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David Davis’ new plan for ‘buffer zone’ at Irish border to break Brexit deadlock branded ‘nonsense’ by the DUP https://t.co/mn3flKomCl
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And fifthly...0
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Good afternoon, everyone.0
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Surely the test for any sensible idea in Northern Ireland is the DUP opposing it.0
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Whatever deal May gets, she won’t be able to get it through the Commons.0
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I would suggest that one of the reasons why populist parties are surging is because electorates feel they have been lied to by the traditional parties of government.blueblue said:
If it's a choice being that and Corbyn, damned right I would. Win the goddamned majority first, then deal with the hard details later. The electorate at the moment is infinitely forgiving of failure to fulfil unrealistic promises, but utterly intolerant of the failure to make them in the first place!rcs1000 said:
The problem with most of the populist parties is that they believe in the magic money tree, and they see simple solutions to complex problems.blueblue said:Do you think the Conservatives ever look at the populist parties either seizing or challenging for power across the world and think "Hey, we'll have some of that - campaigning on outside-the-box policies that are actually popular. We might even win that mythical landslide, at last!"
No, me neither. We'll just have them throw away a golden opportunity by being boring and unimaginative in the most populist age in decades, and letting the British left seize that initiative themselves. Well played, chaps.
Do you want the Tories to lie to the electorate, and say - for example - that cutting taxes 10% and increasing spending 10% will pay for itself through the magic of... errr... magic.
But then again, Mrs May got terribly punished for reminding people that the government cannot afford - with an ageing population leading to an ever worsening dependency ratio - to spend unlimited amounts on peoples' end of life care.0 -
England are letting this test slip out of their fingers.0
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That, I think, is the nub of it. There is no Brexit deal that a hung parliament would accept. And the result will either be the cliff edge or an indefinite extension of the A50 deadline.RoyalBlue said:Whatever deal May gets, she won’t be able to get it through the Commons.
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We don't really know what would have happened if she'd stuck to her guns instead of that embarrassing "nothing has changed" u-turn.rcs1000 said:But then again, Mrs May got terribly punished for reminding people that the government cannot afford - with an ageing population leading to an ever worsening dependency ratio - to spend unlimited amounts on peoples' end of life care.
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Erm no. We were assured on this very here pb that the plan would save people money and protect their savings, so the problem was Mrs May's reluctance to explain or debate this.rcs1000 said:
I would suggest that one of the reasons why populist parties are surging is because electorates feel they have been lied to by the traditional parties of government.blueblue said:
If it's a choice being that and Corbyn, damned right I would. Win the goddamned majority first, then deal with the hard details later. The electorate at the moment is infinitely forgiving of failure to fulfil unrealistic promises, but utterly intolerant of the failure to make them in the first place!rcs1000 said:
The problem with most of the populist parties is that they believe in the magic money tree, and they see simple solutions to complex problems.blueblue said:Do you think the Conservatives ever look at the populist parties either seizing or challenging for power across the world and think "Hey, we'll have some of that - campaigning on outside-the-box policies that are actually popular. We might even win that mythical landslide, at last!"
No, me neither. We'll just have them throw away a golden opportunity by being boring and unimaginative in the most populist age in decades, and letting the British left seize that initiative themselves. Well played, chaps.
Do you want the Tories to lie to the electorate, and say - for example - that cutting taxes 10% and increasing spending 10% will pay for itself through the magic of... errr... magic.
But then again, Mrs May got terribly punished for reminding people that the government cannot afford - with an ageing population leading to an ever worsening dependency ratio - to spend unlimited amounts on peoples' end of life care.
And I do not recall there being anything in the Tory manifesto about the costs of its flagship policy, Brexit. Or its financial benefits. Or anything apart from its being smooth and orderly (repeated half a dozen times).0 -
It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.0
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This is why David Cameron should have held a royal commission to establish post-Brexit scenarios before calling the bloody referendum. And why Theresa May should have done the same before triggering Article 50.0
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I think the critical thing is what position the likes of Davis, Fox and Johnson can credibly take in the hours and days after a defeat on the deal. They have three choices:anothernick said:
That, I think, is the nub of it. There is no Brexit deal that a hung parliament would accept. And the result will either be the cliff edge or an indefinite extension of the A50 deadline.RoyalBlue said:Whatever deal May gets, she won’t be able to get it through the Commons.
- Fight on to defend the deal as the best available (how do they square that with their pre-referendum promises?)
- Disown the deal and therefore the government
- Reverse ferret on Brexit entirely0 -
What happens to the cows that wander outside the 10 mile zone?
Will they have to be geo-fenced with shock collars?0 -
That would mean the PM has failed to consult the party she relies on to prop up her government. What could possibly go wrong?AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
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Good points. Either of those would have made the whole situation a lot better. And a referendum question with more than two options would have been an improvement too.DecrepitJohnL said:This is why David Cameron should have held a royal commission to establish post-Brexit scenarios before calling the bloody referendum. And why Theresa May should have done the same before triggering Article 50.
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Agreed. But that begs the question of what comes next, and why May would want to time the erasure of her red lines to be so soon.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
If she's planning a second referendum it would make sense.0 -
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EXCLUSIVE: Bar Staff At Jezfest Will Work Unpaid https://order-order.com/2018/06/01/bar-staff-will-work-free-labour-live/ …0
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Do you think there's a majority in the Commons for Referendum 2?williamglenn said:
Agreed. But that begs the question of what comes next, and why May would want to time the erasure of her red lines to be so soon.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
If she's planning a second referendum it would make sense.
Could she even get it done before March?0 -
If May backed it, Corbyn couldn't get away with opposing it so therefore there would be a majority.rkrkrk said:
Do you think there's a majority in the Commons for Referendum 2?williamglenn said:
Agreed. But that begs the question of what comes next, and why May would want to time the erasure of her red lines to be so soon.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
If she's planning a second referendum it would make sense.
Could she even get it done before March?
I think we could get an A50 extension if needed to allow time for it. If it were held in the run up to the European elections it would bring into focus that we would be choosing between having a say and having no say.0 -
I think the answer to the timing question could be that the the EU has threatened to announce at the June summit that a transitional deal is off unless May has resolved the customs union question before it takes place.williamglenn said:
Agreed. But that begs the question of what comes next, and why May would want to time the erasure of her red lines to be so soon.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
If she's planning a second referendum it would make sense.0 -
Agree completely: both the UK and the EU have damaged themselves in the Brexit process.CarlottaVance said:
They have seen Brexit as a one-off transaction, and have determined to nickle and dime us. Their failure to realise that our long-term strategic interests align, and that we should be close allies will cost them dear.
Our error was to fail to realise that the EU felt like a dumped girlfriend. Publicly gloating that our exit would cause "the whole house of cards to collapse" was unlikely to put the EU in a frame of mind to smooth our exit.
We have, belatedly, realised our errors. I do not believe the EU has (yet) realised theirs.0 -
If May backed it - she'd face a leadership challenge immediately, I can't imagine the likes of Gove could back her if one of the referendum options was staying in.williamglenn said:
If May backed it, Corbyn couldn't get away with opposing it so therefore there would be a majority.rkrkrk said:
Do you think there's a majority in the Commons for Referendum 2?williamglenn said:
Agreed. But that begs the question of what comes next, and why May would want to time the erasure of her red lines to be so soon.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
If she's planning a second referendum it would make sense.
Could she even get it done before March?
I think we could get an A50 extension if needed to allow time for it. If it were held in the run up to the European elections it would bring into focus that we would be choosing between having a say and having no say.0 -
Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
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Populist parties are surging because people want to believe simple solutions are available to very complex problems. Will Brexit solve Britains's problems? Would Italy leaving the EU solve their problems? No,but it's easy for a certain type of unscrupulous politician to pretend they will. Delivering on that promise is where the problems start.rcs1000 said:
I would suggest that one of the reasons why populist parties are surging is because electorates feel they have been lied to by the traditional parties of government.blueblue said:
If it's a choice being that and Corbyn, damned right I would. Win the goddamned majority first, then deal with the hard details later. The electorate at the moment is infinitely forgiving of failure to fulfil unrealistic promises, but utterly intolerant of the failure to make them in the first place!rcs1000 said:
The problem with most of the populist parties is that they believe in the magic money tree, and they see simple solutions to complex problems.blueblue said:Do you think the Conservatives ever look at the populist parties either seizing or challenging for power across the world and think "Hey, we'll have some of that - campaigning on outside-the-box policies that are actually popular. We might even win that mythical landslide, at last!"
No, me neither. We'll just have them throw away a golden opportunity by being boring and unimaginative in the most populist age in decades, and letting the British left seize that initiative themselves. Well played, chaps.
Do you want the Tories to lie to the electorate, and say - for example - that cutting taxes 10% and increasing spending 10% will pay for itself through the magic of... errr... magic.
But then again, Mrs May got terribly punished for reminding people that the government cannot afford - with an ageing population leading to an ever worsening dependency ratio - to spend unlimited amounts on peoples' end of life care.
We will never address the "end of life care" issue because nobody wants to face reality and there will always be politicians who pretend we don't have to.0 -
Death sentence:Bromptonaut said:What happens to the cows that wander outside the 10 mile zone?
Will they have to be geo-fenced with shock collars?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/pregnant-illegal-immigrant-cow-executed-126296790 -
She could face down a leadership challenge and win, and if it were already clear that the only Brexit she could get through the Commons would involve a customs union, many Brexiteers would reluctantly accept that it's inevitable anyway.rkrkrk said:
If May backed it - she'd face a leadership challenge immediately, I can't imagine the likes of Gove could back her if one of the referendum options was staying in.williamglenn said:
If May backed it, Corbyn couldn't get away with opposing it so therefore there would be a majority.rkrkrk said:
Do you think there's a majority in the Commons for Referendum 2?williamglenn said:
Agreed. But that begs the question of what comes next, and why May would want to time the erasure of her red lines to be so soon.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
If she's planning a second referendum it would make sense.
Could she even get it done before March?
I think we could get an A50 extension if needed to allow time for it. If it were held in the run up to the European elections it would bring into focus that we would be choosing between having a say and having no say.0 -
England making a minor mess of things at Headingley. Pakistan were 79 for 7, now 155 for 8.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/438668760 -
"No deal is better than a bad deal." T Maywilliamglenn said:
She could face down a leadership challenge and win, and if it were already clear that the only Brexit she could get through the Commons would involve a customs union, many Brexiteers would reluctantly accept that it's inevitable anyway.rkrkrk said:
If May backed it - she'd face a leadership challenge immediately, I can't imagine the likes of Gove could back her if one of the referendum options was staying in.williamglenn said:
If May backed it, Corbyn couldn't get away with opposing it so therefore there would be a majority.rkrkrk said:
Do you think there's a majority in the Commons for Referendum 2?williamglenn said:
Agreed. But that begs the question of what comes next, and why May would want to time the erasure of her red lines to be so soon.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
If she's planning a second referendum it would make sense.
Could she even get it done before March?
I think we could get an A50 extension if needed to allow time for it. If it were held in the run up to the European elections it would bring into focus that we would be choosing between having a say and having no say.0 -
156-9AndyJS said:England making a minor mess of things at Headingley. Pakistan were 79 for 7, now 155 for 8.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/438668760 -
Good work.AndyJS said:England making a minor mess of things at Headingley. Pakistan were 79 for 7, now 155 for 8.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/43866876
Pakistan 156 for 9.0 -
I don’t see any evidence that Leavers have learned this lesson. Only this week all the usual suspects were pronouncing the imminent demise of the EU over Italy.rcs1000 said:
Agree completely: both the UK and the EU have damaged themselves in the Brexit process.CarlottaVance said:
They have seen Brexit as a one-off transaction, and have determined to nickle and dime us. Their failure to realise that our long-term strategic interests align, and that we should be close allies will cost them dear.
Our error was to fail to realise that the EU felt like a dumped girlfriend. Publicly gloating that our exit would cause "the whole house of cards to collapse" was unlikely to put the EU in a frame of mind to smooth our exit.
We have, belatedly, realised our errors. I do not believe the EU has (yet) realised theirs.0 -
No Brexit is the easiest variant of no deal.David_Evershed said:
"No deal is better than a bad deal." T Maywilliamglenn said:
She could face down a leadership challenge and win, and if it were already clear that the only Brexit she could get through the Commons would involve a customs union, many Brexiteers would reluctantly accept that it's inevitable anyway.rkrkrk said:
If May backed it - she'd face a leadership challenge immediately, I can't imagine the likes of Gove could back her if one of the referendum options was staying in.williamglenn said:
If May backed it, Corbyn couldn't get away with opposing it so therefore there would be a majority.rkrkrk said:
Do you think there's a majority in the Commons for Referendum 2?williamglenn said:
Agreed. But that begs the question of what comes next, and why May would want to time the erasure of her red lines to be so soon.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
If she's planning a second referendum it would make sense.
Could she even get it done before March?
I think we could get an A50 extension if needed to allow time for it. If it were held in the run up to the European elections it would bring into focus that we would be choosing between having a say and having no say.0 -
Not to mentionDavid_Evershed said:
"No deal is better than a bad deal." T Maywilliamglenn said:
She could face down a leadership challenge and win, and if it were already clear that the only Brexit she could get through the Commons would involve a customs union, many Brexiteers would reluctantly accept that it's inevitable anyway.rkrkrk said:
If May backed it - she'd face a leadership challenge immediately, I can't imagine the likes of Gove could back her if one of the referendum options was staying in.williamglenn said:
If May backed it, Corbyn couldn't get away with opposing it so therefore there would be a majority.rkrkrk said:
Do you think there's a majority in the Commons for Referendum 2?williamglenn said:
Agreed. But that begs the question of what comes next, and why May would want to time the erasure of her red lines to be so soon.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
If she's planning a second referendum it would make sense.
Could she even get it done before March?
I think we could get an A50 extension if needed to allow time for it. If it were held in the run up to the European elections it would bring into focus that we would be choosing between having a say and having no say.
"there will not be a general election"
"EU citizens arriving after March 2019 will not have automatic right of settlement"
"the ECJ will have no jurisdiction in the UK after Brexit"
"no British PM could ever sign up to anything which proposed a customs border in the Irish sea"
May's commitments rarely survive more than a day or two.0 -
If the Treasury could collect £1 for every prediction of the demise of the EU/Euro that has been made since 1957 it could easily afford the legendary £350m weekly payment to the NHS.AlastairMeeks said:
I don’t see any evidence that Leavers have learned this lesson. Only this week all the usual suspects were pronouncing the imminent demise of the EU over Italy.rcs1000 said:
Agree completely: both the UK and the EU have damaged themselves in the Brexit process.CarlottaVance said:
They have seen Brexit as a one-off transaction, and have determined to nickle and dime us. Their failure to realise that our long-term strategic interests align, and that we should be close allies will cost them dear.
Our error was to fail to realise that the EU felt like a dumped girlfriend. Publicly gloating that our exit would cause "the whole house of cards to collapse" was unlikely to put the EU in a frame of mind to smooth our exit.
We have, belatedly, realised our errors. I do not believe the EU has (yet) realised theirs.0 -
Working for free drinks perhaps. Are they unaware of the Truck Acts?felix said:EXCLUSIVE: Bar Staff At Jezfest Will Work Unpaid https://order-order.com/2018/06/01/bar-staff-will-work-free-labour-live/ …
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This is completely wrong. The EU's strategy has always been focused on the long term, from a position of understanding that a) the UK would always need the EU for as long as the EU exists, and b) anything decided during the Brexit process could create a precedent or playbook that could be used at some point in the future in circumstances that may not be so relatively benign.rcs1000 said:
Agree completely: both the UK and the EU have damaged themselves in the Brexit process.CarlottaVance said:
They have seen Brexit as a one-off transaction, and have determined to nickle and dime us. Their failure to realise that our long-term strategic interests align, and that we should be close allies will cost them dear.
Our error was to fail to realise that the EU felt like a dumped girlfriend. Publicly gloating that our exit would cause "the whole house of cards to collapse" was unlikely to put the EU in a frame of mind to smooth our exit.
We have, belatedly, realised our errors. I do not believe the EU has (yet) realised theirs.
The mistake that Brexiteers made was in treating the Brexit vote as final and not merely a point in time. The fact that Britain's long-term strategic interests align with those of the EU is precisely why they don't need to bend over backwards to accommodate Brexit. In the end, we have no other viable strategic option.0 -
I wonder if Angie is regretting going for that 4th term?
Minority government
Lowest polls in ages
Immigration scandal
Diesel Scandal
Italy
Spain
Brexit
Trump
Hard to see much upside for her0 -
We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.David_Evershed said:
Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
Indeed, the correct negotiating strategy would have been to have talked softly (i.e., been nice about our neighbours in public) but carried a big stick (i.e., to have been clearly prepared to go for no deal, if need be).
Instead we went for insulting them, while doing nothing to prepare for No Deal Brexit.0 -
The Euro won't collapse imminently. But you just watch how many blind-eyes are turned to the Italians when they break EU economic rules and go hard after the Romanian immigrants. Anything to keep their mess of a project together.AlastairMeeks said:
I don’t see any evidence that Leavers have learned this lesson. Only this week all the usual suspects were pronouncing the imminent demise of the EU over Italy.rcs1000 said:
Agree completely: both the UK and the EU have damaged themselves in the Brexit process.CarlottaVance said:
They have seen Brexit as a one-off transaction, and have determined to nickle and dime us. Their failure to realise that our long-term strategic interests align, and that we should be close allies will cost them dear.
Our error was to fail to realise that the EU felt like a dumped girlfriend. Publicly gloating that our exit would cause "the whole house of cards to collapse" was unlikely to put the EU in a frame of mind to smooth our exit.
We have, belatedly, realised our errors. I do not believe the EU has (yet) realised theirs.
Meanwhile, Europhiles will point with glee at every Brexit technicality.0 -
Where do you put the infrastructure for the border with Ireland? It's an absolutely absurd suggestion that would have simply brought all the fundamental problems with Brexit to a head much quicker, in a more febrile domestic political environment.rcs1000 said:
We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.David_Evershed said:
Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
Populist, heal thyself.0 -
She's got the 100th anniversary of the end of WW1 coming up.Alanbrooke said:I wonder if Angie is regretting going for that 4th term?
Minority government
Lowest polls in ages
Immigration scandal
Diesel Scandal
Italy
Spain
Brexit
Trump
Hard to see much upside for her0 -
Edit - DeletdAlanbrooke said:I wonder if Angie is regretting going for that 4th term?
Minority government
Lowest polls in ages
Immigration scandal
Diesel Scandal
Italy
Spain
Brexit
Trump
Hard to see much upside for her0 -
Rolf Degen on political echo chambers in the modern family:
https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/10025351108755087370 -
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As I said at 8am this morning. DD's plan would not make lunchtime.
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The Italians have certainly chosen a very good moment to go off the reservation.Fenster said:
The Euro won't collapse imminently. But you just watch how many blind-eyes are turned to the Italians when they break EU economic rules and go hard after the Romanian immigrants. Anything to keep their mess of a project together.AlastairMeeks said:
I don’t see any evidence that Leavers have learned this lesson. Only this week all the usual suspects were pronouncing the imminent demise of the EU over Italy.rcs1000 said:
Agree completely: both the UK and the EU have damaged themselves in the Brexit process.CarlottaVance said:
They have seen Brexit as a one-off transaction, and have determined to nickle and dime us. Their failure to realise that our long-term strategic interests align, and that we should be close allies will cost them dear.
Our error was to fail to realise that the EU felt like a dumped girlfriend. Publicly gloating that our exit would cause "the whole house of cards to collapse" was unlikely to put the EU in a frame of mind to smooth our exit.
We have, belatedly, realised our errors. I do not believe the EU has (yet) realised theirs.
Meanwhile, Europhiles will point with glee at every Brexit technicality.0 -
Spain?Alanbrooke said:I wonder if Angie is regretting going for that 4th term?
Minority government
Lowest polls in ages
Immigration scandal
Diesel Scandal
Italy
Spain
Brexit
Trump
Hard to see much upside for her
They've swapped one pro-EU PM for another. And the party leading in the polls there is even more pro-EU.0 -
Why would anybody volunteer? And why would an organisation have such a weird business model for commercial festivals? It’s hardly the free local village fete organised by the WI.felix said:EXCLUSIVE: Bar Staff At Jezfest Will Work Unpaid order-order.com/2018/06/01/bar-staff-will-work-free-labour-live/ …
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total guff as everwilliamglenn said:
Where do you put the infrastructure for the border with Ireland? It's an absolutely absurd suggestion that would have simply brought all the fundamental problems with Brexit to a head much quicker, in a more febrile domestic political environment.rcs1000 said:
We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.David_Evershed said:
Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
Populist, heal thyself.
the majority of trade passes over a handful of roads, the rest is just a simple enforcement matter. The vast majority of companies will comply with the law because that's what honest people do.
The crooks will try to exploit the border, but then theyre doing that today something that doesn't appear to worry you.0 -
lets see how the currency markets reactrcs1000 said:
Spain?Alanbrooke said:I wonder if Angie is regretting going for that 4th term?
Minority government
Lowest polls in ages
Immigration scandal
Diesel Scandal
Italy
Spain
Brexit
Trump
Hard to see much upside for her
They've swapped one pro-EU PM for another. And the party leading in the polls there is even more pro-EU.0 -
As I have said several times, Brexit isn’t a policy, it’s a joke.0
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Well at least it detracts from their interns not getting paid.felix said:EXCLUSIVE: Bar Staff At Jezfest Will Work Unpaid https://order-order.com/2018/06/01/bar-staff-will-work-free-labour-live/ …
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Re the cricket at Headingley, the way the ball was moving around earlier I said 175 would be a competitive score.
Pakistan have 174.0 -
I thought the Italians were more concerned with the illegal immigrants from North Africa and Albania?Fenster said:
The Euro won't collapse imminently. But you just watch how many blind-eyes are turned to the Italians when they break EU economic rules and go hard after the Romanian immigrants. Anything to keep their mess of a project together.AlastairMeeks said:
I don’t see any evidence that Leavers have learned this lesson. Only this week all the usual suspects were pronouncing the imminent demise of the EU over Italy.rcs1000 said:
Agree completely: both the UK and the EU have damaged themselves in the Brexit process.CarlottaVance said:
They have seen Brexit as a one-off transaction, and have determined to nickle and dime us. Their failure to realise that our long-term strategic interests align, and that we should be close allies will cost them dear.
Our error was to fail to realise that the EU felt like a dumped girlfriend. Publicly gloating that our exit would cause "the whole house of cards to collapse" was unlikely to put the EU in a frame of mind to smooth our exit.
We have, belatedly, realised our errors. I do not believe the EU has (yet) realised theirs.
Meanwhile, Europhiles will point with glee at every Brexit technicality.0 -
That doesn't make any difference. Think of the politics of the UK building just one customs post on a road between Ireland and Northern Ireland simply in order to attempt to blackmail the EU. On top of that, @rcs1000 is suggesting doing this while Obama was still President and the full weight of US diplomacy would have been behind Ireland and the EU's position.Alanbrooke said:
total guff as everwilliamglenn said:
Where do you put the infrastructure for the border with Ireland? It's an absolutely absurd suggestion that would have simply brought all the fundamental problems with Brexit to a head much quicker, in a more febrile domestic political environment.rcs1000 said:
We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.David_Evershed said:
Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
Populist, heal thyself.
the majority of trade passes over a handful of roads, the rest is just a simple enforcement matter. The vast majority of companies will comply with the law because that's what honest people do.
The crooks will try to exploit the border, but then theyre doing that today something that doesn't appear to worry you.0 -
The EU has three key priorities in the Brexit talks. In order of importance (to the EU) they arewilliamglenn said:
This is completely wrong. The EU's strategy has always been focused on the long term, from a position of understanding that a) the UK would always need the EU for as long as the EU exists, and b) anything decided during the Brexit process could create a precedent or playbook that could be used at some point in the future in circumstances that may not be so relatively benign.rcs1000 said:
Agree completely: both the UK and the EU have damaged themselves in the Brexit process.CarlottaVance said:
They have seen Brexit as a one-off transaction, and have determined to nickle and dime us. Their failure to realise that our long-term strategic interests align, and that we should be close allies will cost them dear.
Our error was to fail to realise that the EU felt like a dumped girlfriend. Publicly gloating that our exit would cause "the whole house of cards to collapse" was unlikely to put the EU in a frame of mind to smooth our exit.
We have, belatedly, realised our errors. I do not believe the EU has (yet) realised theirs.
The mistake that Brexiteers made was in treating the Brexit vote as final and not merely a point in time. The fact that Britain's long-term strategic interests align with those of the EU is precisely why they don't need to bend over backwards to accommodate Brexit. In the end, we have no other viable strategic option.
1) Maintain a united front
2) Ensure that the UK is seen to take an economic and political hit as a consequence of leaving and
3) Agree a "good deal" (for the EU)
They have already achieved nos 1 and 2 far more successfully than many people expected, not least because of the obvious incompetence and disunity on the part of the UK government. They have not achieved 3, but 3 is less important to them than 2 - if the UK cannot offer a coherent position they will not be able to do a deal. This will have negative consequences for both sides, but they will be much more negative for the UK than the EU.0 -
I think rcs is correct on hiswilliamglenn said:
That doesn't make any difference. Think of the politics of the UK building just one customs post on a road between Ireland and Northern Ireland simply in order to attempt to blackmail the EU. On top of that, @rcs1000 is suggesting doing this while Obama was still President and the full weight of US diplomacy would have been behind Ireland and the EU's position.Alanbrooke said:
total guff as everwilliamglenn said:
Where do you put the infrastructure for the border with Ireland? It's an absolutely absurd suggestion that would have simply brought all the fundamental problems with Brexit to a head much quicker, in a more febrile domestic political environment.rcs1000 said:
We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.David_Evershed said:
Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
Populist, heal thyself.
the majority of trade passes over a handful of roads, the rest is just a simple enforcement matter. The vast majority of companies will comply with the law because that's what honest people do.
The crooks will try to exploit the border, but then theyre doing that today something that doesn't appear to worry you.0 -
The EU have done a good job of framing any new "HARD" border as a problem from the Uk.Alanbrooke said:
total guff as everwilliamglenn said:
Where do you put the infrastructure for the border with Ireland? It's an absolutely absurd suggestion that would have simply brought all the fundamental problems with Brexit to a head much quicker, in a more febrile domestic political environment.rcs1000 said:
We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.David_Evershed said:
Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
Populist, heal thyself.
the majority of trade passes over a handful of roads, the rest is just a simple enforcement matter. The vast majority of companies will comply with the law because that's what honest people do.
The crooks will try to exploit the border, but then theyre doing that today something that doesn't appear to worry you.
DD should be reiterating that the Uk has no plans for anything bar the existing cameras -
"EU build a fence if you want to... !" should be the Sun headline he's aiming for.0 -
The currency markets, I would venture, are more interested inAlanbrooke said:
lets see how the currency markets reactrcs1000 said:
Spain?Alanbrooke said:I wonder if Angie is regretting going for that 4th term?
Minority government
Lowest polls in ages
Immigration scandal
Diesel Scandal
Italy
Spain
Brexit
Trump
Hard to see much upside for her
They've swapped one pro-EU PM for another. And the party leading in the polls there is even more pro-EU.
- the direction of US interest rates
- a potential trade war
and
- Italy
I don't see Spain as a particular issue for the EU or Germany right now.0 -
if Italy gets away with it I cant see Spain still accepting austerityrcs1000 said:
The currency markets, I would venture, are more interested inAlanbrooke said:
lets see how the currency markets reactrcs1000 said:
Spain?Alanbrooke said:I wonder if Angie is regretting going for that 4th term?
Minority government
Lowest polls in ages
Immigration scandal
Diesel Scandal
Italy
Spain
Brexit
Trump
Hard to see much upside for her
They've swapped one pro-EU PM for another. And the party leading in the polls there is even more pro-EU.
- the direction of US interest rates
- a potential trade war
and
- Italy
I don't see Spain as a particular issue for the EU or Germany right now.0 -
Both, apparently. I'd read they were struggling to accommodate 600,000 low skilled from Romania, a few hundred thousand from Albania and 750,000 displaced North Africans.rcs1000 said:
I thought the Italians were more concerned with the illegal immigrants from North Africa and Albania?Fenster said:
The Euro won't collapse imminently. But you just watch how many blind-eyes are turned to the Italians when they break EU economic rules and go hard after the Romanian immigrants. Anything to keep their mess of a project together.AlastairMeeks said:
I don’t see any evidence that Leavers have learned this lesson. Only this week all the usual suspects were pronouncing the imminent demise of the EU over Italy.rcs1000 said:
Agree completely: both the UK and the EU have damaged themselves in the Brexit process.CarlottaVance said:
They have seen Brexit as a one-off transaction, and have determined to nickle and dime us. Their failure to realise that our long-term strategic interests align, and that we should be close allies will cost them dear.
Our error was to fail to realise that the EU felt like a dumped girlfriend. Publicly gloating that our exit would cause "the whole house of cards to collapse" was unlikely to put the EU in a frame of mind to smooth our exit.
We have, belatedly, realised our errors. I do not believe the EU has (yet) realised theirs.
Meanwhile, Europhiles will point with glee at every Brexit technicality.
Taking the 'xenophobia' out of it, it must be a tough ask for a country to deal with such an influx. Particularly when the southern half of Italy is a relatively poor area of Europe.
You can understand the anger at the EU over its failure to help. Incidentally, it's British and Italian ships doing most of the rescue work in the Med.0 -
If only David Davis had been able to talk beforehand to the DUP members who are supporting the minority government.0
-
-
The Italians have every right to be furious with the EU in general, and Germany in particular, regarding North African migrants.Fenster said:
Both, apparently. I'd read they were struggling to accommodate 600,000 low skilled from Romania, a few hundred thousand from Albania and 750,000 displaced North Africans.rcs1000 said:
I thought the Italians were more concerned with the illegal immigrants from North Africa and Albania?Fenster said:
The Euro won't collapse imminently. But you just watch how many blind-eyes are turned to the Italians when they break EU economic rules and go hard after the Romanian immigrants. Anything to keep their mess of a project together.AlastairMeeks said:
I don’t see any evidence that Leavers have learned this lesson. Only this week all the usual suspects were pronouncing the imminent demise of the EU over Italy.rcs1000 said:
Agree completely: both the UK and the EU have damaged themselves in the Brexit process.CarlottaVance said:
They have seen Brexit as a one-off transaction, and have determined to nickle and dime us. Their failure to realise that our long-term strategic interests align, and that we should be close allies will cost them dear.
Our error was to fail to realise that the EU felt like a dumped girlfriend. Publicly gloating that our exit would cause "the whole house of cards to collapse" was unlikely to put the EU in a frame of mind to smooth our exit.
We have, belatedly, realised our errors. I do not believe the EU has (yet) realised theirs.
Meanwhile, Europhiles will point with glee at every Brexit technicality.
Taking the 'xenophobia' out of it, it must be a tough ask for a country to deal with such an influx. Particularly when the southern half of Italy is a relatively poor area of Europe.
You can understand the anger at the EU over its failure to help. Incidentally, it's British and Italian ships doing most of the rescue work in the Med.
Germany effectively left Italy with a huge problem.
That being said, I do find it interesting that Spain - which has a much healthier economy than Italy - manages to do a much better job of discouraging illegal immigration from North Africa.0 -
In other cheery news today - this tweet (but read the entire thread) explains Trump's worldview.
https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/10025021393678377020 -
More like a form of Absurdist theatre.Sandpit said:
Well at least it detracts from their interns not getting paid.felix said:EXCLUSIVE: Bar Staff At Jezfest Will Work Unpaid https://order-order.com/2018/06/01/bar-staff-will-work-free-labour-live/ …
0 -
Utter rubbish. You are a highly intelligent guy and the son of Michael ‘The Don’ Smithson, but you sir clearly know nothing about Irish politics. Given a large proportion of the population of Ireland refuses to recognise Northern Ireland as an entity and considers the British to be illegally occupying a nation state, putting up any border infrastructure is likely to lead to a regression to the Troubles of the 1980s. You and your fellow Brexiteers should have thought about this before you launched your deranged project.rcs1000 said:
We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.David_Evershed said:
Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
0 -
0
-
Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?
"As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech
... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.0 -
Hear! Hear!Anazina said:
Utter rubbish. You are a highly intelligent guy and the son of Michael ‘The Don’ Smithson, but you sir clearly know nothing about Irish politics. Given a large proportion of the population of Ireland refuses to recognise Northern Ireland as an entity and considers the British to be illegally occupying a nation state, putting up any border infrastructure is likely to lead to a regression to the Troubles of the 1980s. You and your fellow Brexiteers should have thought about this before you launched your deranged project.rcs1000 said:
We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.David_Evershed said:
Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
0 -
No surrender to the DUP?logical_song said:If only David Davis had been able to talk beforehand to the DUP members who are supporting the minority government.
A bunch of deranged bigoted orangemen are running the country.
Brexit is a joke. A very bad, unfunny joke.0 -
@RCS
The Italians have every right to be furious with the EU in general, and Germany in particular, regarding North African migrants.
Germany effectively left Italy with a huge problem.
That being said, I do find it interesting that Spain - which has a much healthier economy than Italy - manages to do a much better job of discouraging illegal immigration from North Africa.
.........................................................................................
That is a very good point.
As an aside on human displacement, I'm a South Wales valley boy. Back in the mid 90s we had about a dozen young Bosnian men placed here. They didn't look in great shape and were housed in the old children's home in our village. The council gave them stamps (not money) to spend in the shops. It didn't take long before the older schoolkids sussed that the Bosnians could buy fags with their stamps (they weren't allowed to buy booze) which they could then sell to us schoolkids. We'd get fags at half price and they'd get converted cash. A splendid little racket.
It wasn't long before parents and villagers were up in arms about it, but I always marvelled at the power of survival instinct. Those poor boys couldn't speak a word of English, were penniless in an alien land, but within days had managed to set up a nice bit of business.
Us scally schoolkids were gutted when they were moved on
0 -
Hence why there wont be a border.logical_song said:Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?
"As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech
... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.
The Uk just needs to call the EU's bluff.0 -
It's almost as though Cameron never thought he'd lose the referendum, so didn't plan for it and now Theresa doesn't think we'll actually leave and so isn't planning for it.rottenborough said:0 -
Of course there won't be a border. The bluff is leaving the single market and customs union.TGOHF said:
Hence why there wont be a border.logical_song said:Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?
"As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech
... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.
The Uk just needs to call the EU's bluff.0 -
Lovely stuff from our resident left wingers - hate poured down on a whole community.Anazina said:logical_song said:If only David Davis had been able to talk beforehand to the DUP members who are supporting the minority government.
A bunch of deranged bigoted orangemen are running the country.0 -
How does that work?TGOHF said:
Hence why there wont be a border.logical_song said:Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?
"As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech
... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.
The Uk just needs to call the EU's bluff.0 -
If Home Rule has gone ahead I have no doubt that all Ireland would still be part of the U.K. It’s certainly something to ponder in these unsettled times.Anazina said:
No surrender to the DUP?logical_song said:If only David Davis had been able to talk beforehand to the DUP members who are supporting the minority government.
A bunch of deranged bigoted orangemen are running the country.
Brexit is a joke. A very bad, unfunny joke.
0 -
Mercedes has ten US plants.eek said:In other cheery news today - this tweet (but read the entire thread) explains Trump's worldview.
https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1002502139367837702
There's a certain irony that Trump has singled out the German car maker that is probably most committed to manufacturing in the US.0 -
A fair analysis of DUP attitudes to catholics, fair play.TGOHF said:
Hate poured down on a whole community.Anazina said:logical_song said:If only David Davis had been able to talk beforehand to the DUP members who are supporting the minority government.
A bunch of deranged bigoted orangemen are running the country.
0 -
Ah whataboutery - the debating stance of the clueless.Anazina said:
A fair analysis of DUP attitudes to catholics, fair play.TGOHF said:
Hate poured down on a whole community.Anazina said:logical_song said:If only David Davis had been able to talk beforehand to the DUP members who are supporting the minority government.
A bunch of deranged bigoted orangemen are running the country.0 -
Do you know anything about Ireland's history?RoyalBlue said:
If Home Rule has gone ahead I have no doubt that all Ireland would still be part of the U.K. It’s certainly something to ponder in these unsettled times.Anazina said:
No surrender to the DUP?logical_song said:If only David Davis had been able to talk beforehand to the DUP members who are supporting the minority government.
A bunch of deranged bigoted orangemen are running the country.
Brexit is a joke. A very bad, unfunny joke.0 -
Clearly the answer is for them to licence the Trump brand and flatten out the top part of their logo so it looks like a T. A win-win, and he'd happily wipe out their competition.rcs1000 said:
Mercedes has ten US plants.eek said:In other cheery news today - this tweet (but read the entire thread) explains Trump's worldview.
https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1002502139367837702
There's a certain irony that Trump has singled out the German car maker that is probably most committed to manufacturing in the US.0 -
Just don't build a hard border between Ulster and ROI.logical_song said:
How does that work?TGOHF said:
Hence why there wont be a border.logical_song said:Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?
"As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech
... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.
The Uk just needs to call the EU's bluff.
If the EU wants to blow up its balance of trade advantage by blocking Calais then lets watch the lorries pile up across France.0 -
People who scream about how technology will fix a certain problem tend to be either not understand technology, or work for companies that want to make and sell the technology. Sadly, all too often the latter are snake-oil salesmen.logical_song said:Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?
"As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech
... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.
Witness all the current hysteria over how driverless cars will make all truck drivers redundant in ten years (c) SeanT. Here's a hint: no, they won't.
Therefore, if someone offers a technological solution to a problem, make sure that it exists and has been proven. If it does not exist, be very, very wary: it *may* work, but probably won't. And if it does, expect to pay much more than they initially promise.0 -
If we diverge from the EU won't that make RoI / NI border a great place for smugglers?TGOHF said:
Just don't build a hard border between Ulster and ROI.logical_song said:
How does that work?TGOHF said:
Hence why there wont be a border.logical_song said:Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?
"As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech
... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.
The Uk just needs to call the EU's bluff.
If the EU wants to blow up its balance of trade advantage by blocking Calais then lets watch the lorries pile up across France.0 -
Stay loyalTGOHF said:
Ah whataboutery - the debating stance of the clueless.Anazina said:
A fair analysis of DUP attitudes to catholics, fair play.TGOHF said:
Hate poured down on a whole community.Anazina said:logical_song said:If only David Davis had been able to talk beforehand to the DUP members who are supporting the minority government.
A bunch of deranged bigoted orangemen are running the country.
https://goo.gl/images/B7tqoc0 -
What's DD playing at? Presumably the plan is to float an idea so ludicrous that thereafter remaining in the Customs Union seems the very encapsulation practicality and good sense. Trump's trade war has helped, making it all look a dark and friendless world out there. Theresa has looked at the Tory Leavers and realized she has to suck the lifeblood out of them.0
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Your starting point on PB is that the PB Leavers are entirely ignorant of it.logical_song said:
Do you know anything about Ireland's history?RoyalBlue said:
If Home Rule has gone ahead I have no doubt that all Ireland would still be part of the U.K. It’s certainly something to ponder in these unsettled times.Anazina said:
No surrender to the DUP?logical_song said:If only David Davis had been able to talk beforehand to the DUP members who are supporting the minority government.
A bunch of deranged bigoted orangemen are running the country.
Brexit is a joke. A very bad, unfunny joke.0 -
No worse than it is already, with petrol, alcohol, cigarettes all taxed differently, as well as different VAT rates on different products.logical_song said:
If we diverge from the EU won't that make RoI / NI border a great place for smugglers?TGOHF said:
Just don't build a hard border between Ulster and ROI.logical_song said:
How does that work?TGOHF said:
Hence why there wont be a border.logical_song said:Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?
"As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech
... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.
The Uk just needs to call the EU's bluff.
If the EU wants to blow up its balance of trade advantage by blocking Calais then lets watch the lorries pile up across France.0 -
It would also be a breach of an international treaty (the GFA has the status of a treaty) on the part of the UK. How could the UK then convince the EU that it would abide by the terms of the withdrawal treaty?Anazina said:
Utter rubbish. You are a highly intelligent guy and the son of Michael ‘The Don’ Smithson, but you sir clearly know nothing about Irish politics. Given a large proportion of the population of Ireland refuses to recognise Northern Ireland as an entity and considers the British to be illegally occupying a nation state, putting up any border infrastructure is likely to lead to a regression to the Troubles of the 1980s. You and your fellow Brexiteers should have thought about this before you launched your deranged project.rcs1000 said:
We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.David_Evershed said:
Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.AlastairMeeks said:It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.
0 -
Mr. Song, indeed, the complacency of Cameron and dithering (whether intentional to run down the clock, or not) of May is unimpressive.
Mr. rpjs, et al., if you believe terrorists ought to determine our policy, that's up to you. Personally, I'm not a fan of appeasing murderers, nor of those who seek to provoke as much discontent as possible to try and bolster their own political perspective.0 -
Yes, that was a silly example to choose. I’d guess that only the high end S-class and AMG models sold in the US are made in Germany, Mercedes is quite likely to be a net exporter of cars from the US.rcs1000 said:
Mercedes has ten US plants.eek said:In other cheery news today - this tweet (but read the entire thread) explains Trump's worldview.
https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1002502139367837702
There's a certain irony that Trump has singled out the German car maker that is probably most committed to manufacturing in the US.0 -
To a certain extent all transactions are a con:eek said:In other cheery news today - this tweet (but read the entire thread) explains Trump's worldview.
https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1002502139367837702
https://mobile.twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/10025027472064225290
This discussion has been closed.