politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The very early results show the Tories doing well and being op

System · May 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The very early results show the Tories doing well and being optimistic

Nuneaton & Bedworth, results of seats up:

Read the full story here

RobD · May 2018

First

GIN1138 · May 2018

Time for Theresa to consider a Summer election?

RobD · May 2018

Tories lost Wroughton & Wichelstowe (Swindon) to the LDs (1005 vs 998). One more seat and they lose the council.

Floater · May 2018

err 4th or 5th

AndreaParma_82 · May 2018

Tallies from West Tyrone: SF 46-49%, DUP 22-23%, SDLP 14-16%, UUP 7-8%, Alliance 3-4%.

nunuone · May 2018

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/992185517075771393

williamglenn · May 2018

GIN1138 said:
Time for Theresa to consider a Summer election?

Before Labour get an electable leader?

dixiedean · May 2018

GIN1138 said:
Time for Theresa to consider a Summer election?

Pretty please.

Cookie · May 2018

GIN1138 said:
Time for Theresa to consider a Summer election?

Worked like a dream last time...

williamglenn · May 2018

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/992185757434564608

rcs1000 · May 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/992185757434564608

This is the Brexit effect in one of the most Remainy places in the whole country.

Floater · May 2018

GIN1138 said:
Time for Theresa to consider a Summer election?

Great plan!!!!

Baldrick himself would approve

TheScreamingEagles · May 2018

You know I'm really tired from my trip to Rome that I'm going to bed at half twelve on an election night.

rcs1000 · May 2018

I must admit, I'm surprised at some of the LD gains outside London. I'd expected them to make strides in Richmond and Kingston, and to shed a few elsewhere. It looks like their activist base outside Central Remainia (i.e. South West London) is holding up better than one would have thought.

another_richard · May 2018

I see 'Polish Pride' got 22 votes in a Broxbourne ward.

Floater · May 2018

LOL Labour bod now saying they made a mistake in setting expectations so high

Sean_F · May 2018

Labour are down 4 in Bolton. One more, and they lose control.

nunuone · May 2018

https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/992186535385681920

FrancisUrquhart · May 2018

Floater said:
LOL Labour bod now saying they made a mistake in setting expectations so high

Reverse, reverse, reverse, expectation management?

BigRich · May 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/992185757434564608

are you volentraly linking the state of the LibDems with fortunes of the remaine fortunes?

TheScreamingEagles · May 2018

According to Dawn Butler the reason Labour are doing so badly is that they are having to implement Tory austerity with huge budget cuts.

George Osborne is a genius.

nunuone · May 2018

another_richard said:
I see 'Polish Pride' got 22 votes in a Broxbourne ward.

..........my vote might make a difference where I live then since there are many more Polish people in my ward then in any ward in Broxbourne...

another_richard · May 2018

rcs1000 said:
I must admit, I'm surprised at some of the LD gains outside London. I'd expected them to make strides in Richmond and Kingston, and to shed a few elsewhere. It looks like their activist base outside Central Remainia (i.e. South West London) is holding up better than one would have thought.

NOTA

nunuone · May 2018

Sean_F said:
Labour are down 4 in Bolton. One more, and they lose control.

OMFG!

rcs1000 · May 2018

another_richard said:

show previous quotes
rcs1000 said:
I must admit, I'm surprised at some of the LD gains outside London. I'd expected them to make strides in Richmond and Kingston, and to shed a few elsewhere. It looks like their activist base outside Central Remainia (i.e. South West London) is holding up better than one would have thought.
NOTA

True, that.

Cookie · May 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
You know I'm really tired from my trip to Rome that I'm going to bed at half twelve on an election night.

Weren't you going to bed about 90 minutes ago?

GIN1138 · May 2018

Floater said:

show previous quotes
GIN1138 said:
Time for Theresa to consider a Summer election?
Great plan!!!!

Baldrick himself would approve

Thatch went for it after winning the 1987 locals

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_1987

Floater · May 2018

Sean_F said:
Labour are down 4 in Bolton. One more, and they lose control.

oh dear - what a shame

FrancisUrquhart · May 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
According to Dawn Butler the reason Labour are doing so badly is that they are having to implement Tory austerity with huge budget cuts.

George Osborne is a genius.

Dawn Butler, the morons moron.

BigRich · May 2018

rcs1000 said:
I must admit, I'm surprised at some of the LD gains outside London. I'd expected them to make strides in Richmond and Kingston, and to shed a few elsewhere. It looks like their activist base outside Central Remainia (i.e. South West London) is holding up better than one would have thought.

Are there that many LibDem Net gains? BBC is saying 6 net gains out of 250+ seats declared so far. I think it is more lickly mostly just churn, with some gains ofsetting losses elswhere, but some getting people more exited than others

AndyJS · May 2018

Swindon is a Tory hold. Changes: Lab+1, Con-1.

AndreaParma_82 · May 2018

3 Con gains in Cannock

The_Apocalypse · May 2018

Bolton is another leave area, doing a quick google. Curtice called it right earlier on.

oxfordsimon · May 2018

AndyJS said:
Swindon is a Tory hold. Changes: Lab+1, Con-1.

Now if only Corbyn hadn't visited 5 times...

AndyJS · May 2018

another_richard said:
I see 'Polish Pride' got 22 votes in a Broxbourne ward.

They've got quite a few candidates in London where they should do much better than that.

AndreaParma_82 · May 2018

Pilkington Park - Bury: Con gain from Labour

TheScreamingEagles · May 2018

Cookie said:

show previous quotes
TheScreamingEagles said:
You know I'm really tired from my trip to Rome that I'm going to bed at half twelve on an election night.
Weren't you going to bed about 90 minutes ago?

OGH asked me to do a thread with the early results.

RobD · May 2018

AndyJS said:
Swindon is a Tory hold. Changes: Lab+1, Con-1.

Lib Dems definitely gained one in Swindon.

Floater · May 2018

Snigger "Labour have to do some deep thinking"

Hardly a comment from a party expecting great things

FrancisUrquhart · May 2018

AndyJS said:

show previous quotes
another_richard said:
I see 'Polish Pride' got 22 votes in a Broxbourne ward.
They've got quite a few candidates in London where they should do much better than that.

The name sound a bit....erhhhh....like the BNP for Poles.

AndreaParma_82 · May 2018

Labour extremely lucky in Chorley...they are surviving in all their recounts.
The wards going to recounts are the Labour held ones though

Cookie · May 2018

The_Apocalypse said:
Bolton is another leave area, doing a quick google. Curtice called it right earlier on.

I think there are specific issues with the Labour Council in Bolton. This is a rare example of a local election being won and lost on local issues. Can't remember what they are, though.

tlg86 · May 2018

FrancisUrquhart said:

show previous quotes
AndyJS said:

another_richard said:
I see 'Polish Pride' got 22 votes in a Broxbourne ward.
They've got quite a few candidates in London where they should do much better than that.
The name sound a bit....erhhhh....like the BNP for Poles.

I was thinking it was gay Poles!

nunuone · May 2018

AndreaParma_82 said:
Pilkington Park - Bury: Con gain from Labour

Are tories really going to lose Trafford...I know it's not like the other parts of greater Manchester but still...

Floater · May 2018

RobD said:

show previous quotes
AndyJS said:
Swindon is a Tory hold. Changes: Lab+1, Con-1.
Lib Dems definitely gained one in Swindon.

Sky say not

rcs1000 · May 2018

BigRich said:

show previous quotes
rcs1000 said:
I must admit, I'm surprised at some of the LD gains outside London. I'd expected them to make strides in Richmond and Kingston, and to shed a few elsewhere. It looks like their activist base outside Central Remainia (i.e. South West London) is holding up better than one would have thought.
Are there that many LibDem Net gains? BBC is saying 6 net gains out of 250+ seats declared so far. I think it is more lickly mostly just churn, with some gains ofsetting losses elswhere, but some getting people more exited than others

I don't think the LDs have lost many (any?) seats yet.

Cookie · May 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

show previous quotes
Cookie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
You know I'm really tired from my trip to Rome that I'm going to bed at half twelve on an election night.
Weren't you going to bed about 90 minutes ago?
OGH asked me to do a thread with the early results.

Ah. Then I salute your dedication to the cause. I thought you just couldn't tear yourself away.

another_richard · May 2018

BTW the Andrew Teale site is a great reference for making results comparisons:

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/33/

RobD · May 2018

2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swindon_Borough_Council_election,_2014#Wroughton_&_Wichelstowe_Ward
2018: http://ww5.swindon.gov.uk/moderngov/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=19&RPID=5646241

How's that not a LD gain? I guess it could be notional LD due to boundary changes, although I can't see any mention of there being any.

AndyJS · May 2018

nunuone said:

show previous quotes
AndreaParma_82 said:
Pilkington Park - Bury: Con gain from Labour
Are tories really going to lose Trafford...I know it's not like the other parts of greater Manchester but still...

It is different, much more Remainy, middle-class and bourgeois than anywhere else.

The_Apocalypse · May 2018

Were Labour expected to make gains outside of London? The narrative prior to tonight seemed to centre on them doing well in London.

Cookie said:

show previous quotes
The_Apocalypse said:
Bolton is another leave area, doing a quick google. Curtice called it right earlier on.
I think there are specific issues with the Labour Council in Bolton. This is a rare example of a local election being won and lost on local issues. Can't remember what they are, though.

Ah, thanks for that info.

Floater · May 2018

Recounts in Harlow

another_richard · May 2018

AndyJS said:

show previous quotes
nunuone said:

AndreaParma_82 said:
Pilkington Park - Bury: Con gain from Labour
Are tories really going to lose Trafford...I know it's not like the other parts of greater Manchester but still...
It is different, much more Remainy, middle-class and bourgeois than anywhere else.

With some inner-city shithole as well.

But very little small town wwc where the Conservatives are doing well.

Cookie · May 2018

nunuone said:

show previous quotes
AndreaParma_82 said:
Pilkington Park - Bury: Con gain from Labour
Are tories really going to lose Trafford...I know it's not like the other parts of greater Manchester but still...

Parts of Bury South are quite heavily Jewish - not natural Corbyn territory.

I fear for Trafford.

rcs1000 · May 2018

RobD said:
2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swindon_Borough_Council_election,_2014#Wroughton_&_Wichelstowe_Ward
2018: http://ww5.swindon.gov.uk/moderngov/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=19&RPID=5646241

How's that not a LD gain? I guess it could be notional LD due to boundary changes?

LibDems need to be 25 votes ahead to get elected now. It's a new rule to equalise things after their abuse of bar charts.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2018

Sky or BBC for the coverage?

AndyJS · May 2018

Basildon: Con gain from NOC.

rcs1000 · May 2018

RobD said:
2014: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swindon_Borough_Council_election,_2014#Wroughton_&_Wichelstowe_Ward
2018: http://ww5.swindon.gov.uk/moderngov/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=19&RPID=5646241

How's that not a LD gain? I guess it could be notional LD due to boundary changes, although I can't see any mention of there being any.

It'd have to have a pretty massive boundary change to make it notionally LibDem.

AndyJS · May 2018

FrancisUrquhart said:
Sky or BBC for the coverage?

BBC seems better at the moment. Prof Thrasher doesn't seem to be on Sky tonight.

oxfordsimon · May 2018

FrancisUrquhart said:
Sky or BBC for the coverage?

Depends on whether you can cope with McDonnell and Wera on BBC...

FrancisUrquhart · May 2018

AndyJS said:

show previous quotes
FrancisUrquhart said:
Sky or BBC for the coverage?
BBC seems better at the moment. Prof Thrasher doesn't seem to be on Sky tonight.

No Thrasher = I won't be watching Sky then.

nunuone · May 2018

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/992190073964654593

FrancisUrquhart · May 2018

WTF, I turn Sky on and they have a load of emoji bollocks. I am not a 12 year old.

Pulpstar · May 2018

UKIP hang on to 4 councillors in Basildon

marke09 · May 2018

AndyJS said:

show previous quotes
FrancisUrquhart said:
Sky or BBC for the coverage?
BBC seems better at the moment. Prof Thrasher doesn't seem to be on Sky tonight.

yes he is he was on earlier

rcs1000 · May 2018

Pulpstar said:
UKIP hang on to 4 councillors in Basildon

Wow. That's a surprise. A much better night for UKIP than last year.

How's Henry Bolton's lot doing?

FrancisUrquhart · May 2018

Thrasher coming up on Sky shortly....

GIN1138 · May 2018

I miss Jeremy Vine pretending to be Clint Eastwood...

TheScreamingEagles · May 2018

AndyJS said:

show previous quotes
FrancisUrquhart said:
Sky or BBC for the coverage?
BBC seems better at the moment. Prof Thrasher doesn't seem to be on Sky tonight.

He was on Sky News earlier and they said he’ll be providing analysis throughout the night.

Floater · May 2018

Who is this guy on Sky then - oh Prof Thrasher

rcs1000 · May 2018

Conservatives gain Essex from NOC.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2018

GIN1138 said:
I miss Jeremy Vine pretending to be Clint Eastwood...

The emoji thing Sky is equally dumbed down nonsense.

AndreaParma_82 · May 2018

Bury

Elton: Labour hold (it was a Lab gain in 2014)

Ramsbottom: Lab gain from Con

Rhubarb · May 2018

The lack of terrible bbc cgi is disappointing.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2018

Rhubarb said:
The lack of terrible bbc cgi is disappointing.

I blame Tory cuts.

CarlottaVance · May 2018

https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/992190934518521859

brendan16 · May 2018

rcs1000 said:

show previous quotes
Pulpstar said:
UKIP hang on to 4 councillors in Basildon
Wow. That's a surprise. A much better night for UKIP than last year.

How's Henry Bolton's lot doing?

Basildon elects by thirds doesn't it. Those 5 UKIP councillors left weren't standing tonight - they got elected I assume in 2015 and 2016? UKIP lost the 10 seats they won in 2014.

AndreaParma_82 · May 2018

1 Lab gain from UKIP in Bolton

Pulpstar · May 2018

brendan16 said:

show previous quotes
rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:
UKIP hang on to 4 councillors in Basildon
Wow. That's a surprise. A much better night for UKIP than last year.

How's Henry Bolton's lot doing?
Basildon elects by thirds doesn't it. Those 5 UKIP councillors left weren't standing tonight - they got elected I assume in 2015? UKIP lost the 10 seats they won in 2014.

Ah yes sorry forgot that

Floater · May 2018

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/992190934518521859

Reports out of Barnet say the anti semitism issue has had an effect.

Cookie · May 2018

AndreaParma_82 said:
Bury

Elton: Labour hold (it was a Lab gain in 2014)

Ramsbottom: Lab gain from Con

For context, these are both pretty middle class areas. The WWC seem to be swinging in the opposite way to the middle classes.

GIN1138 · May 2018

Well that's me done. Enjoy the rest of the night PB.

Chameleon · May 2018

Conservative GAIN Kersal (Salford) from Labour.

Cookie · May 2018

Chameleon said:
Conservative GAIN Kersal (Salford) from Labour.

Also very Jewish (c 33%)

RobD · May 2018

GIN1138 said:
Well that's me done. Enjoy the rest of the night PB.

Not exciting enough for you?

brendan16 · May 2018

rcs1000 said:
Conservatives gain Essex from NOC.

Don't you mean Basildon. Essex county council has a huge Tory majority from the elections last year.

nunuone · May 2018

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/992192453569544193

Pulpstar · May 2018

McDonnell very rattled.

AndreaParma_82 · May 2018

LibDems are gaining seats in Liverpool

AndyJS · May 2018

nunuone said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/992192453569544193

Most Jewish ward outside London I think.

RobD · May 2018

AndreaParma_82 said:
LibDems are gaining seats in Liverpool

15 years ago they held two thirds of the seats.

AndyJS · May 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

show previous quotes
AndyJS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Sky or BBC for the coverage?
BBC seems better at the moment. Prof Thrasher doesn't seem to be on Sky tonight.
He was on Sky News earlier and they said he’ll be providing analysis throughout the night.

He must be taking a rest from the show at present.

AndreaParma_82 · May 2018

Radcliffe North - Bury: Con gain from Lab

The_Apocalypse · May 2018

From Curtice:

EU referendum effect?

Professor Sir John Curtice
Polling expert
So far the Conservative vote is only up by two points on average in council areas where less than 55% voted Leave in 2016. In contrast, the party's vote is up by 12 points in places where more than 55% voted Leave.

Meanwhile, the Labour vote is up by seven points on average in places where less than 55% voted Leave, while its vote is up by four points in places where more than 55% did so. It looks as though the shadow of the EU referendum is going to be apparent in these elections in the way that they were in last year's general election.

AndreaParma_82 · May 2018

Tameside - Ashton Hurst: Lab gain from Con

Preston - College: Lab gain from Con

rcs1000 · May 2018

brendan16 said:

show previous quotes
rcs1000 said:
Conservatives gain Essex from NOC.
Don't you mean Basildon. Essex county council has a huge Tory majority from the elections last year.

I was copying from the bbc live feed

oxfordsimon · May 2018

Turn out in Oxford is 38%

(And Bernie Sanders' brother has failed to get elected again as a Green candidate!)

AndyJS · May 2018

All parties are up except UKIP and Lab so far.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cz3nmp2eyxgt/england-local-elections-2018

PClipp · May 2018

RobD said:

show previous quotes
AndreaParma_82 said:
LibDems are gaining seats in Liverpool
15 years ago they held two thirds of the seats.

It's the start of the Lib Dem come-back.....

Cookie · May 2018

AndreaParma_82 said:
Radcliffe North - Bury: Con gain from Lab

Didn't we used to have a pb.com poster who was a Tory hopeful in Radcliffe - Stuart Penketh? Wasn't him, was it?

Howdy, Stranger!

Quick Links

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The very early results show the Tories doing well and being op

Comments