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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the Universal Ballot Database – A map which lets y
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the Universal Ballot Database – A map which lets you zoom in and get ward level election results
On PB we always like to hear about innovative means of getting election and other data. Well let me alert you to Lawrence Ware’s grandly titled Universal Ballot Database which enables the user to zoom in, see the mapping of every individual ward n England and Wales and the results.
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Where can one find these people ?
Looks like it's from the main elections rather than by-elections - based on one ward I know of.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/978627009969565696?s=21
It's the boundary of Bristol City Council – takes in a large sandbar in the Bristol Channel which is English territory. Almost touches the island of Flat Holm*, which is entirely Welsh territory albeit with its waters to the South West entirely in England.
*Wales' most southerly point.
Very interesting indeed.
Jacob Rees-Mogg?
53/47 is of course a squeeze - it's the other number that do not point to any meaningful shift at all.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmg-poll-independent-public-say-will-short-term-pain-long-term-gain/
But for some reason Leavers aren’t beginning to think about how to win new converts.
You might want to hang your hat on non-voters, but it's a very confident strategist who thinks they'll be decisive given they didn't vote in the biggest vote of all time 2 years ago. At the very best it's a gamble everyone, now, feels the same way you do.
Also, that same poll shows the public think we'll be more prosperous in the long-term, with only a short-term hit, from Brexit. And there's another poll this week showing that people think that Brexit should go ahead by 57%/22%, so how the campaign was framed would be very influential over the final result.
My view is that in any second referendum a chunk of the soft eurosceptic Remainers would peel off to endorse the original decision. The irreconcilables would vote Remain so hard that their pencils made a hole in the ballot paper, but they'd probably lose by a bigger margin than before, not least because their antics would turn people off.
Leavers used extremely unpleasant xenophobic lies to achieve their aim.
Fine, the end justifies the means so what's all this complaining about.
Except, there was a self-fulfilling prophecy element about the process. Those posters became emblematic and contributed in some way to the debate such that people endorsed, whether while holding their nose or not, a UK that didn't just want to take back control (weasel words used as an excuse in particular by those on here) but a UK that was actively xenophobic and a place which endorsed those posters and the ideology behind them.
Leavers on here were happy, together with reclaiming their blessed sovereignty (we were always sovereign, of course) to contribute to the ideology, the perception, and the expectation that the UK is xenophobic and dislikes foreigners.
It is in that light that one is entitled to ask: was it worth it?
That's the way to do it!
Worked so well last time.....
At least some of us learn as we progress through life....
When the numbers are that tight both sides need to appeal to the other.
Telling those you disagree with to go f*ck themselves might not be the best way to win them over.
After that rejoin needs to win enough converts to overtake inertia.
Or some sort of suicide mission by Labour to deny the result in the happy knowledge they would get smashed at the polls in 2022 for the u-turn.
Oh, and by the way:
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-there-should-be-a-second-referendum-on-whether-britain-remains-a-member-of-the-european-union-or-not/?removed
I'd have thought it would be Remainers in search of a second referendum that should be seriously worried....
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-there-should-be-a-second-referendum-on-whether-britain-remains-a-member-of-the-european-union-or-not/?removed
'A bride and groom's bid to surprise guests by having a owl deliver their wedding rings did not go quite to plan.
The bird was spooked by one of the seated best men pointing at it - and dived towards the individual.’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-43553909/bride-and-groom-s-owl-plans-are-a-hoot
Which is of course what happens when you have free owls.
In my own family my devout Brexiteer step-grandmother sadly died last year, whilst a couple of teenagers not old enough to vote in 2016 have now joined the legions of those likely to oppose Brexit at the ballot box. A story likely replicated in millions of families countrywide.
Violets are blue.
If Corbyn wins
There'll be no vote on the EU.
You’re all assuming a new referendum on rejoining.
A party or parties that had a manifesto commitment to take us back win a majority in Parliament could do it.
Might happen in 2027, we’ll have been out for six years and if Brexit turns out to be an (economic) mistake, and that should be long enough for the public to make up their mind on whether Brexit was a path to the sunlit uplands or not.
Then he wakes up and starts screaming "WAAAAH! XENEPHOBIC LIES! XENEPHOBIC LIES! WAAAAAAH!"
And they all change the way they voted.
That said, I did underestimate how vitriolic the aftermath would be and I think some of the Government's PR from c. July 2016 to c. May 2017 was a mistake, which further soiled the bed, so that's a lesson too.
But, there are no "certainties" about the UK for the next few decades, or GE2022, or even the next few months.
Mr Meeks. I really have to react to your constant sneering of people who are pro-Brexit as being either xenophobic or stupid. Your blind spot on this is unbelievable and for someone who I have often admired on this site for years I am staggered that you don't see that your intolerance and generalisation is no different from those you seem to despise (stupid xenophobes).
I am pro-Brexit and I am neither a xenophobe or stupid. I lived and worked in Switzerland and France for many years and am pretty much fluent in French, I have worked my whole career with international clients and have had a great relationship with the majority spending large amounts of time with them in both a business and social capacity. I still talk every day to people of many nationalities for business and am able to adapt to the cultural differences and appreciate the similarities. I was educated with my peers of many nationalities and to this day count them as friends. I was married to a Slovak lady in my twenties, my last partner was French and my current is Portuguese. I hope that in some way this allows me to disabuse the notion of me being xenophobic by your high standards.
I was educated at a school regarded to be one of the hardest to enter academically and went on to a University consistently ranked in the global top ten. I ran a private bank at 27 and am sought out to solve complicated problems for global individuals. I hope that this allows me to reach somewhere near your own levels of intellectual standing....
I believe in Brexit as I feel that it will allow Britain to be more flexible and adaptable in a constantly changing global economy and geo-political world, and over time be able to agree trade agreements weighted nearer to the requirements of Britain with its different economy, resources, business practices, than where currently our position as one of many in the EU means that we are at risk of trade deals being weighted to the needs of others. I accept that this will take time but good things take time.
I also believe that for the EU to work it needs to become a United States of Europe which is fine and I wish them well but I personally do not feel that the way Britain "works" culturally and from a business perspective fits in to the continental "way" and having worked in and with continental Europe I always found that there was a different way of looking at things compared to the Brits which will likely always be there.
I do hope you will one day see that us brexiters are not evil xenophobes and stupid racists but, in the same way that those on the left and right simply often have equal good intentions but different paths to a solution, just truly believe from our own experience and calculations that there is a different "way".
Good evening, everybody.
I'm not their greatest fan, but May and Boris have gone up on my estimation.
Putin would have got off with no censure if Corbyn has been in charge: he'd be busy blaming our own people.
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/?removed
https://twitter.com/RTUKnews/status/978656087476903936
That I imagine is why Alastair won't let it go, and quite right that he shouldn't, IMO.
The last BMG online poll 8 days before the referendum had a 10% lead for Leave. That is really the only valid comparison with pre referendum polls that can be made with this one.
It was a decision on whether or not to Remain In or Leave the EU. That was what was on the ballot paper, and that's what people voted on.
That at least is the logical conclusion of your claims.
I think that the country will be bored of Brexit by the next election, but will increasingly be aware of what they have lost, with the ashes of sovereignty tasting pretty poorly in their mouths. It will start to become an issue again by the late 2020's. Both the UK and the EU will look different by then. The Conservatives may well be the party that takes us back in, returning to its postwar position of pro-Europeanism.
Why didn't Remainers just retweet them a few more times, then we might have noticed how racist they were..