politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far tonight LAB doing worse than expectations while the Lib
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But on the one hand Corbyn brings together a coalition of Old Labour, multi-culti Labour, far left Labour, green, centrist labour nose holders, and some former labour voting non voters, on the other he also brings together a coalition against who don't want the above in power, hence Theresa May is polling the Highest Tory numbers in a generation.TheJezziah said:
Which is part of the journey Labour has undertaken, expanding its voting base under Corbyn. Not popular for some on the right of the party who want their interests served but more in sync with the electorate. It has been made difficult by those who aren't having their interests served but we can't abandon a project which has given us electoral returns so far because small groups are unhappy about the direction.Jonathan said:
You are super serving part of the core vote. Winning elections is about getting enough people to vote for you, not delighting a minority.TheJezziah said:I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.
It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.
For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.
The core vote mostly did turn out but it is Corbyn who seems to have been a big motivator in bringing in other votes, the idea that binning him and going to a more Blairite approach would work is false IMO.0 -
Like what? There is nowhere to go. Lib Dem’s dead, still tarnished by coalition. Tories heading right, drunk on Brexit.kle4 said:
Certainly centrists aren't disenfranchised either. They have options if they cannot support the current direction of the party.TheJezziah said:
Well no more than you get centrists or Blairites complaining now about the same but if you prefer different wording I am fine with that. I can understand the wording as if your ideas are locked out of both main parties then they take very little effect.kle4 said:
I certainly take your point about the Corbyn must resign thing, but I take issue with the too often used 'disenfranchised' to describe the situation the far left feel. They were not. They had the opportunity to vote for far leftists up and down the country, or stand themselves. That Labour were offering sonething more middle ground didn't disenfranchise anyone.TheJezziah said:I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.
It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.
For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.
Although I suppose there are counter arguments regarding UKIP and then to a lesser extent the Greens have seen their issues adopted, although a far slower process!0 -
He is off to Plymouth - bit like Mandleson in Hartlepool really.Casino_Royale said:I wonder if the Absolute Boy will be visiting Barnet later today?
*innocent face*0 -
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With 97 councils declared:
LD: +1 council
Con: no change
Lab: -1 council
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-2018
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Tories still up 9 councillors...AndyJS said:With 97 councils declared:
LD: +1 council
Con: no change
Lab: -1 council
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-2018
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BBC miles behind the curve, as per usual.AndyJS said:Tories clocking up the gains in Barnet. There's a tie in the final seat.
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We need to hear from Owen Jones. We need to unseat Owen Jones - off to Siberia with him0
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Cheers.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Tories now 99% likely to increase their majority...TheScreamingEagles said:Oh Lordy does this mean my Barnet tip(s) are winners ?
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They can form a new party then. The point was they have a vote, and that they don't like the options doesn't change that. People moan every day about not liking any of the options presented to them, it doesn't mean they are disenfrachisedJonathan said:
Like what? There is nowhere to go. Lib Dem’s dead, still tarnished by coalition. Tories heading right, drunk on Brexit.kle4 said:
Certainly centrists aren't disenfranchised either. They have options if they cannot support the current direction of the party.TheJezziah said:
Well no more than you get centrists or Blairites complaining now about the same but if you prefer different wording I am fine with that. I can understand the wording as if your ideas are locked out of both main parties then they take very little effect.kle4 said:
I certainly take your point about the Corbyn must resign thing, but I take issue with the too often used 'disenfranchised' to describe the situation the far left feel. They were not. They had the opportunity to vote for far leftists up and down the country, or stand themselves. That Labour were offering sonething more middle ground didn't disenfranchise anyone.TheJezziah said:I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.
It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.
For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.
Although I suppose there are counter arguments regarding UKIP and then to a lesser extent the Greens have seen their issues adopted, although a far slower process!0 -
And they lost massively in the years up to 1997. Parties in power generally get hollowed out because so many vote against things. This is what makes these results pretty good for the Tories. They will almost certainly go to a net loss of councillors later today but it will be tiny, less than 50.RobD said:
Factoid of the day. The Tories gained in 13 consecutive sets of local elections leading up to 2010.ydoethur said:
In 2003 there was a famous headline after similarly 'meh' council elections that the Tories 'should not confuse relief with joy.'Nemtynakht said:I think Labour will be disappointed overall. Plymouth which they are heralding as a success stems from the loss of the UKIP seats won last time around, and the PB // Polling Matters podcast called this for Labour well in advance. Conversely across the midlands Tories have picked up seats where UKIP have fallen back.
Labour don't seem to have delivered the votes or councils across a large number of targets including A lot of London, but also places like Walsall which was being talked up on Radio 4 earlier in the week. I think it partly down to expectations management being poor, and partly down to motivation to vote, both which stem from the style of Corbyn support. The party now has such enthusiastic supporters, that they over estimate support, and the other is motivation to vote, which is more patchy for labour. Undoubtedly Labour supporters and voters are more enthused to vote for Corbyn. Unfortunately for Labour he also seems to motivate all other voters to coalesce around the conservatives in order to vote against him.
These results are less impressive for Labour than those were for the Conservatives. At the moment, they are not a party on the path to power.0 -
Labour still support Brexit too, Paul.AndyJS said:Paul Mason's view of the results:
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/9922847008058122240 -
Looks like a very poor night for Labour. With a decent leader and decent (actual) policies we'd be miles away from them.
If Corbyn is still there in 2022 then I think even Theresa would beat him, a proper leader will trounce him.0 -
Forming a new party? You might as well give up on politics altogether under FPTP. Labour needs centrists to win. Always has, always will. Corbyn and co need to wake up to that.kle4 said:
They can form a new party then. The point was they have a vote, and that they don't like the options doesn't change that.Jonathan said:
Like what? There is nowhere to go. Lib Dem’s dead, still tarnished by coalition. Tories heading right, drunk on Brexit.kle4 said:
Certainly centrists aren't disenfranchised either. They have options if they cannot support the current direction of the party.TheJezziah said:
Well no more than you get centrists or Blairites complaining now about the same but if you prefer different wording I am fine with that. I can understand the wording as if your ideas are locked out of both main parties then they take very little effect.kle4 said:
I certainly take your point about the Corbyn must resign thing, but I take issue with the too often used 'disenfranchised' to describe the situation the far left feel. They were not. They had the opportunity to vote for far leftists up and down the country, or stand themselves. That Labour were offering sonething more middle ground didn't disenfranchise anyone.TheJezziah said:I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.
It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.
For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.
Although I suppose there are counter arguments regarding UKIP and then to a lesser extent the Greens have seen their issues adopted, although a far slower process!
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For Labour to fail to take Barnet may be considered a misfortune.
For them to let the Conservatives take it looks like carelessness.
Brandon Lewis looking and sounding as smug as Laura Pidcock as that result comes in.0 -
What progress?ydoethur said:
What progress?TheJezziah said:I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.
It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.
For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.
Labour are two seats ahead of where they were in 2010, at the end of 13 years in power and against a divided opposition. Labour have rallied the opposition to one party, alienated their core support outside London, removed all experienced heavyweights from frontline politics and replaced them with what look like overgrown students from the University of Gloucestershire politics course, failed to agree a coherent position on Brexit, made a number of policy promises that they have admitted despite earlier claims to the contrary were uncosted and they never had any intention of implementing, and gained the support of the former leader of the BNP. On top of that, on tonight's evidence they aren't making significant progress even in the country's main conurbations, unlike just about every other left-wing party in the world.
The saving grace for Labour is that May is almost as shite. But an opposition built on the government's weakness with no strength of its own is a poor opposition as Cameron and Kinnock both found to their cost.
Over 3 million extra votes, set against a backdrop of the right of party trying to tear it apart to stop the left leading the party and setting policy.
As I understand if we take the leader of the BNP at his word then he would vote for Labour if May was going to start some big conflcit over Syria, as that doesn't seem likely I guess he isn't voting for us. Although if we don't take him at his word then we don't have any evidence he is voting for us.. Works well for propaganda purposes but when you break it down it seems kind of meaningless.
A bunch of people resigned from the cabinet, their choice, not a massive loss in some cases. Some new talent given a chance though so could work out well. Also if they don't like the direction of the party and would rather plan leadership elections for after elections it is probably for the best.
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where are these 40 new LD other than Kingston? apparently they've lost a few to Labour in urban areas?RobD said:
Tories still up 9 councillors...AndyJS said:With 97 councils declared:
LD: +1 council
Con: no change
Lab: -1 council
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-20180 -
Hasn't tweeted in 11 hours......felix said:We need to hear from Owen Jones. We need to unseat Owen Jones - off to Siberia with him
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Good morning, everyone.
Thanks to Mr. F and Mr. Pulpstar for their tips on Barnet and Sutton. Boo hiss to Labour failing to take Trafford. Proof, were it needed, that Labour are bad for prosperity!0 -
So the Conservatvies gained all three seats in West Hendon ward !
Now which PBer was musing about the possibility of that happening earlier this week ?
I think it was the same PBer who had a 40/1 winner on the Royal Baby name market.
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I'm glad to say I made £87.50 on Barnet.0
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Like a bird, Labour needs both wings to fly.TheJezziah said:
What progress?ydoethur said:
What progress?TheJezziah said:I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.
It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.
For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.
Labour are two seats ahead of where they were in 2010, at the end of 13 years in power and against a divided opposition. Labour have rallied the opposition to one party, alienated their core support outside London, removed all experienced heavyweights from frontline politics and replaced them with what look like overgrown students from the University of Gloucestershire politics course, failed to agree a coherent position on Brexit, made a number of policy promises that they have admitted despite earlier claims to the contrary were uncosted and they never had any intention of implementing, and gained the support of the former leader of the BNP. On top of that, on tonight's evidence they aren't making significant progress even in the country's main conurbations, unlike just about every other left-wing party in the world.
The saving grace for Labour is that May is almost as shite. But an opposition built on the government's weakness with no strength of its own is a poor opposition as Cameron and Kinnock both found to their cost.
Over 3 million extra votes, set against a backdrop of the right of party trying to tear it apart to stop the left leading the party and setting policy.
As I understand if we take the leader of the BNP at his word then he would vote for Labour if May was going to start some big conflcit over Syria, as that doesn't seem likely I guess he isn't voting for us. Although if we don't take him at his word then we don't have any evidence he is voting for us.. Works well for propaganda purposes but when you break it down it seems kind of meaningless.
A bunch of people resigned from the cabinet, their choice, not a massive loss in some cases. Some new talent given a chance though so could work out well. Also if they don't like the direction of the party and would rather plan leadership elections for after elections it is probably for the best.0 -
And none of that has anything to do with disenfranchisement, which was the point. You're not being starved if you're offered 3 meals you don't like, and it might be hard and unrewarding but you can try making a meal yourself. Or more likely, suck it up and eat it.Jonathan said:
Forming a new party? You might as well give up on politics altogether under FPTP. Labour needs centrists to win. Always has, always will. Corbyn and co need to wake up to that.kle4 said:
They can form a new party then. The point was they have a vote, and that they don't like the options doesn't change that.Jonathan said:
Like what? There is nowhere to go. Lib Dem’s dead, still tarnished by coalition. Tories heading right, drunk on Brexit.kle4 said:
Certainly centrists aren't disenfranchised either. They have options if they cannot support the current direction of the party.TheJezziah said:
Well no more than you get centrists or Blairites complaining now about the same but if you prefer different wording I am fine with that. I can understand the wording as if your ideas are locked out of both main parties then they take very little effect.kle4 said:
I certainly take your point about the Corbyn must resign thing, but I take issue with the too often used 'disenfranchised' to describe the situation the far left feel. They were not. They had the opportunity to vote for far leftists up and down the country, or stand themselves. That Labour were offering sonething more middle ground didn't disenfranchise anyone.TheJezziah said:I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.
It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.
For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.
Although I suppose there are counter arguments regarding UKIP and then to a lesser extent the Greens have seen their issues adopted, although a far slower process!0 -
I agree there were some duds under Miliband, but Cat Smith, Angela Rayner, Richard Burgon and the others are talent?!!'TheJezziah said:
A bunch of people resigned from the cabinet, their choice, not a massive loss in some cases. Some new talent given a chance though so could work out well.
We're seriously screwed if that's the level of political talent we have going forward. And the worrying thing is, it is, and not just in Labour.0 -
Thanks to everyone who give their views and thoughts on the market.
The local elections aren't a big betting night for me, but I'm up folding money.0 -
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/992283537372987394
Results are still coming in from across England, so this is essentially a half-time report. But the picture emerging is that Labour has gone backwards slightly from 2014, missed most of its targets (including all of them in London) and gained few seats. Opposition parties are supposed to do well in midterm contests, and these aren’t the results of one that’s about to storm the next general election.0 -
Of 94 UKIP Councillors, they've lost 93 and gained 1!0
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They've picked up a few seats in various places, like Cheltenham, St Albans, Bolton, Wokingham, etc.TheWhiteRabbit said:
where are these 40 new LD other than Kingston? apparently they've lost a few to Labour in urban areas?RobD said:
Tories still up 9 councillors...AndyJS said:With 97 councils declared:
LD: +1 council
Con: no change
Lab: -1 council
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-20180 -
And that gain was against the leader of a council! Bizarre.TheWhiteRabbit said:Of 94 UKIP Councillors, they've lost 93 and gained 1!
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In my area Gosport +4, Winchester +2AndyJS said:
They've picked up a few seats in various places, like Cheltenham, St Albans, Bolton, Wokingham, etc.TheWhiteRabbit said:
where are these 40 new LD other than Kingston? apparently they've lost a few to Labour in urban areas?RobD said:
Tories still up 9 councillors...AndyJS said:With 97 councils declared:
LD: +1 council
Con: no change
Lab: -1 council
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-20180 -
Do we have a NEV yet ?0
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The force is not with Labour on May 4th0
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Some bizarrely good Conservative results in Grimsby.0
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just waking up..... loads to catch up on but I see my Barnet Blues bet isn't looking so good...
https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/992159935889903616
https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/9921621112908554260 -
If the Tories had some half decent policies they could win the next election outright
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I think the Tories will make a net gain, among the councils still to declare.DavidL said:
And they lost massively in the years up to 1997. Parties in power generally get hollowed out because so many vote against things. This is what makes these results pretty good for the Tories. They will almost certainly go to a net loss of councillors later today but it will be tiny, less than 50.RobD said:
Factoid of the day. The Tories gained in 13 consecutive sets of local elections leading up to 2010.ydoethur said:
In 2003 there was a famous headline after similarly 'meh' council elections that the Tories 'should not confuse relief with joy.'Nemtynakht said:I think Labour will be disappointed overall. Plymouth which they are heralding as a success stems from the loss of the UKIP seats won last time around, and the PB // Polling Matters podcast called this for Labour well in advance. Conversely across the midlands Tories have picked up seats where UKIP have fallen back.
Labour don't seem to have delivered the votes or councils across a large number of targets including A lot of London, but also places like Walsall which was being talked up on Radio 4 earlier in the week. I think it partly down to expectations management being poor, and partly down to motivation to vote, both which stem from the style of Corbyn support. The party now has such enthusiastic supporters, that they over estimate support, and the other is motivation to vote, which is more patchy for labour. Undoubtedly Labour supporters and voters are more enthused to vote for Corbyn. Unfortunately for Labour he also seems to motivate all other voters to coalesce around the conservatives in order to vote against him.
These results are less impressive for Labour than those were for the Conservatives. At the moment, they are not a party on the path to power.0 -
This government is divided, incompetent and destructive. Corbyn Labour cannot defeat it. The far left guarantees that the likes of Johnson and Rees Mogg will decide this country’s future. The only way to prevent this is to loosen the far left’s control of the Labour party. That’s why I jumped back into the cesspit. Today I feel totally vindicated.
On Barnet - it wasn’t just Jews that stopped Labour winning, it was their friends and neighbours, too. That is what solidarity looks like. The local party - which is faultless on anti-Semitism - paid for the national leadership’s sins.0 -
Fox, Grayling, Liddington, Williamson... no, its not just a Labour problem.ydoethur said:
I agree there were some duds under Miliband, but Cat Smith, Angela Rayner, Richard Burgon and the others are talent?!!'TheJezziah said:
A bunch of people resigned from the cabinet, their choice, not a massive loss in some cases. Some new talent given a chance though so could work out well.
We're seriously screwed if that's the level of political talent we have going forward. And the worrying thing is, it is, and not just in Labour.0 -
This is true but I think May's gains came largely from Brexit and UKIP whereas Corbyn seemed to bring in non voters, greens, Lib Dems as well as those to do with Brexit. I think without a Brexit bounce and the collapse of UKIP Labour may well have won its first election under Corbyn.Nemtynakht said:
But on the one hand Corbyn brings together a coalition of Old Labour, multi-culti Labour, far left Labour, green, centrist labour nose holders, and some former labour voting non voters, on the other he also brings together a coalition against who don't want the above in power, hence Theresa May is polling the Highest Tory numbers in a generation.TheJezziah said:
Which is part of the journey Labour has undertaken, expanding its voting base under Corbyn. Not popular for some on the right of the party who want their interests served but more in sync with the electorate. It has been made difficult by those who aren't having their interests served but we can't abandon a project which has given us electoral returns so far because small groups are unhappy about the direction.Jonathan said:
You are super serving part of the core vote. Winning elections is about getting enough people to vote for you, not delighting a minority.TheJezziah said:I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.
It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.
For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.
The core vote mostly did turn out but it is Corbyn who seems to have been a big motivator in bringing in other votes, the idea that binning him and going to a more Blairite approach would work is false IMO.0 -
Leave David Lidington alone.DavidL said:
Fox, Grayling, Liddington, Williamson... no, its not just a Labour problem.ydoethur said:
I agree there were some duds under Miliband, but Cat Smith, Angela Rayner, Richard Burgon and the others are talent?!!'TheJezziah said:
A bunch of people resigned from the cabinet, their choice, not a massive loss in some cases. Some new talent given a chance though so could work out well.
We're seriously screwed if that's the level of political talent we have going forward. And the worrying thing is, it is, and not just in Labour.0 -
what's the bizzare? yesterday everyone thought it was Labour gain territory. but it's white, and leave, and the Tories made gains in votes if not seats in the GEanother_richard said:Some bizarrely good Conservative results in Grimsby.
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Earlier, it was about 38/35 Con/Lab, but that may have changed.another_richard said:Do we have a NEV yet ?
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The implication of your post is that you sense something fishy there....another_richard said:Some bizarrely good Conservative results in Grimsby.
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Stupidly I went to the BBC first and saw a headline saying “mixed results.” I should have guessed what that meant.Casino_Royale said:
BBC miles behind the curve, as per usual.AndyJS said:Tories clocking up the gains in Barnet. There's a tie in the final seat.
Disappointed that the 12-1 on Labour to win Trafford didn’t come in.0 -
The problem for Labour is by the time they get to finish the job in London, we'll have had another GE0
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TheJezziah said:
This is true but I think May's gains came largely from Brexit and UKIP whereas Corbyn seemed to bring in non voters, greens, Lib Dems as well as those to do with Brexit. I think without a Brexit bounce and the collapse of UKIP Labour may well have won its first election under Corbyn.Nemtynakht said:
But on the one hand Corbyn brings together a coalition of Old Labour, multi-culti Labour, far left Labour, green, centrist labour nose holders, and some former labour voting non voters, on the other he also brings together a coalition against who don't want the above in power, hence Theresa May is polling the Highest Tory numbers in a generation.TheJezziah said:
Which is part of the journey Labour has undertaken, expanding its voting base under Corbyn. Not popular for some on the right of the party who want their interests served but more in sync with the electorate. It has been made difficult by those who aren't having their interests served but we can't abandon a project which has given us electoral returns so far because small groups are unhappy about the direction.Jonathan said:
You are super serving part of the core vote. Winning elections is about getting enough people to vote for you, not delighting a minority.TheJezziah said:I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.
It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.
For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.
The core vote mostly did turn out but it is Corbyn who seems to have been a big motivator in bringing in other votes, the idea that binning him and going to a more Blairite approach would work is false IMO.
Labour are a very, very long way from winning.0 -
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Labour were smoked like a kipper.ydoethur said:
The implication of your post is that you sense something fishy there....another_richard said:Some bizarrely good Conservative results in Grimsby.
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Anyone one to guess what Lord Adonis' suggestion for Labour to gain more votes is?
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/9922866389894430720 -
Ed Davey selling unicorns for the LDs, at this rate he'll be declaring they'll be the next government0
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Hang on..... kerching!!! Now who was my bet with...
Paging Owen Jones...
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/9922828045986693140 -
I think it's too early because we still have 52 councils to declare this afternoon. That's a lot more than usual.another_richard said:Do we have a NEV yet ?
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Their claim of sweeping gains certainly proved a red herring.another_richard said:
Labour were smoked like a kipper.ydoethur said:
The implication of your post is that you sense something fishy there....another_richard said:Some bizarrely good Conservative results in Grimsby.
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LadbrokesScrapheap_as_was said:Hang on..... kerching!!! Now who was my bet with...
Paging Owen Jones...
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/9922828045986693140 -
Morning all, I deliberately didn't pick a betting side this election as I wasn't sure how it was going to go. The blues and the yellows however have achieved what they needed to in Sutton and Wandsworth.
Has Corbyn let me down in Barnet or
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He was just embarrassing on the Today program yesterday morning.TheScreamingEagles said:
Leave David Lidington alone.DavidL said:
Fox, Grayling, Liddington, Williamson... no, its not just a Labour problem.ydoethur said:
I agree there were some duds under Miliband, but Cat Smith, Angela Rayner, Richard Burgon and the others are talent?!!'TheJezziah said:
A bunch of people resigned from the cabinet, their choice, not a massive loss in some cases. Some new talent given a chance though so could work out well.
We're seriously screwed if that's the level of political talent we have going forward. And the worrying thing is, it is, and not just in Labour.0 -
Yes, small gains in lots of councils.logical_song said:
In my area Gosport +4, Winchester +2AndyJS said:
They've picked up a few seats in various places, like Cheltenham, St Albans, Bolton, Wokingham, etc.TheWhiteRabbit said:
where are these 40 new LD other than Kingston? apparently they've lost a few to Labour in urban areas?RobD said:
Tories still up 9 councillors...AndyJS said:With 97 councils declared:
LD: +1 council
Con: no change
Lab: -1 council
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-20180 -
He's back:
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/992293310759821312
No mention of:
Swindon
Trafford
Amber Valley
Westminster
Carlisle
Wandsworth
Dudley or
Walsall
Owen?0 -
Curtice's assessment:
Although these results are not particularly good for Labour, they are better, relatively speaking, than they were in the general election last year. So you certainly can’t argue that the Labour party has not made any progress as compared with last year’s general election [where the Tories were ahead]. But, on the other hand, you can’t necessarily argue the Labour party is in a stronger position than they were in the 2016 local elections as well as the 2014 local elections [in both of which Labour ended up ahead].
Compared with forecasts:
1. Labour is obviously underperforming in London compared with the forecasts of enthusiasts - in particular the idea that huge numbers of canvassers will swing a strongly Tory borough has been largely disproved.
2. The Conservatives also fell short of the predictions that they'd do very well outside London. There are patchy successes (Nuneaton and Derby) and failures (Plymouth and Trafford)
Overall, unless the remaining results show any real surprises, it looks consistent with the polls, showing the parties deadlocked.
0 -
If they can't gain TH they should give up and go home!CarlottaVance said:0 -
The Conservatives won wards there which they hadn't since, I suspect, the 1970s.TheWhiteRabbit said:
what's the bizzare? yesterday everyone thought it was Labour gain territory. but it's white, and leave, and the Tories made gains in votes if not seats in the GEanother_richard said:Some bizarrely good Conservative results in Grimsby.
0 -
Labour did much better than expected in Wandsworth (they were 35 votes away from winning a seat in Shaftesbury) but the overall London results are disappointing for them.0
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Morning Alan, hope all is well with you.Alanbrooke said:If the Tories had some half decent policies they could win the next election outright
0 -
Lol he is obsessed, I think his brand of moderatism would probably do even worse than Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone one to guess what Lord Adonis' suggestion for Labour to gain more votes is?
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/9922866389894430720 -
Being deadlocked means Labour will lose the next general election.NickPalmer said:Curtice's assessment:
Although these results are not particularly good for Labour, they are better, relatively speaking, than they were in the general election last year. So you certainly can’t argue that the Labour party has not made any progress as compared with last year’s general election [where the Tories were ahead]. But, on the other hand, you can’t necessarily argue the Labour party is in a stronger position than they were in the 2016 local elections as well as the 2014 local elections [in both of which Labour ended up ahead].
Compared with forecasts:
1. Labour is obviously underperforming in London compared with the forecasts of enthusiasts - in particular the idea that huge numbers of canvassers will swing a strongly Tory borough has been largely disproved.
2. The Conservatives also fell short of the predictions that they'd do very well outside London. There are patchy successes (Nuneaton and Derby) and failures (Plymouth and Trafford)
Overall, unless the remaining results show any real surprises, it looks consistent with the polls, showing the parties deadlocked.
0 -
All 99 councils that started counting last night have now declared, although there are a few individual wards still to be declared in places like Southgate and Childs Hill where recounts are ongoing.0
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Adonis would sack the cabinet and appoint himself he every position he's an expert onPulpstar said:
Lol he is obsessed, I think his brand of moderatism would probably do even worse than Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone one to guess what Lord Adonis' suggestion for Labour to gain more votes is?
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/9922866389894430720 -
@Jonathan
The needing both wings things sounds lovely but I'm not sure it is all that true, Blair just needed the lefts votes and as time went on not even that so much. The left wing does somewhat need the right wing and that is why there has been some compromise but the right has to accept that the left will be leading for the moment. As much as anything that seems to have been a sticking point.
As to winning just a small percentage change from the last election would probably see Corbyn in office, that might be a long long time, up to 4 years.
Some are talent and some are potential maybe some will just end up being found out as warm bodies to fill spaces but after some trouble in the party the last few years we had to prioritise those willing to serve.ydoethur said:
I agree there were some duds under Miliband, but Cat Smith, Angela Rayner, Richard Burgon and the others are talent?!!'TheJezziah said:
A bunch of people resigned from the cabinet, their choice, not a massive loss in some cases. Some new talent given a chance though so could work out well.
We're seriously screwed if that's the level of political talent we have going forward. And the worrying thing is, it is, and not just in Labour.0 -
Morning PB,
Has there been a projected national share of the vote yet?0 -
So the solution to losing votes and seats in LEAVE areas is to stop Brexit? It's a view.TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone one to guess what Lord Adonis' suggestion for Labour to gain more votes is?
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/9922866389894430720 -
when are the first results from morning counts expected?AndyJS said:All 99 councils that started counting last night have now declared, although there are a few individual wards still to be declared in places like Southgate and Childs Hill where recounts are ongoing.
0 -
It’s almost if people who said that see them as “others” who behave differently...Casino_Royale said:
I think the assumption that Jews would rebel against Labour but non-Jews would stick with Corbyn was badly mistaken.nunuone said:this is getting ridiculous now.....
https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992275257565196288
They are all neighbours, and probably friends in many instances, and will be more likely to be angry at how they’ve been treated and made to feel.0 -
Indeed, I really underestimated the impact of that local issue. Generally betting against exceptional local results is a good strategy - but this time I was completely wrong.TheWhiteRabbit said:
To recall a recent thread discussion, Jews have friends, colleagues, and neighbours.TGOHF said:0 -
It shows in the key marginals, Corbyn is not favoured if he threatens to form a Government.Jonathan said:
Being deadlocked means Labour will lose the next general election.NickPalmer said:Curtice's assessment:
Although these results are not particularly good for Labour, they are better, relatively speaking, than they were in the general election last year. So you certainly can’t argue that the Labour party has not made any progress as compared with last year’s general election [where the Tories were ahead]. But, on the other hand, you can’t necessarily argue the Labour party is in a stronger position than they were in the 2016 local elections as well as the 2014 local elections [in both of which Labour ended up ahead].
Compared with forecasts:
1. Labour is obviously underperforming in London compared with the forecasts of enthusiasts - in particular the idea that huge numbers of canvassers will swing a strongly Tory borough has been largely disproved.
2. The Conservatives also fell short of the predictions that they'd do very well outside London. There are patchy successes (Nuneaton and Derby) and failures (Plymouth and Trafford)
Overall, unless the remaining results show any real surprises, it looks consistent with the polls, showing the parties deadlocked.
We could have precisely the same GB vote next time but with 20 seats moving from the Tory to the Labour column, on that basis, giving them a majority again.0 -
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Full results from NE Lincs. Labour won a seat in Immingham by 3 votes.
https://www.nelincs.gov.uk/councillors-and-democracy/elections-and-electoral-registration/election-results/local-elections-3rd-may-2018/0 -
Previous LibDem NEV during this round of elections while not in government:Alanbrooke said:Ed Davey selling unicorns for the LDs, at this rate he'll be declaring they'll be the next government
2010 26%
2006 25%
2002 27%
1998 25%
1994 25%
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yeah malc same.malcolmg said:
Morning Alan, hope all is well with you.Alanbrooke said:If the Tories had some half decent policies they could win the next election outright
did you survive the great cull ?0 -
we need to recalibrate what is a marginal. Nuneaton certainly ain't.Casino_Royale said:
It shows in the key marginals, Corbyn is not favoured if he threatens to form a Government.Jonathan said:
Being deadlocked means Labour will lose the next general election.NickPalmer said:Curtice's assessment:
Although these results are not particularly good for Labour, they are better, relatively speaking, than they were in the general election last year. So you certainly can’t argue that the Labour party has not made any progress as compared with last year’s general election [where the Tories were ahead]. But, on the other hand, you can’t necessarily argue the Labour party is in a stronger position than they were in the 2016 local elections as well as the 2014 local elections [in both of which Labour ended up ahead].
Compared with forecasts:
1. Labour is obviously underperforming in London compared with the forecasts of enthusiasts - in particular the idea that huge numbers of canvassers will swing a strongly Tory borough has been largely disproved.
2. The Conservatives also fell short of the predictions that they'd do very well outside London. There are patchy successes (Nuneaton and Derby) and failures (Plymouth and Trafford)
Overall, unless the remaining results show any real surprises, it looks consistent with the polls, showing the parties deadlocked.
We could have precisely the same GB vote next time but with 20 seats moving from the Tory to the Labour column, on that basis, giving them a majority again.0 -
'Belly of the beast' - not exactly trying to win over potential well heeled remainers are they ?CarlottaVance said:Owen Jones spotted:
https://twitter.com/hackneylad/status/9920679536790609930 -
Ignore itCarlottaVance said:
So the solution to losing votes and seats in LEAVE areas is to stop Brexit? It's a view.TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone one to guess what Lord Adonis' suggestion for Labour to gain more votes is?
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/992286638989443072
Alistair Meeks often posts as Lord Adonis.
You can tell - the avatar is the same bloke.
0 -
That’s the spirit. I’m sure you’ll have him out by lunchtime.SouthamObserver said:This government is divided, incompetent and destructive. Corbyn Labour cannot defeat it. The far left guarantees that the likes of Johnson and Rees Mogg will decide this country’s future. The only way to prevent this is to loosen the far left’s control of the Labour party. That’s why I jumped back into the cesspit. Today I feel totally vindicated.
On Barnet - it wasn’t just Jews that stopped Labour winning, it was their friends and neighbours, too. That is what solidarity looks like. The local party - which is faultless on anti-Semitism - paid for the national leadership’s sins.-1 -
Translation - a Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn and controlled by the far left cannot defeat a hopelessly divided, totally incompetent and utterly destructive Tory government.NickPalmer said:Curtice's assessment:
Although these results are not particularly good for Labour, they are better, relatively speaking, than they were in the general election last year. So you certainly can’t argue that the Labour party has not made any progress as compared with last year’s general election [where the Tories were ahead]. But, on the other hand, you can’t necessarily argue the Labour party is in a stronger position than they were in the 2016 local elections as well as the 2014 local elections [in both of which Labour ended up ahead].
Compared with forecasts:
1. Labour is obviously underperforming in London compared with the forecasts of enthusiasts - in particular the idea that huge numbers of canvassers will swing a strongly Tory borough has been largely disproved.
2. The Conservatives also fell short of the predictions that they'd do very well outside London. There are patchy successes (Nuneaton and Derby) and failures (Plymouth and Trafford)
Overall, unless the remaining results show any real surprises, it looks consistent with the polls, showing the parties deadlocked.
0 -
0
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Hoorar - not settled yet but quite right.... I've won over £100 on that. Well played certain PB 'toss of a coin' tipsters!TheScreamingEagles said:
LadbrokesScrapheap_as_was said:Hang on..... kerching!!! Now who was my bet with...
Paging Owen Jones...
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/9922828045986693140 -
It’s not just “lovely “ it’s absolutely vital that the left and right bury the hatchet. For me the onus is on the leader. Corbyn needs to reach out to Cooper and a couple of others. Cooper as shadow Chancellor would create a more balanced ticket. Corbyn cannot reach all the voters he needs.TheJezziah said:@Jonathan
The needing both wings things sounds lovely but I'm not sure it is all that true, Blair just needed the lefts votes and as time went on not even that so much. The left wing does somewhat need the right wing and that is why there has been some compromise but the right has to accept that the left will be leading for the moment. As much as anything that seems to have been a sticking point..
Corbyn won’t do that,his tribe is content to have won the party. But that is what it will take for Labour to break out of the deadlock and win the country. There are votes to the right of Labour than to the left.
-1 -
I've read that comment from Prof Curtice several times and I still don't understand it. I can't see how Labour are doing better than at last year's general election except in a small number of places like Plymouth and Trafford. Prof Curtice himself said on the BBC's election show that Labour wouldn't have won Battersea which they gained in 2017.NickPalmer said:Curtice's assessment:
Although these results are not particularly good for Labour, they are better, relatively speaking, than they were in the general election last year. So you certainly can’t argue that the Labour party has not made any progress as compared with last year’s general election [where the Tories were ahead]. But, on the other hand, you can’t necessarily argue the Labour party is in a stronger position than they were in the 2016 local elections as well as the 2014 local elections [in both of which Labour ended up ahead].
Compared with forecasts:
1. Labour is obviously underperforming in London compared with the forecasts of enthusiasts - in particular the idea that huge numbers of canvassers will swing a strongly Tory borough has been largely disproved.
2. The Conservatives also fell short of the predictions that they'd do very well outside London. There are patchy successes (Nuneaton and Derby) and failures (Plymouth and Trafford)
Overall, unless the remaining results show any real surprises, it looks consistent with the polls, showing the parties deadlocked.0 -
As will the Tories.Jonathan said:
Being deadlocked means Labour will lose the next general election.NickPalmer said:Curtice's assessment:
Although these results are not particularly good for Labour, they are better, relatively speaking, than they were in the general election last year. So you certainly can’t argue that the Labour party has not made any progress as compared with last year’s general election [where the Tories were ahead]. But, on the other hand, you can’t necessarily argue the Labour party is in a stronger position than they were in the 2016 local elections as well as the 2014 local elections [in both of which Labour ended up ahead].
Compared with forecasts:
1. Labour is obviously underperforming in London compared with the forecasts of enthusiasts - in particular the idea that huge numbers of canvassers will swing a strongly Tory borough has been largely disproved.
2. The Conservatives also fell short of the predictions that they'd do very well outside London. There are patchy successes (Nuneaton and Derby) and failures (Plymouth and Trafford)
Overall, unless the remaining results show any real surprises, it looks consistent with the polls, showing the parties deadlocked.
NOC will be the winner. Which means Corbyn is PM with C&S from the Nats.
0 -
He also said 'tories have the hedge fun bankers, we have the people'Pulpstar said:
'Belly of the beast' - not exactly trying to win over potential well heeled remainers are they ?CarlottaVance said:Owen Jones spotted:
https://twitter.com/hackneylad/status/992067953679060993
Must be a shed ton of evil bankers around.0 -
Cooper has already said she won't serve in his Cabinet?Jonathan said:
It’s not just “lovely “ it’s absolutely vital that the left and right bury the hatchet. For me the onus is on the leader. Corbyn needs to reach out to Cooper and a couple of others. Cooper as shadow Chancellor would create a more balanced ticket. Corbyn cannot reach all the voters he needs.TheJezziah said:@Jonathan
The needing both wings things sounds lovely but I'm not sure it is all that true, Blair just needed the lefts votes and as time went on not even that so much. The left wing does somewhat need the right wing and that is why there has been some compromise but the right has to accept that the left will be leading for the moment. As much as anything that seems to have been a sticking point..
Corbyn won’t do that,his tribe is content to have won the party. But that is what it will take for Labour to break out of the deadlock and win the country. There are votes to the right of Labour than to the left.
I think the Chancellor has to be an ally of the leader. Otherwise I'd agree with reaching out to those in all wings of the party. The issue I think is that many would refuse to work for Corbyn.0 -
Probably around 1pm.TheWhiteRabbit said:
when are the first results from morning counts expected?AndyJS said:All 99 councils that started counting last night have now declared, although there are a few individual wards still to be declared in places like Southgate and Childs Hill where recounts are ongoing.
0 -
The biggest winners last night were the DUP.0
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Well, it was my assumption. I thought it would hit Labour in Childs Hill and Hale, but not really elsewhere.Charles said:
It’s almost if people who said that see them as “others” who behave differently...Casino_Royale said:
I think the assumption that Jews would rebel against Labour but non-Jews would stick with Corbyn was badly mistaken.nunuone said:this is getting ridiculous now.....
https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992275257565196288
They are all neighbours, and probably friends in many instances, and will be more likely to be angry at how they’ve been treated and made to feel.
0
