politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections Preview: December 5th 2013
Riverside (Lab Defence) and Splott (Lab Defence) on Cardiff
Result of last election (2012): Lab 46, Lib Dem 16, Con 7, Ind 3, Plaid 2, Heath Independents 1 (Labour overall majority of 17)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes Elected
Comments
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I'm still waiting on the Yougov poll. Will probably be a rogue but will send Miliband into a panicked press conference where he promises a 2015 price freeze on Wensleydale.
Oh...and FIRST!0 -
Is it all unravelling yet?0
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Not yet....labour's poster on the other hand is a different matter.DaemonBarber said:Is it all unravelling yet?
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One thing I am very surprised about, although I don't think these things should matter a jot, is the lack of comments from tim about Osborne's change of hairstyle...
It looks terrible, like a wig, or 50 year old womans barnet... definitely trying to cover up the receding hairline0 -
I wonder how far the weather will reduce the turnout at Swanscombe on Dartford and South Woodham, Elmwood and Woodville on Chelmsford.0
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Good evening, everyone.
Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for this.
Still have to trawl through the links to get here.0 -
YouGov pretty much has to be a rogue whatever it is. Last 6 weeks have been incredibly stable.
Average YouGov Lab lead each week for the last 6 weeks - oldest first (ie each figure is the average of 5 polls):
6.4
7.0
6.2
7.8
6.6
7.2
6.7 (this week so far - ie 3 polls).0 -
Three little words: Just For Men.isam said:One thing I am very surprised about, although I don't think these things should matter a jot, is the lack of comments from tim about Osborne's change of hairstyle...
It looks terrible, like a wig, or 50 year old womans barnet... definitely trying to cover up the receding hairline0 -
Mr. Antifrank, when I was at school some uncouth youths bought a Physics teacher some of that. He looked rather hurt.
Cunningly, I'm going bald, so I'll never need any.0 -
At my school the kids set the physics teacher's hair on fireMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Antifrank, when I was at school some uncouth youths bought a Physics teacher some of that. He looked rather hurt.
Cunningly, I'm going bald, so I'll never need any.0 -
Tim lad,this should get you going ;-)tim said:isam said:One thing I am very surprised about, although I don't think these things should matter a jot, is the lack of comments from tim about Osborne's change of hairstyle...
It looks terrible, like a wig, or 50 year old womans barnet... definitely trying to cover up the receding hairline
It's inspired by this site
http://footballersthatlooklikelesbians.tumblr.com/
http://order-order.com/2013/12/05/ids-responds-to-balls-jibe/0 -
At my school the physics teacher set himself on fire!Scott_P said:
At my school the kids set the physics teacher's hair on fireMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Antifrank, when I was at school some uncouth youths bought a Physics teacher some of that. He looked rather hurt.
Cunningly, I'm going bald, so I'll never need any.0 -
At my school we set the physics dept on fire...nigel4england said:
At my school the physics teacher set himself on fire!Scott_P said:
At my school the kids set the physics teacher's hair on fireMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Antifrank, when I was at school some uncouth youths bought a Physics teacher some of that. He looked rather hurt.
Cunningly, I'm going bald, so I'll never need any.
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Independent front page -Osborne kicks labour where it hurts.
twitter.com/suttonnick/status/408707083811315713/photo/1/large0 -
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Autumn statement: the IT angle0
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That is very sad. Poor woman.Next said:0 -
Over a period of weeks, we reduced our biology master’s favourite tweed jacket to a moth eaten rag by sprinkling the back of his chair and desk with conc sulphuric acid.nigel4england said:
At my school the physics teacher set himself on fire!Scott_P said:
At my school the kids set the physics teacher's hair on fireMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Antifrank, when I was at school some uncouth youths bought a Physics teacher some of that. He looked rather hurt.
Cunningly, I'm going bald, so I'll never need any.
Long dead no doubt, but Sorry Mr Trotter…!
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Autumn statement: no big winners, but Ed Balls is the clearest loser
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/05/autumn-statement-george-osborne-ed-balls0 -
I'd assumed Osborne's new hair do was inspired by Lloyd Christmas.0
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@tnewtondunn: "He f***** it up," said a Labour MP on Ed Balls - and a shadow cabinet member also told us today he has to go; http://t.co/mFGnbR4Fcz0
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Looks like Mandela has died.
No official confirmation yet0 -
He's been dead for some time, just not switched off. Why now?TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like Mandela has died.
No official confirmation yet
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Not so much a case of had a good run in the case of Mandela, more one hell of a run.0
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@tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 12 point lead - biggest since May. CON 29%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%...0
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Nelson Mandela died tonight.0
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Now officially confirmed, Mandela has died.0
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And the largest UKIP percentage for some time.Scott_P said:@tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 12 point lead - biggest since May. CON 29%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%...
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Nelson Mandela died
Perhaps fate is teaching George a lesson for his tasteless T shirt.
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One of the things this country can truly be proud of, is the fact it was the home of the Anti-Apartheid movement.
I always found it amusing, that it was a Cape-Coloured, Basil D'Oliveria, who inadvertently made people in this country realise just how vile apartheid was.0 -
The two great ones have gone this year ;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/margaret-thatcher/9997714/Margaret-Thatchers-vital-role-in-ending-apartheid.html
I'm glad that they became friends.
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RIP Nelson Mandela, one of the greatest figures of the 20th century0
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Wow, how long until this became partisan. That was about 5 minutes.0
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZjwCmJrnlY
I have no other opinion. Let Sarf-Arikha and the Marxist-Media Wing (Al-Beeb) mourn.
To the family: Do your best at this moment. To Mugabe: ....0 -
SKY - Nelson Mandela has died, South African President Jacob Zuma has confirmed.
http://news.sky.com/story/1178430/nelson-mandela-dies-president-confirms0 -
It was 15% in Sunday's YouGov, and 14% last Friday, so not so.MikeK said:
And the largest UKIP percentage for some time.Scott_P said:@tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 12 point lead - biggest since May. CON 29%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%...
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Very sad that whilst most of us mark the passing of a great man, Roger and Tim (in contrast to the rest of the admirable clutch of left of centre commentators here) look at it as an opportunity to bash their political opponents.0
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Roger said:
@DiCanio
"I'm glad that they became friends."
if they became friends it does nothing but show Mandela's great powers of forgiveness to one of the few leaders in the world who gave succour to apartheid</blockquot
Lets cut to the chase. What actually have you done for anyone Roger, really?
Anything for womens rights at all for example?0 -
Huw not wearing a black tie. If this were the Queen, heads would be rolling.0
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RIP Mandela, an incontravertibly great man.0
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Neither South African nor Marxist and I think Mandela was a man to be honoured and admired. There are very few people in this world today who have done more to try and create reconciliation between such bitter enemies in spite of having spent so much of his life under the cosh.FluffyThoughts said:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZjwCmJrnlY
I have no other opinion. Let Sarf-Arikha and the Marxist-Media Wing (Al-Beeb) mourn.
To the family: Do your best at this moment. To Mugabe: ....0 -
I stand corrected. I was abroad last week so didn't follow the local news.JohnLilburne said:
It was 15% in Sunday's YouGov, and 14% last Friday, so not so.MikeK said:
And the largest UKIP percentage for some time.Scott_P said:@tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 12 point lead - biggest since May. CON 29%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%...
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I feel the need to watch Invictus again. It is one of my favourite films. A truly remarkable man.
Domestic politics are trivial at a time like this but the chance, if there was one, of the Autumn statement being a gamechanger has just gone for a burton. Ho hum.0 -
I've just put that on.DavidL said:I feel the need to watch Invictus again. It is one of my favourite films. A truly remarkable man.
Domestic politics are trivial at a time like this but the chance, if there was one, of the Autumn statement being a gamechanger has just gone for a burton. Ho hum.
Great Minds Think Alike.0 -
Do we really need to cheapen a desperately sad occasion with point scoring and shall we pass a few hours noting Labour's questionable ties. No.Roger said:@DiCanio
"I'm glad that they became friends."
if they became friends it does nothing but show Mandela's great powers of forgiveness to one of the few leaders in the world who gave succour to apartheid
...............................................................
Mandela was a towering figure of the second half of the last century. Mankind was fortunate to have this great man bestride his country, his continent and the world.
RIP - Lion of Africa.
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I haven't seen it David - will try to dig it out on Sky Movies on your recommendation.DavidL said:I feel the need to watch Invictus again. It is one of my favourite films. A truly remarkable man.
Domestic politics are trivial at a time like this but the chance, if there was one, of the Autumn statement being a gamechanger has just gone for a burton. Ho hum.
Mandela RIP.0 -
I've enabled the dead to be buried by their families rather than in a ditch and even occasionally had the opportunity to ensure that those that might have died have lived. Ive stood out against those who are dictators within their countries and communities and pretty much got lucky to live for it.Roger said:@Yokel
"Lets cut to the chase. What actually have you done for anyone Roger, really?"
And you?
I've helped keep narrow minded bollocks like you safe in your beds.
And you? Did you once design a poster for a protest in Cannes against apartheid?0 -
South Africans were fortunate that they had Mandela and not Mugabe forming a government.
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Indeed. A remarkable example of sport being the catalyst to change the world.TheScreamingEagles said:One of the things this country can truly be proud of, is the fact it was the home of the Anti-Apartheid movement.
I always found it amusing, that it was a Cape-Coloured, Basil D'Oliveria, who inadvertently made people in this country realise just how vile apartheid was.
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Youguv I suspect is due to the government wanting to increase the age when one can draw a pension.
And if the government carries on talking about what it wants to talk about and ignores what the people want to hear about,ie,cost of living,the Tories will sink further.0 -
Wealden open primary round 1 Tony Caldiera eliminated0
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It's surely just an outlier.SMukesh said:Youguv I suspect is due to the government wanting to increase the age when one can draw a pension.
And if the government carries on talking about what it wants to talk about and ignores what the people want to hear about,ie,cost of living,the Tories will sink further.0 -
Nelson was indeed a generation-defining figure for Generation X, defeater of an evil regime that younger people can barely imagine existed. A truly great man who had a long, wonderful life. We will never see his like again0
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More polls needed but it does seem KIP may be the beneficiary of some sort of immigration bounce. We shall see.tim said:
Three high UKIP scores recently, Lynton Crosby doing the job on immigrationBobajob said:
It's surely just an outlier.SMukesh said:Youguv I suspect is due to the government wanting to increase the age when one can draw a pension.
And if the government carries on talking about what it wants to talk about and ignores what the people want to hear about,ie,cost of living,the Tories will sink further.0 -
RIP Mandela0
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I think people on the right underestimate the degree of loathing for Thatcher's pro apartheid policies from those on the left.
For many it overrides all other considerations of her and her works. It would be ridiculous on a politics site not to acknowledge that one of Mandela's most magnanimous gestures was to forgive people like Thatcher and her party for their wholehearted and sickening support for white minority rule. Even Nick Robinson is touching on it.0 -
And Osborne doing the job on the economy, good time for UKIPtim said:
Three high UKIP scores recently, Lynton Crosby doing the job on immigrationBobajob said:
It's surely just an outlier.SMukesh said:Youguv I suspect is due to the government wanting to increase the age when one can draw a pension.
And if the government carries on talking about what it wants to talk about and ignores what the people want to hear about,ie,cost of living,the Tories will sink further.0 -
Think jack w appears to have summed it up suitably0
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Great respect and admiration for Mandela and his ability to reconcile disparate humans and his humility, his ability not to show any animus to those who ill treated him. I am glad an old man is allowed to pass on from our world, leaving it a better place and inspiring millions.0
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Oddly enough this was the first story on Thatcher meets Mandela via a search on Google.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/nov/28/nelson-mandela-margaret-thatcher-meeting
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Roger, cut the crap – your squalid use of Mandela’s death as a political stick just moments after his death was announced says more about you than Thatcher.Roger said:
I think people on the right underestimate the degree of loathing for Thatcher's pro apartheid policies from those on the left.
For many it overrides all other considerations of her and her works. It would be ridiculous on a politics site not to acknowledge that one of Mandela's most magnanimous gestures was to forgive people like Thatcher and her party for their wholehearted and sickening support for white minority rule. Even Nick Robinson is touching on it.0 -
RIP Mandela
Good Luck to South Africa. I hope this doesn't cause great destabilisation there, he was in part holding the country together.0 -
I joined the embassy protest for a few stints in the mid/late 80s. Then in '89 went over to Berlin when the wall came down (I still have my bits of it). Then Mandela was released. I remember it as a hopeful time - it felt like anything could happen - but maybe that was just because I was young.
Obama on tv.0 -
I first went to South Africa a few weeks after the election won by Nelson Mandela in 1994. I got a very cheap deal on flights and hotels because there were such expectations of violent conflict.
Instead it was the most amazing atmosphere of relief that it had all gone off so peacefully. I remember having a braai with a party of Afrikaaners who were so excited by the change for the better in their country.
RIP Nelson Mandela, the man who was famous for his forgiveness and reaching out to his enemies. Something that we could all learn from.
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You utter fool. You are not of the left. You are a class apart, a luvvie who feels the pain of the working class as you sip your frapacino and get what little you know of the world from the pages of the Guardian.Roger said:
I think people on the right underestimate the degree of loathing for Thatcher's pro apartheid policies from those on the left.
For many it overrides all other considerations of her and her works. It would be ridiculous on a politics site not to acknowledge that one of Mandela's most magnanimous gestures was to forgive people like Thatcher and her party for their wholehearted and sickening support for white minority rule. Even Nick Robinson is touching on it.
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It's really great. Putting aside the absurdity of Matt Damon being a rugby forward it is near perfect. In my opinion Morgan Freeman's greatest performance. Directed by Clint Eastwood.Bobajob said:
I haven't seen it David - will try to dig it out on Sky Movies on your recommendation.DavidL said:I feel the need to watch Invictus again. It is one of my favourite films. A truly remarkable man.
Domestic politics are trivial at a time like this but the chance, if there was one, of the Autumn statement being a gamechanger has just gone for a burton. Ho hum.
Mandela RIP.
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Our's as well TSE. Our's as well.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've just put that on.DavidL said:I feel the need to watch Invictus again. It is one of my favourite films. A truly remarkable man.
Domestic politics are trivial at a time like this but the chance, if there was one, of the Autumn statement being a gamechanger has just gone for a burton. Ho hum.
Great Minds Think Alike.
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Thanks DavidDavidL said:
It's really great. Putting aside the absurdity of Matt Damon being a rugby forward it is near perfect. In my opinion Morgan Freeman's greatest performance. Directed by Clint Eastwood.Bobajob said:
I haven't seen it David - will try to dig it out on Sky Movies on your recommendation.DavidL said:I feel the need to watch Invictus again. It is one of my favourite films. A truly remarkable man.
Domestic politics are trivial at a time like this but the chance, if there was one, of the Autumn statement being a gamechanger has just gone for a burton. Ho hum.
Mandela RIP.
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And how did Thatcher's government change existing policy towards South Africa ?Roger said:
I think people on the right underestimate the degree of loathing for Thatcher's pro apartheid policies from those on the left.
For many it overrides all other considerations of her and her works. It would be ridiculous on a politics site not to acknowledge that one of Mandela's most magnanimous gestures was to forgive people like Thatcher and her party for their wholehearted and sickening support for white minority rule. Even Nick Robinson is touching on it.
That's right it didn't.
Curious how you're not offended by the South African policy of the Labour governments of 1974-1979 and 1964-1970.
But then you don't give a toss about South Africans of any variety.
Labour, the party that plotted to 'make the white folk angry'.
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Wealden open primary: Won on second round by Nus Ghani0
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@SimonStC
Like a lot of others I spent a lot of my youth on anti apartheid marches and to have Thatcher as one of only two world leaders in support was difficult to accept
From @DrSpyn's article
"Nelson Mandela was "furious" when a top adviser stopped him meeting Margaret Thatcher two months after his historic release from prison.
A confidential US embassy cable says Mandela, visiting London in April 1990, was eager to spell out to Thatcher the recently unbanned African National Congress's objections to her policy on South Africa.
The Conservative prime minister had dismissed the ANC as "a typical terrorist organisation" and refused to back sanctions against the apartheid government, pursuing instead a policy of "constructive engagement". South Africa was then seen as a vital ally in stemming communist expansion."
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Obama nailing it in a way that none of our lot could0
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You have no answer do you Roger.
Empty vessel.0 -
Mandela was a great man who reached out to all and didn't try and attack people over very recent events.
Roger is a petty ... who is trying to use the death of an old man to attack a dead old woman. Wow done, I'm sure Mandela would be proud. Or maybe not. Sick.0 -
Labour on 41% - 12% ahead.
Wonder if Dan Hodges has had info from a nameless Tory insider showing a poll with the Tory Party 5% ahead?-1 -
Care to answer ARs question?Roger said:@SimonStC
Like a lot of others I spent a lot of my youth on anti apartheid marches and to have Thatcher as one of only two world leaders in support was difficult to accept
From @DrSpyn's article
"Nelson Mandela was "furious" when a top adviser stopped him meeting Margaret Thatcher two months after his historic release from prison.
A confidential US embassy cable says Mandela, visiting London in April 1990, was eager to spell out to Thatcher the recently unbanned African National Congress's objections to her policy on South Africa.
The Conservative prime minister had dismissed the ANC as "a typical terrorist organisation" and refused to back sanctions against the apartheid government, pursuing instead a policy of "constructive engagement". South Africa was then seen as a vital ally in stemming communist expansion."0 -
Thanks to Harry for his round up of today's elections . His summary of the 2 Cardiff wards is a little inaccurate . In 2008 all 3 Riverside seats were won by Plaid as were 2 of the 3 seats in 2004 . In Splott the Lib Dems won 2 of the 3 seats in 2004 but only one in 2008 . The Lib Dems have always polled poorly in Riverside and Plaid in Splott .0
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And pays for private medical insurance through Bupa so he doesn't have to suffer the vagaries of the NHS he so loves.saddened said:
You utter fool. You are not of the left. You are a class apart, a luvvie who feels the pain of the working class as you sip your frapacino and get what little you know of the world from the pages of the Guardian.Roger said:
I think people on the right underestimate the degree of loathing for Thatcher's pro apartheid policies from those on the left.
For many it overrides all other considerations of her and her works. It would be ridiculous on a politics site not to acknowledge that one of Mandela's most magnanimous gestures was to forgive people like Thatcher and her party for their wholehearted and sickening support for white minority rule. Even Nick Robinson is touching on it.0 -
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Plato's next MP will almost certainly be an Asian woman. Quite a feat getting selected in what has always been a very traditionally conservative area:
"Nusrat Ghani selected as Wealden Conservative candidate and likely next Wealden MP:
twitter.com/DavidShawCTC/status/4087251468670812160 -
Paris Hilton mistakes Martin Luther King for Nelson Mandela
pic.twitter.com/yN0fAyXVq50 -
Champion.TheScreamingEagles said:Paris Hilton mistakes Martin Luther King for Nelson Mandela
pic.twitter.com/yN0fAyXVq50 -
If only our politicians who admired Mandela could imitate him more. His graciousness, his dignity, his conviction, and his seeking of reconciliation rather than division. Will we ever see another like him? RIP0
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Do you really follow Paris Hilton on twitter ???TheScreamingEagles said:Paris Hilton mistakes Martin Luther King for Nelson Mandela
pic.twitter.com/yN0fAyXVq5
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No, someone retweeted it.another_richard said:
Do you really follow Paris Hilton on twitter ???TheScreamingEagles said:Paris Hilton mistakes Martin Luther King for Nelson Mandela
pic.twitter.com/yN0fAyXVq5
I do have some standards you know!
Granted they are lower than everyone else's....0 -
And you always manage to live down to them ;-)TheScreamingEagles said:
No, someone retweeted it.another_richard said:
Do you really follow Paris Hilton on twitter ???TheScreamingEagles said:Paris Hilton mistakes Martin Luther King for Nelson Mandela
pic.twitter.com/yN0fAyXVq5
I do have some standards you know!
Granted they are lower than everyone else's....
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Mandela's death reminds us that the progressive wing of politics is the right and good one.
The Right, the Tories, those who hated Mandela and what he stood for can take a walk.
RIP.-1 -
The cricket isn't cancelled is it ??0
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Keep on plotting to 'make the white folk angry'.R0berts said:Mandela's death reminds us that the progressive wing of politics is the right and good one.
The Right, the Tories, those who hated Mandela and what he stood for can take a walk.
RIP.
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Leaders like Mandela only become apparent a few times a century. For me, he was one of the five greatest leaders of the 1900s. The world will see others like him but whether we will is another matter. That said, as true greatness can only be measured against tremendous challenges, perhaps it might be a good thing if we don't?tpfkar said:If only our politicians who admired Mandela could imitate him more. His graciousness, his dignity, his conviction, and his seeking of reconciliation rather than division. Will we ever see another like him? RIP
The world seems a smaller, greyer place this evening.0 -
I think that this statement just demonstrates how little that you understand about why Nelson Mandela was a great man.
It is because he did not rest in some "progressive" comfort zone, but rather tried to see the other sides point of view and successfully reached out to them.
Forgiveness in such circumstances is an amazing feat.R0berts said:Mandela's death reminds us that the progressive wing of politics is the right and good one.
The Right, the Tories, those who hated Mandela and what he stood for can take a walk.
RIP.0 -
Can posters mind their language please.
That includes words with asterisks.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgcTvoWjZJU#t=114
I didn't meet him, but I was in the room in 1997 in Edinburgh
RIP0