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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Windrush affair has an impact in the polls expect it to
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Windrush affair has an impact in the polls expect it to be seen most in the leader ratings not voting intention
Above is a chart based on Opinium’s net approval ratings for the PM since GE2017. I choose this pollster because it is one of just two that just about always every month publish the latest leader ratings which gives us enough data points for analysis. I wish other firms would follow this lead.
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Although I think people widely disapprove of how the government has handled the 'Windrush' affair, it also doesn't actually affect most people, nor do they think themselves at risk of being affected by it. The same as with Labour's antisemitism issues.
I comprehensively condemn the Windrush scandal but spreading nonsense like that is unacceptable
If you make a judgement based on polls, it seems to have done her no harm.
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/986999292069076994
I'm sure you can guess from which party the 27 who voted against came. I realise it's largely symbolic, but have a word with your lads, eh? They're *supposed* to have some influence with the UK gov.
I'm no hanger-and-flogger, but those sentences do seem crazily short relative to what the victims will have to go through.
Providing TMay can continue to display a reasonable degree of confidence and competence, whilst Labour try to do the opposite, then I expect this trend will continue and may result in a grudging net favourable rating over time.
Of course, Brexit has been fairly quiet of late (their Lordships' truculence last night notwithstanding) and this won't continue.
' London’s skyline is to be transformed over the next decade with a record 510 tall towers, more than 20 storeys high, planned or under construction. The total is up from 455 towers in the pipeline in 2016, according to research from the industry forum New London Architecture (NLA) and real estate consultancy GL Hearn.
Construction has started on 115 towers, also a record. Over the past two years, work started on more projects than in the preceding five years combined. '
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/18/londons-skyline-soars-with-record-510-tall-buildings-in-pipeline
If you buy food at a shop and eat it at home that counts as retail sales.
But if you eat at a restaurant that doesn't count as retail sales but as general service sector activity.
In which case the shift towards eating out during the last couple of decades should have had a dampening effect on retail sales growth.
Is that right ?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2018/apr/18/de-la-rue-chief-chose-wrong-card-to-play-passport-contract-battle
' It is equally odd that Labour shadow ministers, from Keir Starmer to Diane Abbott, thought it wise to back a doomed campaign to impose extra costs on the public purse for the sake of symbolism. There are interventionist industrial causes that are worth backing. This was not one. '
She should have left it to the leaders
I don’t know where it will end up. I just hope enough crossbenchers see enough sense before it’s too late, as the choice isn’t between Brexit and no Brexit but an orderly one and a chaotic one.
Sorry.
The end deal hopefully will be a compromise
I will now have to go and scour the ONS appendices and household spending surveys.
Sigh.
If it were me, I’d skip a generation and argue for William to be the Head of the Commonwealth and Harry as the Deputy. Sort of Chairman and CEO.
That would stabilise its leadership for decades, and would work well.
My sympathy with them is zero.
(And I think they might need a new Chief Executive. Sadly, I'm busy.)
A demonstration why this is an amazing forum
So no.
Also, the story only lasted one or two news cycles, and there have been too many other things going on this week - like CHOG, the hot weather, or Dale Winton.
I'd swing the ban hammer, but I'm currently wading through a 312 page ONS PDF on how they collect retail sales data.
The big irony of course is that Corbyn's left-wing economic programme has a lot more to offer to the Middle England "what's in it for me?" voters than the "moderate" Labour manifestos of 2010 or 2015, because, whether one agrees with Corbynomics or not, the changes he's proposing are so broad and sweeping that a huge group of people think they personally stand to benefit from them.
https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/987022402168160256?s=21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smUtq0YE1ZE
What is important is the quality of whatever home you have and who your neighbours are.
The Markit surveys have shown a very sharp slowdown in global growth in Q1.
The biggest slowdown - albeit from very high levels in Q4 - was in the Eurozone.
Which is something I think is bad for the UK economy.
Although both are, in the end, classed as services. Retail sales are a subset of the services index.
Personally, I’d feel imprisoned if I had to live somewhere with no garden.
Were I on my own, I’d just live in one of those tarted up garden sheds/orangeries with a shower room in an enormous garden ...... and stuff the house.
Edited: “tarted up” rather than “tarted”, which might give the wrong impression.......
https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/747418086031097856
A couple of highlights:
' The UK economy is heading for recession. Private sector spending will slow, and probably decline, provoking recession in the comming quarters.
Potential output has been cut at a stroke. While the outlook further ahead is for potentially stronger exports of some goods, the outlook for financial services now looks dreadful. Layoffs in the UK will start in weeks. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43831159
Perish the thought!
(Hope business is going OK.)
But this forecast is just a negative forecast.
Got it.
Or rather the 'experts' who didn't predict a recession in 2008 but who did predict a recession in 2016 don't know as much as they think they do.
I especially like the layoffs in UK financial services "will start in weeks" - they couldn't even predict their own industry competently.
I can assure you it has nothing to do with Brexit.
But the prices are nearer to standard London prices than Yorkshire prices.
The rest of the street was perfectly pleasant and we probably wouldn't have bothered to move to a bigger, nicer house if our former (semi attached) neighbours weren't such utter shits.
The justice system really disgraced itself there.
It seems impossible to reform without mass sackings and that will not happen.
Labours problem is that the public see them, and Corbyn in particular, as wanting open borders and this is starkly against the mood of the nation that wants tough action against illegal immigration which this policy was designed to address
Food was good too; might not always have made the grade in MasterChef or something like that ..... not fancy enough ........ but it was good food, very well cooked and plenty of it. Six of us in the group, two courses each; bill was under £100, including some, but not much, beer and wine.