Mandela's death reminds us that the progressive wing of politics is the right and good one.
The Right, the Tories, those who hated Mandela and what he stood for can take a walk.
RIP.
What rubbish. You are as bad as Tim and Roger, There are many of us on the right who have nothing but the greatest respect for Mandela. Freedom from oppression is something that those on both the right and the left can believe in - and something that those on both the right and the left will often do their best to prevent and destroy.
Unless you are one of those fools who likes to play the 'who killed most' game then you should learn to understand that both sides of the political divide have their heroes and villains who are recognisable to all of us irrespective of our political alignment.
I think that this statement just demonstrates how little that you understand about why Nelson Mandela was a great man.
It is because he did not rest in some "progressive" comfort zone, but rather tried to see the other sides point of view and successfully reached out to them.
Forgiveness in such circumstances is an amazing feat.
If only our politicians who admired Mandela could imitate him more. His graciousness, his dignity, his conviction, and his seeking of reconciliation rather than division. Will we ever see another like him? RIP
Leaders like Mandela only become apparent a few times a century. For me, he was one of the five greatest leaders of the 1900s. The world will see others like him but whether we will is another matter. That said, as true greatness can only be measured against tremendous challenges, perhaps it might be a good thing if we don't?
The world seems a smaller, greyer place this evening.
Your five 20th century greats ; Churchill , Franklin Roosevelt , Thatcher , Reagan and Mandela ?
Really incredible to see who online is respectful towards Mandela and his life and death, and who (very few) are being so incredibly disrespectful and don't represent him at all by using this period of mourning for hatred. Speaks volumes. I hope you three sober up in the morning and hold your head in shame, I hope this isn't you sober as this is poor.
Labour hold Liverpool Riverside and Glasgow Shettleston no figures . Conservatives gain Nuneaton Arbury Con 395 Lab 369 UKIP 109 Green 56 BNP 35 TUSC 8 Eng Dem 6
Keep your gob shut and hang your head in shame, Mr Cameron. And lets not even start on Thatcher.
David Cameron accepted an all-expenses paid trip to apartheid South Africa while Nelson Mandela was still in prison, an updated biography of the Tory leader reveals today.
The trip by Mr Cameron in 1989, when he was a rising star of the Conservative Research Department, was a chance for him to "see for himself" and was funded by a firm that lobbied against the imposition of sanctions on the apartheid regime.
If only our politicians who admired Mandela could imitate him more. His graciousness, his dignity, his conviction, and his seeking of reconciliation rather than division. Will we ever see another like him? RIP
Leaders like Mandela only become apparent a few times a century. For me, he was one of the five greatest leaders of the 1900s. The world will see others like him but whether we will is another matter. That said, as true greatness can only be measured against tremendous challenges, perhaps it might be a good thing if we don't?
The world seems a smaller, greyer place this evening.
Your five 20th century greats ; Churchill , Franklin Roosevelt , Thatcher , Reagan and Mandela ?
If only our politicians who admired Mandela could imitate him more. His graciousness, his dignity, his conviction, and his seeking of reconciliation rather than division. Will we ever see another like him? RIP
Leaders like Mandela only become apparent a few times a century. For me, he was one of the five greatest leaders of the 1900s. The world will see others like him but whether we will is another matter. That said, as true greatness can only be measured against tremendous challenges, perhaps it might be a good thing if we don't?
The world seems a smaller, greyer place this evening.
Your five 20th century greats ; Churchill , Franklin Roosevelt , Thatcher , Reagan and Mandela ?
I think that this statement just demonstrates how little that you understand about why Nelson Mandela was a great man.
It is because he did not rest in some "progressive" comfort zone, but rather tried to see the other sides point of view and successfully reached out to them.
Forgiveness in such circumstances is an amazing feat.
If only our politicians who admired Mandela could imitate him more. His graciousness, his dignity, his conviction, and his seeking of reconciliation rather than division. Will we ever see another like him? RIP
Leaders like Mandela only become apparent a few times a century. For me, he was one of the five greatest leaders of the 1900s. The world will see others like him but whether we will is another matter. That said, as true greatness can only be measured against tremendous challenges, perhaps it might be a good thing if we don't?
The world seems a smaller, greyer place this evening.
Your five 20th century greats ; Churchill , Franklin Roosevelt , Thatcher , Reagan and Mandela ?
3/5. No Thatcher or Reagan. It's a high bar.
Higher than bringing down Communism and resulting in the fall of the Berlin wall? Pretty high then, curious who.
I think that this statement just demonstrates how little that you understand about why Nelson Mandela was a great man.
It is because he did not rest in some "progressive" comfort zone, but rather tried to see the other sides point of view and successfully reached out to them.
Forgiveness in such circumstances is an amazing feat.
If only our politicians who admired Mandela could imitate him more. His graciousness, his dignity, his conviction, and his seeking of reconciliation rather than division. Will we ever see another like him? RIP
Leaders like Mandela only become apparent a few times a century. For me, he was one of the five greatest leaders of the 1900s. The world will see others like him but whether we will is another matter. That said, as true greatness can only be measured against tremendous challenges, perhaps it might be a good thing if we don't?
The world seems a smaller, greyer place this evening.
Your five 20th century greats ; Churchill , Franklin Roosevelt , Thatcher , Reagan and Mandela ?
Ataturk would be a good choice but for his nationalism. He was certainly one of the most progressive leaders of the 20th century notably on women's rights
Mandela's death reminds us that the progressive wing of politics is the right and good one.
The Right, the Tories, those who hated Mandela and what he stood for can take a walk.
RIP.
It's regrettable IMO that you use Mandela's death to take a dig at people with whom you have political disagreements.
Yes of course. It's disrespectful to Nelson and his legacy to make political points against the forces of conservatism. That's right.
The ANC is a typical terrorist organisation ... Anyone who thinks it is going to run the government in South Africa is living in cloud-cuckoo land' - Margaret Thatcher, 1987
If only our politicians who admired Mandela could imitate him more. His graciousness, his dignity, his conviction, and his seeking of reconciliation rather than division. Will we ever see another like him? RIP
Leaders like Mandela only become apparent a few times a century. For me, he was one of the five greatest leaders of the 1900s. The world will see others like him but whether we will is another matter. That said, as true greatness can only be measured against tremendous challenges, perhaps it might be a good thing if we don't?
The world seems a smaller, greyer place this evening.
Your five 20th century greats ; Churchill , Franklin Roosevelt , Thatcher , Reagan and Mandela ?
Churchill, Roosevelt, Mandela, Gandhi, Ataturk.
4/5. Ataturk is a good shout but probably top 10 rather than top 5.
You'll have to wait until tomorrow for the fifth (Mike or substitute-Mike permitting). I've written a piece based on them.
If only our politicians who admired Mandela could imitate him more. His graciousness, his dignity, his conviction, and his seeking of reconciliation rather than division. Will we ever see another like him? RIP
Leaders like Mandela only become apparent a few times a century. For me, he was one of the five greatest leaders of the 1900s. The world will see others like him but whether we will is another matter. That said, as true greatness can only be measured against tremendous challenges, perhaps it might be a good thing if we don't?
The world seems a smaller, greyer place this evening.
Your five 20th century greats ; Churchill , Franklin Roosevelt , Thatcher , Reagan and Mandela ?
3/5. No Thatcher or Reagan. It's a high bar.
Gandhi , for sure. Martin Luther King ? Charles de Gaulle ?
Cardiff Riverside Labour hold Lab 1120 Plaid 773 Con 107 UKIP 97 TUSC 70 LD 58 Cardiff Splott Labour hold Lab 706 LD 604 UKIP 209 Ind 94 Con 86 TUSC 80
Strange one Mandela. You never hear a bad word against him and yet he was responsible for many innocent deaths with his bombing campaign.
The irony is had he been executed for his acts he'd be just another terrorist down the lines of history. But he wasn't and it was what followed afterwards and for the recent decades that he is a truly great man. By the time I was born we were already well past that turning point.
I don't think any of us that went on the marches, picketed the South African embassy etc back then actually realised just how great a man Mandela actually was; before he was free he was just a symbol. We all learned he was so much more and so did a lot of other people who maybe didn't see beyond the realpolitik of what was a very different time. A true hero has died after an epic life of monumental achievement. May he rest in peace.
It's a pity Mandela didn't stay on for a second term as president, even if it was only as a figurehead. Thambo Mbeki was an absolute disaster, particularly with his Aids nonsense.
It's a pity Mandela didn't stay on for a second term as president, even if it was only as a figurehead. Thambo Mbeki was an absolute disaster, particularly with his Aids nonsense.
"When the war of the giants is over the wars of the pygmies will begin."
Strange one Mandela. You never hear a bad word against him and yet he was responsible for many innocent deaths with his bombing campaign.
Huh ? What was the majority who had no democratic rights, no dignity, supposed to do ? Accept it.
No one could have reconciled such a fractured country better than the Great Man !
I suppose you can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs. I guess if killing innocent people is for the greater good then you have to turn a blind eye.
'Keep on plotting to 'make the white folk angry'."
Have you been drinking? You're one of the smartest posters on here but you keep posting the same irrelevant nonsensical quote.
My thanks for the compliment Roger.
But I think the quote is very relevant on a 'glass houses and stones' / 'motes and beams' basis.
Supporters of a party which was willing to racebait in a town with a history of racial problems are on slippery ground when it comes to accusations of racism.
Anyway I've said too much so all I'll say now is RIP and hopefully the world in general and South Africa in particular can perhaps take some inspiration from Mandela.
Glasgow Shettleston full result Lab 2025 SNP 1086 Con 225 UKIP 129 TUSC 68 Lib Dem 53 No Bedroon Tax 50 Green 41 Soc 35 Christian 34 Britannica 31 Dem 6
'Keep on plotting to 'make the white folk angry'."
Have you been drinking? You're one of the smartest posters on here but you keep posting the same irrelevant nonsensical quote.
My thanks for the compliment Roger.
But I think the quote is very relevant on a 'glass houses and stones' / 'motes and beams' basis.
Supporters of a party which was willing to racebait in a town with a history of racial problems are on slippery ground when it comes to accusations of racism.
Anyway I've said too much so all I'll say now is RIP and hopefully the world in general and South Africa in particular can perhaps take some inspiration from Mandela.
You're being hypercritical of Phil Woolas.
It's not like he held a racially sensitive post like Immigration Minister.
Cardiff Riverside Labour hold Lab 1120 Plaid 773 Con 107 UKIP 97 TUSC 70 LD 58 Cardiff Splott Labour hold Lab 706 LD 604 UKIP 209 Ind 94 Con 86 TUSC 80
No Plaid candidate in Splott? Riverside is the sort of area where the Lib Dems should get a decent vote in normal times. Splott much less so. Can only assume they had a strong local candidate.
Mandela was not great because he fought against left or right, because he fought against black or white. Mandela was great because he fought against hatred. We should all bear that in mind. Truly great man.
Cardiff Riverside Labour hold Lab 1120 Plaid 773 Con 107 UKIP 97 TUSC 70 LD 58 Cardiff Splott Labour hold Lab 706 LD 604 UKIP 209 Ind 94 Con 86 TUSC 80
No Plaid candidate in Splott? Riverside is the sort of area where the Lib Dems should get a decent vote in normal times. Splott much less so. Can only assume they had a strong local candidate.
Looks like UKIP aren't really penetrating the valley heartlands !
Very true. Behind bars he was mostly a symbol, his greatness only really came to light afterwards.
While the ANC was very heavily influenced by the Communists, Mandela knew that the key to South Africa remaining economically successful was to maintain a capitalist system.
Visiting South Africa now is a very different experience, with a lot more mixing of peoples, but I have been to places that time has passed by. I remember staying in a place in the Drakensberg where the host was a supporter of the AWB.
I don't think any of us that went on the marches, picketed the South African embassy etc back then actually realised just how great a man Mandela actually was; before he was free he was just a symbol. We all learned he was so much more and so did a lot of other people who maybe didn't see beyond the realpolitik of what was a very different time. A true hero has died after an epic life of monumental achievement. May he rest in peace.
Cardiff Riverside Labour hold Lab 1120 Plaid 773 Con 107 UKIP 97 TUSC 70 LD 58 Cardiff Splott Labour hold Lab 706 LD 604 UKIP 209 Ind 94 Con 86 TUSC 80
No Plaid candidate in Splott? Riverside is the sort of area where the Lib Dems should get a decent vote in normal times. Splott much less so. Can only assume they had a strong local candidate.
As posted above Plaid have won Riverside before in 2004 and 2008 , the Lib Dems have had councillors in Splott in 2004 ( 2 ) and 2008 ( 1 ) Lib Dems are weak in Riverside and Plaid in Splott .
Mandela's release from prison is one of the first political moments I can remember. We had relatives in South Africa so were very interested in what was happening there. Just months after the Berlin Wall came down and by the end of the year there was German reunification and Maggie was booted out of office. As a 7 year old those extraordinary events rather passed me by. Feels like politics has never really been as exciting since.
Churchill was briefly great in 1940-42, and the alternative of Lord Halifax who was likely to sue for peace in 1940 doesnt bear thinking about.
The rest of his political career is less distinguished. He opposed Indian independence, his misadventures in the first war, his arial gassing of the Kurds in 1922, are all much less impressive.
The transition of China under Deng Xiouping was truly remarkable in view of that country's history.
Interesting to see you adopting such a partisan stance rather than viewing humanity as a whole.
Sorry, Nelson was not an apolitical figure, and I don't think his memory would be best served by being apolitical about his death and legacy.
A period of reflection from your party, and your wing of politics would be best. Apologies as always to individual exceptions.
Mandela dearly liked Thatcher, try again. It was your lot supporting Communist terrorism which delayed the end of apartheid.
MK attacks responsble for around 130 deaths according to the (then) South African authorities.
130.
Far fewer than Amritsar, Dresden or Iraq.
130 deaths between 1976 and 1986. Mandela had already been on Robbin Island for a decade by then. None of the activity he was associated with before being arrested involved deaths and the South African authorities did not make any claims that anyone had died during the Rivonia Trials.
If anyone had died then you can be sure the authorities would have been shouting it from the rooftops.
"At the beginning of June 1961, after a long and anxious assessment of the South African situation, I, and some colleagues, came to the conclusion that as violence in this country was inevitable, it would be unrealistic and wrong for African leaders to continue preaching peace and non-violence at a time when the government met our peaceful demands with force.
"This conclusion was not easily arrived at. It was only when all else had failed, when all channels of peaceful protest had been barred to us, that the decision was made to embark on violent forms of political struggle, and to form Umkhonto we Sizwe. We did so not because we desired such a course, but solely because the government had left us with no other choice. In the Manifesto of Umkhonto published on 16 December 1961, which is exhibit AD, we said:
'The time comes in the life of any nation when there remain only two choices – submit or fight. That time has now come to South Africa. We shall not submit and we have no choice but to hit back by all means in our power in defence of our people, our future, and our freedom.'
"Firstly, we believed that as a result of Government policy, violence by the African people had become inevitable, and that unless responsible leadership was given to canalise and control the feelings of our people, there would be outbreaks of terrorism which would produce an intensity of bitterness and hostility between the various races of this country which is not produced even by war. Secondly, we felt that without violence there would be no way open to the African people to succeed in their struggle against the principle of white supremacy. All lawful modes of expressing opposition to this principle had been closed by legislation, and we were placed in a position in which we had either to accept a permanent state of inferiority, or take over the Government. We chose to defy the law. We first broke the law in a way which avoided any recourse to violence; when this form was legislated against, and then the Government resorted to a show of force to crush opposition to its policies, only then did we decide to answer with violence."
Churchill was briefly great in 1940-42, and the alternative of Lord Halifax who was likely to sue for peace in 1940 doesnt bear thinking about.
The rest of his political career is less distinguished. He opposed Indian independence, his misadventures in the first war, his arial gassing of the Kurds in 1922, are all much less impressive.
The transition of China under Deng Xiouping was truly remarkable in view of that country's history.
God was briefly great from day one to day six. The rest of the week was less distinguished.
Most political events are slow burners, the Yougov fluctations from day to day are mostly margin of error, or the movements of people who are such gadflys that they change their vote because Balls was a bit shouty. It is the longer term trends that matter, and these show not much change over a much longer period.
I think Osborne and Alexander have done a very good autumn statement, not least in getting out some roadmap to a balanced budget. Balls was floundering uselessly like a fish. It will take a little while before people recognise the wisdom of their economic policy, not one to expect an instant % change in the polls.
Churchill was briefly great in 1940-42, and the alternative of Lord Halifax who was likely to sue for peace in 1940 doesnt bear thinking about.
The rest of his political career is less distinguished. He opposed Indian independence, his misadventures in the first war, his arial gassing of the Kurds in 1922, are all much less impressive.
The transition of China under Deng Xiouping was truly remarkable in view of that country's history.
God was briefly great from day one to day six. The rest of the week was less distinguished.
According to the logic of those who believe in the vetogasm moving that nights poll the coverage of Osborne led to tonight's YouGov 6% rise in the Labour lead
Even you know that's not the case.
Most of the YouGov was done pre Autumn Statement and hard to see that anything in Autumn Statement could have cost (or gained) Con many votes.
Retirement age is the only thing and that affects well, well under 50% of adults so inconceivable that could move the lead by 6%.
Much, much more likely to be random variation.
Con this week with YouGov: 32, 32, 34, 29. All consistent with actual rating of 32.
Surprising that the YouGov poll only produces a Labour majority of 120. An 8 point lead over the Tories in 2001 gave a majority of 170. I expect Ed would settle for 120 though.
Mike, up here in Aberdeenshire we even missed the Autumn statement due to power cuts. Mine is thankfully back on, but others were not so lucky and we hosted a few extras without electricity for dinner tonight. That was one hell of a storm last night, and we sustained some damage to our roof etc. Just found the roof of my summer house this evening in the nearby field, and this very solid wee hoosie was actually lifted up and moved by the gales last night. After that other terrible storm down South was trailed with warnings for days before it actually hit, I noticed an amber alert for high winds on the Met Office site yesterday. But that really did not prepare us for the storm that actually hit us last night, definitely the worst one I have experienced damage wise here in the North East.
Mike, up here in Aberdeenshire we even missed the Autumn statement due to power cuts. Mine is thankfully back on, but others were not so lucky and we hosted a few extras without electricity for dinner tonight. That was one hell of a storm last night, and we sustained some damage to our roof etc. Just found the roof of my summer house this evening in the nearby field, and this very solid wee hoosie was actually lifted up and moved by the gales last night. After that other terrible storm down South was trailed with warnings for days before it actually hit, I noticed an amber alert for high winds on the Met Office site yesterday. But that really did not prepare us for the storm that actually hit us last night, definitely the worst one I have experienced damage wise here in the North East.
Ed Balls may be crap but today noone noticed with the storms. In the long term he would be found out obviously, but his variance is fairing well so the long term may not be by the next election.
Mandela was not great because he fought against left or right, because he fought against black or white. Mandela was great because he fought against hatred. We should all bear that in mind. Truly great man.
Exactly.
It seems a bit trivial to talk polls in the shadow of that, but I'd take both the latest YouGov and the next one with pinches of salt. This one is mostly based on "work till you're 70", tomorrow's will be based on "economy doing spledidly". I'd wait till next week to see how it all settles down.
Surprising that the YouGov poll only produces a Labour majority of 120. An 8 point lead over the Tories in 2001 gave a majority of 170. I expect Ed would settle for 120 though.
I guess this is the flip side of having an FPTP advantage in the 250-350 range. The voters who are disproportionately in marginal seats have to come from somewhere. There's some point further up the scale where that will mean fewer winnable seats in a landslide.
Surprising that the YouGov poll only produces a Labour majority of 120. An 8 point lead over the Tories in 2001 gave a majority of 170. I expect Ed would settle for 120 though.
I guess this is the flip side of having an FPTP advantage in the 250-350 range. The voters who are disproportionately in marginal seats have to come from somewhere. There's some point further up the scale where that will mean fewer winnable seats in a landslide.
Not sure I quite understand that. If you re-run the 2001 election on electoral calculus you only get a Labour majority of 90. Presumably that's because there was a bigger swing in the marginals in the last two elections than nationwide average? So a uniform swing now would put us back to where we were in 2001.
I think that its us who were the unlucky ones to have Brown in charge at the Treasury for so long with Ed Balls directing the economic levers for his political ambitions. But if the good economic news continues, then it will start to trickle down more and more into public confidence in the recovery as well as peoples own personal circumstances. But if Britain goes onto outperform its neighbours in the West economically under Osborne between now and the next GE, then both Balls and the Labour party are screwed. Who is going to vote to remove such a key economic player in this Government, only to then hand the job back to the man who got us into this mess in the first place?
On the issue of the politics, I think the Conservatives really need to now go on the offensive on the economy. Labour left a disastrous economic legacy just three years ago, now they are complaining that this Government hasn't cleared up their mess far enough and fast enough for it to impact on the cost of living hit we all took thanks to their incompetence. In other words, they have done nothing but heckle from the sidelines rather than attempt to contribute meaningfully to this recovery, and I think that is a line of attack that really needs to be pursued between now and the next GE. They are all gimmicks and not much else.
Mike, up here in Aberdeenshire we even missed the Autumn statement due to power cuts. Mine is thankfully back on, but others were not so lucky and we hosted a few extras without electricity for dinner tonight. That was one hell of a storm last night, and we sustained some damage to our roof etc. Just found the roof of my summer house this evening in the nearby field, and this very solid wee hoosie was actually lifted up and moved by the gales last night. After that other terrible storm down South was trailed with warnings for days before it actually hit, I noticed an amber alert for high winds on the Met Office site yesterday. But that really did not prepare us for the storm that actually hit us last night, definitely the worst one I have experienced damage wise here in the North East.
Ed Balls may be crap but today noone noticed with the storms. In the long term he would be found out obviously, but his variance is fairing well so the long term may not be by the next election.
In a country thats a mess with plenty of 3rd party players, it is rumoured there is a violent coup attempt on. Curiously, militarily facilities staffed with foreigners are reportedly amongst the places where there are shooting matches.
In a country thats a mess with plenty of 3rd party players, it is rumoured there is a violent coup attempt on. Curiously, militarily facilities staffed with foreigners are reportedly amongst the places where there are shooting matches.
In a country thats a mess with plenty of 3rd party players, it is rumoured there is a violent coup attempt on. Curiously, militarily facilities staffed with foreigners are reportedly amongst the places where there are shooting matches.
That placed is as cursed a Somalia.
Isn't that an average wedding in Yemen ?
No this time the gunshots aren't in the air. Its a bad day in Sanaa and a bad night, its unclear what is going on after the rather sizeable attack on the defence ministry today, there was full on mortar and artillery fire tonight, suggesting this is more than a terror incident thats run on a bit. The word on the street from foreigners there is that coup rumors kicked off this evening.
I can still see Clarke and Haddin being at the crease... when I wake up in the morning, Australia batting into day 3 and declaring on 700 ! Unless Clarke wants to get a few England out tonight. Its his choice really, right now he is holding every card in this test match.
Not sure I quite understand that. If you re-run the 2001 election on electoral calculus you only get a Labour majority of 90. Presumably that's because there was a bigger swing in the marginals in the last two elections than nationwide average? So a uniform swing now would put us back to where we were in 2001.
There have been the 2010 boundary changes - ie the changes which actually came in for the 2010 GE and the loss of 13 Scottish seats compared to 2001.
Overall the position now is not nearly so lop-sided against Con as it was in 2001.
Remember Peter Kellner reckons Lab may need a lead of 7% for a majority of 1 in 2015. He may not be right but compare that with a Lab lead of 3% in 2005 giving a majority of 66.
Surprising that the YouGov poll only produces a Labour majority of 120. An 8 point lead over the Tories in 2001 gave a majority of 170. I expect Ed would settle for 120 though.
I guess this is the flip side of having an FPTP advantage in the 250-350 range. The voters who are disproportionately in marginal seats have to come from somewhere. There's some point further up the scale where that will mean fewer winnable seats in a landslide.
Not sure I quite understand that. If you re-run the 2001 election on electoral calculus you only get a Labour majority of 90. Presumably that's because there was a bigger swing in the marginals in the last two elections than nationwide average? So a uniform swing now would put us back to where we were in 2001.
I may be missing your point, but my thought is: It's got easier for Lab to win Broxtowe (marginal seat in a balanced election), because voters have moved there from either Bootle (safe Lab) or Kensington (safe Con). That helps Labour in the typical case, but hurts them when they poll very strongly (harder to win Kensington, which is now the marginal while Broxtowe is safe) or very weakly (harder to hold Bootle, which is now the marginal while Broxtowe is hopeless).
So reading the posts by PB Hodges tonight, the Conservative Party is going to keep to the same campaign strategy, hope the economy improves further and hopes the improvement trickles down to the vast majority who haven't yet seen any improvement.
Surprising that the YouGov poll only produces a Labour majority of 120. An 8 point lead over the Tories in 2001 gave a majority of 170. I expect Ed would settle for 120 though.
I guess this is the flip side of having an FPTP advantage in the 250-350 range. The voters who are disproportionately in marginal seats have to come from somewhere. There's some point further up the scale where that will mean fewer winnable seats in a landslide.
Not sure I quite understand that. If you re-run the 2001 election on electoral calculus you only get a Labour majority of 90. Presumably that's because there was a bigger swing in the marginals in the last two elections than nationwide average? So a uniform swing now would put us back to where we were in 2001.
I may be missing your point, but my thought is: It's got easier for Lab to win Broxtowe (marginal seat in a balanced election), because voters have moved there from either Bootle (safe Lab) or Kensington (safe Con). That helps Labour in the typical case, but hurts them when they poll very strongly (harder to win Kensington, which is now the marginal while Broxtowe is safe) or very weakly (harder to hold Bootle, which is now the marginal while Broxtowe is hopeless).
Bootle to Broxtowe.....did I miss the hundreds of Merseybuses heading south :-)
The 2001 election was based on electorates from 1991. On the other hand the 2010 election was based on electorates from 2000, so they were both 10 years out of date, so to speak.
Comments
Unless you are one of those fools who likes to play the 'who killed most' game then you should learn to understand that both sides of the political divide have their heroes and villains who are recognisable to all of us irrespective of our political alignment.
Conservatives gain Nuneaton Arbury Con 395 Lab 369 UKIP 109 Green 56 BNP 35 TUSC 8 Eng Dem 6
David Cameron accepted an all-expenses paid trip to apartheid South Africa while Nelson Mandela was still in prison, an updated biography of the Tory leader reveals today.
The trip by Mr Cameron in 1989, when he was a rising star of the Conservative Research Department, was a chance for him to "see for himself" and was funded by a firm that lobbied against the imposition of sanctions on the apartheid regime.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/camerons-freebie-to-apartheid-south-africa-1674367.html
http://voices.suntimes.com/early-and-often/sweet/obama-on-the-death-of-nelson-mandela-transcript/
Great Metro fp.
Night all.
Turnout was appallingly low, and Nuneaton is the sort of place where low turnouts tend to damage Labour particularly badly.
'Keep on plotting to 'make the white folk angry'."
Have you been drinking? You're one of the smartest posters on here but you keep posting the same irrelevant nonsensical quote.
LBJ, alongside Reagan, Gandhi, Churchill and Mandela.
Deng Xiouping?
"3/5. No Thatcher or Reagan. It's a high bar."
Are you being ironic?
@Tim
Ataturk would be a good choice but for his nationalism. He was certainly one of the most progressive leaders of the 20th century notably on women's rights
The ANC is a typical terrorist organisation ... Anyone who thinks it is going to run the government in South Africa is living in cloud-cuckoo land' - Margaret Thatcher, 1987
You'll have to wait until tomorrow for the fifth (Mike or substitute-Mike permitting). I've written a piece based on them.
Cardiff Splott Labour hold Lab 706 LD 604 UKIP 209 Ind 94 Con 86 TUSC 80
But as Foxinsox rightly pointed out, his greatness came in his forgiveness and reconciliation with his conservative enemies.
Re other suggestions:
Wilson: Not even close. Great leadership is not pointing the way then letting the side down by failing to secure your domestic opinion.
Deng: Effective but not great, though closing down the lunacy of earlier Chinese Communist regimes was an achievement.
No one could have reconciled such a fractured country better than the Great Man !
Only a Texan could have allowed segregation/Jim Crow to be abolished without tearing America apart.
He knew that, and he also believed it was right and moral thing to do.
Interesting to see the Right on here talking about their "greats" as if Mandela was one of them.
Bevan, Mandela, Castro, Xiaoping, Gorbachev anyone?
But I think the quote is very relevant on a 'glass houses and stones' / 'motes and beams' basis.
Supporters of a party which was willing to racebait in a town with a history of racial problems are on slippery ground when it comes to accusations of racism.
Anyway I've said too much so all I'll say now is RIP and hopefully the world in general and South Africa in particular can perhaps take some inspiration from Mandela.
Apart from Pinochet, wtf.
It's not like he held a racially sensitive post like Immigration Minister.
Oh wait.
A period of reflection from your party, and your wing of politics would be best. Apologies as always to individual exceptions.
While the ANC was very heavily influenced by the Communists, Mandela knew that the key to South Africa remaining economically successful was to maintain a capitalist system.
Visiting South Africa now is a very different experience, with a lot more mixing of peoples, but I have been to places that time has passed by. I remember staying in a place in the Drakensberg where the host was a supporter of the AWB.
130.
Far fewer than Amritsar, Dresden or Iraq.
The rest of his political career is less distinguished. He opposed Indian independence, his misadventures in the first war, his arial gassing of the Kurds in 1922, are all much less impressive.
The transition of China under Deng Xiouping was truly remarkable in view of that country's history.
If anyone had died then you can be sure the authorities would have been shouting it from the rooftops.
BBC1 1pm - 3m
BBC1 6pm - 5m
BBC1 10pm - 4m
Autumn Statement was finished by 12 noon so got full coverage on the 1pm.
So Mandela won't actually have impacted numbers who saw reports of Autumn Statement on TV that much.
Plus vast majority looking at internet news etc would have done so before 10pm when Mandela news was announced.
All they require is very, very elementary numeracy.
"This conclusion was not easily arrived at. It was only when all else had failed, when all channels of peaceful protest had been barred to us, that the decision was made to embark on violent forms of political struggle, and to form Umkhonto we Sizwe. We did so not because we desired such a course, but solely because the government had left us with no other choice. In the Manifesto of Umkhonto published on 16 December 1961, which is exhibit AD, we said:
'The time comes in the life of any nation when there remain only two choices – submit or fight. That time has now come to South Africa. We shall not submit and we have no choice but to hit back by all means in our power in defence of our people, our future, and our freedom.'
"Firstly, we believed that as a result of Government policy, violence by the African people had become inevitable, and that unless responsible leadership was given to canalise and control the feelings of our people, there would be outbreaks of terrorism which would produce an intensity of bitterness and hostility between the various races of this country which is not produced even by war. Secondly, we felt that without violence there would be no way open to the African people to succeed in their struggle against the principle of white supremacy. All lawful modes of expressing opposition to this principle had been closed by legislation, and we were placed in a position in which we had either to accept a permanent state of inferiority, or take over the Government. We chose to defy the law. We first broke the law in a way which avoided any recourse to violence; when this form was legislated against, and then the Government resorted to a show of force to crush opposition to its policies, only then did we decide to answer with violence."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umkhonto_we_Sizwe
I think Osborne and Alexander have done a very good autumn statement, not least in getting out some roadmap to a balanced budget. Balls was floundering uselessly like a fish. It will take a little while before people recognise the wisdom of their economic policy, not one to expect an instant % change in the polls.
Most of the YouGov was done pre Autumn Statement and hard to see that anything in Autumn Statement could have cost (or gained) Con many votes.
Retirement age is the only thing and that affects well, well under 50% of adults so inconceivable that could move the lead by 6%.
Much, much more likely to be random variation.
Con this week with YouGov: 32, 32, 34, 29. All consistent with actual rating of 32.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/
http://news.sky.com/
Bit of a bugger that.'
Mike, up here in Aberdeenshire we even missed the Autumn statement due to power cuts. Mine is thankfully back on, but others were not so lucky and we hosted a few extras without electricity for dinner tonight. That was one hell of a storm last night, and we sustained some damage to our roof etc. Just found the roof of my summer house this evening in the nearby field, and this very solid wee hoosie was actually lifted up and moved by the gales last night. After that other terrible storm down South was trailed with warnings for days before it actually hit, I noticed an amber alert for high winds on the Met Office site yesterday. But that really did not prepare us for the storm that actually hit us last night, definitely the worst one I have experienced damage wise here in the North East.
Perhaps he is a lucky general.
It seems a bit trivial to talk polls in the shadow of that, but I'd take both the latest YouGov and the next one with pinches of salt. This one is mostly based on "work till you're 70", tomorrow's will be based on "economy doing spledidly". I'd wait till next week to see how it all settles down.
On the issue of the politics, I think the Conservatives really need to now go on the offensive on the economy. Labour left a disastrous economic legacy just three years ago, now they are complaining that this Government hasn't cleared up their mess far enough and fast enough for it to impact on the cost of living hit we all took thanks to their incompetence. In other words, they have done nothing but heckle from the sidelines rather than attempt to contribute meaningfully to this recovery, and I think that is a line of attack that really needs to be pursued between now and the next GE. They are all gimmicks and not much else.
In a country thats a mess with plenty of 3rd party players, it is rumoured there is a violent coup attempt on. Curiously, militarily facilities staffed with foreigners are reportedly amongst the places where there are shooting matches.
That placed is as cursed a Somalia.
What a tragedy for Ben Stokes: what would have been his first Test wicket was a no-ball.
Overall the position now is not nearly so lop-sided against Con as it was in 2001.
Remember Peter Kellner reckons Lab may need a lead of 7% for a majority of 1 in 2015. He may not be right but compare that with a Lab lead of 3% in 2005 giving a majority of 66.
England are getting some shocking luck, but then again you make your own luck...
I'm with the PB Hodges.....keep up the good work!
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Another poor result for Scottish UKIP, and the Tory vote held up well, which with other data confirms a modest uptick in their fortunes in Scotland.
Lab 53.5% (-7.0)
SNP 28.7% (-2.2 )
Con 5.9% (+1.7)
UKIP 3.4% (-)
TUSC 1.8% (-)
LD 1.4% (+0.7)
No Bedroom Tax 1.3% (-)
Grn 1.1% (-0.4)
SSP 0.9% (n/c)
Christian 0.9% (-)
Britannica 0.8% (-)
Democratic Alliance 0.2% (-)