politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unofficial monster raving loonies. Decoding the Brexit customs
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You're joking, surely? I mean if even Wikipedia can get that right...DavidL said:
The SQA has once again covered itself in glory by giving a source piece which got the date of death of Mary Queen of Scots wrong by 20 years in the National 5 this year, claiming it happened in 1567. Children (at least those who noticed) were allegedly deeply traumatised which may say even more about how their educational experience is preparing them for life. It seems incredible to me that this sort of thing is not picked up.ydoethur said:
Peter Hain? (He's also the one who called Lisbon a 'tidying up exercise,' so I was a bit surprised to see the claim on a previous thread that the Labour minister in question had subsequently been convicted of fraud.)Morris_Dancer said:Just seen the Telegraph front page, on which Corbyn apparently has called for Ireland to be united. Hmm, frankly. Reminds me of that buffoon (his name escapes me, alas) from Labour who kept wibbling about giving Gibraltar to Spain.
At least however they probably have marking criteria. Ours is still provisional and the exam is a week on Monday.
Edit - shit, you're not. That's really, really poor:
https://www.scotsman.com/news/pupils-upset-after-exam-board-s-blunder-over-mary-queen-of-scots-1-47429450 -
Mr. Doethur/Mr. L, that's the idiot I was thinking of!
Thanks. For some reason I kept thinking of Peter Hague/Haig, but I knew that was wrong.0 -
I think I know what happened actually. Google shows the first paragraph of her Wiki entry, which says she 'reigned over Scotland' until 24th July 1567. Which is of course true. But some idiot has taken the dates of her reign to be coterminous with her life, whereas actually in a line underneath it correctly gives the date of her death as February 1587.
But my goodness, what an error. That cannot be the examiner, it must be a clerk of some description, but to fail to pick it up in proof is just extraordinary.0 -
My favourite Peter Hain moment was when, on being challenged about Wales' abject performance in just about every measure compared to England, he snapped that it was much better off compared to Rwanda and many other places.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur/Mr. L, that's the idiot I was thinking of!
Thanks. For some reason I kept thinking of Peter Hague/Haig, but I knew that was wrong.
It's a bit worrying when the only country your politicians can measure you against had a civil war and genocide less than 15 years before!0 -
Mr. Doethur, not heard that before, but it does seem to bear the Hain level of buffoonery
Still, happy days when Labour had mere dingbats in the Cabinet rather than socialists dominating the front bench.0 -
That's a painfully plausible explanation. I am not sure if this reflects SNP policy that once you go furth of Scotland you are a non person. It seems a missed opportunity for yet another grievance.ydoethur said:I think I know what happened actually. Google shows the first paragraph of her Wiki entry, which says she 'reigned over Scotland' until 24th July 1567. Which is of course true. But some idiot has taken the dates of her reign to be coterminous with her life, whereas actually in a line underneath it correctly gives the date of her death as February 1587.
But my goodness, what an error. That cannot be the examiner, it must be a clerk of some description, but to fail to pick it up in proof is just extraordinary.0 -
Morning all I see our ex-pat PB Brexiters are fighting like cats in a sack over what exactly they passionately voted for.0
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Given he claimed in the same discussion to have (I think) 1100 civil servants working on the two plans, that's rather odd....CarlottaVance said:Looks like that 'MaxFac' £20 billion figure may have been out.....by a factor of 20......
https://twitter.com/DMcWilliams_UK/status/9993829367209533440 -
Admittedly a low bar.rcs1000 said:
He was described to me as "the only adult in the room"* in a meeting between him, Johnson, Fox, and Hammond.Mortimer said:
Davis has been underestimated by the left and the EU since taking on the role.rcs1000 said:
I really don't know if you are just ignorant and making shit up, or actually mendacious.archer101au said:
No it wasn't. The bill was never 100bn; this was just thrown out there to make the British feel better about the eventual climbdown.CarlottaVance said:prominent Leavers were huffing and puffing about a Brexit bill of £40 billion.
Well, it was progress on the £100 billion we'd been told we'd have to pay:
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-uk-will-not-pay-100-billion-euro-eu-exit-bill-says-brexit-minister-2017-5/?IR=T
The UK agreed to pay EVERYTHING that the EU asked for
I'm going to assume the former.
Did the EU ever think it would get €100bn plus transition payments? No.
But everything the EU demanded, and the rational, is all in the public domain. I also have pretty good inside knowledge of what happened. The EU was engaged in anchoring, but David Davis held firm on a large number of issues:
- we ended up with no contingent liabilities associated with Ireland and Ukraine
- we ended up less than a fifth of what was asked for with regard to post 2020/21 'commitments'
- pensions numbers were based around our (sensible) discount rate, and not their one
Given we asked for a transition period, the real bill was c. £20bn - which is barely more than our share of the net asset deficit of the EU (€18bn). David Davis did a pretty good job.0 -
Indeed, but that factor of 20 would actually bring the costs down into the same region as what I'm quite sure the Swiss customs facilitation are. About 0.05% of GDP. If the EU also insists on collecting customs duty for imports that go via the EU it will be another 0.05% of GDP so a total cost of about £2bn per year.Nigelb said:
Given he claimed in the same discussion to have (I think) 1100 civil servants working on the two plans, that's rather odd....CarlottaVance said:Looks like that 'MaxFac' £20 billion figure may have been out.....by a factor of 20......
https://twitter.com/DMcWilliams_UK/status/9993829367209533440 -
As the only adult in the room is a saloon bar braggart, it does not bode well!Nigelb said:
Admittedly a low bar.rcs1000 said:
He was described to me as "the only adult in the room"* in a meeting between him, Johnson, Fox, and Hammond.Mortimer said:
Davis has been underestimated by the left and the EU since taking on the role.rcs1000 said:
I really don't know if you are just ignorant and making shit up, or actually mendacious.archer101au said:
No it wasn't. The bill was never 100bn; this was just thrown out there to make the British feel better about the eventual climbdown.CarlottaVance said:prominent Leavers were huffing and puffing about a Brexit bill of £40 billion.
Well, it was progress on the £100 billion we'd been told we'd have to pay:
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-uk-will-not-pay-100-billion-euro-eu-exit-bill-says-brexit-minister-2017-5/?IR=T
The UK agreed to pay EVERYTHING that the EU asked for
I'm going to assume the former.
Did the EU ever think it would get €100bn plus transition payments? No.
But everything the EU demanded, and the rational, is all in the public domain. I also have pretty good inside knowledge of what happened. The EU was engaged in anchoring, but David Davis held firm on a large number of issues:
- we ended up with no contingent liabilities associated with Ireland and Ukraine
- we ended up less than a fifth of what was asked for with regard to post 2020/21 'commitments'
- pensions numbers were based around our (sensible) discount rate, and not their one
Given we asked for a transition period, the real bill was c. £20bn - which is barely more than our share of the net asset deficit of the EU (€18bn). David Davis did a pretty good job.0 -
Did they vote? I thought exPats were up in arms over not being allowed to vote because they..... live...errr.... not in the UKTOPPING said:Morning all I see our ex-pat PB Brexiters are fighting like cats in a sack over what exactly they passionately voted for.
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But possibly only one of them working on the number.....Nigelb said:
Given he claimed in the same discussion to have (I think) 1100 civil servants working on the two plans, that's rather odd....CarlottaVance said:Looks like that 'MaxFac' £20 billion figure may have been out.....by a factor of 20......
https://twitter.com/DMcWilliams_UK/status/9993829367209533440 -
No, they were allowed to vote, though I think there is a time limit (15 years?) on how long you can be away for.Beverley_C said:
Did they vote? I thought exPats were up in arms over not being allowed to vote because they..... live...errr.... not in the UKTOPPING said:Morning all I see our ex-pat PB Brexiters are fighting like cats in a sack over what exactly they passionately voted for.
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Any more polling to come from Ireland on the referendum*?
Edited extra bit: sorry, people's vote*.0 -
On topic: excellent article, good to see the idea of strategic dithering getting currency, from my viewpoint Theresa is playing a blinder at the moment but, my Lord, what a way to have to go about things.
The ERG doesn't even nearly have the votes to topple Theresa within the party, even if they might eventually pull her into a confidence vote (that she should win) when there is no more to lose.
Within parliament may be different if Labour are whipped effectively to vote against whatever comes onto the table. This is May's second challenge, getting enough opposition remainy moderates onside with her eventual version of Hard Bino (Hard Bino is one where points 1-10 say we are leaving everything, but 10 (a) 3 (iii) and its fellow sublevel paragraphs make clear that many things are in name only). For that they need to choose between no deal Brexit and GE/ possible Corbyn Vs Hard Bino and no GE.
That should not be beyond the wit of woman, there should be enough tail end of career Labour moderates to line up behind the vote. I don't know when and how she will boil the remain centrist frog, but I suspect holding firm that the vote will be between the deal and WTO (and not entertaining a second referendum) will be a part of it.0 -
The one thing we can be sure of is that whatever transpires by way of Brexit will turn out to be something that mysteriously no-one will say that they actually voted for.TOPPING said:Morning all I see our ex-pat PB Brexiters are fighting like cats in a sack over what exactly they passionately voted for.
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Yes, splitting the operators and infrastructure, yet having both nationalised, is fine - as has always been known. Unfortunately that structure may not quite gain the advantages the EU wanted, which is exactly why SNCF and DB squealed when the EU tried to go further.rkrkrk said:This article makes the case that while a national rail monopoly is not possible under EU rules, it would be possible to, for instance, have a state-owned company for track and one for trains, as in Spain or the Netherlands. Other options for publicly run railways also available.
https://theconversation.com/renationalising-britains-railways-eu-law-not-a-barrier-96759
Although quite why you'd want to renationalise railway services, when the part of the current network that is failing is nationalised, is another question.
(It's also fairly clear that the dead hand of the DfT have a great deal to answer for NR's and the railway's travails. Witness the ludicrous and disastrous IEP trains...)
The main current problems with the railways lie not with the privatised operators, but with the nationalised sections and the DfT. Quite why people want to extend control to those organisations is mind-boggling. Well, it isn't really: its down to broken ideological dogma.0 -
The Scottish government wants to be judged on its record on education so it was fitting that it was the first big theme to be addressed by the first minister when she delivered her programme for government.ydoethur said:
You're joking, surely? I mean if even Wikipedia can get that right...DavidL said:
The SQA has once again covered itself in glory by giving a source piece which got the date of death of Mary Queen of Scots wrong by 20 years in the National 5 this year, claiming it happened in 1567. Children (at least those who noticed) were allegedly deeply traumatised which may say even more about how their educational experience is preparing them for life. It seems incredible to me that this sort of thing is not picked up.ydoethur said:
Peter Hain? (He's also the one who called Lisbon a 'tidying up exercise,' so I was a bit surprised to see the claim on a previous thread that the Labour minister in question had subsequently been convicted of fraud.)Morris_Dancer said:Just seen the Telegraph front page, on which Corbyn apparently has called for Ireland to be united. Hmm, frankly. Reminds me of that buffoon (his name escapes me, alas) from Labour who kept wibbling about giving Gibraltar to Spain.
At least however they probably have marking criteria. Ours is still provisional and the exam is a week on Monday.
Edit - shit, you're not. That's really, really poor:
https://www.scotsman.com/news/pupils-upset-after-exam-board-s-blunder-over-mary-queen-of-scots-1-4742945
Education, Ms Sturgeon claims, is the government's number one priority.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-41164700
But no! Lets talk about IndyRef2.....out today, how Scotland can be like Singapore or Hong Kong!0 -
It appears that the horseshoe theory applies to religious nutsacks as well as politics.
https://twitter.com/AmandaFBelfast/status/9994317433326714900 -
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Nothing since the big Yes leads last week, apparently:Morris_Dancer said:Any more polling to come from Ireland on the referendum*?
Edited extra bit: sorry, people's vote*.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-sixth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2018_(Ireland)
I'd guess some will appear today.0 -
The £20 billion a year cost to British industry quoted yesterday for conformance to Max Fac, excluding actual customs duties is based on an average processing cost of £37 per consignment. KPMG came up with an estimated processing cost of €78 to €128 per shipment for the Dutch government. So the total cost could be a lot higher than €20 billion a year.0
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IFS and Health Foundation say the NHS and social care need an increase of 4% in funds each year to be funded by a rise of 3p in the £ in income tax, VAT and national insurance as well as higher property and business taxes
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-442300330 -
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Mr. Palmer, cheers. It'll be interesting to see how things turn out.
Mr. 43, on the other hand:
https://twitter.com/HughRBennett/status/999313848506159104
Start of a thread, next tweet indicates the HMRC guess is 5%, which, compared to 0.1%, just looks in the wrong ball park. Later cites a WTO suggestion of 0.7%.0 -
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Which May is still aiming to deliver including leaving the single market and ending free movement, a Customs Partnership that enables new trade deals and a FTA but if Parliament votes to stay in the Customs Union thanks to Labour, the LDs, the SNP and Tory rebels from Remain seats there is not much she can do about it as she lacks an overall majority. May would probably have needed a landslide of at least 100 seats last June to guarantee a hard Brexit.archer101au said:
The Vote Leave manifesto, and that of your own party, was full control of our borders, full control of our trade policy and full control of our laws. That means leaving the SM and CU and having the ability to make our own trade rules and regulations.HYUFD said:
The Vote Leave manifesto was not WTO terms and the general election result was quite clear on that tooarcher101au said:
We did vote for it. That was the Vote Leave manifesto.HYUFD said:
May has always been clear she would replace FoM with work permits so there is no breaching of her red lines there. The referendum result to Leave the EU is also being carried out.archer101au said:
You are deluding yourself. For the CU to solve the NI border the way the EU wants, we would have to abide by ALL the SM regulations - otherwise there would still need to be border checks according to the EU. Which will mean:HYUFD said:
No actually he has not said that, he just said he would need to align with some of the single market rules and regulations not actually remain a member of it which if we remained worse after years of negotiation
1. Ongoing contributions to Brussels - against May's red line
2. ECJ jurisdiction - against May's red line
3. FOM (dressed up as something else - shall we use the term 'work permits'?) - against May's red line.
I know that you are a Tory and thus used to selling the country down the river on Europe - Heath, Maastricht, Lisbon Treaty non-referendum, Cameron's fake 're-negotiation' and now Brexit. But just be honest about what you are doing rather than pretending that you are in any way trying to carry out the referendum result.
Yes I am a Tory, I am not UKIP, if people want ultra hard Brexit ie out of the Customs Union, out of the Single Market, no regulatory alignment and a hard border in Ireland and no FTA and WTO terms they can still vote for them
Both groups wanted an FTA with the EU if possible on these terms. If not possible both groups discussed WTO as the fallback.
None of this is going to be delivered by the Tories.
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I was thinking yesterday as I travelled the thirty five minutes from Beaulieu through Monaco to Menton and accross the invisble border to the market at Ventimiglia what cultural vandalism the timidity of our politicians have wrought on us.
Different language different feel a currency that works everywhere and no bureaucrats demanding passports or identification. It's a paradise.
The next generation are not going to forgive us0 -
The Boomers have a lot to answer for ...Roger said:I was thinking yesterday as I travelled the thirty five minutes from Beaulieu through Monaco to Menton and accross the invisble border to the market at Ventimiglia what cultural vandalism the timidity of our politicians have wrought on us.
Different language different feel a currency that works everywhere and no bureaucrats demanding passports or identification.
The next generation are not going to forgive us0 -
Yes as @Richard_Nabavi points out often and wisely, the voters chose this; we refused to give May the type of majority she needed for any type of Brexit in particular.HYUFD said:
Which May is still aiming to deliver including a Customs Partnership that enables new trade deals and a FTA but if Parliament votes to stay in the Customs Union thanks to Labour, the LDs, the SNP and Tory rebels from Remain seats there is not much she can do about it as she lacks an overall majority. May would probably have needed a landslide of at least 100 seats last June to guarantee a hard Brexit.archer101au said:
The Vote Leave manifesto, and that of your own party, was full control of our borders, full control of our trade policy and full control of our laws. That means leaving the SM and CU and having the ability to make our own trade rules and regulations.HYUFD said:
The Vote Leave manifesto was not WTO terms and the general election result was quite clear on that tooarcher101au said:
We did vote for it. That was the Vote Leave manifesto.HYUFD said:
May has always been clear she would replace FoM with work permits so there is no breaching of her red lines there. The referendum result to Leave the EU is also being carried out.archer101au said:
You are deluding yourself. For the CU to solve the NI border the way the EU wants, we would have to abide by ALL the SM regulations - otherwise there would still need to be border checks according to the EU. Which will mean:HYUFD said:
No actually he has not said that, he just said he would need to align with some of the single market rules and regulations not actually remain a member of it which if we remained worse after years of negotiation
1. Ongoing contributions to Brussels - against May's red line
2. ECJ jurisdiction - against May's red line
3. FOM (dressed up as something else - shall we use the term 'work permits'?) - against May's red line.
I know that you are a Tory and thus used to selling the country down the river on Europe - Heath, Maastricht, Lisbon Treaty non-referendum, Cameron's fake 're-negotiation' and now Brexit. But just be honest about what you are doing rather than pretending that you are in any way trying to carry out the referendum result.
Yes I am a Tory, I am not UKIP, if people want ultra hard Brexit ie out of the Customs Union, out of the Single Market, no regulatory alignment and a hard border in Ireland and no FTA and WTO terms they can still vote for them
Both groups wanted an FTA with the EU if possible on these terms. If not possible both groups discussed WTO as the fallback.
None of this is going to be delivered by the Tories.0 -
Some private school pupils have bursaries and scholarships as their parents would otherwise not have afforded the feesCarlottaVance said:Words fail.....
https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/9995490573317570560 -
Switzerland has a very different level of alignment with the single market. The whole point is that the UK government has rejected what Switzerland has.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Palmer, cheers. It'll be interesting to see how things turn out.
Mr. 43, on the other hand:
https://twitter.com/HughRBennett/status/999313848506159104
Start of a thread, next tweet indicates the HMRC guess is 5%, which, compared to 0.1%, just looks in the wrong ball park. Later cites a WTO suggestion of 0.7%.
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Current Temporarily Reintroduced Border ControlsRoger said:I was thinking yesterday as I travelled the thirty five minutes from Beaulieu through Monaco to Menton and accross the invisble border to the market at Ventimiglia what cultural vandalism the timidity of our politicians have wrought on us.
Different language different feel a currency that works everywhere and no bureaucrats demanding passports or identification. It's a paradise.
The next generation are not going to forgive us
Temporarily reintroduced border controls in the context of foreseeable events:
France (30 April 2018 – 30 October 2018) persistent terrorist threat; all internal borders
Austria (12 May 2018 – 11 November 2018) security situation in Europe and threats resulting from the continuous significant secondary movements; land borders with Hungary and with Slovenia;
Germany (12 May 2018 – 11 November 2018) security situation in Europe and threats resulting from the continuous significant secondary movements; land border with Austria;
Denmark (12 May 2018 – 11 November 2018) security situation in Europe and threats resulting from the continuous significant secondary movements; all internal borders with an initial focus on the land border with Germany and ports with connection to Germany;
Sweden (12 May 2018 – 11 November 2018) continuous serious threat to public policy and internal security; all internal borders;
Norway (12 May 2018 – 11 November 2018) security situation in Europe and threats resulting from the continuous significant secondary movements; all internal borders with an initial focus on ferry connections with DK, DE and SE;
https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control_en0 -
Good to see the Orange Order and the Pope united at last!Theuniondivvie said:It appears that the horseshoe theory applies to religious nutsacks as well as politics.
https://twitter.com/AmandaFBelfast/status/9994317433326714900 -
Yes, but I think its a bit of a stretch to call them 'disadvantaged'....HYUFD said:
Some private school pupils have bursaries and scholarships as their parents would otherwise not have afforded the feesCarlottaVance said:Words fail.....
https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/9995490573317570560 -
Mr Roger,
As they supposedly used to say in Liverpool, "Calm down, calm down", you Remainers.
Most people just want May to get on with it, but the EU negotiates exceedingly slowly and often backtracks. That's the curse of a bureaucracy. Nothing concrete will emerge until there is a deadline they cannot ignore, and even then it's likely to be a fudge.
Best go outside for a deep breath and put things in perspective. You might be dead tomorrow.0 -
Frankly, I am amazed that a few noise-makers have held the Tories to ransom for years. Personally I would have told them to clear off and join UKIP or form their own party. A few public "executions" pour encourager les autres and I feel that the problem would have been largely solved.Pro_Rata said:The ERG doesn't even nearly have the votes to topple Theresa within the party, even if they might eventually pull her into a confidence vote (that she should win) when there is no more to lose.
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Shall we compromise and call them working class kids?CarlottaVance said:
Yes, but I think its a bit of a stretch to call them 'disadvantaged'....HYUFD said:
Some private school pupils have bursaries and scholarships as their parents would otherwise not have afforded the feesCarlottaVance said:Words fail.....
https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/9995490573317570560 -
I can't read PowerPoint presentations on this device. Nevertheless an estimated customs processing cost of £2.50 per consignment is ridiculously low.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Palmer, cheers. It'll be interesting to see how things turn out.
Mr. 43, on the other hand:
https://twitter.com/HughRBennett/status/999313848506159104
Start of a thread, next tweet indicates the HMRC guess is 5%, which, compared to 0.1%, just looks in the wrong ball park. Later cites a WTO suggestion of 0.7%.
PS it's possible Hugh Bennett is talking only about the actual duties, not the processing costs. He's pretty vague.0 -
Lots to get finished today then ...CD13 said:Best go outside for a deep breath and put things in perspective. You might be dead tomorrow.
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Get a grip man, however bad a decision people may think it was when you wax lyrical about the horror of it like that it just comes across as silly, and thus ineffective in terms of criticism. The next generation will have the opportunity to undo it if they want, after all we keep being told how easy it would be to remain, and if the sun falls from the sky and society becomes mad max style rejoining will be damn easy too.Roger said:I was thinking yesterday as I travelled the thirty five minutes from Beaulieu through Monaco to Menton and accross the invisble border to the market at Ventimiglia what cultural vandalism the timidity of our politicians have wrought on us.
Different language different feel a currency that works everywhere and no bureaucrats demanding passports or identification. It's a paradise.
The next generation are not going to forgive us0 -
Not necessarily it is not unknown for even some major private schools now to have boarders whose parents live on council estates on full scholarships if they pass the scholarship exam or have exceptional sporting or musical or dramatic talentCarlottaVance said:
Yes, but I think its a bit of a stretch to call them 'disadvantaged'....HYUFD said:
Some private school pupils have bursaries and scholarships as their parents would otherwise not have afforded the feesCarlottaVance said:Words fail.....
https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/9995490573317570560 -
Maybe not if you are a de facto part of the single market, like Switzerland is.FF43 said:
I can't read PowerPoint presentations on this device. Nevertheless an estimated customs processing cost of £2.50 per consignment is ridiculously low.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Palmer, cheers. It'll be interesting to see how things turn out.
Mr. 43, on the other hand:
https://twitter.com/HughRBennett/status/999313848506159104
Start of a thread, next tweet indicates the HMRC guess is 5%, which, compared to 0.1%, just looks in the wrong ball park. Later cites a WTO suggestion of 0.7%.
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That was perhaps the best bit of negotiating with the EU since Thatcher getting the Rebate in 1984.rcs1000 said:
I really don't know if you are just ignorant and making shit up, or actually mendacious.archer101au said:
No it wasn't. The bill was never 100bn; this was just thrown out there to make the British feel better about the eventual climbdown.CarlottaVance said:prominent Leavers were huffing and puffing about a Brexit bill of £40 billion.
Well, it was progress on the £100 billion we'd been told we'd have to pay:
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-uk-will-not-pay-100-billion-euro-eu-exit-bill-says-brexit-minister-2017-5/?IR=T
The UK agreed to pay EVERYTHING that the EU asked for
I'm going to assume the former.
Did the EU ever think it would get €100bn plus transition payments? No.
But everything the EU demanded, and the rational, is all in the public domain. I also have pretty good inside knowledge of what happened. The EU was engaged in anchoring, but David Davis held firm on a large number of issues:
- we ended up with no contingent liabilities associated with Ireland and Ukraine
- we ended up less than a fifth of what was asked for with regard to post 2020/21 'commitments'
- pensions numbers were based around our (sensible) discount rate, and not their one
Given we asked for a transition period, the real bill was c. £20bn - which is barely more than our share of the net asset deficit of the EU (€18bn). David Davis did a pretty good job.
Possibly better than that even.0 -
A few people I grew up with joined the Orange Order. 5W bulbs, most of them ...HYUFD said:
Good to see the Orange Order and the Pope united at last!Theuniondivvie said:It appears that the horseshoe theory applies to religious nutsacks as well as politics.
twitter.com/AmandaFBelfast/status/9994317433326714900 -
A slightly different perspective on Roger's idyllic border:
Refugees on the Pass of Death between Italy and France
On the path with young Eritrean refugees hiking from Italy to France along the Cote D'Azure.
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/07/refugees-pass-death-italy-france-170726055256553.html0 -
I wouldn't bother worrying about a soft border checks,the next hundred years could see our country heading towards a Bosnia type situation,lucky I won't be around to see it.Roger said:I was thinking yesterday as I travelled the thirty five minutes from Beaulieu through Monaco to Menton and accross the invisble border to the market at Ventimiglia what cultural vandalism the timidity of our politicians have wrought on us.
Different language different feel a currency that works everywhere and no bureaucrats demanding passports or identification. It's a paradise.
The next generation are not going to forgive us0 -
Why can the Swiss do it for a fraction of that ?FF43 said:The £20 billion a year cost to British industry quoted yesterday for conformance to Max Fac, excluding actual customs duties is based on an average processing cost of £37 per consignment. KPMG came up with an estimated processing cost of €78 to €128 per shipment for the Dutch government. So the total cost could be a lot higher than €20 billion a year.
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Well I crossed the border at two different points yesterday and it was as 'manned' as the border at John O'GroatsCarlottaVance said:
Current Temporarily Reintroduced Border ControlsRoger said:I was thinking yesterday as I travelled the thirty five minutes from Beaulieu through Monaco to Menton and accross the invisble border to the market at Ventimiglia what cultural vandalism the timidity of our politicians have wrought on us.
Different language different feel a currency that works everywhere and no bureaucrats demanding passports or identification. It's a paradise.
The next generation are not going to forgive us
Temporarily reintroduced border controls in the context of foreseeable events:
France (30 April 2018 – 30 October 2018) persistent terrorist threat; all internal borders
Austria (12 May 2018 – 11 November 2018) security situation in Europe and threats resulting from the continuous significant secondary movements; land borders with Hungary and with Slovenia;
Germany (12 May 2018 – 11 November 2018) security situation in Europe and threats resulting from the continuous significant secondary movements; land border with Austria;
Denmark (12 May 2018 – 11 November 2018) security situation in Europe and threats resulting from the continuous significant secondary movements; all internal borders with an initial focus on the land border with Germany and ports with connection to Germany;
Sweden (12 May 2018 – 11 November 2018) continuous serious threat to public policy and internal security; all internal borders;
Norway (12 May 2018 – 11 November 2018) security situation in Europe and threats resulting from the continuous significant secondary movements; all internal borders with an initial focus on ferry connections with DK, DE and SE;
https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control_en0 -
Because they are a de facto member of the single market. If we took the Swiss route it would certainly make things a whole lot easier and cheaper.TGOHF said:
Why can the Swiss do it for a fraction of that ?FF43 said:The £20 billion a year cost to British industry quoted yesterday for conformance to Max Fac, excluding actual customs duties is based on an average processing cost of £37 per consignment. KPMG came up with an estimated processing cost of €78 to €128 per shipment for the Dutch government. So the total cost could be a lot higher than €20 billion a year.
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I don't see why if things are done in bulk and efficiently. Not every consignment needs inspecting, for many the customs declaration ought to cost as much as a stamp.FF43 said:
I can't read PowerPoint presentations on this device. Nevertheless an estimated customs processing cost of £2.50 per consignment is ridiculously low.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Palmer, cheers. It'll be interesting to see how things turn out.
Mr. 43, on the other hand:
https://twitter.com/HughRBennett/status/999313848506159104
Start of a thread, next tweet indicates the HMRC guess is 5%, which, compared to 0.1%, just looks in the wrong ball park. Later cites a WTO suggestion of 0.7%.
PS it's possible Hugh Bennett is talking only about the actual duties, not the processing costs. He's pretty vague.0 -
The mess and confusion in Brexit continues to astonish me. No-one has a clue, they can’t even agree on basic maths.0
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Perhaps you haven't had the pleasure of being part of the single currency and shengen as most Europeans have? Or perhaps you have the sensitivity of John Redwood and Peter Bone?kle4 said:
Get a grip man, however bad a decision people may think it was when you wax lyrical about the horror of it like that it just comes across as silly, and thus ineffective in terms of criticism. The next generation will have the opportunity to undo it if they want, after all we keep being told how easy it would be to remain, and if the sun falls from the sky and society becomes mad max style rejoining will be damn easy too.Roger said:I was thinking yesterday as I travelled the thirty five minutes from Beaulieu through Monaco to Menton and accross the invisble border to the market at Ventimiglia what cultural vandalism the timidity of our politicians have wrought on us.
Different language different feel a currency that works everywhere and no bureaucrats demanding passports or identification. It's a paradise.
The next generation are not going to forgive us0 -
That's just the labour party.Jonathan said:The mess and confusion in Brexit continues to astonish me. No-one has a clue, they can’t even agree on basic maths.
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What are 'Boomers'?Beverley_C said:
The Boomers have a lot to answer for ...Roger said:I was thinking yesterday as I travelled the thirty five minutes from Beaulieu through Monaco to Menton and accross the invisble border to the market at Ventimiglia what cultural vandalism the timidity of our politicians have wrought on us.
Different language different feel a currency that works everywhere and no bureaucrats demanding passports or identification.
The next generation are not going to forgive us0 -
Baby-Boomers. Those born before 1960 who gotRoger said:
What are 'Boomers'?Beverley_C said:
The Boomers have a lot to answer for ...Roger said:I was thinking yesterday as I travelled the thirty five minutes from Beaulieu through Monaco to Menton and accross the invisble border to the market at Ventimiglia what cultural vandalism the timidity of our politicians have wrought on us.
Different language different feel a currency that works everywhere and no bureaucrats demanding passports or identification.
The next generation are not going to forgive us
- Free university education
- Affordable mortgages
- Good pension provision
- Benefited from massive house price inflation
etc....
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Interesting, thanks.rkrkrk said:
This article makes the case that while a national rail monopoly is not possible under EU rules, it would be possible to, for instance, have a state-owned company for track and one for trains, as in Spain or the Netherlands. Other options for publicly run railways also available.Anazina said:
I have read this latter point in several places, yet if it is true, how have weHYUFD said:
No ifs or buts about it, leaving free movement in place would see a significant number of Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North fall to the Tories or even a revived UKIP and Corbyn knows it which is why while he is prepared to stay in the Customs Union he will not agree to stay in the Single Market. Not forgetting Corbyn is also ideologically opposed to the Single Market unlike the Customs Union as it will stop him pushing through the nationalisations he wants to undertake if he becomes PMFoxy said:
Maybe, Maybe not. Lets do it and see.HYUFD said:
Except it isn't as such a policy would keep free movement in place and see working class Labour Leave voters in key Midlands and Northern marginal seats abandon the party in drovesFoxy said:
If the price of the key to Number 10 is staying in the SM (at least agreeing to do so...) Jezza and John would jump at it.Gardenwalker said:On topic,
May has deferred for as long as possible, and the Cabinet has not been able to form a consensus on this. Thus, she needs Parliament to vote one way or another. Probably she is “relaxed” about the outcome, she can live in, our out, of a customs union.
It does increasingly feels like the ERG - or perhaps Johnson - are preparing for a challenge, though.
And, come the parliamentary vote, if Corbyn smells blood, surely he’d take the opportunity to depose May, even if it means allowing a free vote on the single market? Deposing May is his quickest route to a Labour government.
a) just renationalised the East Coast Mainline
b) are building the largest construction project in Europe under public ownership (Crossrail) and
c) have the world’s fifth largest employer within the public sector (the NHS)
https://theconversation.com/renationalising-britains-railways-eu-law-not-a-barrier-96759
Funnily enough, I think this is one poll that actually makes sense. If it is accurate (and what polls are??) then the public is broadly right about which services should be in the public sector and which in the private sector.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view/
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If only that were true, but it’s endemic and far more serious. Apparently no one has a clue or can agree on basic points.Tykejohnno said:
That's just the labour party.Jonathan said:The mess and confusion in Brexit continues to astonish me. No-one has a clue, they can’t even agree on basic maths.
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On the contrary, I have great sympathy with people for whom the decision to leave has hit them hard, and as someone experiencing plenty of Bregret right now I am quite worried at how poorly things have gotten. I do not dismiss the concerns people have or even emotional toil.Roger said:
Perhaps you haven't had the pleasure of being part of the single currency and shengen as most Europeans have? Or perhaps you have the sensitivity of John Redwood and Peter Bone?kle4 said:
Get a grip man, however bad a decision people may think it was when you wax lyrical about the horror of it like that it just comes across as silly, and thus ineffective in terms of criticism. The next generation will have the opportunity to undo it if they want, after all we keep being told how easy it would be to remain, and if the sun falls from the sky and society becomes mad max style rejoining will be damn easy too.Roger said:I was thinking yesterday as I travelled the thirty five minutes from Beaulieu through Monaco to Menton and accross the invisble border to the market at Ventimiglia what cultural vandalism the timidity of our politicians have wrought on us.
Different language different feel a currency that works everywhere and no bureaucrats demanding passports or identification. It's a paradise.
The next generation are not going to forgive us
But you've been essentially crying about the death of all culture and the end of civilization for 2 years now. Its hard to take that seriously. How much sensitivity is reasonable to expect in such a scenario? You are so over the top with it, in my view undermining the point you want to make.
So no, I don't think i have been particularly insensitive. I will grant you my phrasing was brusque, though I would hope others woukd accept not rude, but I while I also hope we are all civil and sensitive, I should hope most would agree that blunt dismissal of dramatically maudlin ruminations is hardly unreasonable, any more than puncturing an overly optimistic pronouncement.
If you want to be all dramatic, that's your choice. Am I obliged not to think you are overdoing it even for an arch Remainer? It is insensitive to think your chosen style is ineffective or unwarranted? It might be wrong but it's insensitive?0 -
It is not Parliament that is driving May - this is just another Tory excuse. The civil service have driven her agenda and the fact she is a Remainer and utterly gutless when negotiating.HYUFD said:
Which May is still aiming to deliver including leaving the single market and ending free movement, a Customs Partnership that enables new trade deals and a FTA but if Parliament votes to stay in the Customs Union thanks to Labour, the LDs, the SNP and Tory rebels from Remain seats there is not much she can do about it as she lacks an overall majority. May would probably have needed a landslide of at least 100 seats last June to guarantee a hard Brexit.archer101au said:
The Vote Leave manifesto, and that of your own party, was full control of our borders, full control of our trade policy and full control of our laws. That means leaving the SM and CU and having the ability to make our own trade rules and regulations.HYUFD said:
The Vote Leave manifesto was not WTO terms and the general election result was quite clear on that tooarcher101au said:
We did vote for it. That was the Vote Leave manifesto.
Both groups wanted an FTA with the EU if possible on these terms. If not possible both groups discussed WTO as the fallback.
None of this is going to be delivered by the Tories.
Any sensible look at the Parliamentary arithmetic suggest it will be a lot easier for May to whip her Tory CU rebels to vote down the Lords amendments (which after all, is what was in her manifesto and they already voted it down once) than for her to somehow pass the Withdrawal Agreement bill if the ERG vote it down. Labour and SNP will oppose regardless (they are not going to take responsibility for the exit agreement) so how is May going to ever pass this bill if even a small number of the ERG vote it down, to say nothing of the DUP?0 -
Tissue Price - very droll0
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Life in the West is a paradise for anyone who is rich.Roger said:I was thinking yesterday as I travelled the thirty five minutes from Beaulieu through Monaco to Menton and accross the invisble border to the market at Ventimiglia what cultural vandalism the timidity of our politicians have wrought on us.
Different language different feel a currency that works everywhere and no bureaucrats demanding passports or identification. It's a paradise.
The next generation are not going to forgive us0 -
Well, the Tories decided to take on their 'noise-makers' by calling their bluff and having an in/out referendum. Turned out they were the majority. Awkward that.Beverley_C said:
Frankly, I am amazed that a few noise-makers have held the Tories to ransom for years. Personally I would have told them to clear off and join UKIP or form their own party. A few public "executions" pour encourager les autres and I feel that the problem would have been largely solved.Pro_Rata said:The ERG doesn't even nearly have the votes to topple Theresa within the party, even if they might eventually pull her into a confidence vote (that she should win) when there is no more to lose.
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Maybe they don't. Are they talking about duties or total processing costs?TGOHF said:
Why can the Swiss do it for a fraction of that ?FF43 said:The £20 billion a year cost to British industry quoted yesterday for conformance to Max Fac, excluding actual customs duties is based on an average processing cost of £37 per consignment. KPMG came up with an estimated processing cost of €78 to €128 per shipment for the Dutch government. So the total cost could be a lot higher than €20 billion a year.
Edit. Switzerland is also I the single market and will avoid much of the conformance checks.0 -
FYI i woukd be happy to be in the single market so your seeming assumption of where my criticism was coming from appears to be wrong.kle4 said:
On the contrary, I have great sympathy with people for whom the decision to leave has hit them hard, and as someone experiencing plenty of Bregret right now I am quite worried at how poorly things have gotten. I do not dismiss the concerns people have or even emotional toil.Roger said:
Perhaps you haven't had the pleasure of being part of the single currency and shengen as most Europeans have? Or perhaps you have the sensitivity of John Redwood and Peter Bone?kle4 said:
Get a grip man, however bad a decision people may think it was when you wax lyrical about the horror of it like that it just comes across as silly, and thus ineffective in terms of criticism. The next generation will have the opportunity to undo it if they want, after all we keep being told how easy it would be to remain, and if the sun falls from the sky and society becomes mad max style rejoining will be damn easy too.Roger said:I was thinking yesterday as I travelled the thirty five minutes from Beaulieu through Monaco to Menton and accross the invisble border to the market at Ventimiglia what cultural vandalism the timidity of our politicians have wrought on us.
Different language different feel a currency that works everywhere and no bureaucrats demanding passports or identification. It's a paradise.
The next generation are not going to forgive us
But you've been essentially crying about the death of all culture and the end of civilization for 2 years now. Its hard to take that seriously. How much sensitivity is reasonable to expect in such a scenario? You are so over the top with it, in my view undermining the point you want to make.
So no, I don't think i have been particularly insensitive. I will grant you my phrasing was brusque, though I would hope others woukd accept not rude, but I while I also hope we are all civil and sensitive, I should hope most would agree that blunt dismissal of dramatically maudlin ruminations is hardly unreasonable, any more than puncturing an overly optimistic pronouncement.
If you want to be all dramatic, that's your choice. Am I obliged not to think you are overdoing it even for an arch Remainer? It is insensitive to think your chosen style is ineffective or unwarranted? It might be wrong but it's insensitive?
But I have to get to work. Ciao
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I hope there's more sense going on than there appears, but it is harder and harder to believe itJonathan said:
If only that were true, but it’s endemic and far more serious. Apparently no one has a clue or can agree on basic points.Tykejohnno said:
That's just the labour party.Jonathan said:The mess and confusion in Brexit continues to astonish me. No-one has a clue, they can’t even agree on basic maths.
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It is pretty easy to see lies, if you want to see them. HMRC say maxfac will cost an insane amount of money but the customs partnership, which everyone acknowledges will be insanely complex and bureaucratic (and internally was dismissed by the civil service last year for exactly this reason), suddenly costs nothing.SouthamObserver said:
Because they are a de facto member of the single market. If we took the Swiss route it would certainly make things a whole lot easier and cheaper.TGOHF said:
Why can the Swiss do it for a fraction of that ?FF43 said:The £20 billion a year cost to British industry quoted yesterday for conformance to Max Fac, excluding actual customs duties is based on an average processing cost of £37 per consignment. KPMG came up with an estimated processing cost of €78 to €128 per shipment for the Dutch government. So the total cost could be a lot higher than €20 billion a year.
Need to be serious. The UK imports about twice the value of goods from the EU as Australia does in total. The total cost of the entire Australian department of Immigration and Border Control is GBP2.25bn, but this includes the whole immigration section as well. Also, Australia inspects for quarantine at the border in a very major way. Australia does not have regulatory alignment with anyone.
The idea that this will cost the UK 20bn is just laughable.0 -
My parents didn't get a free university education.Beverley_C said:
Baby-Boomers. Those born before 1960 who gotRoger said:
What are 'Boomers'?Beverley_C said:
The Boomers have a lot to answer for ...Roger said:I was thinking yesterday as I travelled the thirty five minutes from Beaulieu through Monaco to Menton and accross the invisble border to the market at Ventimiglia what cultural vandalism the timidity of our politicians have wrought on us.
Different language different feel a currency that works everywhere and no bureaucrats demanding passports or identification.
The next generation are not going to forgive us
- Free university education
- Affordable mortgages
- Good pension provision
- Benefited from massive house price inflation
etc....0 -
Mr F,
"Life in the West is a paradise for anyone who is rich."
Exactly so.
These Boomers of whom people speak who had it all. I think the young ones mistake the well-off middle class for the majority.
They had mortgages, but we had council houses. We all had the risk of polio and tuberculosis, but they had foreign holidays (fiendishly expensive), fridges, carpets, passports, telly, washing machines, and sometimes for the very best - heating that sometimes kept you warm.
As I told the four Yorkshiremen, the modern generation don't know they're born. They run out of things to worry about so they invent a few.0 -
Last note, but with all leaks from the Cabinet I'm surprised May doesn't tell them different things individually so she can easily determine who leaks what.Scott_P said:0 -
NEW THREAD
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Corbyn is still committed to leaving the EU and the single market given over a third of his voters and most Labour seats voted Leave even if he wants to stay in a Customs Unionarcher101au said:
It is not Parliament that is driving May - this is just another Tory excuse. The civil service have driven her agenda and the fact she is a Remainer and utterly gutless when negotiating.HYUFD said:
Which May is still aiming to deliver including leaving the single market and ending free movement, a Customs Partnership that enables new trade deals and a FTA but if Parliament votes to stay in the Customs Union thanks to Labour, the LDs, the SNP and Tory rebels from Remain seats there is not much she can do about it as she lacks an overall majority. May would probably have needed a landslide of at least 100 seats last June to guarantee a hard Brexit.archer101au said:
The Vote Leave manifesto, and that of your own party, was full control of our borders, full control of our trade policy and full control of our laws. That means leaving the SM and CU and having the ability to make our own trade rules and regulations.HYUFD said:
The Vote Leave manifesto was not WTO terms and the general election result was quite clear on that tooarcher101au said:
We did vote for it. That was the Vote Leave manifesto.
Both groups wanted an FTA with the EU if possible on these terms. If not possible both groups discussed WTO as the fallback.
None of this is going to be delivered by the Tories.
Any sensible look at the Parliamentary arithmetic suggest it will be a lot easier for May to whip her Tory CU rebels to vote down the Lords amendments (which after all, is what was in her manifesto and they already voted it down once) than for her to somehow pass the Withdrawal Agreement bill if the ERG vote it down. Labour and SNP will oppose regardless (they are not going to take responsibility for the exit agreement) so how is May going to ever pass this bill if even a small number of the ERG vote it down, to say nothing of the DUP?0 -
I think you are confusing the over 80s - who experienced war and rationing and real struggle - with those in their late 50s and 60s who really didn't,CD13 said:Mr F,
"Life in the West is a paradise for anyone who is rich."
Exactly so.
These Boomers of whom people speak who had it all. I think the young ones mistake the well-off middle class for the majority.
They had mortgages, but we had council houses. We all had the risk of polio and tuberculosis, but they had foreign holidays (fiendishly expensive), fridges, carpets, passports, telly, washing machines, and sometimes for the very best - heating that sometimes kept you warm.
As I told the four Yorkshiremen, the modern generation don't know they're born. They run out of things to worry about so they invent a few.
No one said that generation all had it easy but it was possible to build a life and a secure future and retirement even on modest means. My father never earned the average London wage but could buy a 3 bed house in London on one wage with a 1.5 times salary mortgage. University education was Free, final salary pensions were the norm, you could walk out of a job and find another within a day.
I don't deny they worked hard but the fact my parents house is now worth more than 100 times what they paid for it in 1971 was down to luck and government and changing banking policies. He also got a final salary pension. An ordinary couple on two average wages would never be able to build the security they had today.
Yes there are more material things now - but the basics like a secure home you can rent or own for life and bring your family up in, a guaranteed income in retirement, and a secure job for life don't exist anymore for many. Material things are nice but they are far more valuable.0