politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As more Labour MPs call for a referendum on the deal I’m not c

another_richard said:

Philip_Thompson said:

surby said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

brendan16 said:

felix said:

tlg86 said:

RoyalBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Blue on blue:

https://twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1002451246777819136?s=21

I think complaining about a referendum campaign being divisive is a good working definition of stupidity.

This detracts from the underlying validity of her point.

Has Lawson bribed the French to get his residency? If not, I don't get what all the fuss is about.

Indeed - he has had a home there for many years and is following general advice given by the French authorities. As a Remain voter I'm appalled at the unpleasant tone of these kind of attacks.

Those of course criticising Lawson miss the point. The French government and only them should have the right to determine who can live permanently in France and claim entitlements there and the same applies to Britain - not the EU.

I expect Lawson pays rather a lot in taxes as he is a wealthy man. And if he uses the French healthcare system the UK will pick up the costs. So I expect France gets a good deal from him living there as he will never need to claim welfare or be a burden on the state.

Quality not quantity.

Is he a particularly wealthy man? I'm sure he's done OK for himself, but I doubt he's worth that much.

Define wealthy.

He's no Richard Branson but I'm sure he's well above average as far as wealth and thus taxation is concerned. All MPs are.

I don't know about Lawson's wealth - he's certainly more than just comfortable but I do not think an average MP is that rich. We don't pay them well in this country.

I am also sure in the last 40 years their average pay increase has been well below average earnings growth.

Don't pay them well?

Average UK income: £27,271
MP's basic income: £77,379

A backbench MP let alone a minister earns more than £50k above the average UK income or roughly 3x the average UK income. If we paid our MPs a median UK salary they'd be taking a dramatic pay cut.

I expect the best opportunities for politicians to earn the big money comes after they have left front line politics and start taking up directorships etc.

Philip_Thompson said:

Oh and for my figures I apologise but I used the mean average and not the median average income. The median average is considerably lower at around £22,400 - so the MPs salary is 3.5x the median salary.

In fact a backbencher let alone a minister is in the top 5 percentile for income in this country.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1003015289972326402

TheScreamingEagles said:

Like I said the other day within days of a no deal Brexit, Leavers will be either forced to recant their Brexit beliefs or be thrown into the sea with concrete shoes.

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Oh and for my figures I apologise but I used the mean average and not the median average income. The median average is considerably lower at around £22,400 - so the MPs salary is 3.5x the median salary.

In fact a backbencher let alone a minister is in the top 5 percentile for income in this country.

According to Wikipedia, the media for full time employees was £27,000 in 2014, so it seems reasonable to assume the current median is probably £29,000 or so.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_in_the_United_Kingdom

kle4 said:

I would hope you'd accept a profuse apology and some kind of non lethal penance. Even if the highest risk scenario was a greater chance than I should have realised in my foolishness it doesn't retrospectively become a certainty, as even most remainers didn't expect no deal.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Kishan_Devani/status/1002990219434643458

surby said:

Pulpstar said:

surby said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

brendan16 said:

felix said:

tlg86 said:

RoyalBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Blue on blue:

https://twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1002451246777819136?s=21

I think complaining about a referendum campaign being divisive is a good working definition of stupidity.

This detracts from the underlying validity of her point.

Has Lawson bribed the French to get his residency? If not, I don't get what all the fuss is about.

Indeed - he has had a home there for many years and is following general advice given by the French authorities. As a Remain voter I'm appalled at the unpleasant tone of these kind of attacks.

Those of course criticising Lawson miss the point. The French government and only them should have the right to determine who can live permanently in France and claim entitlements there and the same applies to Britain - not the EU.

I expect Lawson pays rather a lot in taxes as he is a wealthy man. And if he uses the French healthcare system the UK will pick up the costs. So I expect France gets a good deal from him living there as he will never need to claim welfare or be a burden on the state.

Quality not quantity.

Is he a particularly wealthy man? I'm sure he's done OK for himself, but I doubt he's worth that much.

Define wealthy.

He's no Richard Branson but I'm sure he's well above average as far as wealth and thus taxation is concerned. All MPs are.

I don't know about Lawson's wealth - he's certainly more than just comfortable but I do not think an average MP is that rich. We don't pay them well in this country.

I am also sure in the last 40 years their average pay increase has been well below average earnings growth.

Completely wrong, and an opinion that could only originate from London

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10173107/MPs-pay-rise-how-politicians-pay-has-risen-quicker-than-the-workers.html

I don't read the Torygraph.

OK. What was the average or median pay in , say, 1968 and 2018 ? What was the MPs pay in 1968 and 2018 ?

An MP is a potential Cabinet Minister or even PM. Do we really want them to be average ?

An Irish TD [ 120 of them in a country of 5 million ] earns € 93599. The Taoiseach earns aroung € 190,000.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Like I said the other day within days of a no deal Brexit, Leavers will be either forced to recant their Brexit beliefs or be thrown into the sea with concrete shoes.

I would hope you'd accept a profuse apology and some kind of non lethal penance. Even if the highest risk scenario was a greater chance than I should have realised in my foolishness it doesn't retrospectively become a certainty, as even most remainers didn't expect no deal.

Nope, you were warned beforehand by myself and others this was a very strong possibility.

Whenever I want a good laugh I go back and read the abuse Alastair received when he wrote a pre referendum thread that doing a deal within 2-3 years was unlikely given how long it took to sort out other deals.

We need a de-Leaverifaction process like West Germany did with the Nazis post WWII the poison needs to be drained lest it come back and take the whole body.

another_richard said:

Benpointer said:

surby said:

williamglenn said:

tpfkar said:

So how exactly is Michael Gove supposed to sell a deal to parliament without a majority? Has he a clever solution for the Northern Ireland border conundrum in his back pocket. He may have that ideological enthusiasm for Brexit that Theresa May has never convinced on - but surely he'd be stuck with all the same constraints.

Unless he felt like another snap General Election might help things.

Apparently his plan is to breach EU rules by signing trade deals. No doubt Liam Fox has a stack of them just waiting for a PM with the guts to sign...

Surely that will be against the law as we signed to be in the EU unless we will now renege on existing and legally binding treaties even if some Britons we do not like them!

Yes, I am sure many nations will be falling over themselves to sign a trade deal with a country that reneges on its legally binding treaties.

Like Germany and its car emissions ?

rcs1000 said:

AndyJS said:

Big gap between price of WTI crude and Brent crude, $65.81 and $76.79. Don't think I've seen such a large divergence before.

https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

My next video is on oil, and will (among other things) address that issue.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Kishan_Devani/status/1002990219434643458

AnneJGP said:

Oh, I guess as long as the SNP still sees independence from the UK as a realistic goal there's hope for severance of UK from the EU.

If it proves impossible to unpick a 40-year alliance, it's hard to see how we're going to unpick a 300-year one.

DecrepitJohnL said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

His papa should have come to Yorkshire.

https://twitter.com/PeterSweden7/status/1002286412597809153

Who's Peter Sweden ???

Do you follow more twatterers than Scott does ?

He's one of Europe's Alt-Rightists.

I don't follow him someone I do follow retweeted that with a lot of sarcasm.

https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1002918348081025026

Does anyone you know follow Plato ?

I'd be fun to know what got her the big red card.

I did notice it was around the time a lot of Russian troll accounts got purged.

But Plato was a real person - was she some sort of deep lying Russian agent ?

I did occasionally wonder if Plato were actually two people but then part of the appeal of the internet is no-one knows you're a Russian troll dog. Did she ever attend a pb meeting?

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Oh and for my figures I apologise but I used the mean average and not the median average income. The median average is considerably lower at around £22,400 - so the MPs salary is 3.5x the median salary.

In fact a backbencher let alone a minister is in the top 5 percentile for income in this country.

Though that median figure of £22 500 includes part time workers as well as full time workers and being an MP should be a full time job

If being a backbench MP is a full time job how do over a hundred MPs manage to hold second jobs as Ministers?

That is not really a second job just a promotion, if you manage something you often still have to do most of the job you were previously doing as well

No it's a second job. Over a hundred Ministers manage to fit their MP work into a fraction of their weekly work, what makes their weekly work Full Time for non-Ministers?

Parliament doesn't even sit Full Time hours, the statutory leave requirement is 28 days per year (5 weeks and 3 days) with Parliament off for far more than that.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Oh and for my figures I apologise but I used the mean average and not the median average income. The median average is considerably lower at around £22,400 - so the MPs salary is 3.5x the median salary.

In fact a backbencher let alone a minister is in the top 5 percentile for income in this country.

Though that median figure of £22 500 includes part time workers as well as full time workers and being an MP should be a full time job

If being a backbench MP is a full time job how do over a hundred MPs manage to hold second jobs as Ministers?

That is not really a second job just a promotion, if you manage something you often still have to do most of the job you were previously doing as well

No it's a second job. Over a hundred Ministers manage to fit their MP work into a fraction of their weekly work, what makes their weekly work Full Time for non-Ministers?

Parliament doesn't even sit Full Time hours, the statutory leave requirement is 28 days per year (5 weeks and 3 days) with Parliament off for far more than that.

Richard_Tyndall said:

surby said:

I don't read the Torygraph.

OK. What was the average or median pay in , say, 1968 and 2018 ? What was the MPs pay in 1968 and 2018 ?

An MP is a potential Cabinet Minister or even PM. Do we really want them to be average ?

An Irish TD [ 120 of them in a country of 5 million ] earns € 93599. The Taoiseach earns aroung € 190,000.

Can't find the figures for 1968 but in 1996 the average earnings was £23,000 a year and MPs pay was £34,000 a year.

Today the average earnings has risen to £27,000 a year and MPs pay has risen to £76,000 a year.

So since 1996 Average pay has gone up by 17% and MPs pay has gone up by 123%.

another_richard said:

Benpointer said:

another_richard said:

Benpointer said:

surby said:

williamglenn said:

tpfkar said:

Apparently his plan is to breach EU rules by signing trade deals. No doubt Liam Fox has a stack of them just waiting for a PM with the guts to sign...

Surely that will be against the law as we signed to be in the EU unless we will now renege on existing and legally binding treaties even if some Britons we do not like them!

Yes, I am sure many nations will be falling over themselves to sign a trade deal with a country that reneges on its legally binding treaties.

Like Germany and its car emissions ?

Interesting point (though of course Germany is not seeking trade deals around the world).

Can you point me at a summary of how Germany has broken legally binding treaties over 'dieselgate' (as opposed to German manufacturers fraudulently manipulating emissions results)? It's a genuine question - I suspect you will have some evidence, I am just not up to speed on the topic. Thanks.

There are PBers far more knowledgeable about the story than I am but a quick google:

' Meeting minutes, correspondence and conversation records that SPIEGEL ONLINE and the Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet have obtained now show that the European Commission and member states knew, since 2010 at the latest, that the extremely harmful emissions from diesel cars were strikingly higher than legal levels.

But apparently none of the officials wanted the automakers to tell them why this was the case. According to EU officials, pressure from countries with a strong auto industry, most notably Germany, significantly reduced interest in an investigation. Instead of doing something about the environmental policy violation, the Commission and the member states passed the buck to each other. This undignified back-and-forth even continued after the VW scandal about manipulated diesel cars in the United States was exposed in September 2015. '

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/volkswagen-how-officials-ignored-years-of-emissions-evidence-a-1108325.html

here's something similar from the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/20/european-commission-warned-car-maker-suspected-cheating-five-years-vw-scandal

Laws, treaties and the like get ignored when it suits governmental organisations to do so.

williamglenn said:

AnneJGP said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Kishan_Devani/status/1002990219434643458

Oh, I guess as long as the SNP still sees independence from the UK as a realistic goal there's hope for severance of UK from the EU.

If it proves impossible to unpick a 40-year alliance, it's hard to see how we're going to unpick a 300-year one.

This is a category error. Brexit isn't secession from a sovereign state but withdrawal from a treaty organisation accompanied by demands to renegotiate the benefits of what we already have on our own terms.

In comparison Scottish independence is tangible and deliverable.

williamglenn said:

AnneJGP said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Kishan_Devani/status/1002990219434643458

Oh, I guess as long as the SNP still sees independence from the UK as a realistic goal there's hope for severance of UK from the EU.

If it proves impossible to unpick a 40-year alliance, it's hard to see how we're going to unpick a 300-year one.

This is a category error. Brexit isn't secession from a sovereign state but withdrawal from a treaty organisation accompanied by demands to renegotiate the benefits of what we already have on our own terms.

In comparison Scottish independence is tangible and deliverable.

Benpointer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Oh and for my figures I apologise but I used the mean average and not the median average income. The median average is considerably lower at around £22,400 - so the MPs salary is 3.5x the median salary.

In fact a backbencher let alone a minister is in the top 5 percentile for income in this country.

Though that median figure of £22 500 includes part time workers as well as full time workers and being an MP should be a full time job

If being a backbench MP is a full time job how do over a hundred MPs manage to hold second jobs as Ministers?

That is not really a second job just a promotion, if you manage something you often still have to do most of the job you were previously doing as well

No it's a second job. Over a hundred Ministers manage to fit their MP work into a fraction of their weekly work, what makes their weekly work Full Time for non-Ministers?

Parliament doesn't even sit Full Time hours, the statutory leave requirement is 28 days per year (5 weeks and 3 days) with Parliament off for far more than that.

Just put your fingers in your ears and go 'La La La' and you will have completed the look.

surby said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

surby said:

I don't read the Torygraph.

OK. What was the average or median pay in , say, 1968 and 2018 ? What was the MPs pay in 1968 and 2018 ?

An MP is a potential Cabinet Minister or even PM. Do we really want them to be average ?

An Irish TD [ 120 of them in a country of 5 million ] earns € 93599. The Taoiseach earns aroung € 190,000.

Can't find the figures for 1968 but in 1996 the average earnings was £23,000 a year and MPs pay was £34,000 a year.

Today the average earnings has risen to £27,000 a year and MPs pay has risen to £76,000 a year.

So since 1996 Average pay has gone up by 17% and MPs pay has gone up by 123%.

You are having me on. So the average earnings went up 17% in 22 years ? I thought it went up 2.8% in the last year alone.

Ok. How does it compare to inflation ?

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

surby said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

surby said:

I don't read the Torygraph.

OK. What was the average or median pay in , say, 1968 and 2018 ? What was the MPs pay in 1968 and 2018 ?

An MP is a potential Cabinet Minister or even PM. Do we really want them to be average ?

An Irish TD [ 120 of them in a country of 5 million ] earns € 93599. The Taoiseach earns aroung € 190,000.

Can't find the figures for 1968 but in 1996 the average earnings was £23,000 a year and MPs pay was £34,000 a year.

Today the average earnings has risen to £27,000 a year and MPs pay has risen to £76,000 a year.

So since 1996 Average pay has gone up by 17% and MPs pay has gone up by 123%.

You are having me on. So the average earnings went up 17% in 22 years ? I thought it went up 2.8% in the last year alone.

Ok. How does it compare to inflation ?

I am not sure why you think this is wrong. I know the public sector complain about having lower than inflation payrises or no payrises but in the private sector in the last decade real cuts in pay have been very common if not the norm. In the oil industry since 2014 the average staff pay has dropped by almost 20%. Contractor rates are down by an average of 40%. I am sure there are many other businesses with similar stories if not so extreme.

I would expect that there was a pretty steady rise in pay up until 2008 and that since then average earnings have not really changed that much or have only recovered the drop they suffered.

I can't find figures for 1996 but this article gives figures for 1995 and 2000 that dispute your figure.

Average earnings in UK (London in brackets)
1980: £5,720 (£6,604)
1985: £8,890 (£10,660)
1990: £13,760(£17,470)
1995: £17,470 (£22,830)
1999: £20,800(£29,210)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/593477.stm

Looking back the warnings about a housing bust to come look rather bemusing.

HYUFD said:

anothernick said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1003011035077468162

I'm sure this is right. Many of today's political leaders will suffer the same fate as their counterparts in the 1930s. MacDonald, Baldwin and Chamberlain were popular and respected in their day but with hindsight it became clear that they had ignored the dangers of fascism and pretended that there was an easy way out - appeasement would lead to peace in our time. History has judged them accordingly. The architects of Brexit - Cameron, Johnson and May - will be similarly condemned.

Surely on that comparison it was appeasers who were the problem and only Churchill who was willing to take on the Nazis, so Blair, Brown and Cameron and maybe May were the appeasers and the equivalents of Macdonald, Baldwin and Chamberlain and Boris or Mogg is the Churchill willing to stand up to the EU?

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

surby said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

surby said:

I don't read the Torygraph.

OK. What was the average or median pay in , say, 1968 and 2018 ? What was the MPs pay in 1968 and 2018 ?

An MP is a potential Cabinet Minister or even PM. Do we really want them to be average ?

An Irish TD [ 120 of them in a country of 5 million ] earns € 93599. The Taoiseach earns aroung € 190,000.

Can't find the figures for 1968 but in 1996 the average earnings was £23,000 a year and MPs pay was £34,000 a year.

Today the average earnings has risen to £27,000 a year and MPs pay has risen to £76,000 a year.

So since 1996 Average pay has gone up by 17% and MPs pay has gone up by 123%.

You are having me on. So the average earnings went up 17% in 22 years ? I thought it went up 2.8% in the last year alone.

Ok. How does it compare to inflation ?

I am not sure why you think this is wrong. I know the public sector complain about having lower than inflation payrises or no payrises but in the private sector in the last decade real cuts in pay have been very common if not the norm. In the oil industry since 2014 the average staff pay has dropped by almost 20%. Contractor rates are down by an average of 40%. I am sure there are many other businesses with similar stories if not so extreme.

I would expect that there was a pretty steady rise in pay up until 2008 and that since then average earnings have not really changed that much or have only recovered the drop they suffered.

I can't find figures for 1996 but this article gives figures for 1995 and 2000 that dispute your figure.

Average earnings in UK (London in brackets)
1980: £5,720 (£6,604)
1985: £8,890 (£10,660)
1990: £13,760(£17,470)
1995: £17,470 (£22,830)
1999: £20,800(£29,210)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/593477.stm

Looking back the warnings about a housing bust to come look rather bemusing.

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

So given the likelihood of no deal, at least according to this forum, at what point do I start stocking up on loo paper, non-perishable foods etc and turning the garden over to vegetable growing?

Seriously, if this becomes real doesn’t any responsible government have to ask for a suspension of Article 50 or a pause? Civil unrest is certainly not in our interest and I can’t imagine the EU would be best pleased either.

Why do you think the EU care? They’ve tolerated worse elsewhere in the EU.

Cyclefree said:

So given the likelihood of no deal, at least according to this forum, at what point do I start stocking up on loo paper, non-perishable foods etc and turning the garden over to vegetable growing?

Seriously, if this becomes real doesn’t any responsible government have to ask for a suspension of Article 50 or a pause? Civil unrest is certainly not in our interest and I can’t imagine the EU would be best pleased either.

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

So given the likelihood of no deal, at least according to this forum, at what point do I start stocking up on loo paper, non-perishable foods etc and turning the garden over to vegetable growing?

Seriously, if this becomes real doesn’t any responsible government have to ask for a suspension of Article 50 or a pause? Civil unrest is certainly not in our interest and I can’t imagine the EU would be best pleased either.

Why do you think the EU care? They’ve tolerated worse elsewhere in the EU.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

So given the likelihood of no deal, at least according to this forum, at what point do I start stocking up on loo paper, non-perishable foods etc and turning the garden over to vegetable growing?

Seriously, if this becomes real doesn’t any responsible government have to ask for a suspension of Article 50 or a pause? Civil unrest is certainly not in our interest and I can’t imagine the EU would be best pleased either.

No suspension/pause of Article 50, remember Farage will don his khaki and grab his rifle in that scenario.

I've already made plans to move to Canada if we get no deal.

Amusingly I'm getting ads asking me to move to France.

With a lot of prominent Leavers happy to use anti-Semitic tropes and/or defend Tommy Robinson as a paragon of free speech and justice for the first time in my life I feel like an outsider in my own country.

We all know if we get no deal they'll blame the rootless cosmopolitan and the Muslim rather than themselves for selling the public a pup.

anothernick said:

HYUFD said:

anothernick said:

HYUFD said:

anothernick said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1003011035077468162

I'm sure this is right. Many of today's political leaders will suffer the same fate as their counterparts in the 1930s. MacDonald, Baldwin and Chamberlain were popular and respected in their day but with hindsight it became clear that they had ignored the dangers of fascism and pretended that there was an easy way out - appeasement would lead to peace in our time. History has judged them accordingly. The architects of Brexit - Cameron, Johnson and May - will be similarly condemned.

Surely on that comparison it was appeasers who were the problem and only Churchill who was willing to take on the Nazis, so Blair, Brown and Cameron and maybe May were the appeasers and the equivalents of Macdonald, Baldwin and Chamberlain and Boris or Mogg is the Churchill willing to stand up to the EU?

But I don't think many people believe that the EU is a modern incarnation of Nazi Germany. The danger that Cameron & Co ignored was Brexit - they pretended that leaving the EU was a realistic proposition and gave credence to the Farages and Rees Moggs even though they knew (or should have known) that this could ultimately be disastrous for the nation. Just as the leaders of the 1930s gave credence to appeasement,even though in its later stages it was clear that this was not going to prevent war.

I would not be so sure if you read many of the Leaver rants pre referendum the EU was all a German plot to take over Europe in peacetime rather than war and certainly the Greek and Italian populist revolts against the EU have all been based on the Eurozone being set up to benefit the German economy while Southern Europe is hit by austerity, low growth and high unemployment.

It was the British people who voted for Brexit after decades of concessions of more and more powers and laws and regulations to be made in Brussels and a lack of control over our own borders.

The British people voted for an imaginary and unattainable world in which they got all the benefits of EU membership and none of the costs. They were effectively told that 2 plus 2 could be made to equal 5 merely by voting for it to be so.

Cyclefree said:

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

So given the likelihood of no deal, at least according to this forum, at what point do I start stocking up on loo paper, non-perishable foods etc and turning the garden over to vegetable growing?

Seriously, if this becomes real doesn’t any responsible government have to ask for a suspension of Article 50 or a pause? Civil unrest is certainly not in our interest and I can’t imagine the EU would be best pleased either.

Why do you think the EU care? They’ve tolerated worse elsewhere in the EU.

Have they?

One reason they might care is because of the large numbers of EU citizens in the country. Another might be the effect on financial markets. A third might be common humanity. And a fourth might be that it does not reflect well on them if the EU and Britain are not able to come to some arrangement which then results in there being no food in Britain (even if our government seems, as far as I can tell, to be making a total hash of things).

Personally, I think if it got to this stage we would need to rethink matters here.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

So given the likelihood of no deal, at least according to this forum, at what point do I start stocking up on loo paper, non-perishable foods etc and turning the garden over to vegetable growing?

Seriously, if this becomes real doesn’t any responsible government have to ask for a suspension of Article 50 or a pause? Civil unrest is certainly not in our interest and I can’t imagine the EU would be best pleased either.

No suspension/pause of Article 50, remember Farage will don his khaki and grab his rifle in that scenario.

I've already made plans to move to Canada if we get no deal.

Amusingly I'm getting ads asking me to move to France.

With a lot of prominent Leavers happy to use anti-Semitic tropes and/or defend Tommy Robinson as a paragon of free speech and justice for the first time in my life I feel like an outsider in my own country.

We all know if we get no deal they'll blame the rootless cosmopolitan and the Muslim rather than themselves for selling the public a pup.

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

So given the likelihood of no deal, at least according to this forum, at what point do I start stocking up on loo paper, non-perishable foods etc and turning the garden over to vegetable growing?

Seriously, if this becomes real doesn’t any responsible government have to ask for a suspension of Article 50 or a pause? Civil unrest is certainly not in our interest and I can’t imagine the EU would be best pleased either.

Why do you think the EU care? They’ve tolerated worse elsewhere in the EU.

Have they?

One reason they might care is because of the large numbers of EU citizens in the country. Another might be the effect on financial markets. A third might be common humanity. And a fourth might be that it does not reflect well on them if the EU and Britain are not able to come to some arrangement which then results in there being no food in Britain (even if our government seems, as far as I can tell, to be making a total hash of things).

Personally, I think if it got to this stage we would need to rethink matters here.

Bit late for a rethink. I’ve come to the conclusion that were now fucked if we leave and fucked if we remain. There is no good outcome. Just a chance to find the least bad.

Hope I’m wrong. But question the competence of the current govt or opposition. Bad things don’t happen, until they do.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

So given the likelihood of no deal, at least according to this forum, at what point do I start stocking up on loo paper, non-perishable foods etc and turning the garden over to vegetable growing?

Seriously, if this becomes real doesn’t any responsible government have to ask for a suspension of Article 50 or a pause? Civil unrest is certainly not in our interest and I can’t imagine the EU would be best pleased either.

No suspension/pause of Article 50, remember Farage will don his khaki and grab his rifle in that scenario.

I've already made plans to move to Canada if we get no deal.

Amusingly I'm getting ads asking me to move to France.

With a lot of prominent Leavers happy to use anti-Semitic tropes and/or defend Tommy Robinson as a paragon of free speech and justice for the first time in my life I feel like an outsider in my own country.

We all know if we get no deal they'll blame the rootless cosmopolitan and the Muslim rather than themselves for selling the public a pup.

I missed prominent Leavers defending Tommy Robinson. Who on earth has done that?

Gerard Batten (current leader of UKIP) and Lord Pearson to name but two.

The former is a fan of Tommy Robinson and hosted events with him.

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/1000722509518528512

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/1001086094971195392

Sadly Gerard Batten has yet to reply to me after I asked him why he was focussing on Sajid Javid and not David Gauke, the man responsible for the Justice and Prison system in the country.

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cyclefree said:

So given the likelihood of no deal, at least according to this forum, at what point do I start stocking up on loo paper, non-perishable foods etc and turning the garden over to vegetable growing?

Seriously, if this becomes real doesn’t any responsible government have to ask for a suspension of Article 50 or a pause? Civil unrest is certainly not in our interest and I can’t imagine the EU would be best pleased either.

No suspension/pause of Article 50, remember Farage will don his khaki and grab his rifle in that scenario.

I've already made plans to move to Canada if we get no deal.

Amusingly I'm getting ads asking me to move to France.

With a lot of prominent Leavers happy to use anti-Semitic tropes and/or defend Tommy Robinson as a paragon of free speech and justice for the first time in my life I feel like an outsider in my own country.

We all know if we get no deal they'll blame the rootless cosmopolitan and the Muslim rather than themselves for selling the public a pup.

I missed prominent Leavers defending Tommy Robinson. Who on earth has done that?

Gerard Batten (current leader of UKIP) and Lord Pearson to name but two.

The former is a fan of Tommy Robinson and hosted events with him.

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/1000722509518528512

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/1001086094971195392

Sadly Gerard Batten has yet to reply to me after I asked him why he was focussing on Sajid Javid and not David Gauke, the man responsible for the Justice and Prison system in the country.

Thanks. I would not classify anyone from UKIP as “prominent” unless “arses” was the following word. Pretty disgraceful all the same.

RoyalBlue said:

I don’t think MPs or ministers are paid nearly enough. While it’s true that being an MP does not need to be a full time job, you need to offer a decent package to get good quality people into Westminster who can then go on to be ministers.

I’m sure I read in Johnson’s biography of Churchill that his salary as PM would be the equivalent of about £500k today.

Cyclefree said:

archer101au said:

Cyclefree said:

anothernick said:

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

So given the likelihood of no deal, at least according to this forum, at what point do I start stocking up on loo paper, non-perishable foods etc and turning the garden over to vegetable growing?

Seriously, if this becomes real doesn’t any responsible government have to ask for a suspension of Article 50 or a pause? Civil unrest is certainly not in our interest and I can’t imagine the EU would be best pleased either.

Why do you think the EU care? They’ve tolerated worse elsewhere in the EU.

The EU wants to ensure that the UK is seen to suffer through its decision to leave. Even more so given recent developments in Italy. They are not going to save us from the consequences of our own stupidity.

To the extent of having starving Britons or people dying from lack of medecines? Really?

Wanting to make clear that non-membership is less favourable than membership is one thing. Having a country which hosts the main financial centre in Europe descend into anarchy is quite another.

The level of delusion is incredible. Nobody argues that WTO Brexit at this stage will not cause disruption, but the meltdown of society? Are you really that naive that you believe this stuff?

Virtually every other country in the World manages its own borders, sets its own tariffs and manages imports and customs arrangements, most of it under WTO rules, including agricultural goods. Yet if the UK try to do it, the end of days will result.

Project Fear has morphed into Project Psychosis.

I’m not normally accused of being naive. I’m merely commenting on the ST article based on a government analysis which suggests that it would take no more than 2 weeks for such a stage to be reached. If it is I wonder what the consequences are likely to be.

Personally, I’d have thought that we’d see concerns being expressed long before that date.

archer101au said:

Cyclefree said:

anothernick said:

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

So given the likelihood of no deal, at least according to this forum, at what point do I start stocking up on loo paper, non-perishable foods etc and turning the garden over to vegetable growing?

Seriously, if this becomes real doesn’t any responsible government have to ask for a suspension of Article 50 or a pause? Civil unrest is certainly not in our interest and I can’t imagine the EU would be best pleased either.

Why do you think the EU care? They’ve tolerated worse elsewhere in the EU.

The EU wants to ensure that the UK is seen to suffer through its decision to leave. Even more so given recent developments in Italy. They are not going to save us from the consequences of our own stupidity.

To the extent of having starving Britons or people dying from lack of medecines? Really?

Wanting to make clear that non-membership is less favourable than membership is one thing. Having a country which hosts the main financial centre in Europe descend into anarchy is quite another.

The level of delusion is incredible. Nobody argues that WTO Brexit at this stage will not cause disruption, but the meltdown of society? Are you really that naive that you believe this stuff?

Virtually every other country in the World manages its own borders, sets its own tariffs and manages imports and customs arrangements, most of it under WTO rules, including agricultural goods. Yet if the UK try to do it, the end of days will result.

Project Fear has morphed into Project Psychosis.

ExiledInScotland said:

archer101au said:

Cyclefree said:

anothernick said:

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

So given the likelihood of no deal, at least according to this forum, at what point do I start stocking up on loo paper, non-perishable foods etc and turning the garden over to vegetable growing?

Seriously, if this becomes real doesn’t any responsible government have to ask for a suspension of Article 50 or a pause? Civil unrest is certainly not in our interest and I can’t imagine the EU would be best pleased either.

Why do you think the EU care? They’ve tolerated worse elsewhere in the EU.

The EU wants to ensure that the UK is seen to suffer through its decision to leave. Even more so given recent developments in Italy. They are not going to save us from the consequences of our own stupidity.

To the extent of having starving Britons or people dying from lack of medecines? Really?

Wanting to make clear that non-membership is less favourable than membership is one thing. Having a country which hosts the main financial centre in Europe descend into anarchy is quite another.

The level of delusion is incredible. Nobody argues that WTO Brexit at this stage will not cause disruption, but the meltdown of society? Are you really that naive that you believe this stuff?

Virtually every other country in the World manages its own borders, sets its own tariffs and manages imports and customs arrangements, most of it under WTO rules, including agricultural goods. Yet if the UK try to do it, the end of days will result.

Project Fear has morphed into Project Psychosis.

I am currently reading Michael Lewis's book "The Undoing Project" which I strongly recommend.

I had not understand how the human mind perceives utility and value - and how important regret is to the process of rationalising decision making and forecasting. It is clear that the Brexit result and ongoing process cannot be viewed objectively by many of us because of the interplay of our identity, financial concerns and view of history. For me the lesson of the book (so far) is that simple post-referendum rationalisation of what happened or is happening, who to blame for what elements we don't like and forecasting of future state is effectively pointless. We all have insufficient information, there is way too much uncertainty and we all need to realise that scaring each other with this is actually beneath all of us. Keep calm and carry on, people.

Cyclefree said:

HYUFD said:

Cyclefree said:

anothernick said:

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

So given the likelihood of no deal, at least according to this forum, at what point do I start stocking up on loo paper, non-perishable foods etc and turning the garden over to vegetable growing?

Seriously, if this becomes real doesn’t any responsible government have to ask for a suspension of Article 50 or a pause? Civil unrest is certainly not in our interest and I can’t imagine the EU would be best pleased either.

Why do you think the EU care? They’ve tolerated worse elsewhere in the EU.

The EU wants to ensure that the UK is seen to suffer through its decision to leave. Even more so given recent developments in Italy. They are not going to save us from the consequences of our own stupidity.

To the extent of having starving Britons or people dying from lack of medecines? Really?

Wanting to make clear that non-membership is less favourable than membership is one thing. Having a country which hosts the main financial centre in Europe descend into anarchy is quite another.

That is just absurd hyperbole, even on WTO terms we are not going to run completely out of food and medicine nor descend into anarchy even if we have to pay tariffs on Brie, Mercedes and Cabinet Sauvignon and in turn EU consumers have to pay tariffs on UK goods

If food starts running out - or even if there are shortages, queues, delays at Dover etc - I would not be as sanguine as you about the prospect of there being no civil unrest. Look how quickly we ended up with riots in London a few years back.

The government really does need to face down the loons who are preventing a transition deal. Whether you’re for or against Brexit, it is undeniable that disentangling a 40-year plus relationship will take time - and we need that time.

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

archer101au said:

Cyclefree said:

anothernick said:

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

So given the likelihood of no deal, at least according to this forum, at what point do I start stocking up on loo paper, non-perishable foods etc and turning the garden over to vegetable growing?

Seriously, if this becomes real doesn’t any responsible government have to ask for a suspension of Article 50 or a pause? Civil unrest is certainly not in our interest and I can’t imagine the EU would be best pleased either.

Why do you think the EU care? They’ve tolerated worse elsewhere in the EU.

The EU wants to ensure that the UK is seen to suffer through its decision to leave. Even more so given recent developments in Italy. They are not going to save us from the consequences of our own stupidity.

To the extent of having starving Britons or people dying from lack of medecines? Really?

Wanting to make clear that non-membership is less favourable than membership is one thing. Having a country which hosts the main financial centre in Europe descend into anarchy is quite another.

The level of delusion is incredible. Nobody argues that WTO Brexit at this stage will not cause disruption, but the meltdown of society? Are you really that naive that you believe this stuff?

Virtually every other country in the World manages its own borders, sets its own tariffs and manages imports and customs arrangements, most of it under WTO rules, including agricultural goods. Yet if the UK try to do it, the end of days will result.

Project Fear has morphed into Project Psychosis.

I’m not normally accused of being naive. I’m merely commenting on the ST article based on a government analysis which suggests that it would take no more than 2 weeks for such a stage to be reached. If it is I wonder what the consequences are likely to be.

Personally, I’d have thought that we’d see concerns being expressed long before that date.

Like the concerns being expressed now?