politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With just about all the LE2018 results now in the clear winner

Is it a landslide for the LDs? No.

Is it good news with almost now downsides? Yes.

Can other parties say that - definitely not.

Why Barnsley Central ? Just heard Dan Jarvis on Look North say he is doing both jobs in much the same way a cabinet minister does.

I think where the Lib Dems struggle is turning bin collections into national vote share. This is a good result for them, but last year they achieved 18% NEV in May then got 7.5% in June. They need to start translating local success into national success.

Mike Smithson in 'Lib Dems did well' shock

Yorkcity said:

Why Barnsley Central ? Just heard Dan Jarvis on Look North say he is doing both jobs in much the same way a cabinet minister does.

As the Mayoralty is presently a blank canvas it's probably a cabinet minister without portfolio.

MaxPB said:

I think where the Lib Dems struggle is turning bin collections into national vote share. This is a good result for them, but last year they achieved 18% NEV in May then got 7.5% in June. They need to start translating local success into national success.

I think that will come with time if they show they are still a viable national party. And locals are a good way of doing that.

One way they skilfully prospered in the Blair years was by posing as the one truly national party. So they were the non-toxic, non-establishment Unionists in Scotland and Wales, the party of the soft right to keep Labour honest in the north and the party of the soft left to challenge the Tories in the south.

Now the divide is metropolitan vs the rest and as these elections show (even if less starkly than expected) it is a pretty formidable divide. So they could easily pose as the real, sensible, Remainer alternative with some centrist social democratic views in the big conurbations, while showing as the non-batshit-crazy alternative to the Tories elsewhere.

Of course, such balancing only works in opposition. It was more buggered than a reluctant Turkish conscript the moment they entered government and had to make actual choices (and for all their qualities, they made some poor ones, especially on tuition fees). Yet for fifteen years it worked superbly and previously for 25 years it had worked effectively enough to keep them alive. There is no reason why it couldn't work again.

JackW said:

Yorkcity said:

Why Barnsley Central ? Just heard Dan Jarvis on Look North say he is doing both jobs in much the same way a cabinet minister does.

As the Mayoralty is presently a blank canvas it's probably a cabinet minister without portfolio.

Very true , they should get their act together and have a Yorkshire mayor.

Can not see that , but they should be able to get South Yorkshire to work.

MaxPB said:

I think where the Lib Dems struggle is turning bin collections into national vote share. This is a good result for them, but last year they achieved 18% NEV in May then got 7.5% in June. They need to start translating local success into national success.

The LibDems have disappeared from large parts of the country.

As an example in NE Lincolnshire they won seven wards in 2006:

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2006/112/

this year they had a total of three candidates:

https://www.nelincs.gov.uk/councillors-and-democracy/elections-and-electoral-registration/election-results/local-elections-3rd-may-2018/

Jo Johnson on Ch4 defending the reinstatement of the racist.

Clear winners? No. Better than flatlining? Yes.

The Lib Dems can clearly claim South-West London as a stronghold. It in no way compensates for their losses in the South West or parts of Scotland in recent years.

JackW said:

RobD said:

flubadub said:

Mike Smithson in 'Lib Dems did well' shock

They did so better than all the rest. After so many years you can’t blame him for celebrating a bit!

If you'd have managed a positive Burnley FC comment in that post I think OGH would have recommended you be placed on his next honey trap visit to the Russian embassy !!

Drat. Must try better.

SandyRentool said:

Jo Johnson on Ch4 defending the reinstatement of the racist.

Snookered himself there ....

MaxPB said:

Roger said:

According to Ch4 News 'Boris tried to call a vote at last weeks cabinet about the customs union which Mrs May would have lost and just two days after losing her Home Secretary it would have been a humiliation'.

It is completely baffling why she doesn't sack him. Having a psychopathic back-stabber in her cabinet must be debilitating.

Because if she sacks him she will immediately face a leadership election. He has the backing of the ERG.

ERG?

HYUFD said:

The LDs are projected to be on 16% nationally, ten years ago they got 25% in the 2008 Local Elections.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2008

That today's results are seen as a relative triumph for the LDs shows how far they have fallen from their peak

You're a strange one for sure. Keep it up though... you make me laugh.

Yorkcity said:

ydoethur said:

Roger said:

According to Ch4 News 'Boris tried to call a vote at last weeks cabinet about the customs union which Mrs May would have lost and just two days after losing her Home Secretary it would have been a humiliation'.

It is completely baffling why she doesn't sack him. Having a psychopathic back-stabber in her cabinet must be debilitating.

I think she views Boris as Lyndon Johnson viewed Edgar Hoover - she knows he's useless, lazy, dishonest and incompetent but she'd rather have him inside pissing out than on the outside pissing in.

Nice way to describe our next PM.

While things are desperate, I don't think they're so desperate that we're going to turn to Hoover!

Roger said:

MaxPB said:

Roger said:

According to Ch4 News 'Boris tried to call a vote at last weeks cabinet about the customs union which Mrs May would have lost and just two days after losing her Home Secretary it would have been a humiliation'.

It is completely baffling why she doesn't sack him. Having a psychopathic back-stabber in her cabinet must be debilitating.

Because if she sacks him she will immediately face a leadership election. He has the backing of the ERG.

ERG?

European Research Group. It has about 75 MPs on it, more than enough to trigger a leadership election that will fatally wound May.

SandyRentool said:

Oh, and the LibDems didn't field a single candidate in Craven.

Deary me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claire_Brooks will be turning in her grave.

Yorkcity said:

SandyRentool said:

Jo Johnson on Ch4 defending the reinstatement of the racist.

What was the defence ?

She's been on an awareness course, so everything is fine. But Jo hadn't actually read what she'd posted before he defended her.

What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

Richard_Nabavi said:

What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.

SandyRentool said:

Yorkcity said:

SandyRentool said:

Jo Johnson on Ch4 defending the reinstatement of the racist.

What was the defence ?

She's been on an awareness course, so everything is fine. But Jo hadn't actually read what she'd posted before he defended her.

There must be easy money to be made in awareness courses for politicians.

another_richard said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.

They need to secure some territory, any territory, before they can worry about breaking out wider again.

Though that is a problem for them. Plenty of areas they cannot play the 'only the LDs can beat X here' card, as they have been supplanted.

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Off topic, I bought a pretty massive position in IAG after the Brexit kerfuffle a couple of years ago. I actually forgot about it until now because the results came out this morning and they are primed to buy Norwegian. I'm sitting on a pretty huge gain, does anyone know the implications of selling the stake whilst I'm still resident in Switzerland? I don't mind paying any UK CGT due, but I don't know if I'd be liable.

Where are you tax resident? If it's Switzerland then you will need to pay CGT there.

Yes Switzerland, but I'll be back in the UK before the end of the year. The CGT rate here is the same as income tax which is much lower than the 28% I'd end up paying in the UK.

I just don't want to be liable for the rest on entry to the UK.

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

So 1.67% of those who tried to vote in the trial areas were not able to do so because they did not have the ID required. Extrapolate that to a general election and you are looking at around 500,000 people being denied the right to cast a ballot. That is an extraordinary number.

It's extraordinary because it's wrong, and extrapolating a first-time pilot to a GE is brave.

1.67% of 30 million is 500,000+. Voter ID needs a lot more work.

Voter ID and the Home Office - What could possibly go wrong ?!

Richard_Nabavi said:

another_richard said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.

That's another way of describing it! But resources are finite, and they've got to start somewhere.

But there's a danger of reinforcing their own perspectives and prejudices.

SW London is rather niche.

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

Tory Remain areas. You have to start somewhere.

Labour ones too by the looks of things in Harringey.

My guess is that Haringey was more a Momentum issue.

Danny565 said:

LOL at Mr Smithson trying to present 16% as a massive triumph.

I remember when the consensus was that Clegg had flopped in his first set of local elections with 'only' 25%.

Because we can only judge a current situation in reference to the past, not the present. It's clearly progress. Can it be sustained? Can it be taken further so they are closer to where they have been in the past? Unclear, and I don't think their chances are high, but progress is still progress.

another_richard said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

another_richard said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.

That's another way of describing it! But resources are finite, and they've got to start somewhere.

But there's a danger of reinforcing their own perspectives and prejudices.

SW London is rather niche.

There is definitely some mileage for them in targeting the 55%+ remain areas. I think they will do well even if they are starting from a low base. They could probably get back to 30-35 seats in 2022 by doing that, assuming Jez continues to pursue Brexit as he is now.

Meanwhile, Mackem Tories reinstate a winning candidate who described Diane Abbott as a "filthy, bulbous pig".


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-44004241

another_richard said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

another_richard said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.

That's another way of describing it! But resources are finite, and they've got to start somewhere.

But there's a danger of reinforcing their own perspectives and prejudices.

SW London is rather niche.

Haven’t they done well in South Cambridge, too?

Middle class alert.

I have just opened the fridge and discovered a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza.
I believe the nanny must have left it there and presume it was fed to my 3 year old for lunch.

Thoughts?

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

So 1.67% of those who tried to vote in the trial areas were not able to do so because they did not have the ID required. Extrapolate that to a general election and you are looking at around 500,000 people being denied the right to cast a ballot. That is an extraordinary number.

It's extraordinary because it's wrong, and extrapolating a first-time pilot to a GE is brave.

1.67% of 30 million is 500,000+. Voter ID needs a lot more work.

The 1.67% figure is not substantiated, is based on a tiny sample, and we know for certain it's wrong because it didn't take account of people coming back later.

But, even if it's roughly right, that's not bad for a first-time trial of something completely new.

Incidentally, they also observed one case of possible personation, or at least confusion

https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/

As a trial I find the government guilty of a total and complete waste of time, effort and money. Send the prisoner down ....

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

Tory Remain areas. You have to start somewhere.

Labour ones too by the looks of things in Harringey.

They don't seem to have made much progress in Camden, Hackney, Hammersmith, Lambeth, Islington, Lewisham, Southwark and Waltham Forrest.

Sky has just updated its projection.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/992476749467406336?s=21

MaxPB said:

Gardenwalker said:

Middle class alert.

I have just opened the fridge and discovered a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza.
I believe the nanny must have left it there and presume it was fed to my 3 year old for lunch.

Thoughts?

Sack her and make sure to have her deported. That is unforgivable.

Heh. I would but she’s Northern Irish.
Guess I have to wait for the final customs union solution to play out.

MaxPB said:

another_richard said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

another_richard said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.

That's another way of describing it! But resources are finite, and they've got to start somewhere.

But there's a danger of reinforcing their own perspectives and prejudices.

SW London is rather niche.

There is definitely some mileage for them in targeting the 55%+ remain areas. I think they will do well even if they are starting from a low base. They could probably get back to 30-35 seats in 2022 by doing that, assuming Jez continues to pursue Brexit as he is now.

They'd need to make hefty gains from Labour to do that.

And while Corbyn's promising the goodies on student debt and housing what can the LibDems offer which is better ?

RoyalBlue said:

Clear winners? No. Better than flatlining? Yes.

The Lib Dems can clearly claim South-West London as a stronghold. It in no way compensates for their losses in the South West or parts of Scotland in recent years.

To be fair they made a decent comeback in Scotland at the last GE, winning back 3 seats and missing out on a 4th by 2 votes

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

Tory Remain areas. You have to start somewhere.

Or more former strong Lib Dem areas....causation vs correlation...

SandyRentool said:

Oh, and the LibDems didn't field a single candidate in Craven.

That's absolutely craven.

Anyone know how accurate the you gov . London poll was wrt the actual votes????

Gardenwalker said:

Middle class alert.

I have just opened the fridge and discovered a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza.
I believe the nanny must have left it there and presume it was fed to my 3 year old for lunch.

Thoughts?

Make her watch The Last Jedi 155 times playing a tape saying 'Laura Dern's acting is the Hawaiian pizza of cinema' so she understands the enormity of her offence.

ydoethur said:

Gardenwalker said:

Middle class alert.

I have just opened the fridge and discovered a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza.
I believe the nanny must have left it there and presume it was fed to my 3 year old for lunch.

Thoughts?

Make her watch The Last Jedi 155 times playing a tape saying 'Laura Dern's acting is the Hawaiian pizza of cinema' so she understands the enormity of her offence.

I wouldn't wish a forced viewing of the Last Jedi on my worst enemy....

ydoethur said:

Gardenwalker said:

Middle class alert.

I have just opened the fridge and discovered a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza.
I believe the nanny must have left it there and presume it was fed to my 3 year old for lunch.

Thoughts?

Make her watch The Last Jedi 155 times playing a tape saying 'Laura Dern's acting is the Hawaiian pizza of cinema' so she understands the enormity of her offence.

A cruel and unual punishment. Though deserved for that level of offence.

MaxPB said:

another_richard said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

Tory Remain areas. You have to start somewhere.

Labour ones too by the looks of things in Harringey.

They don't seem to have made much progress in Camden, Hackney, Hammersmith, Lambeth, Islington, Lewisham, Southwark and Waltham Forrest.

Look at the specific wards where they made gains in Haringey and it looks like the same gains they made vs the Tories in SW London. Affluent, remain voting areas. Those that you mention have a much higher level of social housing than the likes of Muswell Hill and Crouch End where the Lib Dems did well.

The issue is that Labour have such a huge lead wherever there is social housing that it is almost impossible to unseat them without some kind of right to buy scheme (which explains Dave's/George's plan for housing association RTB).

The LibDems have often done well in middle class wards which are in districts permanently dominated by Labour.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2018/05/04/0505-MATT-GALLERY-WEB-P1_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqqVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.png?imwidth=1240

titters

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Off topic, I bought a pretty massive position in IAG after the Brexit kerfuffle a couple of years ago. I actually forgot about it until now because the results came out this morning and they are primed to buy Norwegian. I'm sitting on a pretty huge gain, does anyone know the implications of selling the stake whilst I'm still resident in Switzerland? I don't mind paying any UK CGT due, but I don't know if I'd be liable.

Where are you tax resident? If it's Switzerland then you will need to pay CGT there.

Yes Switzerland, but I'll be back in the UK before the end of the year. The CGT rate here is the same as income tax which is much lower than the 28% I'd end up paying in the UK.

I just don't want to be liable for the rest on entry to the UK.

20%. 28% only for carried interest gains, residential property gains.

The Lib Dems (3) have been eliminated from Hackney Council. It’s a bit sad that in liberal Islington and Hackney, not a Lib Dem is now to be found.

I am envious of the good burghers of Crouch End.

Can we have PR for local elections please?

PClipp said:

Danny565 said:

kle4 said:

Danny565 said:

LOL at Mr Smithson trying to present 16% as a massive triumph.

I remember when the consensus was that Clegg had flopped in his first set of local elections with 'only' 25%.

Because we can only judge a current situation in reference to the past, not the present. It's clearly progress. Can it be sustained? Can it be taken further so they are closer to where they have been in the past? Unclear, and I don't think their chances are high, but progress is still progress.

It's not particularly progress even compared to the recent past. 16% is less than the 18% they got last year in the local elections, and up a bit from 13% that they got when these seats were last contested in 2014.

I guess the definition of "triumph" depends on what your expectations were. If one was expecting the Lib Dems to fold completely, then I suppose these results are a "triumph" - they 're clearly going to have some presence in local councils, and probably at Westminster, for years to come. But in terms of recovering to their strength of the pre-Coalition years (let alone challenging either of the Big Two, which was their big goal not so long ago), I see very little in this set of results that indicates that.

Patience, Danny. It`s like a plane taking off... you know.... slow at first, and then.... whoom!

Whoom! Bang! Crash! ?????

Gardenwalker said:

The Lib Dems (3) have been eliminated from Hackney Council. It’s a bit sad that in liberal Islington and Hackney, not a Lib Dem is now to be found.

I am envious of the good burghers of Crouch End.

Can we have PR for local elections please?

While it would be an excellent reform, I think politicians are too scared it would lead to PR at Westminster as well.

Richard_Nabavi said:

another_richard said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.

That's another way of describing it! But resources are finite, and they've got to start somewhere.

Indeed - they have correctly spent the last couple of elections addressing the risk of being wiped out entirely. There’s a good chance they will continue to recover - memories of the coalition are beginning to fade. Thanks to Brexit it feels like a bygone era.