politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Spain’s government largely created the Catalan crisis and may

System · November 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Spain’s government largely created the Catalan crisis and may not be able to end it

The Catalan crisis has been simmering for years. It is also a lot more complex than most reporting would suggest. As things reach boiling point, a resolution may only be possible once Spain’s ruling PP leave power, says Joff Wild

Read the full story here

IanB2 · November 2017

First? Unlike pretty much every politician right now.

RobD · November 2017

Thanks, Joff!

JohnLoony · November 2017

Is there a gremlin? I typed a substantial paragraph to suggest a solution to the Catalonia crisis, but it has disappeared.

JohnLoony · November 2017

Mariano Rajoy should be cut in half, slowly, diagonally, by Mongolian throat-singers using finely-sharpened frozen-solid slices of gherkin as cutting tools. The other reactionary members of the Rajoy junta in Madrid should be tied tightly together with lengths of blue string, forced to stand in the middle of a muddy field, and bombarded by old peasant-women using catapults to throw tennis-ball-sized frozen-solid lumps of lemon juice at them, until they confess to their aggressive anti-diversity anti-democracy crimes. Then, the Spanish parliament should legislate to change the Spanish constitution, allow Catalonia to have a referendum on independence, and then there should be a referendum on independence, and the Catalonia should become independent.

IanB2 · November 2017

I am surprised that the wealthiest don't live in or near Barcelona, which appears to what Joff's factoids suggest?

IanB2 · November 2017

JohnLoony said:
Is there a gremlin? I typed a substantial paragraph to suggest a solution to the Catalonia crisis, but it has disappeared.

JohnLoony said:
Mariano Rajoy should be cut in half, slowly, diagonally, by Mongolian throat-singers using finely-sharpened frozen-solid slices of gherkin as cutting tools. The other reactionary members of the Rajoy junta in Madrid should be tied tightly together with lengths of blue string, forced to stand in the middle of a muddy field, and bombarded by old peasant-women using catapults to throw tennis-ball-sized frozen-solid lumps of lemon juice at them, until they confess to their aggressive anti-diversity anti-democracy crimes. Then, the Spanish parliament should legislate to change the Spanish constitution, allow Catalonia to have a referendum on independence, and then there should be a referendum on independence, and the Catalonia should become independent.

A shame we never got to see the original?

Sandpit · November 2017

Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.

williamglenn · November 2017

https://twitter.com/markknoller/status/927333067169173505

rcs1000 · November 2017

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/markknoller/status/927333067169173505

The funny bit is that, since NAFTA was created at the beginning of 1994, the number of Japanese cars imported into the US has collapsed.

JohnLoony · November 2017

IanB2 said:

JohnLoony said:
Is there a gremlin? I typed a substantial paragraph to suggest a solution to the Catalonia crisis, but it has disappeared.

JohnLoony said:
Mariano Rajoy should be cut in half, slowly, diagonally, by Mongolian throat-singers using finely-sharpened frozen-solid slices of gherkin as cutting tools. The other reactionary members of the Rajoy junta in Madrid should be tied tightly together with lengths of blue string, forced to stand in the middle of a muddy field, and bombarded by old peasant-women using catapults to throw tennis-ball-sized frozen-solid lumps of lemon juice at them, until they confess to their aggressive anti-diversity anti-democracy crimes. Then, the Spanish parliament should legislate to change the Spanish constitution, allow Catalonia to have a referendum on independence, and then there should be a referendum on independence, and the Catalonia should become independent.
A shame we never got to see the original?

Oh, er, that *is* the original. It must have got delayed by a wormhole temporal earthquake distortion catastrophe apocalypse frasmotic derangement mechanism thingy paradox imaginary time dilation pandimensional squidgificational contrafibularity.

CarlottaVance · November 2017

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.

+1

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DNTO-tBXkAME0Ok.jpg

MTimT · November 2017

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
+1

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DNTO-tBXkAME0Ok.jpg

Great piece by Joff and great cartoon.

SandyRentool · November 2017

¡No pasarán!

Very good thread header Joff. Unfortunately most of the media don't do complication and nuance.

The neo-falangists in the PP could learn a lesson from the UK - hold an independence referendum, put forward the case for the Union and hope to win via democracy rather than using police batons and locking up your political opponents.

(Auto correct wanted to change PP to PLP above!)

swing_voter · November 2017

Joff, good stab at the issue but a couple of observations.

The PP have only been in power for less than 6 years, you said they had been playing into the hands of separatists for 10 years -

I think it is unhelpful to paint it as a Catalan vs Spain argument. there is no clear definition of a Catalan - many Catalans do not support separatism so it is loose to talk about Catalans (and sweep all those into the category). The concept of Catalan nationality is not like Scottish...and it would be like saying that the SNP speaks for all Scots.....

not even has been made of Catalan Socialists, Ciudadanos etc who are not in favour of separatism - again it is more than a PP vs Catalan battle.

your conclusion that the Dec vote is correct - they have created a vote now that if it gets 50% plus creates an issue - how that pans out is tricky
but I am glad the debate is opened.....

swing_voter · November 2017

SandyRentool said:
¡No pasarán!

Very good thread header Joff. Unfortunately most of the media don't do complication and nuance.

The neo-falangists in the PP could learn a lesson from the UK - hold an independence referendum, put forward the case for the Union and hope to win via democracy rather than using police batons and locking up your political opponents.

(Auto correct wanted to change PP to PLP above!)

Why do you refer to neo-Falangists?, too simplistic by far...

ydoethur · November 2017

SandyRentool said:
(Auto correct wanted to change PP to PLP above!)

Freudian autocorrect?

Roger · November 2017

Very informative article Joff. The movement has some powerful friends. Pep Guardiola was sporting a yellow ribbon in City's game with Arsenal

https://tribuna.com/fcbarcelona/en/news/2467716/

tlg86 · November 2017

Thanks Joff, very interesting.

Roger · November 2017

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.

The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?

felix · November 2017

IanB2 said:
I am surprised that the wealthiest don't live in or near Barcelona, which appears to what Joff's factoids suggest?

I think Girona ia probably the wealthiest city and province.

OldKingCole · November 2017

Thanks for that. I don’t know much about Spanish history, apart from such figures as Philip II and Franco, and of course the Armada, but I get the impression that much at least of Catalonia was never part of Moorish Spain.
Hence there’s always been a sense of separation about the area.

So Joff’s article has filled in quite a few gaps and encouraged me to find out more.

DavidL · November 2017

Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.

felix · November 2017

The Rajoy government has saved the Spanish nation from a catastrophic financial crisis and is succeeeding in both sensible workplace reforms and even, slowly, reducing unemployment. Given it's recent past I find life in the country as a gay man remarkably free, liberal and tolerant. There is a fierce sense of the importance of the rule of law and a desire for unity. The principle gripe of the separatists seems to be a hostility to any wealth redistribution to the poorer parts of Spain - perhaps understandable but hardly the noblest of causes. Much of the header i agree with but of course it is written from a left-wing perspective and it is therefore unsurprising to see blame levelled largely at a conservative government.

daodao · November 2017

The solution regarding the Dec 21st election is simple. All candidates should be required to swear an allegiance to the indivisible united Kingdom of Spain to be allowed to stand. The imprisoned rebels shouldn't be allowed to be candidates. Alternatively, use the criterion employed at Westminster for swearing in elected representatives, which self-excludes SF.

Rajoy is dealing with the situation in a measured way, in accordance with the law. The Spanish government hasn't gone as far as it could. Puidgemont should remember the fate of his predecessor Companys in 1940. Hopefully, there won't be a need to resort to methods used by the Generalissimo, but they were effective.

Fysics_Teacher · November 2017

Interesting article. Any chance of a bit of context for the “30% have private health insurance” line: what is the usual percentage? I don’t know enough about the Spanish health system to know if this is high or low.

felix · November 2017

DavidL said:
Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

Very important to compare polling companies rather than focus on the list. The support for the right has overall been very stable for several years despite the very difficult economic measures since 2010 - way more austere than anything witnessed in the UK.

swing_voter · November 2017

I think it is easy to overstate the wealth of Catalonia, whilst I would agree it has more wealth than most Spanish regions, it is does not enjoy per capita incomes much higher than the EU average. Its cities and towns have serious levels of youth unemployment, homelessness and poverty, this idea it will reinvent itself as the Singapore of the Med just does not stand, and there is little strategy as to how it will succeed in the immediate term.

Spain's democracy is being tested, but is stronger than commentators in Northern Europe give it credit for...the challenge for the unionist parties are to spell the benefits of Spain to a young, idealistic and passionate base of support for separatism.

DavidL · November 2017

felix said:

DavidL said:
Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

Very important to compare polling companies rather than focus on the list. The support for the right has overall been very stable for several years despite the very difficult economic measures since 2010 - way more austere than anything witnessed in the UK.

Indeed. I fear that Joff's centre left leanings have overly influenced his analysis here. There has been a fairly big movement to boycott Catalan products in the rest of Spain. The tone is more angry and unified than our media usually indicates, not just among the politicians but among the populace. I suspect outside Catalonia the approach of the government in Madrid is very popular indeed.

felix · November 2017

Fysics_Teacher said:
Interesting article. Any chance of a bit of context for the “30% have private health insurance” line: what is the usual percentage? I don’t know enough about the Spanish health system to know if this is high or low.

I have private cover as I live here retired but under state pension age. It is way cheaper than anything you can get in the UK and covers a GP service as well as hospital treatment as well as providing a quicker service than the NHS equivalent here. However, both systems here work fairly well and there is none of the nonsense about deifying the 'NHS' as we get in the UK. I suspect that doctors here are significantly more modestly paid than in the UK where the system still heavily favours the the staff compared to the customers.

felix · November 2017

DavidL said:

felix said:

DavidL said:
Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

Very important to compare polling companies rather than focus on the list. The support for the right has overall been very stable for several years despite the very difficult economic measures since 2010 - way more austere than anything witnessed in the UK.
Indeed. I fear that Joff's centre left leanings have overly influenced his analysis here. There has been a fairly big movement to boycott Catalan products in the rest of Spain. The tone is more angry and unified than our media usually indicates, not just among the politicians but among the populace. I suspect outside Catalonia the approach of the government in Madrid is very popular indeed.

Correct - and for many Spaniards they view Catalonia as much in sorrow as anger. The situation is a mess but the UK media reporting has been at times very superficial.

Fysics_Teacher · November 2017

felix said:

Fysics_Teacher said:
Interesting article. Any chance of a bit of context for the “30% have private health insurance” line: what is the usual percentage? I don’t know enough about the Spanish health system to know if this is high or low.
I have private cover as I live here retired but under state pension age. It is way cheaper than anything you can get in the UK and covers a GP service as well as hospital treatment as well as providing a quicker service than the NHS equivalent here. However, both systems here work fairly well and there is none of the nonsense about deifying the 'NHS' as we get in the UK. I suspect that doctors here are significantly more modestly paid than in the UK where the system still heavily favours the the staff compared to the customers.

Any idea how many others have private insurance? I’m trying to work out if 30% is an unusually high proportion.

RobD · November 2017

DavidL said:
Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.

For those not keeping score, what did the polls over the last few days say?

DavidL · November 2017

swing_voter said:
I think it is easy to overstate the wealth of Catalonia, whilst I would agree it has more wealth than most Spanish regions, it is does not enjoy per capita incomes much higher than the EU average. Its cities and towns have serious levels of youth unemployment, homelessness and poverty, this idea it will reinvent itself as the Singapore of the Med just does not stand, and there is little strategy as to how it will succeed in the immediate term.

Spain's democracy is being tested, but is stronger than commentators in Northern Europe give it credit for...the challenge for the unionist parties are to spell the benefits of Spain to a young, idealistic and passionate base of support for separatism.

Surely the most relevant comparator is the rest of Spain and in that respect it is well above average.

The important point, however, is that it achieves that average as a deeply integrated part of the Spanish economy. It is not like Scotland arguably was at peak north sea oil where it had a large scale international commodity to sell. It is more like Scotland is now where the vast bulk of our exports go to rUK and it is totally dependent on uninhibited access to that market.

Could Catalonia be an independent country? Probably, but it would need excellent relationships with its largest customers in rSpain and some access to the EU. It is likely that country would be poorer than Catalonia is now for a significant period of time.

felix · November 2017

Fysics_Teacher said:

felix said:

Fysics_Teacher said:
Interesting article. Any chance of a bit of context for the “30% have private health insurance” line: what is the usual percentage? I don’t know enough about the Spanish health system to know if this is high or low.
I have private cover as I live here retired but under state pension age. It is way cheaper than anything you can get in the UK and covers a GP service as well as hospital treatment as well as providing a quicker service than the NHS equivalent here. However, both systems here work fairly well and there is none of the nonsense about deifying the 'NHS' as we get in the UK. I suspect that doctors here are significantly more modestly paid than in the UK where the system still heavily favours the the staff compared to the customers.
Any idea how many others have private insurance? I’m trying to work out if 30% is an unusually high proportion.

I think the figure is probably accurate but it may include those who take out more modest deals than the 'full monty'. Of course many European countries have mixed systems of various hues and it is only in the UK that the whole thing is so highly politicised as far as I can see. Also viewed from the outside the UK system is not nearly so venerated as most other countries seem to get rather better outcomes.

felix · November 2017

RobD said:

DavidL said:
Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.
For those not keeping score, what did the polls over the last few days say?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_regional_election,_2017

Again best to compare byt polling company rather than just following the list. It remains pretty tight.

DavidL · November 2017

RobD said:

DavidL said:
Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.
For those not keeping score, what did the polls over the last few days say?

As Joff noted they indicate a majority for independence in Catalonia for the first time. This is clearly a response to the actions of the Madrid government. Whether it changes will depend on how stable and peaceful things are between now and 21st December (if that remains the relevant date).

RobD · November 2017

felix said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:
Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.
For those not keeping score, what did the polls over the last few days say?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_regional_election,_2017

Again best to compare byt polling company rather than just following the list. It remains pretty tight.

Looks like the pro-Spanish parties have gained. Or am I misinterpreting?

felix · November 2017

Spanish, and Catalan, politics is also badly affected by the fact that the socialists are split between the more moderate PSOE and the extreme left Podemos - the latter group the only mainstream party which has not supported the Rajoy line over the past few weeks.

felix · November 2017

RobD said:

felix said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:
Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.
For those not keeping score, what did the polls over the last few days say?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_regional_election,_2017

Again best to compare byt polling company rather than just following the list. It remains pretty tight.
Looks like the pro-Spanish parties have gained. Or am I misinterpreting?

They have, but it is very tight and much may depend on turnout.

felix · November 2017

DavidL said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:
Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.
For those not keeping score, what did the polls over the last few days say?
As Joff noted they indicate a majority for independence in Catalonia for the first time. This is clearly a response to the actions of the Madrid government. Whether it changes will depend on how stable and peaceful things are between now and 21st December (if that remains the relevant date).

Not sure that is correct - maybe in terms of seats which is as now, but not in terms of percentage votes. It is also complicated as some parties are much more pro- more autonomy rather than desperate for full independence. I cannot see that being accepted by the rest of Spain.

foxinsoxuk · November 2017

DavidL said:

swing_voter said:
I think it is easy to overstate the wealth of Catalonia, whilst I would agree it has more wealth than most Spanish regions, it is does not enjoy per capita incomes much higher than the EU average. Its cities and towns have serious levels of youth unemployment, homelessness and poverty, this idea it will reinvent itself as the Singapore of the Med just does not stand, and there is little strategy as to how it will succeed in the immediate term.

Spain's democracy is being tested, but is stronger than commentators in Northern Europe give it credit for...the challenge for the unionist parties are to spell the benefits of Spain to a young, idealistic and passionate base of support for separatism.
Surely the most relevant comparator is the rest of Spain and in that respect it is well above average.

The important point, however, is that it achieves that average as a deeply integrated part of the Spanish economy. It is not like Scotland arguably was at peak north sea oil where it had a large scale international commodity to sell. It is more like Scotland is now where the vast bulk of our exports go to rUK and it is totally dependent on uninhibited access to that market.

Could Catalonia be an independent country? Probably, but it would need excellent relationships with its largest customers in rSpain and some access to the EU. It is likely that country would be poorer than Catalonia is now for a significant period of time.

PBers may enjoy this interactive tool for looking at the relative economic performance of Catalonia vs other European regions:

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/927436850956066816

Catalonia is a little above the European average, similar to the SE England (ex London) region. I suspect that these figures are distorted by where corporate HQs are located. Madrid is the wealthiest Spanish region, and as a general rule the capital is the wealthiest place in most of European countries. Corporate HQs in Barcelona may have the same effect.

SouthamObserver · November 2017

swing_voter said:
Joff, good stab at the issue but a couple of observations.

The PP have only been in power for less than 6 years, you said they had been playing into the hands of separatists for 10 years -

I think it is unhelpful to paint it as a Catalan vs Spain argument. there is no clear definition of a Catalan - many Catalans do not support separatism so it is loose to talk about Catalans (and sweep all those into the category). The concept of Catalan nationality is not like Scottish...and it would be like saying that the SNP speaks for all Scots.....

not even has been made of Catalan Socialists, Ciudadanos etc who are not in favour of separatism - again it is more than a PP vs Catalan battle.

your conclusion that the Dec vote is correct - they have created a vote now that if it gets 50% plus creates an issue - how that pans out is tricky
but I am glad the debate is opened.....

Cheers.

While in opposition PP opposed the settlement that PSOE reached with the Catalan government and filed a series of complaints in the courts to get it overturned. That's where the 10 years comes in.

SouthamObserver · November 2017

DavidL said:
Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.

Almost all national opinion polls in Spain show PP support falling:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

felix · November 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

swing_voter said:
I think it is easy to overstate the wealth of Catalonia, whilst I would agree it has more wealth than most Spanish regions, it is does not enjoy per capita incomes much higher than the EU average. Its cities and towns have serious levels of youth unemployment, homelessness and poverty, this idea it will reinvent itself as the Singapore of the Med just does not stand, and there is little strategy as to how it will succeed in the immediate term.

Spain's democracy is being tested, but is stronger than commentators in Northern Europe give it credit for...the challenge for the unionist parties are to spell the benefits of Spain to a young, idealistic and passionate base of support for separatism.
Surely the most relevant comparator is the rest of Spain and in that respect it is well above average.

The important point, however, is that it achieves that average as a deeply integrated part of the Spanish economy. It is not like Scotland arguably was at peak north sea oil where it had a large scale international commodity to sell. It is more like Scotland is now where the vast bulk of our exports go to rUK and it is totally dependent on uninhibited access to that market.

Could Catalonia be an independent country? Probably, but it would need excellent relationships with its largest customers in rSpain and some access to the EU. It is likely that country would be poorer than Catalonia is now for a significant period of time.
PBers may enjoy this interactive tool for looking at the relative economic performance of Catalonia vs other European regions:

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/927436850956066816

Catalonia is a little above the European average, similar to the SE England (ex London) region. I suspect that these figures are distorted by where corporate HQs are located. Madrid is the wealthiest Spanish region, and as a general rule the capital is the wealthiest place in most of European countries. Corporate HQs in Barcelona may have the same effect.

Over a thousand have left in the past few weeks.

CarlottaVance · November 2017

Roger said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?

On a computer from his office.......

DavidL · November 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

swing_voter said:
I think it is easy to overstate the wealth of Catalonia, whilst I would agree it has more wealth than most Spanish regions, it is does not enjoy per capita incomes much higher than the EU average. Its cities and towns have serious levels of youth unemployment, homelessness and poverty, this idea it will reinvent itself as the Singapore of the Med just does not stand, and there is little strategy as to how it will succeed in the immediate term.

Spain's democracy is being tested, but is stronger than commentators in Northern Europe give it credit for...the challenge for the unionist parties are to spell the benefits of Spain to a young, idealistic and passionate base of support for separatism.
Surely the most relevant comparator is the rest of Spain and in that respect it is well above average.

The important point, however, is that it achieves that average as a deeply integrated part of the Spanish economy. It is not like Scotland arguably was at peak north sea oil where it had a large scale international commodity to sell. It is more like Scotland is now where the vast bulk of our exports go to rUK and it is totally dependent on uninhibited access to that market.

Could Catalonia be an independent country? Probably, but it would need excellent relationships with its largest customers in rSpain and some access to the EU. It is likely that country would be poorer than Catalonia is now for a significant period of time.
PBers may enjoy this interactive tool for looking at the relative economic performance of Catalonia vs other European regions:

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/927436850956066816

Catalonia is a little above the European average, similar to the SE England (ex London) region. I suspect that these figures are distorted by where corporate HQs are located. Madrid is the wealthiest Spanish region, and as a general rule the capital is the wealthiest place in most of European countries. Corporate HQs in Barcelona may have the same effect.

Something like 1300 corporate seats, not necessarily the headquarters, were moved out of Barcelona during the brief "independence" period but it is presumably too early for such reactions to show up. Once again the echoes of what would have happened to Scotland are loud.

swing_voter · November 2017

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

swing_voter said:
I think it is easy to overstate the wealth of Catalonia, whilst I would agree it has more wealth than most Spanish regions, it is does not enjoy per capita incomes much higher than the EU average. Its cities and towns have serious levels of youth unemployment, homelessness and poverty, this idea it will reinvent itself as the Singapore of the Med just does not stand, and there is little strategy as to how it will succeed in the immediate term.

Spain's democracy is being tested, but is stronger than commentators in Northern Europe give it credit for...the challenge for the unionist parties are to spell the benefits of Spain to a young, idealistic and passionate base of support for separatism.
Surely the most relevant comparator is the rest of Spain and in that respect it is well above average.

The important point, however, is that it achieves that average as a deeply integrated part of the Spanish economy. It is not like Scotland arguably was at peak north sea oil where it had a large scale international commodity to sell. It is more like Scotland is now where the vast bulk of our exports go to rUK and it is totally dependent on uninhibited access to that market.

Could Catalonia be an independent country? Probably, but it would need excellent relationships with its largest customers in rSpain and some access to the EU. It is likely that country would be poorer than Catalonia is now for a significant period of time.
PBers may enjoy this interactive tool for looking at the relative economic performance of Catalonia vs other European regions:

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/927436850956066816

Catalonia is a little above the European average, similar to the SE England (ex London) region. I suspect that these figures are distorted by where corporate HQs are located. Madrid is the wealthiest Spanish region, and as a general rule the capital is the wealthiest place in most of European countries. Corporate HQs in Barcelona may have the same effect.
Something like 1300 corporate seats, not necessarily the headquarters, were moved out of Barcelona during the brief "independence" period but it is presumably too early for such reactions to show up. Once again the echoes of what would have happened to Scotland are loud.

Jobs are an extremely emotive issue in Spain, my feeling is that a Project Fear will spring into action - and as G Osborne knows.....it doesnt always work.

SouthamObserver · November 2017

DavidL said:

felix said:

DavidL said:
Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

Very important to compare polling companies rather than focus on the list. The support for the right has overall been very stable for several years despite the very difficult economic measures since 2010 - way more austere than anything witnessed in the UK.
Indeed. I fear that Joff's centre left leanings have overly influenced his analysis here. There has been a fairly big movement to boycott Catalan products in the rest of Spain. The tone is more angry and unified than our media usually indicates, not just among the politicians but among the populace. I suspect outside Catalonia the approach of the government in Madrid is very popular indeed.

All of Spain outside of Catalonia and a lot of Catalans are very much in favour of backing the constitution. However, Rajoy's approach to the crisis, which was essentially to ignore it until September, has been widely criticised, as his refusal to countenance constitiutional reform (until very recently), while PP itself has lost a lot of support because of corruption scandals. A lot of the previous PP vote has switched to Ciudadanos, which describes itself as a centre-left party, but which would more accurately be placed in the centre. It sits in the same grouping as the LibDems in the European Parliament.

MarqueeMark · November 2017

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?
On a computer from his office.......

Just being theoritcal here, if say you got hold of the e-mail list for all Labour* MPs and sent them an e-mail with an attachment of some "extreme" (but legal) porn - it would then be accurate to say that (despite them all being innocent parties) "extreme" porn was found on all Labour MPs computers.

I don't quite see how that scenario would allow me to board the outrage bus and call for all Labour MPs to resign.

We have no context at all to the claims in the Sunday Times.

*other parties are available

SouthamObserver · November 2017

felix said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

felix said:

Fysics_Teacher said:
Interesting article. Any chance of a bit of context for the “30% have private health insurance” line: what is the usual percentage? I don’t know enough about the Spanish health system to know if this is high or low.
I have private cover as I live here retired but under state pension age. It is way cheaper than anything you can get in the UK and covers a GP service as well as hospital treatment as well as providing a quicker service than the NHS equivalent here. However, both systems here work fairly well and there is none of the nonsense about deifying the 'NHS' as we get in the UK. I suspect that doctors here are significantly more modestly paid than in the UK where the system still heavily favours the the staff compared to the customers.
Any idea how many others have private insurance? I’m trying to work out if 30% is an unusually high proportion.
I think the figure is probably accurate but it may include those who take out more modest deals than the 'full monty'. Of course many European countries have mixed systems of various hues and it is only in the UK that the whole thing is so highly politicised as far as I can see. Also viewed from the outside the UK system is not nearly so venerated as most other countries seem to get rather better outcomes.

If you look at the link I provide the interesting thing is that the CUP number is a lot higher than both the PSC and PP numbers, which are much closer to the Spanish average:

https://www.expatica.com/es/healthcare/Getting-healthcare-in-Spain_101467.html

DavidL · November 2017

swing_voter said:

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

swing_voter said:

PBers may enjoy this interactive tool for looking at the relative economic performance of Catalonia vs other European regions:

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/927436850956066816

Catalonia is a little above the European average, similar to the SE England (ex London) region. I suspect that these figures are distorted by where corporate HQs are located. Madrid is the wealthiest Spanish region, and as a general rule the capital is the wealthiest place in most of European countries. Corporate HQs in Barcelona may have the same effect.
Something like 1300 corporate seats, not necessarily the headquarters, were moved out of Barcelona during the brief "independence" period but it is presumably too early for such reactions to show up. Once again the echoes of what would have happened to Scotland are loud.
Jobs are an extremely emotive issue in Spain, my feeling is that a Project Fear will spring into action - and as G Osborne knows.....it doesnt always work.

What has surprised me is how straightforward the takeover from Madrid has proven to be. I would have expected more resistance to the removal of officials etc and there has been none. It really has gone better than Rajoy had any right to expect.

I think many, perhaps most, in Catalonia are seriously concerned about the economic consequences of this disruption. Spain has done really well in creating jobs in the last few years but from a desperate base and unemployment is still a major concern, as is the number of young people who go abroad to find it. Curiously, both the waitresses in my Italian restaurant in Edinburgh on Friday were from Barcelona.

Monksfield · November 2017

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?
On a computer from his office.......
Just being theoritcal here, if say you got hold of the e-mail list for all Labour* MPs and sent them an e-mail with an attachment of some "extreme" (but legal) porn - it would then be accurate to say that (despite them all being innocent parties) "extreme" porn was found on all Labour MPs computers.

I don't quite see how that scenario would allow me to board the outrage bus and call for all Labour MPs to resign.

We have no context at all to the claims in the Sunday Times.

*other parties are available

Talking about the Outrage bus, Mark, I seem to remember you coming over all politically self righteous about the Bex Bailey case the other day. Meanwhile...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41857807

SouthamObserver · November 2017

DavidL said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:
Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.
For those not keeping score, what did the polls over the last few days say?
As Joff noted they indicate a majority for independence in Catalonia for the first time. This is clearly a response to the actions of the Madrid government. Whether it changes will depend on how stable and peaceful things are between now and 21st December (if that remains the relevant date).

I'd be careful of the poll showing support for indy at just over 50%. In Catalonia, the language in which a poll is conducted is very important. If it is in Catalan, as the most recent one was, it may (and I do only say may) have the effect of excluding older, non-Catalan speakers who immigrated from the rest of Spain. Polls done in Spanish - which everyone in Catalonia speaks - tend to have lower levels of support for independence. The key thing on 21st December will be turnout. The last election was high (75%), but if it goes higher, then the likelihood is it will be because unionists are turning out to vote, quite probably for the first time ever in regional elections.

Morris_Dancer · November 2017

Good morning, everyone.

A very interesting article, Mr. Wild, which does point a rather combustible picture.

If separatist parties win a majority and call for/confirm [as you like] independence, what then?

Charles · November 2017

JohnLoony said:
Is there a gremlin? I typed a substantial paragraph to suggest a solution to the Catalonia crisis, but it has disappeared.

The Catalan crisis, your solution, or the paragraph you typed?

Charles · November 2017

IanB2 said:
I am surprised that the wealthiest don't live in or near Barcelona, which appears to what Joff's factoids suggest?

Girona is Catalonia's beating heart

tlg86 · November 2017

They have also seen thousands of businesses relocate their HQs to other parts of Spain, noted the fall in the number of tourist bookings since the crisis really hit and the rise in unemployment.

Interesting that Catalonia has yet to actually go independent in more than name only and it is having an effect. Different to Brexit...

SouthamObserver · November 2017

felix said:

DavidL said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:
Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.
For those not keeping score, what did the polls over the last few days say?
As Joff noted they indicate a majority for independence in Catalonia for the first time. This is clearly a response to the actions of the Madrid government. Whether it changes will depend on how stable and peaceful things are between now and 21st December (if that remains the relevant date).
Not sure that is correct - maybe in terms of seats which is as now, but not in terms of percentage votes. It is also complicated as some parties are much more pro- more autonomy rather than desperate for full independence. I cannot see that being accepted by the rest of Spain.

Spain has to move, too. The Catalan crisis has forced downward revisions to forecasts for Spain's economic outlook - GDP and employment rates. More autonomy for Catalonia will mean less money for the central government, but less money from the settled, properly functioning engine of the Spanish economy is probably worth more to Spain than ongoing crisis and uncertainty. The Catalans essentially want what the Basques have. They did not get it previously because they did not have ETA. But denying a large majority what they want is not sustainable. Catalonia is different - it does have its own culture, its own language, its own way of seeing things - and there is no good reason why that should not be reflected in the constitutional arrangement Catalonia has. It is in everyone's interests.

NickPalmer · November 2017

Viewcode FPT - only seen a couple of The Beginning of Everything so far, but they were good. The era - flappers, WW1, liberation from stuffy tradition etc. - always offers rich material for drama, but so far they've avoided cliche and everyone seems credible.

DavidL · November 2017

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:
Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.
For those not keeping score, what did the polls over the last few days say?
As Joff noted they indicate a majority for independence in Catalonia for the first time. This is clearly a response to the actions of the Madrid government. Whether it changes will depend on how stable and peaceful things are between now and 21st December (if that remains the relevant date).

I'd be careful of the poll showing support for indy at just over 50%. In Catalonia, the language in which a poll is conducted is very important. If it is in Catalan, as the most recent one was, it may (and I do only say may) have the effect of excluding older, non-Catalan speakers who immigrated from the rest of Spain. Polls done in Spanish - which everyone in Catalonia speaks - tend to have lower levels of support for independence. The key thing on 21st December will be turnout. The last election was high (75%), but if it goes higher, then the likelihood is it will be because unionists are turning out to vote, quite probably for the first time ever in regional elections.

I can see turnout being at Sindyref levels. If things remain fairly peaceful between now and 21st December then I would expect a majority of votes, if not necessarily seats, to go to Unionist parties. Locking up Independence politicians is unlikely to assist, however, and the position remains volatile.

Charles · November 2017

OldKingCole said:
Thanks for that. I don’t know much about Spanish history, apart from such figures as Philip II and Franco, and of course the Armada, but I get the impression that much at least of Catalonia was never part of Moorish Spain.
Hence there’s always been a sense of separation about the area.

So Joff’s article has filled in quite a few gaps and encouraged me to find out more.

Spain was created from the Union of Two Crowns : the King of Castile (Ferdinand) married the Queen of Aragon (which had previously combined with the County of Barcelona).

The promise was it would be a dual monarchy but almost immediately the Castillians started imposing their will and ignoring Aragonese complaints and rights

Sandpit · November 2017

felix said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

felix said:

Fysics_Teacher said:
Interesting article. Any chance of a bit of context for the “30% have private health insurance” line: what is the usual percentage? I don’t know enough about the Spanish health system to know if this is high or low.
I have private cover as I live here retired but under state pension age. It is way cheaper than anything you can get in the UK and covers a GP service as well as hospital treatment as well as providing a quicker service than the NHS equivalent here. However, both systems here work fairly well and there is none of the nonsense about deifying the 'NHS' as we get in the UK. I suspect that doctors here are significantly more modestly paid than in the UK where the system still heavily favours the the staff compared to the customers.
Any idea how many others have private insurance? I’m trying to work out if 30% is an unusually high proportion.
I think the figure is probably accurate but it may include those who take out more modest deals than the 'full monty'. Of course many European countries have mixed systems of various hues and it is only in the UK that the whole thing is so highly politicised as far as I can see. Also viewed from the outside the UK system is not nearly so venerated as most other countries seem to get rather better outcomes.

As far as I can tell from my own experience, the only two countries in the developed world where healthcare is a political issue are the UK and the USA. For their own very different reasons, both of those systems are sub-optimal.

foxinsoxuk · November 2017

Monksfield said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?
On a computer from his office.......
Just being theoritcal here, if say you got hold of the e-mail list for all Labour* MPs and sent them an e-mail with an attachment of some "extreme" (but legal) porn - it would then be accurate to say that (despite them all being innocent parties) "extreme" porn was found on all Labour MPs computers.

I don't quite see how that scenario would allow me to board the outrage bus and call for all Labour MPs to resign.

We have no context at all to the claims in the Sunday Times.

*other parties are available

Talking about the Outrage bus, Mark, I seem to remember you coming over all politically self righteous about the Bex Bailey case the other day. Meanwhile...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41857807

Yes, it shows the folly of trying to make this a partisan issue. Unlike Bex Bailey this one was reported immediately to the police, then later to the party, so stands a much better chance of successful prosecution.

SouthamObserver · November 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

A very interesting article, Mr. Wild, which does point a rather combustible picture.

If separatist parties win a majority and call for/confirm [as you like] independence, what then?

Crisis!!! Rajoy has taken a huge gamble.

One thing to note is that the Spanish state now has full access to records of all internal Catalan government records. I suspect that these may turn out to show that a lot of money has been diverted from whwere it was nominally supposed to be spent to propagandising for independence. Many of the big independence movements receive most of their funding from the Generalitat, the Catalan government has maintained a large network of "foreign" embassies and so on. If this info is used wisely, it may be effective in driving votes. IN other words, Catalonia is being squeezed not by Madrid, but by huge spending on advocating independence - I suspect that is one thing Rajoy is counting on.

Morris_Dancer · November 2017

Mr. Observer, sounds like the time has come for a pair of underpants and a couple of pencils.

NickPalmer · November 2017

Many thanks for the nuanced article, Joff - very interesting. A question is whether autonomy will really lance the boil, as it didn't in Scotland. Perhaps linking a generous autonomy package with the option of a referendum on independence but requiring a 55% vote to be valid?

Alistair · November 2017

daodao said:
The solution regarding the Dec 21st election is simple. All candidates should be required to swear an allegiance to the indivisible united Kingdom of Spain to be allowed to stand. The imprisoned rebels shouldn't be allowed to be candidates. Alternatively, use the criterion employed at Westminster for swearing in elected representatives, which self-excludes SF.

Rajoy is dealing with the situation in a measured way, in accordance with the law. The Spanish government hasn't gone as far as it could. Puidgemont should remember the fate of his predecessor Companys in 1940. Hopefully, there won't be a need to resort to methods used by the Generalissimo, but they were effective.

Where did the law say people wanting to vote should be beaten?

Sean_F · November 2017

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?
On a computer from his office.......

How many employers would be bothered by a claim by someone with a grudge that they'd seen porn on an employee's computer nine years ago?

SouthamObserver · November 2017

felix said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

swing_voter said:
I think it is easy to overstate the wealth of Catalonia, whilst I would agree it has more wealth than most Spanish regions, it is does not enjoy per capita incomes much higher than the EU average. Its cities and towns have serious levels of youth unemployment, homelessness and poverty, this idea it will reinvent itself as the Singapore of the Med just does not stand, and there is little strategy as to how it will succeed in the immediate term.

Spain's democracy is being tested, but is stronger than commentators in Northern Europe give it credit for...the challenge for the unionist parties are to spell the benefits of Spain to a young, idealistic and passionate base of support for separatism.
Surely the most relevant comparator is the rest of Spain and in that respect it is well above average.

The important point, however, is that it achieves that average as a deeply integrated part of the Spanish economy. It is not like Scotland arguably was at peak north sea oil where it had a large scale international commodity to sell. It is more like Scotland is now where the vast bulk of our exports go to rUK and it is totally dependent on uninhibited access to that market.

Could Catalonia be an independent country? Probably, but it would need excellent relationships with its largest customers in rSpain and some access to the EU. It is likely that country would be poorer than Catalonia is now for a significant period of time.
PBers may enjoy this interactive tool for looking at the relative economic performance of Catalonia vs other European regions:

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/927436850956066816

Catalonia is a little above the European average, similar to the SE England (ex London) region. I suspect that these figures are distorted by where corporate HQs are located. Madrid is the wealthiest Spanish region, and as a general rule the capital is the wealthiest place in most of European countries. Corporate HQs in Barcelona may have the same effect.
Over a thousand have left in the past few weeks.

Over 2,000 now.

OldKingCole · November 2017

Charles said:

OldKingCole said:
Thanks for that. I don’t know much about Spanish history, apart from such figures as Philip II and Franco, and of course the Armada, but I get the impression that much at least of Catalonia was never part of Moorish Spain.
Hence there’s always been a sense of separation about the area.

So Joff’s article has filled in quite a few gaps and encouraged me to find out more.
Spain was created from the Union of Two Crowns : the King of Castile (Ferdinand) married the Queen of Aragon (which had previously combined with the County of Barcelona).

The promise was it would be a dual monarchy but almost immediately the Castillians started imposing their will and ignoring Aragonese complaints and rights

Hmm. Got that impression. “Twas notable too, that Columbus sailed before the last Moorish king left Andulus.

SouthamObserver · November 2017

NickPalmer said:
Many thanks for the nuanced article, Joff - very interesting. A question is whether autonomy will really lance the boil, as it didn't in Scotland. Perhaps linking a generous autonomy package with the option of a referendum on independence but requiring a 55% vote to be valid?

We make a big mistake in equating Catalonia with Scotland and for seeing the same motives behind the independence movements. Scotland was an independent country for most of its history. Catalonia has never been one. There is also none of the feeling about moving apart politically. Before separation became an issue the Catalans tended to veer between centre right and centre left, just like the rest of Spain. The big issues in Catalonia are cultural/linguistic and money. ON the former Catalonia has as much freedom as it would ever have as an independent country. On the latter, the issue is about how much money goes to Madrid. If that is solved, that would be the big concession from the Spanish state. In return, the constitution would remain as it is with regards to Spain's indivisibility. I think that would work. As I say, separation has not been a big deal until very recently. Before that Catalonia punched well above its weight in national politics. It could easily do so again.

tlg86 · November 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

Monksfield said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?
On a computer from his office.......
Just being theoritcal here, if say you got hold of the e-mail list for all Labour* MPs and sent them an e-mail with an attachment of some "extreme" (but legal) porn - it would then be accurate to say that (despite them all being innocent parties) "extreme" porn was found on all Labour MPs computers.

I don't quite see how that scenario would allow me to board the outrage bus and call for all Labour MPs to resign.

We have no context at all to the claims in the Sunday Times.

*other parties are available

Talking about the Outrage bus, Mark, I seem to remember you coming over all politically self righteous about the Bex Bailey case the other day. Meanwhile...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41857807
Yes, it shows the folly of trying to make this a partisan issue. Unlike Bex Bailey this one was reported immediately to the police, then later to the party, so stands a much better chance of successful prosecution.

Why didn't these girls go to the police? I can understand going to an employer if you're unhappy with the way your being treated by someone, but rape? Surely you go straight to the police?

kle4 · November 2017

Hard to see a resolution if the elections return pretty much the status quo, though I suppose any rise for the unionist parties, who surely will be motivated as all hell, would at least dent the separatists.

Unless the polling is hiding a hidden additional indy surge, a big separatist majority is not happening though ,right? In which case what happens? Keep declaring udi and being arrested?

Recidivist · November 2017

Alistair said:

daodao said:
The solution regarding the Dec 21st election is simple. All candidates should be required to swear an allegiance to the indivisible united Kingdom of Spain to be allowed to stand. The imprisoned rebels shouldn't be allowed to be candidates. Alternatively, use the criterion employed at Westminster for swearing in elected representatives, which self-excludes SF.

Rajoy is dealing with the situation in a measured way, in accordance with the law. The Spanish government hasn't gone as far as it could. Puidgemont should remember the fate of his predecessor Companys in 1940. Hopefully, there won't be a need to resort to methods used by the Generalissimo, but they were effective.
Where did the law say people wanting to vote should be beaten?

Obviously they shouldn't, but looking at some recent results I can think of few countries where the voters deserved a beating afterwards.

SouthamObserver · November 2017

As if by magic, El Pais has the latest Spanish opinion poll. Big falls for PP and Podemos, big jump for Ciudadanos, smaller one for PSOE:

https://twitter.com/thespainreport/status/927450509711200256

NickPalmer · November 2017

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?
On a computer from his office.......
Just being theoritcal here, if say you got hold of the e-mail list for all Labour* MPs and sent them an e-mail with an attachment of some "extreme" (but legal) porn - it would then be accurate to say that (despite them all being innocent parties) "extreme" porn was found on all Labour MPs computers.

I don't quite see how that scenario would allow me to board the outrage bus and call for all Labour MPs to resign.

We have no context at all to the claims in the Sunday Times.

*other parties are available

On a technical point, opening attachments from unknown recipients is stupid. But lots of people do, I agree.

The main thing is that Green has as I understand it gone to the wire to say there was definitely no porn on the computers and the accuser is a liar. I think that's unwise - I'm a former computer professional and I would never knowingly download porn or anything else I didn't feel confident about, but can I swear there isn't any in some file that I thought was innocent? Not really. And if I was asked about a computer 9 years ago, I wouldn't have a clue. I think he'd have been wiser to say that as far as he knew there wasn't and he'd certainly not downloaded any. But the whole case is a bit puzzling and my comments may be ill-informed.

MarqueeMark · November 2017

Monksfield said:

Talking about the Outrage bus, Mark, I seem to remember you coming over all politically self righteous about the Bex Bailey case the other day. Meanwhile...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41857807

I was making the point about lack of equivalence between the hand on the knee --> huge coverage, concealed rape --> not so much. I have no problem with allegations being taken seriously, concerning all parties. I'm not such a party stooge that I will forgive all my own party's failings.

Let's have them all out in the light. But reserve judgement until you have the proper context. As I've just suggested, someone who is in receipt of an e-mail with porn as an attachment may have invited it as part of a correspondence - or be the wholly innocent victim. Similarly, a man being "flashed" by a man may be an innocent victim in the park, an innocent straight victim of a clumsy gay pass, an innocent gay victim of a clumsy gay pass - or a former gay lover having mis-read signals giving a clumsy reminder of what his former lover is missing. A ten word synopsis of an event could have 180 degree different responses if you were in receipt of all the circumstances.

No allegation of rape should ever be countered by "think of the harm to the Party/your career...." I'm much happier for the full story to be considered (by a newly appointed Westminster Ombudsman, or Plod if sufficiently serious) than for it to be hushed up by any party because it is embarrasing for that party. Although, because it is easy not to get the context initially, I would say that such allegations should not be made public until the case is made. Allegations are great news - as we are witnessing - but findings of innocence much less so.

As an aside, it is going to require a sea-change in the way the Whips offices work for that to be fully embraced. The threat of a piece of dubious activity leaking to the press if a troublesome MP doesn't toe the party line is going to have to be stripped from their bag of tricks.

HYUFD · November 2017

Ultimately more autonomy for Catalonia is the answer, just as it was for Quebec and just as it is for Scotland.

However having blocked an official independence referendum, if pro independence parties win most seats in the Catalan regional elections in December then the Spanish government will have problems.

Theuniondivvie · November 2017

Poor. old separatists, cannae win (so to speak).
A comparatively wealthy piece of real estate wanting to control its own affairs after 40 years of indissoluble union is greedy, selfish & ungrateful, while a comparatively poor one wanting to control its own affairs after 300+ years of precious, precious union is mad, unrealistic & ungrateful (I suspect with the gradual uptick of the oil price we may soon be getting more of the former than the latter up here). What we can be sure of is that a desire for self determination and not to have politics that you haven't voted for imposed upon you are VERY BAD THINGS INDEED.

I'd originally thought this pic was a photoshop, but it appears not.

http://tinyurl.com/yblnsaes

PP, definitely not heirs to Franco.

PeterC · November 2017

tlg86 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Monksfield said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?
On a computer from his office.......
Just being theoritcal here, if say you got hold of the e-mail list for all Labour* MPs and sent them an e-mail with an attachment of some "extreme" (but legal) porn - it would then be accurate to say that (despite them all being innocent parties) "extreme" porn was found on all Labour MPs computers.

I don't quite see how that scenario would allow me to board the outrage bus and call for all Labour MPs to resign.

We have no context at all to the claims in the Sunday Times.

*other parties are available

Talking about the Outrage bus, Mark, I seem to remember you coming over all politically self righteous about the Bex Bailey case the other day. Meanwhile...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41857807
Yes, it shows the folly of trying to make this a partisan issue. Unlike Bex Bailey this one was reported immediately to the police, then later to the party, so stands a much better chance of successful prosecution.
Why didn't these girls go to the police? I can understand going to an employer if you're unhappy with the way your being treated by someone, but rape? Surely you go straight to the police?

I imagine it is because there are no witnesses and no evidence, making a successful prosecution unlikely. Even if the matter were to come to court victims might fear that their reputations might get trashed by the defence. Depsite that you are right - rape must be reported otherwise there will be little hope of progress.

kle4 · November 2017

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?
On a computer from his office.......
Just being theoritcal here, if say you got hold of the e-mail list for all Labour* MPs and sent them an e-mail with an attachment of some "extreme" (but legal) porn - it would then be accurate to say that (despite them all being innocent parties) "extreme" porn was found on all Labour MPs computers.

I don't quite see how that scenario would allow me to board the outrage bus and call for all Labour MPs to resign.

We have no context at all to the claims in the Sunday Times.

*other parties are available

On a technical point, opening attachments from unknown recipients is stupid. But lots of people do, I agree.

The main thing is that Green has as I understand it gone to the wire to say there was definitely no porn on the computers and the accuser is a liar. I think that's unwise - I'm a former computer professional and I would never knowingly download porn or anything else I didn't feel confident about, but can I swear there isn't any in some file that I thought was innocent? Not really. And if I was asked about a computer 9 years ago, I wouldn't have a clue. I think he'd have been wiser to say that as far as he knew there wasn't and he'd certainly not downloaded any. But the whole case is a bit puzzling and my comments may be ill-informed.

I think while opponents might make hay with how definitive his language was, if it turns out it was a random file, or accidental download situation, most people would forgive the slight liberty. Particularly when reminded the main accuser provably has an axe to grind and is a self confessed liar.

HYUFD · November 2017

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:
Is there any evidence that "the dwindling numbers who back PP" are in fact dwindling or that Joff's desire for the PP to go is supported by the majority in Spain? A casual look around the internet this morning didn't produce any evidence one way or another but it may be that I would need to be looking at Spanish speaking sites. A colleague of mine who reads El Pais indicates that the somewhat hard line taken by Rajoy has been quite popular in the rest of Spain. This article gives an idea of the thinking: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/02/inenglish/1509615743_511993.html

"The worst part of all of this is the condescending tone with which they orate on our “young” democracy, its supposed problems assimilating Francoism and, once again, the racist insistence in the temperamental character of the Spanish, and – here it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry – the nonsense that in our language the term “compromise” does not exist or has a shameful character, something that, of course, explains everything. It’s cheap orientalism applied to the south of Europe."

My guess is that the election in December will not happen, especially if there is any repeat of the polling of the last few days.

Almost all national opinion polls in Spain show PP support falling:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

Though they still have the PP ahead.

rottenborough · November 2017

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?
On a computer from his office.......
Just being theoritcal here, if say you got hold of the e-mail list for all Labour* MPs and sent them an e-mail with an attachment of some "extreme" (but legal) porn - it would then be accurate to say that (despite them all being innocent parties) "extreme" porn was found on all Labour MPs computers.

I don't quite see how that scenario would allow me to board the outrage bus and call for all Labour MPs to resign.

We have no context at all to the claims in the Sunday Times.

*other parties are available

On a technical point, opening attachments from unknown recipients is stupid. But lots of people do, I agree.

The main thing is that Green has as I understand it gone to the wire to say there was definitely no porn on the computers and the accuser is a liar. I think that's unwise - I'm a former computer professional and I would never knowingly download porn or anything else I didn't feel confident about, but can I swear there isn't any in some file that I thought was innocent? Not really. And if I was asked about a computer 9 years ago, I wouldn't have a clue. I think he'd have been wiser to say that as far as he knew there wasn't and he'd certainly not downloaded any. But the whole case is a bit puzzling and my comments may be ill-informed.
I think while opponents might make hay with how definitive his language was, if it turns out it was a random file, or accidental download situation, most people would forgive the slight liberty. Particularly when reminded the main accuser provably has an axe to grind and is a self confessed liar.

How are we ever going to know? Does this PC even exist anymore?

NickPalmer · November 2017

SouthamObserver said:

We make a big mistake in equating Catalonia with Scotland and for seeing the same motives behind the independence movements. Scotland was an independent country for most of its history. Catalonia has never been one. There is also none of the feeling about moving apart politically. Before separation became an issue the Catalans tended to veer between centre right and centre left, just like the rest of Spain. The big issues in Catalonia are cultural/linguistic and money. ON the former Catalonia has as much freedom as it would ever have as an independent country. On the latter, the issue is about how much money goes to Madrid. If that is solved, that would be the big concession from the Spanish state. In return, the constitution would remain as it is with regards to Spain's indivisibility. I think that would work. As I say, separation has not been a big deal until very recently. Before that Catalonia punched well above its weight in national politics. It could easily do so again.

Also very interesting - thanks.

In general the world needs a greater range of models for autonomy - this sort of "freedom or death!" vs "indivisibility of our nation!" stuff feels antiquated in a world where nobody really fully controls their destiny, yet still powerful.

tlg86 · November 2017

PeterC said:

tlg86 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Monksfield said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?
On a computer from his office.......
Just being theoritcal here, if say you got hold of the e-mail list for all Labour* MPs and sent them an e-mail with an attachment of some "extreme" (but legal) porn - it would then be accurate to say that (despite them all being innocent parties) "extreme" porn was found on all Labour MPs computers.

I don't quite see how that scenario would allow me to board the outrage bus and call for all Labour MPs to resign.

We have no context at all to the claims in the Sunday Times.

*other parties are available

Talking about the Outrage bus, Mark, I seem to remember you coming over all politically self righteous about the Bex Bailey case the other day. Meanwhile...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41857807
Yes, it shows the folly of trying to make this a partisan issue. Unlike Bex Bailey this one was reported immediately to the police, then later to the party, so stands a much better chance of successful prosecution.
Why didn't these girls go to the police? I can understand going to an employer if you're unhappy with the way your being treated by someone, but rape? Surely you go straight to the police?
I imagine it is because there are no witnesses and no evidence, making a successful prosecution unlikely. Even if the matter were to come to court victims might fear that their reputations might get trashed by the defence. Depsite that you are right - rape must be reported otherwise there will be little hope of progress.

But isn't that usually the case with rape anyway? It probably says more about the political environment that these girls didn't want to rock the boat by reporting it to the police than the fact that they might have been victims of rape.

Cyclefree · November 2017

@SO: thank you very much for an interesting article.

CarlottaVance · November 2017

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?
On a computer from his office.......
How many employers would be bothered by a claim by someone with a grudge that they'd seen porn on an employee's computer nine years ago?

Let alone a claim from someone who was let go for incompetence......I can't help but think things like Operation Sanctuary are many orders of magnitude more important:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-40879427

another_richard · November 2017

Thanks SO for a very interesting read.

Roger · November 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

swing_voter said:
I think it is easy to overstate the wealth of Catalonia, whilst I would agree it has more wealth than most Spanish regions, it is does not enjoy per capita incomes much higher than the EU average. Its cities and towns have serious levels of youth unemployment, homelessness and poverty, this idea it will reinvent itself as the Singapore of the Med just does not stand, and there is little strategy as to how it will succeed in the immediate term.

Spain's democracy is being tested, but is stronger than commentators in Northern Europe give it credit for...the challenge for the unionist parties are to spell the benefits of Spain to a young, idealistic and passionate base of support for separatism.
Surely the most relevant comparator is the rest of Spain and in that respect it is well above average.

The important point, however, is that it achieves that average as a deeply integrated part of the Spanish economy. It is not like Scotland arguably was at peak north sea oil where it had a large scale international commodity to sell. It is more like Scotland is now where the vast bulk of our exports go to rUK and it is totally dependent on uninhibited access to that market.

Could Catalonia be an independent country? Probably, but it would need excellent relationships with its largest customers in rSpain and some access to the EU. It is likely that country would be poorer than Catalonia is now for a significant period of time.
PBers may enjoy this interactive tool for looking at the relative economic performance of Catalonia vs other European regions:

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/927436850956066816

Catalonia is a little above the European average, similar to the SE England (ex London) region. I suspect that these figures are distorted by where corporate HQs are located. Madrid is the wealthiest Spanish region, and as a general rule the capital is the wealthiest place in most of European countries. Corporate HQs in Barcelona may have the same effect.

Really interesting. Beyond Spain.... UK and France level pegging Germany and the Scandinavian countries well out in front

another_richard · November 2017

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?
On a computer from his office.......
Just being theoritcal here, if say you got hold of the e-mail list for all Labour* MPs and sent them an e-mail with an attachment of some "extreme" (but legal) porn - it would then be accurate to say that (despite them all being innocent parties) "extreme" porn was found on all Labour MPs computers.

I don't quite see how that scenario would allow me to board the outrage bus and call for all Labour MPs to resign.

We have no context at all to the claims in the Sunday Times.

*other parties are available

On a technical point, opening attachments from unknown recipients is stupid. But lots of people do, I agree.

The main thing is that Green has as I understand it gone to the wire to say there was definitely no porn on the computers and the accuser is a liar. I think that's unwise - I'm a former computer professional and I would never knowingly download porn or anything else I didn't feel confident about, but can I swear there isn't any in some file that I thought was innocent? Not really. And if I was asked about a computer 9 years ago, I wouldn't have a clue. I think he'd have been wiser to say that as far as he knew there wasn't and he'd certainly not downloaded any. But the whole case is a bit puzzling and my comments may be ill-informed.
I think while opponents might make hay with how definitive his language was, if it turns out it was a random file, or accidental download situation, most people would forgive the slight liberty. Particularly when reminded the main accuser provably has an axe to grind and is a self confessed liar.

Given the Andrew Mitchell case its not beyond the bounds of possibility that the plods downloaded porn onto the computer in order to make Green look bad.

CarlottaVance · November 2017

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?
On a computer from his office.......
Just being theoritcal here, if say you got hold of the e-mail list for all Labour* MPs and sent them an e-mail with an attachment of some "extreme" (but legal) porn - it would then be accurate to say that (despite them all being innocent parties) "extreme" porn was found on all Labour MPs computers.

I don't quite see how that scenario would allow me to board the outrage bus and call for all Labour MPs to resign.

We have no context at all to the claims in the Sunday Times.

*other parties are available

The main thing is that Green has as I understand it gone to the wire to say there was definitely no porn on the computers and the accuser is a liar

As I have read it the claim is that there was porn on Green's 'personal' computer ('legal' but 'extreme' - a definition which did not exist in law at the time) while Green's point is that they were all 'office' computers and none were assigned to him personally - so by definition any claim that porn was found on 'his' computer is a lie.

We know the ex-officer involved is incompetent - possibly he is confused on the point?

SouthamObserver · November 2017

The one clear beneficiary from the Catalan crisis in Spain seems to be the King.

https://twitter.com/CharlesTPowell/status/927270680026124293

RobD · November 2017

SouthamObserver said:
The one clear beneficiary from the Catalan crisis in Spain seems to be the King.

https://twitter.com/CharlesTPowell/status/927270680026124293

7.2% approval?

CarlottaVance · November 2017

Another excellent briefing from the HoC Library on the EEA:\\

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8129

The EEA includes the EU Member States plus three countries which are not in the EU: Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. The EEA essentially extends the EU single market to those three non-EU countries. Membership of the EEA has been suggested as a possible option for the UK after Brexit. The Government has ruled this out, however.

Those in favour of the EEA option argue that continued membership of the single market would bring economic benefits as a result of favourable access to the EU market. However, EEA membership also involves a range of obligations including free movement of people, financial contributions to the EU and accepting EU rules with no direct say over them.

Sean_F · November 2017

another_richard said:

kle4 said:

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:
Very good piece Joff, thanks for your informed writing on what’s probably the biggest story in Europe right now.
The biggest story in Europe a revolution in Spain? Didn't you hear that pornography might have been found on Damien Green's computer ten years ago?
On a computer from his office.......
Just being theoritcal here, if say you got hold of the e-mail list for all Labour* MPs and sent them an e-mail with an attachment of some "extreme" (but legal) porn - it would then be accurate to say that (despite them all being innocent parties) "extreme" porn was found on all Labour MPs computers.

I don't quite see how that scenario would allow me to board the outrage bus and call for all Labour MPs to resign.

We have no context at all to the claims in the Sunday Times.

*other parties are available

On a technical point, opening attachments from unknown recipients is stupid. But lots of people do, I agree.

The main thing is that Green has as I understand it gone to the wire to say there was definitely no porn on the computers and the accuser is a liar. I think that's unwise - I'm a former computer professional and I would never knowingly download porn or anything else I didn't feel confident about, but can I swear there isn't any in some file that I thought was innocent? Not really. And if I was asked about a computer 9 years ago, I wouldn't have a clue. I think he'd have been wiser to say that as far as he knew there wasn't and he'd certainly not downloaded any. But the whole case is a bit puzzling and my comments may be ill-informed.
I think while opponents might make hay with how definitive his language was, if it turns out it was a random file, or accidental download situation, most people would forgive the slight liberty. Particularly when reminded the main accuser provably has an axe to grind and is a self confessed liar.
Given the Andrew Mitchell case its not beyond the bounds of possibility that the plods downloaded porn onto the computer in order to make Green look bad.

A point which had also occurred to me.

swing_voter · November 2017

Roger said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

swing_voter said:
I think it is easy to overstate the wealth of Catalonia, whilst I would agree it has more wealth than most Spanish regions, it is does not enjoy per capita incomes much higher than the EU average. Its cities and towns have serious levels of youth unemployment, homelessness and poverty, this idea it will reinvent itself as the Singapore of the Med just does not stand, and there is little strategy as to how it will succeed in the immediate term.

Spain's democracy is being tested, but is stronger than commentators in Northern Europe give it credit for...the challenge for the unionist parties are to spell the benefits of Spain to a young, idealistic and passionate base of support for separatism.
Surely the most relevant comparator is the rest of Spain and in that respect it is well above average.

The important point, however, is that it achieves that average as a deeply integrated part of the Spanish economy. It is not like Scotland arguably was at peak north sea oil where it had a large scale international commodity to sell. It is more like Scotland is now where the vast bulk of our exports go to rUK and it is totally dependent on uninhibited access to that market.

Could Catalonia be an independent country? Probably, but it would need excellent relationships with its largest customers in rSpain and some access to the EU. It is likely that country would be poorer than Catalonia is now for a significant period of time.
PBers may enjoy this interactive tool for looking at the relative economic performance of Catalonia vs other European regions:

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/927436850956066816

Catalonia is a little above the European average, similar to the SE England (ex London) region. I suspect that these figures are distorted by where corporate HQs are located. Madrid is the wealthiest Spanish region, and as a general rule the capital is the wealthiest place in most of European countries. Corporate HQs in Barcelona may have the same effect.
Really interesting. Beyond Spain.... UK and France level pegging Germany and the Scandinavian countries well out in front

How much of this is skewed by the movement of Sterling and other European currencies against the Euro, how does it account for the 20%plus fall in sterling since BREXIT vote.

AlsoIndigo · November 2017

In other news. Just as the intelligence services have regular sallies against encryption because its something they can't control and that pisses them off, so the Department of Education is trotting out its periodic sally against Home Schooling for precisely the same reasons.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/11/05/home-schooling-loophole-sends-children-hands-extremists-ofsted/

Happily where I currently live the right to educate your children in whatever way you see fit is enshrined in the Constitution

TOPPING · November 2017

CarlottaVance said:
Another excellent briefing from the HoC Library on the EEA:\\

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8129

The EEA includes the EU Member States plus three countries which are not in the EU: Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. The EEA essentially extends the EU single market to those three non-EU countries. Membership of the EEA has been suggested as a possible option for the UK after Brexit. The Government has ruled this out, however.

Those in favour of the EEA option argue that continued membership of the single market would bring economic benefits as a result of favourable access to the EU market. However, EEA membership also involves a range of obligations including free movement of people, financial contributions to the EU and accepting EU rules with no direct say over them.

yeah good point. I remember clearly on the referendum ballot paper all those issues listed which we definitively voted against.

Morris_Dancer · November 2017

Mr. Indigo, if the purpose of education is to enlighten children and make them into adults fit for the workplace, then the merit of home schooling ought to be judged likewise. Some people just want to control.

As for extremism, it wasn't home-schooling that led to the Trojan Horse.

AlsoIndigo · November 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Indigo, if the purpose of education is to enlighten children and make them into adults fit for the workplace, then the merit of home schooling ought to be judged likewise. Some people just want to control.

As for extremism, it wasn't home-schooling that led to the Trojan Horse.

Besides which, how do you judge what is being taught in a home school ? Spot inspections and portfolios of work are like tax returns, they only tell you the bits people are doing that follow the rules. People are no more going to have extremist work on display or in their portfolio than they are going to include details of their questionable "tax-efficient investments" on their tax return.

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