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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The very early results show the Tories doing well and being op

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    @Casino_Royale Can breathe a sigh of relief, the Tories have held Hart.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    50 out of 150 councils declared:

    Lab -6
    Con +54
    LD +12
    Greens +2
    UKIP -69

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-2018
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601

    HYUFD said:

    Just got back from Epping Forest DC count, in the end the LDs held my ward of Epping Hemnall quite comfortably but I did at least increase the number of Tory votes to 554 from 420 in 2014.

    The Tories also held Epping Lindsey and Thornwood by just 30 votes after the LDs flung everything at it in a tight battle later in the day

    Well done.
    Thankyou
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    Just flicked over and McIRA is screaming "THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE"....what has been said?

    Perry started on at him about anti-semitism, his own record on violent language towards women, Labour claiming that Tories kill children

    She went for him and he came very close to lashing out.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Net Lab Losses now down to -6 perhaps they will move to a net gain soon
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Just flicked over and McIRA is screaming "THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE"....what has been said?

    Perry was disagreeing with his analysis...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,135

    Just flicked over and McIRA is screaming "THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE"....what has been said?

    Perry started on at him about anti-semitism, his own record on violent language towards women, Labour claiming that Tories kill children

    She went for him and he came very close to lashing out.
    She's clearly not in the baby-eating wing of the party....

    *dabs mouth with napkin*
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546

    Just flicked over and McIRA is screaming "THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE"....what has been said?

    Perry started on at him about anti-semitism, his own record on violent language towards women, Labour claiming that Tories kill children

    She went for him and he came very close to lashing out.
    He is happy to hand it out, but never seem able to take it when it come back at him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Seems the south coast is good for Labour.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    McIRA's face is redder than his tie.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Dawn Butler - hardly Labour's brightest button.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,135
    Liam Fox, nothing better to do? :p
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,718
    Abbey Road, Westminster, shows a swing to the Tories.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited May 2018

    Dawn Butler - hardly Labour's brightest button.

    Understatement of the year...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Earlsdon and Cheylesmore still counting in Coventry.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    UKIP have held a seat - shock
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP not wiped out: they've won a seat in Derby. Funny if it's in Williamson's constituency.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601
    UKIP have won 1 seat in Derby in an otherwise bad night for them
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited May 2018
    I feel I have lost a couple of IQ points listening to Dawn Butler for the past 5 minutes...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Lol Derby !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,135
    Hold the phone, UKIP have won a seat :o
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    RobD said:

    Hold the phone, UKIP have won a seat :o

    where?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    BigRich said:

    RobD said:

    Hold the phone, UKIP have won a seat :o

    where?
    Derby :o
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601
    Swing of 4% across Waltham Forest to Labour, John Curtice says if repeated across London Labour would fail to take Wandsworth or Westminster
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Here's Rolf Harris on the BBC....
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Why are the BBC giving Lansman air time - they already have Butler for his party
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    BigRich said:

    RobD said:

    Hold the phone, UKIP have won a seat :o

    where?
    Derby
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Any rumours from the big London fights?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Three Labour gains in Queenstown ward of Wandsworth.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    HYUFD said:

    Swing of 4% across Waltham Forest to Labour, John Curtice says if repeated across London Labour would fail to take Wandsworth or Westminster

    That was just one of 3 key wards - first was a swing of 6% to Labour, a second of 4% to Labour and a third with a small swing to the Tories. So it is not uniform within Waltham Forest - but also not indicative of a real Labour uptick
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    A disappointing night for Labour will increase the pressure on their leadership to change their policy on Brexit.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    A disappointing night for Labour will increase the pressure on their leadership to change their policy on Brexit.

    Oh good grief, change the record william.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546

    A disappointing night for Labour will increase the pressure on their leadership to change their policy on Brexit.

    What to be more supportive of Leave as they are losing lots of wards in areas where leave vote was high?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    A disappointing night for Labour will increase the pressure on their leadership to change their policy on Brexit.

    Losing votes in Leave areas will prompt them to do what, do you think?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601

    HYUFD said:

    Swing of 4% across Waltham Forest to Labour, John Curtice says if repeated across London Labour would fail to take Wandsworth or Westminster

    That was just one of 3 key wards - first was a swing of 6% to Labour, a second of 4% to Labour and a third with a small swing to the Tories. So it is not uniform within Waltham Forest - but also not indicative of a real Labour uptick
    Labour needs a swing more like the first of those wards or more I think if they are going to take many Tory councils in London by the end of the night, as you say no real Labour uptick
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    A disappointing night for Labour will increase the pressure on their leadership to change their policy on Brexit.

    Yes they should become, more pro Brexit, proper full Bresit that is, than UKIP was!! so they can regain some of there votes
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Claire Perry is busy tonight - she was on the BBC for two hours and now she has moved over to Sky News!
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Mortimer said:

    A disappointing night for Labour will increase the pressure on their leadership to change their policy on Brexit.

    Oh good grief, change the record william.
    he means they will have to back no customs union..........
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    AndyJS said:
    With figures like those, maybe he should be leader?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    AndyJS said:
    He is well placed to be their next leader now
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    felix said:

    Any rumours from the big London fights?

    Labour say they haven't won in Westminster, Kensington&Chelsea, and sound very downbeat in Wandsworth. LDs confident in Richmond. Barnet too close to call.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    felix said:

    Any rumours from the big London fights?

    First seat in Westminster - Beatles ward - had the Tories with an increased majority.

    Seems they will hold Westminster, Kensington and Wandsworth -.Barnet hard to call..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617

    A disappointing night for Labour will increase the pressure on their leadership to change their policy on Brexit.

    You might be right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601
    Tories have lost control of Trafford, so better news for Labour there
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733

    Why are the BBC giving Lansman air time - they already have Butler for his party

    They do interview people other than the panel. Now talking to Graham Brady
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Tories have lost control of Trafford, so better news for Labour there

    Although only 4 seats have actually been declared.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Cheylesmore and Earlsdon might be going to recounts in Coventry, they were always going to be the closest wards I think
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601
    Labour retain Reading
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,718
    A real shock result! The Conservatives have won all 3 seats in Belgravia.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Sean_F said:

    A real shock result! The Conservatives have won all 3 seats in Belgravia.

    :)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    I wonder if tonight might dispel the Tories have lost London for a generation because of Brexit line that some of our resident Remainers have tried to convince us of
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    edited May 2018
    Con hold Cheylesmore in Coventry, that's an excellent result for them there.

    This chap will be pleased ;)

    https://twitter.com/johnablundell/status/991924914709041152
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,692
    My free advice to Labour spinners - start talking about "still in honeymoon period, only 11 months since election" etc.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited May 2018
    The media narrative is now set in concrete for tonights elections....everything is Brexit, Brexit, Brexit...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    My free advice to Labour spinners - start talking about "still in honeymoon period, only 11 months since election" etc.

    An eight year honeymoon :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,135
    Peak Corybn? :o
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    The media narrative is now set in concrete for tonights elections....everything is Brexit, Brexit, Brexit...

    Even though it isn't
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Kuennsberg calls peak Corbyn !
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    AndyJS said:
    He is well placed to be their next leader now
    Thats a good result, in any book, but especially in a night going so badly for UKIP everywhere else!

    I don't think there are many UKIPs on this sight at the moment and if they where, no reason for them to listen to me. but IMHO there best Course of action would be to change there Party in to a presser group, and encourage there members to join other party's so they can elect the most BREXITI candid possible, and then have the group endorses whichever candidate is the most BREXITI in each individual election. The most inflenchall voters are swing voters! and defiantly more dignified than the last year of the party.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546

    The media narrative is now set in concrete for tonights elections....everything is Brexit, Brexit, Brexit...

    Even though it isn't
    Sheffield councillors losing seats would still be something or other to do with Brexit....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sean_F said:

    A real shock result! The Conservatives have won all 3 seats in Belgravia.

    Which wards?
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    Net change in councils currently is Con +2, Lab -1 as per BBC
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,903
    Mortimer said:

    I wonder if tonight might dispel the Tories have lost London for a generation because of Brexit line that some of our resident Remainers have tried to convince us of

    I was hoping that the London Independence Party would stand :wink:
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Right, I'm off - g'night all!
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    The media narrative is now set in concrete for tonights elections....everything is Brexit, Brexit, Brexit...

    Even though it isn't
    Sheffield councillors losing seats would still be something or other to do with Brexit....
    Does tree felling fall under any of the Brexit departments?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    A real shock result! The Conservatives have won all 3 seats in Belgravia.

    Which wards?
    They won Knightsbridge and Belgravia on Westminster council with 79 per cent of the vote - Labour came third and its vote share fell!
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,551
    Ukip has won a seat... (in derby) taking out the leader of the city council. it could take labour out of control of the council (as the other parties are likely to work together...

    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/992215724369342464
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    edited May 2018
    A bright light for Labour in Coventry, they've gained Earlsdon. Middle class area with expensive but not massive houses.
    Town middle class.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    edited May 2018
    Wow - Labour's membership has grown over the past 2 hours.

    Dawn Butler has added at least 500,000 to the total since she appeared on the BBC - now over 600k

    If they were all committed campaigning types who were pounding the streets to drop leaflets, canvas, knocking up voters then Labour would be miles ahead. But it is very clear that they don't actually have the foot soldiers who will do the real work - otherwise they wouldn't be looking at the results they are tonight.

    Keyboard warriors don't win elections. Many of them don't actually vote.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Dawn Butler...she speaks like a malfunctioning Westworld host ...its a jumble of political words and phrases, but makes no sense.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited May 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    A bright light for Labour in Coventry, they've gained Earlsdon. Middle class area with expensive but not massive houses.

    Lots of students live in Earlsdon.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617

    Pulpstar said:

    A bright light for Labour in Coventry, they've gained Earlsdon. Middle class area with expensive but not massive houses.

    Lots of students live in Earlsdon.
    Even though it was the only Tory loss, there were more conservative votes in Earlsdon than any other ward !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601
    Pulpstar said:

    Con hold Cheylesmore in Coventry, that's an excellent result for them there.

    This chap will be pleased ;)

    https://twitter.com/johnablundell/status/991924914709041152

    Odd the Tories hold Cheylesmore but lose Earlsdon, when I was at Warwick University Earlsdon was the safe Tory ward and Cheylesmore was a marginal ward
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    @HYUFD It fits with the overall national picture though.

    The safest Tory ward in Coventry is now Woodlands !
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    Labour have finally broken even on councillor losses and gains with 67 councils in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601
    edited May 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    @HYUFD It fits with the overall national picture though.

    The safest Tory ward in Coventry is now Woodlands !

    Student vote I expect in Earlsdon as stated earlier, otherwise national picture as you say
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,601
    edited May 2018
    Anyway, been a long day, off to bed. Night all.

    I think the trend is now clear, Labour underperformance, reasonable night for Tories and LDs, terrible night for UKIP
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    spudgfsh said:

    Ukip has won a seat... (in derby) taking out the leader of the city council. it could take labour out of control of the council (as the other parties are likely to work together...

    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/992215724369342464

    That wasn't in the Labour script was it.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    AndyJS said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Ukip has won a seat... (in derby) taking out the leader of the city council. it could take labour out of control of the council (as the other parties are likely to work together...

    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/992215724369342464

    That wasn't in the Labour script was it.
    Tbh I don't think gains were in the UKIP script. They were dreaming of holds!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Sounds like labour doing badly in derby.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    HYUFD said:

    terrible night for UKIP

    Except in Derby !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    The malfunctioning Westworld host is off again...just imagine her actually in charge of a government department....shudders.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    The sight of McDonnell and now Dawn Butler talking up Ed Milibands's achievements in order to justify tonight's results is laughable.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    HYUFD said:

    Just got back from Epping Forest DC count, in the end the LDs held my ward of Epping Hemnall quite comfortably but I did at least increase the number of Tory votes to 554 from 420 in 2014.

    The Tories also held Epping Lindsey and Thornwood by just 30 votes after the LDs flung everything at it in a tight battle later in the day

    You increased your vote, not too shabby.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Sounds like labour doing badly in derby.

    Chris Williamson's back yard.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited May 2018
    N/T
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,551
    AndyJS said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Ukip has won a seat... (in derby) taking out the leader of the city council. it could take labour out of control of the council (as the other parties are likely to work together...

    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/992215724369342464

    That wasn't in the Labour script was it.
    The local labour party in Derby are very unpopular. It's been one fiasco after another and the leader of the labour group who is a controversial figure (to put it lightly) hasn't made it any easier for them.
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