There’s going to be helicopters chasing that plane into Heathrow later, now that everyone’s worked out the flight and they’ve got six hours’ notice of it’s arrival.
If I were a TV news station I’d have a crew at Stanstead. Just saying.
F1 results have been patchy at best recently, so, as ever, do at your own risk and only bet what you can afford to lose. Anyway, with the disclaimer aside, I've made three early bets on Brazil.
Verstappen for pole each way at 7.5 on Betfair Sportsbooks (third the odds for top 2). Ricciardo has been outqualified by each of his three different team mates (Vettel, Kvyat, Verstappen) at the circuit. It's also tight and twisty for the most part, which should play to the strength of the Red Bull.
Also backed, with Ladbrokes + boost, Ricciardo to not be classified at 5.25. He's had a DNF at the last three races in a row, so it's as simple as that.
Last, again with Ladbrokes and boost, backed Verstappen to win at 5.25. In the last four races he's had two wins and a second place.
Johnny Mercer for International Development Secretary.
As long as it's not that Tom Tugendhat... his odds got down to 25-1 on next Tory leader last night so I laid him.... seems crazy for a Remainer with no govt position at present.
But he’s got experience as Chair of the Foreign Select Committee.
I’m a huge Tom Tugendhat fan.
"Huge Tom Tugendhat"... he's that big ?
But you're right - he certainly wouldn't be an ill informed arse when talking about Iran etc.
There’s going to be helicopters chasing that plane into Heathrow later, now that everyone’s worked out the flight and they’ve got six hours’ notice of it’s arrival.
If I were a TV news station I’d have a crew at Stanstead. Just saying.
Are helicopters allowed to chase planes into Heathrow!?
F1 results have been patchy at best recently, so, as ever, do at your own risk and only bet what you can afford to lose. Anyway, with the disclaimer aside, I've made three early bets on Brazil.
Verstappen for pole each way at 7.5 on Betfair Sportsbooks (third the odds for top 2). Ricciardo has been outqualified by each of his three different team mates (Vettel, Kvyat, Verstappen) at the circuit. It's also tight and twisty for the most part, which should play to the strength of the Red Bull.
Also backed, with Ladbrokes + boost, Ricciardo to not be classified at 5.25. He's had a DNF at the last three races in a row, so it's as simple as that...
Morning, Mr.D. That last one might be scuppered if he changes engine components pre-race, as has been suggested...
But none of us know what things will happen and none of us know what will be the consequences of those things happening.
And, to be blunt, there's been so many warnings of imminent disasters certain to hit us within the lifetimes of PBers (none of which actually did) that I'm rather suffering from imminent disaster fatigue.
100% of my day job is now focussed on Brexit.
I have regular meetings with Trade Bodies, DExEU, and others.
It isn’t going to end well.
Simply because idiots like David Davis think we can wait until the last minute.
I'm particularly annoyed because I actually remembered to check if he had penalties on Twitter and nothing showed up.
*hangs self*
This is the US all over again, where 2/3 of my tips were perfectly intelligent and none came off because Ricciardo's engine exploded and Verstappen had a huge penalty.
*sighs*
Edited extra bit: ah, you meant Ricciardo, not Verstappen. My mistake.
I suspect that if we spent a fraction of that money on public health rather than the NHS (and most likely a round of NHS payrises) it would do more for the wellbeing of the country.
It would be interesting to know how much the NHS had improved health over the last 70 years compared to other changes in housing, worktypes, reduction in smoking, improved health and safety etc.
It will not look good if May fires Patel and not Boris. Apart from the obvious implicit admitting of weakness, to keep a middle-aged posh white man and sack a BME woman would hardly be indicative of inclusion. In any case, Boris's bolt is shot; he's been exposed for what he is and his allies on the backbenches are likely to have grown few of late. If there were to be a leadership contest, I doubt he'd stand and if he did, I doubt he'd make any meaningful impact.
As an aside, I don't think Mike's right to say that May stopped Boris becoming PM. Had May resigned post-GE, the Tories would have had to have gone into opposition (which they should have done anyway); with no leader, there could have been no deal with the DUP - who would they have negotiated with and on what basis? Boris would not have been crowned unopposed. It was precisely the same logic that enabled me to be confident that Cameron would imminently become PM as soon as Brown announced he was stepping down as Labour leader in 2010: that completely undermined Labour's negotiating position with the Lib Dems which inevitably meant that they could only do a deal with the Tories. Mike may very well be right to say imply May not resigning stopped Boris from becoming Tory leader though.
Not just prosecuted. Convicted. A criminal, in other words.
Another example of why Corbyn also lacks a moral compass. And shows contempt for the voters, who are the ones cheated when this sort of thing happens.
If the Tories were not so busy committing hari kiri they ought to be making hay with this sort of thing.
I don't see that this can have been for political purposes. What would be the point, in Newham, where there is virtually no competition. Her crime must surely have had some other object?
It doesn’t really matter what her purpose was. She is not fit to hold a job in a political party. The integrity of the electoral process is key.
If Corbyn doesn’t understand that or doesn’t care then it shows, again, that he is not fit to be leader.
There have been too many examples of electoral malpractice for us to be sanguine about this. Many but not all of those examples have involved Labour. But this is not a party political issue. No-one who cheats or tries to manipulate the electoral process should have a role in a political party.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
There’s going to be helicopters chasing that plane into Heathrow later, now that everyone’s worked out the flight and they’ve got six hours’ notice of it’s arrival.
If I were a TV news station I’d have a crew at Stanstead. Just saying.
Are helicopters allowed to chase planes into Heathrow!?
If they’re careful about it, they can be allowed close enough to get good pictures from a couple of miles away to the north or south.
Hence the nudge about Stanstead, which is where it may end up - with a couple of Typhoons in close formation.
Odds on BF of Patel on going next are just a tad better than leaving your money in your current account overnight.
my bet this morning looking very bad.
which was?
Laying her to be next out of Cabinet. There's a small chance maybe someone else can do something really bad before this evening I guess! Or TM could grasp the nettle and sack Boris first...
That is by far the biggest risk with backing Patel to be next out. If May is going to conduct a bigger reshuffle including Boris then she'd have to sack him first because you make your appointments in descending order of seniority.
She'll probably be pissed off that this has all happened within a couple of weeks or so of the Budget, which makes Hammond invulnerable to being asked to leave. Otherwise, a move back to FS might have been an option - if he'd take it: he's surely in a position to refuse.
I was really enjoying the header until the last two words. Not only because I believe I was the first to predict Priti Patel going when a few weeks ago you did a 'next minister to go' thread but also because it's always satisfying when cheats don't prosper. I can't remember two more duplicitous ministers than she and Johnson since I first got interested in politics.
Not just prosecuted. Convicted. A criminal, in other words.
Another example of why Corbyn also lacks a moral compass. And shows contempt for the voters, who are the ones cheated when this sort of thing happens.
If the Tories were not so busy committing hari kiri they ought to be making hay with this sort of thing.
I don't see that this can have been for political purposes. What would be the point, in Newham, where there is virtually no competition. Her crime must surely have had some other object?
It doesn’t really matter what her purpose was. She is not fit to hold a job in a political party. The integrity of the electoral process is key.
If Corbyn doesn’t understand that or doesn’t care then it shows, again, that he is not fit to be leader.
There have been too many examples of electoral malpractice for us to be sanguine about this. Many but not all of those examples have involved Labour. But this is not a party political issue. No-one who cheats or tries to manipulate the electoral process should have a role in a political party.
I suspect that if we spent a fraction of that money on public health rather than the NHS (and most likely a round of NHS payrises) it would do more for the wellbeing of the country.
It would be interesting to know how much the NHS had improved health over the last 70 years compared to other changes in housing, worktypes, reduction in smoking, improved health and safety etc.
Well, its remit has changed. Originally it was to stop people from dying unnecessarily. Last night on BBC London News, they featured some idiot who injects himself with snake venom. He ended up in a coma for weeks. Personally I'd have let him die.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
We should all be paying our 3 quid to join the Conservative and Unionist Party
Not just prosecuted. Convicted. A criminal, in other words.
Another example of why Corbyn also lacks a moral compass. And shows contempt for the voters, who are the ones cheated when this sort of thing happens.
If the Tories were not so busy committing hari kiri they ought to be making hay with this sort of thing.
I don't see that this can have been for political purposes. What would be the point, in Newham, where there is virtually no competition. Her crime must surely have had some other object?
It doesn’t really matter what her purpose was. She is not fit to hold a job in a political party. The integrity of the electoral process is key.
If Corbyn doesn’t understand that or doesn’t care then it shows, again, that he is not fit to be leader.
There have been too many examples of electoral malpractice for us to be sanguine about this. Many but not all of those examples have involved Labour. But this is not a party political issue. No-one who cheats or tries to manipulate the electoral process should have a role in a political party.
I wasn't disagreeing. Nevertheless it is mysterious.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
Who is the best remainer candidate - and don't lie and say Hammond.
Rudd because she didn't die during a debate ? Maybe but here majority is too small.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
Who is the best remainer candidate - and don't lie and say Hammond.
Rudd because she didn't die during a debate ? Maybe but here majority is too small.
There’s going to be helicopters chasing that plane into Heathrow later, now that everyone’s worked out the flight and they’ve got six hours’ notice of it’s arrival.
If I were a TV news station I’d have a crew at Stanstead. Just saying.
Are helicopters allowed to chase planes into Heathrow!?
It's a big TMA/CTZ and I doubt a media copter would get ATC permission for a zone transit, especially as ATC read the news as well. It wouldn't be allowed anywhere near the landing flight path anyway, and what would be the point? It's pictures in the airport of her running from the cameras that the media will want. (I expect she will be taken by the backdoor VIP route, assuming there is one)
If they really want a picture of the plane landing, they can stand somewhere in West London and wait for it to come over
But none of us know what things will happen and none of us know what will be the consequences of those things happening.
And, to be blunt, there's been so many warnings of imminent disasters certain to hit us within the lifetimes of PBers (none of which actually did) that I'm rather suffering from imminent disaster fatigue.
100% of my day job is now focussed on Brexit.
I have regular meetings with Trade Bodies, DExEU, and others.
It isn’t going to end well.
Simply because idiots like David Davis think we can wait until the last minute.
We can’t.
And the less said about Liam Fox the better.
I hear you and I do respect your opinion.
More purposeful and properly prepared leadership from government would be a good thing.
And I don't think anyone here would disagree about the uselesseness of Liam Fox. Yet David Cameron thought Fox a man suitable to be in charge of Britain's military.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
Who is the best remainer candidate - and don't lie and say Hammond.
Rudd because she didn't die during a debate ? Maybe but here majority is too small.
Hunt.
Potentially - more so now he has recanted remainerism.
But none of us know what things will happen and none of us know what will be the consequences of those things happening.
And, to be blunt, there's been so many warnings of imminent disasters certain to hit us within the lifetimes of PBers (none of which actually did) that I'm rather suffering from imminent disaster fatigue.
100% of my day job is now focussed on Brexit.
I have regular meetings with Trade Bodies, DExEU, and others.
It isn’t going to end well.
Simply because idiots like David Davis think we can wait until the last minute.
We can’t.
And the less said about Liam Fox the better.
We are already about to begin FTA negotiations with the EU but the usual whinge, whinge, whinge from you
This Patel farrango has everything for a eruption in the Wolfie Smith set - an attractive right winger female ethnic who isn't muslim and is supportive of the evil Zionism.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
Who is the best remainer candidate - and don't lie and say Hammond.
Rudd because she didn't die during a debate ? Maybe but here majority is too small.
Hunt.
Potentially - more so now he has recanted remainerism.
Courage under fire too.
Remember the Murdoch stuff during phone hacking plus five years as Health Secretary.
There’s going to be helicopters chasing that plane into Heathrow later, now that everyone’s worked out the flight and they’ve got six hours’ notice of it’s arrival.
If I were a TV news station I’d have a crew at Stanstead. Just saying.
Are helicopters allowed to chase planes into Heathrow!?
It's a big TMA/CTZ and I doubt a media copter would get ATC permission for a zone transit, especially as ATC read the news as well. It wouldn't be allowed anywhere near the landing flight path anyway, and what would be the point? It's pictures in the airport of her running from the cameras that the media will want.
If they really want a picture of the plane landing, they can stand somewhere in West London and wait for it to come over
I agree about ATC not permitting a media copter - why should they? But if Mrs May has any sense Ms Patel will be met by an official driver/minder and quietly extracted via a discreet exit. Why give Patel publicity?
At this point, I think May needs to do more than merely a single replacement - she needs to be seen as trying to get ahead of the game, rather than do the minimum necessary. The Patel story is a Westminster one - few people outside politics will be familiar with the Ministerial Code or see anything very worrying about her talking to people when she strictly shouldn't have.
Boris's blunder is more immediately comprehensible and his future depends somewhat on whether the Iranians do in fact increase her sentence. If they do, then no amount of jovial bluster will make up for it. But with luck they won't, as they are still trying to build bridges with Europe to make up for the hositlity from the US.
But the government appears to be entirely dysfunctional - Gove is doing a good job, and some departments seem to be ticking along quietly, but overall it's hard to detect anything more than a bunch of survivors fighting over the drinking water in a sinking lifeboat. If Hammond takes some risks to have an interesting Budget, he might gain in the Next Leader stakes merely by evincing a sense of purpose.
Hammond has zero chance, the Tory membership will now demand a Leaver and I can tell you Rees Mogg's chances are getting better and better by the day. Indeed if he gets on the ballot he will likely win it.
I think he will wait this time though and strike in opposition, making Davis the likely successor for now who and is just about acceptable for members.
If Patel goes I think you are my worthy successor as the worst predictor on this site. Only yesterday you were posting screeds on why she would remain and before that even more verbiage on why Boris was nailed on for leader.
But none of us know what things will happen and none of us know what will be the consequences of those things happening.
And, to be blunt, there's been so many warnings of imminent disasters certain to hit us within the lifetimes of PBers (none of which actually did) that I'm rather suffering from imminent disaster fatigue.
100% of my day job is now focussed on Brexit.
I have regular meetings with Trade Bodies, DExEU, and others.
It isn’t going to end well.
Simply because idiots like David Davis think we can wait until the last minute.
We can’t.
And the less said about Liam Fox the better.
I hear you and I do respect your opinion.
More purposeful and properly prepared leadership from government would be a good thing.
And I don't think anyone here would disagree about the uselesseness of Liam Fox. Yet David Cameron thought Fox a man suitable to be in charge of Britain's military.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
Who is the best remainer candidate - and don't lie and say Hammond.
Rudd because she didn't die during a debate ? Maybe but here majority is too small.
Hunt.
He's been suprisingly successful.
But then I can't remember him actually doing anything. **
Which is a good strategy in a difficult job.
And reminiscent of May.
** Which might well have been the right thing anyway.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
Who is the best remainer candidate - and don't lie and say Hammond.
Rudd because she didn't die during a debate ? Maybe but here majority is too small.
Hunt.
The best remainer candidates are not MPs. That does mean they're not really candidates right now but then the next contest isn't right now.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
The vast majority of Tory voters back ending free movement as even does Corbyn, deluded, even more so when today Rees Mogg has a real chance of succeeding May and will make no compromises with the EU whatsoever.
Regarding the Grimsby story, this is exactly the kind of thing I have been on about. A WTO Brexit will kill businesses like these dead, because the huge delays caused by a hard border adds huge cost which they simply cannot bear. Nor can they afford to wait until the last minute as DD suggested - not that his suggestion was possible anyway. The plug will start to be pulled on places like Grimsby next year as it becomes ever more likely that the cretins in government are hoping for / sliding towards no deal.
Major's government was under siege from his back benches but always remained competent - this lot are an inept bunch of clowns inside the cabinet. But its ok Tories, reducing Britain to ruin and your reputation in ruins won't matter, because Corbyn? You sure that your personal prejudices against the man are matched by the wider electorate?As you confidently said before the election you were going to win by a landslide...
You were warned that things like this could happen and you still voted Leave.
#LifeComesAtYouFast
This is what we were warned would happen:
' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.
It is clear that there would be an immediate shock to our economy.
The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.
In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more. '
But a country with an unbalanced and stagnant economy as the UK has needs radical change.
I’m not talking about what George said, I’m talking about what I said about Brexit before June 23rd.
Sure.
But none of us know what things will happen and none of us know what will be the consequences of those things happening.
And, to be blunt, there's been so many warnings of imminent disasters certain to hit us within the lifetimes of PBers (none of which actually did) that I'm rather suffering from imminent disaster fatigue.
Don't a lot of the negatives flow from the drop in the value of the £ caused by Brexit. We've already had the positives such as our exports being cheaper and the FTSE rise.
But none of us know what things will happen and none of us know what will be the consequences of those things happening.
And, to be blunt, there's been so many warnings of imminent disasters certain to hit us within the lifetimes of PBers (none of which actually did) that I'm rather suffering from imminent disaster fatigue.
100% of my day job is now focussed on Brexit.
I have regular meetings with Trade Bodies, DExEU, and others.
It isn’t going to end well.
Simply because idiots like David Davis think we can wait until the last minute.
We can’t.
And the less said about Liam Fox the better.
I hear you and I do respect your opinion.
More purposeful and properly prepared leadership from government would be a good thing.
And I don't think anyone here would disagree about the uselesseness of Liam Fox. Yet David Cameron thought Fox a man suitable to be in charge of Britain's military.
The military is much more capable of running itself without ministerial intervention. Like other spending departments, it just carries on doing what it did last year, budgets permitting. It's different in departments that exist more-or-less entirely to implement the government's policy, which essentially means the minister's policy unless the PM takes over.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
Who is the best remainer candidate - and don't lie and say Hammond.
Rudd because she didn't die during a debate ? Maybe but here majority is too small.
Hunt.
He's been suprisingly successful.
But then I can't remember him actually doing anything. **
Which is a good strategy in a difficult job.
And reminiscent of May.
** Which might well have been the right thing anyway.
With Health, he's managed to avoid it collapsing despite the howls from Labour.
I thought the Tory lead on the NHS over Labour would collapse once Dave left but Hunt has managed to keep it there.
At this point, I think May needs to do more than merely a single replacement - she needs to be seen as trying to get ahead of the game, rather than do the minimum necessary. The Patel story is a Westminster one - few people outside politics will be familiar with the Ministerial Code or see anything very worrying about her talking to people when she strictly shouldn't have.
Boris's blunder is more immediately comprehensible and his future depends somewhat on whether the Iranians do in fact increase her sentence. If they do, then no amount of jovial bluster will make up for it. But with luck they won't, as they are still trying to build bridges with Europe to make up for the hositlity from the US.
But the government appears to be entirely dysfunctional - Gove is doing a good job, and some departments seem to be ticking along quietly, but overall it's hard to detect anything more than a bunch of survivors fighting over the drinking water in a sinking lifeboat. If Hammond takes some risks to have an interesting Budget, he might gain in the Next Leader stakes merely by evincing a sense of purpose.
Hammond has zero chance, the Tory membership will now demand a Leaver and I can tell you Rees Mogg's chances are getting better and better by the day. Indeed if he gets on the ballot he will likely win it.
I think he will wait this time though and strike in opposition, making Davis the likely successor for now who and is just about acceptable for members.
If Patel goes I think you are my worthy successor as the worst predictor on this site. Only yesterday you were posting screeds on why she would remain and before that even more verbiage on why Boris was nailed on for leader.
I never once said she would remain I said she did nothing wrong in my view, two different thing plus I almost never bet, I come here to argue
But none of us know what things will happen and none of us know what will be the consequences of those things happening.
And, to be blunt, there's been so many warnings of imminent disasters certain to hit us within the lifetimes of PBers (none of which actually did) that I'm rather suffering from imminent disaster fatigue.
100% of my day job is now focussed on Brexit.
I have regular meetings with Trade Bodies, DExEU, and others.
It isn’t going to end well.
Simply because idiots like David Davis think we can wait until the last minute.
We can’t.
And the less said about Liam Fox the better.
We are already about to begin FTA negotiations with the EU but the usual whinge, whinge, whinge from you
Considering you didn't know why a Canadian style FTA was useless for financial services nor that how much financial services contributes to the exchequer I thought you'd be more contrite.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
We should all be paying our 3 quid to join the Conservative and Unionist Party
The Labour 3 quidders ended up with Corbyn, Tory 3 quidders may end up with Mogg
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
But what happened to Boris, you used to say he was nailed on to be Theresa May's replacement.
You were warned that things like this could happen and you still voted Leave.
#LifeComesAtYouFast
I was naive. I assumed that the party who champions free trade and enterprise, who were a keen advocate for the single market, who are largely funded by and representing almost exclusively the interests of big business would not bin off the whole thing.
Behind leaver votes was a simple mood of frustration for their lot now and a hope for something better. When all this washes out it'll be clear that the something better option (EFTA/EEA) was banned from consideration by zealots and fools, delivering for people something worse. Initially they'll try and blame the EU. But the information is already here now about how its the narrow-mindedness and idiocy of May/Davis/Fox et al to blame, not the EU.
It'll kill the Tory Party. Hopefully it won't kill our economy as well.
For goodness sake, even I as a Remain voter knew it was immigration which won it for Leave, especially with the working class (albeit in large part due to Blair's failure to impose transition controls in 2004).
Had it been about sovereignty alone and just switching from the EU to EFTA/EEA I doubt Leave would have got to 52%, especially when we were outside the Eurozone anyway.
Remain's biggest single disaster (in an extensive list) was to set the timing of the Referendum two weeks after the immigration numbers came out, thereby ensuring they would spend the last fortnight on the back foot.
Remain's biggest single disaster (in an extensive list) was to set the timing of the Referendum two weeks after the immigration numbers came out, thereby ensuring they would spend the last fortnight on the back foot.
1.01 political idiocy.
Remains single biggest disaster was having the referendum.
But none of us know what things will happen and none of us know what will be the consequences of those things happening.
And, to be blunt, there's been so many warnings of imminent disasters certain to hit us within the lifetimes of PBers (none of which actually did) that I'm rather suffering from imminent disaster fatigue.
100% of my day job is now focussed on Brexit.
I have regular meetings with Trade Bodies, DExEU, and others.
It isn’t going to end well.
Simply because idiots like David Davis think we can wait until the last minute.
We can’t.
And the less said about Liam Fox the better.
We are already about to begin FTA negotiations with the EU but the usual whinge, whinge, whinge from you
Considering you didn't know why a Canadian style FTA was useless for financial services nor that how much financial services contributes to the exchequer I thought you'd be more contrite.
As I have consistently pointed out the Leave vote was a vote by the North and Midlands to end free movement and regain sovereignty and a FTA for goods would suit them fine.
As for the City even the worst forecasts say it will still remain the largest financial centre in Europe, deal or no deal
Not just prosecuted. Convicted. A criminal, in other words.
Another example of why Corbyn also lacks a moral compass. And shows contempt for the voters, who are the ones cheated when this sort of thing happens.
If the Tories were not so busy committing hari kiri they ought to be making hay with this sort of thing.
I don't see that this can have been for political purposes. What would be the point, in Newham, where there is virtually no competition. Her crime must surely have had some other object?
It doesn’t really matter what her purpose was. She is not fit to hold a job in a political party. The integrity of the electoral process is key.
If Corbyn doesn’t understand that or doesn’t care then it shows, again, that he is not fit to be leader.
There have been too many examples of electoral malpractice for us to be sanguine about this. Many but not all of those examples have involved Labour. But this is not a party political issue. No-one who cheats or tries to manipulate the electoral process should have a role in a political party.
I wasn't disagreeing. Nevertheless it is mysterious.
In my experience, quite a lot of crooks do things which make no sense, even from the criminal’s perspective.
Re Israel, what really should concern Israelis is at some point in the near future the Palestinians decide rather have their own state, they'll decide to take control of the state they are already in.
What will the Israelis do then? A form of apartheid?
By the time the plane touches down, Patel will no doubt have been responsible for the Balfour agreement, building settlements on the West bank, wiping out the Munich '72 terrorists and spying for Harvey Weinstein...
There’s going to be helicopters chasing that plane into Heathrow later, now that everyone’s worked out the flight and they’ve got six hours’ notice of it’s arrival.
If I were a TV news station I’d have a crew at Stanstead. Just saying.
Are helicopters allowed to chase planes into Heathrow!?
It's a big TMA/CTZ and I doubt a media copter would get ATC permission for a zone transit, especially as ATC read the news as well. It wouldn't be allowed anywhere near the landing flight path anyway, and what would be the point? It's pictures in the airport of her running from the cameras that the media will want. (I expect she will be taken by the backdoor VIP route, assuming there is one)
If they really want a picture of the plane landing, they can stand somewhere in West London and wait for it to come over
The media coptors operate in the LTMA and over central London every day though. Maybe someone at the DoT will have them chased off today, or as I suggested upthread they’ll send the minister’s plane somewhere else.
If they do land at LHR then yes, I’d say they’ll have a GCS car meet her at the plane and straight through the VIP exit to avoid the media. That route used to be through the Queen’s Building but I think they knocked it down now. They’ll find a way, unless of course someone higher up wants her to go the usual way out past the media scrum
I’m not talking about what George said, I’m talking about what I said about Brexit before June 23rd.
Sure.
But none of us know what things will happen and none of us know what will be the consequences of those things happening.
And, to be blunt, there's been so many warnings of imminent disasters certain to hit us within the lifetimes of PBers (none of which actually did) that I'm rather suffering from imminent disaster fatigue.
Don't a lot of the negatives flow from the drop in the value of the £ caused by Brexit. We've already had the positives such as our exports being cheaper and the FTSE rise.
But the hit from higher prices has almost worked through the system.
The actual boost to exports (and import substitution) takes longer as it often needs capital investment first.
Remain's biggest single disaster (in an extensive list) was to set the timing of the Referendum two weeks after the immigration numbers came out, thereby ensuring they would spend the last fortnight on the back foot.
1.01 political idiocy.
Remains single biggest disaster was having the referendum.
That had become a politicial imperative. But given that Remain controlled all aspects of it - the framing, the timing, even using taxpayers' money to make its case - it is sure to be a much studied example for decades of How To Fuck Things Up.
Remain's biggest single disaster (in an extensive list) was to set the timing of the Referendum two weeks after the immigration numbers came out, thereby ensuring they would spend the last fortnight on the back foot.
1.01 political idiocy.
Remains single biggest disaster was having the referendum.
A minor setback.
Think of the referendum as Remain's Operation Dynamo.
We've got Overlord to look forward, and in the interregnum, a setback at Dieppe.
You were warned that things like this could happen and you still voted Leave.
#LifeComesAtYouFast
I was naive. I assumed that the party who champions free trade and enterprise, who were a keen advocate for the single market, who are largely funded by and representing almost exclusively the interests of big business would not bin off the whole thing.
Behind leaver votes was a simple mood of frustration for their lot now and a hope for something better. When all this washes out it'll be clear that the something better option (EFTA/EEA) was banned from consideration by zealots and fools, delivering for people something worse. Initially they'll try and blame the EU. But the information is already here now about how its the narrow-mindedness and idiocy of May/Davis/Fox et al to blame, not the EU.
It'll kill the Tory Party. Hopefully it won't kill our economy as well.
For goodness sake, even I as a Remain voter knew it was immigration which won it for Leave, especially with the working class (albeit in large part due to Blair's failure to impose transition controls in 2004).
Had it been about sovereignty alone and just switching from the EU to EFTA/EEA I doubt Leave would have got to 52%, especially when we were outside the Eurozone anyway.
Remain's biggest single disaster (in an extensive list) was to set the timing of the Referendum two weeks after the immigration numbers came out, thereby ensuring they would spend the last fortnight on the back foot.
1.01 political idiocy.
Certainly but the idea there can be Brexit with no new immigration controls at all is absurd
By the time the plane touches down, Patel will no doubt have been responsible for the Balfour agreement, building settlements on the West bank, wiping out the Munich '72 terrorists and spying for Harvey Weinstein...
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
But what happened to Boris, you used to say he was nailed on to be Theresa May's replacement.
He still has a shot, though less than before but it will be 1 of those 3
But none of us know what things will happen and none of us know what will be the consequences of those things happening.
And, to be blunt, there's been so many warnings of imminent disasters certain to hit us within the lifetimes of PBers (none of which actually did) that I'm rather suffering from imminent disaster fatigue.
100% of my day job is now focussed on Brexit.
I have regular meetings with Trade Bodies, DExEU, and others.
It isn’t going to end well.
Simply because idiots like David Davis think we can wait until the last minute.
We can’t.
And the less said about Liam Fox the better.
I hear you and I do respect your opinion.
More purposeful and properly prepared leadership from government would be a good thing.
And I don't think anyone here would disagree about the uselesseness of Liam Fox. Yet David Cameron thought Fox a man suitable to be in charge of Britain's military.
The military is much more capable of running itself without ministerial intervention. Like other spending departments, it just carries on doing what it did last year, budgets permitting. It's different in departments that exist more-or-less entirely to implement the government's policy, which essentially means the minister's policy unless the PM takes over.
The defence cuts of 2011 do not seem to have been well handled.
How much of that was the fault of Fox I don't know.
O/t but whenever there is a Brexit discussion rolling on here there is always the question (usually from Remainers for obvious reasons) about what "type" of Brexit Leavers want. It's a totally fair question clearly as there are multiple options.
As a counterpoint to this the question seems to be never asked to those who would like ( if possible through either the UK giving up on it all and revoking article 50 or a second referendum answering Remainers prayers or indeed any other way) Brexit being reversed - if we were not leaving the EU what form of the EU would be acceptable to you?
Would Remainers expect the EU to remain as it is now? This is clearly unlikely as key States seem to be pushing for ever closer Union. How far would Remainers allow the EU to go before they felt uncomfortable? Would they expect that the UK would retain its slightly detached relationship or do they accept that we would have to eventually go all-in? Or would they, in remaining detached, be happy that the UK would be seen as the fly in the ointment to the European Project and we would receive continual brickbats from those in the EU who feel we are the problem?
How much EU is acceptable to Remainers on a scale of "current structure" through to UNited States of Europe?
My feeling is that if Brexit was reversed we are still going to be left with ongoing problems as only a small portion of the UK population would likely stomach the ultimate end point that many in the EU want. So we could end up like the metaphorical boiled frog who finds they sat there until it was too late.
Brexit to me seems to be the solution to the old German saying "better a painful end than endless pain".....
Not just prosecuted. Convicted. A criminal, in other words.
Another example of why Corbyn also lacks a moral compass. And shows contempt for the voters, who are the ones cheated when this sort of thing happens.
If the Tories were not so busy committing hari kiri they ought to be making hay with this sort of thing.
I don't see that this can have been for political purposes. What would be the point, in Newham, where there is virtually no competition. Her crime must surely have had some other object?
Perhaps her activities are why there is (apparently) virtually no competition.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
But what happened to Boris, you used to say he was nailed on to be Theresa May's replacement.
He still has a shot, though less than before but it will be 1 of those 3
Oh for the love of God! Pretty much anyone of us on here could do a better job than that lot!
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
But what happened to Boris, you used to say he was nailed on to be Theresa May's replacement.
He still has a shot, though less than before but it will be 1 of those 3
Oh for the love of God! Pretty much anyone of us on here could do a better job than that lot!
If chosen, I promise that I would have more entertaining and baroque sex scandals in my administration.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
But what happened to Boris, you used to say he was nailed on to be Theresa May's replacement.
He still has a shot, though less than before but it will be 1 of those 3
Oh for the love of God! Pretty much anyone of us on here could do a better job than that lot!
I think it is time for a pb.com intervention.... As a team, we cover pretty much all bases. We certainly have a good track record at forensic examination of - and walking around - bear traps. Unlike most of our elected representatives.
“Leaver” and “competent” seem to be mutually exclusive. Very soon “Tory” and “competent” will fall into that category.
There has been some discussion that if Priti is sacked, Tezza needs to maintain the delicate Brexiteer balance in the cabinet.
Actually, no.
If she really wanted to reclaim her Premiership, she would announce that every Brexiteer appointed to cabinet has proven themselves to be inadequate, which happens to be true.
Sack BoZo, and Davis, and dare Peter Bone to launch a leadership challenge.
The best remainer candidates are not MPs. That does mean they're not really candidates right now but then the next contest isn't right now.
We've had back to back Remainers as Con Leaders - Cameron and then May .
Perhaps it's time for a Leave leader ?
Perhaps it’s time for a competent leader?
Far from me to suggest "Remainer" and "competent" are mutually exclusive but there is a pattern...
“Leaver” and “competent” seem to be mutually exclusive. Very soon “Tory” and “competent” will fall into that category.
'Competent' in your eyes of course being staying in the EU or EU in all but name and trying to dodge the Leave vote or ensure it is a vote in nothing but name only
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
But what happened to Boris, you used to say he was nailed on to be Theresa May's replacement.
He still has a shot, though less than before but it will be 1 of those 3
Oh for the love of God! Pretty much anyone of us on here could do a better job than that lot!
Tory members are not seeking votes of centre left EUphiles like you
Perhaps her activities are why there is (apparently) virtually no competition.
Really ? Do yourself a favour and have a look at the Newham voting numbers.
Back in 2004, there was a real fear in Labour circles the Party would lose seats in places like Newham and Tower Hamlets to Respect who were, along with the Lib Dems, the only clearly anti-Iraq War party out there at the time. Indeed, Respect did win a few seats in Newham and came close in some others. Whether that was the motivation for Ms Thompson's actions I don't know.
That's ancient history - Labour's domination of Newham is absolute and they will almost certainly win all 60 seats next year. There's no sign, unlike Kensington & Chelsea, of an independent centrist slate being put together here at this time.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
Who is the best remainer candidate - and don't lie and say Hammond.
Rudd because she didn't die during a debate ? Maybe but here majority is too small.
The best remainer candidates are not MPs. That does mean they're not really candidates right now but then the next contest isn't right now.
We've had back to back Remainers as Con Leaders - Cameron and then May .
Perhaps it's time for a Leave leader ?
It would be helpful if parties picked their leaders on the basis, at least in the main, of their ability. For the Tories, what matters is their practical ability to deliver Brexit rather than their personal view, which, given the pressure of forces at work, has little scope to make itself felt other than obstructively.
Perhaps her activities are why there is (apparently) virtually no competition.
Really ? Do yourself a favour and have a look at the Newham voting numbers.
Back in 2004, there was a real fear in Labour circles the Party would lose seats in places like Newham and Tower Hamlets to Respect who were, along with the Lib Dems, the only clearly anti-Iraq War party out there at the time. Indeed, Respect did win a few seats in Newham and came close in some others. Whether that was the motivation for Ms Thompson's actions I don't know.
That's ancient history - Labour's domination of Newham is absolute and they will almost certainly win all 60 seats next year. There's no sign, unlike Kensington & Chelsea, of an independent centrist slate being put together here at this time.
There was also the small matter of the London Mayoral election, where every vote counts individually. Ken won by piling up votes in safe Labour seats.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
But what happened to Boris, you used to say he was nailed on to be Theresa May's replacement.
He still has a shot, though less than before but it will be 1 of those 3
Oh for the love of God! Pretty much anyone of us on here could do a better job than that lot!
I think it is time for a pb.com intervention.... As a team, we cover pretty much all bases. We certainly have a good track record at forensic examination of - and walking around - bear traps. Unlike most of our elected representatives.
'Competent' in your eyes of course being staying in the EU or EU in all but name and trying to dodge the Leave vote or ensure it is a vote in nothing but name only
There was a time when the Conservative Party genuinely tried to act in the best interests of the country. Margaret Thatcher instigated a number of policies which were fiercely criticised at the outset but once applied were seen to be of benefit to the country as well as some which weren't.
It is that pragmatism which has allowed the Conservative Party to evolve - a recognition that as times and circumstances change, the Party needs to change with them.
At this stage we cannot know or be sure but were it to become incontrovertibly evident that leaving the EU would cause significant economic damage, a pragmatic Party of Government would have to turn round and say "yes, we know you voted to leave but it is clearly not in our interests to do so on the terms currently available".
I'm NOT saying that's will happen or what should happen but it is what could happen. The Will of the People isn't an absolute - Parties, Governments, individuals and societies make mistakes and take the wrong path.
I'm not saying we have - we could have, I don't think we have currently but if those who forecast the worst turn out to have a better track record than has been the case so far, it's ridiculous for any Party to stick its head in the sand and carry on citing some legitimacy when the interests of the country suggest another path might be best.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
But what happened to Boris, you used to say he was nailed on to be Theresa May's replacement.
He still has a shot, though less than before but it will be 1 of those 3
Oh for the love of God! Pretty much anyone of us on here could do a better job than that lot!
Tory members are not seeking votes of centre left EUphiles like you
Well, if they wave 2 fingers at potential voters then the voters, including this one, will wave 2 fingers back and they can kiss goodbye to their chance of being in power.
Still I am unaccountably pleased - and not a little surprised - at being described as a “centre left EUphile”.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
The key point is that no relationship with the EU, or with Europe generally, is possible, except on the EU's terms. We might disparage it, but that's what it is. So we need to understand what the EU would offer us and make our choice. The EU would probably offer:
- Full membership of the EU. The only option that we formally rejected in a referendum, but we would retain the greatest freedom of trade and prospects.
- Norway-style. EFTA/EEA, Customs Union etc. Gives us a large part, but by no means all, of what we get with membership. It comes as a "take it or leave it, and if you take it you do what you are told" package.
- Canada-style preferential trade agreement. The most uncertain outcome, complex and long drawn out. If agreement is reached it will likely be very unfavourable to the UK, with very little on services, which are our strong point. There is no transition to a PTA. In the meantime we would be on:
- No deal, WTO. This is the absence of an arrangement.
Theresa May's successor, whether Leaver or Remainer, will need to face up to this choice, as Mrs May has refused to so. She rejected all likely options in her Florence speech. A hard Leaver might say, WTO it is. But WTO is Brexit failure. The Conservatives need Brexit at least to be something that people can live with, if not an actual success. Nominally, the government is signed up to a Canada style deal (with a + figleaf), but they haven't thought it through. Canada is a variation on WTO - failure with a possible mediocre improvement later. There will be a big pressure to do something better.
Mrs May's successor needs to be someone who can sell EEA to Tory supporters, along with the idea of the Single Market, Freedom of Movement, ECJ oversight with no direct influence over our affairs. I can't see them pushing to rejoin the EU.
Otherwise hand over to Jeremy Corbyn and he will do it anyway.
That makes no sense. If the assessments are "done", surely they are written down? Or were they communicated verbally and everyone involved has forgotten what they said?
Comments
If I were a TV news station I’d have a crew at Stanstead. Just saying.
Betting PostF1 results have been patchy at best recently, so, as ever, do at your own risk and only bet what you can afford to lose. Anyway, with the disclaimer aside, I've made three early bets on Brazil.
Verstappen for pole each way at 7.5 on Betfair Sportsbooks (third the odds for top 2). Ricciardo has been outqualified by each of his three different team mates (Vettel, Kvyat, Verstappen) at the circuit. It's also tight and twisty for the most part, which should play to the strength of the Red Bull.
Also backed, with Ladbrokes + boost, Ricciardo to not be classified at 5.25. He's had a DNF at the last three races in a row, so it's as simple as that.
Last, again with Ladbrokes and boost, backed Verstappen to win at 5.25. In the last four races he's had two wins and a second place.
But you're right - he certainly wouldn't be an ill informed arse when talking about Iran etc.
It's the same as the sexual harassment stuff. Tories lose more than labour.
Lib dems don't have anything to lose, but will end up losing anyway.
That last one might be scuppered if he changes engine components pre-race, as has been suggested...
I have regular meetings with Trade Bodies, DExEU, and others.
It isn’t going to end well.
Simply because idiots like David Davis think we can wait until the last minute.
We can’t.
And the less said about Liam Fox the better.
The detail was so excruciating, we couldn't bear to write it down ?
I'm particularly annoyed because I actually remembered to check if he had penalties on Twitter and nothing showed up.
*hangs self*
This is the US all over again, where 2/3 of my tips were perfectly intelligent and none came off because Ricciardo's engine exploded and Verstappen had a huge penalty.
*sighs*
Edited extra bit: ah, you meant Ricciardo, not Verstappen. My mistake.
It would be interesting to know how much the NHS had improved health over the last 70 years compared to other changes in housing, worktypes, reduction in smoking, improved health and safety etc.
As an aside, I don't think Mike's right to say that May stopped Boris becoming PM. Had May resigned post-GE, the Tories would have had to have gone into opposition (which they should have done anyway); with no leader, there could have been no deal with the DUP - who would they have negotiated with and on what basis? Boris would not have been crowned unopposed. It was precisely the same logic that enabled me to be confident that Cameron would imminently become PM as soon as Brown announced he was stepping down as Labour leader in 2010: that completely undermined Labour's negotiating position with the Lib Dems which inevitably meant that they could only do a deal with the Tories. Mike may very well be right to say imply May not resigning stopped Boris from becoming Tory leader though.
If Corbyn doesn’t understand that or doesn’t care then it shows, again, that he is not fit to be leader.
There have been too many examples of electoral malpractice for us to be sanguine about this. Many but not all of those examples have involved Labour. But this is not a party political issue. No-one who cheats or tries to manipulate the electoral process should have a role in a political party.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
Hence the nudge about Stanstead, which is where it may end up - with a couple of Typhoons in close formation.
She'll probably be pissed off that this has all happened within a couple of weeks or so of the Budget, which makes Hammond invulnerable to being asked to leave. Otherwise, a move back to FS might have been an option - if he'd take it: he's surely in a position to refuse.
Hasn't done Gove any harm - he's just been welcomed back into to the Brexit team.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
Rudd because she didn't die during a debate ? Maybe but here majority is too small.
If they really want a picture of the plane landing, they can stand somewhere in West London and wait for it to come over
More purposeful and properly prepared leadership from government would be a good thing.
And I don't think anyone here would disagree about the uselesseness of Liam Fox. Yet David Cameron thought Fox a man suitable to be in charge of Britain's military.
He could yet be next PM, or if Davis gets that job next SOS for DExEU.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2n-blwYJ4s
I fear some sort of explosion in bubble.
Remember the Murdoch stuff during phone hacking plus five years as Health Secretary.
He has steel.
I’d have made him Northern Ireland Secretary.
But then I can't remember him actually doing anything. **
Which is a good strategy in a difficult job.
And reminiscent of May.
** Which might well have been the right thing anyway.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
Perhaps it's time for a Leave leader ?
I thought the Tory lead on the NHS over Labour would collapse once Dave left but Hunt has managed to keep it there.
1.01 political idiocy.
As for the City even the worst forecasts say it will still remain the largest financial centre in Europe, deal or no deal
What will the Israelis do then? A form of apartheid?
If they do land at LHR then yes, I’d say they’ll have a GCS car meet her at the plane and straight through the VIP exit to avoid the media. That route used to be through the Queen’s Building but I think they knocked it down now. They’ll find a way, unless of course someone higher up wants her to go the usual way out past the media scrum
The actual boost to exports (and import substitution) takes longer as it often needs capital investment first.
Along with the Conservative Party, 2017.
Think of the referendum as Remain's Operation Dynamo.
We've got Overlord to look forward, and in the interregnum, a setback at Dieppe.
She's a pound shop Liam Fox.
How much of that was the fault of Fox I don't know.
As a counterpoint to this the question seems to be never asked to those who would like ( if possible through either the UK giving up on it all and revoking article 50 or a second referendum answering Remainers prayers or indeed any other way) Brexit being reversed - if we were not leaving the EU what form of the EU would be acceptable to you?
Would Remainers expect the EU to remain as it is now? This is clearly unlikely as key States seem to be pushing for ever closer Union. How far would Remainers allow the EU to go before they felt uncomfortable? Would they expect that the UK would retain its slightly detached relationship or do they accept that we would have to eventually go all-in? Or would they, in remaining detached, be happy that the UK would be seen as the fly in the ointment to the European Project and we would receive continual brickbats from those in the EU who feel we are the problem?
How much EU is acceptable to Remainers on a scale of "current structure" through to UNited States of Europe?
My feeling is that if Brexit was reversed we are still going to be left with ongoing problems as only a small portion of the UK population would likely stomach the ultimate end point that many in the EU want. So we could end up like the metaphorical boiled frog who finds they sat there until it was too late.
Brexit to me seems to be the solution to the old German saying "better a painful end than endless pain".....
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/90403/david-davis-slapped-down-speaker-over-brexit
Actually, no.
If she really wanted to reclaim her Premiership, she would announce that every Brexiteer appointed to cabinet has proven themselves to be inadequate, which happens to be true.
Sack BoZo, and Davis, and dare Peter Bone to launch a leadership challenge.
Back in 2004, there was a real fear in Labour circles the Party would lose seats in places like Newham and Tower Hamlets to Respect who were, along with the Lib Dems, the only clearly anti-Iraq War party out there at the time. Indeed, Respect did win a few seats in Newham and came close in some others. Whether that was the motivation for Ms Thompson's actions I don't know.
That's ancient history - Labour's domination of Newham is absolute and they will almost certainly win all 60 seats next year. There's no sign, unlike Kensington & Chelsea, of an independent centrist slate being put together here at this time.
It is that pragmatism which has allowed the Conservative Party to evolve - a recognition that as times and circumstances change, the Party needs to change with them.
At this stage we cannot know or be sure but were it to become incontrovertibly evident that leaving the EU would cause significant economic damage, a pragmatic Party of Government would have to turn round and say "yes, we know you voted to leave but it is clearly not in our interests to do so on the terms currently available".
I'm NOT saying that's will happen or what should happen but it is what could happen. The Will of the People isn't an absolute - Parties, Governments, individuals and societies make mistakes and take the wrong path.
I'm not saying we have - we could have, I don't think we have currently but if those who forecast the worst turn out to have a better track record than has been the case so far, it's ridiculous for any Party to stick its head in the sand and carry on citing some legitimacy when the interests of the country suggest another path might be best.
Still I am unaccountably pleased - and not a little surprised - at being described as a “centre left EUphile”.
- Full membership of the EU. The only option that we formally rejected in a referendum, but we would retain the greatest freedom of trade and prospects.
- Norway-style. EFTA/EEA, Customs Union etc. Gives us a large part, but by no means all, of what we get with membership. It comes as a "take it or leave it, and if you take it you do what you are told" package.
- Canada-style preferential trade agreement. The most uncertain outcome, complex and long drawn out. If agreement is reached it will likely be very unfavourable to the UK, with very little on services, which are our strong point. There is no transition to a PTA. In the meantime we would be on:
- No deal, WTO. This is the absence of an arrangement.
Theresa May's successor, whether Leaver or Remainer, will need to face up to this choice, as Mrs May has refused to so. She rejected all likely options in her Florence speech. A hard Leaver might say, WTO it is. But WTO is Brexit failure. The Conservatives need Brexit at least to be something that people can live with, if not an actual success. Nominally, the government is signed up to a Canada style deal (with a + figleaf), but they haven't thought it through. Canada is a variation on WTO - failure with a possible mediocre improvement later. There will be a big pressure to do something better.
Mrs May's successor needs to be someone who can sell EEA to Tory supporters, along with the idea of the Single Market, Freedom of Movement, ECJ oversight with no direct influence over our affairs. I can't see them pushing to rejoin the EU.
Otherwise hand over to Jeremy Corbyn and he will do it anyway.