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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With just about all the LE2018 results now in the clear winner

SystemSystem Posts: 12,256
edited May 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With just about all the LE2018 results now in the clear winners were the LDs gaining most seats and councils

BBC News

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Is it a landslide for the LDs? No.

    Is it good news with almost now downsides? Yes.

    Can other parties say that - definitely not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,595
    The LDs are projected to be on 16% nationally, ten years ago they got 25% in the 2008 Local Elections.


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2008

    That today's results are seen as a relative triumph for the LDs shows how far they have fallen from their peak
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Why Barnsley Central ? Just heard Dan Jarvis on Look North say he is doing both jobs in much the same way a cabinet minister does.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    HYUFD said:

    The LDs are projected to be on 16% nationally, ten years ago they got 25% in the 2008 Local Elections.


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2008

    That today's results are seen as a relative triumph for the LDs shows how far they have fallen from their peak

    Indeed. Though they have to start somewhere. It would be churlish not to acknowledge they are moving forwards. Tory Remain areas where they can squeeze the Labour vote. At least they now know where to prioritise.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    I think where the Lib Dems struggle is turning bin collections into national vote share. This is a good result for them, but last year they achieved 18% NEV in May then got 7.5% in June. They need to start translating local success into national success.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,137
    Certainly they are the only ones who should be unambiguously happy with the results. The Tories didn't suffer a wipeout but this isn't a party reaching beyond its enlarged core. Labour are hardly even managing that.

    The one fly in the ointment is if this persuades Cable - who looks old, staid and out of touch at a time when vigour, imagination and empathy are needed - to stay on. I hope he doesn't, that he says he has brought the party back from the brink and now it needs a fresh impetus, but for all his qualities he's never come across as self aware.
  • flubadubflubadub Posts: 20
    Mike Smithson in 'Lib Dems did well' shock
  • flubadubflubadub Posts: 20
    Mike Smithson in 'Lib Dems did well' shock
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Yorkcity said:

    Why Barnsley Central ? Just heard Dan Jarvis on Look North say he is doing both jobs in much the same way a cabinet minister does.

    As the Mayoralty is presently a blank canvas it's probably a cabinet minister without portfolio.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,897
    Yorkcity said:

    Why Barnsley Central ? Just heard Dan Jarvis on Look North say he is doing both jobs in much the same way a cabinet minister does.

    That should be easy for a man who gave a London address on his election nomination statement.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,137
    MaxPB said:

    I think where the Lib Dems struggle is turning bin collections into national vote share. This is a good result for them, but last year they achieved 18% NEV in May then got 7.5% in June. They need to start translating local success into national success.

    I think that will come with time if they show they are still a viable national party. And locals are a good way of doing that.

    One way they skilfully prospered in the Blair years was by posing as the one truly national party. So they were the non-toxic, non-establishment Unionists in Scotland and Wales, the party of the soft right to keep Labour honest in the north and the party of the soft left to challenge the Tories in the south.

    Now the divide is metropolitan vs the rest and as these elections show (even if less starkly than expected) it is a pretty formidable divide. So they could easily pose as the real, sensible, Remainer alternative with some centrist social democratic views in the big conurbations, while showing as the non-batshit-crazy alternative to the Tories elsewhere.

    Of course, such balancing only works in opposition. It was more buggered than a reluctant Turkish conscript the moment they entered government and had to make actual choices (and for all their qualities, they made some poor ones, especially on tuition fees). Yet for fifteen years it worked superbly and previously for 25 years it had worked effectively enough to keep them alive. There is no reason why it couldn't work again.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,133
    flubadub said:

    Mike Smithson in 'Lib Dems did well' shock

    They did so better than all the rest. After so many years you can’t blame him for celebrating a bit!
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    JackW said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Why Barnsley Central ? Just heard Dan Jarvis on Look North say he is doing both jobs in much the same way a cabinet minister does.

    As the Mayoralty is presently a blank canvas it's probably a cabinet minister without portfolio.
    Very true , they should get their act together and have a Yorkshire mayor.

    Can not see that , but they should be able to get South Yorkshire to work.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited May 2018
    According to Ch4 News 'Boris tried to call a vote at last weeks cabinet about the customs union which Mrs May would have lost and just two days after losing her Home Secretary it would have been a humiliation'.

    It is completely baffling why she doesn't sack him. Having a psychopathic back-stabber in her cabinet must be debilitating.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,897
    MaxPB said:

    I think where the Lib Dems struggle is turning bin collections into national vote share. This is a good result for them, but last year they achieved 18% NEV in May then got 7.5% in June. They need to start translating local success into national success.

    The LibDems have disappeared from large parts of the country.

    As an example in NE Lincolnshire they won seven wards in 2006:

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2006/112/

    this year they had a total of three candidates:

    https://www.nelincs.gov.uk/councillors-and-democracy/elections-and-electoral-registration/election-results/local-elections-3rd-may-2018/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,137
    Roger said:

    According to Ch4 News 'Boris tried to call a vote at last weeks cabinet about the customs union which Mrs May would have lost and just two days after losing her Home Secretary it would have been a humiliation'.

    It is completely baffling why she doesn't sack him. Having a psychopathic back-stabber in her cabinet must be debilitating.

    I think she views Boris as Lyndon Johnson viewed Edgar Hoover - she knows he's useless, lazy, dishonest and incompetent but she'd rather have him inside pissing out than on the outside pissing in.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,372
    Jo Johnson on Ch4 defending the reinstatement of the racist.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    flubadub said:

    Mike Smithson in 'Lib Dems did well' shock

    They did so better than all the rest. After so many years you can’t blame him for celebrating a bit!
    If you'd have managed a positive Burnley FC comment in that post I think OGH would have recommended you be placed on his next honey trap visit to the Russian embassy !!
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Clear winners? No. Better than flatlining? Yes.

    The Lib Dems can clearly claim South-West London as a stronghold. It in no way compensates for their losses in the South West or parts of Scotland in recent years.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    Roger said:

    According to Ch4 News 'Boris tried to call a vote at last weeks cabinet about the customs union which Mrs May would have lost and just two days after losing her Home Secretary it would have been a humiliation'.

    It is completely baffling why she doesn't sack him. Having a psychopathic back-stabber in her cabinet must be debilitating.

    Because if she sacks him she will immediately face a leadership election. He has the backing of the ERG.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,133
    edited May 2018
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    flubadub said:

    Mike Smithson in 'Lib Dems did well' shock

    They did so better than all the rest. After so many years you can’t blame him for celebrating a bit!
    If you'd have managed a positive Burnley FC comment in that post I think OGH would have recommended you be placed on his next honey trap visit to the Russian embassy !!
    Drat. Must try better. :D
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    According to Ch4 News 'Boris tried to call a vote at last weeks cabinet about the customs union which Mrs May would have lost and just two days after losing her Home Secretary it would have been a humiliation'.

    It is completely baffling why she doesn't sack him. Having a psychopathic back-stabber in her cabinet must be debilitating.

    I think she views Boris as Lyndon Johnson viewed Edgar Hoover - she knows he's useless, lazy, dishonest and incompetent but she'd rather have him inside pissing out than on the outside pissing in.
    Nice way to describe our next PM.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SandyRentool said:

    Jo Johnson on Ch4 defending the reinstatement of the racist.

    Snookered himself there .... :smile:
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/992469451198095360

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    According to Ch4 News 'Boris tried to call a vote at last weeks cabinet about the customs union which Mrs May would have lost and just two days after losing her Home Secretary it would have been a humiliation'.

    It is completely baffling why she doesn't sack him. Having a psychopathic back-stabber in her cabinet must be debilitating.

    Because if she sacks him she will immediately face a leadership election. He has the backing of the ERG.
    ERG?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,372
    In Harrogate the LibDems lost 5 seats to the Tories, leaving them with 7.

    Not wall to wall success for the Yellows.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    HYUFD said:

    The LDs are projected to be on 16% nationally, ten years ago they got 25% in the 2008 Local Elections.


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2008

    That today's results are seen as a relative triumph for the LDs shows how far they have fallen from their peak

    You're a strange one for sure. :D Keep it up though... you make me laugh. :)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    So 1.67% of those who tried to vote in the trial areas were not able to do so because they did not have the ID required. Extrapolate that to a general election and you are looking at around 500,000 people being denied the right to cast a ballot. That is an extraordinary number.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,137
    Yorkcity said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    According to Ch4 News 'Boris tried to call a vote at last weeks cabinet about the customs union which Mrs May would have lost and just two days after losing her Home Secretary it would have been a humiliation'.

    It is completely baffling why she doesn't sack him. Having a psychopathic back-stabber in her cabinet must be debilitating.

    I think she views Boris as Lyndon Johnson viewed Edgar Hoover - she knows he's useless, lazy, dishonest and incompetent but she'd rather have him inside pissing out than on the outside pissing in.
    Nice way to describe our next PM.
    While things are desperate, I don't think they're so desperate that we're going to turn to Hoover!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,372
    Oh, and the LibDems didn't field a single candidate in Craven.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    According to Ch4 News 'Boris tried to call a vote at last weeks cabinet about the customs union which Mrs May would have lost and just two days after losing her Home Secretary it would have been a humiliation'.

    It is completely baffling why she doesn't sack him. Having a psychopathic back-stabber in her cabinet must be debilitating.

    Because if she sacks him she will immediately face a leadership election. He has the backing of the ERG.
    ERG?
    European Research Group. It has about 75 MPs on it, more than enough to trigger a leadership election that will fatally wound May.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    SandyRentool said:

    Jo Johnson on Ch4 defending the reinstatement of the racist.

    What was the defence ?

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,897
    SandyRentool said:

    Oh, and the LibDems didn't field a single candidate in Craven.

    Deary me.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claire_Brooks will be turning in her grave.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Report Cards For Elections :

    Con C- .. Lab C- .. LibDem B- .. Green C .. UKIP F
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,372
    Yorkcity said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Jo Johnson on Ch4 defending the reinstatement of the racist.

    What was the defence ?

    She's been on an awareness course, so everything is fine. But Jo hadn't actually read what she'd posted before he defended her.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    SouthamObserver said:

    So 1.67% of those who tried to vote in the trial areas were not able to do so because they did not have the ID required. Extrapolate that to a general election and you are looking at around 500,000 people being denied the right to cast a ballot. That is an extraordinary number.

    It's extraordinary because it's wrong, and extrapolating a first-time pilot to a GE is brave.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,788
    Yorkcity said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Jo Johnson on Ch4 defending the reinstatement of the racist.

    What was the defence ?

    I'm going to guess it is something like 'Time served, repentance, sensitivity training' etc. The timing, however, makes it clear what the reason for reinstatement was about.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,897
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,788
    'Wapping majorities'?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,897
    SandyRentool said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Jo Johnson on Ch4 defending the reinstatement of the racist.

    What was the defence ?

    She's been on an awareness course, so everything is fine. But Jo hadn't actually read what she'd posted before he defended her.
    There must be easy money to be made in awareness courses for politicians.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    another_richard said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.
    That's another way of describing it! But resources are finite, and they've got to start somewhere.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,788
    another_richard said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.
    They need to secure some territory, any territory, before they can worry about breaking out wider again.

    Though that is a problem for them. Plenty of areas they cannot play the 'only the LDs can beat X here' card, as they have been supplanted.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So 1.67% of those who tried to vote in the trial areas were not able to do so because they did not have the ID required. Extrapolate that to a general election and you are looking at around 500,000 people being denied the right to cast a ballot. That is an extraordinary number.

    It's extraordinary because it's wrong, and extrapolating a first-time pilot to a GE is brave.

    1.67% of 30 million is 500,000+. Voter ID needs a lot more work.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    edited May 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Off topic, I bought a pretty massive position in IAG after the Brexit kerfuffle a couple of years ago. I actually forgot about it until now because the results came out this morning and they are primed to buy Norwegian. I'm sitting on a pretty huge gain, does anyone know the implications of selling the stake whilst I'm still resident in Switzerland? I don't mind paying any UK CGT due, but I don't know if I'd be liable.

    Where are you tax resident? If it's Switzerland then you will need to pay CGT there.
    Yes Switzerland, but I'll be back in the UK before the end of the year. The CGT rate here is the same as income tax which is much lower than the 28% I'd end up paying in the UK.

    I just don't want to be liable for the rest on entry to the UK.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Tory Remain areas. You have to start somewhere.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So 1.67% of those who tried to vote in the trial areas were not able to do so because they did not have the ID required. Extrapolate that to a general election and you are looking at around 500,000 people being denied the right to cast a ballot. That is an extraordinary number.

    It's extraordinary because it's wrong, and extrapolating a first-time pilot to a GE is brave.

    1.67% of 30 million is 500,000+. Voter ID needs a lot more work.

    Voter ID and the Home Office - What could possibly go wrong ?!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Tory Remain areas. You have to start somewhere.

    Labour ones too by the looks of things in Harringey.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,897
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    another_richard said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.
    That's another way of describing it! But resources are finite, and they've got to start somewhere.
    But there's a danger of reinforcing their own perspectives and prejudices.

    SW London is rather niche.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    LOL at Mr Smithson trying to present 16% as a massive triumph.

    I remember when the consensus was that Clegg had flopped in his first set of local elections with 'only' 25%.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Tory Remain areas. You have to start somewhere.

    Labour ones too by the looks of things in Harringey.

    My guess is that Haringey was more a Momentum issue.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So 1.67% of those who tried to vote in the trial areas were not able to do so because they did not have the ID required. Extrapolate that to a general election and you are looking at around 500,000 people being denied the right to cast a ballot. That is an extraordinary number.

    It's extraordinary because it's wrong, and extrapolating a first-time pilot to a GE is brave.

    1.67% of 30 million is 500,000+. Voter ID needs a lot more work.

    The 1.67% figure is not substantiated, is based on a tiny sample, and we know for certain it's wrong because it didn't take account of people coming back later.

    But, even if it's roughly right, that's not bad for a first-time trial of something completely new.

    Incidentally, they also observed one case of possible personation, or at least confusion

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,788
    Danny565 said:

    LOL at Mr Smithson trying to present 16% as a massive triumph.

    I remember when the consensus was that Clegg had flopped in his first set of local elections with 'only' 25%.

    Because we can only judge a current situation in reference to the past, not the present. It's clearly progress. Can it be sustained? Can it be taken further so they are closer to where they have been in the past? Unclear, and I don't think their chances are high, but progress is still progress.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,897
    kle4 said:

    another_richard said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.
    They need to secure some territory, any territory, before they can worry about breaking out wider again.

    Though that is a problem for them. Plenty of areas they cannot play the 'only the LDs can beat X here' card, as they have been supplanted.
    Not bothering to put up candidates in whole districts gives the impression that you're not interested in large parts of the country.

    With UKIP disintegrating the LibDems had an opportunity to get the NOTA vote.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    another_richard said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    another_richard said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.
    That's another way of describing it! But resources are finite, and they've got to start somewhere.
    But there's a danger of reinforcing their own perspectives and prejudices.

    SW London is rather niche.
    There is definitely some mileage for them in targeting the 55%+ remain areas. I think they will do well even if they are starting from a low base. They could probably get back to 30-35 seats in 2022 by doing that, assuming Jez continues to pursue Brexit as he is now.
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    kle4 said:

    'Wapping majorities'?

    didn't do the printers any good
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,372
    Meanwhile, Mackem Tories reinstate a winning candidate who described Diane Abbott as a "filthy, bulbous pig".


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-44004241
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Danny565 said:

    LOL at Mr Smithson trying to present 16% as a massive triumph.

    I remember when the consensus was that Clegg had flopped in his first set of local elections with 'only' 25%.

    OGH didn't write or imply "massive triumph".

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    another_richard said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    another_richard said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.
    That's another way of describing it! But resources are finite, and they've got to start somewhere.
    But there's a danger of reinforcing their own perspectives and prejudices.

    SW London is rather niche.

    Haven’t they done well in South Cambridge, too?

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,904
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    I live in South Cambs. We had several things from the Conservatives (and a door-knock), one leaflet from Labour, and nothing from Labour. Though it seems my own ward elected two Conservatives and one Labour (with the third Conservative being one vote behind)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    Middle class alert.

    I have just opened the fridge and discovered a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza.
    I believe the nanny must have left it there and presume it was fed to my 3 year old for lunch.

    Thoughts?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    SandyRentool said:

    Meanwhile, Mackem Tories reinstate a winning candidate who described Diane Abbott as a "filthy, bulbous pig".


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-44004241

    Insulting, but tbh I'm not as bothered by this one as the other one. This one isn't racist, he's just a regular dick head, they need representation in government too...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So 1.67% of those who tried to vote in the trial areas were not able to do so because they did not have the ID required. Extrapolate that to a general election and you are looking at around 500,000 people being denied the right to cast a ballot. That is an extraordinary number.

    It's extraordinary because it's wrong, and extrapolating a first-time pilot to a GE is brave.

    1.67% of 30 million is 500,000+. Voter ID needs a lot more work.

    The 1.67% figure is not substantiated, is based on a tiny sample, and we know for certain it's wrong because it didn't take account of people coming back later.

    But, even if it's roughly right, that's not bad for a first-time trial of something completely new.

    Incidentally, they also observed one case of possible personation, or at least confusion

    https://democracyvolunteers.org/2018/05/03/special-report-voter-id-pilots-in-english-local-elections-03-05-18/
    As a trial I find the government guilty of a total and complete waste of time, effort and money. Send the prisoner down ....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    Gardenwalker said:

    Middle class alert.

    I have just opened the fridge and discovered a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza.
    I believe the nanny must have left it there and presume it was fed to my 3 year old for lunch.

    Thoughts?

    Sack her and make sure to have her deported. That is unforgivable.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,897
    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Tory Remain areas. You have to start somewhere.

    Labour ones too by the looks of things in Harringey.
    They don't seem to have made much progress in Camden, Hackney, Hammersmith, Lambeth, Islington, Lewisham, Southwark and Waltham Forrest.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Gardenwalker said:

    Middle class alert.

    I have just opened the fridge and discovered a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza.
    I believe the nanny must have left it there and presume it was fed to my 3 year old for lunch.

    Thoughts?

    Nanny knows best.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    Sky has just updated its projection.
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/992476749467406336?s=21
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2018
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    LOL at Mr Smithson trying to present 16% as a massive triumph.

    I remember when the consensus was that Clegg had flopped in his first set of local elections with 'only' 25%.

    Because we can only judge a current situation in reference to the past, not the present. It's clearly progress. Can it be sustained? Can it be taken further so they are closer to where they have been in the past? Unclear, and I don't think their chances are high, but progress is still progress.
    It's not particularly progress even compared to the recent past. 16% is less than the 18% they got last year in the local elections, and up a bit from 13% that they got when these seats were last contested in 2014.

    I guess the definition of "triumph" depends on what your expectations were. If one was expecting the Lib Dems to fold completely, then I suppose these results are a "triumph" - they 're clearly going to have some presence in local councils, and probably at Westminster, for years to come. But in terms of recovering to their strength of the pre-Coalition years (let alone challenging either of the Big Two, which was their big goal not so long ago), I see very little in this set of results that indicates that.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    MaxPB said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Middle class alert.

    I have just opened the fridge and discovered a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza.
    I believe the nanny must have left it there and presume it was fed to my 3 year old for lunch.

    Thoughts?

    Sack her and make sure to have her deported. That is unforgivable.
    Heh. I would but she’s Northern Irish.
    Guess I have to wait for the final customs union solution to play out.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    another_richard said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Tory Remain areas. You have to start somewhere.

    Labour ones too by the looks of things in Harringey.
    They don't seem to have made much progress in Camden, Hackney, Hammersmith, Lambeth, Islington, Lewisham, Southwark and Waltham Forrest.
    Look at the specific wards where they made gains in Haringey and it looks like the same gains they made vs the Tories in SW London. Affluent, remain voting areas. Those that you mention have a much higher level of social housing than the likes of Muswell Hill and Crouch End where the Lib Dems did well.

    The issue is that Labour have such a huge lead wherever there is social housing that it is almost impossible to unseat them without some kind of right to buy scheme (which explains Dave's/George's plan for housing association RTB).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,897
    MaxPB said:

    another_richard said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    another_richard said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.
    That's another way of describing it! But resources are finite, and they've got to start somewhere.
    But there's a danger of reinforcing their own perspectives and prejudices.

    SW London is rather niche.
    There is definitely some mileage for them in targeting the 55%+ remain areas. I think they will do well even if they are starting from a low base. They could probably get back to 30-35 seats in 2022 by doing that, assuming Jez continues to pursue Brexit as he is now.
    They'd need to make hefty gains from Labour to do that.

    And while Corbyn's promising the goodies on student debt and housing what can the LibDems offer which is better ?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    4 wards declared so far in Tower Hamlets

    http://democracy.towerhamlets.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=43&V=1&RPID=12803558

    The night is still young...
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    RoyalBlue said:

    Clear winners? No. Better than flatlining? Yes.

    The Lib Dems can clearly claim South-West London as a stronghold. It in no way compensates for their losses in the South West or parts of Scotland in recent years.

    To be fair they made a decent comeback in Scotland at the last GE, winning back 3 seats and missing out on a 4th by 2 votes
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    SouthamObserver said:

    Sky has just updated its projection.
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/992476749467406336?s=21

    Hmm, I suspect the Tories might have a tiny (1%?) lead in the Projected Vote when Rallings & Thrasher publish in a couple of days.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited May 2018
    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Tory Remain areas. You have to start somewhere.

    Or more former strong Lib Dem areas....causation vs correlation...

  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    Gardenwalker said:

    Middle class alert.

    I have just opened the fridge and discovered a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza.
    I believe the nanny must have left it there and presume it was fed to my 3 year old for lunch.

    Thoughts?

    Take back control.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SandyRentool said:

    Oh, and the LibDems didn't field a single candidate in Craven.

    That's absolutely craven.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,904
    JosiasJessop said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    I live in South Cambs. We had several things from the Conservatives (and a door-knock), one leaflet from Labour, and nothing from Labour. Though it seems my own ward elected two Conservatives and one Labour (with the third Conservative being one vote behind)
    That should have been 'nothing from the Lib Dems'. I blame having done a 23-mile walk and having eaten a pizza. I'll leave PBers to guess the topping ...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Anyone know how accurate the you gov . London poll was wrt the actual votes????
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    LOL at Mr Smithson trying to present 16% as a massive triumph.

    I remember when the consensus was that Clegg had flopped in his first set of local elections with 'only' 25%.

    Because we can only judge a current situation in reference to the past, not the present. It's clearly progress. Can it be sustained? Can it be taken further so they are closer to where they have been in the past? Unclear, and I don't think their chances are high, but progress is still progress.
    Agreed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,137
    edited May 2018
    Gardenwalker said:

    Middle class alert.

    I have just opened the fridge and discovered a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza.
    I believe the nanny must have left it there and presume it was fed to my 3 year old for lunch.

    Thoughts?

    Make her watch The Last Jedi 155 times playing a tape saying 'Laura Dern's acting is the Hawaiian pizza of cinema' so she understands the enormity of her offence.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,372
    SouthamObserver said:

    Sky has just updated its projection.
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/992476749467406336?s=21

    Progressive Alliance; Jezza in Number 10.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    ydoethur said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Middle class alert.

    I have just opened the fridge and discovered a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza.
    I believe the nanny must have left it there and presume it was fed to my 3 year old for lunch.

    Thoughts?

    Make her watch The Last Jedi 155 times playing a tape saying 'Laura Dern's acting is the Hawaiian pizza of cinema' so she understands the enormity of her offence.
    I wouldn't wish a forced viewing of the Last Jedi on my worst enemy....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,897
    SouthamObserver said:

    another_richard said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    another_richard said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.
    That's another way of describing it! But resources are finite, and they've got to start somewhere.
    But there's a danger of reinforcing their own perspectives and prejudices.

    SW London is rather niche.

    Haven’t they done well in South Cambridge, too?

    They have, as they have done in the past, but being the Cambridge commuter belt its not that dissimilar to SW London.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    ydoethur said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Middle class alert.

    I have just opened the fridge and discovered a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza.
    I believe the nanny must have left it there and presume it was fed to my 3 year old for lunch.

    Thoughts?

    Make her watch The Last Jedi 155 times playing a tape saying 'Laura Dern's acting is the Hawaiian pizza of cinema' so she understands the enormity of her offence.
    A cruel and unual punishment. Though deserved for that level of offence.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,133
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    4 wards declared so far in Tower Hamlets

    http://democracy.towerhamlets.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=43&V=1&RPID=12803558

    The night is still young...

    Wow they are counting fast, polls don't close for another 2 hours! ;)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,897
    MaxPB said:

    another_richard said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Tory Remain areas. You have to start somewhere.

    Labour ones too by the looks of things in Harringey.
    They don't seem to have made much progress in Camden, Hackney, Hammersmith, Lambeth, Islington, Lewisham, Southwark and Waltham Forrest.
    Look at the specific wards where they made gains in Haringey and it looks like the same gains they made vs the Tories in SW London. Affluent, remain voting areas. Those that you mention have a much higher level of social housing than the likes of Muswell Hill and Crouch End where the Lib Dems did well.

    The issue is that Labour have such a huge lead wherever there is social housing that it is almost impossible to unseat them without some kind of right to buy scheme (which explains Dave's/George's plan for housing association RTB).
    The LibDems have often done well in middle class wards which are in districts permanently dominated by Labour.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,137
    edited May 2018
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Middle class alert.

    I have just opened the fridge and discovered a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza.
    I believe the nanny must have left it there and presume it was fed to my 3 year old for lunch.

    Thoughts?

    Make her watch The Last Jedi 155 times playing a tape saying 'Laura Dern's acting is the Hawaiian pizza of cinema' so she understands the enormity of her offence.
    A cruel and unual punishment. Though deserved for that level of offence.
    It was Bob Hope who said that if the police ever caught John Dillinger, they would make him watch Hope's underwhelming debut in Going Spanish twice.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,133
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2018/05/04/0505-MATT-GALLERY-WEB-P1_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqqVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.png?imwidth=1240

    titters
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    LOL at Mr Smithson trying to present 16% as a massive triumph.

    I remember when the consensus was that Clegg had flopped in his first set of local elections with 'only' 25%.

    Because we can only judge a current situation in reference to the past, not the present. It's clearly progress. Can it be sustained? Can it be taken further so they are closer to where they have been in the past? Unclear, and I don't think their chances are high, but progress is still progress.
    It's not particularly progress even compared to the recent past. 16% is less than the 18% they got last year in the local elections, and up a bit from 13% that they got when these seats were last contested in 2014.

    I guess the definition of "triumph" depends on what your expectations were. If one was expecting the Lib Dems to fold completely, then I suppose these results are a "triumph" - they 're clearly going to have some presence in local councils, and probably at Westminster, for years to come. But in terms of recovering to their strength of the pre-Coalition years (let alone challenging either of the Big Two, which was their big goal not so long ago), I see very little in this set of results that indicates that.
    Patience, Danny. It`s like a plane taking off... you know.... slow at first, and then.... whoom!
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,551
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Off topic, I bought a pretty massive position in IAG after the Brexit kerfuffle a couple of years ago. I actually forgot about it until now because the results came out this morning and they are primed to buy Norwegian. I'm sitting on a pretty huge gain, does anyone know the implications of selling the stake whilst I'm still resident in Switzerland? I don't mind paying any UK CGT due, but I don't know if I'd be liable.

    Where are you tax resident? If it's Switzerland then you will need to pay CGT there.
    Yes Switzerland, but I'll be back in the UK before the end of the year. The CGT rate here is the same as income tax which is much lower than the 28% I'd end up paying in the UK.

    I just don't want to be liable for the rest on entry to the UK.
    20%. 28% only for carried interest gains, residential property gains.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    4 wards declared so far in Tower Hamlets

    http://democracy.towerhamlets.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=43&V=1&RPID=12803558

    The night is still young...

    Wow they are counting fast, polls don't close for another 2 hours! ;)
    They're counting the 2014 elections.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    The Lib Dems (3) have been eliminated from Hackney Council. It’s a bit sad that in liberal Islington and Hackney, not a Lib Dem is now to be found.

    I am envious of the good burghers of Crouch End.

    Can we have PR for local elections please?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,315
    Verulamius said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Off topic, I bought a pretty massive position in IAG after the Brexit kerfuffle a couple of years ago. I actually forgot about it until now because the results came out this morning and they are primed to buy Norwegian. I'm sitting on a pretty huge gain, does anyone know the implications of selling the stake whilst I'm still resident in Switzerland? I don't mind paying any UK CGT due, but I don't know if I'd be liable.

    Where are you tax resident? If it's Switzerland then you will need to pay CGT there.
    Yes Switzerland, but I'll be back in the UK before the end of the year. The CGT rate here is the same as income tax which is much lower than the 28% I'd end up paying in the UK.

    I just don't want to be liable for the rest on entry to the UK.
    20%. 28% only for carried interest gains, residential property gains.
    I have no idea what that means.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    PClipp said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    LOL at Mr Smithson trying to present 16% as a massive triumph.

    I remember when the consensus was that Clegg had flopped in his first set of local elections with 'only' 25%.

    Because we can only judge a current situation in reference to the past, not the present. It's clearly progress. Can it be sustained? Can it be taken further so they are closer to where they have been in the past? Unclear, and I don't think their chances are high, but progress is still progress.
    It's not particularly progress even compared to the recent past. 16% is less than the 18% they got last year in the local elections, and up a bit from 13% that they got when these seats were last contested in 2014.

    I guess the definition of "triumph" depends on what your expectations were. If one was expecting the Lib Dems to fold completely, then I suppose these results are a "triumph" - they 're clearly going to have some presence in local councils, and probably at Westminster, for years to come. But in terms of recovering to their strength of the pre-Coalition years (let alone challenging either of the Big Two, which was their big goal not so long ago), I see very little in this set of results that indicates that.
    Patience, Danny. It`s like a plane taking off... you know.... slow at first, and then.... whoom!
    Whoom! Bang! Crash! ?????
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,551
    MaxPB said:

    Verulamius said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Off topic, I bought a pretty massive position in IAG after the Brexit kerfuffle a couple of years ago. I actually forgot about it until now because the results came out this morning and they are primed to buy Norwegian. I'm sitting on a pretty huge gain, does anyone know the implications of selling the stake whilst I'm still resident in Switzerland? I don't mind paying any UK CGT due, but I don't know if I'd be liable.

    Where are you tax resident? If it's Switzerland then you will need to pay CGT there.
    Yes Switzerland, but I'll be back in the UK before the end of the year. The CGT rate here is the same as income tax which is much lower than the 28% I'd end up paying in the UK.

    I just don't want to be liable for the rest on entry to the UK.
    20%. 28% only for carried interest gains, residential property gains.
    I have no idea what that means.
    The normal rate of cgt for higher rate taxpayers is 20%. For gains arising from disposals of residential property (eg second homes) the rate is 28%. Similarly the rate of tax on carried interest for private equity managers is also 28%.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,137
    Gardenwalker said:

    The Lib Dems (3) have been eliminated from Hackney Council. It’s a bit sad that in liberal Islington and Hackney, not a Lib Dem is now to be found.

    I am envious of the good burghers of Crouch End.

    Can we have PR for local elections please?

    While it would be an excellent reform, I think politicians are too scared it would lead to PR at Westminster as well.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    ydoethur said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Middle class alert.

    I have just opened the fridge and discovered a half-eaten Hawaiian pizza.
    I believe the nanny must have left it there and presume it was fed to my 3 year old for lunch.

    Thoughts?

    Make her watch The Last Jedi 155 times playing a tape saying 'Laura Dern's acting is the Hawaiian pizza of cinema' so she understands the enormity of her offence.
    Obviously you have to immediately scrap the fridge after the serious pineapple on pizza infestation.

    Make her pay for the new one
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited May 2018
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    another_richard said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What strikes me most about the LibDems' good showing is that it was very concentrated in a small number of winnable contests. That suggests good targeting.

    Or a retreat into their comfort zone and abandonment of much of the country.
    That's another way of describing it! But resources are finite, and they've got to start somewhere.
    Indeed - they have correctly spent the last couple of elections addressing the risk of being wiped out entirely. There’s a good chance they will continue to recover - memories of the coalition are beginning to fade. Thanks to Brexit it feels like a bygone era.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    JackW said:

    PClipp said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    LOL at Mr Smithson trying to present 16% as a massive triumph.

    I remember when the consensus was that Clegg had flopped in his first set of local elections with 'only' 25%.

    Because we can only judge a current situation in reference to the past, not the present. It's clearly progress. Can it be sustained? Can it be taken further so they are closer to where they have been in the past? Unclear, and I don't think their chances are high, but progress is still progress.
    It's not particularly progress even compared to the recent past. 16% is less than the 18% they got last year in the local elections, and up a bit from 13% that they got when these seats were last contested in 2014.

    I guess the definition of "triumph" depends on what your expectations were. If one was expecting the Lib Dems to fold completely, then I suppose these results are a "triumph" - they 're clearly going to have some presence in local councils, and probably at Westminster, for years to come. But in terms of recovering to their strength of the pre-Coalition years (let alone challenging either of the Big Two, which was their big goal not so long ago), I see very little in this set of results that indicates that.
    Patience, Danny. It`s like a plane taking off... you know.... slow at first, and then.... whoom!
    Whoom! Bang! Crash! ?????
    And KABOOM
This discussion has been closed.