If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
But what happened to Boris, you used to say he was nailed on to be Theresa May's replacement.
He still has a shot, though less than before but it will be 1 of those 3
Oh for the love of God! Pretty much anyone of us on here could do a better job than that lot!
I think it is time for a pb.com intervention.... As a team, we cover pretty much all bases. We certainly have a good track record at forensic examination of - and walking around - bear traps. Unlike most of our elected representatives.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
But what happened to Boris, you used to say he was nailed on to be Theresa May's replacement.
He still has a shot, though less than before but it will be 1 of those 3
Oh for the love of God! Pretty much anyone of us on here could do a better job than that lot!
I think it is time for a pb.com intervention.... As a team, we cover pretty much all bases. We certainly have a good track record at forensic examination of - and walking around - bear traps. Unlike most of our elected representatives.
That makes no sense. If the assessments are "done", surely they are written down? Or were they communicated verbally and everyone involved has forgotten what they said?
The best remainer candidates are not MPs. That does mean they're not really candidates right now but then the next contest isn't right now.
We've had back to back Remainers as Con Leaders - Cameron and then May .
Perhaps it's time for a Leave leader ?
Perhaps it’s time for a competent leader?
Far from me to suggest "Remainer" and "competent" are mutually exclusive but there is a pattern...
“Leaver” and “competent” seem to be mutually exclusive. Very soon “Tory” and “competent” will fall into that category.
'Competent' in your eyes of course being staying in the EU or EU in all but name and trying to dodge the Leave vote or ensure it is a vote in nothing but name only
You might try reading some of my headers or comments.
Competence has nothing to do with Leave or Remain.
There was - and is - a competent way of implementing Brexit, regardless of one’s views on the referendum result. Regrettably, the government has not chosen it. That is unforgivable because it will likely harm Britain, it will likely harm some of the most vulnerable in Britain and it will also likely harm EU member states. And whatever one thinks of their tactics or strategy EU member states are not the enemy.
I really wish things were otherwise. I really do. Not least because I view the prospect of a Corbyn/McDonnell government with some concern.
It may have been mentioned earlier down thread - apologies if so. And I'm not exactly one who gets easily offended and requires a safe-space. But a cartoon of MPs commiting suicide, less than 24 hours after Carl Sargent's death? I think "too soon" applies in this case....
'Competent' in your eyes of course being staying in the EU or EU in all but name and trying to dodge the Leave vote or ensure it is a vote in nothing but name only
There was a time when the Conservative Party genuinely tried to act in the best interests of the country. Margaret Thatcher instigated a number of policies which were fiercely criticised at the outset but once applied were seen to be of benefit to the country as well as some which weren't.
It is that pragmatism which has allowed the Conservative Party to evolve - a recognition that as times and circumstances change, the Party needs to change with them.
At this stage we cannot know or be sure but were it to become incontrovertibly evident that leaving the EU would cause significant economic damage, a pragmatic Party of Government would have to turn round and say "yes, we know you voted to leave but it is clearly not in our interests to do so on the terms currently available".
I'm NOT saying that's will happen or what should happen but it is what could happen. The Will of the People isn't an absolute - Parties, Governments, individuals and societies make mistakes and take the wrong path.
I'm not saying we have - we could have, I don't think we have currently but if those who forecast the worst turn out to have a better track record than has been the case so far, it's ridiculous for any Party to stick its head in the sand and carry on citing some legitimacy when the interests of the country suggest another path might be best.
The 'will of the people' point is easily ticked off with a second referendum, take the terms, or stay. The question is working out the political path that will take us there.
There was also the small matter of the London Mayoral election, where every vote counts individually. Ken won by piling up votes in safe Labour seats.
Actually, Ken won in 2004 quite easily and even won on first preference votes in places like Richmond and Kingston. Norris only won in the outer suburbs along with Westminster, K&C and H&F. According to Wiki, Ken won 36.8% of first preferences to Norris on 29.1% so it's hard to see how any alleged fraud would have had an impact.
There was a much more fragmented vote - Simon Hughes got 15% while both UKIP and Respect did pretty well.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
But what happened to Boris, you used to say he was nailed on to be Theresa May's replacement.
He still has a shot, though less than before but it will be 1 of those 3
Oh for the love of God! Pretty much anyone of us on here could do a better job than that lot!
If chosen, I promise that I would have more entertaining and baroque sex scandals in my administration.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
But what happened to Boris, you used to say he was nailed on to be Theresa May's replacement.
He still has a shot, though less than before but it will be 1 of those 3
Oh for the love of God! Pretty much anyone of us on here could do a better job than that lot!
I think it is time for a pb.com intervention.... As a team, we cover pretty much all bases. We certainly have a good track record at forensic examination of - and walking around - bear traps. Unlike most of our elected representatives.
Perhaps her activities are why there is (apparently) virtually no competition.
Really ? Do yourself a favour and have a look at the Newham voting numbers.
Back in 2004, there was a real fear in Labour circles the Party would lose seats in places like Newham and Tower Hamlets to Respect who were, along with the Lib Dems, the only clearly anti-Iraq War party out there at the time. Indeed, Respect did win a few seats in Newham and came close in some others. Whether that was the motivation for Ms Thompson's actions I don't know.
That's ancient history - Labour's domination of Newham is absolute and they will almost certainly win all 60 seats next year. There's no sign, unlike Kensington & Chelsea, of an independent centrist slate being put together here at this time.
There was also the small matter of the London Mayoral election, where every vote counts individually. Ken won by piling up votes in safe Labour seats.
True. But whether committing a criminal offence to gather a few tens of extra votes would be seriously worthwhile in an electorate the size of London is highly questionable. Fraud to manipulate the register or postal vote surely only makes sense at ward level, or just possibly at constituency level if it is likely to be tight (and even then). I would have guessed that the register entries were intended for some sort of financial or benefits fraud.
Remember the Alastair Campbell doctrine about how if a story continues to roll over day after day the target for the stories has to go? The target isn't an individual any more, its the entire government.
I remember that classic Spitting Image sketch of Major's cabinet in a brewery unable to organise a piss-up. May can only dream of being as competent as that. The level of rank cowardice amongst Tory MPs is stunning - if they think this is competent government then they're so stupid as to be unfit for office. If they accept this isn't competent but won't act then they're so irresponsible as to be unfit for office.
If we do end up remaining, a second referendum (or possibly a GE with that question at its heart) is a lot better than not having one. However, that will not extinguish suspicions that democracy doesn't count if it doesn't go the way the Establishment wants.
I fear bitterness and division will, after an initial period of probable cooling off, intensify. Every time the EU does something against our interest or which is unpopular here, people will be reminded they vote to leave and that never happened.
The political class, however, will be encouraged to never again hold such a vote due to both the horrendous nature of the campaign and the ensuing political fallout. Which will only heighten frustration felt by many in the country.
A potential way out would be a form of associate membership. But I'll believe that when I see it.
Remember the Alastair Campbell doctrine about how if a story continues to roll over day after day the target for the stories has to go? The target isn't an individual any more, its the entire government.
I remember that classic Spitting Image sketch of Major's cabinet in a brewery unable to organise a piss-up. May can only dream of being as competent as that. The level of rank cowardice amongst Tory MPs is stunning - if they think this is competent government then they're so stupid as to be unfit for office. If they accept this isn't competent but won't act then they're so irresponsible as to be unfit for office.
Ah, shut up. Your lot lost the election. The voters wanted Corbyn bed-blocked. That's as much as this lot need to do for five years....
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
But what happened to Boris, you used to say he was nailed on to be Theresa May's replacement.
He still has a shot, though less than before but it will be 1 of those 3
Oh for the love of God! Pretty much anyone of us on here could do a better job than that lot!
I think it is time for a pb.com intervention.... As a team, we cover pretty much all bases. We certainly have a good track record at forensic examination of - and walking around - bear traps. Unlike most of our elected representatives.
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
But what happened to Boris, you used to say he was nailed on to be Theresa May's replacement.
He still has a shot, though less than before but it will be 1 of those 3
Oh for the love of God! Pretty much anyone of us on here could do a better job than that lot!
Tory members are not seeking votes of centre left EUphiles like you
Then it would appear that Tory members are not seeking to stay in govt...
Remember the Alastair Campbell doctrine about how if a story continues to roll over day after day the target for the stories has to go? The target isn't an individual any more, its the entire government.
I remember that classic Spitting Image sketch of Major's cabinet in a brewery unable to organise a piss-up. May can only dream of being as competent as that. The level of rank cowardice amongst Tory MPs is stunning - if they think this is competent government then they're so stupid as to be unfit for office. If they accept this isn't competent but won't act then they're so irresponsible as to be unfit for office.
May couldn't even organise the bus to get the Cabinet to the Brewery.
There’s going to be helicopters chasing that plane into Heathrow later, now that everyone’s worked out the flight and they’ve got six hours’ notice of it’s arrival.
If I were a TV news station I’d have a crew at Stanstead. Just saying.
Are helicopters allowed to chase planes into Heathrow!?
If they’re careful about it, they can be allowed close enough to get good pictures from a couple of miles away to the north or south.
Hence the nudge about Stanstead, which is where it may end up - with a couple of Typhoons in close formation.
Despite the shiny new 787 Kenya Airways doesn't have inflight wifi - so Ms Patel will be oblivious to the gathering storm.....
Priti Patel is a symptom of the malaise in the government, not the heart of the problem. Therefore just replacing her would an inadequate response. Theresa May should, as I posted yesterday, convert this mess into an opportunity by a wide-ranging reshuffle which imposes some order and purpose on government, and brings in fresh talent.
However, I am sure we will get the inadequate response, and the government will limp on to the next crisis.
Priti Patel is a symptom of the malaise in the government, not the heart of the problem. Therefore just replacing her would an inadequate response. Theresa May should, as I posted yesterday, convert this mess into an opportunity by a wide-ranging reshuffle which imposes some order and purpose on government, and brings in fresh talent.
However, I am sure we will get the inadequate response, and the government will limp on to the next crisis.
The 'will of the people' point is easily ticked off with a second referendum, take the terms, or stay. The question is working out the political path that will take us there.
The problem, my friend, is where I, as a LD, part company with the Party. There is no provision within A50 for a referendum let alone a referendum which stops the process.
The A50 process can be extended by mutual consent but not unilaterally. Nor can we have a ballot paper whose only options are accept the treaty or remain. The option to leave without an agreement has to be available - there are a significant minority who wish we had left on June 24th 2016 and they cannot be excluded from having a say or being forced to accept a treaty they don't want.
So it's a ballot with three choices:
1) Accept the A50 Treaty (assuming there's one to accept) 2) Leave the EU without an agreement 3) Remain in the EU (under the pre 23/6/16 terms presumably).
Actually, there should be a fourth option - to continue the A50 process and seek a better agreement for later ratification.
You can see why no one wants a new vote and let's stop calling it a second referendum because it sounds like a re-run of the first which it palpably isn't. In 2016 we should have voted not on remaining in the EU at all but on the treaty which Cameron was supposed to get and the consequences of rejecting that Treaty would presumably have been analogous to voting to LEAVE.
HYUFD, for all his increasingly vitriolic efforts to defend the Conservative position, makes the not unreasonable point that it is all about immigration. Whether it had happened in 2004 or later the migration of hundreds of thousands of people from eastern and central Europe to Britain has had a huge cultural, social and economic impact on many parts of the country.
In my part of London, the infrastructure (transport, schools, medical facilities) has been overwhelmed by the new arrivals while the housing market has been fundamentally affected and more tragically, we have created a new generation of East End slums, multi-occupancy properties echoing earlier times when overcrowded dwellings marked out the working class East End. The slums are back - they are different but they are here.
Remember the Alastair Campbell doctrine about how if a story continues to roll over day after day the target for the stories has to go? The target isn't an individual any more, its the entire government.
I remember that classic Spitting Image sketch of Major's cabinet in a brewery unable to organise a piss-up. May can only dream of being as competent as that. The level of rank cowardice amongst Tory MPs is stunning - if they think this is competent government then they're so stupid as to be unfit for office. If they accept this isn't competent but won't act then they're so irresponsible as to be unfit for office.
Ah, shut up. Your lot lost the election. The voters wanted Corbyn bed-blocked. That's as much as this lot need to do for five years....
Oh, and deliver Brexit.
Is it good enough for the Tory party to be an utter shambles in government? That's the way to winning future elections is it? As for bed-blocking Corbyn, thats the script from the start of the election campaign where you lot thought landslide nailed on. As it is a few dozen voters in a small handful of seats and it would have been Corbyn in Downing Street as you very well know.
Regardless of party politics now more than ever we need a functioning capable government. We don't have one. They need to remove May - its in everyone's interest including their own. Voters remember shambolic governments long after the key players have been removed, tarnishing the party. Happened to us, happened to the Tories before, happening to the Tories now.
Re Israel, what really should concern Israelis is at some point in the near future the Palestinians decide rather have their own state, they'll decide to take control of the state they are already in.
What will the Israelis do then? A form of apartheid?
A very perceptive post though in the occupied territories apartheid already exists.
"But the JC understands, from two different sources, that Ms Patel did disclose the meeting with Mr Rotem but was told by Number 10 not to include it as it would embarrass the Foreign and Commonwealth Office."
You might try reading some of my headers or comments.
Competence has nothing to do with Leave or Remain.
There was - and is - a competent way of implementing Brexit, regardless of one’s views on the referendum result. Regrettably, the government has not chosen it. That is unforgivable because it will likely harm Britain, it will likely harm some of the most vulnerable in Britain and it will also likely harm EU member states. And whatever one thinks of their tactics or strategy EU member states are not the enemy.
I really wish things were otherwise. I really do. Not least because I view the prospect of a Corbyn/McDonnell government with some concern.
I don't think I agree. This government IS incompetent but a competent government would be up against the same realities and contradictions of Brexit. In fact this government's incompetence largely stems from those contradictions, which they are incapable of resolving.
There is only one way to do Brexit properly, which is come what may. We don't look for hardship, but accept it as the price to pay for our principles. If Brexit is sold on very fuzzy principles and no cost, you have a problem.
Remember the Alastair Campbell doctrine about how if a story continues to roll over day after day the target for the stories has to go? The target isn't an individual any more, its the entire government.
I remember that classic Spitting Image sketch of Major's cabinet in a brewery unable to organise a piss-up. May can only dream of being as competent as that. The level of rank cowardice amongst Tory MPs is stunning - if they think this is competent government then they're so stupid as to be unfit for office. If they accept this isn't competent but won't act then they're so irresponsible as to be unfit for office.
May couldn't even organise the bus to get the Cabinet to the Brewery.
Well, once they'd sprayed over the '£350m for the NHS', that'd at least be a start.
"On 24 August - the same day as Ms Patel spoke to Mr Netanyahu - Middle East minister Alistair Burt and David Quarrey, the British Ambassador to Israel, met Michael Oren, Deputy Minister at the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office. According to the notes of the meeting, Mr Oren referred to Ms Patel having had a successful meeting with Mr Netanyahu earlier "
Remember the Alastair Campbell doctrine about how if a story continues to roll over day after day the target for the stories has to go? The target isn't an individual any more, its the entire government.
I remember that classic Spitting Image sketch of Major's cabinet in a brewery unable to organise a piss-up. May can only dream of being as competent as that. The level of rank cowardice amongst Tory MPs is stunning - if they think this is competent government then they're so stupid as to be unfit for office. If they accept this isn't competent but won't act then they're so irresponsible as to be unfit for office.
May couldn't even organise the bus to get the Cabinet to the Brewery.
Well, once they'd sprayed over the '£350m for the NHS', that'd at least be a start.
Remember the Alastair Campbell doctrine about how if a story continues to roll over day after day the target for the stories has to go? The target isn't an individual any more, its the entire government.
I remember that classic Spitting Image sketch of Major's cabinet in a brewery unable to organise a piss-up. May can only dream of being as competent as that. The level of rank cowardice amongst Tory MPs is stunning - if they think this is competent government then they're so stupid as to be unfit for office. If they accept this isn't competent but won't act then they're so irresponsible as to be unfit for office.
May couldn't even organise the bus to get the Cabinet to the Brewery.
Well, once they'd sprayed over the '£350m for the NHS', that'd at least be a start.
The problem, my friend, is where I, as a LD, part company with the Party. There is no provision within A50 for a referendum let alone a referendum which stops the process.
The A50 process can be extended by mutual consent but not unilaterally. Nor can we have a ballot paper whose only options are accept the treaty or remain. The option to leave without an agreement has to be available - there are a significant minority who wish we had left on June 24th 2016 and they cannot be excluded from having a say or being forced to accept a treaty they don't want.
So it's a ballot with three choices:
1) Accept the A50 Treaty (assuming there's one to accept) 2) Leave the EU without an agreement 3) Remain in the EU (under the pre 23/6/16 terms presumably).
(snip for length)
HYUFD, for all his increasingly vitriolic efforts to defend the Conservative position, makes the not unreasonable point that it is all about immigration. Whether it had happened in 2004 or later the migration of hundreds of thousands of people from eastern and central Europe to Britain has had a huge cultural, social and economic impact on many parts of the country.
In my part of London, the infrastructure (transport, schools, medical facilities) has been overwhelmed by the new arrivals while the housing market has been fundamentally affected and more tragically, we have created a new generation of East End slums, multi-occupancy properties echoing earlier times when overcrowded dwellings marked out the working class East End. The slums are back - they are different but they are here.
Your unilateral/consent point is legally doubtful. But in any event I would expect consent will be forthcoming. It's also quite possible that a late concession - such as a five-year special arrangement - on immigration might also be forthcoming, a la TB.
It is up to the UK Gvt (or Parl't) whether or not to have a referendum on the leaving terms - A50 doesn't come into it.
If there's a deal, there is no reason why leaving without a deal should be on the table at all. Leaving with a deal fulfils the 2016 vote precisely.
I agree with you about the impact on East London, but this has relatively little to do with the EU. London needs the workforce, the background to the housing crisis is well known, the financial system is stacked to fuel asset price inflation, there are few bars to overseas property investment, and the rental market is wide open to exploitation on favourable lending and tax terms (slowly being withdrawn).
@PolhomeEditor: If this is true - and @stephenpollard is very good - then Number 10 have been misleading journalists all week about what Theresa May knew and when. thejc.com/news/uk-news/n…
@youngvulgarian: So...this kind of looks like it was briefed out by Patel's people to drag Number 10 into it? Ah man, what a mess this all is. twitter.com/youngvulgarian…
This is another of those comments you have to prefix with "In normal political times, this would be..."
However, since May's too weak to do anything, and too useful as a human shield, this will just be added to the list of things that no PM should be able to survive... but has.
Fat chance. The cowards would rather leave her zombie corpse in office than deal with any of this mess. Its not like she will have lied - she won't have known what she was supposed to know. They'll fudge it again.
Team Corbyn have got two senior members in a the doo doo (one convicted of voter fraud and the other suspended for sexual harassment claims), and the Tories are busy fighting among themselves.
Team Corbyn have got two senior members in a the doo doo (one convicted of voter fraud and the other suspended for sexual harassment claims), and the Tories are busy fighting among themselves.
The latest twist doesn't make much sense. Why would a meeting with Yuval Rotem be any more embarrassing to the FCO than the other 12 meetings? Would anyone have noticed if the list had been 14 rather than 12 meetings?
A new Conservative PM taking over from May has to hold a GE either immediately or on schedule (ie 2022). Faffing about is not, I think, a reasonable option and the recent example May set could rather discourage a snap election.
The latest twist doesn't make much sense. Why would a meeting with Yuval Rotem be any more embarrassing to the FCO than the other 12 meetings? Would anyone have noticed if the list had been 14 rather than 12 meetings?
It doesn't make that much sense for Priti to come clean about 12 meetings rather than 14 either to be honest.
You might try reading some of my headers or comments.
Competence has nothing to do with Leave or Remain.
There was - and is - a competent way of implementing Brexit, regardless of one’s views on the referendum result. Regrettably, the government has not chosen it. That is unforgivable because it will likely harm Britain, it will likely harm some of the most vulnerable in Britain and it will also likely harm EU member states. And whatever one thinks of their tactics or strategy EU member states are not the enemy.
I really wish things were otherwise. I really do. Not least because I view the prospect of a Corbyn/McDonnell government with some concern.
I don't think I agree. This government IS incompetent but a competent government would be up against the same realities and contradictions of Brexit. In fact this government's incompetence largely stems from those contradictions, which they are incapable of resolving.
There is only one way to do Brexit properly, which is come what may. We don't look for hardship, but accept it as the price to pay for our principles. If Brexit is sold on very fuzzy principles and no cost, you have a problem.
Yes that's the nub of it. Brexit is so difficult that attempting to deliver it in the way that was foreshadowed in the referendum would make any government look incompetent. May's crucial mistake was not to make clear the difficulties immediately on assuming office. She was so scared of upsetting the ultras that she kowtowed to their simplistic delusions and pretended that it could all be done and dusted in two years and if there was no deal it didn't matter too much. She then compounded her error by alienating the EU with her hostile approach and language before the general election.
If she had acknowledged the scale of the task up front and prepared everyone for the long haul she might have stood a chance of success but the ultras would have seen that as an attempt to overturn the referendum result and cries of betrayal would have filled the airwaves.
The blunt truth is that divisions over Europe and Brexit has made the Tories incapable of competent government. They have not formed a stable, united administration on their own for nearly 30 years. Their incompetence is not the product of the particular set of individuals who currently occupy leadership positions - it is more fundamental than that.
It seems to all depend on how fast the pilot can get Priti back to london. She could be next minister out or there could be at least two others who beat her to it. Hammond's got to be favourite to take over from May. If they're looking for a safe pair of hands no one else comes close. He could even revive Tory fortunes.
Did it not occur to anyone in Team May that sacking like this would be resisted with whatever weapons came to hand, and they had actually handed out a weapon earlier in the week?
If Patel and Johnson are out of the way that leaves Davis and Rees-Mogg as the leadership flag carriers for Leavers.
One of those 2 will almost certainly succeed May as PM now in my view. Probably Davis, with Rees-Mogg more likely to take over as Tory leader of the opposition if and when Corbyn manages to get enough seats to form a government.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the mood is changing. Hard Brexit will die with May. There is no mandate or majority for it. It's soft brexit, pay to play but no votes at the table; or no Brexit.
The first action of the remainer who takes over from May will be to ask Europe to stop the clock.
How will a Remainer get to take over from May though?
Be the best candidate. It's how May won.
But I agree with your implied underlying point: while an ex-Remainer might win, it can only be on a basis of Real Brexit. Candidates' negotiating stance will inevitably be a huge criterion for destination of votes in a contest and the red lines of ECJ jurisdiction and FoM will be decisive.
No Remainer has a chance of winning the membership vote I can tell you.
The top 3 with BOTH Tory members AND Tory voters are Boris, Rees Mogg and Davis in that order and that is consistent in every poll.
Not a Remainer amongst them!
But what happened to Boris, you used to say he was nailed on to be Theresa May's replacement.
He still has a shot, though less than before but it will be 1 of those 3
Oh for the love of God! Pretty much anyone of us on here could do a better job than that lot!
I think it is time for a pb.com intervention.... As a team, we cover pretty much all bases. We certainly have a good track record at forensic examination of - and walking around - bear traps. Unlike most of our elected representatives.
The latest twist doesn't make much sense. Why would a meeting with Yuval Rotem be any more embarrassing to the FCO than the other 12 meetings? Would anyone have noticed if the list had been 14 rather than 12 meetings?
She admitted the 12 meetings, but conveniently forgot the other 2 when she got back from her "hols". If I were her boss, and found one of my staff had lied consistently to my face, then after being told there were no further problems, suddenly discovered that there were, and that I was being made to look an idiot, then I would not just be spitting tacks, it would be bullets....
Your unilateral/consent point is legally doubtful. But in any event I would expect consent will be forthcoming. It's also quite possible that a late concession - such as a five-year special arrangement - on immigration might also be forthcoming, a la TB.
I agree with you about the impact on East London, but this has relatively little to do with the EU. London needs the workforce, the background to the housing crisis is well known, the financial system is stacked to fuel asset price inflation, there are few bars to overseas property investment, and the rental market is wide open to exploitation on favourable lending and tax terms (slowly being withdrawn).
Thank you for the response, my friend. I'm sure I read that A50 can be extended by mutual consent and you may be right that the EU and the UK Government will seek a longer or shorter extension if a deal looks close.
I'm also far from convinced that if Davis produces a "soft" A50 deal, some of those who voted LEAVE will accept that and they won't be happy if the options are accept the deal or stay in. It's not an issue for me - I suppose it could tear the Conservative Party apart but there you go.
As for the immigration/housing issue, the truth is property developers have land-banked 400,000 plots with planning permission on which houses could be built now. It seems sometimes the Government and the property developers have unintentionally contrived to keep the value of land high (and thus making it lucrative to sell off unused public sector land) and therefore keep the property market buoyant.
I agree it's about Supply and Demand but part of me sees us as analogous to Pharaoh's Egypt using foreign labour to build our monuments. Do we really need the Shard or the Cheese Grater ? No, we need affordable houses for individuals and families. I've long been of the view that employers should be paying more toward the provision of accommodation for workers from the EU and beyond (just as I think town centre businesses should pay extra for the provision of Police and ambulance services on Friday and Saturday nights to clear up the drunks).
The reality of cheap labour is businesses don't need to invest in improving processes or technology when another pair of hands is affordable. In the past, labour capacity issues forced businesses to look at improving productivity through technology or automation but if the pool of cheap workers is here forever, where is the rationale to do that ?
None of this alters the fact that essential public services are wilting under the demands in some places yet again all we hear from the supply-side traditionalists on the Right is the siren call for more spending cuts and more tax cuts.
The latest twist doesn't make much sense. Why would a meeting with Yuval Rotem be any more embarrassing to the FCO than the other 12 meetings? Would anyone have noticed if the list had been 14 rather than 12 meetings?
She admitted the 12 meetings, but conveniently forgot the other 2 when she got back from her "hols". If I were her boss, and found one of my staff had lied consistently to my face, then after being told there were no further problems, suddenly discovered that there were, and that I was being made to look an idiot, then I would not just be spitting tacks, it would be bullets....
Except the JC is claiming they were told about the 2 extra meetings as well. Twin sourced claim.
Priti Patel is a symptom of the malaise in the government, not the heart of the problem. Therefore just replacing her would an inadequate response. Theresa May should, as I posted yesterday, convert this mess into an opportunity by a wide-ranging reshuffle which imposes some order and purpose on government, and brings in fresh talent.
However, I am sure we will get the inadequate response, and the government will limp on to the next crisis.
Sadly, I fear you are right. I can't help feeling after May was elected, Boris was told to FO - somehow that got translated as going to the Foreign Office. I'm someone who has had a lot of time for Boris - but his handling of matters Iranian has not been his finest hour. When you are making David Miliband's tenure as Foreign Secretary look competent, you have royally screwed the pooch. Time for a change. Party Chairman - or else time to leave the fray.
Let's have a raft of new talent. Sure, they will make some mistakes - but they will have youth on their side. They will also be beholden to Theresa May, which would give her a period of much-needed stability (before they were sufficient emboldened to start jockeying for her job, natch).
Priti Patel is a symptom of the malaise in the government, not the heart of the problem. Therefore just replacing her would an inadequate response. Theresa May should, as I posted yesterday, convert this mess into an opportunity by a wide-ranging reshuffle which imposes some order and purpose on government, and brings in fresh talent.
However, I am sure we will get the inadequate response, and the government will limp on to the next crisis.
Sadly, I fear you are right. I can't help feeling after May was elected, Boris was told to FO - somehow that got translated as going to the Foreign Office. I'm someone who has had a lot of time for Boris - but his handling of matters Iranian has not been his finest hour. When you are making David Miliband's tenure as Foreign Secretary look competent, you have royally screwed the pooch. Time for a change. Party Chairman - or else time to leave the fray.
Let's have a raft of new talent. Sure, they will make some mistakes - but they will have youth on their side. They will also be beholden to Theresa May, which would give her a period of much-needed stability (before they were sufficient emboldened to start jockeying for her job, natch).
May may not be in a position to make any Cabinet changes by Sunday evening.
"But the JC understands, from two different sources, that Ms Patel did disclose the meeting with Mr Rotem but was told by Number 10 not to include it as it would embarrass the Foreign and Commonwealth Office."
We're getting into fall of the government territory now.
I’m not talking about what George said, I’m talking about what I said about Brexit before June 23rd.
Sure.
But none of us know what things will happen and none of us know what will be the consequences of those things happening.
And, to be blunt, there's been so many warnings of imminent disasters certain to hit us within the lifetimes of PBers (none of which actually did) that I'm rather suffering from imminent disaster fatigue.
Don't a lot of the negatives flow from the drop in the value of the £ caused by Brexit. We've already had the positives such as our exports being cheaper and the FTSE rise.
But the hit from higher prices has almost worked through the system.
The actual boost to exports (and import substitution) takes longer as it often needs capital investment first.
You might try reading some of my headers or comments.
Competence has nothing to do with Leave or Remain.
There was - and is - a competent way of implementing Brexit, regardless of one’s views on the referendum result. Regrettably, the government has not chosen it. That is unforgivable because it will likely harm Britain, it will likely harm some of the most vulnerable in Britain and it will also likely harm EU member states. And whatever one thinks of their tactics or strategy EU member states are not the enemy.
I really wish things were otherwise. I really do. Not least because I view the prospect of a Corbyn/McDonnell government with some concern.
I don't think I agree. This government IS incompetent but a competent government would be up against the same realities and contradictions of Brexit. In fact this government's incompetence largely stems from those contradictions, which they are incapable of resolving.
There is only one way to do Brexit properly, which is come what may. We don't look for hardship, but accept it as the price to pay for our principles.If Brexit is sold on very fuzzy principles and no cost, you have a problem.
How do you imagine those of us who don't share your 'principles' will feel about that price tag?
@gabyhinsliff: *if* (big if) PM was using Patel behind Boris's back, or even condoning her making foreign policy behind his back, in any other circs he'd have grounds to resign on outraged pt of principle & pose serious threat to PM
@gabyhinsliff: but as in the meantime he's done something for which he himself should probably resign, that's out the window. Leaving what's technically known as 'an uholy mess'
The latest twist doesn't make much sense. Why would a meeting with Yuval Rotem be any more embarrassing to the FCO than the other 12 meetings? Would anyone have noticed if the list had been 14 rather than 12 meetings?
She admitted the 12 meetings, but conveniently forgot the other 2 when she got back from her "hols". If I were her boss, and found one of my staff had lied consistently to my face, then after being told there were no further problems, suddenly discovered that there were, and that I was being made to look an idiot, then I would not just be spitting tacks, it would be bullets....
Except the JC is claiming they were told about the 2 extra meetings as well. Twin sourced claim.
Comments
In my defence I have been laying both Boris and Priti Patel as next PM/Con Leader.
Competence has nothing to do with Leave or Remain.
There was - and is - a competent way of implementing Brexit, regardless of one’s views on the referendum result. Regrettably, the government has not chosen it. That is unforgivable because it will likely harm Britain, it will likely harm some of the most vulnerable in Britain and it will also likely harm EU member states. And whatever one thinks of their tactics or strategy EU member states are not the enemy.
I really wish things were otherwise. I really do. Not least because I view the prospect of a Corbyn/McDonnell government with some concern.
There was a much more fragmented vote - Simon Hughes got 15% while both UKIP and Respect did pretty well.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/more-26000-playmobil-figures-set-7602698
(there's a better article on Escapist with more pictures, including an elephant trampling a Roman, but the site's blocked at work)
Help us Obi-Ruth Davidson, you're our only hope!
I remember that classic Spitting Image sketch of Major's cabinet in a brewery unable to organise a piss-up. May can only dream of being as competent as that. The level of rank cowardice amongst Tory MPs is stunning - if they think this is competent government then they're so stupid as to be unfit for office. If they accept this isn't competent but won't act then they're so irresponsible as to be unfit for office.
If we do end up remaining, a second referendum (or possibly a GE with that question at its heart) is a lot better than not having one. However, that will not extinguish suspicions that democracy doesn't count if it doesn't go the way the Establishment wants.
I fear bitterness and division will, after an initial period of probable cooling off, intensify. Every time the EU does something against our interest or which is unpopular here, people will be reminded they vote to leave and that never happened.
The political class, however, will be encouraged to never again hold such a vote due to both the horrendous nature of the campaign and the ensuing political fallout. Which will only heighten frustration felt by many in the country.
A potential way out would be a form of associate membership. But I'll believe that when I see it.
Oh, and deliver Brexit.
A former counter-terrorism boss is being investigated over allegations he did not protect "sensitive documents" which were stolen from his car.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-41060416
However, I am sure we will get the inadequate response, and the government will limp on to the next crisis.
David Prescott was reportedly removed from his job as speechwriter to Jeremy Corbyn in the past few days.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5061487/John-Prescot-s-son-David-suspended-Labour.html
The A50 process can be extended by mutual consent but not unilaterally. Nor can we have a ballot paper whose only options are accept the treaty or remain. The option to leave without an agreement has to be available - there are a significant minority who wish we had left on June 24th 2016 and they cannot be excluded from having a say or being forced to accept a treaty they don't want.
So it's a ballot with three choices:
1) Accept the A50 Treaty (assuming there's one to accept)
2) Leave the EU without an agreement
3) Remain in the EU (under the pre 23/6/16 terms presumably).
Actually, there should be a fourth option - to continue the A50 process and seek a better agreement for later ratification.
You can see why no one wants a new vote and let's stop calling it a second referendum because it sounds like a re-run of the first which it palpably isn't. In 2016 we should have voted not on remaining in the EU at all but on the treaty which Cameron was supposed to get and the consequences of rejecting that Treaty would presumably have been analogous to voting to LEAVE.
HYUFD, for all his increasingly vitriolic efforts to defend the Conservative position, makes the not unreasonable point that it is all about immigration. Whether it had happened in 2004 or later the migration of hundreds of thousands of people from eastern and central Europe to Britain has had a huge cultural, social and economic impact on many parts of the country.
In my part of London, the infrastructure (transport, schools, medical facilities) has been overwhelmed by the new arrivals while the housing market has been fundamentally affected and more tragically, we have created a new generation of East End slums, multi-occupancy properties echoing earlier times when overcrowded dwellings marked out the working class East End. The slums are back - they are different but they are here.
Regardless of party politics now more than ever we need a functioning capable government. We don't have one. They need to remove May - its in everyone's interest including their own. Voters remember shambolic governments long after the key players have been removed, tarnishing the party. Happened to us, happened to the Tories before, happening to the Tories now.
There is only one way to do Brexit properly, which is come what may. We don't look for hardship, but accept it as the price to pay for our principles. If Brexit is sold on very fuzzy principles and no cost, you have a problem.
"On 24 August - the same day as Ms Patel spoke to Mr Netanyahu - Middle East minister Alistair Burt and David Quarrey, the British Ambassador to Israel, met Michael Oren, Deputy Minister at the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office. According to the notes of the meeting, Mr Oren referred to Ms Patel having had a successful meeting with Mr Netanyahu earlier "
Get yer Shadsy Christmas bonus here...
https://twitter.com/aidankerrtweets/status/928208288977707008
It is up to the UK Gvt (or Parl't) whether or not to have a referendum on the leaving terms - A50 doesn't come into it.
If there's a deal, there is no reason why leaving without a deal should be on the table at all. Leaving with a deal fulfils the 2016 vote precisely.
I agree with you about the impact on East London, but this has relatively little to do with the EU. London needs the workforce, the background to the housing crisis is well known, the financial system is stacked to fuel asset price inflation, there are few bars to overseas property investment, and the rental market is wide open to exploitation on favourable lending and tax terms (slowly being withdrawn).
@youngvulgarian: So...this kind of looks like it was briefed out by Patel's people to drag Number 10 into it? Ah man, what a mess this all is. twitter.com/youngvulgarian…
*** BETTING POST ***
You can still get 11/4 on a 2018 GE...
However, since May's too weak to do anything, and too useful as a human shield, this will just be added to the list of things that no PM should be able to survive... but has.
A new Conservative PM taking over from May has to hold a GE either immediately or on schedule (ie 2022). Faffing about is not, I think, a reasonable option and the recent example May set could rather discourage a snap election.
Might be markets on May's departure date?
https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/928210321118040064
Still some unravelling to be done I suspect.
foreshadowed in the referendum would make any government look incompetent. May's crucial mistake was not to make clear the difficulties immediately on assuming office. She was so scared of upsetting the ultras that she kowtowed to their simplistic delusions and pretended that it could all be done and dusted in two years and if there was no deal it didn't matter too much. She then compounded her error by alienating the EU with her hostile approach and language before the general election.
If she had acknowledged the scale of the task up front and prepared everyone for the long haul she might have stood a chance of success but the ultras would have seen that as an attempt to overturn the referendum result and cries of betrayal would have filled the airwaves.
The blunt truth is that divisions over Europe and Brexit has made the Tories incapable of competent government. They have not formed a stable, united administration on their own for nearly 30 years. Their incompetence is not the product of the particular set of individuals who currently occupy leadership positions - it is more fundamental than that.
I'm also far from convinced that if Davis produces a "soft" A50 deal, some of those who voted LEAVE will accept that and they won't be happy if the options are accept the deal or stay in. It's not an issue for me - I suppose it could tear the Conservative Party apart but there you go.
As for the immigration/housing issue, the truth is property developers have land-banked 400,000 plots with planning permission on which houses could be built now. It seems sometimes the Government and the property developers have unintentionally contrived to keep the value of land high (and thus making it lucrative to sell off unused public sector land) and therefore keep the property market buoyant.
I agree it's about Supply and Demand but part of me sees us as analogous to Pharaoh's Egypt using foreign labour to build our monuments. Do we really need the Shard or the Cheese Grater ? No, we need affordable houses for individuals and families. I've long been of the view that employers should be paying more toward the provision of accommodation for workers from the EU and beyond (just as I think town centre businesses should pay extra for the provision of Police and ambulance services on Friday and Saturday nights to clear up the drunks).
The reality of cheap labour is businesses don't need to invest in improving processes or technology when another pair of hands is affordable. In the past, labour capacity issues forced businesses to look at improving productivity through technology or automation but if the pool of cheap workers is here forever, where is the rationale to do that ?
None of this alters the fact that essential public services are wilting under the demands in some places yet again all we hear from the supply-side traditionalists on the Right is the siren call for more spending cuts and more tax cuts.
https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/928198869258776576
Let's have a raft of new talent. Sure, they will make some mistakes - but they will have youth on their side. They will also be beholden to Theresa May, which would give her a period of much-needed stability (before they were sufficient emboldened to start jockeying for her job, natch).
https://qz.com/1122818/luxury-hotel-ritz-carlton-riyadh-is-currently-housing-political-prisoners/?mc_cid=5eb1842723&mc_eid=9047c11715
https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/928105357641207808
@gabyhinsliff: but as in the meantime he's done something for which he himself should probably resign, that's out the window. Leaving what's technically known as 'an uholy mess'
Is I believe the usual response