politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the Universal Ballot Database – A map which lets y

On PB we always like to hear about innovative means of getting election and other data. Well let me alert you to Lawrence Ware’s grandly titled Universal Ballot Database which enables the user to zoom in, see the mapping of every individual ward n England and Wales and the results.
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You can click on the map above to go to it by the way...0
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Will be useful for keeping tabs of the local election results as they come in in May0
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Election anoraks can spend hours with this
Where can one find these people ?0 -
What is the penis in the Bristol Channel?0
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Ooh I'll be living in a Tory ward in 2 days time..0
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I've now put a link in the body text as well.TheWhiteRabbit said:You can click on the map above to go to it by the way...
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"The map below shows the highest placed candidate in the last stored local election held for the ward."
Looks like it's from the main elections rather than by-elections - based on one ward I know of.0 -
Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=210 -
As did most polls before the actual referendum....AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=210 -
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=210 -
City of Bristol UA includes some of the islands in the Bristol Channel and the boundary of the district as shown on OS maps is drawn out to encompass them. I guess it follows that they are officially in one of Bristol's wards, although I think they're uninhabited.MarqueeMark said:What is the penis in the Bristol Channel?
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Avonmouth.MarqueeMark said:What is the penis in the Bristol Channel?
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Going to have a look at my facebook data, all 3.5 GB apparently..0
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MarqueeMark said:
What is the penis in the Bristol Channel?
It's the boundary of Bristol City Council – takes in a large sandbar in the Bristol Channel which is English territory. Almost touches the island of Flat Holm*, which is entirely Welsh territory albeit with its waters to the South West entirely in England.
*Wales' most southerly point.0 -
As Mr Glenn would say....The trend is your friend a 3 point narrowing to a 7 point gap.....tick tock.....AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=210 -
Is that why the lead has dropped 3 points?Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=210 -
MOE. The overall trend is for Remain being ahead.felix said:
Is that why the lead has dropped 3 points?Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
Very interesting indeed.0 -
MarqueeMark said:
What is the penis in the Bristol Channel?
Jacob Rees-Mogg?0 -
"The Independent also reported updated figures for BMG’s EU Referendum tracker; reporting top-line figures of 53% for Remain, and 47% for Leave if a referendum were held today. The results show that 95% of Leave voters and 93% of Remain voters say that they have not changed their mind since the EU referendum."Anazina said:
MOE. The overall trend is for Remain being ahead.felix said:
Is that why the lead has dropped 3 points?Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
Very interesting indeed.
53/47 is of course a squeeze - it's the other number that do not point to any meaningful shift at all.0 -
Lol - how's life on planet denial ?Anazina said:
MOE. The overall trend is for Remain being ahead.felix said:
Is that why the lead has dropped 3 points?Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
Very interesting indeed.0 -
The results show that 95% of Leave voters and 93% of Remain voters say that they have not changed their mind since the EU referendum. Nearly all the top-line change since 2016 has come from those who did not vote at the referendum (73% Remain, 27% Leave).Anazina said:
MOE. The overall trend is for Remain being ahead.felix said:
Is that why the lead has dropped 3 points?Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
Very interesting indeed.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmg-poll-independent-public-say-will-short-term-pain-long-term-gain/0 -
The detail of the poll is noteworthy. No one really is changing their minds. The change is among those who didn’t vote in 2016, who are decisively breaking for Remain. This is the short term protection and the long term risk for Leave.
But for some reason Leavers aren’t beginning to think about how to win new converts.0 -
Winning the battle, losing the war.AlastairMeeks said:The detail of the poll is noteworthy. No one really is changing their minds. The change is among those who didn’t vote in 2016, who are decisively breaking for Remain. This is the short term protection and the long term risk for Leave.
But for some reason Leavers aren’t beginning to think about how to win new converts.
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The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.0 -
Very interesting indeed. Youngsters and DNVs breaking heavily for Remain. Very bad news long term for turncoat neobrexiteers like yourself.CarlottaVance said:
The results show that 95% of Leave voters and 93% of Remain voters say that they have not changed their mind since the EU referendum. Nearly all the top-line change since 2016 has come from those who did not vote at the referendum (73% Remain, 27% Leave).Anazina said:
MOE. The overall trend is for Remain being ahead.felix said:
Is that why the lead has dropped 3 points?Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
Very interesting indeed.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmg-poll-independent-public-say-will-short-term-pain-long-term-gain/0 -
I wouldn't know, you tell me.felix said:
Lol - how's life on planet denial ?Anazina said:
MOE. The overall trend is for Remain being ahead.felix said:
Is that why the lead has dropped 3 points?Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
Very interesting indeed.0 -
fpt
Leavers used extremely unpleasant xenophobic lies to achieve their aim.
Fine, the end justifies the means so what's all this complaining about.
Except, there was a self-fulfilling prophecy element about the process. Those posters became emblematic and contributed in some way to the debate such that people endorsed, whether while holding their nose or not, a UK that didn't just want to take back control (weasel words used as an excuse in particular by those on here) but a UK that was actively xenophobic and a place which endorsed those posters and the ideology behind them.
Leavers on here were happy, together with reclaiming their blessed sovereignty (we were always sovereign, of course) to contribute to the ideology, the perception, and the expectation that the UK is xenophobic and dislikes foreigners.
It is in that light that one is entitled to ask: was it worth it?0 -
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.0 -
A minor edit for accuracy.AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems delusional.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.0 -
Condescension & name calling!Anazina said:
Very bad news long term for turncoat neobrexiteers like yourself.CarlottaVance said:
The results show that 95% of Leave voters and 93% of Remain voters say that they have not changed their mind since the EU referendum. Nearly all the top-line change since 2016 has come from those who did not vote at the referendum (73% Remain, 27% Leave).Anazina said:
MOE. The overall trend is for Remain being ahead.felix said:
Is that why the lead has dropped 3 points?Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
Very interesting indeed.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmg-poll-independent-public-say-will-short-term-pain-long-term-gain/
That's the way to do it!
Worked so well last time.....
At least some of us learn as we progress through life....0 -
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.
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Yes, Remain is consistently ahead. As you say, no shift.TheWhiteRabbit said:
"The Independent also reported updated figures for BMG’s EU Referendum tracker; reporting top-line figures of 53% for Remain, and 47% for Leave if a referendum were held today. The results show that 95% of Leave voters and 93% of Remain voters say that they have not changed their mind since the EU referendum."Anazina said:
MOE. The overall trend is for Remain being ahead.felix said:
Is that why the lead has dropped 3 points?Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
Very interesting indeed.
53/47 is of course a squeeze - it's the other number that do not point to any meaningful shift at all.0 -
Yes you had clearly learned the last time you posted such hypocritical sanctimonious garbage when in your very next post you referred to committed pro-Europeans as "Remainiacs".CarlottaVance said:
Condescension & name calling!Anazina said:
Very bad news long term for turncoat neobrexiteers like yourself.CarlottaVance said:
The results show that 95% of Leave voters and 93% of Remain voters say that they have not changed their mind since the EU referendum. Nearly all the top-line change since 2016 has come from those who did not vote at the referendum (73% Remain, 27% Leave).Anazina said:
MOE. The overall trend is for Remain being ahead.felix said:
Is that why the lead has dropped 3 points?Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
Very interesting indeed.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmg-poll-independent-public-say-will-short-term-pain-long-term-gain/
That's the way to do it!
Worked so well last time.....
At least some of us learn as we progress through life....
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If there is a "next time" it will not be Leave vs Remain but Rejoin or Don't rejoin after the 2025 election. And rejoin will require much higher membership fees and likely entry into Schengen and the Euro.0
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Any polling on support for "xenophobic lies" ?
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If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time. Right now Leavers are doing their best to ensure that.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.0 -
But, that works both ways: if I'm right, and you're wrong, you'll end up with serious egg on your face; any reaccession to the EU will be off the agenda for decades.Anazina said:
A minor edit for accuracy.AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems delusional.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.
When the numbers are that tight both sides need to appeal to the other.
Telling those you disagree with to go f*ck themselves might not be the best way to win them over.0 -
"A" referendum, or "The" referendum?TheWhiteRabbit said:
"The Independent also reported updated figures for BMG’s EU Referendum tracker; reporting top-line figures of 53% for Remain, and 47% for Leave if a referendum were held today. The results show that 95% of Leave voters and 93% of Remain voters say that they have not changed their mind since the EU referendum."Anazina said:
MOE. The overall trend is for Remain being ahead.felix said:
Is that why the lead has dropped 3 points?Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
Very interesting indeed.
53/47 is of course a squeeze - it's the other number that do not point to any meaningful shift at all.0 -
Because they don't need to win converts. Remain ceases to exist as an option on 29/3/2019 and realistically ceases to be an option long before then.AlastairMeeks said:The detail of the poll is noteworthy. No one really is changing their minds. The change is among those who didn’t vote in 2016, who are decisively breaking for Remain. This is the short term protection and the long term risk for Leave.
But for some reason Leavers aren’t beginning to think about how to win new converts.
After that rejoin needs to win enough converts to overtake inertia.0 -
A big assumption, possibly accurate, possibly not. But conjecture.Pulpstar said:
A good point, the question changes after March 2019.Elliot said:If there is a "next time" it will not be Leave vs Remain but Rejoin or Don't rejoin after the 2025 election. And rejoin will require much higher membership fees and likely entry into Schengen and the Euro.
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Didn't the poll show that the public believe in decreasing numbers that Brexit is a mistake?AlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.0 -
I would explain MOE to you but I suspect the zeal of your conversion has eclipsed any remaining numeracy.CarlottaVance said:
Didn't the poll show that the public believe in decreasing numbers that Brexit is a mistake?AlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.0 -
Tipped up by Meeks on Betfair, and currently odds on. So likely.Anazina said:
A big assumption, possibly accurate, possibly not. But conjecture.Pulpstar said:
A good point, the question changes after March 2019.Elliot said:If there is a "next time" it will not be Leave vs Remain but Rejoin or Don't rejoin after the 2025 election. And rejoin will require much higher membership fees and likely entry into Schengen and the Euro.
0 -
Remain would need to be polling 65% + to change the government approach.
Or some sort of suicide mission by Labour to deny the result in the happy knowledge they would get smashed at the polls in 2022 for the u-turn.0 -
Are you planning on converting to 'democracy' any time soon?Anazina said:
I would explain MOE to you but I suspect the zeal of your conversion has eclipsed any remaining numeracy.CarlottaVance said:
Didn't the poll show that the public believe in decreasing numbers that Brexit is a mistake?AlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.
Oh, and by the way:
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-there-should-be-a-second-referendum-on-whether-britain-remains-a-member-of-the-european-union-or-not/?removed0 -
Taken on an 18 month time horizon, no. By now Leave should be far ahead. But it has made next to no converts from Remain and is decisively losing in the pool of new available voters. This should seriously worry thoughtful Leavers. But that appears to be an oxymoron.CarlottaVance said:
Didn't the poll show that the public believe in decreasing numbers that Brexit is a mistake?AlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.
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I think you win the prize for today's 'straw man'.AlastairMeeks said:
By now Leave should be far ahead.CarlottaVance said:
Didn't the poll show that the public believe in decreasing numbers that Brexit is a mistake?AlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.
I'd have thought it would be Remainers in search of a second referendum that should be seriously worried....
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-there-should-be-a-second-referendum-on-whether-britain-remains-a-member-of-the-european-union-or-not/?removed0 -
Totally O/t but has anyone seen this on the BBC
'A bride and groom's bid to surprise guests by having a owl deliver their wedding rings did not go quite to plan.
The bird was spooked by one of the seated best men pointing at it - and dived towards the individual.’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-43553909/bride-and-groom-s-owl-plans-are-a-hoot
Which is of course what happens when you have free owls.0 -
Even with almost no minds changed, two years of deaths, youngsters joining the electoral roll and immigrants gaining citizenship will surely have had an impact on the margin.AlastairMeeks said:The detail of the poll is noteworthy. No one really is changing their minds. The change is among those who didn’t vote in 2016, who are decisively breaking for Remain. This is the short term protection and the long term risk for Leave.
But for some reason Leavers aren’t beginning to think about how to win new converts.
In my own family my devout Brexiteer step-grandmother sadly died last year, whilst a couple of teenagers not old enough to vote in 2016 have now joined the legions of those likely to oppose Brexit at the ballot box. A story likely replicated in millions of families countrywide.0 -
tomorrow never comesAlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time. Right now Leavers are doing their best to ensure that.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.0 -
Roses are red
Violets are blue.
If Corbyn wins
There'll be no vote on the EU.0 -
Tomorrow belongs to me.ReggieCide said:
tomorrow never comesAlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time. Right now Leavers are doing their best to ensure that.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.
You’re all assuming a new referendum on rejoining.
A party or parties that had a manifesto commitment to take us back win a majority in Parliament could do it.
Might happen in 2027, we’ll have been out for six years and if Brexit turns out to be an (economic) mistake, and that should be long enough for the public to make up their mind on whether Brexit was a path to the sunlit uplands or not.0 -
It is normal for controversial policies to gain in popularity after being adopted.CarlottaVance said:
I think you win the prize for today's 'straw man'.AlastairMeeks said:
By now Leave should be far ahead.CarlottaVance said:
Didn't the poll show that the public believe in decreasing numbers that Brexit is a mistake?AlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.
I'd have thought it would be Remainers in search of a second referendum that should be seriously worried....
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-there-should-be-a-second-referendum-on-whether-britain-remains-a-member-of-the-european-union-or-not/?removed0 -
People come up to me and say "Oh, what a lovely baby..", then they get a closer look...
Then he wakes up and starts screaming "WAAAAH! XENEPHOBIC LIES! XENEPHOBIC LIES! WAAAAAAH!"
And they all change the way they voted.0 -
A rough rule of thumb of mine is that the more elaborate and over the top the wedding the less likely the marriage is to endure. There are relationships where you feel that the people concerned are playing at being husband and wife rather than really having a solid relationship.OldKingCole said:Totally O/t but has anyone seen this on the BBC
'A bride and groom's bid to surprise guests by having a owl deliver their wedding rings did not go quite to plan.
The bird was spooked by one of the seated best men pointing at it - and dived towards the individual.’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-43553909/bride-and-groom-s-owl-plans-are-a-hoot
Which is of course what happens when you have free owls.0 -
As a former player and now commentator once observed, "you cannot be serious". 2027!!!???TheScreamingEagles said:
Tomorrow belongs to me.ReggieCide said:
tomorrow never comesAlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time. Right now Leavers are doing their best to ensure that.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.
You’re all assuming a new referendum on rejoining.
A party or parties that had a manifesto commitment to take us back win a majority in Parliament could do it.
Might happen in 2027, we’ll have been out for six years and if Brexit turns out to be an (economic) mistake, and that should be long enough for the public to make up their mind on whether Brexit was a path to the sunlit uplands or not.0 -
Personally, I'm really disappointed that Meeks seems to have forgotten that we Leavers murdered Jo Cox and beat up a load of foreigners in order to win the referendum.0
-
But will those ignorant bastards who voted Leave know what XENEPHOBIC means? Best to use language they would understand ....RACIST! That's the way to do it!JonnyJimmy said:People come up to me and say "Oh, what a lovely baby..", then they get a closer look...
Then he wakes up and starts screaming "WAAAAH! XENEPHOBIC LIES! XENEPHOBIC LIES! WAAAAAAH!"
And they all change the way they voted.0 -
The overall trend is for Britain to leave the EU a year on Thursday.Anazina said:
MOE. The overall trend is for Remain being ahead.felix said:
Is that why the lead has dropped 3 points?Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
Very interesting indeed.0 -
All of the difficulties of Leave are currently apparent, and none of the benefits have yet been realised, so I'm not surprised. Some people will naturally worry.CarlottaVance said:
I think you win the prize for today's 'straw man'.AlastairMeeks said:
By now Leave should be far ahead.CarlottaVance said:AlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.
I'd have thought it would be Remainers in search of a second referendum that should be seriously worried....
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-there-should-be-a-second-referendum-on-whether-britain-remains-a-member-of-the-european-union-or-not/?removed
That said, I did underestimate how vitriolic the aftermath would be and I think some of the Government's PR from c. July 2016 to c. May 2017 was a mistake, which further soiled the bed, so that's a lesson too.
But, there are no "certainties" about the UK for the next few decades, or GE2022, or even the next few months.0 -
At least in this case the bride was saying something about laughing so much it hurt, and how everyone was all laughing about afterwards.Cyclefree said:
A rough rule of thumb of mine is that the more elaborate and over the top the wedding the less likely the marriage is to endure. There are relationships where you feel that the people concerned are playing at being husband and wife rather than really having a solid relationship.OldKingCole said:Totally O/t but has anyone seen this on the BBC
'A bride and groom's bid to surprise guests by having a owl deliver their wedding rings did not go quite to plan.
The bird was spooked by one of the seated best men pointing at it - and dived towards the individual.’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-43553909/bride-and-groom-s-owl-plans-are-a-hoot
Which is of course what happens when you have free owls.0 -
Whoever would have thought that Theresa May in two short weeks would become the de facto leader of the West facing down Putin0
-
. This should seriously worry thoughtful Leavers. But that appears to be an oxymoron.
Mr Meeks. I really have to react to your constant sneering of people who are pro-Brexit as being either xenophobic or stupid. Your blind spot on this is unbelievable and for someone who I have often admired on this site for years I am staggered that you don't see that your intolerance and generalisation is no different from those you seem to despise (stupid xenophobes).
I am pro-Brexit and I am neither a xenophobe or stupid. I lived and worked in Switzerland and France for many years and am pretty much fluent in French, I have worked my whole career with international clients and have had a great relationship with the majority spending large amounts of time with them in both a business and social capacity. I still talk every day to people of many nationalities for business and am able to adapt to the cultural differences and appreciate the similarities. I was educated with my peers of many nationalities and to this day count them as friends. I was married to a Slovak lady in my twenties, my last partner was French and my current is Portuguese. I hope that in some way this allows me to disabuse the notion of me being xenophobic by your high standards.
I was educated at a school regarded to be one of the hardest to enter academically and went on to a University consistently ranked in the global top ten. I ran a private bank at 27 and am sought out to solve complicated problems for global individuals. I hope that this allows me to reach somewhere near your own levels of intellectual standing....
I believe in Brexit as I feel that it will allow Britain to be more flexible and adaptable in a constantly changing global economy and geo-political world, and over time be able to agree trade agreements weighted nearer to the requirements of Britain with its different economy, resources, business practices, than where currently our position as one of many in the EU means that we are at risk of trade deals being weighted to the needs of others. I accept that this will take time but good things take time.
I also believe that for the EU to work it needs to become a United States of Europe which is fine and I wish them well but I personally do not feel that the way Britain "works" culturally and from a business perspective fits in to the continental "way" and having worked in and with continental Europe I always found that there was a different way of looking at things compared to the Brits which will likely always be there.
I do hope you will one day see that us brexiters are not evil xenophobes and stupid racists but, in the same way that those on the left and right simply often have equal good intentions but different paths to a solution, just truly believe from our own experience and calculations that there is a different "way".0 -
We will either be de facto rule takers of the EU with the same obligations and most of the benefits or we will be full members participating in decision making. My guess is for the former, as ironically I don't think most Leavers actually want sovereignty. That's more a Remainer concern. To be clear this isn't a Remoaner comment,. Full membership makes sense to me.ReggieCide said:
tomorrow never comesAlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time. Right now Leavers are doing their best to ensure that.0 -
The public have very little to do with it. As in 1975 and 2016, it'll be tactical party considerations that matter most. And the considerations at the moment are that neither the Tory nor Labour leaderships have the slightest interest in reopening a question that's been answered, and every incentive not to do so. So it won't be.AlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time. Right now Leavers are doing their best to ensure that.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.0 -
Given the Tories will almost certainly never agree to that and nor will Corbyn Labour that would require say Chuka Umunna to have replaced Corbyn as Labour leader by then and for him to then win the 2027 general election on a manifesto commitment to rejoin the EU (or more likely the EEA)TheScreamingEagles said:
Tomorrow belongs to me.ReggieCide said:
tomorrow never comesAlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time. Right now Leavers are doing their best to ensure that.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.
You’re all assuming a new referendum on rejoining.
A party or parties that had a manifesto commitment to take us back win a majority in Parliament could do it.
Might happen in 2027, we’ll have been out for six years and if Brexit turns out to be an (economic) mistake, and that should be long enough for the public to make up their mind on whether Brexit was a path to the sunlit uplands or not.0 -
And still value. Should be about 1/4.Pulpstar said:
Tipped up by Meeks on Betfair, and currently odds on. So likely.Anazina said:
A big assumption, possibly accurate, possibly not. But conjecture.Pulpstar said:
A good point, the question changes after March 2019.Elliot said:If there is a "next time" it will not be Leave vs Remain but Rejoin or Don't rejoin after the 2025 election. And rejoin will require much higher membership fees and likely entry into Schengen and the Euro.
0 -
Love the map, it's great.
Seems to me the whole sequence of polls going back to ~1979 demonstrate conclusively that, had the In/Out referendum been held at any other time than the day it was actually held, Remain would have won.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
Good evening, everybody.0 -
I think that’s probably true. At the moment, anyway. If even some of the more unpleasant ‘threats’ of the Remainers come to pass....... especially those directly impinging on the general public and, especially again, those within 25 miles of Central London then the picture will change very quickly.david_herdson said:
The public have very little to do with it. As in 1975 and 2016, it'll be tactical party considerations that matter most. And the considerations at the moment are that neither the Tory nor Labour leaderships have the slightest interest in reopening a question that's been answered, and every incentive not to do so. So it won't be.AlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time. Right now Leavers are doing their best to ensure that.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.0 -
That's possible. But by then, the UK will be out and as others have said, the question would be Rejoin, not Remain.OldKingCole said:
I think that’s probably true. At the moment, anyway. If even some of the more unpleasant ‘threats’ of the Remainers come to pass....... especially those directly impinging on the general public and, especially again, those within 25 miles of Central London then the picture will change very quickly.david_herdson said:
The public have very little to do with it. As in 1975 and 2016, it'll be tactical party considerations that matter most. And the considerations at the moment are that neither the Tory nor Labour leaderships have the slightest interest in reopening a question that's been answered, and every incentive not to do so. So it won't be.AlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time. Right now Leavers are doing their best to ensure that.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.0 -
Good afternoon, Miss JGP.0
-
Indeed. I hope I live to see it.david_herdson said:
That's possible. But by then, the UK will be out and as others have said, the question would be Rejoin, not Remain.OldKingCole said:
I think that’s probably true. At the moment, anyway. If even some of the more unpleasant ‘threats’ of the Remainers come to pass....... especially those directly impinging on the general public and, especially again, those within 25 miles of Central London then the picture will change very quickly.david_herdson said:
The public have very little to do with it. As in 1975 and 2016, it'll be tactical party considerations that matter most. And the considerations at the moment are that neither the Tory nor Labour leaderships have the slightest interest in reopening a question that's been answered, and every incentive not to do so. So it won't be.AlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time. Right now Leavers are doing their best to ensure that.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.0 -
It appears the whole sorry mess has been handled very well by the government from the beginning - the main sad issue being the infection of the police officer, which may have happened before they had much of a clue what was going on.Big_G_NorthWales said:Whoever would have thought that Theresa May in two short weeks would become the de facto leader of the West facing down Putin
I'm not their greatest fan, but May and Boris have gone up on my estimation.
Putin would have got off with no censure if Corbyn has been in charge: he'd be busy blaming our own people.0 -
Mr. Jessop, indeed. I'm surprised by the scale of the diplomatic response, and it's good that Corbyn's willingness to trust the Russian authorities over the British authorities has now, to some degree at least, been seen by the public.0
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I think that's spot on but then I'm for Leave.david_herdson said:
The public have very little to do with it. As in 1975 and 2016, it'll be tactical party considerations that matter most. And the considerations at the moment are that neither the Tory nor Labour leaderships have the slightest interest in reopening a question that's been answered, and every incentive not to do so. So it won't be.AlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time. Right now Leavers are doing their best to ensure that.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.0 -
And at a time Corbyn is mired in anti Semitic accusations, has his MP's openly attacking him, and an actual demonstration on the streets of London condemning himJosiasJessop said:
It appears the whole sorry mess has been handled very well by the government from the beginning - the main sad issue being the infection of the police officer, which may have happened before they had much of a clue what was going on.Big_G_NorthWales said:Whoever would have thought that Theresa May in two short weeks would become the de facto leader of the West facing down Putin
I'm not their greatest fan, but May and Boris have gone up on my estimation.
Putin would have got off with no censure if Corbyn has been in charge: he'd be busy blaming our own people.0 -
I'm sure someone will be along to explain MOE to us.....
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/?removed0 -
A point I have been making for a long time. The question of Rejoiners will be “so which hospitals are you going to close to pay to Rejoin? What taxes are you going to put up? How many billions will changing to the Euro cost?Elliot said:If there is a "next time" it will not be Leave vs Remain but Rejoin or Don't rejoin after the 2025 election. And rejoin will require much higher membership fees and likely entry into Schengen and the Euro.
0 -
I see today that 18 months ago you voted for a xenophobic campaign. You have enabled the contamination of British politics in order to pursue a matter of second order importance. Britain will not develop in a positive direction until Leavers confront their own choice and stop hiding behind what they claim to have wanted. What they claim to have wanted was not on offer.harryfaversham said:
I am pro-Brexit and I am neither a xenophobe or stupid. I lived and worked in Switzerland and France for many years and am pretty much fluent in French, I have worked my whole career with international clients and have had a great relationship with the majority spending large amounts of time with them in both a business and social capacity. I still talk every day to people of many nationalities for business and am able to adapt to the cultural differences and appreciate the similarities. I was educated with my peers of many nationalities and to this day count them as friends. I was married to a Slovak lady in my twenties, my last partner was French and my current is Portuguese. I hope that in some way this allows me to disabuse the notion of me being xenophobic by your high standards.
I was educated at a school regarded to be one of the hardest to enter academically and went on to a University consistently ranked in the global top ten. I ran a private bank at 27 and am sought out to solve complicated problems for global individuals. I hope that this allows me to reach somewhere near your own levels of intellectual standing....
I believe in Brexit as I feel that it will allow Britain to be more flexible and adaptable in a constantly changing global economy and geo-political world, and over time be able to agree trade agreements weighted nearer to the requirements of Britain with its different economy, resources, business practices, than where currently our position as one of many in the EU means that we are at risk of trade deals being weighted to the needs of others. I accept that this will take time but good things take time.
I also believe that for the EU to work it needs to become a United States of Europe which is fine and I wish them well but I personally do not feel that the way Britain "works" culturally and from a business perspective fits in to the continental "way" and having worked in and with continental Europe I always found that there was a different way of looking at things compared to the Brits which will likely always be there.
I do hope you will one day see that us brexiters are not evil xenophobes and stupid racists but, in the same way that those on the left and right simply often have equal good intentions but different paths to a solution, just truly believe from our own experience and calculations that there is a different "way".0 -
Funny old world isn't it?Big_G_NorthWales said:Whoever would have thought that Theresa May in two short weeks would become the de facto leader of the West facing down Putin
0 -
If the public decisively turn against Brexit it will soon become in someone's interest to hold a referendum.david_herdson said:
The public have very little to do with it. As in 1975 and 2016, it'll be tactical party considerations that matter most. And the considerations at the moment are that neither the Tory nor Labour leaderships have the slightest interest in reopening a question that's been answered, and every incentive not to do so. So it won't be.AlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time. Right now Leavers are doing their best to ensure that.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.
0 -
You are quite deranged by Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
I see today that 18 months ago you voted for a xenophobic campaign. You have enabled the contamination of British politics in order to pursue a matter of second order importance. Britain will not develop in a positive direction until Leavers confront their own choice and stop hiding behind what they claim to have wanted. What they claim to have wanted was not on offer.harryfaversham said:
I am pro-Brexit and I am neither a xenophobe or stupid. I lived and worked in Switzerland and France for many years and am pretty much fluent in French, I have worked my whole career with international clients and have had a great relationship with the majority spending large amounts of time with them in both a business and social capacity. I still talk every day to people of many nationalities for business and am able to adapt to the cultural differences and appreciate the similarities. I was educated with my peers of many nationalities and to this day count them as friends. I was married to a Slovak lady in my twenties, my last partner was French and my current is Portuguese. I hope that in some way this allows me to disabuse the notion of me being xenophobic by your high standards.
I was educated at a school regarded to be one of the hardest to enter academically and went on to a University consistently ranked in the global top ten. I ran a private bank at 27 and am sought out to solve complicated problems for global individuals. I hope that this allows me to reach somewhere near your own levels of intellectual standing....
I believe in Brexit as I feel that it will allow Britain to be more flexible and adaptable in a constantly changing global economy and geo-political world, and over time be able to agree trade agreements weighted nearer to the requirements of Britain with its different economy, resources, business practices, than where currently our position as one of many in the EU means that we are at risk of trade deals being weighted to the needs of others. I accept that this will take time but good things take time.
I also believe that for the EU to work it needs to become a United States of Europe which is fine and I wish them well but I personally do not feel that the way Britain "works" culturally and from a business perspective fits in to the continental "way" and having worked in and with continental Europe I always found that there was a different way of looking at things compared to the Brits which will likely always be there.
I do hope you will one day see that us brexiters are not evil xenophobes and stupid racists but, in the same way that those on the left and right simply often have equal good intentions but different paths to a solution, just truly believe from our own experience and calculations that there is a different "way".0 -
Remain was further ahead (10%) than that with Populas... On 23rd June 2016!AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=210 -
Quite. Those who think the wedding is more important than the marriage are those who end up divorced not long afterwards.Cyclefree said:
A rough rule of thumb of mine is that the more elaborate and over the top the wedding the less likely the marriage is to endure. There are relationships where you feel that the people concerned are playing at being husband and wife rather than really having a solid relationship.OldKingCole said:Totally O/t but has anyone seen this on the BBC
'A bride and groom's bid to surprise guests by having a owl deliver their wedding rings did not go quite to plan.
The bird was spooked by one of the seated best men pointing at it - and dived towards the individual.’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-43553909/bride-and-groom-s-owl-plans-are-a-hoot
Which is of course what happens when you have free owls.0 -
No static position was on offer A choice of starting points to move from were on offer.AlastairMeeks said:
If the public decisively turn against Brexit it will soon become in someone's interest to hold a referendum.david_herdson said:
The public have very little to do with it. As in 1975 and 2016, it'll be tactical party considerations that matter most. And the considerations at the moment are that neither the Tory nor Labour leaderships have the slightest interest in reopening a question that's been answered, and every incentive not to do so. So it won't be.AlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time. Right now Leavers are doing their best to ensure that.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.0 -
So what.GIN1138 said:
Remain was further ahead (10%) than that with Populas... On 23rd June 2016!AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=210 -
Please stop this... it's getting a bit embarrassing to read now.AlastairMeeks said:
I see today that 18 months ago you voted for a xenophobic campaign. You have enabled the contamination of British politics in order to pursue a matter of second order importance. Britain will not develop in a positive direction until Leavers confront their own choice and stop hiding behind what they claim to have wanted. What they claim to have wanted was not on offer.I bow to nobody in my horror and disappointment at the referendum result but the truth is that both campaigns were terrible. The vast majority of people who voted on both sides were not and are not bad people. If they were then all of us would have to condemn and insult members of our own families and circle of friends in order to be consistent. I see no malice in my loved ones who voted against what I believe to be the national interest and therefore no reason to assume bad intentions in people I don't know either.
0 -
RT live feed of Mrs May with the Liaison Ctte:
https://twitter.com/RTUKnews/status/9786560874769039360 -
It's been the Government and May's best couple of weeks since the release of the Tory Mainfesto. Its not only been good for her its been utterly awful for Labour and Corbyn. It has that familiar feeling of Corbyn lurching from crisis to crisis as a party leader in the way he did before he defied all expectations to lose the last General Election a lot better than expected.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And at a time Corbyn is mired in anti Semitic accusations, has his MP's openly attacking him, and an actual demonstration on the streets of London condemning himJosiasJessop said:
It appears the whole sorry mess has been handled very well by the government from the beginning - the main sad issue being the infection of the police officer, which may have happened before they had much of a clue what was going on.Big_G_NorthWales said:Whoever would have thought that Theresa May in two short weeks would become the de facto leader of the West facing down Putin
I'm not their greatest fan, but May and Boris have gone up on my estimation.
Putin would have got off with no censure if Corbyn has been in charge: he'd be busy blaming our own people.
0 -
Those who voted for a Leave campaign which included those posters implicitly agreed with, and contributed to the direction of the country towards a more xenophobic attitude. They said: yes, this is fine, this is the kind of country I want to be in. They endorsed that xenophobic, hateful campaign and they were prepared to do this because they had some nebulous idea of sovereignty (which we always were, btw).Torby_Fennel said:
Please stop this... it's getting a bit embarrassing to read now.AlastairMeeks said:
I see today that 18 months ago you voted for a xenophobic campaign. You have enabled the contamination of British politics in order to pursue a matter of second order importance. Britain will not develop in a positive direction until Leavers confront their own choice and stop hiding behind what they claim to have wanted. What they claim to have wanted was not on offer.I bow to nobody in my horror and disappointment at the referendum result but the truth is that both campaigns were terrible. The vast majority of people who voted on both sides were not and are not bad people. If they were then all of us would have to condemn and insult members of our own families and circle of friends in order to be consistent. I see no malice in my loved ones who voted against what I believe to be the national interest and therefore no reason to assume bad intentions in people I don't know either.
That I imagine is why Alastair won't let it go, and quite right that he shouldn't, IMO.0 -
But you do need to compare like with like.GIN1138 said:
Remain was further ahead (10%) than that with Populas... On 23rd June 2016!AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
The last BMG online poll 8 days before the referendum had a 10% lead for Leave. That is really the only valid comparison with pre referendum polls that can be made with this one.0 -
Mr. Topping, ironic to see you making comments of xenophobia after your comments on the Jews the other day.0
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You can cover his comfort breaks when, decades from now, he's still ranting about xenophobia from a plinth at Speakers' CornerTOPPING said:
Those who voted for a Leave campaign which included those posters implicitly agreed with, and contributed to the direction of the country towards a more xenophobic attitude. They said: yes, this is fine, this is the kind of country I want to be in. They endorsed that xenophobic, hateful campaign and they were prepared to do this because they had some nebulous idea of sovereignty (which we always were, btw).Torby_Fennel said:
Please stop this... it's getting a bit embarrassing to read now.AlastairMeeks said:
I see today that 18 months ago you voted for a xenophobic campaign. You have enabled the contamination of British politics in order to pursue a matter of second order importance. Britain will not develop in a positive direction until Leavers confront their own choice and stop hiding behind what they claim to have wanted. What they claim to have wanted was not on offer.I bow to nobody in my horror and disappointment at the referendum result but the truth is that both campaigns were terrible. The vast majority of people who voted on both sides were not and are not bad people. If they were then all of us would have to condemn and insult members of our own families and circle of friends in order to be consistent. I see no malice in my loved ones who voted against what I believe to be the national interest and therefore no reason to assume bad intentions in people I don't know either.
That I imagine is why Alastair won't let it go, and quite right that he shouldn't, IMO.0 -
Nobody voted for a campaign. It wasn't a BGT show.TOPPING said:
Those who voted for a Leave campaign which included those posters implicitly agreed with, and contributed to the direction of the country towards a more xenophobic attitude. They said: yes, this is fine, this is the kind of country I want to be in. They endorsed that xenophobic, hateful campaign and they were prepared to do this because they had some nebulous idea of sovereignty (which we always were, btw).Torby_Fennel said:
Please stop this... it's getting a bit embarrassing to read now.AlastairMeeks said:
I see today that 18 months ago you voted for a xenophobic campaign. You have enabled the contamination of British politics in order to pursue a matter of second order importance. Britain will not develop in a positive direction until Leavers confront their own choice and stop hiding behind what they claim to have wanted. What they claim to have wanted was not on offer.I bow to nobody in my horror and disappointment at the referendum result but the truth is that both campaigns were terrible. The vast majority of people who voted on both sides were not and are not bad people. If they were then all of us would have to condemn and insult members of our own families and circle of friends in order to be consistent. I see no malice in my loved ones who voted against what I believe to be the national interest and therefore no reason to assume bad intentions in people I don't know either.
That I imagine is why Alastair won't let it go, and quite right that he shouldn't, IMO.
It was a decision on whether or not to Remain In or Leave the EU. That was what was on the ballot paper, and that's what people voted on.0 -
Those who voted for a Remain campaign that included people who believed we should join a Federalist EU and adopt the Euro implicitly agreed with the federalist, pro Euro agenda.TOPPING said:
Those who voted for a Leave campaign which included those posters implicitly agreed with, and contributed to the direction of the country towards a more xenophobic attitude. They said: yes, this is fine, this is the kind of country I want to be in. They endorsed that xenophobic, hateful campaign and they were prepared to do this because they had some nebulous idea of sovereignty (which we always were, btw).Torby_Fennel said:
Please stop this... it's getting a bit embarrassing to read now.AlastairMeeks said:
I see today that 18 months ago you voted for a xenophobic campaign. You have enabled the contamination of British politics in order to pursue a matter of second order importance. Britain will not develop in a positive direction until Leavers confront their own choice and stop hiding behind what they claim to have wanted. What they claim to have wanted was not on offer.I bow to nobody in my horror and disappointment at the referendum result but the truth is that both campaigns were terrible. The vast majority of people who voted on both sides were not and are not bad people. If they were then all of us would have to condemn and insult members of our own families and circle of friends in order to be consistent. I see no malice in my loved ones who voted against what I believe to be the national interest and therefore no reason to assume bad intentions in people I don't know either.
That I imagine is why Alastair won't let it go, and quite right that he shouldn't, IMO.
That at least is the logical conclusion of your claims.0 -
Well, it won't be, until the leaderships change, and that is likely in the next five years. It wouldn't take much for Labour to go that direction, for the Tories it may take a little more. If the UK turns away from free trade, towards tariffs and economic protectionism, the liberal wing of the Conservatives may start to fancy that the grass is greener on the other side.david_herdson said:
The public have very little to do with it. As in 1975 and 2016, it'll be tactical party considerations that matter most. And the considerations at the moment are that neither the Tory nor Labour leaderships have the slightest interest in reopening a question that's been answered, and every incentive not to do so. So it won't be.AlastairMeeks said:
If the public believe in increasing numbers that Brexit was a mistake there will be a next time. Right now Leavers are doing their best to ensure that.CarlottaVance said:
The optimism is in this charming delusion that there will be a 'next time'AlastairMeeks said:
You seem to think your own side’s antics are going to be more wholesome than last time. That seems optimistic.Casino_Royale said:
The topline numbers are 53% Remain and 47% Leave, but once again nearly all that change comes from people who didn't vote in the 2016 referendum.Anazina said:
Yes, people have come to the conclusion that Brexit just isn't worth it.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, another poll shows Remain well ahead of Leave:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is .
I think that the country will be bored of Brexit by the next election, but will increasingly be aware of what they have lost, with the ashes of sovereignty tasting pretty poorly in their mouths. It will start to become an issue again by the late 2020's. Both the UK and the EU will look different by then. The Conservatives may well be the party that takes us back in, returning to its postwar position of pro-Europeanism.0 -
How about if all the Leavers just claim we never saw either of the posters?
Why didn't Remainers just retweet them a few more times, then we might have noticed how racist they were..0