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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay falls further behind Corbyn in latest YouGov favourabilit

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  • surbiton said:

    If UK makes an offer greater than £50bn, then there will be a big shift to Remain. Apart from the fact that we were told that we owed them nothing, large numbers of people will conclude that if a deal with the EU is so important, we might as well stay in.
    No it wont - just wishful thinking - most would be relieved to just get on with it
  • Looks as if Ireland are going out of the World Cup but at least they are in good company with Italy

    Latest - Ireland 1 - Denmark 3 (72 mins)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563
    rcs1000 said:

    I read this on Quora today, and thought it a great anecdote to share. The question was about the similarities between LBJ and Trump:

    In 1961 Lyndon Johnson visited Pakistan on a goodwill tour. He plunged into a crowd and began shaking hands, saying as he did so, “Y’all come to Washington and see us sometime.”

    Americans know that a remark like this this is a conversational filler, not intended to be taken literally any more than “How are you?” by anyone other than a doctor is a request for one’s medical history. But a reporter heard Johnson say it to an impoverished camel-cart driver named Bashir Ahmad. The next day the reporter’s newspaper blared the news that the vice president of the United States had invited Ahmad to visit him in Washington.

    Now try to envision Donald Trump in Johnson’s place. First, he’s a germophobe. He wouldn’t have shaken hands with a crowd of poor Muslims who only washed their hands when it was time for their daily prayers, and who usually ate with their fingers for lack of flatware.

    And even if he’d said, “Y’all come to Washington and see us sometime,” once it was reported in the Pakistani press he would have called it fake news. Nor would he have invited Ahmad to the White House, much less his Trump Tower penthouse.

    Yet Johnson made it happen. He arranged for a charitable foundation to fly Ahmad to the United States, where he met President Kennedy and former President Truman. He also visited the LBJ Ranch. As a final gesture, Johnson routed Ahmad’s flight home through Mecca so that Ahmad, who never could have afforded the trip on his own, could fulfill his religious duty to make the hajj. Ahmad was overcome with gratitude, and the president of Pakistan said Johnson had done more than anyone else to improve U.S.-Pakistani relations.

    Now imagine Trump in the same situation. He’s not only not improving relations with countries that are wary of us, he’s alienating longtime allies. He’d certainly never think of treating a Muslim to a visit to Mecca. Not only would his base be horrified, but he’d be convinced that while Ahmad was in Islam’s holiest city, he’d turn into a jihadi who would come back to the United States at his first opportunity and commit a terrorist act.

    Johnson made a terrible mistake by deciding to escalate the Vietnam war, and it’s unfortunate that this is what he’s remembered for. But in his ability to connect with and help the less fortunate without worrying that he was somehow debasing himself or betraying his social class, he was more of an alpha male than Trump will ever be.

    Johnson’s legacy will be for ever tarnished by Vietnam. Which is tragic becaue he was probably as near a Social Democratic president as the US will have for many, many years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,040

    No it wont - just wishful thinking - most would be relieved to just get on with it
    Indeed, there may be a shift to UKIP with a £50 billion exit payment but not to Remain.

    Most would accept it as the price of a FTA.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Starting to feel its not just Spurs who are the Harry Kane team. England do not look dangerous without him.
  • DavidL said:

    Starting to feel its not just Spurs who are the Harry Kane team. England do not look dangerous without him.

    They are young and have a lot to learn but England are generally boring at present
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ishmael_Z said:

    It is a thing I seriously don't understand about the more precious Remoaners: if 52% of your voting fellow countrymen are xenophobic bigots, and half the posters here are swivel eyed loons, what are you doing in the country and on the forum, respectively?

    Apparently you are not very good at sums either.

    Nobody is saying 52% of the voting public are xenophobic bigots.

    You only needed 2% of them to be xenophobic bigots to win the vote...

    Not all Leave voters are xenophobic bigots, but all the xenophobic bigots voted Leave
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,502
    Scott_P said:

    Apparently you are not very good at sums either.

    Nobody is saying 52% of the voting public are xenophobic bigots.

    You only needed 2% of them to be xenophobic bigots to win the vote...

    Not all Leave voters are xenophobic bigots, but all the xenophobic bigots voted Leave
    Most Sinn Fein supporters voted Remain, so that's one group of xenophobic bigots who voted with you.
  • Scott_P said:

    Apparently you are not very good at sums either.

    Nobody is saying 52% of the voting public are xenophobic bigots.

    You only needed 2% of them to be xenophobic bigots to win the vote...

    Not all Leave voters are xenophobic bigots, but all the xenophobic bigots voted Leave
    I just think all name calling should stop. It does not help anyone's argument
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Sean_F said:

    Most Sinn Fein supporters voted Remain, so that's one group of xenophobic bigots who voted with you.
    I bet Emma Dent Coad voted Remain too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543
    Sean_F said:

    Most Sinn Fein supporters voted Remain, so that's one group of xenophobic bigots who voted with you.
    So did Jeremy Corbyn (or at least, he says he did which given his track record is not necessarily the same thing of course).

    And I assume Emma Dent Coad and most of Momentum did as well.

    So that's a fair number of people who could pass for xenophobic bigots in a clear light whom I have the embarrassment of admitting voted the same way as me.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509

    I really, really hope one of those Conservatives investigated and found innocent sues you, for continuing to impugn their honesty.
    We have had this discussion before. They won't sue because they weren't found innocent. The CPS did not prosecute, not because they hadn't overspent, but because they could not prove the candidate/agent knew. The party jolly well knew. The electoral commission was in little doubt, but it didn't come under their jurisdiction to act locally. I think constantly trying to imply nothing happened is ridiculous. I was involved in one of these cases at a local level many years ago. The law is an ass when it come to this stuff. In my case there was blatant and effective cheating, but in fairness to the opponents agent (for whom I had a lot of respect), it was done by a 3rd party and he was I believe unaware. The CPS spent 2 years considering it before dropping it. It wouldn't have been fair on the agent to have prosecuted, but equally it wasn't fair that the result stood. It struck me that provided I wasn't a candidate or agent I could canvas and murder everyone who said they would vote for the other candidate and the result would still stand.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    Apparently you are not very good at sums either.

    Nobody is saying 52% of the voting public are xenophobic bigots.

    You only needed 2% of them to be xenophobic bigots to win the vote...

    Not all Leave voters are xenophobic bigots, but all the xenophobic bigots voted Leave
    I am pretty certain that is an idea you have just come up with, but the past 18 months of flouncy whining have notably been about Leavers tout court, not about the teeny tiny minority of Leavers who give the vast and perfectly reasonable majority a bad name.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    The worst elements in Remain

    Who are these people, and what is their role in the negotiations?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    Is it me or are the rebels getting focussed on disproportionately to their size ? Govt seems to have the numbers so far
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I am pretty certain that is an idea you have just come up with, but the past 18 months of flouncy whining have notably been about Leavers tout court, not about the teeny tiny minority of Leavers who give the vast and perfectly reasonable majority a bad name.

    No, you misunderstand.

    Everyone who voted Leave is equally culpable for the ensuing shitstorm, but not all of them are xenophobic bigots :smile:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,040
    edited November 2017
    SeanT said:

    I will echo the previous remarks.

    The worst elements in Remain and Leave are combining to give us the most pointlessly painful of Brexits.

    If May does pay up and gets a Canada style FTA and transition period though ironically the ultra Remainers will be furious we are still leaving the single market and the EU, the ultra Leavers and Kippers will be furious we are paying anything to the EU at all and have to wait until the transition period is over for full Brexit but everyone else will be reasonably satisfied.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    edited November 2017
    SeanT said:

    Fuck off Ireland. Gone right off them. Fucking whingeing, mewling, German-arse-licking paddy-whacking bunch of pencil-head euro-cucks.

    Really. Fuck Ireland. Fuck the Irish. Fuck them and their fucking toilet of a half-formed country. So it's noble and brilliant when the Irish seek their independence from the UK, but it's awful and selfish and mean when the British seek their independence from the EU?

    Haddaway and shite. Fuck off, Ireland.
    That is some rant Sean

    And Ireland lost 1 - 5
  • HYUFD said:

    If May does pay up and gets a Canada style FTA and transition period though ironically the ultra Remainers will be furious we are still leaving the single market and the EU, the ultra Leavers and Kippers will be furious we are paying anything to the EU at all and have to wait until the transition period is over for full Brexit but everyone else will be reasonably satisfied.
    About 68% according to recent polls
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Scott_P said:

    Who are these people, and what is their role in the negotiations?
    Try to understand the leave side like Peston,he states he was out of touch.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucguJvuKmQg
  • Am starting to warm to David Davis, he knows

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/930542395254542337
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509

    No - that has been resolved with no further sction
    Has it? I thought the Police were still investigating. To be honest I doubt anything will come of it. I suspect the Police would rather spend there time catching burglars, but last I saw, and it wasn't that long ago, they were still involved. can you update me?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    I read this on Quora today, and thought it a great anecdote to share. The question was about the similarities between LBJ and Trump:

    In 1961 Lyndon Johnson visited Pakistan on a goodwill tour. He plunged into a crowd and began shaking hands, saying as he did so, “Y’all come to Washington and see us sometime.”

    Americans know that a remark like this this is a conversational filler, not intended to be taken literally any more than “How are you?” by anyone other than a doctor is a request for one’s medical history. But a reporter heard Johnson say it to an impoverished camel-cart driver named Bashir Ahmad. The next day the reporter’s newspaper blared the news that the vice president of the United States had invited Ahmad to visit him in Washington.

    Now try to envision Donald Trump in Johnson’s place. First, he’s a germophobe. He wouldn’t have shaken hands with a crowd of poor Muslims who only washed their hands when it was time for their daily prayers, and who usually ate with their fingers for lack of flatware.

    And even if he’d said, “Y’all come to Washington and see us sometime,” once it was reported in the Pakistani press he would have called it fake news. Nor would he have invited Ahmad to the White House, much less his Trump Tower penthouse.

    Yet Johnson made it happen. He arranged for a charitable foundation to fly Ahmad to the United States, where he met President Kennedy and former President Truman. He also visited the LBJ Ranch. As a final gesture, Johnson routed Ahmad’s flight home through Mecca so that Ahmad, who never could have afforded the trip on his own, could fulfill his religious duty to make the hajj. Ahmad was overcome with gratitude, and the president of Pakistan said Johnson had done more than anyone else to improve U.S.-Pakistani relations.

    Now imagine Trump in the same situation. He’s not only not improving relations with countries that are wary of us, he’s alienating longtime allies. He’d certainly never think of treating a Muslim to a visit to Mecca. Not only would his base be horrified, but he’d be convinced that while Ahmad was in Islam’s holiest city, he’d turn into a jihadi who would come back to the United States at his first opportunity and commit a terrorist act.

    Johnson made a terrible mistake by deciding to escalate the Vietnam war, and it’s unfortunate that this is what he’s remembered for. But in his ability to connect with and help the less fortunate without worrying that he was somehow debasing himself or betraying his social class, he was more of an alpha male than Trump will ever be.

    Great story. LBJ was potentially a great President. The incomprehensible bit was escalating Vietnam even though the Generals had decided by 67 that there was only slight chance of victory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,040

    Am starting to warm to David Davis, he knows

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/930542395254542337

    Combined with a FTA that would be excellent news
  • kjh said:

    Has it? I thought the Police were still investigating. To be honest I doubt anything will come of it. I suspect the Police would rather spend there time catching burglars, but last I saw, and it wasn't that long ago, they were still involved. can you update me?
    Yes - no further action
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543
    SeanT said:

    Fuck off Ireland. Gone right off them. Fucking whingeing, mewling, German-arse-licking paddy-whacking bunch of pencil-head euro-cucks.

    Really. Fuck Ireland. Fuck the Irish. Fuck them and their fucking toilet of a half-formed country. So it's noble and brilliant when the Irish seek their independence from the UK, but it's awful and selfish and mean when the British seek their independence from the EU?

    Haddaway and shite. Fuck off, Ireland.
    Call me Dr Suspicious Sean but do I get the feeling you have developed a certain antipathy towards Ireland?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    However hard they try, I am not yet convinced that the Brexiteer line "Remainers are to blame for Brexit being rubbish" is actually going to work.

    Gold star for effort though
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566
    edited November 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Crush the Saboteurs...

    tps://twitter.com/isaby/status/930548238033223681

    That headline was disgraceful, and the attitude it displays very unfair and unwise in almost all instances, but you are aware that how MPs voted in the House is routinely made available, on the grounds that decision makers must be accountable for their decisions? Entire websites exist for that purpose. Anyone is free to argue that someone should be voted out because of the way they voted in the House, even on a single issue. Of course, going any further than making that argument would be wrong.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,040

    About 68% according to recent polls
    Exactly, May can go out on a high
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,040
    SeanT said:

    From Gina Miller to Dominic Grieve, from Ms Soubry to Chuka Umunna, from A C Grayling all the way down to you (quite a distance, I confess), there's a cohort of Remainers who simply do not accept that we are leaving, and cannot comprehend that it is happening, and therefore will suspend democracy - literally ignore or subvert the vote - to prevent it occurring. Let us recall Ian mcEwan, the Remainer novelist par excellence, who actively wished for Leave voters to die.

    This mad ugly shit then gets Liberal Leavers like me all het up and angry, and then we say, Fuck It, Brexit Whatever - when we should be your natural allies, guiding the UK into a nice soft EFTA Brexit.

    And there we are.

    Too late now, methinks. Tis done. You lost your collective minds, and we are headed for a crash-out.
    No, we are heading for a Canada style FTA despite their moaning.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    From Gina Miller to Dominic Grieve, from Ms Soubry to Chuka Umunna, from A C Grayling all the way down to you (quite a distance, I confess), there's a cohort of Remainers who simply do not accept that we are leaving, and cannot comprehend that it is happening, and therefore will suspend democracy - literally ignore or subvert the vote - to prevent it occurring. Let us recall Ian mcEwan, the Remainer novelist par excellence, who actively wished for Leave voters to die.

    I guess you have been at the vino this evening Sean, but even you must grasp that none of the people in your list have actually stopped, averted, changed and altered Brexit in any way.

    The Brexit now being delivered, that you voted for, is driven by the Brexiteers.

    You won. SUCK IT UP!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    However hard they try, I am not yet convinced that the Brexiteer line "Remainers are to blame for Brexit being rubbish" is actually going to work.

    Gold star for effort though

    "Remainers are to blame for Brexit" works for me. Do you blame Iceland or England for England losing to Iceland last year?

    And we are, as some politician once observed, all in this together. If you think Remainers will get time off Brexit for good behaviour you are in for a rude surprise.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    "Remainers are to blame for Brexit" works for me. Do you blame Iceland or England for England losing to Iceland last year?

    And we are, as some politician once observed, all in this together. If you think Remainers will get time off Brexit for good behaviour you are in for a rude surprise.
    There's a thread in there comparing Theresa May to Roy Hodgson.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    Am starting to warm to David Davis, he knows

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/930542395254542337

    Special treatment for City workers.

    That should please those who voted to Leave because they felt left behind and abandoned by the global elite.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543
    edited November 2017

    There's a thread in there comparing Theresa May to Roy Hodgson.
    Why? What's he done to upset you so much?

    Edit - and New Thread, btw.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    We had the "Wah, wah, wah, it's not fair" tantrum earlier today.

    Now we have the spectacle of "It's Mummy's fault I burnt my hand, cos she told me the stove was hot, which MADE ME TOUCH IT!"

    Are Brexiteers really so ashamed of their vote any attempt at transference is worth a go?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566
    Scott_P said:

    I guess you have been at the vino this evening Sean, but even you must grasp that none of the people in your list have actually stopped, averted, changed and altered Brexit in any way.

    The Brexit now being delivered, that you voted for, is driven by the Brexiteers.
    Brexiters certainly must take the lion's share of responsibility. But your insistence that those contributing to the political atmosphere and context are therefore irrelevant is an odd one - to take but one example, a very good, in my view, impact had by a Remainer was the Gina Miller case. That was a positive impact on the scrutinising of Brexit at the least. Whether that has as a result led to any effective change in stance or delivery of Brexit, or any other pressurizing from remainer elements has, for good or ill, is I think a question open to debate, but you do remainers a disservice by suggesting they have had no influence on the way Brexit has been attempted to be delivered.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566
    Scott_P said:

    We had the "Wah, wah, wah, it's not fair" tantrum earlier today.

    Now we have the spectacle of "It's Mummy's fault I burnt my hand, cos she told me the stove was hot, which MADE ME TOUCH IT!"

    Are Brexiteers really so ashamed of their vote any attempt at transference is worth a go?

    This right here is why I cannot take you seriously.
  • NEW THREAD

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    HYUFD said:

    No, we are heading for a Canada style FTA despite their moaning.
    From knowing exactly why people voted for Brexit to calling with certainty the type of deal we will get.

    Truly your posts are the gift that keeps giving.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,040
    TOPPING said:

    Special treatment for City workers.

    That should please those who voted to Leave because they felt left behind and abandoned by the global elite.
    They will still get the controls on unskilled workers they want so they will be fine with that
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    HYUFD said:

    They will still get the controls on unskilled workers they want so they will be fine with that
    And the winner of the Triumph Hurdle next year?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,040
    TOPPING said:

    From knowing exactly why people voted for Brexit to calling with certainty the type of deal we will get.

    Truly your posts are the gift that keeps giving.
    They voted to regain sovereignty first and reduce immigration second as Ashcroft's exit poll clearly confirmed.
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

    Even Barnier has said we will get a Canada style deal.
    http://www.cityam.com/274440/barnier-floats-canada-deal-post-brexit-model-risk-damaging
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,675
    A bit overlong, but charming story of how a Virginian district discovered the joys of disorganised canvassing:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/13/magazine/how-the-resistance-helped-democrats-dominate-virginia.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,040
    TOPPING said:

    And the winner of the Triumph Hurdle next year?
    It is not German bankers workers in Dagenham and Burnley and Hartlepool and Wolverhampton were competing with but Eastern Europeans willing to work for low wages and do long hours.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    HYUFD said:

    It is not German bankers workers in Dagenham and Burnley and Hartlepool and Wolverhampton were competing with but Eastern Europeans willing to work for low wages and do long hours.
    Earning the minimum wage.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    If you're not watching the debate on BBC Parliament, Raab (Con, Esher, Leave) and Grieve (Con, Beaconsfield, Remain) are on top of their briefs. Haven't heard much from shadow BrexSec Paul Blomfield (Lab, Sheffield C, Remain) but what he has said has been good.

    Bob Neill (Con, Chiselhurst, Remain) showing exactly the sort of approach one would welcome from a disappointed remainer who wants to make the best of it.

    Fairly pedestrian stuff from the rest, quite frankly. 3 of the 4 I've picked out as doing well are lawyers - why do we bemoan the presence of lawyers in parliament when their major role there is debating legislation?

    PS Preet Gill (Lab, Edgbaston, Remain) reading a question about transition when the amendment is about interpretation of post-brexit CJEU jurisprudence. Not impressed. Nor is the Dep Speaker, who just called the next q.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,040
    TOPPING said:

    Earning the minimum wage.
    Yes and that reduced demand for just above minimum wage jobs
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    HYUFD said:

    Yes and that reduced demand for just above minimum wage jobs
    That is the fault of the minimum wage not of the foreigners whose presence you dislike so much.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,040
    TOPPING said:

    That is the fault of the minimum wage not of the foreigners whose presence you dislike so much.
    What is remotely xenophobic about wanting a points based system so we have immigration based on what we actually need? Something a diehard Remoaner like you cannot fathom and Blair obviously could not fathom either in 2004 when he failed to impose transition controls on immigration from the new accession countries.

    Once the immigration controls are implemented the minimum wage will really be again what it was intended for, a minimum wage.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    HYUFD said:

    What is remotely xenophobic about wanting a points based system so we have immigration based on what we actually need? Something a diehard Remoaner like you cannot fathom and Blair obviously could not fathom either in 2004 when he failed to impose transition controls on immigration from the new accession countries.

    Once the immigration controls are implemented the minimum wage will really be again what it was intended for, a minimum wage.
    Wrong analysis, wrong answer, and wrong thread.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454

    Rog, a man who defends Kevin spacey to the bitter end while more than happy to attack frank field....Make of that what you will!

    I believe Field's promotion of Brexit will damage more people and more seriously than Spacey ever managed
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    Fuck off Ireland. Gone right off them. Fucking whingeing, mewling, German-arse-licking paddy-whacking bunch of pencil-head euro-cucks.

    Really. Fuck Ireland. Fuck the Irish. Fuck them and their fucking toilet of a half-formed country. So it's noble and brilliant when the Irish seek their independence from the UK, but it's awful and selfish and mean when the British seek their independence from the EU?

    Haddaway and shite. Fuck off, Ireland.
    I will be in Dublin on Thursday. I will tell them that you are very angry with them!
This discussion has been closed.