I hold the opposite view: I think if the Republicans hold the House (and they will almost certainly increase their position in the Senate), then Obamacare will likely end up getting repealed.
That would be the true nail in the coffin for Trump 2020.
On the other hand, a Democratic House of Representatives gives him an excuse for not achieving things.
If it's sufficiently Democratic, they'll impeach him. Which ought to see him over the line comfortably.
The Senate, though, will have a large Republican majority, so impeachment is likely to be a damp squib.
Oh, there's virtually no chance of conviction. But it will take up a good 3 months - Clinton was formally impeached on Dec 19th 1998 (in the wake of the Nov 3rd mid-terms, which weren't actually good for Gingrich and the Reps, partly because they'd been banging on about impeachment) and the verdicts didn't come until Feb 12th 1999.
I hold the opposite view: I think if the Republicans hold the House (and they will almost certainly increase their position in the Senate), then Obamacare will likely end up getting repealed.
That would be the true nail in the coffin for Trump 2020.
On the other hand, a Democratic House of Representatives gives him an excuse for not achieving things.
If it's sufficiently Democratic, they'll impeach him. Which ought to see him over the line comfortably.
The Senate, though, will have a large Republican majority, so impeachment is likely to be a damp squib.
The mechanism of impeachment is an interesting one. If he’s impeached by the House it probably means that the Senate do pretty much nothing else for a year except talk about Trump, before finding him not guilty. We saw this with Bill Clinton two decades ago.
The question is then whether this affects the President positively or negatively in the states where it matters for him to be re-elected. There has to be a danger for the Democrats that impeaching Trump for reasons that relate to events that happened before he took office could massively backfire.
Why is the Sun being used as the channel here? Why not use a grownups' newspaper?
Answer that and the answer to the question "who by?" might pop out. Can it really be David Davis?
"Special economic zone", "double hatting", "Northern Ireland can trade with both GB and RoI". Stop, there's the rub: that's means a border along the Irish Sea. The following sentence is hilarious if you like that kind of humour:
"Mr Davis hopes his plan will unite Theresa May’s feuding Cabinet Brexit committee".
Is Davis getting ready to leave and sign a contract for his memoirs?
I see Deutsche Bank's share price is looking increasingly sickly.
I wonder whether Germany will use the new bail in rules and force losses on depositors or bail it out with taxpayer money. By EU law they must do the former, however, I don't think the government will allow ordinary depositors to lose any of their money.
Deutsche has lots of subordinated capital that will take the hit long before the depositors. Only about a third of the firm's liabilities are deposits. (EUR500bn out of EUR1.4trn)
It depends on the size of the bailout needed.
I come back to London for an interview and all the trains are cancelled.
This would never happen in Switzerland!
Someone should regulate them...
Funnily enough I have just completed some work for them and have just been sent an email confirming what I need to send to them to get paid. I will be doing this pronto!
German regulators are some of the weakest in Europe. At least one other regulator has said to me that they consider DB unregulatable, because the Germans simply aren't up to it.
It's long but brilliant essay, and well worth a read. Perversely, the politicians on the council who have been routine vilified come out looking better than all the national politicians, and many of the 'campaigners' who oppose them.
I look forward to the results of the inquiry with interest; I guess many campaigners are practising the word 'whitewash'.
That really is an exceptionally good article. The issues of "the narrative" that the media leapt upon show a huge problem with the news media in this country (and, quite probably, not just this country). In effect, they've managed to create the "fake news" industry, because why should anyone else worry about honesty in news reporting, when the "proper" media appear not to?
That may seem like a harsh statement, considering that the proper media try to ensure they build their narratives with at least a grain of truth somewhere in there and try to avoid explicit untruths, but that nowadays just seems to be them playing their own personal game with how to mislead people while following a set of "rules".
There's a great word: "paltering". It means deliberately misleading without explicitly lying at any point. We all know how to do this - you omit parts, you say something close to what they expect, you cherry-pick out of context. Those doing it tend to think it's not anywhere as bad as explicitly lying; those on the receiving end disagree: http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2016-59847-001
The media work on making up stories around what's actually happened. The prime purpose of these is to fit their agenda or cause outrage; the reality of the circumstances is all but irrelevant. Why else are the Guardian and Daily Mail so different - they operate in the same world and reality? They're all professional palterers, and look aghast at the professional liars that have turned up. Unfortunately we on the receiving end quite rightly see them as all professional misleaders and in the same category.
One thing that really angered me about Grenfell was the media reporting the claims that the authorities were lying about the number of people who had died. The media do this thing whereby they say "we're just reporting what someone is claiming - that is the news itself."
Can you imagine what that would have been like for the forensic officers having to do the work? It's a tough enough job without the media spreading rumours about your integrity.
Why is the Sun being used as the channel here? Why not use a grownups' newspaper?
Answer that and the answer to the question "who by?" might pop out. Can it really be David Davis?
"Special economic zone", "double hatting", "Northern Ireland can trade with both GB and RoI". Stop, there's the rub: that's means a border along the Irish Sea. The following sentence is hilarious if you like that kind of humour:
"Mr Davis hopes his plan will unite Theresa May’s feuding Cabinet Brexit committee".
Is Davis getting ready to leave and sign a contract for his memoirs?
It’s bizarre. Most Sun readers won’t understand the story and even fewer are likely to care.
Shades of Yes Minister. Sun readers don’t care who regulates trade in NI as long as she’s got...
I hold the opposite view: I think if the Republicans hold the House (and they will almost certainly increase their position in the Senate), then Obamacare will likely end up getting repealed.
That would be the true nail in the coffin for Trump 2020.
On the other hand, a Democratic House of Representatives gives him an excuse for not achieving things.
If it's sufficiently Democratic, they'll impeach him. Which ought to see him over the line comfortably.
The Senate, though, will have a large Republican majority, so impeachment is likely to be a damp squib.
Oh, there's virtually no chance of conviction. But it will take up a good 3 months - Clinton was formally impeached on Dec 19th 1998 (in the wake of the Nov 3rd mid-terms, which weren't actually good for Gingrich and the Reps, partly because they'd been banging on about impeachment) and the verdicts didn't come until Feb 12th 1999.
Let's see. I think it may be a mistake to assume this all plays out as it did under Clinton. Clinton had decent approval ratings, Trump doesn't. Trump has made plenty of enemies among Senators.
It's Donald Trump taking the piss for no other reason than he can. He's having fun and why not? He's the clown son of a multi billionaire who has tired of everything else and is now enjoying seeing how far he can make the world gyrate as he pulls the strings.
He's loving it! It reminds me of the film 'Rollerball'. Life had become so shallow and meaningless that they decided to make the national sport more exciting. They drop all the rules. Ironically it was shot in '75 but it was set in the future. 2018 to be exact!
Trunp is a billionaire his father was a millionaire
Except the $100m+ he inherited from his father, if tracked to the S&P 500, is equivalent to Donald's current net worth. So I guess they are roughly the same. And Mr Trump hasn't really added anything.
Give him a chance, he's got at least 2 more years of presidential stealing ahead of him.
I get the impression a lot of people around him are making a lot more money than he is out of this farrago.
Trump is minting it. His properties are being used all the time and he charges full market rate. The secret service have had to rent out a full floor of Trump Tower.
That's the least of it, and this is still in the "answerable to the voters" part of his term. He gets a good 3 months, and possibly 4 years on top of that, where there's basically no incentive whatsoever for him to moderate his kleptomania.
On top of this, the US has an exceptionally shit constitution, so he has some ridiculous, unchecked powers, like the ability to pardon convicted criminals. Think how much you could make out of that, if you really put your mind to monetizing it...
Why is the Sun being used as the channel here? Why not use a grownups' newspaper?
Answer that and the answer to the question "who by?" might pop out. Can it really be David Davis?
"Special economic zone", "double hatting", "Northern Ireland can trade with both GB and RoI". Stop, there's the rub: that's means a border along the Irish Sea. The following sentence is hilarious if you like that kind of humour:
"Mr Davis hopes his plan will unite Theresa May’s feuding Cabinet Brexit committee".
Is Davis getting ready to leave and sign a contract for his memoirs?
Leave aside the politics for a moment -- The Sun is reinventing itself, at least online, as a serious newspaper of record (as its sister paper, The Times, has it).
It's Donald Trump taking the piss for no other reason than he can. He's having fun and why not? He's the clown son of a multi billionaire who has tired of everything else and is now enjoying seeing how far he can make the world gyrate as he pulls the strings.
He's loving it! It reminds me of the film 'Rollerball'. Life had become so shallow and meaningless that they decided to make the national sport more exciting. They drop all the rules. Ironically it was shot in '75 but it was set in the future. 2018 to be exact!
Trunp is a billionaire his father was a millionaire
Except the $100m+ he inherited from his father, if tracked to the S&P 500, is equivalent to Donald's current net worth. So I guess they are roughly the same. And Mr Trump hasn't really added anything.
Give him a chance, he's got at least 2 more years of presidential stealing ahead of him.
I get the impression a lot of people around him are making a lot more money than he is out of this farrago.
Trump is minting it. His properties are being used all the time and he charges full market rate. The secret service have had to rent out a full floor of Trump Tower.
That's the least of it, and this is still in the "answerable to the voters" part of his term. He gets a good 3 months, and possibly 4 years on top of that, where there's basically no incentive whatsoever for him to moderate his kleptomania.
On top of this, the US has an exceptionally shit constitution, so he has some ridiculous, unchecked powers, like the ability to pardon convicted criminals. Think how much you could make out of that, if you really put your mind to monetizing it...
It's Donald Trump taking the piss for no other reason than he can. He's having fun and why not? He's the clown son of a multi billionaire who has tired of everything else and is now enjoying seeing how far he can make the world gyrate as he pulls the strings.
He's loving it! It reminds me of the film 'Rollerball'. Life had become so shallow and meaningless that they decided to make the national sport more exciting. They drop all the rules. Ironically it was shot in '75 but it was set in the future. 2018 to be exact!
Trunp is a billionaire his father was a millionaire
Except the $100m+ he inherited from his father, if tracked to the S&P 500, is equivalent to Donald's current net worth. So I guess they are roughly the same. And Mr Trump hasn't really added anything.
"If the myth of Trump, negotiator par excellence, started in earnest with the publishing of The Art of the Deal, the prime-time television show in which he starred cemented it. And similar to the deal he struck with Schwartz to write his book, the negotiation that birthed “The Apprentice” was lightning-quick. Trump agreed with producer Mark Burnett to a 50-50 split without consulting any advisers, according to Trump Revealed. And when he attempted to get a giant pay raise after the show’s wildly successful first season, he … didn’t get it."
The EU is looking to use NI as a Trojan Horse to force the rest of the UK into a much closer alignment on the single market and customs union than it would otherwise have. So it isn’t really interested in creative solutions that might mitigate against that.
That’s as plain as the nose on your face.
Yes, it is. You can't blame a side in a negotiation for using their strong cards.
The reality is that Brexit means an external EU border in Ireland that will have to be hard. What will the 10-mile strip be for? Holding camps for border-crossers from Bulgaria and Romania?
BINO would be a lie to the people too far, so it's either a reversal of Brexit or a choice between a united Ireland and a return of the Troubles. A united Ireland would have to go to referendums north and south and would probably lose in one or both. Many people north and south like to thump the table about the border, but few in the South want the DUP in the Dail and few in the North want Dublin rule even (or especially?) now that abortion law has been liberalised. Which is the more important to people, the border or the NHS? Right.
Brexit means bullets. The period of "we're trying every possible way to avoid trouble, but the continentals are so underhanded and the Paddies are so stubborn" is ultra-British in its combination of xenophobia and whinging, but it will soon have to come to an end.
There's likely to be more polarisation in the Tory party not less.
It's hard to envisage the DUP staying supportive of the government for much longer.
Davis to be the next minister to leave the cabinet? And if May stays, then Mogg to replace him?
I see Deutsche Bank's share price is looking increasingly sickly.
I wonder whether Germany will use the new bail in rules and force losses on depositors or bail it out with taxpayer money. By EU law they must do the former, however, I don't think the government will allow ordinary depositors to lose any of their money.
Deutsche has lots of subordinated capital that will take the hit long before the depositors. Only about a third of the firm's liabilities are deposits. (EUR500bn out of EUR1.4trn)
It depends on the size of the bailout needed.
I come back to London for an interview and all the trains are cancelled.
This would never happen in Switzerland!
Someone should regulate them...
Funnily enough I have just completed some work for them and have just been sent an email confirming what I need to send to them to get paid. I will be doing this pronto!
German regulators are some of the weakest in Europe. At least one other regulator has said to me that they consider DB unregulatable, because the Germans simply aren't up to it.
Every summer for the last couple of years, DB has looked wobbly. What is different this time? Exposure to Italy? Risk of domino effect from Italy to France?
I see Deutsche Bank's share price is looking increasingly sickly.
I wonder whether Germany will use the new bail in rules and force losses on depositors or bail it out with taxpayer money. By EU law they must do the former, however, I don't think the government will allow ordinary depositors to lose any of their money.
Deutsche has lots of subordinated capital that will take the hit long before the depositors. Only about a third of the firm's liabilities are deposits. (EUR500bn out of EUR1.4trn)
It depends on the size of the bailout needed.
I come back to London for an interview and all the trains are cancelled.
This would never happen in Switzerland!
Someone should regulate them...
Funnily enough I have just completed some work for them and have just been sent an email confirming what I need to send to them to get paid. I will be doing this pronto!
German regulators are some of the weakest in Europe. At least one other regulator has said to me that they consider DB unregulatable, because the Germans simply aren't up to it.
Every summer for the last couple of years, DB has looked wobbly. What is different this time? Exposure to Italy? Risk of domino effect from Italy to France?
Mr. Felix, is that the Citizens' Party? Reckon they'll get most seats? [I doubt there's a market up yet, just wondering].
Yes and some of the polls give them largeish leads - however, they underperformed the polls last time although they overperformed in the recent Catalan elections where they are already the largest. and anti-independence party. I think the phrase is dyor and bayor!
I see Deutsche Bank's share price is looking increasingly sickly.
I wonder whether Germany will use the new bail in rules and force losses on depositors or bail it out with taxpayer money. By EU law they must do the former, however, I don't think the government will allow ordinary depositors to lose any of their money.
Deutsche has lots of subordinated capital that will take the hit long before the depositors. Only about a third of the firm's liabilities are deposits. (EUR500bn out of EUR1.4trn)
It depends on the size of the bailout needed.
I come back to London for an interview and all the trains are cancelled.
This would never happen in Switzerland!
There's close to a trillion of other liabilities junior to the depositors. There is literally no chance they will get a haircut here.
Assume that 20% of Deutche's EUR400bn of loans go bad, and that there's 50% recovery - that's a EUR40bn hole.
Assume their investments of EUR700bn get haircut 20% (and they won't, because a large chunk of that will be German, UK and US government bonds), and you knock another EUR140bn off.
And assume there are EUR100bn of other "issues" that we don't know about. (There won't be.)
That's EUR280bn (and I'm probably four times too high with that estimate). Even in that scenario, the depositors woundn't get touched.
Now, do shareholders get utterly wiped out in my scenario? Yes.
But there are lots of people in the capital structure junior to the depositors, and they will lose all their money first. So - all the preferred stock and CoCo bonds will be zeroed, then subordinated debt, etc.
How do CoCos work? I’d vaguely assumed they are forceibly converted as part of the recap - ie they end up holding pretty unattractive equity.
Are they converted before the recap (ie they get wiped out with the equity)?
If so that’s a horrible bastard mutant monstrosity of an investment
Why is the Sun being used as the channel here? Why not use a grownups' newspaper?
Answer that and the answer to the question "who by?" might pop out. Can it really be David Davis?
"Special economic zone", "double hatting", "Northern Ireland can trade with both GB and RoI". Stop, there's the rub: that's means a border along the Irish Sea. The following sentence is hilarious if you like that kind of humour:
"Mr Davis hopes his plan will unite Theresa May’s feuding Cabinet Brexit committee".
Is Davis getting ready to leave and sign a contract for his memoirs?
I am surprised how little discussion there has been of this plan. It is actually very good. We need to see the details but a dual regulation system in NI could actually work and would allow the UK overall to pursue its own trade policy and diverge from SM regulations. I am not sure how the DUP would react but it is not a bad compromise for them; there is no Irish Sea border required and they can operate on UK regulations if they are not exporting (eg most of them).
If the EU are in any way being honest they should accept this and then push for CETA + since this plan would be nothing like the SM so they can say there was no cherry picking.
Maybe Remainers are disappointed that there may actually be a solution.
In any event, credit to DD for coming up with something sensible because it doesn't sound like he has had a lot of help from the civil service.
It's Donald Trump taking the piss for no other reason than he can. He's having fun and why not? He's the clown son of a multi billionaire who has tired of everything else and is now enjoying seeing how far he can make the world gyrate as he pulls the strings.
He's loving it! It reminds me of the film 'Rollerball'. Life had become so shallow and meaningless that they decided to make the national sport more exciting. They drop all the rules. Ironically it was shot in '75 but it was set in the future. 2018 to be exact!
Trunp is a billionaire his father was a millionaire
Except the $100m+ he inherited from his father, if tracked to the S&P 500, is equivalent to Donald's current net worth. So I guess they are roughly the same. And Mr Trump hasn't really added anything.
Give him a chance, he's got at least 2 more years of presidential stealing ahead of him.
I get the impression a lot of people around him are making a lot more money than he is out of this farrago.
Trump is minting it. His properties are being used all the time and he charges full market rate. The secret service have had to rent out a full floor of Trump Tower.
That's the least of it, and this is still in the "answerable to the voters" part of his term. He gets a good 3 months, and possibly 4 years on top of that, where there's basically no incentive whatsoever for him to moderate his kleptomania.
On top of this, the US has an exceptionally shit constitution, so he has some ridiculous, unchecked powers, like the ability to pardon convicted criminals. Think how much you could make out of that, if you really put your mind to monetizing it...
*cough* Bill Clinton and Marc Rich *cough*
Exactly. What an unbelievably shitty constitution.
I see Deutsche Bank's share price is looking increasingly sickly.
I wonder whether Germany will use the new bail in rules and force losses on depositors or bail it out with taxpayer money. By EU law they must do the former, however, I don't think the government will allow ordinary depositors to lose any of their money.
Deutsche has lots of subordinated capital that will take the hit long before the depositors. Only about a third of the firm's liabilities are deposits. (EUR500bn out of EUR1.4trn)
It depends on the size of the bailout needed.
I come back to London for an interview and all the trains are cancelled.
This would never happen in Switzerland!
There's close to a trillion of other liabilities junior to the depositors. There is literally no chance they will get a haircut here.
Assume that 20% of Deutche's EUR400bn of loans go bad, and that there's 50% recovery - that's a EUR40bn hole.
Assume their investments of EUR700bn get haircut 20% (and they won't, because a large chunk of that will be German, UK and US government bonds), and you knock another EUR140bn off.
And assume there are EUR100bn of other "issues" that we don't know about. (There won't be.)
That's EUR280bn (and I'm probably four times too high with that estimate). Even in that scenario, the depositors woundn't get touched.
Now, do shareholders get utterly wiped out in my scenario? Yes.
But there are lots of people in the capital structure junior to the depositors, and they will lose all their money first. So - all the preferred stock and CoCo bonds will be zeroed, then subordinated debt, etc.
How do CoCos work? I’d vaguely assumed they are forceibly converted as part of the recap - ie they end up holding pretty unattractive equity.
Are they converted before the recap (ie they get wiped out with the equity)?
If so that’s a horrible bastard mutant monstrosity of an investment
They are and they aren't. They are because they are, in the end, a convertible bond which means it would end up being worthless in the event of a bail out/in. However, CoCos have paid an amazing yield over the last few years, DB's especially so given the level of discount available on them.
I don't know what the specific trigger for DB's CoCos are, most banks have them set to capital ratios though. I expect they would be subordinated on the event of bankruptcy though.
I assume they mean diesel cars, rather than cars in general.
If it's like Mini and BMW, it may be all cars while they rapidly fix things to meet the new criteria. Mini have stopped selling JCW models due to emissions issues and they won't be reintroduced until June 2019. Which is rather annoying as I was about to treat myself to a new one.
So Sanchez becomes Spanish PM despite the PP having won 52 more seats than his PSOE party at the last election and his not even being a member of parliament, like Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand he will be PM despite not leading the largest party in Parliament thanks to the support of Podemos and nationalist parties.
How long he remains PM is open to question, the Citizens leader Rivera leads current polls.
Senior Republicans including Speaker Paul Ryan attack Trump's tariffs plan as 'attacking American allies when we should be working with them to tackle unfair Chinese trade practices.'
...
And do nothing about it.
If Congress really opposes the Tariffs, it can halt them. If they don't, the Republicans deserve everything they get in the midterms.
Except that middle America doesn’t understand the nuances of international trade policy, they just see the President doing what he said he’d do and putting America First, protecting their jobs.
Don’t be surprised if Trump’s numbers go up as a result of this - even if a more isolationist trade policy is a bad idea long term, it will have short term benefits.
A majority of Americans driven by Democrats and Independents oppose these tariffs according to polls though Republicans support them. However as noted many GOP congressmen oppose them too
Yes, poor show from Lawson. Like W.H. Auden decamping to America in 1939, his reputation may never recover. He should have waited until Brexit had been in place for at least a year. By then we'd all be too busy firefighting its consequences to notice.
Latest HoC Brexit thinking reported by someone who claims to be in the know is that the contentious Lords amendments will be voted on in w/c June 11th. The government expects to lose some of them, definitely on customs union, perhaps others. T May will bow to the will of the House and erase the red lines accordingly. The ERG will be faced with accepting defeat or challenging May. A challenge would not change the HoC arithmetic but some apparently believe that toppling May could lead to general chaos and make any form of withdrawal agreement impossible given the short time available. And hard Brexit will inevitably follow.
England very rarely play badly when I am watching them. Anderson wasted the new ball but Broad was excellent and Woakes terrific after a poor first over. It’s pretty muggy but the sun is coming through more and it should be better batting conditions this afternoon. Work to do but England on top.
I assume they mean diesel cars, rather than cars in general.
If it's like Mini and BMW, it may be all cars while they rapidly fix things to meet the new criteria. Mini have stopped selling JCW models due to emissions issues and they won't be reintroduced until June 2019. Which is rather annoying as I was about to treat myself to a new one.
Yes, there’s a gap between the old MINI JCW and the new one. The highly tuned version of the engine doesn’t meet the new emissions regs so they need to re-engineer it.
But Porsche already did that with their petrol powered sports cars a couple of years ago, replacing their lovely naturally aspirated flat 6 motors in the Boxster, Cayman and 911 with crap sounding turbocharged ones instead, much to the annoyance of the whole motoring press pack.
Latest HoC Brexit thinking reported by someone who claims to be in the know is that the contentious Lords amendments will be voted on in w/c June 11th. The government expects to lose some of them, definitely on customs union, perhaps others. T May will bow to the will of the House and erase the red lines accordingly. The ERG will be faced with accepting defeat or challenging May. A challenge would not change the HoC arithmetic but some apparently believe that toppling May could lead to general chaos and make any form of withdrawal agreement impossible given the short time available. And hard Brexit will inevitably follow.
Order your popcorn now.
Do the ERG have the numbers to topple May? I doubt it.
Latest HoC Brexit thinking reported by someone who claims to be in the know is that the contentious Lords amendments will be voted on in w/c June 11th. The government expects to lose some of them, definitely on customs union, perhaps others. T May will bow to the will of the House and erase the red lines accordingly. The ERG will be faced with accepting defeat or challenging May. A challenge would not change the HoC arithmetic but some apparently believe that toppling May could lead to general chaos and make any form of withdrawal agreement impossible given the short time available. And hard Brexit will inevitably follow.
Order your popcorn now.
Do the ERG have the numbers to topple May? I doubt it.
No, but she would be fatally wounded by any confrontation with them. Losing the confidence of about half of your own MPs would end her premiership. I think if the ERG had a ready made, acceptable, candidate to take over they could probably carry the vote. JRM isn't going to cut it though. I expect Sajid Javid will be heavily courted ahead of any putsch.
England very rarely play badly when I am watching them. Anderson wasted the new ball but Broad was excellent and Woakes terrific after a poor first over. It’s pretty muggy but the sun is coming through more and it should be better batting conditions this afternoon. Work to do but England on top.
Should we take up a collection for you to go to each game?
Latest HoC Brexit thinking reported by someone who claims to be in the know is that the contentious Lords amendments will be voted on in w/c June 11th. The government expects to lose some of them, definitely on customs union, perhaps others. T May will bow to the will of the House and erase the red lines accordingly. The ERG will be faced with accepting defeat or challenging May. A challenge would not change the HoC arithmetic but some apparently believe that toppling May could lead to general chaos and make any form of withdrawal agreement impossible given the short time available. And hard Brexit will inevitably follow.
Order your popcorn now.
Do the ERG have the numbers to topple May? I doubt it.
No, but she would be fatally wounded by any confrontation with them. Losing the confidence of about half of your own MPs would end her premiership. I think if the ERG had a ready made, acceptable, candidate to take over they could probably carry the vote. JRM isn't going to cut it though. I expect Sajid Javid will be heavily courted ahead of any putsch.
Do you think they could get anywhere near half? From what I understand they're about 50-60 max.
Latest HoC Brexit thinking reported by someone who claims to be in the know is that the contentious Lords amendments will be voted on in w/c June 11th. The government expects to lose some of them, definitely on customs union, perhaps others. T May will bow to the will of the House and erase the red lines accordingly. The ERG will be faced with accepting defeat or challenging May. A challenge would not change the HoC arithmetic but some apparently believe that toppling May could lead to general chaos and make any form of withdrawal agreement impossible given the short time available. And hard Brexit will inevitably follow.
Order your popcorn now.
Thinking through anothernick point about the Gov't being defeated on various customs stuff in parliament ... actually makes a deal with the EU easier I think. Out the SM, in the CU isn't the cup of tea many of the brexiteers here want ... but fundamentally the central tenet of the leave vote was regarding immigration; not the ability to do our own trade deals. It really does look like the most obvious way out. The department for God and the machine closing down or being massively downscaled (I think) in a couple of years is another straw in the wind.
Meeks sums it up in his final paragraph from his piece on the 23rd May
The government’s soft-line opponents seem confident that they can defeat it over the customs union question in the House of Commons. If they are right to be confident, the government will know that too. This begs the interesting question of whether Theresa May is consciously setting herself up for a Laevinic defeat. (For those that are unfamiliar with this idea, it is the opposite of a Pyrrhic victory – a defeat that brings a reward greater than triumph would have secured.) For if she is defeated on the floor of the House of Commons over the question of a customs union, she can seek to continue on that basis, respecting the will of Parliament over her own wishes, allying herself with the disgruntled hardline losers as she implements their strategic quietus.
Latest HoC Brexit thinking reported by someone who claims to be in the know is that the contentious Lords amendments will be voted on in w/c June 11th. The government expects to lose some of them, definitely on customs union, perhaps others. T May will bow to the will of the House and erase the red lines accordingly. The ERG will be faced with accepting defeat or challenging May. A challenge would not change the HoC arithmetic but some apparently believe that toppling May could lead to general chaos and make any form of withdrawal agreement impossible given the short time available. And hard Brexit will inevitably follow.
Order your popcorn now.
Do the ERG have the numbers to topple May? I doubt it.
No, but she would be fatally wounded by any confrontation with them. Losing the confidence of about half of your own MPs would end her premiership. I think if the ERG had a ready made, acceptable, candidate to take over they could probably carry the vote. JRM isn't going to cut it though. I expect Sajid Javid will be heavily courted ahead of any putsch.
Do you think they could get anywhere near half? From what I understand they're about 50-60 max.
The group may be, but a lot of MPs on the government benches aren't minded to stay on the customs union so may throw their lot in with whatever candidate the ERG put up.
It's Donald Trump taking the piss for no other reason than he can. He's having fun and why not? He's the clown son of a multi billionaire who has tired of everything else and is now enjoying seeing how far he can make the world gyrate as he pulls the strings.
He's loving it! It reminds me of the film 'Rollerball'. Life had become so shallow and meaningless that they decided to make the national sport more exciting. They drop all the rules. Ironically it was shot in '75 but it was set in the future. 2018 to be exact!
Trunp is a billionaire his father was a millionaire
Except the $100m+ he inherited from his father, if tracked to the S&P 500, is equivalent to Donald's current net worth. So I guess they are roughly the same. And Mr Trump hasn't really added anything.
Give him a chance, he's got at least 2 more years of presidential stealing ahead of him.
I get the impression a lot of people around him are making a lot more money than he is out of this farrago.
Trump is minting it. His properties are being used all the time and he charges full market rate. The secret service have had to rent out a full floor of Trump Tower.
That's the least of it, and this is still in the "answerable to the voters" part of his term. He gets a good 3 months, and possibly 4 years on top of that, where there's basically no incentive whatsoever for him to moderate his kleptomania.
On top of this, the US has an exceptionally shit constitution, so he has some ridiculous, unchecked powers, like the ability to pardon convicted criminals. Think how much you could make out of that, if you really put your mind to monetizing it...
Abuse of the pardon power is explicitly listed in the Federalist papers as a reason for impeachment.
Do you think the Conservatives ever look at the populist parties either seizing or challenging for power across the world and think "Hey, we'll have some of that - campaigning on outside-the-box policies that are actually popular. We might even win that mythical landslide, at last!"
No, me neither. We'll just have them throw away a golden opportunity by being boring and unimaginative in the most populist age in decades, and letting the British left seize that initiative themselves. Well played, chaps.
Do you think the Conservatives ever look at the populist parties either seizing or challenging for power across the world and think "Hey, we'll have some of that - campaigning on outside-the-box policies that are actually popular. We might even win that mythical landslide, at last!"
No, me neither. We'll just have them throw away a golden opportunity by being boring and unimaginative in the most populist age in decades, and letting the British left seize that initiative themselves. Well played, chaps.
If only they didn’t have the most unrealistic populist policy of all hanging round their necks...
Do you think the Conservatives ever look at the populist parties either seizing or challenging for power across the world and think "Hey, we'll have some of that - campaigning on outside-the-box policies that are actually popular. We might even win that mythical landslide, at last!"
No, me neither. We'll just have them throw away a golden opportunity by being boring and unimaginative in the most populist age in decades, and letting the British left seize that initiative themselves. Well played, chaps.
Nah, the Tories are in Government. If they come up with something too wildly off the wall for the manifesto then the question arises... well why aren't you doing that already ?
And that's a best case scenario (See the dementia tax...)
Latest HoC Brexit thinking reported by someone who claims to be in the know is that the contentious Lords amendments will be voted on in w/c June 11th. The government expects to lose some of them, definitely on customs union, perhaps others. T May will bow to the will of the House and erase the red lines accordingly. The ERG will be faced with accepting defeat or challenging May. A challenge would not change the HoC arithmetic but some apparently believe that toppling May could lead to general chaos and make any form of withdrawal agreement impossible given the short time available. And hard Brexit will inevitably follow.
Order your popcorn now.
Do the ERG have the numbers to topple May? I doubt it.
No, but she would be fatally wounded by any confrontation with them. Losing the confidence of about half of your own MPs would end her premiership. I think if the ERG had a ready made, acceptable, candidate to take over they could probably carry the vote. JRM isn't going to cut it though. I expect Sajid Javid will be heavily courted ahead of any putsch.
Do you think they could get anywhere near half? From what I understand they're about 50-60 max.
The group may be, but a lot of MPs on the government benches aren't minded to stay on the customs union so may throw their lot in with whatever candidate the ERG put up.
If the Tories elect a leader with the express aim of getting a no-deal Brexit... I wouldn't be amazed to see the Tories who want a deal, joining forces with other parties to get a deal.
Do you think the Conservatives ever look at the populist parties either seizing or challenging for power across the world and think "Hey, we'll have some of that - campaigning on outside-the-box policies that are actually popular. We might even win that mythical landslide, at last!"
No, me neither. We'll just have them throw away a golden opportunity by being boring and unimaginative in the most populist age in decades, and letting the British left seize that initiative themselves. Well played, chaps.
The problem with most of the populist parties is that they believe in the magic money tree, and they see simple solutions to complex problems.
Do you want the Tories to lie to the electorate, and say - for example - that cutting taxes 10% and increasing spending 10% will pay for itself through the magic of... errr... magic.
Do you think the Conservatives ever look at the populist parties either seizing or challenging for power across the world and think "Hey, we'll have some of that - campaigning on outside-the-box policies that are actually popular. We might even win that mythical landslide, at last!"
No, me neither. We'll just have them throw away a golden opportunity by being boring and unimaginative in the most populist age in decades, and letting the British left seize that initiative themselves. Well played, chaps.
The problem with most of the populist parties is that they believe in the magic money tree, and they see simple solutions to complex problems.
Do you want the Tories to lie to the electorate, and say - for example - that cutting taxes 10% and increasing spending 10% will pay for itself through the magic of... errr... magic.
Cutting corporation tax rates has had a positive affect on corporation tax revenues in recent years. Arthur Laffer would be proud!
It's Donald Trump taking the piss for no other reason than he can. He's having fun and why not? He's the clown son of a multi billionaire who has tired of everything else and is now enjoying seeing how far he can make the world gyrate as he pulls the strings.
He's loving it! It reminds me of the film 'Rollerball'. Life had become so shallow and meaningless that they decided to make the national sport more exciting. They drop all the rules. Ironically it was shot in '75 but it was set in the future. 2018 to be exact!
Trunp is a billionaire his father was a millionaire
Except the $100m+ he inherited from his father, if tracked to the S&P 500, is equivalent to Donald's current net worth. So I guess they are roughly the same. And Mr Trump hasn't really added anything.
Give him a chance, he's got at least 2 more years of presidential stealing ahead of him.
I get the impression a lot of people around him are making a lot more money than he is out of this farrago.
Trump is minting it. His properties are being used all the time and he charges full market rate. The secret service have had to rent out a full floor of Trump Tower.
That's the least of it, and this is still in the "answerable to the voters" part of his term. He gets a good 3 months, and possibly 4 years on top of that, where there's basically no incentive whatsoever for him to moderate his kleptomania.
On top of this, the US has an exceptionally shit constitution, so he has some ridiculous, unchecked powers, like the ability to pardon convicted criminals. Think how much you could make out of that, if you really put your mind to monetizing it...
Abuse of the pardon power is explicitly listed in the Federalist papers as a reason for impeachment.
Do you think the Conservatives ever look at the populist parties either seizing or challenging for power across the world and think "Hey, we'll have some of that - campaigning on outside-the-box policies that are actually popular. We might even win that mythical landslide, at last!"
No, me neither. We'll just have them throw away a golden opportunity by being boring and unimaginative in the most populist age in decades, and letting the British left seize that initiative themselves. Well played, chaps.
The problem with most of the populist parties is that they believe in the magic money tree, and they see simple solutions to complex problems.
Latest HoC Brexit thinking reported by someone who claims to be in the know is that the contentious Lords amendments will be voted on in w/c June 11th. The government expects to lose some of them, definitely on customs union, perhaps others. T May will bow to the will of the House and erase the red lines accordingly. The ERG will be faced with accepting defeat or challenging May. A challenge would not change the HoC arithmetic but some apparently believe that toppling May could lead to general chaos and make any form of withdrawal agreement impossible given the short time available. And hard Brexit will inevitably follow.
Order your popcorn now.
Do the ERG have the numbers to topple May? I doubt it.
No, but she would be fatally wounded by any confrontation with them. Losing the confidence of about half of your own MPs would end her premiership. I think if the ERG had a ready made, acceptable, candidate to take over they could probably carry the vote. JRM isn't going to cut it though. I expect Sajid Javid will be heavily courted ahead of any putsch.
Do you think they could get anywhere near half? From what I understand they're about 50-60 max.
The group may be, but a lot of MPs on the government benches aren't minded to stay on the customs union so may throw their lot in with whatever candidate the ERG put up.
If the Tories elect a leader with the express aim of getting a no-deal Brexit... I wouldn't be amazed to see the Tories who want a deal, joining forces with other parties to get a deal.
Opposing the customs union isn't the same as being in favour of no deal.
How do CoCos work? I’d vaguely assumed they are forceibly converted as part of the recap - ie they end up holding pretty unattractive equity.
Are they converted before the recap (ie they get wiped out with the equity)?
If so that’s a horrible bastard mutant monstrosity of an investment
The goal of CoCos was to have debt that could become equity, so as to prevent the need for a government bailout.
The likely chain of events - were the DB hole to be sufficiently large - would be that as Tier One equity to fall below a certain point, the CoCos would be converted to equity.
If that was insufficient to plug the capital hole, and the government had to step in, then all the equity - including the recently converted CoCos - would be worthless*.
CoCos are bought by people obsessed by the need for income bearing products in a low yield environment - and who are ignorant of the risks they are running.
How do CoCos work? I’d vaguely assumed they are forceibly converted as part of the recap - ie they end up holding pretty unattractive equity.
Are they converted before the recap (ie they get wiped out with the equity)?
If so that’s a horrible bastard mutant monstrosity of an investment
The goal of CoCos was to have debt that could become equity, so as to prevent the need for a government bailout.
The likely chain of events - were the DB hole to be sufficiently large - would be that as Tier One equity to fall below a certain point, the CoCos would be converted to equity.
If that was insufficient to plug the capital hole, and the government had to step in, then all the equity - including the recently converted CoCos - would be worthless*.
CoCos are bought by people obsessed by the need for income bearing products in a low yield environment - and who are ignorant of the risks they are running.
* Or thereabouts.
I think if you know what the risks are going in, they aren't a bad investment. Not for me, but there is a market for them.
Having said that, anyone who thought that the convertible nature of the bond would ever allow them to recoup any capital was either kidding themselves or didn't do enough research.
Latest HoC Brexit thinking reported by someone who claims to be in the know is that the contentious Lords amendments will be voted on in w/c June 11th. The government expects to lose some of them, definitely on customs union, perhaps others. T May will bow to the will of the House and erase the red lines accordingly. The ERG will be faced with accepting defeat or challenging May. A challenge would not change the HoC arithmetic but some apparently believe that toppling May could lead to general chaos and make any form of withdrawal agreement impossible given the short time available. And hard Brexit will inevitably follow.
Order your popcorn now.
Thinking through anothernick point about the Gov't being defeated on various customs stuff in parliament ... actually makes a deal with the EU easier I think. Out the SM, in the CU isn't the cup of tea many of the brexiteers here want ... but fundamentally the central tenet of the leave vote was regarding immigration; not the ability to do our own trade deals. It really does look like the most obvious way out. The department for God and the machine closing down or being massively downscaled (I think) in a couple of years is another straw in the wind.
Precisely. If we left into the Single Market and Customs Union, and then invoked Articles 112-113 of the EEA Agreement, suspending Free Movement temporarily[1], it would content a strong majority of the public: - Immigration under control - Outside the CAP and CFP - Outside of 70-80% of EU legislation (specific figure varies depending on what you count) - Supply chains and customs and border issues (specifically the EU) largely go away
The downside is that we'd have a more limited (although not nil) role in shaping Single Market legislation, but as the prevailing view in the country is that our existing influence is negligible inside the EU, that might not be as big a holdup as we might think.
A larger downside is the lack of capacity to set our own trade deals, but despite that being a very significant issue to some of us here, it's undeniable that the majority of the public don't really care that much about it.
[1](given the house prices in the UK, surely any vaguely competent politician could argue that further increasing population (a significant component of which is immigration) until house building has had a chance to catch up comprises a significant economic difficulty, justifying our unilateral invocation of the brake in Article 112-113)
Latest HoC Brexit thinking reported by someone who claims to be in the know is that the contentious Lords amendments will be voted on in w/c June 11th. The government expects to lose some of them, definitely on customs union, perhaps others. T May will bow to the will of the House and erase the red lines accordingly. The ERG will be faced with accepting defeat or challenging May. A challenge would not change the HoC arithmetic but some apparently believe that toppling May could lead to general chaos and make any form of withdrawal agreement impossible given the short time available. And hard Brexit will inevitably follow.
Order your popcorn now.
Do the ERG have the numbers to topple May? I doubt it.
No, but she would be fatally wounded by any confrontation with them. Losing the confidence of about half of your own MPs would end her premiership. I think if the ERG had a ready made, acceptable, candidate to take over they could probably carry the vote. JRM isn't going to cut it though. I expect Sajid Javid will be heavily courted ahead of any putsch.
Do you think they could get anywhere near half? From what I understand they're about 50-60 max.
The group may be, but a lot of MPs on the government benches aren't minded to stay on the customs union so may throw their lot in with whatever candidate the ERG put up.
If the Tories elect a leader with the express aim of getting a no-deal Brexit... I wouldn't be amazed to see the Tories who want a deal, joining forces with other parties to get a deal.
Hmmm, I'm not sure. That would involve creating a coalition government with an agreed leader/PM and the confidence of both the HoC and the EU as interlocutor. And it would have to agree a deal and get it ratified by the 27 and the UK within about 6 months. That is a very, very tall order.
But Porsche already did that with their petrol powered sports cars a couple of years ago, replacing their lovely naturally aspirated flat 6 motors in the Boxster, Cayman and 911 with crap sounding turbocharged ones instead, much to the annoyance of the whole motoring press pack.
I actually prefer the turbo 4 pot 718s to the old NA flat 6 Cayman/Boxster (I had two). The MR packaging of the 6 in such a small car forced a lot of compromises such as the intakes and the relatively high position of the motor.
The 718 is getting an NA 4.0 6 next year which is going to have to have a mega price tag to stop is cannibalising 911 sales.
There is no reason buy a JCW Mini, which is a rich bloke's ex-wife's car, while we live in a world where the Civic Type-R exists.
Do you think the Conservatives ever look at the populist parties either seizing or challenging for power across the world and think "Hey, we'll have some of that - campaigning on outside-the-box policies that are actually popular. We might even win that mythical landslide, at last!"
No, me neither. We'll just have them throw away a golden opportunity by being boring and unimaginative in the most populist age in decades, and letting the British left seize that initiative themselves. Well played, chaps.
The problem with most of the populist parties is that they believe in the magic money tree, and they see simple solutions to complex problems.
Do you want the Tories to lie to the electorate, and say - for example - that cutting taxes 10% and increasing spending 10% will pay for itself through the magic of... errr... magic.
Cutting corporation tax rates has had a positive affect on corporation tax revenues in recent years. Arthur Laffer would be proud!
Corporates are , how to put this, able to move around geographically to optimise tax structures. Individuals (who don't want to live in Dubai) find that more difficult.
But Porsche already did that with their petrol powered sports cars a couple of years ago, replacing their lovely naturally aspirated flat 6 motors in the Boxster, Cayman and 911 with crap sounding turbocharged ones instead, much to the annoyance of the whole motoring press pack.
I actually prefer the turbo 4 pot 718s to the old NA flat 6 Cayman/Boxster (I had two). The MR packaging of the 6 in such a small car forced a lot of compromises such as the intakes and the relatively high position of the motor.
The 718 is getting an NA 4.0 6 next year which is going to have to have a mega price tag to stop is cannibalising 911 sales.
Latest HoC Brexit thinking reported by someone who claims to be in the know is that the contentious Lords amendments will be voted on in w/c June 11th. The government expects to lose some of them, definitely on customs union, perhaps others. T May will bow to the will of the House and erase the red lines accordingly. The ERG will be faced with accepting defeat or challenging May. A challenge would not change the HoC arithmetic but some apparently believe that toppling May could lead to general chaos and make any form of withdrawal agreement impossible given the short time available. And hard Brexit will inevitably follow.
Order your popcorn now.
Do the ERG have the numbers to topple May? I doubt it.
No, but she would be fatally wounded by any confrontation with them. Losing the confidence of about half of your own MPs would end her premiership. I think if the ERG had a ready made, acceptable, candidate to take over they could probably carry the vote. JRM isn't going to cut it though. I expect Sajid Javid will be heavily courted ahead of any putsch.
Do you think they could get anywhere near half? From what I understand they're about 50-60 max.
The group may be, but a lot of MPs on the government benches aren't minded to stay on the customs union so may throw their lot in with whatever candidate the ERG put up.
If the Tories elect a leader with the express aim of getting a no-deal Brexit... I wouldn't be amazed to see the Tories who want a deal, joining forces with other parties to get a deal.
Hmmm, I'm not sure. That would involve creating a coalition government with an agreed leader/PM and the confidence of both the HoC and the EU as interlocutor. And it would have to agree a deal and get it ratified by the 27 and the UK within about 6 months. That is a very, very tall order.
Yeah fair point. It would be interesting to say the least to hear Brexiteers arguing that by sabotaging Mrs. May they are actually helping the UK, that a non-functional govt is the best option!
Do you think the Conservatives ever look at the populist parties either seizing or challenging for power across the world and think "Hey, we'll have some of that - campaigning on outside-the-box policies that are actually popular. We might even win that mythical landslide, at last!"
No, me neither. We'll just have them throw away a golden opportunity by being boring and unimaginative in the most populist age in decades, and letting the British left seize that initiative themselves. Well played, chaps.
Well there was certainly the potential for the British left to seize that mantle. In practice that opportunity has been passed up. Labour are as far or further behind the Tories amongst C2DEs than they are amongst ABC1s. I think that is primarily down to a (correct) perception that Corbyn is entirely unconcerned about the scale of EU immigration. As a result Labour is struggling to win back support from the working class voters attracted to Leave, even with a leader who is trying to sit on the fence over Brexit and himself has clear Eurosceptic credentials.
The Conservatives are fortunate that Andy Burnham did not win the Labour leadership in 2015:
Latest HoC Brexit thinking reported by someone who claims to be in the know is that the contentious Lords amendments will be voted on in w/c June 11th. The government expects to lose some of them, definitely on customs union, perhaps others. T May will bow to the will of the House and erase the red lines accordingly. The ERG will be faced with accepting defeat or challenging May. A challenge would not change the HoC arithmetic but some apparently believe that toppling May could lead to general chaos and make any form of withdrawal agreement impossible given the short time available. And hard Brexit will inevitably follow.
Order your popcorn now.
Do the ERG have the numbers to topple May? I doubt it.
No, but she would be fatally wounded by any confrontation with them. Losing the confidence of about half of your own MPs would end her premiership. I think if the ERG had a ready made, acceptable, candidate to take over they could probably carry the vote. JRM isn't going to cut it though. I expect Sajid Javid will be heavily courted ahead of any putsch.
Do you think they could get anywhere near half? From what I understand they're about 50-60 max.
The group may be, but a lot of MPs on the government benches aren't minded to stay on the customs union so may throw their lot in with whatever candidate the ERG put up.
If the Tories elect a leader with the express aim of getting a no-deal Brexit... I wouldn't be amazed to see the Tories who want a deal, joining forces with other parties to get a deal.
Hmmm, I'm not sure. That would involve creating a coalition government with an agreed leader/PM and the confidence of both the HoC and the EU as interlocutor. And it would have to agree a deal and get it ratified by the 27 and the UK within about 6 months. That is a very, very tall order.
Yeah fair point. It would be interesting to say the least to hear Brexiteers arguing that by sabotaging Mrs. May they are actually helping the UK, that a non-functional govt is the best option!
Official government policy and the party manifesto pledged to take us out of the customs union and single market. It's not the ERG who are sabotaging the government. Look to your own side for that.
Do you think the Conservatives ever look at the populist parties either seizing or challenging for power across the world and think "Hey, we'll have some of that - campaigning on outside-the-box policies that are actually popular. We might even win that mythical landslide, at last!"
No, me neither. We'll just have them throw away a golden opportunity by being boring and unimaginative in the most populist age in decades, and letting the British left seize that initiative themselves. Well played, chaps.
The problem with most of the populist parties is that they believe in the magic money tree, and they see simple solutions to complex problems.
Do you want the Tories to lie to the electorate, and say - for example - that cutting taxes 10% and increasing spending 10% will pay for itself through the magic of... errr... magic.
Cutting corporation tax rates has had a positive affect on corporation tax revenues in recent years. Arthur Laffer would be proud!
Corporates are , how to put this, able to move around geographically to optimise tax structures. Individuals (who don't want to live in Dubai) find that more difficult.
Yeah fair point. It would be interesting to say the least to hear Brexiteers arguing that by sabotaging Mrs. May they are actually helping the UK, that a non-functional govt is the best option!
Official government policy and the party manifesto pledged to take us out of the customs union and single market. It's not the ERG who are sabotaging the government. Look to your own side for that.
Do you think the Conservatives ever look at the populist parties either seizing or challenging for power across the world and think "Hey, we'll have some of that - campaigning on outside-the-box policies that are actually popular. We might even win that mythical landslide, at last!"
No, me neither. We'll just have them throw away a golden opportunity by being boring and unimaginative in the most populist age in decades, and letting the British left seize that initiative themselves. Well played, chaps.
The problem with most of the populist parties is that they believe in the magic money tree, and they see simple solutions to complex problems.
Do you want the Tories to lie to the electorate, and say - for example - that cutting taxes 10% and increasing spending 10% will pay for itself through the magic of... errr... magic.
If it's a choice being that and Corbyn, damned right I would. Win the goddamned majority first, then deal with the hard details later. The electorate at the moment is infinitely forgiving of failure to fulfil unrealistic promises, but utterly intolerant of the failure to make them in the first place!
But Porsche already did that with their petrol powered sports cars a couple of years ago, replacing their lovely naturally aspirated flat 6 motors in the Boxster, Cayman and 911 with crap sounding turbocharged ones instead, much to the annoyance of the whole motoring press pack.
I actually prefer the turbo 4 pot 718s to the old NA flat 6 Cayman/Boxster (I had two). The MR packaging of the 6 in such a small car forced a lot of compromises such as the intakes and the relatively high position of the motor.
The 718 is getting an NA 4.0 6 next year which is going to have to have a mega price tag to stop is cannibalising 911 sales.
I looked at the 718 Cayman and, while it’s overall the better car than the older 981, the personality of the car is very different. It’s like comparing the new F1 cars the older but slower ones with the screamingly engines.
AIUI the n/a 4.0 is only going in the new GT4 rather than the series production model, and you’d better be very friendly with your local Porsche dealer if you want one of those.
Comments
The question is then whether this affects the President positively or negatively in the states where it matters for him to be re-elected. There has to be a danger for the Democrats that impeaching Trump for reasons that relate to events that happened before he took office could massively backfire.
Answer that and the answer to the question "who by?" might pop out. Can it really be David Davis?
"Special economic zone", "double hatting", "Northern Ireland can trade with both GB and RoI". Stop, there's the rub: that's means a border along the Irish Sea. The following sentence is hilarious if you like that kind of humour:
"Mr Davis hopes his plan will unite Theresa May’s feuding Cabinet Brexit committee".
Is Davis getting ready to leave and sign a contract for his memoirs?
German regulators are some of the weakest in Europe. At least one other regulator has said to me that they consider DB unregulatable, because the Germans simply aren't up to it.
Can you imagine what that would have been like for the forensic officers having to do the work? It's a tough enough job without the media spreading rumours about your integrity.
Shades of Yes Minister. Sun readers don’t care who regulates trade in NI as long as she’s got...
I think it may be a mistake to assume this all plays out as it did under Clinton.
Clinton had decent approval ratings, Trump doesn't. Trump has made plenty of enemies among Senators.
On top of this, the US has an exceptionally shit constitution, so he has some ridiculous, unchecked powers, like the ability to pardon convicted criminals. Think how much you could make out of that, if you really put your mind to monetizing it...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvRFTn91ZT8
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/06/01/donald-trump-deals-negotiation-art-of-deal-218584
The reality is that Brexit means an external EU border in Ireland that will have to be hard. What will the 10-mile strip be for? Holding camps for border-crossers from Bulgaria and Romania?
BINO would be a lie to the people too far, so it's either a reversal of Brexit or a choice between a united Ireland and a return of the Troubles. A united Ireland would have to go to referendums north and south and would probably lose in one or both. Many people north and south like to thump the table about the border, but few in the South want the DUP in the Dail and few in the North want Dublin rule even (or especially?) now that abortion law has been liberalised. Which is the more important to people, the border or the NHS? Right.
Brexit means bullets. The period of "we're trying every possible way to avoid trouble, but the continentals are so underhanded and the Paddies are so stubborn" is ultra-British in its combination of xenophobia and whinging, but it will soon have to come to an end.
There's likely to be more polarisation in the Tory party not less.
It's hard to envisage the DUP staying supportive of the government for much longer.
Davis to be the next minister to leave the cabinet? And if May stays, then Mogg to replace him?
That has made a material difference to DB's ability to operate.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44332699
If they're smart, they'll just claim asylum and get upgraded accommodation and free goat carcasses on the German taxpayer.
Are they converted before the recap (ie they get wiped out with the equity)?
If so that’s a horrible bastard mutant monstrosity of an investment
https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1002481979659640832?s=21
If the EU are in any way being honest they should accept this and then push for CETA + since this plan would be nothing like the SM so they can say there was no cherry picking.
Maybe Remainers are disappointed that there may actually be a solution.
In any event, credit to DD for coming up with something sensible because it doesn't sound like he has had a lot of help from the civil service.
What's more, do those attacking Lawson believe that every EU citizen who has not claimed British citizenship should be denied British residency?
Personally, I don't want every Frenchman in London to be forcibly evicted from their homes and deported from the United Kingdom.
Edited extra bit: must be off.
Until they fix emissions issues..
I don't know what the specific trigger for DB's CoCos are, most banks have them set to capital ratios though. I expect they would be subordinated on the event of bankruptcy though.
How long he remains PM is open to question, the Citizens leader Rivera leads current polls.
https://unherd.com/2018/05/sweden-trump-moment/?=frpo
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-trump-steel-aluminum-tariffs-unpopular-2018-3?r=US&IR=T
so all this fussing about german cars post Brexit might be for nothing as they'll have no cars to sell
Unlike Anderson, he's making the batsmen play most of the time, and unlike Broad, seems disinclined to review unnecessarily.
His test average in England is exceptionally good (overseas, not so much).
Order your popcorn now.
https://twitter.com/GrahameLucas/status/1002112399917436928?s=19
But Porsche already did that with their petrol powered sports cars a couple of years ago, replacing their lovely naturally aspirated flat 6 motors in the Boxster, Cayman and 911 with crap sounding turbocharged ones instead, much to the annoyance of the whole motoring press pack.
She's wet and a remainer but the metro types seem to like that sort of thing. Crime should be her no 1 campaign issue.
From what I understand they're about 50-60 max.
Out the SM, in the CU isn't the cup of tea many of the brexiteers here want ... but fundamentally the central tenet of the leave vote was regarding immigration; not the ability to do our own trade deals.
It really does look like the most obvious way out. The department for God and the machine closing down or being massively downscaled (I think) in a couple of years is another straw in the wind.
Meeks sums it up in his final paragraph from his piece on the 23rd May
The government’s soft-line opponents seem confident that they can defeat it over the customs union question in the House of Commons. If they are right to be confident, the government will know that too. This begs the interesting question of whether Theresa May is consciously setting herself up for a Laevinic defeat. (For those that are unfamiliar with this idea, it is the opposite of a Pyrrhic victory – a defeat that brings a reward greater than triumph would have secured.) For if she is defeated on the floor of the House of Commons over the question of a customs union, she can seek to continue on that basis, respecting the will of Parliament over her own wishes, allying herself with the disgruntled hardline losers as she implements their strategic quietus.
& I am inclined to agree.
No, me neither. We'll just have them throw away a golden opportunity by being boring and unimaginative in the most populist age in decades, and letting the British left seize that initiative themselves. Well played, chaps.
And that's a best case scenario (See the dementia tax...)
Do you want the Tories to lie to the electorate, and say - for example - that cutting taxes 10% and increasing spending 10% will pay for itself through the magic of... errr... magic.
Incompetent cowboys.
The likely chain of events - were the DB hole to be sufficiently large - would be that as Tier One equity to fall below a certain point, the CoCos would be converted to equity.
If that was insufficient to plug the capital hole, and the government had to step in, then all the equity - including the recently converted CoCos - would be worthless*.
CoCos are bought by people obsessed by the need for income bearing products in a low yield environment - and who are ignorant of the risks they are running.
* Or thereabouts.
Having said that, anyone who thought that the convertible nature of the bond would ever allow them to recoup any capital was either kidding themselves or didn't do enough research.
- Immigration under control
- Outside the CAP and CFP
- Outside of 70-80% of EU legislation (specific figure varies depending on what you count)
- Supply chains and customs and border issues (specifically the EU) largely go away
The downside is that we'd have a more limited (although not nil) role in shaping Single Market legislation, but as the prevailing view in the country is that our existing influence is negligible inside the EU, that might not be as big a holdup as we might think.
A larger downside is the lack of capacity to set our own trade deals, but despite that being a very significant issue to some of us here, it's undeniable that the majority of the public don't really care that much about it.
[1](given the house prices in the UK, surely any vaguely competent politician could argue that further increasing population (a significant component of which is immigration) until house building has had a chance to catch up comprises a significant economic difficulty, justifying our unilateral invocation of the brake in Article 112-113)
The 718 is getting an NA 4.0 6 next year which is going to have to have a mega price tag to stop is cannibalising 911 sales.
There is no reason buy a JCW Mini, which is a rich bloke's ex-wife's car, while we live in a world where the Civic Type-R exists.
(kidding)
It would be interesting to say the least to hear Brexiteers arguing that by sabotaging Mrs. May they are actually helping the UK, that a non-functional govt is the best option!
The Conservatives are fortunate that Andy Burnham did not win the Labour leadership in 2015:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andy-burnham-joins-labour-mps-criticising-jeremy-corbyns-refusal-to-accept-eu-immigration-a7334956.html
NEW THREAD
AIUI the n/a 4.0 is only going in the new GT4 rather than the series production model, and you’d better be very friendly with your local Porsche dealer if you want one of those.
Interesting to see the Corbynite fortress Britain mercantilism getting such support.