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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As more Labour MPs call for a referendum on the deal I’m not changing my betting position that there won’t be another referendum
INDEPENDENT DIGITAL: Labour MPs tell Corbyn to back new referendum #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/uljMBCIYx3
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Edited extra bit: link to my little early Canada ramble:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/06/early-canada-ramble.html
Edit: ah, it's just appeared.
Should the CJEU rule that Article 50 isn't revocable it all becomes a bit moot.
I’m not convinced. If the Commons rejects the deal, a second referendum will be almost irresistible for May. The Brexiteers might want a general election, but I don’t think they’ll get one.
This was a last minute thread written at a cold Headingley.
Winners of the fancy dress contest are the chaps dressed up as David Warner replete with sandpaper.
I wonder if opposing the triple crown wishful thinking is profitable long term
Is there any significance to the picture?
or would it be Lave with bad deal and stay out Vs Leave and then ask to come beak in?
As I understand it there is no Legal right for the UK to change its mind. now the EU bosses, may find a way of ignoring the law, and letting the UK stay, I suspect they would quite like that, but it will be a strange referendum to get encourage people to vote to ignore the law
Fantastic Derby btw!
What would the Millibands and Blairs of this world do if and when the public show their displeasure at being asked the same question again, and vote 60/40 for Leave ?
The summit is on 18 October. May brings it to parliament later the same month and it's then voted down. Let's also assume that the referendum has to be held by mid-March, to give a little time to clear up the admin afterwards. Let's also suppose a four-week campaign, starting in mid-February.
All of these dates are pushing things to the limit and even then, it only gives three and a half months to pass the legislation, and for the campaign organisations to be created and registered with the Electoral Commission.
That timescale might, just about, be possible. In reality though, it wouldn't work like that. If parliament voted down the deal in October, either May would go back and try to renegotiate and come up with something else at the December summit, or she'd resign, there'd be a Tory leadership election and someone else would go to Brussels. Either way, the time would not be used putting in place the legally-essential framework for a referendum - and without that, it couldn't happen.
Do people advocating a NZ style slashing of tariffs really know what they’re talking about?
Our unilateral tariff (and non-tariff barrier) reduction of the mid-80s had the effect of destroying various domestic industries. These were damned at the time as inefficient and uncompetitive and there were few tears shed - unless of course you happened to lose your job.
On the plus side - clothing, electronics, and cars immediately became much cheaper. We were able to import all sorts of tat from China and still do. Our largest national retail chain - “The Warehouse” - expanded massively in this era.
On the downside, the price drop obviously didn’t extend to any quality, branded goods. In fact, quality is quite hard to find. The abundance of tat crowds out local producers, and the small size of our domestic market means it’s often not worth bothering with for quality international brands.
And, we have a persistent trade deficit - one of the largest in the OECD - and pretty much produce nothing apart from dairy and lamb, which admittedly we do very well.
Britain’s problems, which include a large trade deficit of its own, and struggling, ex-industrial regions, would not be solved by unilateral tariff reduction. There would presumably be an income effect - as in NZ - but it would make the underlying problems worse, not better.
This mantra that a majority of Labour constituencies are Leave is a red herring used by Brexiteers to console themselves. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas
It doesn't mean a majority of Labour voters are Leave - we know they aren't. - they are Remainers. The Leave/Remain split isn't the most important determinant of voting intention. Kate Hoey, an ardent Leaver, got a majority of 11,000 in Vauxhall which was 78% Remain!
It''s going to be the same establishment politicians being paraded around telling people that the world is going to collapse if we leave the EU, based on expert forecasts and not much more than that. It's just going to be exactly the same thing again, with probably the same result.
Certain obsessives on here - who shall be nameless - fantasise about a referendum with a choice to 'leave with the deal that this incompetent clown Davis has just about eked out or remain as we are.' And let's face it, it's these sort of people are the ones agitating for this referendum. But that's a fantasy even John Dorian or Walter Mitty would hesitate at. We voted to leave. If the options are to leave on terms, or not leave, it then becomes about respecting democracy and leave would almost certainly win by a large margin.
However, there is a very compelling argument that an option to remain is in itself is a dishonest choice for two reasons:
(1) we can't realistically hope to resume the status quo ante. We kicked Europe, hard, in the balls (it's one reason I think that the Commission is behaving like a bunch of third rate mindless jackasses, although the fact they are a bunch of third rate mindless jackasses probably has something to do with it as well). They are not going to keep cutting us slack with opt outs on Schengen, the euro and the rebate if we go crawling back admitting we were mistaken (in that, unusually, I agree with William Glenn of this parish).
(2) It's by no means clear we can revoke A50 and therefore the referendum would be based on a false premise. Hard to campaign for something you can't deliver (assuming for the moment that Corbyn wouldn't exert himself for Remain).
So the options should be to leave with the deal or leave on WTO. But that wouldn't suit the backers of a new referendum because, as we can see by stripping out the above points, their real motive is to try and get the result reversed. So suddenly for this to go ahead at all, we're staring at all three options on the ballot paper.
Now is anyone here willing to tell me that under those circumstances any option other than 'Leave to WTO', which surely would command 40%+ support, would not brutally spank the other two into submission? Which would be utterly, utterly disastrous.
This is why I am at a loss to understand why people think a further referendum - even if one wasn't as difficult as educating Ken Livingstone in Holocaust studies - would be a good idea. I can only conclude they haven't thought through the implications.
It wouldn’t be neat, but it would happen.
If I was to have a steam loco, I'd buy the hulk of 9F 92219 or 92245 (heck, why not both?) , restore it as a Franco-Crosti and paint it in North Staffs Madder Lake just to give the rivet counters heart attacks ...
(*) Which I won't. Not only would Mrs J frown, but my neighbours wouldn't like it - especially as it would take over not only my garden, but the next two along as well!
(There was a gent in Nottinghamshire who had an ex-Barry steam locomotive in his front garden...)
And now everyone who is not a utter railway nut has just disappeared ...
good analysis and I agree with much of it, however I'm not convinced that 'Leave to WTO' would get 40% + in a 3 way contest.
For what its worth it would get my vote and I am confidant it would be the best for the economic situation in the UK. however, experience of talking to people about it would suggest that I am in a small group on this one.
A relevant fact is that much of the Corbyn scepticism among potential supporters overlaps with strong pro-EU feeling. If voting Labour meant staying in the EU, it would certainly put off some existing voters but it would potentially win over others who don't fancy Corbyn at all, on the basis that they'll all survive a term of Corbyn government but if we leave the EU it might be for good. It really depends on a shift in popular mood, and clearly there is unease about how Brexit is going, even among hardened Brexiteers.
And up to ten thousand posts in four years - that's a bit worrying.
In my last post I erred when I said a man from Nottinghamshire had a steam locomotive in his front garden.
It was actually his back garden:
http://standard4.com/76084inthebeginning.pdf
Those who thought otherwise were mad to do so. That is why our negotiations must lead to our Versailles.
Of course the EU would let us in.
A way would be found.
We deserve a vote because we can now see more clearly what Brexit entails.
Arguments against are from those who are quite happy with the status quo, and don’t mind taking the rest of the country over Niagara in a barrel with them.
(Or alternatively, wait till August, but that might not sound very magnanimous.)
And if you do really want a tip - for free - frustrating though it is to be on the losing side and worry that people have made a poor choice, it's much easier for everyone especially you if you just accept it and move on. We've lost. We're leaving. It's the hope that kills you. Don't let it.
And now if you'll excuse me, I have work to do.
The behaviour of the EU thus far has been pour encourager les autres, it seems far more likely that the beatings will continue until morale improves.
Then, the wearisome march to integration will resume.
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1002959116829065217?s=21
It really isn't Brexit!
Even in London though more people voted leave than voted for the current Mayor - even after second preferences. Not everyone in London thinks the same on the issue either.
Mr. Glenn, ha. Like that would get implemented. Just what fines have been levied against the German car manufacturers caught up in the emissions scandal?
And that's before we get onto the wonders of the space cannon, the enormo-haddock, the octo-lemur, or the small fleet of Death Stars.
Edited extra bit: although that is English, so perhaps it doesn't count.
https://twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1002451246777819136?s=21
This detracts from the underlying validity of her point.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5798499/Proud-parents-video-fives-dressed-jihadis-storming-Israeli-building.html
If we get to that point, it will be a completely new vote, and "we said Leave and we meant it" won't gain much traction when it means accepting a concrete deal.
http://www.onlondon.co.uk/london-is-becoming-a-private-renting-city-again/
' But buying a first home in the South Hams remains out of reach for many local people, with average house prices still around 14 times average salaries. '
http://www.dartmouth-today.co.uk/article.cfm?id=103855&headline=Two South Hams coastal towns among top 10 most expensive&sectionIs=news&searchyear=2016
The EU commission don't seem to recognise this....
Brexit will be reversed once “Take Back Control” is widely seen to be a joke.
The way we disagree with things in this country is to take the piss out it.
There isn't a fray Mrs May is capable of rising above. And certainly not this one.
Still if you want xenophobic lies how about this one from a London Remainer MP:
' Drug gangs controlled by Eastern European criminals are fuelling the rising tide of violent crime in London, a Labour MP has claimed. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43653291