go fast, but when going through hell, keep on going.

    We can emerge with something better.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,188

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do ...




    the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?
    Not all will move from the the UK to the EU and not all at once. But no-one will be investing in the UK because of Brexit while plenty of companies are making the marginal decisions to place their investments in the EU and out of the UK.
    Companies that want to fill the demand left the by the European companies whose products are now un-competitive in the UK will fill the hole.
    The lesson of the 30's is that the countries that had a trade deficit did better than those that had a surplus.
    Only if it's cost effective to produce uniquely for a market of 60 million. For a lot of products it won't be. Cars for example. In that case the goods will have to be imported. Not necessarily from the EU, but they won't be made in the UK, unlike now. That's the point I'm making.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!



    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?

    The Single Market has a population of 400 million. The UK doesn’t.

    So you agree with FF43 then that if there's a No Deal Brexit the UK will simply stop exporting to the EU? You people are so bloody negative about Britain.
    There is bound to be a fall in exports. Brexit is like putting sanctions on your own economy! If you cannot use your current supply chain or sell across borders how can you export?

    Again, the exports we currently receive income for providing need to be replaced by Exports elsewhere. If not the country will not be as prosperous and we will fall behind our competitors. It is not simply a case of selling something to one market and saying never mind we can sell it somewhere else. The world does not work like that! You have to have a demand for the product you are selling.

    Preparing for Brexit is like preparing to fail. I can see this becoming very unpopular even with those duped into supporting it.
    The impact would be mitigated by a fall in imports from the EU.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    That's why No Deal and No Brexit seem the most likely outcomes - the parliament (and the Tory Party) can politically only accept things which apparently are no goers. It's not even a matter of May capitulating at the end of it, since it may be simply impossible for her to do so.
    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    I think Sir Graham Brady's postie will be very busy in the next few days.

    And the rebels want Boris do they
    If May is prepared to deceive them (which they seem to think she did, even if she would say otherwise) then their previous reluctance to unintentionally engender such an outcome might alter.
    I always thought - as do most voters- that politics was just another word for deceit plus Gieve and Soubry are both lawyers and that is their stock in trade.
    I may be naiive, but even among the murky depths of politics there must be times when you need to trust someone, on your side or another side, and while spin and obfuscation and other tactics are all part of the game, certain behaviours, direct deceipt for instance, will not be regarded as sensible tactics, and will lead to personal disagreements the likes of which will cause some people to behave irrationally out of anger down the line.
    A Canada style FTA remain the likeliest long term outcome
    I think you're optimistic. The government doesn't have the numbers to positively for specific options, and lacks the numbers to accept fall back options, so inadvertent crash out looks much more likely to me.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do ...




    the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?
    Not all will move from the the UK to the EU and not all at once. But no-one will be investing in the UK because of Brexit while plenty of companies are making the marginal decisions to place their investments in the EU and out of the UK.
    Companies that want to fill the demand left the by the European companies whose products are now un-competitive in the UK will fill the hole.
    The lesson of the 30's is that the countries that had a trade deficit did better than those that had a surplus.
    Only if it's cost effective to produce uniquely for a market of 60 million. For a lot of products it won't be. Cars for example. In that case the goods will have to be imported. Not necessarily from the EU, but they won't be made in the UK, unlike now. That's the point I'm making.
    Since only we and Ireland drive on the left, cars are - whilst mostly similar - already finished for the UK market. I can't see our rules differentiating any more than that
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    RobD said:


    I do not believe that was FF43’s point. The point being made is that if your biggest market is the single market you are likely to be better off based inside it than outside it. I don’t see how that is being negative about Britain.

    He literally predicted zero investment in the UK after Brexit. There's being negative, but that's something else entirely!
    Like Jacob Rees Mogg and Somerset Capital Management then! They have next to No investment in the UK! JRM backing Britain- NOT!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    edited June 2018
    welshowl said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:


    I think many of us are now prepared for No Deal. It will fuck everything up for a year or two, and London property owners (like me) will take a major hit, but we are the British, we have been through far, far worse.

    And in the end, total freedom from the EU might well be a huge economic boost. Who knows?

    Either way we shall be free. If it is No Deal. So be it.
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll over to non-European customers? I would like to see you sell Dutch books in China or German books in India!

    I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.

    I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.

    I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?
    Not all will move from the the UK to the EU and not all at once. But no-one will be investing in the UK because of Brexit while plenty of companies are making the marginal decisions to place their investments in the EU and out of the UK.
    No-one. Because of Brexit.

    Riiiiight........

    What investments in the UK do you see Brexit generating?

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,188
    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:
    Yeah, do you really think that British exports purchased by European customers are going to magically roll outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
    Do you think all Europeans are going to stop buying British goods after a no deal Brexit?
    They won't be made in Britain any more. Why produce stuff in the UK for sale to the EU when you can produce it in the EU and avoid the costs and hassle of exporting?
    So you think all the British companies that export to the EU will just move operations to Europe then? Do you think all the European companies that export to Britain will do the reverse?

    The Single Market has a population of 400 million. The UK doesn’t.

    So you agree with FF43 then that if there's a No Deal Brexit the UK will simply stop exporting to the EU? You people are so bloody negative about Britain.
    There is bound to be a fall in exports. Brexit is like putting sanctions on your own economy! If you cannot use your current supply chain or sell across borders how can you export?

    Again, the exports we currently receive income for providing need to be replaced by Exports elsewhere. If not the country will not be as prosperous and we will fall behind our competitors. It is not simply a case of selling something to one market and saying never mind we can sell it somewhere else. The world does not work like that! You have to have a demand for the product you are selling.

    Preparing for Brexit is like preparing to fail. I can see this becoming very unpopular even with those duped into supporting it.
    The impact would be mitigated by a fall in imports from the EU.
    That's not really relevant. We make our money from our exports. If we import less that's because we can't afford it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188

    I’ve been banging on about this for years. IDS has left a nuclear booby trap for the Tories.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1007365722346016768?s=21

    If it will fail to increase employment how come since it was launched we've seen employment skyrocket to record levels?
    It is failing to increase employment amongst the long term unemployed.

    The new jobs are being taken by new entrants in the labour market.
    When was it introduced ?
    It is still being rolled out.

    They are doing it in several phases
    Thanks.

    Its still behind schedule then - not surprisingly.

    As to its effect on the long term unemployed there's clearly a 'Giro Jim' component to them, how big that is I don't know.
    They trialled it in a few places.

    Then rolled it out to other places where new claimants are automatically put on Universal Credit.

    Then the plan is by 2020 move across all other existing benefit claimants.

    The ticking timebomb is most of the tax credits recipients are yet to move over to UC.

    My friend works in a UC JCP and she says it is a disaster. It is great in theory but the logistics of it are messed up.

    Many moons ago I used to volunteer 3 hours a week helping the families of prisoners with problems, the chap that runs that clinic says UC is so pernicious, it is an Orwellian nightmare.

    Says he's branched out to helping any families and he and his staff are having to give them money and food, that's how bad the situation is.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    The result in Lewisham is expected around 3am.

    I'm off to bed 'cause it is Eid tomorrow, one of the two days a year I have to pretend to be a good Muslim.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    RobD said:


    I do not believe that was FF43’s point. The point being made is that if your biggest market is the single market you are likely to be better off based inside it than outside it. I don’t see how that is being negative about Britain.

    He literally predicted zero investment in the UK after Brexit. There's being negative, but that's something else entirely!

    No, he didn’t. He said Brexit would not lead to people investing in the UK.

This discussion has been closed.