politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moving the dial. How Britain swung last year
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moving the dial. How Britain swung last year
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Comments
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First! Like Mrs May.....0
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Fascinating! Thank you Mr Meeks & Viewcode.
You will note that I have no code for swings to the SNP. None was needed. As can be seen from the map, the story was one of carnage for them, with 10% swings in favour of both the Conservatives and Labour quite routine. Labour benefited in the Central Belt while elsewhere the Conservatives dominated in Scotland. The SNP need to work out how to stop the rot.
Is why some of us don't regard 2017 as an unmitigated disaster for the Tories.....0 -
Really good article, liked the map as well.0
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Interesting piece on the impact of Trump's aluminium and steel tariffs:
https://qz.com/1220847/what-trumps-tariff-trade-war-could-mean-for-you-higher-prices-layoffs-and-economic-nosedives/0 -
Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.
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Interesting article, Alastair and well done with the map.0
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I think Kezia Dugdale deserves some of the "credit" for the Scottish results after urging a tactical vote for the Tories against the SNP in certain seats.rkrkrk said:Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.0 -
Was shocked when I saw that, although I think there would have been Labour tactical votes for the Tories regardless. One of my hopes is those votes will not go to the Tories next time. Whilst I can't see them slipping down to 2015 levels anytime soon I do think 2017 is probably a high point rather than a staging post for the Tories in Scotland.old_labour said:
I think Kezia Dugdale deserves some of the "credit" for the Scottish results after urging a tactical vote for the Tories against the SNP in certain seats.rkrkrk said:Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.0 -
Good analysis and the map is a very useful illustration of the regional differences.
I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.0 -
Good analysis and the map is a very useful illustration of the regional differences.
I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.0 -
I think the fishermen in the North East will be in for a nasty surprise after "strong and stable" caves into the EU.TheJezziah said:
Was shocked when I saw that, although I think there would have been Labour tactical votes for the Tories regardless. One of my hopes is those votes will not go to the Tories next time. Whilst I can't see them slipping down to 2015 levels anytime soon I do think 2017 is probably a high point rather than a staging post for the Tories in Scotland.old_labour said:
I think Kezia Dugdale deserves some of the "credit" for the Scottish results after urging a tactical vote for the Tories against the SNP in certain seats.rkrkrk said:Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.0 -
It is a very good article indeed.Sandpit said:Good analysis and the map is a very useful illustration of the regional differences.
I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.
'Brexit will be done' only in the sense that it will almost certainly have happened; in terms of the politics of its effects, it will be very much a live issue, I suspect.
Will the Tories and Labour have new leaders ? Far from a certainty...
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Merecedes pulling 5g at Barcelona:
https://www.racefans.net/2018/03/12/mercedes-flat-out-catalunya-turn-nine/0 -
I’m always curious what people who casually write “Brexit will be done” think Brexit will mean.Nigelb said:
It is a very good article indeed.Sandpit said:Good analysis and the map is a very useful illustration of the regional differences.
I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.
'Brexit will be done' only in the sense that it will almost certainly have happened; in terms of the politics of its effects, it will be very much a live issue, I suspect.
Will the Tories and Labour have new leaders ? Far from a certainty...0 -
It's interesting how Ruth Davidson is credited with the Tories performance in Scotland. Don't get me wrong, I think she is a very good politician, but I actually think May's message on Brexit - and Sturgeon's message on Brexit - is what really benefitted the Tories in North East Scotland.rkrkrk said:Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.0 -
I think Unionist tactical voting was the dominant factor: hence the swings to whoever was the non-SNP challenger. (Otherwise how do you explain the LD gains of Edinburgh West, and CS&ER, and the two vote miss in Fife NE.)tlg86 said:
It's interesting how Ruth Davidson is credited with the Tories performance in Scotland. Don't get me wrong, I think she is a very good politician, but I actually think May's message on Brexit - and Sturgeon's message on Brexit - is what really benefitted the Tories in North East Scotland.rkrkrk said:Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.0 -
Housing is critical in London - not just as a direct driver of voting behaviour in reaction to the crisis, but as an indirect driver of demographic change - giving encouragement to older mainly white people to leave the capital and/or become landlords and the replacement of owner occupation with private rented and multiple occupancy. Coupled with the higher birth rate of most ethnic minority populations, the Tories would be in trouble in London regardless of Brexit, although this certainly compounds their difficulties, introducing a new negative for the young and deterring older graduates and the business sector generally.0
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If Brexit is done and is a reasonable success, then I suspect that Mrs May will still be in place.Sandpit said:Good analysis and the map is a very useful illustration of the regional differences.
I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.0 -
I suspect that - assuming Brexit is a mild positive - there will still be constituencies where it has been a negative. Either because there were EU dependent industries, or because house prices were propped up by (for example) French expat bankers.Dura_Ace said:
It's not going anywhere as a major political issue. Every time a cat gets stuck up a tree it's going to get blamed on Brexit.Sandpit said:Brexit will be done
And people will remember losses more than gains.
For that reason, I suspect Brexit will still - in a number of constituencies - be a hotbutton issue in 2022.
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Or simply that tactical anti-nat voting overcame tactical anti-Tory voting, at least temporarily.tlg86 said:
It's interesting how Ruth Davidson is credited with the Tories performance in Scotland. Don't get me wrong, I think she is a very good politician, but I actually think May's message on Brexit - and Sturgeon's message on Brexit - is what really benefitted the Tories in North East Scotland.rkrkrk said:Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.0 -
OT -- Trump blocks sale of US chip-maker Qualcomm on national security grounds,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43380893
Whereas Britain would welcome the loss of its own industry. #Things we could learn from America.0 -
The third party votes are going to be really hard to work out. The 1990s and 00s saw loads of seats with big third party shares - normally LD but sometimes UKIP (sorry Scotland and Wales I cant work this one out), hoe the 2 main parties target resources is going to be really tough as currently we dont know if there will be a 3rd party challenge like we had up until 2015... I think working out swings/gains and losses based on the 2017 election will be almost impossible as we dont know the vote after the Lab/Con split - VC had better be praying for an uptick or the LDs could be facing real trouble if they have a 3rd bad showing in a row0
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I'm not sure what the alternatives would have been to using oil and petrol over the past 60 years.Nigelb said:0 -
And that is a big assumption hiding in there...rcs1000 said:
I suspect that - assuming Brexit is a mild positive - there will still be constituencies where it has been a negative. Either because there were EU dependent industries, or because house prices were propped up by (for example) French expat bankers.Dura_Ace said:
It's not going anywhere as a major political issue. Every time a cat gets stuck up a tree it's going to get blamed on Brexit.Sandpit said:Brexit will be done
And people will remember losses more than gains.
For that reason, I suspect Brexit will still - in a number of constituencies - be a hotbutton issue in 2022.0 -
The question is whether that number will be 650 or 600.rcs1000 said:
I suspect that - assuming Brexit is a mild positive - there will still be constituencies where it has been a negative. Either because there were EU dependent industries, or because house prices were propped up by (for example) French expat bankers.Dura_Ace said:
It's not going anywhere as a major political issue. Every time a cat gets stuck up a tree it's going to get blamed on Brexit.Sandpit said:Brexit will be done
And people will remember losses more than gains.
For that reason, I suspect Brexit will still - in a number of constituencies - be a hotbutton issue in 2022.0 -
Possibly true, but there will be little anyone will be able to do about it, the negotiations having been completed as us having actually left.Dura_Ace said:
It's not going anywhere as a major political issue. Every time a cat gets stuck up a tree it's going to get blamed on Brexit.Sandpit said:Brexit will be done
I'd be surprised if Labour will be running a campaign to rejoin the EU, although the Lib Dems might.0 -
This year's cars look to be a couple of seconds quicker than last year's cars, which is astonishing given the minimal rule changes. We'll find out for certain in 10 days' time.Nigelb said:Merecedes pulling 5g at Barcelona:
https://www.racefans.net/2018/03/12/mercedes-flat-out-catalunya-turn-nine/0 -
Today's Spring Statement looks like being a 15 minute damp squib:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-433802120 -
The referendum leave/Tory change link was quite weak.in Scotland. Though I did have a small bet on Banff.tlg86 said:
It's interesting how Ruth Davidson is credited with the Tories performance in Scotland. Don't get me wrong, I think she is a very good politician, but I actually think May's message on Brexit - and Sturgeon's message on Brexit - is what really benefitted the Tories in North East Scotland.rkrkrk said:Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.
Gordon was reasonably remain according to Hanretty, to come from 4th there was staggering0 -
The map is startling because it shows what Ruth Davidson achieved in Scotland. Of course these are huge constituencies which very much exaggerate the effect but wow. She saved May's ass because without those gains no viable government would have been possible.CarlottaVance said:Fascinating! Thank you Mr Meeks & Viewcode.
You will note that I have no code for swings to the SNP. None was needed. As can be seen from the map, the story was one of carnage for them, with 10% swings in favour of both the Conservatives and Labour quite routine. Labour benefited in the Central Belt while elsewhere the Conservatives dominated in Scotland. The SNP need to work out how to stop the rot.
Is why some of us don't regard 2017 as an unmitigated disaster for the Tories.....0 -
Brexit will be done, but not forgotten. I expect that it will be a damp squib constituting little change apart from modest economic decline. It certainly will not resolve the problems of globalisation that drove it as a movement.Sandpit said:Good analysis and the map is a very useful illustration of the regional differences.
I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.
It will remain an issue though, as rather like the loathing of the Tories in Scotland and industrial areas in England and Wales generated by Thacherism, whole chunks of the electorate will be lost to the Tories for a generation, possibly forever.
@AlastairMeeks has done some fantastic maps and a great article, and one to be referred back to. It does still seem remarkable that Corbynism took 30% of the vote in places like leafy Harborough or Huntington. This is not just a phenomenon of a few radical students, but rather in true blue Shire England.0 -
With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.0
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Also:williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/973444959918575616
and
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/973445840734912514
Trump, however is keeping his own counsel....0 -
As I said on Sunday he will have something like an additional £16bn to play with beyond what the OBR told him in November. He should certainly bank the majority but it would be crazy not to reduce the pressure on NHS Trusts who spent a lot of extra money dealing with the winter bed crisis and LA budgets squeezed to breaking point by Social Care costs. Both are coming into the new financial year with deficits facing serious wage pressures.MarqueeMark said:Today's Spring Statement looks like being a 15 minute damp squib:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43380212
For £1bn he could probably get the thick end of 20k social houses/flats built by Housing Associations this year or next too. He should do it. The government really has to show it is about more than Brexit (and fighting economic wars with tinpot dictators).0 -
When the two main parties are polling close to 90% in England, you should expect fair-sized Labour votes in such areas, as in the 1950's.Foxy said:
Brexit will be done, but not forgotten. I expect that it will be a damp squib constituting little change apart from modest economic decline. It certainly will not resolve the problems of globalisation that drove it as a movement.Sandpit said:Good analysis and the map is a very useful illustration of the regional differences.
I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.
It will remain an issue though, as rather like the loathing of the Tories in Scotland and industrial areas in England and Wales generated by Thacherism, whole chunks of the electorate will be lost to the Tories for a generation, possibly forever.
@AlastairMeeks has done some fantastic maps and a great article, and one to be referred back to. It does still seem remarkable that Corbynism took 30% of the vote in places like leafy Harborough or Huntington. This is not just a phenomenon of a few radical students, but rather in true blue Shire England.0 -
I'm pretty sure both oversaw increases in the Labour vote. Although there's a good chance given the current negativity O'Mara could see a decrease next time, the longer the parliament goes the better for him.ydoethur said:With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.
There could be a loss due to personal vote but not enough to make the difference unless other factors intervene I'd imagine.0 -
I see Donald Trump has responded overnight to the news about Russia.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973360355790479361?s=210 -
The President of France expresses solidarity with the UK, as does the US Secretary of State. Spot the difference?
Within minutes of Moslem terrorist attacks on the UK President Trump is Tweeting. Days after Russian attacks, nothing. Once again, he’s demonstrating that he’s the most anti-UK president in living memory. It’s amazing what leeway a Churchill bust and the right colour skin can buy you!0 -
Hopefully Tillerson has told Trump to keep his mouth shut on this one!CarlottaVance said:
Also:williamglenn said:
ttps://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/973444959918575616
and
ttps://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/973445840734912514
Trump, however is keeping his own counsel....
I do think the possibility of a sporting boycot is increasing though, but it will need a lot of co-ordination among nations if its to be effective.0 -
Thank you Mr M - very informative. I think you mentioned Brexit once, but you might have got away with it!0
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O'Mara yes. Didn't realise Pidcock did. She also of course lost her safe council seat weeks beforehand suggesting her personal qualities were not behind any increase in her vote.TheJezziah said:
I'm pretty sure both oversaw increases in the Labour vote. Although there's a good chance given the current negativity O'Mara could see a decrease next time, the longer the parliament goes the better for him.ydoethur said:With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.
There could be a loss due to personal vote but not enough to make the difference unless other factors intervene I'd imagine.
I doubt very much if people who spend so much time away from the Commons (including missing a key vote to take a birthday holiday) will fare well next time. As May found out the voters don't like being taken for granted.
The key thing about Skinner has always been his dedication (although it's decreasing as he ages). The current crop of left wingers come across as shallow and self-indulgent by comparison and in a direct comparison it's hard to believe they wouldn't suffer.
That's not to say Bolsover is vulnerable just to say I think it's not quite as safe as Alistair assumed.0 -
Damn. The thread was going so well up to then.SandyRentool said:Thank you Mr M - very informative. I think you mentioned Brexit once, but you might have got away with it!
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Fascinating thread map. Interesting to note that we are a largely a nation of big swingers with a strong cluster around the south east Midlands close to Bedford and those pesky LibDems swinging the most.
Might be worthy of an insightful thread from OGH himself ....0 -
Sheffield Hallam could well be a three way marginal next time out. I see the LDs have picked a candidate already, which is a smart move.TheJezziah said:
I'm pretty sure both oversaw increases in the Labour vote. Although there's a good chance given the current negativity O'Mara could see a decrease next time, the longer the parliament goes the better for him.ydoethur said:With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.
There could be a loss due to personal vote but not enough to make the difference unless other factors intervene I'd imagine.0 -
And impossible to ignore that Britons swing both ways!JackW said:Fascinating thread map. Interesting to note that we are a largely a nation of big swingers with a strong cluster around the south east Midlands close to Bedford and those pesky LibDems swinging the most.
Might be worthy of an insightful thread from OGH himself ....0 -
Yep - anyone hoping for the kind of US backing of the UK that would have been automatic from any other American president after a Russian attack on British soil that may have had as many as 500 victims will be sorely disappointed. But, hey, the bloke’s put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office and he’s not an uppity African, so all is well.williamglenn said:I see Donald Trump has responded overnight to the news about Russia.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973360355790479361?s=21
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Morning all
Cheltenham - Day 1
1:30 Summerville boy
2:10 Petit Mouchoir
2:50 Coo Star Sivola
3:30 Buveur D'Air
4:10 La Bague Au Roi
4:50 Jury Duty
5:30 Mister Whitaker0 -
Medical professionals are well known as being at the forefront of the movement.Foxy said:
And impossible to ignore that Britons swing both ways!JackW said:Fascinating thread map. Interesting to note that we are a largely a nation of big swingers with a strong cluster around the south east Midlands close to Bedford and those pesky LibDems swinging the most.
Might be worthy of an insightful thread from OGH himself ....
Doctors and nurses playing at doctors and nurses.0 -
An armed pitch invasion in Greece puts West Ham in perspective!
Greek Super League suspended after PAOK Salonika president invades pitch with gun - http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43369490
There is a Russian connection as Savvidas was a member of the Russian Duma. My Greek friends are PAOK supporters and there is now a very heavy Russian influence in the club and around the area of Thessalonika. Most Greeks there are of Anatolian descent, having been resettled there in the 1920's, The Russians are seen as defenders of Greece.0 -
Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.0
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Nobody cares what colour his skin is, Vince.SouthamObserver said:The President of France expresses solidarity with the UK, as does the US Secretary of State. Spot the difference?
Within minutes of Moslem terrorist attacks on the UK President Trump is Tweeting. Days after Russian attacks, nothing. Once again, he’s demonstrating that he’s the most anti-UK president in living memory. It’s amazing what leeway a Churchill bust and the right colour skin can buy you!0 -
Have you read this article on him?Foxy said:An armed pitch invasion in Greece puts West Ham in perspective!
Greek Super League suspended after PAOK Salonika president invades pitch with gun - http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43369490
There is a Russian connection as Savvidas was a member of the Russian Duma. My Greek friends are PAOK supporters and there is now a very heavy Russian influence in the club and around the area of Thessalonika. Most Greeks there are of Anatolian descent, having been resettled there in the 1920's, The Russians are seen as defenders of Greece.
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2018/01/05/new-greek-oligarchy/
If true it's fascinating and not a little worrrying.0 -
I don't think he would thank you for calling him an African. As he patiently out to the birther movement, he was a natural born American.SouthamObserver said:Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.
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I get the feeling with Pidcock the dislike is mainly from those not voting Labour anyway.ydoethur said:
O'Mara yes. Didn't realise Pidcock did. She also of course lost her safe council seat weeks beforehand suggesting her personal qualities were not behind any increase in her vote.TheJezziah said:
I'm pretty sure both oversaw increases in the Labour vote. Although there's a good chance given the current negativity O'Mara could see a decrease next time, the longer the parliament goes the better for him.ydoethur said:With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.
There could be a loss due to personal vote but not enough to make the difference unless other factors intervene I'd imagine.
I doubt very much if people who spend so much time away from the Commons (including missing a key vote to take a birthday holiday) will fare well next time. As May found out the voters don't like being taken for granted.
The key thing about Skinner has always been his dedication (although it's decreasing as he ages). The current crop of left wingers come across as shallow and self-indulgent by comparison and in a direct comparison it's hard to believe they wouldn't suffer.
That's not to say Bolsover is vulnerable just to say I think it's not quite as safe as Alistair assumed.
To the original discussion I sort of feel like you've ended up at an argument that sort of agrees with my original point. If O'Mara and Pidcock were not elected for their personal vote but managed to increase the Labour vote share then Labour selecting someone like O'Mara or Pidcock is hardly likely to be a bigger negative than them replacing Skinner with someone else, it'll be a loss whoever but no more for it being someone left wing.
I think considering recent elections the idea that Labour voters are crying out for those good old centrist politicians rather than these dastardly left wingers is a little unlikely regardless of your personal opinions of left wingers.
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It is true personal votes matter less than was once thought. Look at Twickenham.TheJezziah said:
I get the feeling with Pidcock the dislike is mainly from those not voting Labour anyway.ydoethur said:
O'Mara yes. Didn't realise Pidcock did. She also of course lost her safe council seat weeks beforehand suggesting her personal qualities were not behind any increase in her vote.TheJezziah said:
I'm pretty sure both oversaw increases in the Labour vote. Although there's a good chance given the current negativity O'Mara could see a decrease next time, the longer the parliament goes the better for him.ydoethur said:With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.
There could be a loss due to personal vote but not enough to make the difference unless other factors intervene I'd imagine.
I doubt very much if people who spend so much time away from the Commons (including missing a key vote to take a birthday holiday) will fare well next time. As May found out the voters don't like being taken for granted.
The key thing about Skinner has always been his dedication (although it's decreasing as he ages). The current crop of left wingers come across as shallow and self-indulgent by comparison and in a direct comparison it's hard to believe they wouldn't suffer.
That's not to say Bolsover is vulnerable just to say I think it's not quite as safe as Alistair assumed.
To the original discussion I sort of feel like you've ended up at an argument that sort of agrees with my original point. If O'Mara and Pidcock were not elected for their personal vote but managed to increase the Labour vote share then Labour selecting someone like O'Mara or Pidcock is hardly likely to be a bigger negative than them replacing Skinner with someone else, it'll be a loss whoever but no more for it being someone left wing.
I think considering recent elections the idea that Labour voters are crying out for those good old centrist politicians rather than these dastardly left wingers is a little unlikely regardless of your personal opinions of left wingers.
But Skinner is a possible exception because he has been there so long and has hammered things around himself to such a degree.
(I don't think he would thank you for calling him a centrist either. Indeed the whole premise of my argument was that Labour would put a young left winger in to replace him as candidate, which is why it matters that with rare exceptions they come across as patronising and lazy idiots.)0 -
You're the one obsessing about Obama's father's origins - Obama himself was American (unless you're a birther, of course...)SouthamObserver said:Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.
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Obama is, like the vast majority of residents of the United States of America, descended from immigrants. Some recent, others not so. Some voluntary, some ‘unwilling'.ydoethur said:
I don't think he would thank you for calling him an African. As he patiently out to the birther movement, he was a natural born American.SouthamObserver said:Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.
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Good morning, everyone.
F1: still no sign of spreads up. I may wait a few days before deciding whether to put up a final pre-season ramble.
On-topic: it's remarkable what the worst campaign in modern British political history and the media deciding "Will you keep your allotment?" is an appropriate line of questioning can do for public opinion.
The Conservatives need to be wary they don't repeat the mistake of thinking they simply need to turn up to win. Even a half-decent campaign would've given them a solid working majority.0 -
Some inverted commas missing, I think.ydoethur said:
I don't think he would thank you for calling him an African. As he patiently out to the birther movement, he was a natural born American.SouthamObserver said:Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.
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Tell that to our foreign secretaryCarlottaVance said:
You're the one obsessing about Obama's father's origins - Obama himself was American (unless you're a birther, of course...)SouthamObserver said:Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-suggests-part-kenyan-obama-may-have-an-ancestral-dislike-of-britain-a6995826.html
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Am I right in thinking that the demographics in Bolsover are changing. After all, there are no mines there any more, so any ‘miners’ are former or retired.ydoethur said:
It is true personal votes matter less than was once thought. Look at Twickenham.TheJezziah said:
To the original discussion I sort of feel like you've ended up at an argument that sort of agrees with my original point. If O'Mara and Pidcock were not elected for their personal vote but managed to increase the Labour vote share then Labour selecting someone like O'Mara or Pidcock is hardly likely to be a bigger negative than them replacing Skinner with someone else, it'll be a loss whoever but no more for it being someone left wing.ydoethur said:
I doubt very much if people who spend so much time away from the Commons (including missing a key vote to take a birthday holiday) will fare well next time. As May found out the voters don't like being taken for granted.TheJezziah said:
I'm pretty sure both oversaw increases in the Labour vote. Although there's a good chance given the current negativity O'Mara could see a decrease next time, the longer the parliament goes the better for him.ydoethur said:With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.
There could be a loss due to personal vote but not enough to make the difference unless other factors intervene I'd imagine.
The key thing about Skinner has always been his dedication (although it's decreasing as he ages). The current crop of left wingers come across as shallow and self-indulgent by comparison and in a direct comparison it's hard to believe they wouldn't suffer.
That's not to say Bolsover is vulnerable just to say I think it's not quite as safe as Alistair assumed.
I think considering recent elections the idea that Labour voters are crying out for those good old centrist politicians rather than these dastardly left wingers is a little unlikely regardless of your personal opinions of left wingers.
But Skinner is a possible exception because he has been there so long and has hammered things around himself to such a degree.
(I don't think he would thank you for calling him a centrist either. Indeed the whole premise of my argument was that Labour would put a young left winger in to replace him as candidate, which is why it matters that with rare exceptions they come across as patronising and lazy idiots.)0 -
Also a survey of economists on the proposition "imposing new US tariffs on steel and aluminum will improve Americans’ welfare": http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/steel-and-aluminum-tariffsrcs1000 said:Interesting piece on the impact of Trump's aluminium and steel tariffs:
https://qz.com/1220847/what-trumps-tariff-trade-war-could-mean-for-you-higher-prices-layoffs-and-economic-nosedives/
Economists split between "disagree" and "disagree strongly".
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I have swung to the "I wont vote Tory again until they stop cutting benefits for those who actually need it, (especially the disabled)" party0
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Very long, and rather interesting New Yorker article on Reddit and the politics of social media:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/03/19/reddit-and-the-struggle-to-detoxify-the-internet
“Does free speech mean literally anyone can say anything at any time?” Tidwell continued. “Or is it actually more conducive to the free exchange of ideas if we create a platform where women and people of color can say what they want without thousands of people screaming, ‘Fuck you, light yourself on fire, I know where you live’? If your entire answer to that very difficult question is ‘Free speech,’ then, I’m sorry, that tells me that you’re not really paying attention.”...0 -
The clearest cut cases last time for a personal vote that I spotted while putting this map together were Rob Marris in Wolverhampton South West and Paul Scully in Sutton & Cheam. Mhairi Black also relatively bucked the trend sharply.
Most other meaningful swings could be largely explained through other means.0 -
I thought they couldn't vote anyway?OldKingCole said:
Am I right in thinking that the demographics in Bolsover are changing. After all, there are no mines there any more, so any ‘miners’ are former or retired.ydoethur said:
It is true personal votes matter less than was once thought. Look at Twickenham.TheJezziah said:
To the original discussion I sort of feel like you've ended up at an argument that sort of agrees with my original point. If O'Mara and Pidcock were not elected for their personal vote but managed to increase the Labour vote share then Labour selecting someone like O'Mara or Pidcock is hardly likely to be a bigger negative than them replacing Skinner with someone else, it'll be a loss whoever but no more for it being someone left wing.ydoethur said:
I doubt very much if people who spend so much time away from the Commons (including missing a key vote to take a birthday holiday) will fare well next time. As May found out the voters don't like being taken for granted.TheJezziah said:
I'm pretty sure both oversaw increases in the Labour vote. Although there's a good chance given the current negativity O'Mara could see a decrease next time, the longer the parliament goes the better for him.ydoethur said:With reference to Bolsover, it seems very likely there will be a new candidate next time. Does anyone think that might have a significant impact given the incumbent is noted as a very dedicated constituency MP? If he was replaced by a time server like Pidcock or O'Mara I'm thinking Bolsover might just be vulnerable.
There could be a loss due to personal vote but not enough to make the difference unless other factors intervene I'd imagine.
The key thing about Skinner has always been his dedication (although it's decreasing as he ages). The current crop of left wingers come across as shallow and self-indulgent by comparison and in a direct comparison it's hard to believe they wouldn't suffer.
That's not to say Bolsover is vulnerable just to say I think it's not quite as safe as Alistair assumed.
I think considering recent elections the idea that Labour voters are crying out for those good old centrist politicians rather than these dastardly left wingers is a little unlikely regardless of your personal opinions of left wingers.
But Skinner is a possible exception because he has been there so long and has hammered things around himself to such a degree.
(I don't think he would thank you for calling him a centrist either. Indeed the whole premise of my argument was that Labour would put a young left winger in to replace him as candidate, which is why it matters that with rare exceptions they come across as patronising and lazy idiots.)0 -
Anyone who has followed our test team knows that is seldom true.Foxy said:
And impossible to ignore that Britons swing both ways!JackW said:Fascinating thread map. Interesting to note that we are a largely a nation of big swingers with a strong cluster around the south east Midlands close to Bedford and those pesky LibDems swinging the most.
Might be worthy of an insightful thread from OGH himself ....
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We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?0
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I live there and so was I. I'll say this, the local labour groups here have become much more active and effective since Corbyn took over. Here, at least, the Corbynite influx have put the hours in and been useful. They are now second in many areas they used to be 4th or worse.rkrkrk said:Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.0 -
Latest polling on the PA 18th District Special Election
Lamb (D) 51 .. Saccone (R) 45
Monmouth Uni. Sample 503
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_031218/0 -
The METTHs, the METTHs, won't someone think of the METTHs?!?
Good work on the map, thanks.0 -
The LibDem vote died on its arse though in the SW. I suspect some people have been LibDem voters for so long, they'd forgotten whether they were always LibDem, or just lent their Labour vote to them. But we found quite a few newly loud and proud Labour in Torbay. Still third, but they have gone from 20% behind the LibDems to under 7%kle4 said:
I live there and so was I. I'll say this, the local labour groups here have become much more active and effective since Corbyn took over. Here, at least, the Corbynite influx have put the hours in and been useful. They are now second in many areas they used to be 4th or worse.rkrkrk said:Love the map. Really shows how Ruth Davidson changed the story!
Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.0 -
The complaint about Obama's background from some groups was that it was more American Dream than Black Struggle.OldKingCole said:
Obama is, like the vast majority of residents of the United States of America, descended from immigrants. Some recent, others not so. Some voluntary, some ‘unwilling'.ydoethur said:
I don't think he would thank you for calling him an African. As he patiently out to the birther movement, he was a natural born American.SouthamObserver said:Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.
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The UK's last deep coal mine - Kellingly Colliery - was capped off in 2016. So apart from open cast, all miners are now former or retired. But given the pneumoconiosis and other mining-related health issues, I suspect many former miners are now underground permanently. A dying breed.OldKingCole said:
Am I right in thinking that the demographics in Bolsover are changing. After all, there are no mines there any more, so any ‘miners’ are former or retired.0 -
Excluding Scotland the biggest swing to Labour was in London, full of students and renters and pro Remain and the Midlands saw the biggest swing to the Tories with plenty of lower middle class and working class Brexiteers there0
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Incidentally, it seems that Lauren Southern was barred from the UK for hate speech, specifically sharing leaflets that proclaimed Allah was gay.
https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/9733253640711413820 -
I grew up in the South Staffs coalfield. Our miners didn't retire for long - if they even made retirement. Of course, not all those in the mining industry were underground workers.MarqueeMark said:
The UK's last deep coal mine - Kellingly Colliery - was capped off in 2016. So apart from open cast, all miners are now former or retired. But given the pneumoconiosis and other mining-related health issues, I suspect many former miners are now underground permanently. A dying breed.OldKingCole said:
Am I right in thinking that the demographics in Bolsover are changing. After all, there are no mines there any more, so any ‘miners’ are former or retired.0 -
This would be the same US President who backed Brexit after his predecessor said the UK would 'go to the back of the queue' by voting Leave and who restored the bust of Winston Churchill his predecessor removed?SouthamObserver said:We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?
Corbyn is anti West and anti capitalist rather than anti UK as such, he still technically backs the Union with Scotland and Wales for example albeit in part because there are a majority of non Tory MPs in both countries0 -
Surely Trump is only waiting for a statement from Britain First, his go to source for matters Brit?SouthamObserver said:The President of France expresses solidarity with the UK, as does the US Secretary of State. Spot the difference?
Within minutes of Moslem terrorist attacks on the UK President Trump is Tweeting. Days after Russian attacks, nothing. Once again, he’s demonstrating that he’s the most anti-UK president in living memory. It’s amazing what leeway a Churchill bust and the right colour skin can buy you!0 -
Mr. Divvie, he might be waiting a while. Aren't the leaders currently incarcerated?0
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The US Secretary of State from the Trump administration strongly condemned the Russian attack this morning.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - anyone hoping for the kind of US backing of the UK that would have been automatic from any other American president after a Russian attack on British soil that may have had as many as 500 victims will be sorely disappointed. But, hey, the bloke’s put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office and he’s not an uppity African, so all is well.williamglenn said:I see Donald Trump has responded overnight to the news about Russia.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973360355790479361?s=210 -
Most of the ones I knew from the Notts and Yorkshire coalfields were aboveground workers. I did know the average ratio for aboveground to belowground workers, but I've forgotten it.John_M said:
I grew up in the South Staffs coalfield. Our miners didn't retire for long - if they even made retirement. Of course, not all those in the mining industry were underground workers.MarqueeMark said:
The UK's last deep coal mine - Kellingly Colliery - was capped off in 2016. So apart from open cast, all miners are now former or retired. But given the pneumoconiosis and other mining-related health issues, I suspect many former miners are now underground permanently. A dying breed.OldKingCole said:
Am I right in thinking that the demographics in Bolsover are changing. After all, there are no mines there any more, so any ‘miners’ are former or retired.
I knew three ex-miners particularly well. Two were told at school there was little point in teaching them, as they'd end up in the mine (this is late 1970s). They both became digger drivers on the surface.
The third is a much more interesting case. He used the opportunity to get trained in everything he could at the mine, and then when the closures came, he had lots of transferrable skills in everything from railway maintenance to machinery and excavator working and maintenance.
Guess which one did rather well in life, and which two have spent half their adult lives on the sick? All three are very nice men, but two were utterly let down by the system.0 -
Trump has exempted Australian steel from tariffs, he may do the same for the UK.SouthamObserver said:Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.
It is Mexican, Canadian, Chinese and EU steel he is focused on0 -
Yep, like Putin Trump backed Brexit. Funny that. As you point out, putting a bust of Churchill in the Oval Office has bought an awful lot of leeway for a US president who imposes trade sanctions on the UK and remains silent when the Russians launch an attack on British soil that may have affected up to 500 people and left a number in critical condition.HYUFD said:
This would be the same US President who backed Brexit after his predecessor said the UK would 'go to the back of the queue' by voting Leave and who restored the bust of Winston Churchill his predecessor removed?SouthamObserver said:We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?
Corbyn is anti West and anti capitalist rather than anti UK as such, he still technically backs the Union with Scotland and Wales for example albeit in part because there are a majority of non Tory MPs in both countries
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Perhaps you could remind us of the comments of Frau Merkel in your review?SouthamObserver said:We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?
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Good post.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, like Putin Trump backed Brexit. Funny that. As you point out, putting a bust of Churchill in the Oval Office has bought an awful lot of leeway for a US president who imposes trade sanctions on the UK and remains silent when the Russians launch an attack on British soil that may have affected up to 500 people and left a number in critical condition.HYUFD said:
This would be the same US President who backed Brexit after his predecessor said the UK would 'go to the back of the queue' by voting Leave and who restored the bust of Winston Churchill his predecessor removed?SouthamObserver said:We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?
Corbyn is anti West and anti capitalist rather than anti UK as such, he still technically backs the Union with Scotland and Wales for example albeit in part because there are a majority of non Tory MPs in both countries0 -
A slick operation like BF is bound to have bright sparks ready to take up the baton. Or perhaps they can smuggle out a message from whichever UK equivalent of Landsberg the martyrs are held in.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Divvie, he might be waiting a while. Aren't the leaders currently incarcerated?
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If he exempts the UK from steel tariffs the EU are going to take him to the WTO for discrimination. Popcorn time!HYUFD said:
Trump has exempted Australian steel from tariffs, he may do the same for the UK.SouthamObserver said:Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.
It is Mexican, Canadian, Chinese and EU steel he is focused on0 -
Has Putin offered us a trade deal like Trump? No. Putin also backed Corbyn and Tsipras.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, like Putin Trump backed Brexit. Funny that. As you point out, putting a bust of Churchill in the Oval Office has bought an awful lot of leeway for a US president who imposes trade sanctions on the UK and remains silent when the Russians launch an attack on British soil that may have affected up to 500 people and left a number in critical condition.HYUFD said:
This would be the same US President who backed Brexit after his predecessor said the UK would 'go to the back of the queue' by voting Leave and who restored the bust of Winston Churchill his predecessor removed?SouthamObserver said:We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?
Corbyn is anti West and anti capitalist rather than anti UK as such, he still technically backs the Union with Scotland and Wales for example albeit in part because there are a majority of non Tory MPs in both countries
It is also not yet certain we will get tariffs beyond those we already face on steel exports to the US, it is Mexican and Brazilian and Chinese and EU imports Trump is focused on reducing.
As stated the Secretary of State of the Trump administration strongly condemned the Russian attack this morning and promised the UK the administration's full support.0 -
Mr. HYUFD, hmm. The UK is in the EU, though. And currently in the customs union. Is it possible for separate tariffs to be applied to EU countries?
Mr. Divvie, sparks, perhaps. Not so sure about the bright part.0 -
Perhaps but that would seal the fact he is not anti BritishSandpit said:
If he exempts the UK from steel tariffs the EU are going to take him to the WTO for discrimination. Popcorn time!HYUFD said:
Trump has exempted Australian steel from tariffs, he may do the same for the UK.SouthamObserver said:Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.
It is Mexican, Canadian, Chinese and EU steel he is focused on0 -
That looks incorrect.HYUFD said:
Trump has exempted Australian steel from tariffs, he may do the same for the UK.SouthamObserver said:Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.
It is Mexican, Canadian, Chinese and EU steel he is focused on
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will start in 15 days with initial exemptions for Canada and Mexico
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tariffs/trumps-steel-aluminum-tariffs-exempt-canada-mexico-idUSKCN1GK2W60 -
Only because he has said he wants to redraft NAFTA first. If not they will also gave tariffs, hence the words 'initial exemptions'logical_song said:
That looks incorrect.HYUFD said:
Trump has exempted Australian steel from tariffs, he may do the same for the UK.SouthamObserver said:Imagine the frothing fury of the Tory right if uppity African Barack Obama had imposed trade tariffs on British steel and offered not a word of support following a Russian attack on the UK.
It is Mexican, Canadian, Chinese and EU steel he is focused on
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will start in 15 days with initial exemptions for Canada and Mexico
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tariffs/trumps-steel-aluminum-tariffs-exempt-canada-mexico-idUSKCN1GK2W60 -
What trade deal has Trump offered us?HYUFD said:
Has Putin offered us a trade deal like Trump? No. Putin also backed Corbyn and Tsipras.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, like Putin Trump backed Brexit. Funny that. As you point out, putting a bust of Churchill in the Oval Office has bought an awful lot of leeway for a US president who imposes trade sanctions on the UK and remains silent when the Russians launch an attack on British soil that may have affected up to 500 people and left a number in critical condition.HYUFD said:
This would be the same US President who backed Brexit after his predecessor said the UK would 'go to the back of the queue' by voting Leave and who restored the bust of Winston Churchill his predecessor removed?SouthamObserver said:We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?
Corbyn is anti West and anti capitalist rather than anti UK as such, he still technically backs the Union with Scotland and Wales for example albeit in part because there are a majority of non Tory MPs in both countries
It is also not yet certain we will get tariffs beyond those we already face on steel exports to the US, it is Mexican and Brazilian and Chinese and EU imports Trump is focused on reducing.
As stated the Secretary of State of the Trump administration strongly condemned the Russian attack this morning and promised the UK the administration's full support.
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I was rejecting the idea that centrists look any better to the electorate (if anything worse) than left wingers rather than calling Skinner himself a centrist.ydoethur said:
It is true personal votes matter less than was once thought. Look at Twickenham.TheJezziah said:
I get the feeling with Pidcock the dislike is mainly from those not voting Labour anyway.ydoethur said:
O'Mara yes. Didn't realise Pidcock did. She also of course lost her safe council seat weeks beforehand suggesting her personal qualities were not behind any increase in her vote.TheJezziah said:ydoethur said:
I doubt very much if people who spend so much time away from the Commons (including missing a key vote to take a birthday holiday) will fare well next time. As May found out the voters don't like being taken for granted.
The key thing about Skinner has always been his dedication (although it's decreasing as he ages). The current crop of left wingers come across as shallow and self-indulgent by comparison and in a direct comparison it's hard to believe they wouldn't suffer.
That's not to say Bolsover is vulnerable just to say I think it's not quite as safe as Alistair assumed.
To the original discussion I sort of feel like you've ended up at an argument that sort of agrees with my original point. If O'Mara and Pidcock were not elected for their personal vote but managed to increase the Labour vote share then Labour selecting someone like O'Mara or Pidcock is hardly likely to be a bigger negative than them replacing Skinner with someone else, it'll be a loss whoever but no more for it being someone left wing.
I think considering recent elections the idea that Labour voters are crying out for those good old centrist politicians rather than these dastardly left wingers is a little unlikely regardless of your personal opinions of left wingers.
But Skinner is a possible exception because he has been there so long and has hammered things around himself to such a degree.
(I don't think he would thank you for calling him a centrist either. Indeed the whole premise of my argument was that Labour would put a young left winger in to replace him as candidate, which is why it matters that with rare exceptions they come across as patronising and lazy idiots.)
Basically to go back to your original argument Labour will do no worse (they'll actually do better) replacing Skinner with a left winger than a centrist when you consider what the electorate make of the failures of those politics.0 -
Does he?HYUFD said:
Has Putin offered us a trade deal like Trump? No. Putin also backed Corbyn and Tsipras.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, like Putin Trump backed Brexit. Funny that. As you point out, putting a bust of Churchill in the Oval Office has bought an awful lot of leeway for a US president who imposes trade sanctions on the UK and remains silent when the Russians launch an attack on British soil that may have affected up to 500 people and left a number in critical condition.HYUFD said:
This would be the same US President who backed Brexit after his predecessor said the UK would 'go to the back of the queue' by voting Leave and who restored the bust of Winston Churchill his predecessor removed?SouthamObserver said:We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?
Corbyn is anti West and anti capitalist rather than anti UK as such, he still technically backs the Union with Scotland and Wales for example albeit in part because there are a majority of non Tory MPs in both countries
It is also not yet certain we will get tariffs beyond those we already face on steel exports to the US, it is Mexican and Brazilian and Chinese and EU imports Trump is focused on reducing.
As stated the Secretary of State of the Trump administration strongly condemned the Russian attack this morning and promised the UK the administration's full support.
0
