David_Evershed said:

david_herdson said:

ydoethur said:

foxinsoxuk said:

In terms of A50 withdrawal, I cannot see it. It would require a second referendum, and that would require a further GE, and a party that favoured continuing membership to win. There simply is not enough time or will.

Indeed no, it took nearly 40 years for a party other than the Unionists to win a majority after 1906 while Labour were replacing the Liberals. If the only major national pro-European party - the Liberal Democrats - are to replace either Tories or Labour we're looking at one hell of an extension - potentially longer than our membership to date.

I agree with the rest of your post. No extension and no deal is a crash out, not anchange our minds.

Change can happen a lot faster when there's a sufficient prompt. Look at the rise of the SNP in Scotland, or the replacement of the Whigs by the Republicans in the US in the 1850s, for example. If Brexit does become a defining, cleavage issue, then inevitably there will end up being a pro-Brexit/Out party and a pro-Remain/Rejoin party. The Tories will be the former; who would be the latter is open to doubt. Labour would start as strong favourites, though the Corbyn factor complicates matters.

Surely the pro Remain parties are Lib Dems in England, SNP in Scotland and Welsh Nationalists in Wales.

foxinsoxuk said:

I hope all those opposing political correctness in judging Gove were equally indulgent of O'Mara...

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

rottenborough said:

"This suggests the Tories’ best chances of winning a majority at the next election lies in traditionally Labour seats where the Tories came close last time, such as Bishop Auckland, in the North East, which Labour has held since 1935

I am told Gavin Barwell, the PM’s chief of staff, is particularly convinced of this."


https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4784895/conservatives-brexit-james-forsyth-opinion/

Sounds plausible. Places which are still 99% white are probably most likely to be the best areas for the Tories in the future, to put it bluntly.

But areas with affordable housing and good communications should continue to trend Conservative.

SeanT said:

The author of Article 50 himself, a British bureaucrat, admitted that it was designed to be so one sided, and so awful for the potential quitter, that no sane country would ever use it.

Scott_P said:

SeanT said:

The author of Article 50 himself, a British bureaucrat, admitted that it was designed to be so one sided, and so awful for the potential quitter, that no sane country would ever use it.

He also said it is reversible, but apparently he doesn't know what he is talking about.

rottenborough said:

The wealthy are using equity release to try and avoid IHT:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/rising-house-prices-inheritance-tax-fuelling-middle-class-equity/

A loophole that Hammond will take a look at?

Sandpit said:

rottenborough said:

The wealthy are using equity release to try and avoid IHT:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/rising-house-prices-inheritance-tax-fuelling-middle-class-equity/

A loophole that Hammond will take a look at?

Why is spending your money when you’re alive a “loophole” that might need “looking at”?

IHT is the most pernicious of all taxes, I’d scrap it completely as part of a tax simplification program.

YellowSubmarine said:

Gove is a serving Cabinet Minister and former Justice Secretary and Lord Chancellor. He was making a joke about Rape and Rape victims. His joke was timed *during* an ongoing scandal and one which is in the process of hitting Westminster. He made his joke using language suggesting Rape victims lose their dignity. It was also a rather Meta joke as he was referring to the potential for ma!king Gaffes on the Today programme. It's was a fairly extraordinary thing to thing to say on National Radio and view joing about Rape and Rape victims is awful is perfectly reasonable.

That said I agree everyone will have forgotten about it tomorrow.

Pong said:

Sandpit said:

rottenborough said:

The wealthy are using equity release to try and avoid IHT:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/rising-house-prices-inheritance-tax-fuelling-middle-class-equity/

A loophole that Hammond will take a look at?

Why is spending your money when you’re alive a “loophole” that might need “looking at”?

IHT is the most pernicious of all taxes, I’d scrap it completely as part of a tax simplification program.

One option is to tax the recipient as normal income.

YellowSubmarine said:

The latest U Turn on LHA shows the bind the Tories are now in. Leveling down Housing Benefit entitlement for Social Housing tennants to Local Housing Allowance level was a typically unpleasant but politically astute stunt by Osborne. It wouldn't effect 80% of the country as usually RSL properties are much cheaper than the PRS. In the 20% of the country so poor and deprived that private rents are actually lower than Social Housing ones ... Well who cares about the deflationary impact and human misery caused by a whopping ' Bedroom Tax ' as nearly all those Seats vote Labour anyway. Osborne can look tough on Welfare and picket £0.5bn pa for deficit reduction.

But that was before the Referendum transmuted these deprived and usually very white communities in the Yeomanry of Agincourt via their Leave vote. So the Tories are shafted and had to U Turn. I'm not convinced myself. This was the strategy that was supposed to deliver a landslide in June and didn't. But seeing the Tories try to turn themselves into a sort of English DUP where they have to care about poor people as they move to identitarian politics will certainly be entertaining.

Scott_P said:

SeanT said:

The author of Article 50 himself, a British bureaucrat, admitted that it was designed to be so one sided, and so awful for the potential quitter, that no sane country would ever use it.

He also said it is reversible, but apparently he doesn't know what he is talking about.

Theuniondivvie said:

MJW said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MJW said:

I think the objection is that the joke made light of the alleged assaults as comparable to a harsh interview, and he also implied the victims lost their dignity by saying he hoped to escape with his intact. Right he apologised, although as ever people are fanning outrage way beyond a misplaced joke - in part no doubt as payback for the Tories giving Labour a savaging over Mr O'Mara.

There's a time and a place for slightly risky jokes that might upset some people or be taken the wrong way - one is among mates who know context, another is at a stand-up show people have paid to see your act and may want to be shocked or challenged. One isn't when you're a leading politician appearing on national radio. Some of the outrage is overblown, but right he apologised for acting like a bit of a prat, and we can all move on to more important stuff.

On the weekend that all sorts of rumours about what Westminster has been up to in the creepy old men stakes are swirling around, perhaps not top political smarts from the Gover.

The whole Today at 60 prog was a self-congratulatory, queasiness-making cake of smugness; Gove's joke was just the crappy cherry on the top.

Indeed. I think with current events politicians have to be extra sensitive and provide reassurance it's something they're going to take seriously. Over the next few days/weeks several alleged harassers are likely to be named and Westminster will face the same questions Hollywood and the media have been getting - why was this all treated as a bit of an open secret and even as a source of humour. Not the best look to be cracking a joke about it. You wouldn't have got very far in 2009 by making a joke about how much you could claim on expenses.

And Jezza making a speech later speaking out against "a culture where the abuse of women has often been accepted and normalised," including at Westminster. Corbyn Labour much more on top of the news cycle than the Maycons, who'd have thunk that a year ago?

Scott_P said:

MarqueeMark said:

Would you buy a second-hand Constitution from this man?

If the alternative was buying one from BoZo, hell yes!

MarqueeMark said:

somebody who has never even had the opportunity to demonstrate his drafting skills

Nigelb said:

Theuniondivvie said:

rottenborough said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MJW said:

I think the objection is that the joke made light of the alleged assaults as comparable to a harsh interview, and he also implied the victims lost their dignity by saying he hoped to escape with his intact. Right he apologised, although as ever people are fanning outrage way beyond a misplaced joke - in part no doubt as payback for the Tories giving Labour a savaging over Mr O'Mara.

There's a time and a place for slightly risky jokes that might upset some people or be taken the wrong way - one is among mates who know context, another is at a stand-up show people have paid to see your act and may want to be shocked or challenged. One isn't when you're a leading politician appearing on national radio. Some of the outrage is overblown, but right he apologised for acting like a bit of a prat, and we can all move on to more important stuff.

On the weekend that all sorts of rumours about what Westminster has been up to in the creepy old men stakes are swirling around, perhaps not top political smarts from the Gover.

The whole Today at 60 prog was a self-congratulatory, queasiness-making cake of smugness; Gove's joke was just the crappy cherry on the top.

You are Paul Hollywood and I claim my £5.

I ride a Ducati & fill my leathers more than I'd like, but there the similarity ends.

Are bathroom breaks so problematic ?

foxinsoxuk said:

Mortimer said:

Pong said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

The wealthy are using equity release to try and avoid IHT:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/rising-house-prices-inheritance-tax-fuelling-middle-class-equity/

A loophole that Hammond will take a look at?

No, as much of that equity release goes to fund deposits for their children to get on the housing ladder.

And price the kids without significant inheritances out of the housing market altogether.

F*ck the poor, vote Conservative

Outside of the South, housing is largely still affordable.

It's not as clear cut as you are astroturfing

It is also not clear that in these areas (inc Leics) that affordable housing benefits the Tories.

Largely housing outside the South has remained affordable because real incomes have been squeezed. The former may favour the Tories, but the latter does not.

Sandpit said:

MarqueeMark said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MJW said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MJW said:

I think the objection is that the joke made light of the alleged assaults as comparable to a harsh interview, and he also implied the victims lost their dignity by saying he hoped to escape with his intact. Right he apologised, although as ever people are fanning outrage way beyond a misplaced joke - in part no doubt as payback for the Tories giving Labour a savaging over Mr O'Mara.

There's a time and a place for slightly risky jokes that might upset some people or be taken the wrong way - one is among mates who know context, another is at a stand-up show people have paid to see your act and may want to be shocked or challenged. One isn't when you're a leading politician appearing on national radio. Some of the outrage is overblown, but right he apologised for acting like a bit of a prat, and we can all move on to more important stuff.

On the weekend that all sorts of rumours about what Westminster has been up to in the creepy old men stakes are swirling around, perhaps not top political smarts from the Gover.

The whole Today at 60 prog was a self-congratulatory, queasiness-making cake of smugness; Gove's joke was just the crappy cherry on the top.

Indeed. I think with current events politicians have to be extra sensitive and provide reassurance it's something they're going to take seriously. Over the next few days/weeks several alleged harassers are likely to be named and Westminster will face the same questions Hollywood and the media have been getting - why was this all treated as a bit of an open secret and even as a source of humour. Not the best look to be cracking a joke about it. You wouldn't have got very far in 2009 by making a joke about how much you could claim on expenses.

And Jezza making a speech later speaking out against "a culture where the abuse of women has often been accepted and normalised," including at Westminster. Corbyn Labour much more on top of the news cycle than the Maycons, who'd have thunk that a year ago?

Easier for him to make that speech with the MP for Sheffield Hallam currently not under the Labour Whip. If he is allowed to retake the Labour Whip in this Parliament, then it will all look like so much cant.

One assumes that if he’s making a speech today in advance of expected headlines tomorrow, he’s going to come down like the proverbial ton of bricks on any of his MPs named in the Sundays?

new thread

Stark_Dawning said:

Gove has become the Tories' Jared O'Mara.

Pong said:

Mortimer said:

Pong said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

The wealthy are using equity release to try and avoid IHT:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/rising-house-prices-inheritance-tax-fuelling-middle-class-equity/

A loophole that Hammond will take a look at?

No, as much of that equity release goes to fund deposits for their children to get on the housing ladder.

And price the kids without significant inheritances out of the housing market altogether.

F*ck the poor, vote Conservative

Outside of the South, housing is largely still affordable.

It's not as clear cut as you are astroturfing

I feel a little sorry for the tories who fooled themselves into believing their party cared about meritocracy. Y'know, getting on in life through your own efforts.

The client vote have the party by the balls.