politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The very early results show the Tories doing well and being op
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The very early results show the Tories doing well and being optimistic
Nuneaton & Bedworth, results of seats up:
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First
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Time for Theresa to consider a Summer election? 0
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Tories lost Wroughton & Wichelstowe (Swindon) to the LDs (1005 vs 998). One more seat and they lose the council.0
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err 4th or 5th0
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Tallies from West Tyrone: SF 46-49%, DUP 22-23%, SDLP 14-16%, UUP 7-8%, Alliance 3-4%.0
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Before Labour get an electable leader?GIN1138 said:Time for Theresa to consider a Summer election?
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This is the Brexit effect in one of the most Remainy places in the whole country.williamglenn said:0 -
You know I'm really tired from my trip to Rome that I'm going to bed at half twelve on an election night.0
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I must admit, I'm surprised at some of the LD gains outside London. I'd expected them to make strides in Richmond and Kingston, and to shed a few elsewhere. It looks like their activist base outside Central Remainia (i.e. South West London) is holding up better than one would have thought.0
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I see 'Polish Pride' got 22 votes in a Broxbourne ward.0
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LOL Labour bod now saying they made a mistake in setting expectations so high0
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Labour are down 4 in Bolton. One more, and they lose control.0
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Reverse, reverse, reverse, expectation management?Floater said:LOL Labour bod now saying they made a mistake in setting expectations so high
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are you volentraly linking the state of the LibDems with fortunes of the remaine fortunes?williamglenn said:0 -
According to Dawn Butler the reason Labour are doing so badly is that they are having to implement Tory austerity with huge budget cuts.
George Osborne is a genius.0 -
..........my vote might make a difference where I live then since there are many more Polish people in my ward then in any ward in Broxbourne...another_richard said:I see 'Polish Pride' got 22 votes in a Broxbourne ward.
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NOTArcs1000 said:I must admit, I'm surprised at some of the LD gains outside London. I'd expected them to make strides in Richmond and Kingston, and to shed a few elsewhere. It looks like their activist base outside Central Remainia (i.e. South West London) is holding up better than one would have thought.
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True, that.another_richard said:
NOTArcs1000 said:I must admit, I'm surprised at some of the LD gains outside London. I'd expected them to make strides in Richmond and Kingston, and to shed a few elsewhere. It looks like their activist base outside Central Remainia (i.e. South West London) is holding up better than one would have thought.
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Weren't you going to bed about 90 minutes ago?TheScreamingEagles said:You know I'm really tired from my trip to Rome that I'm going to bed at half twelve on an election night.
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Thatch went for it after winning the 1987 localsFloater said:
Great plan!!!!GIN1138 said:Time for Theresa to consider a Summer election?
Baldrick himself would approve
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_1987
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Dawn Butler, the morons moron.TheScreamingEagles said:According to Dawn Butler the reason Labour are doing so badly is that they are having to implement Tory austerity with huge budget cuts.
George Osborne is a genius.0 -
Are there that many LibDem Net gains? BBC is saying 6 net gains out of 250+ seats declared so far. I think it is more lickly mostly just churn, with some gains ofsetting losses elswhere, but some getting people more exited than othersrcs1000 said:I must admit, I'm surprised at some of the LD gains outside London. I'd expected them to make strides in Richmond and Kingston, and to shed a few elsewhere. It looks like their activist base outside Central Remainia (i.e. South West London) is holding up better than one would have thought.
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Swindon is a Tory hold. Changes: Lab+1, Con-1.0
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3 Con gains in Cannock0
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Bolton is another leave area, doing a quick google. Curtice called it right earlier on.0
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Now if only Corbyn hadn't visited 5 times...AndyJS said:Swindon is a Tory hold. Changes: Lab+1, Con-1.
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They've got quite a few candidates in London where they should do much better than that.another_richard said:I see 'Polish Pride' got 22 votes in a Broxbourne ward.
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Pilkington Park - Bury: Con gain from Labour0
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OGH asked me to do a thread with the early results.Cookie said:
Weren't you going to bed about 90 minutes ago?TheScreamingEagles said:You know I'm really tired from my trip to Rome that I'm going to bed at half twelve on an election night.
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Snigger "Labour have to do some deep thinking"
Hardly a comment from a party expecting great things0 -
The name sound a bit....erhhhh....like the BNP for Poles.AndyJS said:
They've got quite a few candidates in London where they should do much better than that.another_richard said:I see 'Polish Pride' got 22 votes in a Broxbourne ward.
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Labour extremely lucky in Chorley...they are surviving in all their recounts.
The wards going to recounts are the Labour held ones though0 -
I think there are specific issues with the Labour Council in Bolton. This is a rare example of a local election being won and lost on local issues. Can't remember what they are, though.The_Apocalypse said:Bolton is another leave area, doing a quick google. Curtice called it right earlier on.
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I was thinking it was gay Poles!FrancisUrquhart said:
The name sound a bit....erhhhh....like the BNP for Poles.AndyJS said:
They've got quite a few candidates in London where they should do much better than that.another_richard said:I see 'Polish Pride' got 22 votes in a Broxbourne ward.
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Are tories really going to lose Trafford...I know it's not like the other parts of greater Manchester but still...AndreaParma_82 said:Pilkington Park - Bury: Con gain from Labour
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I don't think the LDs have lost many (any?) seats yet.BigRich said:
Are there that many LibDem Net gains? BBC is saying 6 net gains out of 250+ seats declared so far. I think it is more lickly mostly just churn, with some gains ofsetting losses elswhere, but some getting people more exited than othersrcs1000 said:I must admit, I'm surprised at some of the LD gains outside London. I'd expected them to make strides in Richmond and Kingston, and to shed a few elsewhere. It looks like their activist base outside Central Remainia (i.e. South West London) is holding up better than one would have thought.
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Ah. Then I salute your dedication to the cause. I thought you just couldn't tear yourself away.TheScreamingEagles said:
OGH asked me to do a thread with the early results.Cookie said:
Weren't you going to bed about 90 minutes ago?TheScreamingEagles said:You know I'm really tired from my trip to Rome that I'm going to bed at half twelve on an election night.
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BTW the Andrew Teale site is a great reference for making results comparisons:
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/33/0 -
2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swindon_Borough_Council_election,_2014#Wroughton_&_Wichelstowe_Ward
2018: http://ww5.swindon.gov.uk/moderngov/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=19&RPID=5646241
How's that not a LD gain? I guess it could be notional LD due to boundary changes, although I can't see any mention of there being any.0 -
It is different, much more Remainy, middle-class and bourgeois than anywhere else.nunuone said:
Are tories really going to lose Trafford...I know it's not like the other parts of greater Manchester but still...AndreaParma_82 said:Pilkington Park - Bury: Con gain from Labour
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Were Labour expected to make gains outside of London? The narrative prior to tonight seemed to centre on them doing well in London.
Ah, thanks for that info.Cookie said:
I think there are specific issues with the Labour Council in Bolton. This is a rare example of a local election being won and lost on local issues. Can't remember what they are, though.The_Apocalypse said:Bolton is another leave area, doing a quick google. Curtice called it right earlier on.
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Recounts in Harlow0
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With some inner-city shithole as well.AndyJS said:
It is different, much more Remainy, middle-class and bourgeois than anywhere else.nunuone said:
Are tories really going to lose Trafford...I know it's not like the other parts of greater Manchester but still...AndreaParma_82 said:Pilkington Park - Bury: Con gain from Labour
But very little small town wwc where the Conservatives are doing well.0 -
Parts of Bury South are quite heavily Jewish - not natural Corbyn territory.nunuone said:
Are tories really going to lose Trafford...I know it's not like the other parts of greater Manchester but still...AndreaParma_82 said:Pilkington Park - Bury: Con gain from Labour
I fear for Trafford.0 -
LibDems need to be 25 votes ahead to get elected now. It's a new rule to equalise things after their abuse of bar charts.RobD said:2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swindon_Borough_Council_election,_2014#Wroughton_&_Wichelstowe_Ward
2018: http://ww5.swindon.gov.uk/moderngov/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=19&RPID=5646241
How's that not a LD gain? I guess it could be notional LD due to boundary changes?0 -
Sky or BBC for the coverage?0
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Basildon: Con gain from NOC.0
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It'd have to have a pretty massive boundary change to make it notionally LibDem.RobD said:2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swindon_Borough_Council_election,_2014#Wroughton_&_Wichelstowe_Ward
2018: http://ww5.swindon.gov.uk/moderngov/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=19&RPID=5646241
How's that not a LD gain? I guess it could be notional LD due to boundary changes, although I can't see any mention of there being any.0 -
BBC seems better at the moment. Prof Thrasher doesn't seem to be on Sky tonight.FrancisUrquhart said:Sky or BBC for the coverage?
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Depends on whether you can cope with McDonnell and Wera on BBC...FrancisUrquhart said:Sky or BBC for the coverage?
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No Thrasher = I won't be watching Sky then.AndyJS said:
BBC seems better at the moment. Prof Thrasher doesn't seem to be on Sky tonight.FrancisUrquhart said:Sky or BBC for the coverage?
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WTF, I turn Sky on and they have a load of emoji bollocks. I am not a 12 year old.0
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UKIP hang on to 4 councillors in Basildon0
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yes he is he was on earlierAndyJS said:
BBC seems better at the moment. Prof Thrasher doesn't seem to be on Sky tonight.FrancisUrquhart said:Sky or BBC for the coverage?
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Thrasher coming up on Sky shortly....0
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I miss Jeremy Vine pretending to be Clint Eastwood...0
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He was on Sky News earlier and they said he’ll be providing analysis throughout the night.AndyJS said:
BBC seems better at the moment. Prof Thrasher doesn't seem to be on Sky tonight.FrancisUrquhart said:Sky or BBC for the coverage?
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Who is this guy on Sky then - oh Prof Thrasher0
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Conservatives gain Essex from NOC.0
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The emoji thing Sky is equally dumbed down nonsense.GIN1138 said:I miss Jeremy Vine pretending to be Clint Eastwood...
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Bury
Elton: Labour hold (it was a Lab gain in 2014)
Ramsbottom: Lab gain from Con0 -
The lack of terrible bbc cgi is disappointing.0
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I blame Tory cuts.Rhubarb said:The lack of terrible bbc cgi is disappointing.
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Basildon elects by thirds doesn't it. Those 5 UKIP councillors left weren't standing tonight - they got elected I assume in 2015 and 2016? UKIP lost the 10 seats they won in 2014.rcs1000 said:
Wow. That's a surprise. A much better night for UKIP than last year.Pulpstar said:UKIP hang on to 4 councillors in Basildon
How's Henry Bolton's lot doing?0 -
1 Lab gain from UKIP in Bolton0
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Ah yes sorry forgot thatbrendan16 said:
Basildon elects by thirds doesn't it. Those 5 UKIP councillors left weren't standing tonight - they got elected I assume in 2015? UKIP lost the 10 seats they won in 2014.rcs1000 said:
Wow. That's a surprise. A much better night for UKIP than last year.Pulpstar said:UKIP hang on to 4 councillors in Basildon
How's Henry Bolton's lot doing?0 -
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For context, these are both pretty middle class areas. The WWC seem to be swinging in the opposite way to the middle classes.AndreaParma_82 said:Bury
Elton: Labour hold (it was a Lab gain in 2014)
Ramsbottom: Lab gain from Con0 -
Well that's me done. Enjoy the rest of the night PB.0
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Conservative GAIN Kersal (Salford) from Labour.0
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McDonnell very rattled.0
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LibDems are gaining seats in Liverpool0
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Most Jewish ward outside London I think.nunuone said:0 -
15 years ago they held two thirds of the seats.AndreaParma_82 said:LibDems are gaining seats in Liverpool
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He must be taking a rest from the show at present.TheScreamingEagles said:
He was on Sky News earlier and they said he’ll be providing analysis throughout the night.AndyJS said:
BBC seems better at the moment. Prof Thrasher doesn't seem to be on Sky tonight.FrancisUrquhart said:Sky or BBC for the coverage?
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Radcliffe North - Bury: Con gain from Lab0
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From Curtice:
EU referendum effect?
Professor Sir John Curtice
Polling expert
So far the Conservative vote is only up by two points on average in council areas where less than 55% voted Leave in 2016. In contrast, the party's vote is up by 12 points in places where more than 55% voted Leave.
Meanwhile, the Labour vote is up by seven points on average in places where less than 55% voted Leave, while its vote is up by four points in places where more than 55% did so. It looks as though the shadow of the EU referendum is going to be apparent in these elections in the way that they were in last year's general election.0 -
Tameside - Ashton Hurst: Lab gain from Con
Preston - College: Lab gain from Con0 -
Turn out in Oxford is 38%
(And Bernie Sanders' brother has failed to get elected again as a Green candidate!)0 -
All parties are up except UKIP and Lab so far.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-20180 -
It's the start of the Lib Dem come-back.....RobD said:
15 years ago they held two thirds of the seats.AndreaParma_82 said:LibDems are gaining seats in Liverpool
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Didn't we used to have a pb.com poster who was a Tory hopeful in Radcliffe - Stuart Penketh? Wasn't him, was it?AndreaParma_82 said:Radcliffe North - Bury: Con gain from Lab
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