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SystemSystem Posts: 12,838
edited May 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The very early results show the Tories doing well and being optimistic

Nuneaton & Bedworth, results of seats up:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,885
    First :o
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,980
    Time for Theresa to consider a Summer election? :open_mouth:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,885
    edited May 2018
    Tories lost Wroughton & Wichelstowe (Swindon) to the LDs (1005 vs 998). One more seat and they lose the council.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    edited May 2018
    err 4th or 5th
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Tallies from West Tyrone: SF 46-49%, DUP 22-23%, SDLP 14-16%, UUP 7-8%, Alliance 3-4%.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/992185517075771393
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,673
    GIN1138 said:

    Time for Theresa to consider a Summer election? :open_mouth:

    Before Labour get an electable leader?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,997
    GIN1138 said:

    Time for Theresa to consider a Summer election? :open_mouth:

    Pretty please.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,507
    GIN1138 said:

    Time for Theresa to consider a Summer election? :open_mouth:

    Worked like a dream last time...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,673
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/992185757434564608
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,639
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/992185757434564608

    This is the Brexit effect in one of the most Remainy places in the whole country.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    GIN1138 said:

    Time for Theresa to consider a Summer election? :open_mouth:

    Great plan!!!!

    Baldrick himself would approve
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,227
    You know I'm really tired from my trip to Rome that I'm going to bed at half twelve on an election night.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,639
    I must admit, I'm surprised at some of the LD gains outside London. I'd expected them to make strides in Richmond and Kingston, and to shed a few elsewhere. It looks like their activist base outside Central Remainia (i.e. South West London) is holding up better than one would have thought.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,672
    I see 'Polish Pride' got 22 votes in a Broxbourne ward.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    LOL Labour bod now saying they made a mistake in setting expectations so high
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,090
    Labour are down 4 in Bolton. One more, and they lose control.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992186535385681920
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    Floater said:

    LOL Labour bod now saying they made a mistake in setting expectations so high

    Reverse, reverse, reverse, expectation management?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/992185757434564608

    are you volentraly linking the state of the LibDems with fortunes of the remaine fortunes?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,227
    According to Dawn Butler the reason Labour are doing so badly is that they are having to implement Tory austerity with huge budget cuts.

    George Osborne is a genius.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    another_richard said:

    I see 'Polish Pride' got 22 votes in a Broxbourne ward.

    ..........my vote might make a difference where I live then since there are many more Polish people in my ward then in any ward in Broxbourne...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,672
    rcs1000 said:

    I must admit, I'm surprised at some of the LD gains outside London. I'd expected them to make strides in Richmond and Kingston, and to shed a few elsewhere. It looks like their activist base outside Central Remainia (i.e. South West London) is holding up better than one would have thought.

    NOTA
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Sean_F said:

    Labour are down 4 in Bolton. One more, and they lose control.

    OMFG!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,639
    another_richard said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I must admit, I'm surprised at some of the LD gains outside London. I'd expected them to make strides in Richmond and Kingston, and to shed a few elsewhere. It looks like their activist base outside Central Remainia (i.e. South West London) is holding up better than one would have thought.

    NOTA
    True, that.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,507
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You know I'm really tired from my trip to Rome that I'm going to bed at half twelve on an election night.

    Weren't you going to bed about 90 minutes ago?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,980
    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Time for Theresa to consider a Summer election? :open_mouth:

    Great plan!!!!

    Baldrick himself would approve
    Thatch went for it after winning the 1987 locals

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_1987

    :D
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Sean_F said:

    Labour are down 4 in Bolton. One more, and they lose control.

    oh dear - what a shame
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    According to Dawn Butler the reason Labour are doing so badly is that they are having to implement Tory austerity with huge budget cuts.

    George Osborne is a genius.

    Dawn Butler, the morons moron.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    rcs1000 said:

    I must admit, I'm surprised at some of the LD gains outside London. I'd expected them to make strides in Richmond and Kingston, and to shed a few elsewhere. It looks like their activist base outside Central Remainia (i.e. South West London) is holding up better than one would have thought.

    Are there that many LibDem Net gains? BBC is saying 6 net gains out of 250+ seats declared so far. I think it is more lickly mostly just churn, with some gains ofsetting losses elswhere, but some getting people more exited than others
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Swindon is a Tory hold. Changes: Lab+1, Con-1.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    3 Con gains in Cannock
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,831
    Bolton is another leave area, doing a quick google. Curtice called it right earlier on.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    AndyJS said:

    Swindon is a Tory hold. Changes: Lab+1, Con-1.

    Now if only Corbyn hadn't visited 5 times...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    another_richard said:

    I see 'Polish Pride' got 22 votes in a Broxbourne ward.

    They've got quite a few candidates in London where they should do much better than that.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Pilkington Park - Bury: Con gain from Labour
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,227
    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You know I'm really tired from my trip to Rome that I'm going to bed at half twelve on an election night.

    Weren't you going to bed about 90 minutes ago?
    OGH asked me to do a thread with the early results.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,885
    AndyJS said:

    Swindon is a Tory hold. Changes: Lab+1, Con-1.

    Lib Dems definitely gained one in Swindon.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Snigger "Labour have to do some deep thinking"

    Hardly a comment from a party expecting great things
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    AndyJS said:

    another_richard said:

    I see 'Polish Pride' got 22 votes in a Broxbourne ward.

    They've got quite a few candidates in London where they should do much better than that.
    The name sound a bit....erhhhh....like the BNP for Poles.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour extremely lucky in Chorley...they are surviving in all their recounts.
    The wards going to recounts are the Labour held ones though
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,507
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Bolton is another leave area, doing a quick google. Curtice called it right earlier on.

    I think there are specific issues with the Labour Council in Bolton. This is a rare example of a local election being won and lost on local issues. Can't remember what they are, though.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,498
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    another_richard said:

    I see 'Polish Pride' got 22 votes in a Broxbourne ward.

    They've got quite a few candidates in London where they should do much better than that.
    The name sound a bit....erhhhh....like the BNP for Poles.
    I was thinking it was gay Poles!
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Pilkington Park - Bury: Con gain from Labour

    Are tories really going to lose Trafford...I know it's not like the other parts of greater Manchester but still...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Swindon is a Tory hold. Changes: Lab+1, Con-1.

    Lib Dems definitely gained one in Swindon.
    Sky say not
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,639
    BigRich said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I must admit, I'm surprised at some of the LD gains outside London. I'd expected them to make strides in Richmond and Kingston, and to shed a few elsewhere. It looks like their activist base outside Central Remainia (i.e. South West London) is holding up better than one would have thought.

    Are there that many LibDem Net gains? BBC is saying 6 net gains out of 250+ seats declared so far. I think it is more lickly mostly just churn, with some gains ofsetting losses elswhere, but some getting people more exited than others
    I don't think the LDs have lost many (any?) seats yet.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,507
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You know I'm really tired from my trip to Rome that I'm going to bed at half twelve on an election night.

    Weren't you going to bed about 90 minutes ago?
    OGH asked me to do a thread with the early results.
    Ah. Then I salute your dedication to the cause. I thought you just couldn't tear yourself away.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,672
    BTW the Andrew Teale site is a great reference for making results comparisons:

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/33/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,885
    edited May 2018
    2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swindon_Borough_Council_election,_2014#Wroughton_&_Wichelstowe_Ward
    2018: http://ww5.swindon.gov.uk/moderngov/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=19&RPID=5646241

    How's that not a LD gain? I guess it could be notional LD due to boundary changes, although I can't see any mention of there being any.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    nunuone said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Pilkington Park - Bury: Con gain from Labour

    Are tories really going to lose Trafford...I know it's not like the other parts of greater Manchester but still...
    It is different, much more Remainy, middle-class and bourgeois than anywhere else.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,831
    Were Labour expected to make gains outside of London? The narrative prior to tonight seemed to centre on them doing well in London.
    Cookie said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Bolton is another leave area, doing a quick google. Curtice called it right earlier on.

    I think there are specific issues with the Labour Council in Bolton. This is a rare example of a local election being won and lost on local issues. Can't remember what they are, though.
    Ah, thanks for that info.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Recounts in Harlow
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,672
    AndyJS said:

    nunuone said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Pilkington Park - Bury: Con gain from Labour

    Are tories really going to lose Trafford...I know it's not like the other parts of greater Manchester but still...
    It is different, much more Remainy, middle-class and bourgeois than anywhere else.
    With some inner-city shithole as well.

    But very little small town wwc where the Conservatives are doing well.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,507
    nunuone said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Pilkington Park - Bury: Con gain from Labour

    Are tories really going to lose Trafford...I know it's not like the other parts of greater Manchester but still...
    Parts of Bury South are quite heavily Jewish - not natural Corbyn territory.

    I fear for Trafford.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,639
    RobD said:

    2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swindon_Borough_Council_election,_2014#Wroughton_&_Wichelstowe_Ward
    2018: http://ww5.swindon.gov.uk/moderngov/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=19&RPID=5646241

    How's that not a LD gain? I guess it could be notional LD due to boundary changes?

    LibDems need to be 25 votes ahead to get elected now. It's a new rule to equalise things after their abuse of bar charts.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    Sky or BBC for the coverage?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Basildon: Con gain from NOC.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,639
    RobD said:

    2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swindon_Borough_Council_election,_2014#Wroughton_&_Wichelstowe_Ward
    2018: http://ww5.swindon.gov.uk/moderngov/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=19&RPID=5646241

    How's that not a LD gain? I guess it could be notional LD due to boundary changes, although I can't see any mention of there being any.

    It'd have to have a pretty massive boundary change to make it notionally LibDem.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sky or BBC for the coverage?

    BBC seems better at the moment. Prof Thrasher doesn't seem to be on Sky tonight.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sky or BBC for the coverage?

    Depends on whether you can cope with McDonnell and Wera on BBC...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    AndyJS said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sky or BBC for the coverage?

    BBC seems better at the moment. Prof Thrasher doesn't seem to be on Sky tonight.
    No Thrasher = I won't be watching Sky then.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/992190073964654593
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    WTF, I turn Sky on and they have a load of emoji bollocks. I am not a 12 year old.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,441
    UKIP hang on to 4 councillors in Basildon
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    AndyJS said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sky or BBC for the coverage?

    BBC seems better at the moment. Prof Thrasher doesn't seem to be on Sky tonight.
    yes he is he was on earlier
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,639
    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP hang on to 4 councillors in Basildon

    Wow. That's a surprise. A much better night for UKIP than last year.

    How's Henry Bolton's lot doing?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    Thrasher coming up on Sky shortly....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,980
    I miss Jeremy Vine pretending to be Clint Eastwood...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,227
    AndyJS said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sky or BBC for the coverage?

    BBC seems better at the moment. Prof Thrasher doesn't seem to be on Sky tonight.
    He was on Sky News earlier and they said he’ll be providing analysis throughout the night.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Who is this guy on Sky then - oh Prof Thrasher
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,639
    Conservatives gain Essex from NOC.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    GIN1138 said:

    I miss Jeremy Vine pretending to be Clint Eastwood...

    The emoji thing Sky is equally dumbed down nonsense.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Bury

    Elton: Labour hold (it was a Lab gain in 2014)

    Ramsbottom: Lab gain from Con
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    The lack of terrible bbc cgi is disappointing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,172
    Rhubarb said:

    The lack of terrible bbc cgi is disappointing.

    I blame Tory cuts.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/992190934518521859
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP hang on to 4 councillors in Basildon

    Wow. That's a surprise. A much better night for UKIP than last year.

    How's Henry Bolton's lot doing?
    Basildon elects by thirds doesn't it. Those 5 UKIP councillors left weren't standing tonight - they got elected I assume in 2015 and 2016? UKIP lost the 10 seats they won in 2014.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    1 Lab gain from UKIP in Bolton
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,441
    brendan16 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP hang on to 4 councillors in Basildon

    Wow. That's a surprise. A much better night for UKIP than last year.

    How's Henry Bolton's lot doing?
    Basildon elects by thirds doesn't it. Those 5 UKIP councillors left weren't standing tonight - they got elected I assume in 2015? UKIP lost the 10 seats they won in 2014.
    Ah yes sorry forgot that
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/992190934518521859

    Reports out of Barnet say the anti semitism issue has had an effect.

  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,507
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Bury

    Elton: Labour hold (it was a Lab gain in 2014)

    Ramsbottom: Lab gain from Con

    For context, these are both pretty middle class areas. The WWC seem to be swinging in the opposite way to the middle classes.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,980
    Well that's me done. Enjoy the rest of the night PB.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,268
    Conservative GAIN Kersal (Salford) from Labour.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,507
    Chameleon said:

    Conservative GAIN Kersal (Salford) from Labour.

    Also very Jewish (c 33%)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,885
    GIN1138 said:

    Well that's me done. Enjoy the rest of the night PB.

    Not exciting enough for you? :p
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    rcs1000 said:

    Conservatives gain Essex from NOC.

    Don't you mean Basildon. Essex county council has a huge Tory majority from the elections last year.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/992192453569544193
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,441
    McDonnell very rattled.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    LibDems are gaining seats in Liverpool
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    nunuone said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/992192453569544193

    Most Jewish ward outside London I think.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,885
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    LibDems are gaining seats in Liverpool

    15 years ago they held two thirds of the seats.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sky or BBC for the coverage?

    BBC seems better at the moment. Prof Thrasher doesn't seem to be on Sky tonight.
    He was on Sky News earlier and they said he’ll be providing analysis throughout the night.
    He must be taking a rest from the show at present.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Radcliffe North - Bury: Con gain from Lab
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,831
    From Curtice:

    EU referendum effect?

    Professor Sir John Curtice
    Polling expert
    So far the Conservative vote is only up by two points on average in council areas where less than 55% voted Leave in 2016. In contrast, the party's vote is up by 12 points in places where more than 55% voted Leave.

    Meanwhile, the Labour vote is up by seven points on average in places where less than 55% voted Leave, while its vote is up by four points in places where more than 55% did so. It looks as though the shadow of the EU referendum is going to be apparent in these elections in the way that they were in last year's general election.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2018
    Tameside - Ashton Hurst: Lab gain from Con

    Preston - College: Lab gain from Con
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,639
    brendan16 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Conservatives gain Essex from NOC.

    Don't you mean Basildon. Essex county council has a huge Tory majority from the elections last year.
    I was copying from the bbc live feed
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    Turn out in Oxford is 38%

    (And Bernie Sanders' brother has failed to get elected again as a Green candidate!)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    All parties are up except UKIP and Lab so far.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-2018
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    RobD said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    LibDems are gaining seats in Liverpool

    15 years ago they held two thirds of the seats.
    It's the start of the Lib Dem come-back.....
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,507
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Radcliffe North - Bury: Con gain from Lab

    Didn't we used to have a pb.com poster who was a Tory hopeful in Radcliffe - Stuart Penketh? Wasn't him, was it?
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