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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Into the political void opened between Brexit Tories and Corby

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  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Pulpstar said:

    The council tax soars and the potholes are worse than ever
    The extra council tax is going on supporting vulnerable and disabled kids and adults with physical and learning disabilities who cost a packet and of course as the dementia tax was dropped providing free home helps to people who own £2 million houses in London.

    Maybe not as important to you as potholes - until it's you or a family member that needs the care - but it just means there is little money for potholes.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    MJW said:

    The big problem is that the two political reasons for either a new party or a Lib Dem revival inspired by a desire for a new moderate force a - Brexit and the malevolent idiocy of Corbyn are also, in the short term, pushing people to stay in Labour, or at least not desert it in sufficient numbers to mark a shift. Brexit is an issue in the here and now. A new party/revived LDs would be too far from power to have a real impact in either softening or blocking Brexit in time. It took the LDs 20 years from the SDP merger to build up the sufficient political capital and seats to enter government, optimistically it could take two elections - one to obtain a national profile and build support, and another to turn that into a seat winning strategy, before the party could realistically claim to be a real player and argue that it, rather than Labour, deserved the votes of social liberals. So, if you think Brexit is a national calamity, it makes sense until March 2019 to stay put. Similarly, those within Labour who are utterly ashamed of the festering sewer Corbyn and his backers are turning it into, feel they have a duty not to voluntarily hand the keys to the asylum over to the lunatics.

    Of course, neither of these situations can hold. Brexit will happen and will be judged - and Labour will have been complicit in it (and won't be ale to take credit if it is a success). A new liberal force will be necessary to either rejoin or enter into the EEA or EFTA. By that time Corbyn will also have completed his transformation of Labour so those who don't bend the knee to the fanatics aren't welcome, or failed. Labour will either have come to its senses or beyond repair.

    So I think a new party is a real possibility - just not on the timescale put forward by most.

    Yes that sounds reasonable, though who knows what will actually happen. The bet I'd like to make, but for which there is no market, is that the person who leads his party into a landslide victory in the 2040s is currently in the Labour Party. Which party he will win with is still unpredictable.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,496
    viewcode said:

    The *minute* you spot a party that advocates a government spending less than it takes, you tell me about it. Because none of the major parties want to do that.

    True but how much of the excess spending is to fund vanity projects such as HS2 or to allow government ministers to go posturing around the world.

    As an example spending 0.7% of GDP on Overseas Aid effectively obliges the UK to run a balance of payments surplus if it is to live within its means.

    Not that it does that of course.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    And so do I
    And so do I as well.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,496
    viewcode said:

    Um hold on. Isn't that the (economic) prospectus of the Nazi party?

    Well they were electorally successful and Hitler was a veggie who loved animals :wink:
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,189

    What a cynic you are. I can't actually fault your logic or facts. But you are still cynical.
    Unfortunately true.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    The council tax soars and the potholes are worse than ever
    And central government avoids the blame while taking away billions.

    Local government financing: the biggest untold political scandal of our time?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,462

    Every councillor elected in Barking in 2010 was Labour:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barking_and_Dagenham_London_Borough_Council_election,_2010

    And in 2006 the BNP only stood in 7 of the 17 wards:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barking_and_Dagenham_London_Borough_Council_election,_2006

    Its also a borough where demographic change is happening rapidly.

    Though I expect that there will be candidates of other parties in each ward.
    In the absence of UKIP, the Tories ought to be able to win seats in Dagenham. They polled strongly at the general election.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,189

    True but how much of the excess spending is to fund vanity projects such as HS2 or to allow government ministers to go posturing around the world.

    As an example spending 0.7% of GDP on Overseas Aid effectively obliges the UK to run a balance of payments surplus if it is to live within its means.

    Not that it does that of course.
    Indeed
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,496
    Sean_F said:

    In the absence of UKIP, the Tories ought to be able to win seats in Dagenham. They polled strongly at the general election.
    But the Dagenham constituency includes some Havering wards.

    The Conservatives were closer to winning the constituency in 2010 than in 2014 and on the same day in 2010 they couldn't elect a single councillor in the Dagenham wards:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagenham_and_Rainham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,051
    edited April 2018
    brendan16 said:

    The extra council tax is going on supporting vulnerable and disabled kids and adults with physical and learning disabilities who cost a packet and of course as the dementia tax was dropped providing free home helps to people who own £2 million houses in London.

    Maybe not as important to you as potholes - until it's you or a family member that needs the care - but it just means there is little money for potholes.
    Some people are easily taken in.
    Money wasted by councils is huge, incompetent bunch.
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    There's no big gap in the center, there's just a noisy group of people realising that political parties in our system are coalitions and sometimes you don't get to lead.

    Third parties succeed by being distinctive, not by trying to be the golden mean.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited April 2018

    And central government avoids the blame while taking away billions.

    Local government financing: the biggest untold political scandal of our time?
    The scandal is that most people don’t realise how much money councils get from central government.

    They should be responsible - and accountable - for raising much more of their own funding.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,454
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: will write the pre-qualifying article presently. Got a few early thoughts.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Sandpit said:

    The scandal is that most people don’t realise how much money councils get from central government.

    They should be responsible - and accountable - for raising much more of their own funding.
    That is government policy. Councils are far more financially independent than they were before 2010.
  • GreenHeronGreenHeron Posts: 148

    You have to stand for something, not just against something. No one in the centre is clear what they are standing for.

    FF43 said:

    Liberalism is an idea including concepts such as individual freedoms and responsibilities, civil rights, democracy, objective regulation, the rule of law, international cooperation, respect for others, personal aspiration and moral unity. It's an idea that has been under attack in recent years because the total wars of the twentieth century are no longer seen as awful counter examples and because the West of the post-War liberal ascendancy is seen as weak against new threats and powerful autocracies. Liberalism is associated with a capitalist system that rewarded parasitic bankers but saddled ordinary people with huge debts and with a globalisation that left people and communities behind. New movements such as Trump and Brexit pay lip service to some liberal ideas while intending to subvert them.

    There's a case to be made for liberalism, but the case does actually need to be made by explaining why these principles are valuable.

    Agree with both of these points entirely. I have no knowledge of the inner workings of the LDs so this may be very unfair, but from the outside looking in, it seems to me that uncle Vince is an old Labourite who would be quite content to see Corbyn become PM so long as he kept his own seat. Therefore, they provide a tepid challenge to labour in the cities, whilst making only modest headway against the tories in the shires, where May is relatively popular.

    I think the fact that Brexit is labelled right wing (not without reason) skews the analysis of the conservatives, whose other policies have not shifted rightwards at all, so the gap in the centre may not be as wide as being made out. However, there is certainly a big void in what once were traditional liberal areas - civil liberties, freedom of speech, limiting the power of big business by not restricting small businesses from being able to compete. Both major parties' record in these regards is atrocious, as free speech and civil liberties are eroded by the day and big business becomes ever more powerful.

    I do not expect it to happen but a Liberal party that sought to address these issues would certainly get my vote.

  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,391
    Thank you, @david_herdson ; a very interesting article.

    Good afternoon, everybody.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Sandpit said:

    The scandal is that most people don’t realise how much money councils get from central government.

    They should be responsible - and accountable - for raising much more of their own funding.
    Local councils in England have seen an average cut to their budgets of almost 26% since 2010, taking inflation into account, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

    The part of that that comes from central government—mainly through grants—has fallen by 38% over the same period, closer to Mr Corbyn’s figure. The final reduction is 26% because they also raise money locally, which didn’t fall by as much.

    Source: https://fullfact.org/economy/local-authorities-budgets/


    The LGA said (Dec 2017) councils, which have already experienced unprecedented funding cuts since 2010, will see their central government funding further cut by £2.7 billion between 2018/19 and 2019/20 – a 54 per cent reduction. Almost half of all councils - 168 districts, counties, unitaries and London boroughs – will no longer receive a penny of this government funding by 2019/20. Instead, they will actually have to give some extra business rates income back to the Government.

    The pace of these funding cuts was intended by government to coincide with local government as a whole keeping 100 per cent of its business rates income by 2019/20. These plans will no longer be in place by the end of the decade and remain in doubt after the Local Government Finance Bill, which was passing through parliament before the General Election, was not reintroduced in the Queen’s Speech.

    Source: https://www.local.gov.uk/about/news/council-funding-be-further-cut-half-over-next-two-years-lga-warns

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,454
    edited April 2018
    F1: not a tip, but Raikkonen's currently 4 on Ladbrokes (market just went up) to win. He was 20 before the weekend began.

    Edited extra bit: good afternoon, Miss JGP.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    RoyalBlue said:

    That is government policy. Councils are far more financially independent than they were before 2010.
    Indeed so. I think all levels of government need to be much more accountable, those who love to talk about how much money they spend should also be those responsible for raising that money.

    Traditionally there’s been huge waste in local government, hopefully more accountability for raising taxes should see councillors scrutinise more carefully where it is spent.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,809
    One wonders how much American were leant on by the Trump administration to buy Boeing rather than Airbus.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,537
    Sandpit said:

    Indeed so. I think all levels of government need to be much more accountable, those who love to talk about how much money they spend should also be those responsible for raising that money.

    Traditionally there’s been huge waste in local government, hopefully more accountability for raising taxes should see councillors scrutinise more carefully where it is spent.
    Some at least of the problem in accountability is the electoral system. Three member wards, with members elected every three years by FPTP leads to one party control and less accountablity.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,426
    Pulpstar said:

    The council tax soars and the potholes are worse than ever
    Increasing amounts of council tax is spent on fewer and fewer people, adult social care for example - so with general increased pressure on those key and very expensive areas and reduced government grants, a lot of other council spending is cut to the bone. Councils have had their budgets severely reduced, and that most have managed it quite well shows that there was certainly scope to trim the fat, but even when you cut away a lot of non-essential stuff, there are problems occurring. Personally, I consider the problem is local councils get told they either have to stop doing some things, which they don't want to do, or do things differently, to save money, but what happens in my experience is that you don't stop as much as you say you will, and don't save as much as you think by doing things differently because it is hard, and so instead you start doing things badly because you cannot cope.

    On austerity generally, tougher choices are needed to actually get the deficit down in a speedier fashion, and there is simply no public or political appetite for that anymore, even before Brexit minor tory rebellions were showing it was not going to happen even on the revised timescales, because the cost was seen as too high.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,454
    Betting Post
    F1: backed Raikkonen for pole at 4.33 (each way, third the odds top 2). Still writing the pre-qualifying ramble which will include reasoning etc.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Betting Post
    F1: backed Raikkonen for pole at 4.33 (each way, third the odds top 2). Still writing the pre-qualifying ramble which will include reasoning etc.

    Is that for pole position, or to win the qualifying session?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,454
    edited April 2018
    Mr. Sandpit, I think the term is 'fastest qualifier'. Obviously Hamilton isn't going to be on pole.

    Edited extra bit: off-chance Vettel might have a penalty if they need to fiddle with his Ferrari after the engine problems in third practice. Grid penalties also mean said drivers will alter set-up to emphasise overtaking possibilities rather than going for pure pace.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,896
    kle4 said:

    Increasing amounts of council tax is spent on fewer and fewer people, adult social care for example - so with general increased pressure on those key and very expensive areas and reduced government grants, a lot of other council spending is cut to the bone. Councils have had their budgets severely reduced, and that most have managed it quite well shows that there was certainly scope to trim the fat, but even when you cut away a lot of non-essential stuff, there are problems occurring. Personally, I consider the problem is local councils get told they either have to stop doing some things, which they don't want to do, or do things differently, to save money, but what happens in my experience is that you don't stop as much as you say you will, and don't save as much as you think by doing things differently because it is hard, and so instead you start doing things badly because you cannot cope.

    On austerity generally, tougher choices are needed to actually get the deficit down in a speedier fashion, and there is simply no public or political appetite for that anymore, even before Brexit minor tory rebellions were showing it was not going to happen even on the revised timescales, because the cost was seen as too high.
    Osborne had a target of getting spending as a percentage of GDP down to 35% ie the same as the tax take as a percentage of GDP.

    Hammond has now eased back on austerity with public sector pay rises etc and watered down that target if not scrapped it
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Mr. Sandpit, I think the term is 'fastest qualifier'. Obviously Hamilton isn't going to be on pole.

    Edited extra bit: off-chance Vettel might have a penalty if they need to fiddle with his Ferrari after the engine problems in third practice. Grid penalties also mean said drivers will alter set-up to emphasise overtaking possibilities rather than going for pure pace.

    Ah okay. That would be very good value if it were to start on pole.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,454
    edited April 2018
    F1: pre-qualifying ramble:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/bahrain-pre-qualifying-2018.html

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Sandpit, I think it's still worth backing, but you're right it'd be better if it were to start on pole.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    O/T

    Why does Paddy Power think that the next Irish election will be this year?
  • We already have a centrist party - the Conservative party. It's jettisoned virtually every right-wing policy except Brexit. What these people that say they want a centrist party really want is an extreme pro-EU, pro-immigration party.

    There is a vacuum, but it's to the right of the conservatives.
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