politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The lastest Lewisham East odds and expectations
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The lastest Lewisham East odds and expectations
With less than 2 hours of voting left the Lewisham East by election and an easy Labour hold looks like the market expectation with the Lib Dems in second. I wonder if the value is backing the turnout at sub 30% at 12/1 pic.twitter.com/nGs9m3wfEk
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Who knew!
BBCs take on it
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44481447
who goes first May or Merkel ?
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1007336167598149633?s=20
Expectations management is only really an issue for big parties.
It doesn't seem that bad an idea, frankly.
Anything other than a VERY easy Labour hold would probably convince even Corbyn it's time to go. Surely even low turnout couldn't put this in peril?
18% (Manchester Central, 2012) is of course the key figure to beat...because if they can't get out more voters than that, it suggests the Labour vote is less enthusiastic about Corbyn than they were about Miliband.
What I think is that May panicked, they said anything at all to win the vote, then tried to fudge it, pissing off a lot of people, but that they think that they can actually win after all anyway. They might well be wrong about that, but I find it plausible why May seemingly decided misleading their own MPs was the way to go.
Start of Twitter thread here.
Bare in mind this is a licensed child care facility staffed by professionals and it is the only facility the press have been allowed to see.
They will be setting up tent city internment camps without any form of child care licensing.
the LimpetJeremy Corbyn.'But I think a loss in Lewisham on top of the ongoing Brexit mess and his failure to make the slightest headway in the polls would probably lead his supporters to conclude he's not the Jezziah, he's a very naughty boy.
I should stress however that I will be beyond astonished if Labour get below 50% of the vote.
But what I do think is that this Parliament has no majority for Brexit... Or anything else...
Theresa May still has one priceless asset left - she is less unpalatable to both sides than any possible alternative. Until such a One emerges, plotters will probably hold their hands.
(That capital O is a typo, btw, but I like it so I'm leaving it.)
Well, when I say 'close' - fifteen points behind. Closer than he Tories have been in any election for 26 years, anyway!
The hardcore Remainers don't seem to have enough to trigger a ballot and will surely fear a true-believer Brexiteer taking over.
The hardcore Brexiteers don't seem to be willing to push too hard either for fear of losing more time or control of the situation.
The voters of Germany and Britain are largely pig ignorant of the demographic time bomb governments are wrestling with, voters just think the country’s full and don’t like the way immigration is changing it, the voters don’t realise how embarrassing and futile this little period of demanding politicians sort out immigration will eventually look.
In future decades Britain today will be used as a text book example. There currently isn’t an immigration policy to satisfy voters, merely the promise of one. The voters will not get one, because no brexit or hard brexit the British government will never have the power to introduce it. To some degree never in history did it have that power, and in 21st century globalised economy it now never can have. Whatever little control sovereign governments did have over immigration went the way of the Dodo when container ships, internet and demographic time bombs came along.
https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1007329153316786177?s=21
https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1007329418711363585?s=21
Without wishing to make you feel old, 26 years ago I was at primary school. 31 years ago I hadn't even started primary school.
It's a VERY long time since the Conservatives held this seat (and I think you're underplaying the boundary changes although it's worth noting that even before they kicked in Labour were topping 50%). Second place would be a reasonable result. Third would be poor. A win would be the equivalent of Jean Claude Juncker having a lucid moment.
They remember the lessons of 2003.
That's a good question actually.
In the event of a leadership contest just who would be the flag-bearer for Tory Remainers?
Hammond?
The need for Immigration is a well known secret of the establishment, something that even Farage/ Boris/ Fox and Mogg buy into in couched terms.
Will East EU countries just meekly agree to any no FoM deal. After all, they don't sell BMWs and Prosecco to the UK. What's in it for them ?
All done with half our team away playing with England.
May has apparent deceived and annoyed plenty of MPs, perhaps enough to cause a problem with the vote, but that apocalyptic summation seems overblown when it is far from certain she will lose it. And if she wins it it means that even though many might think she cannot be trusted, they are still prepared to keep this ball rolling for awhile yet.
Won’t be perfect but it won’t kill us. There may even be some immediate upsides for us ( I am perfectly serious).
Germany will soon have another boom like in the 60s when millions of Turks came in. In 10 years time, you will have Syrians playing for Germany like Mesut Ozil, Emre Can etc.
So the Brexiteers depose May because they don't trust her not to cave to the EU, in the hope of installing BoZo
I have never understood why Derivative trading in London for German, French or Italian customers will be magically changed to countries that might not have developed to the point where they need high ended Financial services for instance.
I just think Brexit is a process of self harm economically and downturns are NEVER easy for those who are afflicted by the fall out.
I doubt property will take much of a hit by the way. The Bank of England will just relax monetary policy to compensate, if Sterling falls more outside buyers will invest in property at the right price. If interest rates are lower it will pull in more buyers. If salaries fall it might have a negative affect but i doubt that is going to happen.
(I don't think May's going to do that, incidentally!)
Heck, Lloyd George twice deliberately misled Parliament and was guilty of insider trading and selling peerages for personal financial gain, but he still stayed as PM for 6 years and a key political figure for another 13.
Pretty sure last one was an outlier
Do they throw the Government amendment out and back Grieve's - at the risk of losing entirely?
Or take the Government's and accept something?
Given the stakes they must be tempted to take Grieve's to the vote in the Commons, and then ping the Government's in for a further round of ping-pong, if the Grieve one doesn't carry the Commons.
Probably. But outliers can be a sense of direction as well.