politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit exit date punters get nervous the following the Elector
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit exit date punters get nervous the following the Electoral Commission ruling on Leave campaign funding
Yesterday’s ruling about Vote EU’s referendum expenses has inevitably led to those betting that the March 29th date will be achieved reviewing their positions. In recent weeks the market had been moving strongly towards it happening on time and it is still odds on.
Comments
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First whinge to me
It isn't fair. They lied. They cheated.
Note: they applies to both sides.0 -
It's not fair.philiph said:First whinge to me
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Which Remain campaigners have been referred to the Met?philiph said:First whinge to me
It isn't fair. They lied. They cheated.
Note: they applies to both sides.0 -
Good news. A chink of light. I don't want to be Jonah for such a crucial cause but it's difficult not to get the feeling that the force is with the Remainers0
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I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.0 -
Leave spent £12m...RoyalBlue said:In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/09/arron-banks-company-provided-12m-of-services-to-leaveeu0 -
While campaign skullduggery is of minority interest, the governments disarray is more significant in the Brexit market, as it seems increasingly that we may need an extension to get past the governments internal deadlock.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.0 -
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OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.0 -
Not to mention whatever ££ figure you want to put on Russian trolling on social media. And we still haven’t had a proper inquiry on that.Scott_P said:
Leave spent £12m...RoyalBlue said:In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/09/arron-banks-company-provided-12m-of-services-to-leaveeu0 -
' An Electoral Commission investigation found 307 payments totalling £184,676 were missing from the Lib Dems’ 2015 general election spending return with no reasonable excuse.MikeSmithson said:
Which Remain campaigners have been referred to the Met?philiph said:First whinge to me
It isn't fair. They lied. They cheated.
Note: they applies to both sides.
It is the responsibility of Mr Gordon - party’s registered campaigns officer–to ensure spending returns are accurate and rules are followed.
The watchdog’s investigation concluded Mr Gordon had committed an offence under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act (PPERA) by “knowingly or recklessly making a false declaration”.
The Commission’s report said: “The evidence provided by the party indicates that some persons within the party were aware of some of the missing payments before the spending return was submitted.
“Consequently some persons within the party were aware that the return was not complete nor correct prior to the campaigns officer signing the accompanying declaration, raising the potential that it was a false declaration.”
The watchdog said last night it was the first time they had called in police over this offence. '
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2354252/cops-probe-lib-dem-chief-executive-tim-gordon-following-20000-fine-for-undeclared-election-spending/0 -
Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?another_richard said:
OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.0 -
Isn’t Lansman Jewish?Scott_P said:
It seems daft to say that someone of Jewish heritage is anti-semitic. Unless there’s a confusion between anti-semitism in general and anti Israeli Government.0 -
Remain spent a whole lot more of that, and that's not even including the £9mn:Scott_P said:
Leave spent £12m...RoyalBlue said:In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/09/arron-banks-company-provided-12m-of-services-to-leaveeu
https://i.redd.it/cc19pq4y0xn01.jpg0 -
I put my trust in the Robert Smithson / Nick Palmer view that things get worked out in the end and beforehand we get a bit of acting and a lot of posturing.Foxy said:
While campaign skullduggery is of minority interest, the governments disarray is more significant in the Brexit market, as it seems increasingly that we may need an extension to get past the governments internal deadlock.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
Well its easier to put trust in that than put trust in our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert' diplomats.0 -
I thought there was meant to be something at some point - its a whole year now.DavidL said:
Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?another_richard said:
OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
But you lawyers like to let things drag on and on (at £300ph
). 0 -
Trial starts on Monday, verdict is due whilst Mike is on holiday.DavidL said:
Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?another_richard said:
OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.0 -
The source of WHSmith's profitability is perhaps revealed:
' WHSmith has admitted it made more than £700 by selling single tubes of toothpaste for £7.99 in a hospital.
The Pinderfields Hospital branch in Wakefield was caught selling Colgate, normally priced at £2.49, by a visitor.
The retailer blamed a pricing error and said proceeds from the sales would be donated to charity St George's Crypt.
In 2015, WHSmith was accused of exploiting hospital customers after the BBC found it was charging less on the high street. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-440846380 -
It’s in respect of the 2015 election.another_richard said:
I thought there was meant to be something at some point - its a whole year now.DavidL said:
Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?another_richard said:
OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
But you lawyers like to let things drag on and on (at £300ph).0 -
Got to pay these school fees from something...another_richard said:
I thought there was meant to be something at some point - its a whole year now.DavidL said:
Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?another_richard said:
OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
But you lawyers like to let things drag on and on (at £300ph).
Actually, I am getting the privilege of a legal aid case at the moment which involves payment at a gross rate of £900 a day from which I have to pay commissions etc leaving about £650 before tax. I work that out at more like £50 an hour including preparation. Its my charitable donation for the year.0 -
I think the investigation was completed last May.OldKingCole said:
It’s in respect of the 2015 election.another_richard said:
I thought there was meant to be something at some point - its a whole year now.DavidL said:
Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?another_richard said:
OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
But you lawyers like to let things drag on and on (at £300ph).0 -
That's not very fair on Mackinlay is it? He should really have a word.TheScreamingEagles said:
Trial starts on Monday, verdict is due whilst Mike is on holiday.DavidL said:
Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?another_richard said:
OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.0 -
A South Thanet by election with Farage as the candidate with Mrs May offering a BINO will be interesting.DavidL said:
That's not very fair on Mackinlay is it? He should really have a word.TheScreamingEagles said:
Trial starts on Monday, verdict is due whilst Mike is on holiday.DavidL said:
Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?another_richard said:
OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
Could Nigel Farage become for the first mainland DUP MP since Andrew Hunter?0 -
I'd be careful with that. The most common way for contentious EU arguments to get worked out is to kick the can down the road a bit. I know there are some procedural hurdles, but if you trust everyone to work out how to muddle through and avoid a car crash then you should be betting on an extension.another_richard said:
I put my trust in the Robert Smithson / Nick Palmer view that things get worked out in the end and beforehand we get a bit of acting and a lot of posturing.Foxy said:
While campaign skullduggery is of minority interest, the governments disarray is more significant in the Brexit market, as it seems increasingly that we may need an extension to get past the governments internal deadlock.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
Well its easier to put trust in that than put trust in our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert' diplomats.0 -
On topic for the first time I can see Article 50 being extended.
Working in an industry that is going to be greatly impacted by Brexit, and is the largest contributor to the Exchequer, kicking the can down the road to October really doesn't really leave much time to implement the deal.0 -
There would certainly be a bit of that and we've seen some already.edmundintokyo said:
I'd be careful with that. The most common way for contentious EU arguments to get worked out is to kick the can down the road a bit. I know there are some procedural hurdles, but if you trust everyone to work out how to muddle through and avoid a car crash then you should be betting on an extension.another_richard said:
I put my trust in the Robert Smithson / Nick Palmer view that things get worked out in the end and beforehand we get a bit of acting and a lot of posturing.Foxy said:
While campaign skullduggery is of minority interest, the governments disarray is more significant in the Brexit market, as it seems increasingly that we may need an extension to get past the governments internal deadlock.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
Well its easier to put trust in that than put trust in our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert' diplomats.
As someone said Brexit will be a process not an event.
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How many MPs are on record as supporting a referendum on the deal? Momentum for one is likely to become unstoppable before the autumn.0
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Which May effectively agreed in December by promising enough regulatory alignment by the UK to avoid a hard border in Irelandwilliamglenn said:0 -
Forza Italia not part of the proposed government, so this shouldn't in theory be the stopper on an administration being announced tomorrow, but I do think M5S will be feeling very twitchy at this news at such a sensitive moment.
https://www.thelocal.it/20180512/italy-court-lifts-ban-on-berlusconi-running-for-public-office-report
FI in general and Berlusconi in particular has been one of the main points of disagreement in the previous Lega / M5S talks.0 -
Which deal?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic for the first time I can see Article 50 being extended.
Working in an industry that is going to be greatly impacted by Brexit, and is the largest contributor to the Exchequer, kicking the can down the road to October really doesn't really leave much time to implement the deal.
The withdrawal bill doesn't need a huge amount of implementation.
The final deal probably will.0 -
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That’s a thought! Enoch Powell of course sat for an Ulster consituency. I wonder if his constituents could understand him and he them!TheScreamingEagles said:
A South Thanet by election with Farage as the candidate with Mrs May offering a BINO will be interesting.DavidL said:
That's not very fair on Mackinlay is it? He should really have a word.TheScreamingEagles said:
Trial starts on Monday, verdict is due whilst Mike is on holiday.DavidL said:
Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?another_richard said:
OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
Could Nigel Farage become for the first mainland DUP MP since Andrew Hunter?
It wouldn’t be too outrageous of course. Thanet, like parts of Ulster is inhabited by the descendants of people who, with the support of the overlord. supplanted the indigenous population.0 -
Both, but my scenario was more if Parliament rejects the deal, extending Article 50 might be the only option.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Which deal?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic for the first time I can see Article 50 being extended.
Working in an industry that is going to be greatly impacted by Brexit, and is the largest contributor to the Exchequer, kicking the can down the road to October really doesn't really leave much time to implement the deal.
The withdrawal bill doesn't need a huge amount of implementation.
The final deal probably will.
If Mrs May had the numbers she'd schedule the vote for June/July, but she doesn't, hence the delay.0 -
Not sure she hasn't got the numbers, I suspect more she hasn't got the bill to put to the house.TheScreamingEagles said:
Both, but my scenario was more if Parliament rejects the deal, extending Article 50 might be the only option.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Which deal?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic for the first time I can see Article 50 being extended.
Working in an industry that is going to be greatly impacted by Brexit, and is the largest contributor to the Exchequer, kicking the can down the road to October really doesn't really leave much time to implement the deal.
The withdrawal bill doesn't need a huge amount of implementation.
The final deal probably will.
If Mrs May had the numbers she'd schedule the vote for June/July, but she doesn't, hence the delay.
But yes, I agree; if the house votes *down* the withdrawal bill, we will be asking for an A50 extension.0 -
Will May ever have the numbers to sign up to the backstop?TheScreamingEagles said:
Both, but my scenario was more if Parliament rejects the deal, extending Article 50 might be the only option.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Which deal?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic for the first time I can see Article 50 being extended.
Working in an industry that is going to be greatly impacted by Brexit, and is the largest contributor to the Exchequer, kicking the can down the road to October really doesn't really leave much time to implement the deal.
The withdrawal bill doesn't need a huge amount of implementation.
The final deal probably will.
If Mrs May had the numbers she'd schedule the vote for June/July, but she doesn't, hence the delay.0 -
Berlusconi will likely let Di Maio become PM with Salvini Foreign Minister but set himself up for one last shot at PM at the next general election especially with the centre left weak after being trounced in MarchPro_Rata said:Forza Italia not part of the proposed government, so this shouldn't in theory be the stopper on an administration being announced tomorrow, but I do think M5S will be feeling very twitchy at this news at such a sensitive moment.
https://www.thelocal.it/20180512/italy-court-lifts-ban-on-berlusconi-running-for-public-office-report
FI in general and Berlusconi in particular has been one of the main points of disagreement in the previous Lega / M5S talks.0 -
Huh. As the press reported it, they argued us *down* from "about two years" (vague I know) to 31 December 2020.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Yes, I thought it was all-important to the EU that we left the transition period by the end of the current budget period?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Huh. As the press reported it, they argued us *down* from "about two years" (vague I know) to 31 December 2020.CarlottaVance said:
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Which may not be granted.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Not sure she hasn't got the numbers, I suspect more she hasn't got the bill to put to the house.TheScreamingEagles said:
Both, but my scenario was more if Parliament rejects the deal, extending Article 50 might be the only option.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Which deal?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic for the first time I can see Article 50 being extended.
Working in an industry that is going to be greatly impacted by Brexit, and is the largest contributor to the Exchequer, kicking the can down the road to October really doesn't really leave much time to implement the deal.
The withdrawal bill doesn't need a huge amount of implementation.
The final deal probably will.
If Mrs May had the numbers she'd schedule the vote for June/July, but she doesn't, hence the delay.
But yes, I agree; if the house votes *down* the withdrawal bill, we will be asking for an A50 extension.0 -
I chose my words carefully.Sean_F said:
Which may not be granted.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Not sure she hasn't got the numbers, I suspect more she hasn't got the bill to put to the house.TheScreamingEagles said:
Both, but my scenario was more if Parliament rejects the deal, extending Article 50 might be the only option.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Which deal?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic for the first time I can see Article 50 being extended.
Working in an industry that is going to be greatly impacted by Brexit, and is the largest contributor to the Exchequer, kicking the can down the road to October really doesn't really leave much time to implement the deal.
The withdrawal bill doesn't need a huge amount of implementation.
The final deal probably will.
If Mrs May had the numbers she'd schedule the vote for June/July, but she doesn't, hence the delay.
But yes, I agree; if the house votes *down* the withdrawal bill, we will be asking for an A50 extension.
I suspect it would be granted, at the eleventh hour, and after many threats to the contrary0 -
And that is well paid, by legal aid standards.DavidL said:
Got to pay these school fees from something...another_richard said:
I thought there was meant to be something at some point - its a whole year now.DavidL said:
Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?another_richard said:
OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
But you lawyers like to let things drag on and on (at £300ph).
Actually, I am getting the privilege of a legal aid case at the moment which involves payment at a gross rate of £900 a day from which I have to pay commissions etc leaving about £650 before tax. I work that out at more like £50 an hour including preparation. Its my charitable donation for the year.0 -
No.TheScreamingEagles said:
A South Thanet by election with Farage as the candidate with Mrs May offering a BINO will be interesting.DavidL said:
That's not very fair on Mackinlay is it? He should really have a word.TheScreamingEagles said:
Trial starts on Monday, verdict is due whilst Mike is on holiday.DavidL said:
Was there not supposed to be a trial this month re Mackinlay?another_richard said:
OGH went on and on and on about Conservative spending in 2015 - it was apparently all going to be declared illegal and the election voided or something.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
Could Nigel Farage become for the first mainland DUP MP since Andrew Hunter?0 -
If this bet loses, it's not going to lose because of election expenses. Yes looks good value to me at these odds.0
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Data on racism in Europe....
http://metro.co.uk/2017/05/03/this-map-shows-the-most-racist-countries-in-europe-and-how-britain-ranks-6612608/0 -
What makes you say that? I've been trying to keep abreast of this and that take surprises me on two counts -HYUFD said:
Berlusconi will likely let Di Maio become PM with Salvini Foreign Minister but set himself up for one last shot at PM at the next general election especially with the centre left weak after being trounced in MarchPro_Rata said:Forza Italia not part of the proposed government, so this shouldn't in theory be the stopper on an administration being announced tomorrow, but I do think M5S will be feeling very twitchy at this news at such a sensitive moment.
https://www.thelocal.it/20180512/italy-court-lifts-ban-on-berlusconi-running-for-public-office-report
FI in general and Berlusconi in particular has been one of the main points of disagreement in the previous Lega / M5S talks.
(1) The idea of Berlusconi l'etting' anything happen would be anathema to Di Maio. FI, having agreed not to oppose, are outside the talks afai can tell, though how much Lega have been primed to represent their interests, e.g. in pushing for possession of the telecoms ministry, is moot.
(2) As well as FI"s acquiescence one of the things that brought Lega back to the table was Di Maio's concession of an honest broker PM. My reading was that Di Maio and Salvini would split Home and Foreign between them.
I think you are right on Berlusconi s longer game of a final return, but unless he massively improves FIs own polling, it will be contingent on Lega losing faith in the coalition ratherr than FI turning against it alone and, given Berlusconi's age, it would need to happen sooner rather than later.0 -
https://twitter.com/0Calamity/status/995250707572944896
Anyone heard/seen anything about this polling? Or is it just wild rumour?0 -
Let's assume (a fairly brave assumption) that this rumoured internal polling is real. There is absolutely no reason to assume that internal polling is more accurate than the published polling. Indeed, given the public polling shows a fairly consistent picture, I would be highly sceptical of any poll that showed a Labour lead of that sort without other corroborating evidence.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/0Calamity/status/995250707572944896
Anyone heard/seen anything about this polling? Or is it just wild rumour?0 -
Enough of Brexit, this is Eurovision night!
Cyprus seems favourite and should do well on the gratuitous flesh and good song factor, but not much value. Israel for weirdness, but not to win. Norway has good staging and the Scandi factor.
But Eurovision voting is notoriously unpredictable, so the value for me looks to be a "bad each way" approach, and top 10's
I fancy top 10'S for Slovenia, Serbia, Moldova, Italy, Ukraine, Hungary and Finland.0 -
We had a real poll earlier this month.. Would that be any use as a guide?AlastairMeeks said:
Let's assume (a fairly brave assumption) that this rumoured internal polling is real. There is absolutely no reason to assume that internal polling is more accurate than the published polling. Indeed, given the public polling shows a fairly consistent picture, I would be highly sceptical of any poll that showed a Labour lead of that sort without other corroborating evidence.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/0Calamity/status/995250707572944896
Anyone heard/seen anything about this polling? Or is it just wild rumour?0 -
No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.0
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Finland top 10 for me too. Got Evs before SF1 on that.Foxy said:Enough of Brexit, this is Eurovision night!
Cyprus seems favourite and should do well on the gratuitous flesh and good song factor, but not much value. Israel for weirdness, but not to win. Norway has good staging and the Scandi factor.
But Eurovision voting is notoriously unpredictable, so the value for me looks to be a "bad each way" approach, and top 10's
I fancy top 10'S for Slovenia, Serbia, Moldova, Italy, Ukraine, Hungary and Finland.0 -
The UK finished higher in 2017 than we did in 2016. Because of Brexit? Or Despite Brexit?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/9952300845408788480 -
Yeah, they are 17 points ahead according to that Tory internal poll.Pulpstar said:No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.
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https://twitter.com/Geoelte_Spinne/status/995177431223988224Sunil_Prasannan said:The UK finished higher in 2017 than we did in 2016. Because of Brexit? Or Despite Brexit?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/9952300845408788480 -
The most likely reason we don't leave on 29 March 2019 is because there is a short extension. I've always felt a two to six week extension was possible, and maybe even probable.AlastairMeeks said:If this bet loses, it's not going to lose because of election expenses. Yes looks good value to me at these odds.
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This was old polling in November 2017Pulpstar said:No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.
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In a parallel universe where I want to stop Brexit, I would be heartily annoyed by a Stop Brexit movement that focuses on expenses declarations and wacky conspiracy theories rather than, say, trying to work out why they lost and then formulating a positive argument for EU membership.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.0 -
I did rather like the Czechs too.bigjohnowls said:
Finland top 10 for me too. Got Evs before SF1 on that.Foxy said:Enough of Brexit, this is Eurovision night!
Cyprus seems favourite and should do well on the gratuitous flesh and good song factor, but not much value. Israel for weirdness, but not to win. Norway has good staging and the Scandi factor.
But Eurovision voting is notoriously unpredictable, so the value for me looks to be a "bad each way" approach, and top 10's
I fancy top 10'S for Slovenia, Serbia, Moldova, Italy, Ukraine, Hungary and Finland.
Warning, my Eurovision punditry is not great!0 -
If so, Labour would surely have taken Wandsworth, Westminster, Barnet, Hillingdon, and Kensington.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, they are 17 points ahead according to that Tory internal poll.Pulpstar said:No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.
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Indeed.Sean_F said:
If so, Labour would surely have taken Wandsworth, Westminster, Barnet, Hillingdon, and Kensington.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, they are 17 points ahead according to that Tory internal poll.Pulpstar said:No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.
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Yes - a celebration of European diversity in all its greatness not a celebration of EU conformity. More than a third of nations competing aren't even in the EU. Europe is a whole lot more than the EU!AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/Geoelte_Spinne/status/995177431223988224Sunil_Prasannan said:The UK finished higher in 2017 than we did in 2016. Because of Brexit? Or Despite Brexit?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/9952300845408788480 -
Ah, but this is all part of a cunning plan to lure the Tories into a false sense of security.Sean_F said:
If so, Labour would surely have taken Wandsworth, Westminster, Barnet, Hillingdon, and Kensington.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, they are 17 points ahead according to that Tory internal poll.Pulpstar said:No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.
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What's so funny is how many Remainers are convinced this is the best way to troll Leavers, because they don't understand them and assume they are driven by raw xenophobia.brendan16 said:
Yes - a celebration of European diversity in all its greatness not a celebration of EU conformity. More than a third of nations competing aren't even in the EU. Europe is a whole lot more than the EU!AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/Geoelte_Spinne/status/995177431223988224Sunil_Prasannan said:The UK finished higher in 2017 than we did in 2016. Because of Brexit? Or Despite Brexit?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/995230084540878848
I love Eurovision.0 -
The dastardly electorate. We fell for that last year; won't get fooled again!rcs1000 said:
Ah, but this is all part of a cunning plan to lure the Tories into a false sense of security.Sean_F said:
If so, Labour would surely have taken Wandsworth, Westminster, Barnet, Hillingdon, and Kensington.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, they are 17 points ahead according to that Tory internal poll.Pulpstar said:No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.
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TrueCasino_Royale said:What's so funny is how many Remainers are convinced this is the best way to troll Leavers, because they don't understand them
Not raw.... finely maturedCasino_Royale said:and assume they are driven by raw xenophobia.
Enjoy your eveningCasino_Royale said:I love Eurovision.
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The argument that the referendum was somehow "unfair" is a nonsense.RobD said:
Remain spent a whole lot more of that, and that's not even including the £9mn:Scott_P said:
Leave spent £12m...RoyalBlue said:In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/09/arron-banks-company-provided-12m-of-services-to-leaveeu
https://i.redd.it/cc19pq4y0xn01.jpg
Virtually the whole business, economic arts, and broadcast establishment was full square behind Remain, together with almost all other World leaders, and the case for Leaving the EU got battered with heavy artillery every single day in the papers and media. It was relentless and, for a long time, I thought Leave would get crushed.
Leave's offence is that it won. Nothing more, nothing less.0 -
Dr. Foxy, are those tips, or chatter?
I did read some fellow (Twitter) suggesting Serbia to win at 501.0 -
That sounds like a nice place. Which arguments do you favour there to make the positive case for the EU?Essexit said:
In a parallel universe where I want to stop Brexit, I would be heartily annoyed by a Stop Brexit movement that focuses on expenses declarations and wacky conspiracy theories rather than, say, trying to work out why they lost and then formulating a positive argument for EU membership.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.0 -
The most likely outcome is, in my view, long transitions for the UK out of most EU arrangements until the mid 2020s, combined with a long-term half-in/half-out relationship.edmundintokyo said:
I'd be careful with that. The most common way for contentious EU arguments to get worked out is to kick the can down the road a bit. I know there are some procedural hurdles, but if you trust everyone to work out how to muddle through and avoid a car crash then you should be betting on an extension.another_richard said:
I put my trust in the Robert Smithson / Nick Palmer view that things get worked out in the end and beforehand we get a bit of acting and a lot of posturing.Foxy said:
While campaign skullduggery is of minority interest, the governments disarray is more significant in the Brexit market, as it seems increasingly that we may need an extension to get past the governments internal deadlock.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9mn attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.
Well its easier to put trust in that than put trust in our politicians, Sir Humphreys and 'expert' diplomats.
That will make winning GE2022 fairly crucial for the Conservatives but, also, probably too late for Labour to RON with the EU if it wins.
It might just extend those transactions, and opt-in to some extra EU programmes, though.0 -
Ross Clark wrote good article on her a couple of weeks ago that convincingly argued she'd already reached her "conclusions" long before arriving in the UK.nunuone said:0 -
The Iraq War and not joining the Euro probably were factors.Sunil_Prasannan said:The UK finished higher in 2017 than we did in 2016. Because of Brexit? Or Despite Brexit?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/995230084540878848
Or maybe it's just we stopped caring.0 -
Well if I thought those arguments existed, maybe I wouldn't have been pounding the pavements for Vote Leave this time two years ago. One of the (possibly apocryphal but highly believable) stories of the BSE campaign was that they tried to formulate a response to our '5 Positive Reasons to Leave the EU' leaflet but had to give up.williamglenn said:
That sounds like a nice place. Which arguments do you favour there to make the positive case for the EU?Essexit said:
In a parallel universe where I want to stop Brexit, I would be heartily annoyed by a Stop Brexit movement that focuses on expenses declarations and wacky conspiracy theories rather than, say, trying to work out why they lost and then formulating a positive argument for EU membership.RoyalBlue said:I do wish OGH would stop flogging this dead horse. If Brexit is stopped, it will not be because a political campaign screwed up their expenses declaration.
In any case, the amounts involved are dwarfed by the government’s £9 million attempt to tip the scales in Remain’s favour.0 -
I'm astounded - truly astounded - that all the Leavers who were entirely comfortable with a referendum campaign fought on pandering to xenophobia are now highly resistant to the UN report suggesting that racism has become more normalised in Britain since the referendum.0
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I rest my case!Beverley_C said:
TrueCasino_Royale said:What's so funny is how many Remainers are convinced this is the best way to troll Leavers, because they don't understand them
Not raw.... finely maturedCasino_Royale said:and assume they are driven by raw xenophobia.
Enjoy your eveningCasino_Royale said:I love Eurovision.
Thank you.0 -
The basic qualification for being a UN Special Rapporteur is that you must to the Left of Corbyn.Casino_Royale said:
Ross Clark wrote good article on her a couple of weeks ago that convincingly argued she'd already reached her "conclusions" long before arriving in the UK.nunuone said:0 -
I follow TSEs tips: he strikes me as knowing what he's talking about.Foxy said:
I did rather like the Czechs too.bigjohnowls said:
Finland top 10 for me too. Got Evs before SF1 on that.Foxy said:Enough of Brexit, this is Eurovision night!
Cyprus seems favourite and should do well on the gratuitous flesh and good song factor, but not much value. Israel for weirdness, but not to win. Norway has good staging and the Scandi factor.
But Eurovision voting is notoriously unpredictable, so the value for me looks to be a "bad each way" approach, and top 10's
I fancy top 10'S for Slovenia, Serbia, Moldova, Italy, Ukraine, Hungary and Finland.
Warning, my Eurovision punditry is not great!
I've also put £4 on the UK at 290/1 for sh*ts and giggles. I don't think our song is actually that bad.
Not that that matters.0 -
Christ.Sean_F said:
The basic qualification for being a UN Special Rapporteur is that you must to the Left of Corbyn.Casino_Royale said:
Ross Clark wrote good article on her a couple of weeks ago that convincingly argued she'd already reached her "conclusions" long before arriving in the UK.nunuone said:0 -
Brexit is only a small part of her report. It's clear that even if we'd voted Remain, she'd still report that the UK is a racist hellhole.AlastairMeeks said:I'm astounded - truly astounded - that all the Leavers who were entirely comfortable with a referendum campaign fought on pandering to xenophobia are now highly resistant to the UN report suggesting that racism has become more normalised in Britain since the referendum.
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Estonia and Israel is where most of my Eurovision money has gone.0
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Mr. F, about 10 years ago the UK was criticised by the UN for breaching the human rights of Dale Farm 'travellers' (an inaccurate term, which appears to be the PC version of gypsies nowadays). The reason? After a decade of illegal squatting and ignoring orders to leave, they were finally evicted.
Oh noes! Enforcing property laws = NAZIS!0 -
IT WAS NOVEMBER 2017Sean_F said:
If so, Labour would surely have taken Wandsworth, Westminster, Barnet, Hillingdon, and Kensington.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, they are 17 points ahead according to that Tory internal poll.Pulpstar said:No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.
Paul Brand
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Public polling might put Labour only 2 points ahead of Tories, but one senior Conservative MP told me this week that internal polling shows a 12 point gap. Blue panic.
9:21 AM - 19 Nov 20170 -
The standard terminology I have seen in local government is 'Gypsy and Travellers', so I don't think it is a PC thing, since Gypsy is still regularly used.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F, about 10 years ago the UK was criticised by the UN for breaching the human rights of Dale Farm 'travellers' (an inaccurate term, which appears to be the PC version of gypsies nowadays)
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One advantage of leaving the EU is that we'll be able to call Travellers by their proper names, gypos and pikies.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F, about 10 years ago the UK was criticised by the UN for breaching the human rights of Dale Farm 'travellers' (an inaccurate term, which appears to be the PC version of gypsies nowadays). The reason? After a decade of illegal squatting and ignoring orders to leave, they were finally evicted.
Oh noes! Enforcing property laws = NAZIS!0 -
You're welcome you eurovisionophile youCasino_Royale said:
I rest my case!Beverley_C said:
TrueCasino_Royale said:What's so funny is how many Remainers are convinced this is the best way to troll Leavers, because they don't understand them
Not raw.... finely maturedCasino_Royale said:and assume they are driven by raw xenophobia.
Enjoy your eveningCasino_Royale said:I love Eurovision.
Thank you.
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If internal polling is accurate, it should match public polling.bigjohnowls said:
IT WAS NOVEMBER 2017Sean_F said:
If so, Labour would surely have taken Wandsworth, Westminster, Barnet, Hillingdon, and Kensington.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, they are 17 points ahead according to that Tory internal poll.Pulpstar said:No way on God's green earth Labour is 12 pts ahead.
Paul Brand
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@PaulBrandITV
Follow Follow @PaulBrandITV
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Public polling might put Labour only 2 points ahead of Tories, but one senior Conservative MP told me this week that internal polling shows a 12 point gap. Blue panic.
9:21 AM - 19 Nov 20170 -
It's also just bollocks.Sean_F said:
Brexit is only a small part of her report. It's clear that even if we'd voted Remain, she'd still report that the UK is a racist hellhole.AlastairMeeks said:I'm astounded - truly astounded - that all the Leavers who were entirely comfortable with a referendum campaign fought on pandering to xenophobia are now highly resistant to the UN report suggesting that racism has become more normalised in Britain since the referendum.
The UK is one of the most racially tolerant and open places in Europe, probably the most.
Go anywhere else in Europe and you can see and feel the difference.0 -
Evening ermine wearers of PB.
I wonder what "delights" us await us in the Sunday papers tonight?
The pattern that has been emerging recently is that REMAIN generally gets all their hits in through the Sunday papers... And then it all fizzles out through the week as LEAVE strike back.
Lets see. 0 -
If you want to know whether Britain has become a more intolerant place post Brexit, simply ask an immigrant.
(BTW those posts declaring smugly that we are less intolerant than other European countries is a classic PB Tory marker. Add it to the list Anazina started last night).0 -
My problem with Eurovision is this: the songs from Finland and Israel are crap, and very camp. Cyprus is only marginally better, and way too short. So I don't want to back any of them. But they are also very Eurovision. So I am probably wrong.
Songs I think are actually good: Finland, Bulgaria, Norway and Australia. And the UK isn't awful.
Germany and France aren't bad either. But I don't think the German one is distinctive enough, and the French sign in French, which doesn't help them much.0 -
Only 60 minutes left till Eurovision!0
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Mr. Eagles, outrageous post. It's spelt 'pikeys'.
(A few years ago Brundle was forced to apologise when he criticised a track surface, as if it had been laid by pikeys).
Incidentally, I've backed D. Foxy's Eurovision suggestions. I hope Serbia do well.
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I hope TSE is wearing his dancing shoes.Sunil_Prasannan said:Only 60 minutes left till Eurovision!
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Finland is Crap but you like it????Casino_Royale said:My problem with Eurovision is this: the songs from Finland and Israel are crap, and very camp. Cyprus is only marginally better, and way too short. So I don't want to back any of them. But they are also very Eurovision. So I am probably wrong.
Songs I think are actually good: Finland, Bulgaria, Norway and Australia. And the UK isn't awful.
Germany and France aren't bad either. But I don't think the German one is distinctive enough, and the French sign in French, which doesn't help them much.0 -
Or ask anyone who looks like an immigrant.Gardenwalker said:If you want to know whether Britain has become a more intolerant place post Brexit, simply ask an immigrant.
(BTW those posts declaring smugly that we are less intolerant than other European countries is a classic PB Tory marker. Add it to the list Anazina started last night).0
